Análisis Estadístico

DISTRIBUCIONES TERICAS
TABULACIN A
N de interv.
Precipitacin
N de interv.
Precipitacin
10.9
39
21.3
14.6
40
17.2
20.6
41
36.1
11.9
42
49.5
64
43
20
20.9
44
4.6
32
45
27.3
28.8
46
49.7
2.6
47
34.6
10
35.8
48
49
11
17.7
49
25.3
12
38.4
50
27.2
13
16.3
51
38.8
14
6.8
52
52.4
15
17
53
11.5
16
6.8
54
15.8
17
25.3
55
70
18
36.3
56
24
19
16.5
57
16.5
20
8.7
58
5.7
21
2.9
59
15.5
22
8.9
60
18.5
23
32.3
61
30.7
24
56.6
62
10.5
25
3.6
63
3.5
26
11
64
13.9
27
52.5
65
4.3
28
46.3
66
22.6
29
5.2
67
45
30
42.5
68
10
31
17.5
69
9.6
32
64.5
70
22.7
33
28
71
23
34
19.6
72
26.2
35
30.9
73
31.7
36
27.5
74
29.9
37
10.3
75
25.9
76
34.5
38
21.1
DISTRIBUCIN DE FRECUENCIA
76
V. Mayor
70
mm.
(Ls)
V. Mayor
2.6
mm.
(Li)
Rango
Rango
=
=
Ls - Li
67.4
mm.
"m"
N de Intervalos a Usar:
m
m
=
=
2.5*((N)^(1/4))
7.38
m
m
=
=
1.33*LnN +1
6.76
m'
"C"
Amplitud Intervlica:
C
C
=
=
R/m'
9.63
mm.
C'
10
mm.
"R'"
Nuevo Rango:
R'
R'
mm.
=
=
C' * m'
70
mm.
Correccin de Lmites:
e
e
=
=
(R' - R)/2
1.3
Ls'
Li'
=
=
Ls + e
Li - e
=
=
71.3
1.3
Si al efectuar esta operacin resulta valor

negativo se va a asumir cero (0):
N de
Marca de
Intervalo
N de
Probabilidad Probabilidad
1.3
intervalos
Clase
de Clase
datos en
Interval
o
6.3
1.3 - 11.3
18
0.24
0.24
16.35
11.4 - 21.3
20
0.26
0.50
26.35
21.4 - 31.3
16
0.21
0.71
36.35
31.4 - 41.4
10
0.13
0.84
46.35
41.4 - 51.5
0.08
0.92
56.35
51.4 - 61.6
0.04
0.96
66.35
61.4 - 71.7
0.04
1.00
Pi
acumulada
Con la informacin de la tabulacin A obtener la cultura de lluvia para una

