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Safety Science
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ssci
The accident early warning system for iron and steel enterprises based
on combination weighting and Grey Prediction Model GM (1, 1)
Cuiping Li a,b, Jiexuan Qin a,b, Jiajie Li c,, Qian Hou d
a
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, No. 30 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100083, PR China
Ministry of Education, Key Laboratory of High Efficiency Mining and Safety for Metal Mines, University of Science and Technology Beijing, No. 30 Xueyuan Road, Haidian
District, Beijing 100083, PR China
c
Norman B. Keevil Institute of Mining Engineering, University of British Columbia, 517-6350 Stores Road, Vancouver, B.C. V6T 1Z4, Canada
d
China Association of Work Safety, No. 21 North Hepingli Road, Dongcheng District, Beijing 100713, PR China
b
a r t i c l e
i n f o
Article history:
Received 22 June 2015
Received in revised form 27 October 2015
Accepted 27 May 2016
Keywords:
Iron and steel enterprise
Risk early warning
Early warning index system
Combination weighting
GM (1, 1) early warning model
a b s t r a c t
In order to prevent the occurrence of accidents in iron and steel enterprises, it is essential to change the
risk management pattern from post-emergency response to hazard control and prevention. Based on the
characteristics of iron and steel enterprises, this paper investigates the early warning system for
accidents for iron and steel enterprises, aiming for the adoption of accident prevention and hazard control. An early warning index system and an early warning model were constructed based on production
types and accident statistics of the enterprises. On account of the factors that influence accidents, this
early warning index system contains 3 hierarchies with 5 composite indexes and 22 thematic indexes.
The indexes have been quantified, regularized, and their weights were determined using a combination
weighting method based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process and the Entropy Weight Method. The early
warning index model was established according to Grey System Theory GM (1, 1), and the comprehensive
early warning indexes were calculated by Multi-objective Linear Weighted Function. The thresholds were
then determined, the early warning levels were identified, and the early warning signals were output
accordingly. The feasibility and validity of the proposed early warning model was tested and verified
through its application in a functioning industrial plant.
2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
The iron and steel industry is one of the most basic and
important industries in China. It holds a pivotal strategic position
of supporting and promoting related industries within the national
economy. The production of crude steel in China has grown
continuously at a rate of 21.1% annually and has occupied first
place in worldwide production since the 21st century
(Worldsteel Association, 2015). However, steel production in China
is a high-risk industry since the process of production involves
many hazards, including high temperature and gas operations,
and poor working environments (Yang, 2010). Accidents in the iron
and steel industry have led to tremendous pain and loss for both
individuals and society. For example, 32 people died and 6 people
were injured when a ladle used to transport molten steel capsized
in an accident at a steel corporation in China on April 18th, 2007.
According to statistics, 2762 accidents in the iron and steel
Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: cpli@ustb.edu.cn (C. Li), fdqinq@163.com (J. Qin), jiajie.
li@alumni.ubc.ca (J. Li), houqian126@126.com (Q. Hou).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2016.05.015
0925-7535/ 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
20
Index
Index selection
selection
Early
warning
Early warning
index
index system
system
Index
Index quantification
quantification and
and
regularization
regularization
Index
weights determination
determination
Index weights
Model
Model structure
structure design
design
Early
Early warning
warning
model
model
Accidents
Accidents
early
early
warning
warning for
for
iron
iron and
and
steel
steel
enterprises
enterprises
Model
Model parameters
parameters determination
determination
Early
Early warning
warning signal
signal output
output
Fig. 1. The structure of accident risk early warning in iron and steel enterprises.
21
Fig. 2. Personal accidents in iron and steel enterprises in China from 2010 to 2012. Footnote: Minor accidents means one or more person are slightly injured and the treatment
time is less than 105 business days; Serious accidents means one or more person are seriously injured and the treatment time is more than 105 business days.
Fig. 3. Accidents in iron and steel enterprises in China classified by production processes.
accidents, accounting for 84%, 71% and 77% in 2010, 2011 and
2012, respectively. The next are defects in equipments and instruments, absence or defects in personal protective equipment, and
lack of safety training. Yearly comparisons show that accidents
caused by defects in equipments and facilities and absence or
defects in safety facilities have declined, while accidents caused
by defects in technologies and designs, and absence or defects in
safety regulations have increased. In addition, accidents caused
by the violation of operating regulations have continued to grow,
reflecting the importance of strictly controlling human factors.
2.2. Accident early warning index system
According to the statistical analysis of accidents in the iron and
steel industry, we developing the early warning index system, took
into account the basic factors influencing accidents, and the principles of index determination. The principles of index determination
included the comprehensiveness, the scientificity, a combination of
qualitative and quantitative analysis, and a combination of dynamics with statics (Hu, 2010).
2.2.1. Index selection
Generally, there are four main factors influencing accidents
including humans, objects, environment and management (Hou
et al., 2013). In iron and steel enterprises, the adverse environmental factors were mainly the result of chaotic management and the
unsafe behavior of people, both of which can be observed and rectified in a timely manner by troubleshooting the hidden dangers.
