6 Future Prognosis

In this section, future technologies that are likely to be commercialised in next

few years and could be integrated within the WSC competition framework, will be
discussed. These technologies can be classified into two categories: ones that
are currently available but not yet commercialised, and ones that are currently
still in the development phase but with high potential for commercialisation in
the future. Both of these will be discussed and tied in with the current market
trends of the SEV market.

6.1 Market Trends

Along with the issue of lower efficiency of the available solar cell technology,
storing the excessive generated electricity is also a major issue. The cost of
batteries is one of the major hurdles preventing widespread adoption and use of
SEVs. Battery costs are expected to decrease to about US$200 per kWh by 2020.
As shown in figure 6.1, cost prediction of the Li-ion batteries have reduced
dramatically over the past few years from US$1000 per kWh in 2008 to about
US$400 per kWh as of today (Muenzel et al. 2014).

Figure 1.1: Cost predictions of Li-ion batteries (Muenzel et al. 2014)

The reduction in cost of batteries will allow SEVs to be more economically viable
for general consumers. Discussed in the later sections, there are also future
storage technologies that could rival and outperform Li-ion batteries, which
should also be considered by WSC at this stage in preparation of integrating
them into future races.
Solar panel cost have also reduced tremendously over the past few decades due
to increase in demand in electric and development of newer more efficient
manufacturing processes. In the figure below the estimated cost of solar panels
has fallen from US$22/W to US$3/W today, and is expected to fall to $0.60/W by
2030, as indicated in Figure 6.2 (NREL 2010).

Figure 1.2: Reduction in PV cost over time (NREL 2010)

Increase in the demand and improvements in manufacturing technologies and

material choices have reduced the cost of solar PVs over the past few decades
and trend is likely to be followed in future to some extent as seen in the above
graph.

6.1.1 Developments in GaAs based solar PVs

As covered in Chapter 3.1, GaAs solar cells are much more efficient but have yet
to be commercialised due to the high material and manufacturing costs.
Different fabrication processes for GaAs based solar cells are under development
which are very cost efficient. In the improved manufacturing process, the GaAs
parent growth wafer is used multiple times rather than being discarded after only
a few uses, which makes it significantly cheaper than older methods of
fabrication (NanoFlex 2015). Multijunction solar cells could also be implemented
with GaAs, or even perovskites as the top cell that allows more incident
irradiance to be better utilised by the top and bottom solar cells.

6.2

Future Technologies of Interest

There are various types of related technologies that are under development or in
the initial phases of commercialisation. As the main aim of WSC is to promote
research regarding solar powered cars these technologies must be investigated.
These technologies have not been commercialised yet but it is likey that they
will be integrated into future WSC races. Some of these technologies will be
discussed in further detail in this section.

6.2.1 Transparent solar panels

Researches from the University of Michigan have developed transparent solar
panels. Generally photovoltaic cells absorb light photons and convert them into
electricity but this technology uses a different technique for using sunlight, they
use a transparent luminescent solar concentrator (TLSC). TLSC consists of
organic salts that absorb and emit specific wavelengths of ultraviolet and
infrared light, which is then guided through the plastic edges, where thin strips of
solar cells absorb and convert it into electricity (Lunt 2014). This technology is
still under development, and maximum efficiency of 7% has been achieved.

Although this efficiency is small further development in the technology will

improve this value. Potential uses of this technology are extensive such as the
car windows, windscreen and sunroof. This provides significant amount of energy
to SEVs without compromising available space of the vehicle for solar panels to
be installed.

6.2.2 Light sensitive nanoparticles

Researchers at the University of Toronto have recently revealed a new
technology for light sensing nano-particles that is known as colloidal quantum
dots. It utilises n-type and p-type semiconductor materials which can potentially
work outdoors. Generally n-type materials bind with oxygen in outdoor conditions
but quantum dots dont bind with air thus making them more efficient, long life
and stable in outdoor conditions (University of Toronto 2014). This type of panels
can be integrated onto the cars outer surface. This technology also tend to give
transparent finish. This technology requires very sophisticated manufacturing
processes, is likely to be high cost.

6.2.3 Graphene-based solar cells

One of the most discussed material is graphene, which has very high potential of
replacing number of traditional commercial materials including Silicon because of
its unique mechanical and chemical properties and its inexpensive
manufacturing process (Park et al. 2013). Graphene is made of a single layer of
carbon atoms that are bonded together in a repetitive pattern of hexagons.
Because of the negligible thickness of carbon atoms and hence the carbon layer
thickness, it is also referred as a 2-dimensional material. Researchers from MIT
have also recently announced that graphene-based solar cells are up to 1000
times more efficient than silicon based solar cells (Graphene-info 2015).
Graphene technology is developing very rapidly and is more likely to undergo
large-scale production in the near future. The manufacturing of graphene-based
solar panel fabrication is very sophisticated process based on nano scale
technology, which makes it difficult and costly to produce. It is very logical to say
that further development will effectively reduce the production costs.

6.2.4 Advancement in Energy storage

Among the emerging energy storage technologies, the most anticipated one is
carbon nanotube electrode technologies. These electrodes have a larger capacity
for storing and releasing ions than the cobalt oxide electrodes used in
conventional lithium ion batteries. Carbon nanotubes can store more power and
a tenfold increase the ion flow is observed . The nanotubes which were shown at
MIT demonstration in 2010 are under commercial development and testing
phase (Lee et al. 2010).

6.3

Implications of Future Technologies

There are variety of extraordinary materials and technologies that are under
development which have the potential to revolutionise the solar car industry.
Diminishing non-renewable energy resources have accelerated the development.
There are number of ways the technologies discussed in the chapter could be
used to improve performance of SEVs: transparent solar cells could replace glass
windows and windscreens, while graphene layers could be use over the entire
outer surface of the car whilst keeping a traditional look due to its thinness and
negligible weight. Solar technology has a higher potential of implementation as
an additional hybrid technology with other vehicles such as electric or traditional
petroleum based vehicles.

Executive summary
Increasing demand have excelled the development in new technologies and
modifying the available technologies for cost reduction such as battery cost is
expected to be about US$200 in 2020 from US$1000 per kWh in 2008. Recently
developed technologies have high potential to replace the current technologies
because of their lower costs and higher efficiencies such as Transparent solar
cells will replace the glass windows and Graphene based cells will be used as
outer surface of car because of its thinness and lower weight. New technologies
will drastically improve the SEVs in terms of overall cost and performance
efficiency.