probabilidad acumulada de 80%
A) GRAFICO DISTRIBUCIN DE FRECUENCIA:
B) GRAFICO DE DISTRIBUCIN DE PROBABILIDAD:
C) GRAFICO DE DISTRIBUCIN ACUMULADA DE PROBABILIDAD
Tabla 1: "DISTRIBUCION NORMAL ACUMULADA"
F( z )
1
e / 2
2
F( z ) 1 F( z )
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.5000000
0.5039894
0.5079783
0.5119665
0.5159534
0.5199388
0.5239222
0.5279032
0.5318814
0.5358564
0.1
0.5398278
0.5437953
0.5477584
0.5517168
0.5556700
0.5596177
0.5635595
0.5674949
0.5714237
0.5753454
0.1
0.2
0.5792597
0.5831662
0.5870644
0.5909541
0.5948349
0.5987063
0.6025681
0.6064199
0.6102612
0.6140919
0.2
0.3
0.6179114
0.6217195
0.6255158
0.6293000
0.6330717
0.6368307
0.6405764
0.6443088
0.6480273
0.6517317
0.3
0.4
0.6554217
0.6590970
0.6627573
0.6664022
0.6700314
0.6736448
0.6772419
0.6808225
0.6843863
0.6879331
0.4
0.5
0.6914625
0.6949743
0.6984682
0.7019440
0.7054015
0.7088403
0.7122603
0.7156612
0.7190427
0.7224047
0.5
0.6
0.7257469
0.7290691
0.7323711
0.7356527
0.7389137
0.7421539
0.7453731
0.7485711
0.7517478
0.7549029
0.6
0.7
0.7580363
0.7611479
0.7642375
0.7673049
0.7703500
0.7733726
0.7763727
0.7793501
0.7823046
0.7852361
0.7
0.8
0.7881446
0.7910299
0.7938919
0.7967306
0.7995458
0.8023375
0.8051055
0.8078498
0.8105703
0.8132671
0.8
0.9
0.8159399
0.8185887
0.8212136
0.8238145
0.8263912
0.8289439
0.8314724
0.8339768
0.8364569
0.8389129
0.9
0.8413447
0.8437524
0.8461358
0.8484950
0.8508300
0.8531409
0.8554277
0.8576903
0.8599289
0.8621434
1.1
0.8643339
0.8665005
0.8686431
0.8707619
0.8728568
0.8749281
0.8769756
0.8789995
0.8809999
0.8829768
1.1
1.2
0.8849303
0.8868606
0.8887676
0.8906514
0.8925123
0.8943502
0.8961653
0.8979577
0.8997274
0.9014747
1.2
1.3
0.9031995
0.9049021
0.9065825
0.9082409
0.9098773
0.9114920
0.9146565
0.9162067
0.9177356
1.3
0.9264707
0.9130850
0.9278550
1.4
0.9192433
0.9207302
0.9221962
0.9236415
0.9250663
1.5
0.9331928
0.9344783
0.9357445
0.9369916
0.9382198
0.9292191
0.9305634
0.9318879
1.4
0.9394292
0.9406201
0.9417924
0.9429466
0.9440826
1.5
1.6
0.9452007
0.9463011
0.9473839
0.9484493
0.9494974
0.9505285
0.9515428
0.9525403
0.9535213
0.9544860
1.6
1.7
0.9554345
0.9563671
0.9572838
0.9581849
0.9590705
0.9599408
0.9607961
0.9616364
0.9624620
0.9632730
1.7
1.8
0.9640697
0.9648521
1.9
0.9656205
0.9663750
0.9671159
0.9678432
0.9685572
0.9692581
0.9699460
0.9706210
1.8
0.9712834
0.9719334
0.9725711
0.9731966
0.9738102
0.9744119
0.9750021
0.9755808
0.9761482
0.9767045
1.9
0.9772499
0.9777844
0.9783083
0.9788217
0.9793248
0.9798178
0.9803007
0.9807738
0.9812372
0.9816911
2.1
0.9821356
0.9825708
0.9829970
0.9834142
0.9838226
0.9842224
0.9846137
0.9849966
0.9853713
0.9857379
2.1
2.2
0.9860966
0.9864474
0.9867906
0.9871263
0.9874545
0.9877755
0.9880894
0.9883962
0.9886962
0.9889893
2.2
2.3
0.9892759
0.9895559
0.9898296
0.9900969
0.9903581
0.9906133
0.9908625
0.9911060
0.9913437
0.9915758
2.3
2.4
0.9918025
0.9920237
0.9922397
0.9924506
0.9926564
0.9928572
0.9930531
0.9932443
0.9934309
0.9936128
2.4
2.5
0.9937903
0.9939634
0.9941323
0.9942969
0.9944574
0.9946139
0.9947664
0.9949151
0.9950600
0.9952012
2.5
2.6
0.9953388
0.9954729
0.9956035
0.9957308
0.9958547
0.9959754
0.9960930
0.9962074
0.9963189
0.9964274
2.6
2.7
0.9965330
0.9966358
0.9967359
0.9968333
0.9969280
0.9970202
0.9971099
0.9971972
0.9972821
0.9973646
2.7
2.8
0.9974449
0.9975229
0.9975988
0.9976726
0.9977443
0.9978140
0.9978818
0.9979476
0.9980116
0.9980738
2.8
2.9
0.9981342
0.9981929
0.9982498
0.9983052
0.9983589
0.9984111
0.9984618
0.9985110
0.9985588
0.9986051
2.9
0.9986501
0.9986938
0.9987361
0.9987772
0.9988171
0.9988558
0.9988933
0.9989297
0.9989650
0.9989992
3.1
0.9990324
0.9990646
0.9990957
0.9991260
0.9991553
0.9991836
0.9992112
0.9992378
0.9992636
0.9992886
3.1
3.2
0.9993129
0.9993363
0.9993590
0.9993810
0.9994024
0.9994230
0.9994429
0.9994623
0.9994810
0.9994991
3.2
3.3
0.9995166
0.9995335
0.9995499
0.9995658
0.9995811
0.9995959
0.9996103
0.9996242
0.9996376
0.9996505
3.3
3.4
0.9996631
0.9996752
0.9996869
0.9996982
0.9997091
0.9997197
0.9997299
0.9997398
0.9997493
0.9997585
3.4
3.5
0.9997674
0.9997759
0.9997842
0.9997922
0.9997999
0.9998074
0.9998146
0.9998215
0.9998282
0.9998347
3.5
3.6
0.9998409
0.9998469
0.9998527
0.9998583
0.9998637
0.9998689
0.9998739
0.9998787
0.9998834
0.9998879
3.6
3.7
0.9998922
0.9998964
0.9999004
0.9999043
0.9999080
0.9999116
0.9999150
0.9999184
0.9999216
0.9999247
3.7
3.8
0.9999277
0.9999305
0.9999333
0.9999359
0.9999385
0.9999409
0.9999433
0.9999456
0.9999478
0.9999499
3.8
3.9
0.9999519
0.9999539
0.9999557
0.9999575
0.9999593
0.9999609
0.9999625
0.9999641
0.9999655
0.9999670
3.9
PRUEBAS DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE
Grficamente
.- Uso del Papel Probabilstico Normal
Analticamente
.- Uso Estadstico
- CHI - CUADRADO
- SMIRNOV KOLMOGOROV
PRUEBAS DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE DE SMIRNOV - KOLMOGOROV

Consiste en comparar las diferencias existentes entre la PROBABILIDAD EMPRICA
DE LOS DATOS DE LA MUESTRA y la PROBABILIDAD TERICA, tomando el valor
mximo del valor absoluto, de la diferencia entre el valor observado y el valor de la
recta terica del modelo, es decir:
= mx. |F(X) P(X)|
...
Siendo:
: Estadstico SMIRNOV KOLMOGOROV
F(X)
: Probabilidad de la Distribucin de Ajuste o Terica.
P(X)
: Probabilidad Experimental o Emprica de los Datos (Frecuencia acumulada).
Tabla N 2: Valores Crticos de 0 del Estadstico SMIRNOV KOLMOGOROV , para

varios valores de N y niveles de significancia .
Tamao de la
muestra N
Nivel de significancia .
0.20
0. l0
0.05
0.01
0.45
0.51
0.56
0.67
10
0.32
0.37
0.41
0.49
15
0.27
0.30
0.34
0.40
20
0.23
0.26
0.29
0.36
25
0.21
0.24
0.27
0.32
30
0.19
0.22
0.24
0.29
35
0.18
0.20
0.23
0.27
40
0.17
0.19
0.21
0.25
45
0.16
0.18
0.20
0.24
50
0.15
0.17
0.19
0.23
1.07
1.22
1.36
1.63
N>50
El Estadstico , tiene su funcin de distribucin de probabilidades.

