JOURNAL OF LIGHTWAVE TECHNOLOGY, VOL. 24, NO.

12, DECEMBER 2006

4697

Capacity Demand and Technology Challenges for

Lightwave Systems in the Next Two Decades
Emmanuel B. Desurvire, Fellow, IEEE

Invited Paper

AbstractTen to 20 years from now, optical networks will have

to carry vastly increased amounts of Internet traffic. Todays
knowledge (2006) already points to ultimate technology limits in
the physical layer, foretelling the end of the so-called Optical
Moores Law. Such an observation is discordant with the generic
and optimistic view of a virtually infinite optical bandwidth
combined with unlimited Internet-traffic growth. In order to meet
long-term needs and challenges, therefore, basic research in wideband optical components and subsystems must be urgently revived
today.
Index TermsBroadband telecommunications, coherent systems, internet-traffic growth, optical amplifiers, optical bandwidth, optical fibers, optical Moores law (OML), optoelectronics,
photonic networks, wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM).

I. I NTRODUCTION

HIS PAPER aims to address two key questions concerning

the long-term (1020 years) development of lightwave
systems.
1) What are the future fiber and capacity needs for point-topoint optical transport?
2) What are the main physical limits and corresponding
technology challenges that will have to be faced?
In attempting to provide answers to the above questions,
one must make some working assumptions and define a scope.
The central assumption is that, for at least 20 years, the bandwidth demand should continue to exponentially increase at
a constant growth rate or without saturation. The bandwidth
demand should remain unabated because of the never-ending
introduction of new broadband services (residential, enterprise,
intranets, databases, government, communities, . . .) having
in common the virtues of ever-increased affordability, userfriendliness, functionality, versatility, serendipity, interoperability, pervasiveness, and geographical globalization. Second,
the scope will exclusively be concerned with the physical layer
(or network layers-0/1), which plays the role of a transparent
pipe. In line with current view, the author shall conservatively
assume that future broadband networks will rely more and more
upon transparent optical transport. The issue to be addressed
then is the capacity demand and the fundamental limitations
Manuscript received May 20, 2006.
The author is with Alcatel, 91625 Villarceaux, France (e-mail: emmanuel.
desurvire@alcatel.fr).
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/JLT.2006.885772

of point-to-point optical transport between two remote L2/L3

hubs, whether in backbone, metropolitan, edge, or access networks. He must address the two previous questions in terms
of matching such capacity demand with the capacity offer of lightwave technologies, as determined by fundamental
limitations.
A safe guideline for long-term predictions is to avoid the
two extreme pitfalls of excessive conservatism and visionary
sci-fi. The first pitfall amounts to state that practically everything has been invented, hence, technology performance should
saturate soon to a plateau. Such a view has led often most
illustrious people or reference authorities to make incorrect
predictions, which feeds a humorous list of famous quotes.1
The second pitfall amounts to stating that everything is possible
and remains to be invented; hence, technology is virtually
infinite in performance possibilities, regardless of any physical
limitations. Such a view leads to fictional realities which are
either never attained or, at the very least, failing to anticipate
any true technology revolution. Predicting the long-term future
of lightwave systems is a risqu endeavor, as it seems difficult
indeed to develop an educated view keeping sufficiently away
from the two above pitfalls. A consensual view, which lies in
between, is that technology ought to progress anyway, no matter
the field, according to some serendipitous Moores Law. Playing with exponentials may, however, turn out overly optimistic
when extrapolated too far in the future.
This paper provides an opportunity to discuss whether or
not Moores Law is still applicable to lightwave communications. Consistently, with earlier prospective analysis [1], the
author shall escape the above dilemma by only considering
incremental progress (as predictable from what is known now)
and excluding disruptive progress (as unpredictable from any
scientific argumentation). We shall yet assume, for the next
20 years, a paradigm of technology-driven research, in the
opposite spirit of todays market-driven research. Such an optimistic view enables one to assume a slow but steady incremental progress in lightwave systems. As it shall be developed,
given two decades, even a relatively slow progress may lead
to up to the point of reaching fundamental limits. The key
conclusion of the authors analysis is twofold: 1) The explosive
1 See wrong/famous expert predictions websites, for instance: http://www.
heartquotes.net/Expert.html,
http://www.wilk4.com/humor/humore10.htm,
http://www.thecommittedsardine.net/infosavvy/laughs/predictions.pdf.