Therefore, the environmental factor was not treated as a separate
index factor in this study. The factor of hidden dangers reflects
22
Fig. 4. Accidents in iron and steel enterprises in China classified by accident types.
render the indexes with different properties comparable, it is necessary to quantify and regularize the indexes.
The regularization of early warning indexes includes both
dimensionless treatment and consistency treatment. Consistency
treatment functions to unify the types of indexes, assisting in the
assessment of the results in the same direction. We established
that the regularized indexes had a positive effect on the results.
As such, the greater the index values, the higher the degree of danger. Otherwise, the degree of danger is lower.
2.2.3. Index weights determination
AHP and Entropy Weight Method were combined to determine
the subjective weights and objective weights of the index, as well
as to combine the weights. The calculation process of AHP is shown
23
Thematic index
Humans (A1)
Objects (A2)
Individual index
Inspection rate of
special equipment (C1)
Inspection rate of safety
equipment (C2)
Management
(A4)
Accidents
(A5)
Regulation violation
(C3)
Gas danger (C4)
High temperature
equipment danger (C5)
Other equipment
danger (C6)
Working environment
danger (C7)
Other hidden danger
(C8)
rijk
where xijk is the jth thematic index of the ith composite index of the
kth evaluated object. r ijk is the standardized value of xijk .
The information entropy eij is then defined as follows,
eij
l
1 X
p ln pijk
ln l k1 ijk
,
pijk r ijk
l
X
r ijk
k1
g ij
1 eij
m
X
m
eij
j1
wij g ij
,
m
X
g ij
j1
wi uwoi 1 uwsi
i 1; 2; . . . n
where u is the coefficient, 0 6 u 6 1, which represents that the relative importance between the subjective weights and the objective
ones. In the paper, the value of u is 0.5.
The thematic index weights, as well as the composite index
weights were obtained as shown in Tables 2 and 3. It is obvious
from this information that the influential factors of accidents in
iron and steel enterprises, successively are human, objects,
24
m
X
i1
n
X
W i Iij W ij i 1 m; j 1 n
j1
where Iij is the score of the jth index in the ith index level, Wi is the
overall weight of the ith index level, Wij is the weight of the jth
index in the ith principle level, m is the number of the principle
levels, and n is the number of the indexes in the ith principle level.
2.3.2. Construction of the Grey Prediction Model GM (1, 1)
The Grey Prediction Model GM (1, 1) model was constructed
based on Grey System Theory, which is a first order differential
equation with one variable.
Step 1: Data Generation. The monthly work safety status
indexes were obtained from an iron and steel enterprise and are
set as the original sequence X(0), which is expressed by Eq. (8). To
enhance the inherent laws, an accumulative Eq. (9) is used to make
the original chaotic sequence X(0) into a regular one X(1) (see Eq.
(10)).
fX 1; X 2; . . . ; X ng
fX 1; X 2; . . . ; X ng
(
n
X
X 1; X 1 X 2; . . . ;
X 0 i
0
Subjective weights
Objective weights
Blend weights
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
0.38
0.17
0.14
0.20
0.11
0.49
0.31
0.10
0.08
0.01
0.44
0.24
0.12
0.14
0.06
dX =dt aX 1 u
10
i1
11
X 1 k 1 X 1 1 u=aeak u=a
1
^ BT B BT yn
a
13
1=2X 1 1 X 1 2
B
B @
Thematic index
Subjective weights
Objective weights
Blend weights
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7
B8
B9
B10
B11
B12
B13
B14
B15
B16
B17
B18
B19
B20
B21
B22
0.27
0.11
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.45
0.20
0.17
0.17
0.43
0.37
0.20
0.20
0.11
0.16
0.17
0.16
0.09
0.11
0.76
0.24
0.34
0.01
0.01
0.30
0.04
0.29
0.48
0.47
0.03
0.02
0.04
0.88
0.08
0.13
0.35
0.10
0.10
0.13
0.10
0.08
0.58
0.42
0.305
0.060
0.080
0.230
0.100
0.225
0.465
0.335
0.100
0.095
0.235
0.625
0.140
0.165
0.230
0.130
0.135
0.145
0.095
0.095
0.670
0.330
C
1A
14
1=2X n 1 X n 1
X 0 2
C
B 0
B X 3 C
C
yn B
C
B
A
@
0
X n
15
Bringing the resolved a and u into Eq. (12), the prediction values
of the generated sequence can be obtained and presented as the
following data column
^ 1 1; X
^ 1 2; . . . ; X
^ 1 kg
^ 1 fX
X
Table 2
Thematic index weights of the early warning index system.
12
^ as a parameter vector to be estimated. a
^ a , can be
Set a
u
^ is
solved by the least square method. The result of a
i1
1
Composite index
(
)
k
X
1
0
X ijk 1; 2; . . . n
X k
1
Table 3
Composite index weights of the early warning index system.