Si 0 es un valor crtico para un nivel de significancia , se tiene:
P ( 0) =
P ( < 0) = 1 -
PROCEDIMIENTO PARA EFECTUAR EL AJUSTE MEDIANTE EL ESTADSTICO

SMIRNOV KOLMOGOROV
1)
Clculo de la Probabilidad Emprica o Experimental, P(X), de los datos (En

funcin de nmero de datos)
NOMBRE
AO
PROBABILIDAD
CALIFORNIA
1923
m/n
HAZEN
1930
(2m-1)/(2N)
WEIBULL
1939
(m)/(N-1)
Donde:
N
: Nmero total de valores de la Muestra.
: Nmero de orden de los valores ordenados de mayor a menor.
til la expresin de WEIBULL

P(X) = (m)/(N-1)
Clculo
n
Xi ; S
i 1
(Xi X )
n 1
Clculo Variable Estandarizada

Z = f (Xi, X, S,)
2)
Clculo de la Probabilidad Terica, F(Z), (Ver tabulacin 1), funcin de los valores
de informacin, Pi, Qi
3)
Clculo: F(Z) P(X)
4)
Seleccionar la Mxima Diferencia:

max mx. F(X ) P( X )
5)
Hallar valor crtico del estadstico 0, para:

= 0.05
6)
N = # de datos. (Ver tabla 1)
Comparar con 0, si:

mx < 0 AJUSTE BUENO
mx 0 AJUSTE NO BUENO
DISTRIBUCIN NORMAL
Funcin Densidad de Probabilidad:

1
f (X )
2.S
1 X X
2
S
Siendo:
F(X)
: Funcin Densidad Normal de Variable (X)
: Variable Independiente
: Media Aritmtica de X
: Desviacin Estndar de X
: Funcin Exponencial.
Es una funcin continua y simtrica con respecto a X.
Funcin Densidad de la Distribucin Normal Estndar:

Si:
XX
S
Funcin Densidad de Z:
1
f (Z )
2.S
z2
e 2
Los Valores: f (X) o f (Z), pueden ser fcilmente evaluados para un valor dado de X o Z.
Expresiones tiles para estimar valores:
Datos originales:
n
xi
i 1
(x i x )
i 1
(n 1)
XX
Sx
Se debe calcular:
P( x )
m
n 1
, para luego establecer:
max mx. F(X ) P( X ) con los datos o informacin que se dispone.
N: Total de Muestra
: Nivel de significancia = 0.05
HOJA DE CLCULO N 01 :AJUSTE MEDIANTE EL ESTADISTICO "SMIRNOV KOLMOGOROV"

