ANALISIS SENSITIVITAS

BUDIANI FITRIA ENDRAWATI, S.T.P., M.T

INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI KALIMANTAN

ANALISIS SENSITIVITAS
Mengetahui sejauh mana dampak parameter-parameter investasi yang telah
ditetapkan sebelumnya boleh berubah karena adanya faktor situasi dan kondisi
selama umur investasi sehingga perubahan tersebut hasilnya akan berpengaruh
secara signifikan pada keputusan yang telah diambil.
Parameter investasi yang memerlukan analisis sensitivitas :
Investasi
Benefit / Pendapatan
Biaya / Pengeluaran
Suku Bunga

BUDIANI FITRIA ENDRAWATI, STP, MT

PROSEDUR ANALISIS SENSITIVITAS

1. Menentukan parameter dari bunga, yang kemungkinan nilainya berbeda dari
diperkirakan
2. Pilih rentang kemungkinan dan kenaikan variasi untuk setiap parameter
3. Pilih ukuran yang digunakan
4. Hitung hasil untuk setiap parameter
5. Untuk mendapatkan hasil yang lebih baik, tampilkan grafik perbandingan
antara parameter yang digunakan dengan ukuran yang digunakan

BUDIANI FITRIA ENDRAWATI, STP, MT

PENGHITUNGAN

Present Worth

Annual Worth

Future Worth

Benefit Cost
Analysis

BUDIANI FITRIA ENDRAWATI, STP, MT

EXPECTED VALUE (NILAI HARAPAN)

.

i=m

E (X) = X i P(X i )
i =1

dimana :
X i = variabel

P (X i ) = probabilitas

Probabilitas :
i=m

P(X ) = 1
i =1

BUDIANI FITRIA ENDRAWATI, STP, MT

CONTOH SOAL
There are many government incentives to become more energy-efficient.
Installing solar panels on homes, business buildings, and multiple-family
dwellings is one of them. The owner pays a portion of the total installation costs,
and the government agency pays the rest. Nichole works for the Department of
Energy and is responsible for approving solar panel incentive payouts. She has
exceeded the annual budgeted amount of $50 million per year in each of the
previous 2 years. Disappointed with this situation, Nichole and her boss decided
to collect data to determine what size increase in annual budget the incentive
program needs in the future. Over the last 36 months, the amount of average
monthly payout and number of months are shown in Table. She categorized by
level the monthly averages according to her experience with the program.
Provided the same pattern continues, what is the expected value of the dollar
increase in annual budget that is needed to meet the requests?

BUDIANI FITRIA ENDRAWATI, STP, MT

Solar Panel Incentive Payouts

Level

Average Payout,
$ Million per Month

Months Over Past 3 Years

Very High

6,5

15

High

4,7

10

Moderate

3,2

Low

2,9

BUDIANI FITRIA ENDRAWATI, STP, MT

TUGAS KELAS
Nationwide income from monthly sales data (rounded to the nearest $100,000) of
Stay Flat vacuum hold-down tables for last year is shown below. Determine the
expected value of the monthly income, if economic conditions remain the same.
Income, $ per Month

Number of Months

500.000

600.000

700.000

800.000

900.000

BUDIANI FITRIA ENDRAWATI, STP, MT