16
^ 0 k 1 X
^ 1 k 1 X
^ 1 k
X
17
Step 3: Accuracy Test. Generally, there are three tests for grey
prediction accuracy, including the residual test, the correlation test
and the posterior difference test. This paper adopts the posterior
difference test method by calculating the posteriori difference ratio
C (Eq. (18)) and the small error probability P (Eq. (19)).
q
S22 =S21
j < 0:6745S1 g
P Pfjqk q
18
19
25
Table 6
Original data from the iron and steel enterprise.
Accuracy level
Good
Qualified
Barely qualified
Disqualified
P0.95
P0.8
P0.7
<0.7
60.35
60.5
60.65
>0.65
Table 5
Early warning levels for accidents in iron and steel enterprises.
Early warning level
Safety
Attention
Warning
Danger
L 6 10
10 < L 6 15
15 < L 6 20
20 < L
^ 0 k X 0 k
qk X
q
n
1X
qk
n k1
20
21
S21
n
2
1X
X 0 k X
n k1
22
S22
n
1X
2
qk q
n k1
23
The index
value
Jan,
2013
Feb,
2013
Mar,
2013
Apr,
2013
May,
2013
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7
B8
B9
B10
B11
B12
B13
B14
B15
B16
B17
B18
B19
B20
B21
B22
L
7.12
2.72
3.49
4.68
8
4.77
2.08
1
2
1
206
1
29
1
23.5
1
1
3
2
1
0
0
17.83
7.12
2.72
3.49
4.68
8
4.77
2.18
1
1
0
92
1
13
1
23.5
1
1
1
2
2
2
1
15.73
7.12
2.72
3.49
4.68
8
4.77
2.18
1
1
0
135
1
32
1
23.5
1
1
1
6
1
0
0
14.90
7.12
2.72
3.49
4.68
8
4.77
2.18
1
2
0
218
1
50
1
23.63
1
1
1
4
15
0
0
15.86
7.12
2.72
3.49
4.68
8
4.77
2.18
1
2
0
166
1
31
1
23.77
1
1
1
3
1
0
0
16.96
24
X 1 k 1 479:24e0:03103k 461:414
25
Table 7
Predicted results of the early warning model.
3. Results
Jan,
2013
Feb,
2013
Mar,
2013
Apr,
2013
May,
2013
Comprehensive work
safety status index
Comprehensive early
warning index
Residual q(k)
17.83
15.73
14.90
15.86
16.96
17.83
15.11
15.58
16.07
16.60
0.62
0.68
0.21
0.36
0.44
0.8
In order to test and verify the early warning model, this paper
performed a case study by making use of actual data from an iron
and steel enterprise. Based on index data from February, March,
April, and May 2013, the comprehensive work safety status index
was calculated by Eq. (7) and then used as the original data
26
May 2013. Both the actual data (comprehensive work safety status
indexes) and the predicted data (comprehensive early warning
index) are presented in Fig. 7.
4. Discussion
From May to October 2011, the comprehensive work safety status indices of the enterprise kept growing steadily, and the work
safety situation was quite serious. The comprehensive early warning index curve was consistent with the comprehensive work
safety status index curve, but the values were higher, as shown
in Fig. 7. During this period, the local average temperature was
29.1 C. Adverse environmental factors, such as high temperatures,
high humidity, and continuous rain, can cause fatigue, poor mental
state, and lack of concentration in personnel, and can result in
accidents. Thus, the actual comprehensive work safety status index
value is quite high. It was also during this period that early warning work was commenced, and the enterprise adopted some measures to coordinate with the project. It is for this reason that the
actual values of the comprehensive work safety status index are
smaller than perdicted.
Beginning in October 2011, the enterprises managers devoted
greater effort towards improving their safety status, including
through enhancing the intensity of checking and creating rules
and procedures regarding various hidden dangers, increasing their
financial investment towards work safety, and strengthening
safety training for staff. The measures they undertook increased
rectification completion rates and gradually formed a normalized
state. As such, the comprehensive work safety status index values
were gradually decreased. As the early warning index values are
based on the original data of the former four months, the early
warning index values are higher than the actual ones. Thus, the
comprehensive early warning index curve appears to have an
inconsistent trend with the comprehensive work safety status
index curve.
From January 2012 to December 2012, some of the enterprises
production lines were shut down due to the international financial
crisis. The hidden dangers reduced accordingly. The trend of the
comprehensive early warning index curve and the comprehensive
work safety status index curve were relative consistent. After January 2013, the production lines were gradually resumed, and this
was accompanied by increasing employee turnover rate in workplace and malfunctions in some part of the equipment, which lead
to a transient increase in the comprehensive early warning index
Acknowledgements
The research presented in this paper was supported by the
National Natural Science Foundation of China (51174032), the
Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University (NCET10-0225) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central
Universities (FRF-TP-09-001A).
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