(1) Sin Redondeo
Q=X
P(X)=
m/
(n+1)
(Xi - X)
Z=
(XiX)/S
(2) Con Redondeo
F(z)
=Abs
(F(z)-P(X))
F(Z)
2.6
0.0130
494.7698
-1.39 0.08192
0.0689
-1.39
0.08226
0.06928
2.9
0.0260
481.5137
-1.37 0.08480
0.0588
-1.37
0.08534
0.05937
3.5
0.0390
455.5416
-1.34 0.09078
0.0518
-1.34
0.09012
0.05116
3.6
0.0519
451.2829
-1.33 0.09181
0.0399
-1.33
0.09176
0.03981
4.3
0.0649
422.0321
-1.29 0.09924
0.0343
-1.29
0.09853
0.03359
4.6
0.0779
409.7961
-1.27 0.10256
0.0246
-1.27
0.10204
0.02412
5.2
0.0909
385.8640
-1.23 0.10943
0.0185
-1.23
0.10935
0.01844
5.7
0.1039
366.4706
-1.20 0.11541
0.0115
-1.20
0.11507
0.01117
6.8
0.1169
325.5650
-1.13 0.12936
0.0125
-1.13
0.12924
0.01235
10
6.8
0.1299
325.5650
-1.13 0.12936
0.0005
-1.13
0.12924
0.00063
11
8.7
0.1429
260.6100
-1.01 0.15613
0.0133
-1.01
0.15625
0.01339
12
8.9
0.1558
254.1927
-1.00 0.15915
0.0033
-1.00
0.15866
0.00281
13
9.6
0.1688
232.3619
-0.95 0.17001
0.0012
-0.95
0.17106
0.00222
14
10
0.1818
220.3271
-0.93 0.17642
0.0054
-0.93
0.17619
0.00563
15
10.3
0.1948
211.5111
-0.91 0.18133
0.0135
-0.91
0.18141
0.01339
16
10.5
0.2078
205.7337
-0.90 0.18464
0.0231
-0.90
0.18406
0.02373
17
10.9
0.2208
194.4190
-0.87 0.19139
0.0294
-0.87
0.19215
0.02863
18
11
0.2338
191.6403
-0.87 0.19311
0.0407
-0.87
0.19215
0.04162
19
11.5
0.2468
178.0469
-0.84 0.20180
0.0450
-0.84
0.20045
0.04630
20
11.9
0.2597
167.5321
-0.81 0.20892
0.0508
-0.81
0.20897
0.05077
21
13.9
0.2727
119.7585
-0.68 0.24668
0.0261
-0.68
0.24825
0.02448
22
14.6
0.2857
104.9277
-0.64 0.26071
0.0250
-0.64
0.26109
0.02463
23
15.5
0.2987
87.2995
-0.58 0.27933
0.0194
-0.58
0.28096
0.01774
24
15.8
0.3117
81.7835
-0.57 0.28568
0.0260
-0.57
0.28434
0.02735
25
16.3
0.3247
72.9900
-0.53 0.29641
0.0283
-0.53
0.29806
0.02662
26
16.5
0.3377
69.6127
-0.52 0.30075
0.0369
-0.52
0.30153
0.03613
27
16.5
0.3506
69.6127
-0.52 0.30075
0.0499
-0.52
0.30153
0.04912
28
17
0.3636
61.5193
-0.49 0.31173
0.0519
-0.49
0.31207
0.05157
29
17.2
0.3766
58.4219
-0.48 0.31617
0.0605
-0.48
0.31561
0.06101
30
17.5
0.3896
53.9258
-0.46 0.32288
0.0667
-0.46
0.32276
0.06685
31
17.7
0.4026
51.0285
-0.45 0.32739
0.0752
-0.45
0.32636
0.07624
32
18.5
0.4156
40.2390
-0.40 0.34566
0.0699
-0.40
0.34458
0.07101
33
19.6
0.4286
27.4935
-0.33 0.37138
0.0572
-0.33
0.37070
0.05787
34
20
0.4416
23.4587
-0.30 0.38088
0.0607
-0.30
0.38209
0.05947
35
20.6
0.4545
18.0066
-0.27 0.39527
0.0593
-0.27
0.39358
0.06097
36
20.9
0.4675
15.5506
-0.25 0.40252
0.0650
-0.25
0.40129
0.06624
37
21.1
0.4805
14.0132
-0.23 0.40737
0.0731
-0.23
0.40905
0.07147
38
21.3
0.4935
12.5558
-0.22 0.41224
0.0813
-0.22
0.41294
0.08057
39
22.6
0.5065
5.0329
-0.14 0.44416
0.0623
-0.14
0.44433
0.06216
40
22.7
0.5195
4.5943
-0.13 0.44664
0.0728
-0.13
0.44828
0.07120
41
23
0.5325
3.3982
-0.12 0.45407
0.0784
-0.12
0.45224
0.08023
42
24
0.5455
0.7114
-0.05 0.47895
0.0665
-0.05
0.48006
0.06539
43
25.3
0.5584
0.2085
0.03 0.51140
0.0470
0.03
0.51197
0.04648
44
25.3
0.5714
0.2085
0.03 0.51140
0.0600
0.03
0.51197
0.05946
45
25.9
0.5844
1.1164
0.07 0.52636
0.0581
0.07
0.52790
0.05651
46
26.2
0.5974
1.8403
0.08 0.53383
0.0636
0.08
0.53188
0.06552
47
27.2
0.6104
5.5535
0.15 0.55863
0.0518
0.15
0.55962
0.05077
48
27.3
0.6234
6.0348
0.15 0.56110
0.0623
0.15
0.55962
0.06376
49
27.5
0.6364
7.0574
0.17 0.56603
0.0703
0.17
0.56749
0.06887
50
28.5
0.6494
13.3706
0.23 0.59052
0.0588
0.23
0.59095
0.05840
51
28.8
0.6623
15.6545
0.25 0.59780
0.0645
0.25
0.59871
0.06363
52
29.9
0.6753
25.5690
0.32 0.62419
0.0511
0.32
0.62552
0.04981
53
30.7
0.6883
34.2995
0.37 0.64304
0.0453
0.37
0.64431
0.04400
54
30.9
0.7013
36.6821
0.38 0.64769
0.0536
0.38
0.64803
0.05327
55
31.7
0.7143
47.0127
0.43 0.66610