0733-8724/$20.00 2006 IEEE

4698

JOURNAL OF LIGHTWAVE TECHNOLOGY, VOL. 24, NO. 12, DECEMBER 2006

demand in lightwave capacity should put ever-increasing pressure on technology performance; and 2) to meet this challenge
and prepare for tomorrow, considerable research efforts must be
engaged today.
The remainder of this paper is organized as follows.
In Section II, the author shall first analyze the figures and
consequences of an exponential bandwidth demand, as based
upon different conservative projections concerning the growth
rate of the global Internet traffic, on one hand and that of
the installed submarine-cable capacity on the other hand. Such
projections make possible to predict the possibility of a globalnetwork saturation (or capacity exhaustion) within the said
1020-year period.
In Section III, he analyzes different evolution scenarios for
global fiber deployment, including the effect of fiber-to-thepremises (FTTP) and its bandwidth contribution to the global
(IP) traffic.
In Section IV, he considers the capacity (C) and distance
(D) and the C D indicator of lightwave-system performance
and revisits the so-called Optical Moores Law (OML). He
shows that, from current knowledge, the OML is less and less
likely to be verified in the long run, despite 30 years of faithful
compliance.
In Section V, he focuses of the bandwidth limitations due
to the effect of lightwave-capacity exhaustion, as based upon
current knowledge concerning the finite-transmission window
of optical fibers and, in particular, of optical-amplifier passbands. He suggests a global roadmap combining options for
ultrabroadband (multiterahertz) amplification and bandwidthefficient modulation formats.
In Section VI, he explores the issue of ultimate limits in the
exploitation of bandwidth. These limits are addressed in terms
of information-spectral density (ISD), as based upon principles
of information theory and bandwidth-efficient possibilities offered by coherent-modulation formats. These principles must
be also considered in the nonlinear-transmission regime, which
sets yet another upper boundary to the ISD and maximum
system capacity.
Section VII summarizes the key observations made in the
previous sections and sketches research avenues, which could
be explored today in order to meet tomorrows capacity needs
and challenges in lightwave systems.
II. E XPONENTIAL B ANDWIDTH D EMAND
In the year 2000, it was projected as well as verified since,
that the global-network traffic will be rapidly dominated by IP
data, overcoming traditional voice and other data-transaction
formats [2]. Fig. 1 shows the corresponding projections of
global-traffic growth by client segments at the time. The yearly
growth rates are 8% for voice, 34% for transaction data, and
157% for Internet, totaling a 157% global rate. The expectation
for the global (IP-dominated) 2006 traffic is 4.5 Tb/s.
Fig. 2 shows the global IP-traffic figures as actualized in
years 2005 and 2006 [3] (data being extrapolated here up to
2010). In year 2005, the predicted yearly growth is 115%
(as based upon 20032004 actual figures), while in 2006, the
rate drops to 22/45%, according to low/high estimates. These

Fig. 1. Growth of global traffic by client segments (voice, transaction data,

and Internet), as viewed from year 2000 [2]. The figures in parenthesis indicate
the projected yearly growth rates for each segment.

Fig. 2. Growth of global IP traffic, as viewed from year 2000 and reactualized
in 2005 and 2006 [3]. The figures in parenthesis indicate the projected yearly
growth rates for each segment.