0.0482
0.43
0.66640
0.04788
56
32
0.7273
51.2166
0.45 0.67291
0.0544
0.45
0.67364
0.05363
57
32.3
0.7403
55.6006
0.47 0.67965
0.0606
0.47
0.68082
0.05944
58
34.5
0.7532
93.2495
0.60 0.72722
0.0260
0.60
0.72575
0.02750
59
34.6
0.7662
95.1908
0.61 0.72930
0.0369
0.61
0.72907
0.03716
60
35.8
0.7792
120.0466
0.69 0.75358
0.0256
0.69
0.75490
0.02432
61
36.1
0.7922
126.7106
0.70 0.75947
0.0327
0.70
0.75804
0.03417
62
36.3
0.8052
131.2532
0.72 0.76335
0.0418
0.72
0.76424
0.04096
63
38.4
0.8182
183.7808
0.85 0.80194
0.0162
0.85
0.80234
0.01584
64
38.8
0.8312
194.7861
0.87 0.80883
0.0223
0.87
0.80785
0.02332
65
42.5
0.8442
311.7548
1.11 0.86546
0.0213
1.11
0.86650
0.02234
66
45
0.8571
406.2877
1.26 0.89647
0.0393
1.26
0.89617
0.03902
67
46.3
0.8701
460.3848
1.34 0.91037
0.0402
1.34
0.90988
0.03975
68
49
0.8831
583.5403
1.51 0.93474
0.0516
1.51
0.93448
0.05136
69
49.5
0.8961
607.9469
1.54 0.93863
0.0425
1.54
0.93822
0.04212
70
49.7
0.9091
617.8495
1.56 0.94013
0.0310
1.56
0.94062
0.03153
71
52.4
0.9221
759.3650
1.72 0.95772
0.0356
1.72
0.95728
0.03521
72
52.5
0.9351
764.8864
1.73 0.95829
0.0232
1.73
0.95818
0.02312
73
56.6
0.9481
1008.4803
1.99 0.97658
0.0285
1.99
0.97670
0.02865
74
64
0.9610
1533.2377
2.45 0.99288
0.0318
2.45
0.99286
0.03182
75
64.5
0.9740
1572.6443
2.48 0.99347
0.0194
2.48
0.99343
0.01940
76
70
0.9870
2039.1166
2.83 0.99765
0.0106
2.83
0.99767
0.01066
= 1888
= 19142.6467
max=
0.0813
X= 24.84
S= 15.9760849
o=
0.2
n=
76
max= 0.08057
para
= 0.05
Resultado del Anlisis:
AJUSTE BUENO (max < o)
La informacin es:
CONFIABLE
(1) Sin Redondeo: Clculos con todos los decimales, grabados en memoria interna.
(2) Con Redondeo: Clculos con los decimales de las tablas, decimales
redondeados.
HALLAR EL CAUDAL Q PARA UN TIEMPO DE RETORNO T = 10, 20, 25, 50, 100
Para T = 10 aos
1
1
()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )
De (): 1 P(X Q)
1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T
P( X Q) F(Q q ) F(Z )
F(Z ) 1
1
F(Z ) 0.9
10
F(Z)
0.89973
Z
1.28
Z (I)
1.29
0.9
0.90147
Interpolando obtenemos Z (I) = 1.281551724
Reemplazando el Z (I) encontrado en la siguiente ecuacin obtenemos X:
XX
Sx
1.281551724
X 24.84
X 45.31417915
15.9760849
Q=45 m3/s
Para T = 20 aos
1
1
()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )
De (): 1 P(X Q)
1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T
P( X Q) F(Q q ) F(Z )
F( Z ) 1
F(Z)
0.94950
0.95
0.95053
1
F(Z ) 0.95
20
Z
1.64
Z (I)
1.65
XX
Sx
1.64485436 9
X 24.84
X 51.11833305
15.9760849
Q=51 m3/s
Para T = 25 aos
1
1
()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )
De (): 1 P(X Q)
1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T
P( X Q) F(Q q ) F(Z )
F( Z ) 1
1
F(Z ) 0.96
25
F(Z)
0.95994
0.96
0.96080
Z
1.75
Z (I)
1.76
XX
Sx
1.750697674
X 24.84
X 52.80929467
15.9760849
Q=53 m3/s
Para T = 50 aos
1
1
()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )
De (): 1 P(X Q)
1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T
P( X Q) F(Q q ) F(Z )
1
F(Z ) 0.98
50
F( Z ) 1
F(Z)
0.97982
Z
1.75
Z (I)
1.76
0.98
0.98030
Interpolando obtenemos Z (I) =2.05375
XX
Sx
2.05375
X 24.84
X 57.65088436
15.9760849
Q=58 m3/s
Para T = 100 aos
1
1
()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )
De (): 1 P(X Q)
1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T
P( X Q) F(Q q ) F(Z )
F( Z ) 1
1
F(Z ) 0.99
100
F(Z)
0.98983
0.99
0.99010
Z
2.32
Z (I)
2.33
XX
Sx
2.32629629 6
X 24.84
X 62.00510713
15.9760849
Q=62 m3/s
DISTRIBUCIN LOGARITMICA NORMAL DE 2 PARMETROS
Y LnX
Funcin Densidad:
Donde:
X = Pi, Qi, I,
La Funcin de Distribucin de Y es:
f (Y)
y 2
Donde :
Si
1 y uy
2 y
Media
uy
Varianza
y2
f (y), lo ponemos como f (x)