estimates will be used further down when considering longterm projections. Note that the 20052006 data shown in Fig. 2
correspond to average traffic, as opposed to peak traffic, which
is typically 52%54% greater (say 50% at least), and to the
provisioned Internet bandwidth (see further below), which is
typically 100% greater than the latter. Fig. 2 shows that in
absolute value, the low/high estimates of global 2006 IP traffic
is 1.31.4 Tb/s for average traffic or 2.12.2 Tb/s for peak
traffic.
The above yearly growth figures for the global IP traffic
actually represent a world average. In some geographical areas,
the traffic growth can be substantially higher or lower than this
average, for instance 434% in Asia and 82% in Europe during
the 20032004 period [3]. A finer grained indicator of localtraffic growth also distinguishes between the routes connected
to the U.S. and those not connected. For Asia and Latin
America, the latter is twofold to fivefold higher than the former
(or 102% and 336% growth, respectively) [3], illustrating a
trend of rapid local (intra/interregional)-network deployment,
in contrast to the global picture. In order to avoid the complexity
of dealing with these different statistics, he chooses in the
foregoing to focus on a more straightforward indicator, which is
undersea capacity, as flowing through lit (or provisioned) fiberoptic transoceanic cable systems. The author will then be able

DESURVIRE: CAPACITY DEMAND AND TECHNOLOGY CHALLENGES FOR LIGHTWAVE SYSTEMS

Fig. 3. Evolution of lit undersea capacity through 19992006 over different

oceanic routes [3].

Fig. 4. Map of U.S.-connected Internet routes in mid-2005. The aggregateprovisioned Internet bandwidth for the Atlantic, Pacific, and U.S./LatinAmerica routes are indicated (courtesy of Primetrica, inc. 2006 [3]).

to make meaningful comparisons between lit undersea capacity

and the interregional-IP traffic taking the corresponding routes.
Fig. 3 shows the historical evolution of lit undersea capacity over different transoceanic routes through the period
19992006 (after data from [3]). The figure reveals that
the undersea capacity is largely dominated by the Atlantic
(or U.S.Europe)-cable systems, followed by the Pacific (or
U.S.Asia/Australia)-cable systems, corresponding in 2006
to 3.0 and 1.45 Tb/s, respectively. In sharp contrast, the
EuropeAfricaAsia systems (88 Gb/s in 2006), which represent less than 1.5% of all the other systems, combined. The
Atlantic data will be reused further below when considering
long-term projections.
Fig. 4 shows a map of U.S.-connected Internet routes having
at least 9-Gb/s provisioned-aggregate capacity, as per mid2005 [3]. The lines thickness reflects the provisioned Internet
bandwidth (U.S. and Canada being combined). It is shown from
the figure that the Atlantic, Pacific, and U.S./Latin-America
routes have Internet bandwidths of 668.8, 307.3 (N.B. excluding Australia), and 100.9 Gb/s, respectively. Compared to the
data of Fig. 3, these represent 22%, 21%, and 13.5% of the
lit capacities of the corresponding routes. Such a comparison
indicates that the current submarine-cable systems are provisioned well in excess of the actual IP-traffic needs. However,

4699

Fig. 5. Prospective (20062026) mean-IP traffic over Atlantic route according

to low (22%) and high (45%) annual growth scenarios. The corresponding lit
capacity is assumed to grow at a 13% annual rate.

these ratios should not be interpreted as measuring the actual

capacity underuse or the network overbuilt. This is because
the notion of lit capacity follows definition rules that are
somewhat more complex than that of mere IP bandwidth.
For instance, the former includes private-IP traffic (intranets),
which is not included in the later definition. Suffice it to state
here that the actual overbuilt is not as large as the above ratios
seem to imply.
The Atlantic and Pacific routes are shown from Fig. 4 to represent major gateways for Internet globalization. They have the
longest unrepeated distances (6500/7500 and 8000/12 000 km,
respectively), and they carry the highest aggregate capacities,
which altogether represent the maximum technology challenge, as discuss further in Section IV. In the foregoing, the
author will focus on the Atlantic-IP traffic, which represents a
simple but key-traffic indicator for a long-term prospective of
capacity needs.
Summarizing previous data, the authors starting assumptions for the Atlantic route, circa 2006, are as follows:
1) a provisioned Internet capacity or bandwidth of
668.8 Gb/s;
2) a low/high growth rate for the mean-IP traffic of 22/45%;
3) a lit submarine-cable capacity of 3.0 Tb/s growing at an
annual rate of 13% (as from Fig. 3).
As seen earlier, the Internet capacity is typically 100%
greater than the peak-IP traffic, and the latter is typically
50% (at least) greater than the mean-IP traffic. This gives
2006
for the mean-IP traffic over the Atlantic route: B Atlantic =

668.8/(2 1.5) 223 Gb/s. These data make possible to extrapolate the Atlantics mean-IP traffic over the period 20062026,
as illustrated in Fig. 5.
The figure shows that in the low-growth scenario (22%),
the lit capacity, although with a 13% growth rate, remains
far more than adequate to carry the IP traffic (the crossover
between the two curves, not shown here, occurring in year
2040). This situation would mean a progressive decline in the
deployment of new submarine-cable systems with a growth
rate readjusted to a heuristic value below 13% per year. In the
high-growth scenario (45%), however, an alarming situation

4700

takes place when reaching year 2015: Indeed, the mean-IP

traffic becomes dangerously close to the lit capacity, meaning a
risk of bandwidth overflow during peak-traffic activity. Beyond
year 2015, the traffic demand far exceeds the lit capacity,
which corresponds to the catastrophic scenario of a global
World Wide Wait. By year 2010, however, the submarinecable industry would likely anticipate the effect by increasing
the lay-down of new cables with a rate substantially higher
than 13% per year. It should be emphasized that the high
growth scenario of 45% per year is a reasonably conservative
one: It is equivalent to a doubling of the Internet bandwidth
every 1.86 year (or one year and 10 mo). It also represents
a rather strong correction of the aforementioned 20032004
prediction of 115% per year (doubling every 0.9 year or
11 mo).
The above demonstration recalls the elementary fact that
an exponential growth can produce surprising results when
projected into sufficiently long periods of time. Thus, the
crossover point of a catastrophic situation (such as the Word
Wide Wait scenario) can come into the picture much faster
than anticipated, and the possibilities for the submarine-cable
industry to immediately react could be limited. It is noteworthy
that no basic law can predict the transoceanic-traffic growth
over such long periods. This is unlike the earlier 19501990
era, which was concerned by synchronous-digital hierarchy
(SDH) voice-circuit growth patterns (as easily correlated with
demography and incumbent/monopolistic operator estimates)
and characterized by a steady 25%-per-year growth for both
Atlantic and Pacific [4]. Clearly, IP-traffic growth and its
consequence for undersea capacity provisioning escapes any
dependable modeling. This creates an odd situation, where
todays undersea-cable infrastructure might be wholly adequate
to handle the IP-traffic demand in the middle term, with more
than sufficient provisioning margins, while the long term could
bring a radically different scenario for which this industry could
be unprepared, despite year-to-year monitoring of increasing
capacity-demand trends. It is true that more cable systems can
be laid down, with more fibers bundled into a single cable.
However, such a solution only works to a limited extent due to
the costs in system deployment and operation (CAPEX/OPEX),
as well as the basic electrical/mechanical engineering constraints in scaling up single-cable capacities with fiber bundles.
The only answer to the problem is to scale up of the fiber
capacity itself.
Ultimately, many market observers and sometimes confirmed
technology specialists trust that optical fibers have a virtually
infinite bandwidth. In such a view, it is only the matter to
Research and Development to find new ways or innovative
tricks to tap further into this unlimited resource. More concern is the popular confidence in the so-called Optical Moores
Law, as grounded from 30 years of unabated capacity progress
in lightwave systems. As will be discussed in Section IV, the
extrapolation to 1020 years of such a law turns out catastrophic
and, overall, deceptive. Yet, in the high growth scenario,
the data in Fig. 5 call for transatlantic (aggregate) capacities
for mean-IP traffic of 30 Tb/s in 2019 and 100 Tb/s in 2022
(not shown), representing a tenfold to a 30-fold increase of
the current (2006) lit capacity (actually a 2060-fold increase,

JOURNAL OF LIGHTWAVE TECHNOLOGY, VOL. 24, NO. 12, DECEMBER 2006

Fig. 6. Evolution (19962008) of installed fiber annual growth for U.S., ROW,
and world total (after data from [5]).