f ( X ) f ( Y ) dy / dx
Donde :
dy /dx = 1/x
Por lo tanto; la funcin de Distribucin de la Probabilidad de X, es:
1
e
x. y . 2
f (X )
Donde:
1 ln X u y
2
y
y uy
y
Expresiones tiles para estimar valores:
Datos originales:
n
i 1
( x i x )
(n 1)
Varianza
Media
max mx. F(X ) P( X )
P( x )
Hallo 0
m
n 1
i 1
y ln(1 (CVx )2 )
Siendo:
xi
1
x
ln(
)
2
1 CVx2
CVx
Sx
x
Tener Nivel de significancia.

HOJA DE CLCULO N 02: "DISTRIBUCION LOG. NORMAL"
Q=X
P(X)=
m/
(n+1)
z=(Ln(Q)y)/y
F(z)
[F(z)P(x)]
=Abs
[F(z)P(x)]
2.6
0.0130
-3.5425
0.00020 -0.01279
0.01279
2.9
0.0260
-3.3568
0.00039 -0.02558
0.0256
3.5
0.0390
-3.0372
0.00119 -0.03777
0.0378
3.6
0.0519
-2.9893
0.00140 -0.05055
0.0505
4.3
0.0649
-2.6873
0.00360 -0.06134
0.0613
4.6
0.0779
-2.5726
0.00505 -0.07287
0.0729
5.2
0.0909
-2.3642
0.00903 -0.08188
0.0819
5.7
0.1039
-2.2082
0.01362 -0.09028
0.0903
6.8
0.1169
-1.9082
0.02818 -0.08870
0.0887
10
6.8
0.1299
-1.9082
0.02818 -0.10169
0.1017
11
8.7
0.1429
-1.4894
0.06819 -0.07467
0.0747
12
8.9
0.1558
-1.4508
0.07342 -0.08242
0.0824
13
9.6
0.1688
-1.3221
0.09307 -0.07576
0.0758
14
10
0.1818
-1.2527
0.10516 -0.07666
0.0767
15
10.3
0.1948
-1.2024
0.11460 -0.08021
0.0802
16
10.5
0.2078
-1.1698
0.12105 -0.08674
0.0867
17
10.9
0.2208
-1.1062
0.13432 -0.08646
0.0865
18
11
0.2338
-1.0907
0.13771 -0.09606
0.0961
19
11.5
0.2468
-1.0151
0.15502 -0.09173
0.0917
20
11.9
0.2597
-0.9570
0.16928 -0.09046
0.0905
21
13.9
0.2727
-0.6929
0.24417 -0.02856
0.0286
22
14.6
0.2857
-0.6094
0.27112 -0.01459
0.0146
23
15.5
0.2987
-0.5077
0.30582
0.00712
0.0071
24
15.8
0.3117
-0.4752
0.31734
0.00565
0.0057
25
16.3
0.3247
-0.4222
0.33644
0.01176
0.0118
26
16.5
0.3377
-0.4015
0.34404
0.00638
0.0064
27
16.5
0.3506
-0.4015
0.34404 -0.00661
0.0066
28
17
0.3636
-0.3507
0.36290 -0.00074
0.0007
29
17.2
0.3766
-0.3308
0.37038 -0.00624
0.0062
30
17.5
0.3896
-0.3015
0.38154 -0.00807
0.0081
31
17.7
0.4026
-0.2821
0.38892 -0.01368
0.0137
32
18.5
0.4156
-0.2070
0.41801
0.00243
0.0024
33
19.6
0.4286
-0.1088
0.45668
0.02811
0.0281
34
20
0.4416
-0.0745
0.47032
0.02876
0.0288
35
20.6
0.4545
-0.0242
0.49034
0.03579
0.0358
36
20.9
0.4675
0.0003
0.50014
0.03261
0.0326
37
21.1
0.4805
0.0165
0.50660
0.02608
0.0261
38
21.3
0.4935
0.0326
0.51299
0.01948
0.0195
39
22.6
0.5065
0.1333
0.55301
0.04652
0.0465
40
22.7
0.5195
0.1408
0.55598
0.03650
0.0365
41
23
0.5325
0.1631
0.56478
0.03231
0.0323
42
24
0.5455
0.2354
0.59307
0.04762
0.0476
43
25.3
0.5584
0.3251
0.62745
0.06901
0.0690
44
25.3
0.5714
0.3251
0.62745
0.05602
0.0560
45
25.9
0.5844
0.3649
0.64242
0.05800
0.0580
46
26.2
0.5974
0.3845
0.64970
0.05230
0.0523
47
27.2
0.6104
0.4482
0.67299
0.06260
0.0626
48
27.3
0.6234
0.4544
0.67524
0.05186
0.0519
49
27.5
0.6364
0.4668
0.67969
0.04333
0.0433
50
28.5
0.6494
0.5276
0.70110
0.05175
0.0517
51
28.8
0.6623
0.5454
0.70724
0.04490
0.0449
52
29.9
0.6753
0.6091
0.72876
0.05344
0.0534
53
30.7
0.6883
0.6539
0.74343
0.05512
0.0551
54
30.9
0.7013
0.6650
0.74697
0.04567
0.0457
55
31.7
0.7143
0.7084
0.76066
0.04637
0.0464
56
32
0.7273
0.7244
0.76560
0.03833
0.0383
57
32.3
0.7403
0.7403
0.77044
0.03018
0.0302
58
34.5
0.7532
0.8523
0.80298
0.04973
0.0497
59
34.6
0.7662
0.8572
0.80434
0.03811
0.0381
60
35.8
0.7792
0.9152
0.81995
0.04073
0.0407
61
36.1
0.7922
0.9294
0.82365
0.03144
0.0314
62
36.3
0.8052
0.9388
0.82607
0.02088
0.0209
63
38.4
0.8182
1.0344
0.84952
0.03134
0.0313
64
38.8
0.8312
1.0520
0.85359
0.02242
0.0224
65
42.5
0.8442
1.2068
0.88625
0.04209
0.0421
66
45
0.8571
1.3040
0.90388
0.04674
0.0467
67
46.3
0.8701
1.3524
0.91187
0.04174
0.0417
68
49
0.8831
1.4487
0.92629
0.04317
0.0432
69
49.5
0.8961
1.4660
0.92867
0.03257
0.0326
70
49.7
0.9091
1.4728
0.92960
0.02051
0.0205
71
52.4
0.9221
1.5627
0.94094
0.01886
0.0189
72
52.5
0.9351
1.5660
0.94132
0.00626
0.0063
73
56.6
0.9481
1.6938
0.95485
0.00680
0.0068
74
64
0.9610
1.9027
0.97146
0.01042
0.0104
75
64.5
0.9740
1.9159
0.97231 -0.00172
0.0017
76
70
0.9870
2.0550
0.98006 -0.00695
0.0070
1888
-9.6297
max=
x = 24.843
n=
76
S=
15.97608492
o=
CVx=
0.643071052
0.1017
0.2 para =
0.05
= 0.5883
= 3.0395

La informacin es:

CONFIABLE
Para T = 10 aos
1
1
()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )
De (): 1 P(X Q)
1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T
P( X Q) F(Q q ) F(Z )
F(Z ) 1
1
F(Z ) 0.9
10
F(Z)
0.89973
Z
1.28
Z (I)
1.29
0.9
0.90147
Y y
y
1.281551724
LnX 3.0395
X 44.40876586
0.5883
Q=44 m3/s
Para T = 20 aos
1
1
()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )
De (): 1 P(X Q)
1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T
P( X Q) F(Q q ) F(Z )
F( Z ) 1
F(Z)
0.94950
0.95
0.95053
1
F(Z ) 0.95
20
Z
1.64
Z (I)
1.65
Y y
y
1.64485436 9
LnX 3.0395
X 54.99090595
0.5883
Q=55 m3/s
Para T = 25 aos
1
1
()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )
De (): 1 P(X Q)
1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T
P( X Q) F(Q q ) F(Z )
F( Z ) 1
1
F(Z ) 0.96
25
F(Z)
0.95994
Z
1.75
Z (I)
1.76
0.96
0.96080
Y y
y
1.75069767 4
LnX 3.0395
X 58.5239131
0.5883
Q=59 m3/s
Para T = 50 aos
1
1
()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )
De (): 1 P(X Q)
1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T
P( X Q) F(Q q ) F(Z )
F( Z ) 1
1
F(Z ) 0.98
50
F(Z)
0.97982
Z
1.75
Z (I)
1.76
0.98
0.98030
Interpolando obtenemos Z (I) =2.05375
Y y
y
2.05375
LnX 3.0395
X 69.94583278
0.5883
Q=70 m3/s
Para T = 100 aos
1
1
()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )
De (): 1 P(X Q)
1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T
P( X Q) F(Q q ) F(Z )
F( Z ) 1
1
F(Z ) 0.99
100
F(Z)
0.98983
0.99
0.99010
Z
2.32
Z (I)
2.33
Y y
y
2.32629629 6
LnX 3.0395
X 82.11002457
0.5883
Q=82 m3/s
DISTRIBUCIN GUMBELL
f (X ) e
Donde:
Y
x
X Y
Se debe calcular:
P( x )
m
n 1
, para luego establecer:
max mx. F(X ) P( X ) con los datos o informacin que se dispone.
N: Total de Muestra
: Nivel de significancia = 0.05
Expresiones Usadas:
6
.S
x 0.45.s
(x i x )
i 1
(n 1)
xi
i 1
HOJA DE CLCULO N 03: "DISTRIBUCION GUMBELL"