taking into account necessary bandwidth margins). This figure

of 100 Tb/s shall be kept in mind for transoceanic traffic in
the 20-years horizon to compare it further down to the ultimate
bandwidth offer of optical fibers.
III. F IBER D EPLOYMENT
Another key indicator in optical-telecommunications industry is the growth of the fiber-km installed base. Fig. 6 shows
the evolution of this indicator for the U.S. and the combined
world total over the period 19962009 [5]. Three regions or
eras are shown from the figure:
1) the fiber-glut era, characterized by an exponential production and leading to a world-total peak of 90 million
fiber-kilometers per year;
2) the bubble era, in which the production stabilizes then
suddenly drops to about 50% of the peak;
3) the recovery era, characterized by a healthy return to
growth (namely for 2005: 15.8% per year for the U.S.;
8.6% per year for world total).
The detailed data in [5] also show that during 20052009,
the combined U.S., China, and Japan demand should account
for 69% of the global installed-fiber production.
To visualize what a production of 10 M fiber kilometer per
year actually represents, a straightforward conversion shows
that it corresponds to an equivalent fiber-drawing speed of
317 m/s, which is nearly the velocity of sound in air (343 m/s
at 20 C)! Such a comparison just illustrates the truly phenomenal rates at which optical fibers are manufactured, even
in the current recovery era (22 and 63 M fiber kilometer per
year for U.S. and world total in year 2006, respectively). From
the data in Fig. 6, one can also estimate the cumulated or total
installed fiber length over the last ten years (19972006). The
result comes to the impressive figures of 593 (world total) and
182 million fiber-kilometers (U.S.), which approximately represent 15 000 and 4500 times the Earth circumference, respectively. Combining additional data in [6] with the ones above,
the 2006 world total and U.S. fiber plant are estimated to be 746
and 223 million fiber-kilometers, respectively. The breakdown
according to different cable-service/operator types can be found
in this reference.

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4701

TABLE I
PROJECTED ANNUAL FIBER-INSTALLATION GROWTH (MILLION
FIBER-KILOMETERS PER YEAR) FOR THE NEXT 1020-YEAR PERIOD

TABLE II
PROJECTED U.S., ROW, AND GLOBAL FIBER PLANT (MILLION
FIBER-KILOMETERS) FOR THE NEXT 1020-YEAR PERIOD

The data in Fig. 6 make possible to extrapolate the fiberkilometer indicator to the next 1020 years. Table I provides
the projected data assuming steady growths of 6% (U.S.) and
4% [rest of the world (ROW)], based upon the (conservative)
2009-growth figures.
Table II shows the corresponding data in terms of total fiber
plant. These projections indicate that, assuming conservative
growth without saturation, the worlds fiber annual production should return to the same level as of the bubble peak
(90 million fiber-kilometers per year) near 2013 and be higher
by about 1.75 times near 2026. As for the U.S., the match
with the Bubble peak (30 million fiber-kilometers per year) is
attained near 2010 with a factor of about 2.5 times in 2026. As
Table II shows, the world, U.S., and ROW fiber plants roughly
double in size every decade.
The return to growth of fiber production, as sketched by the
above (conservative) projections, can be attributed to two main
driving factors: 1) the continued deployment, internetworking, and upgrade of global optical-backbone infrastructures
(continentalterrestrial and submarine) and 2) the new-built or
overbuilt deployment of broadband optical access, also known
as FTTP and passive optical networks (PON) or Point-to-Point
Ethernet/All-Optical Ethernet Network (P2PE/AOEN). Here,
for simplicity, the author shall use FTTP as a generic denomination for the different varieties of fiber-based bandwidthintensive services for residential and enterprise customers. In
the foregoing, the contribution of FTTP to the expansion of the
global fiber plant, and next, the global (IP) traffic growth shall
be analyzed.
The current 2006 period is only witnessing the early beginnings of FTTP within aggressive roll-out plans, which mostly
concern the U.S., Japan, and Korea.2 The initial adoption of
FTTP services, in replacement of the ubiquitous digital subscriber line (DSL), is yet expected to remain relatively slow.
By the year 2009, the global adoption of FTTP in broadband
services should be only about 4.5% [7]. A caveat in the FTTP
growth estimates is the distinction between home passed (the
number of home/premises that can be physically connected)
and the lower number of actual subscribers. The difference
between the former and the latter leads to a threefold to five2 See for instance, http://www.corning.com/docs/opticalfiber/cm66230.pdf.
[Online]. Available: http://www.corning.com/docs/opticalfiber/cm9570.pdf.