Y=(Q)/
=Abs
[P(x)-G(y)]
Q=X
P(X)= m/
(n+1)
2.6
0.0130
-1.2085
3.35
0.03513
0.0221
2.9
0.0260
-1.1845
3.27
0.03805
0.0121
3.5
0.0390
-1.1363
3.12
0.04437
0.0054
3.6
0.0519
-1.1283
3.09
0.04549
0.0065
4.3
0.0649
-1.0721
2.92
0.05386
0.0111
4.6
0.0779
-1.0480
2.85
0.05774
0.0202
5.2
0.0909
-0.9998
2.72
0.06602
0.0249
5.7
0.1039
-0.9597
2.61
0.07347
0.0304
6.8
0.1169
-0.8714
2.39
0.09161
0.0253
10
6.8
0.1299
-0.8714
2.39
0.09161
0.0383
11
8.7
0.1429
-0.7188
2.05
0.12847
0.0144
12
8.9
0.1558
-0.7028
2.02
0.13274
0.0231
13
9.6
0.1688
-0.6466
1.91
0.14823
0.0206
14
10
0.1818
-0.6145
1.85
0.15744
0.0244
15
10.3
0.1948
-0.5904
1.80
0.16453
0.0303
16
10.5
0.2078
-0.5743
1.78
0.16932
0.0385
17
10.9
0.2208
-0.5422
1.72
0.17910
0.0417
18
11
0.2338
-0.5342
1.71
0.18158
0.0522
19
11.5
0.2468
-0.4941
1.64
0.19418
0.0526
20
11.9
0.2597
-0.4619
1.59
0.20451
0.0552
21
13.9
0.2727
-0.3014
1.35
0.25879
0.0139
22
14.6
0.2857
-0.2452
1.28
0.27863
0.0071
23
15.5
0.2987
-0.1729
1.19
0.30459
0.0059
24
15.8
0.3117
-0.1489
1.16
0.31333
0.0016
25
16.3
0.3247
-0.1087
1.11
0.32797
0.0033
26
16.5
0.3377
-0.0927
1.10
0.33384
0.0038
27
16.5
0.3506
-0.0927
1.10
0.33384
0.0168
28
17
0.3636
-0.0525
1.05
0.34857
0.0151
29
17.2
0.3766
-0.0365
1.04
0.35447
0.0222
30
17.5
0.3896
-0.0124
1.01
0.36333
0.0263
31
17.7
0.4026
0.0037
1.00
0.36923
0.0334
32
18.5
0.4156
0.0679
0.93
0.39284
0.0227
33
19.6
0.4286
0.1562
0.86
0.42512
0.0035
34
20
0.4416
0.1883
0.83
0.43677
0.0048
35
20.6
0.4545
0.2365
0.79
0.45412
0.0004
36
20.9
0.4675
0.2606
0.77
0.46273
0.0048
37
21.1
0.4805
0.2766
0.76
0.46845
0.0121
38
21.3
0.4935
0.2927
0.75
0.47414
0.0194
39
22.6
0.5065
0.3970
0.67
0.51053
0.0040
40
22.7
0.5195
0.4051
0.67
0.51328
0.0062
41
23
0.5325
0.4292
0.65
0.52149
0.0110
Yi
G (Y ) e e
Yi
42
24
0.5455
0.5094
0.60
0.54835
0.0029
43
25.3
0.5584
0.6138
0.54
0.58200
0.0236
44
25.3
0.5714
0.6138
0.54
0.58200
0.0106
45
25.9
0.5844
0.6620
0.52
0.59700
0.0126
46
26.2
0.5974
0.6861
0.50
0.60438
0.0070
47
27.2
0.6104
0.7663
0.46
0.62831
0.0179
48
27.3
0.6234
0.7744
0.46
0.63065
0.0073
49
27.5
0.6364
0.7904
0.45
0.63530
0.0011
50
28.5
0.6494
0.8707
0.42
0.65793
0.0086
51
28.8
0.6623
0.8948
0.41
0.66451
0.0022
52
29.9
0.6753
0.9831
0.37
0.68787
0.0125
53
30.7
0.6883
1.0473
0.35
0.70407
0.0158
54
30.9
0.7013
1.0634
0.35
0.70801
0.0067
55
31.7
0.7143
1.1276
0.32
0.72339
0.0091
56
32
0.7273
1.1517
0.32
0.72898
0.0017
57
32.3
0.7403
1.1758
0.31
0.73449
0.0058
58
34.5
0.7532
1.3524
0.26
0.77211
0.0189
59
34.6
0.7662
1.3604
0.26
0.77371
0.0075
60
35.8
0.7792
1.4567
0.23
0.79216
0.0129
61
36.1
0.7922
1.4808
0.23
0.79656
0.0044
62
36.3
0.8052
1.4969
0.22
0.79945
0.0057
63
38.4
0.8182
1.6655
0.19
0.82770
0.0095
64
38.8
0.8312
1.6976
0.18
0.83266
0.0015
65
42.5
0.8442
1.9946
0.14
0.87278
0.0286
66
45
0.8571
2.1953
0.11
0.89465
0.0375
67
46.3
0.8701
2.2997
0.10
0.90457
0.0344
68
49
0.8831
2.5164
0.08
0.92243
0.0393
69
49.5
0.8961
2.5566
0.08
0.92536
0.0293
70
49.7
0.9091
2.5726
0.08
0.92651
0.0174
71
52.4
0.9221
2.7894
0.06
0.94039
0.0183
72
52.5
0.9351
2.7974
0.06
0.94085
0.0058
73
56.6
0.9481
3.1265
0.04
0.95708
0.0090
74
64
0.9610
3.7206
0.02
0.97607
0.0150
75
64.5
0.9740
3.7608
0.02
0.97700
0.0030
76
70
0.9870
4.2023
0.01
0.98515
0.0019
1888
43.8632
max=
S= 15.97608
o=
x = 24.843
n=
0.0552
0.2 para = 0.05
76
= 12.457
= 17.654
La informacin es:

CONFIABLE
Para T = 10 aos
1
1
()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )
De (): 1 P(X Q)
1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T
P(X Q) F(Q q ) F( Y )
F( Y ) 1
1
F( Y ) 0.9
10
Y Ln(Ln(0.9)) Y 2.250367327
Reemplazando el Y encontrado en la siguiente ecuacin obtenemos X:
2.250367327
X 17.654
X 45.68682579
12.457
Q=46 m3/s
Para T = 20 aos
1
1
()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )
De (): 1 P(X Q)
1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T
P(X Q) F(Q q ) F( Y )
F( Y ) 1
1
F( Y ) 0.95
20
Y Ln(Ln(0.95 )) Y 2.970195249
2.970195249
X 17.654
X 54.65372222
12.457
Q=55 m3/s
Para T = 25 aos
1
1
()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )
De (): 1 P(X Q)
1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T
P(X Q) F(Q q ) F( Y )
F( Y ) 1
1
F( Y ) 0.96
25
Y Ln(Ln(0.96)) Y 3.198534261
3.198534261
X 17.654
X 57.49814129
12.457
Q=57 m3/s
Para T = 50 aos
1
1
()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )
De (): 1 P(X Q)
1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T
P(X Q) F(Q q ) F( Y )
F( Y ) 1
1
F( Y ) 0.98
50
Y Ln(Ln(0.98)) Y 3.901938658
3.901938658
X 17.654
X 66.26044986
12.457
Q=66 m3/s
Para T = 100 aos

1
1
()
P( X x ) 1 P( X x )
De (): 1 P(X Q)
1
1
P( X Q) 1
T
T
P(X Q) F(Q q ) F( Y )
F( Y ) 1
1
F( Y ) 0.99
100
Y Ln(Ln(0.99)) Y 4.600149227
4.600149227
X 17.654
X 74.95805892
12.457
Q=75 m3/s

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DISTRIBUCIONES TERICAS

Si al efectuar esta operacin resulta valor

Con la informacin de la tabulacin A obtener la cultura de lluvia para una

B) GRAFICO DE DISTRIBUCIN DE PROBABILIDAD:

C) GRAFICO DE DISTRIBUCIN ACUMULADA DE PROBABILIDAD

Tabla 1: "DISTRIBUCION NORMAL ACUMULADA"

PRUEBAS DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE

.- Uso del Papel Probabilstico Normal

PRUEBAS DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE DE SMIRNOV - KOLMOGOROV

: Estadstico SMIRNOV KOLMOGOROV

: Probabilidad de la Distribucin de Ajuste o Terica.

: Probabilidad Experimental o Emprica de los Datos (Frecuencia acumulada).

Tabla N 2: Valores Crticos de 0 del Estadstico SMIRNOV KOLMOGOROV , para

El Estadstico , tiene su funcin de distribucin de probabilidades.

PROCEDIMIENTO PARA EFECTUAR EL AJUSTE MEDIANTE EL ESTADSTICO

Clculo de la Probabilidad Emprica o Experimental, P(X), de los datos (En

: Nmero total de valores de la Muestra.

: Nmero de orden de los valores ordenados de mayor a menor.

til la expresin de WEIBULL

Clculo Variable Estandarizada

Clculo: F(Z) P(X)

Seleccionar la Mxima Diferencia:

Hallar valor crtico del estadstico 0, para:

N = # de datos. (Ver tabla 1)

Comparar con 0, si:

Funcin Densidad de Probabilidad:

: Funcin Densidad Normal de Variable (X)

Es una funcin continua y simtrica con respecto a X.

Funcin Densidad de la Distribucin Normal Estndar:

Expresiones tiles para estimar valores:

, para luego establecer:

max mx. F(X ) P( X ) con los datos o informacin que se dispone.

HOJA DE CLCULO N 01 :AJUSTE MEDIANTE EL ESTADISTICO "SMIRNOV KOLMOGOROV"

(2) Con Redondeo

Resultado del Anlisis:

AJUSTE BUENO (max < o)

Interpolando obtenemos Z (I) = 1.281551724

Reemplazando el Z (I) encontrado en la siguiente ecuacin obtenemos X:

Interpolando obtenemos Z (I) = 1.644854369

Reemplazando el Z (I) encontrado en la siguiente ecuacin obtenemos X:

Interpolando obtenemos Z (I) = 1.750697674

Reemplazando el Z (I) encontrado en la siguiente ecuacin obtenemos X:

Interpolando obtenemos Z (I) =2.05375

Reemplazando el Z (I) encontrado en la siguiente ecuacin obtenemos X:

Para T = 100 aos

Interpolando obtenemos Z (I) = 2.326296296

Reemplazando el Z (I) encontrado en la siguiente ecuacin obtenemos X:

DISTRIBUCIN LOGARITMICA NORMAL DE 2 PARMETROS

La Funcin de Distribucin de Y es:

f (y), lo ponemos como f (x)

Por lo tanto; la funcin de Distribucin de la Probabilidad de X, es:

Expresiones tiles para estimar valores:

max mx. F(X ) P( X )

Tener Nivel de significancia.

Resultado del Anlisis:

AJUSTE BUENO (max < o)

Interpolando obtenemos Z (I) = 1.281551724

Reemplazando el Z (I) encontrado en la siguiente ecuacin obtenemos X:

Interpolando obtenemos Z (I) = 1.644854369

Reemplazando el Z (I) encontrado en la siguiente ecuacin obtenemos X:

Interpolando obtenemos Z (I) = 1.750697674

Reemplazando el Z (I) encontrado en la siguiente ecuacin obtenemos X:

Interpolando obtenemos Z (I) =2.05375