Fig. 7. Projected number of FTTP home passed in Eu-25, Japan, and the U.S.
for the 20042010 period.

fold overestimation of the actual service deployment [7]. The

following analysis is based on publicly available data on the
main FTTP roll-out plans concerning the U.S., Europe, and
Japan.35 Such data have only an indicative character and are
used for the sake of a rough-prediction exercise [1]. Fig. 7
shows the predicted number of home passed for the 20042010
period. The total amounts to 70 million homes in year 2010.
As previously mentioned the corresponding number of actual
subscribers is expected to be three to five times less, namely
here, about 1525 million, which is fairly consistent with other
projections [8].
Next, the author shall estimate the impact of FTTP/PON in
the expansion of the global fiber plant. Such an estimate must
take into account two main parameters. The first parameter is
the number N of fiber splits or of end-customers serviced
by a single FTTP/PON loop. This number varies according
to PON standards, namely N = 16 for EPON, N = 32 for
BPON, and N = 64 for GPON [9]. The second parameter is the
loop length. As described in [7], North America is particularly
challenging because of the relatively long-loop lengths involved
in the urban/suburban areas: Indeed, only 26% of the population
are within 1.4 km (45 kft) of the Central Office, while 73% are
within 3.6 km (12 kft). In the U.S., the average loop length is
3.3 km [6], which the author will keep as a worst-case
reference to assess global world figures. The loop itself generally includes a feeder section (2.4 km), a distribution
section (0.6 km), and a drop section. (0.3 km) [6]. The fiber
feeder being shared by all N end-users, a trivial calculation
yields an equivalent fiber lengths per user, which varies from
0.95 km (N = 64) to 1.05 km (N = 16). He then approximates
the fiber/user length to 1.0 km. Assuming 1525 million FTTP
3 For U.S., see press releases from SBC (18 M homes in 2007) and Verizon
(3/10 M homes in 2005/2009); see also F. Fuentes, FTTH: it is here it is now.
Lets make it happen in Europe!, FTTH Council. [Online]. Available: http://
medicongress.be/UploadBroad/Session%2000/Plenary%20Session%2000-05/
Presentation%2000-5-05.pdf.
4 For Europe (25 countries), data are from "Mass market fiber remains distant
on the European horizon," Yankee Group, December 2004.
5 For Japan (30 M homes passed in 2010); see S. Hanatani, FTTH
deployment in Asia-Pacific (case study: Japan), presented at Proc. FTTH
Council Eur., Amsterdam Conf. [Online]. Available: http://medicongress.
be/UploadBroad/Session%2000/Plenary%20Session%2000-05/Presentation%
2000-5-05.pdf.

4702

subscribers in 2010 (as previously established), the global

amount of fiber to be deployed worldwide is thus 1525 million fiber-kilometers. This value represents an average deployment of 2.5 to 4 million fiber-kilometer per year during the
20052010 period. Such a rate is about ten times lower than the
expected production illustrated in Fig. 6, which means that even
in the worst-case reference, FTTP/PON should represent only
a small fraction the installed-fiber indicator.
Next, the author shall estimate the global FTTP traffic.
Such a traffic can be roughly estimated by assuming average uplink/downlink rates of 0.1/1 Gb/s, which represents an
ad hoc simplification of different FTTP/PON service rates
(i.e., 155 Mb/s uplink and 155622 Mb/s downlink for BPON,
0.6221.252.5 Gb/s uplink and 1.252.5 Gb/s downlink for
GPON, 1.25/1.25 Gb/s for EPON [9]) and effective use. Assuming 20 million subscribers in 2010, the total average FTTP
traffic is thus estimated to be 2 Pb/s (2000 Tb/s) for uplink and
20 Pb/s for downlink. These traffic projections can be compared
to those of global IP traffic for the same year 2010 (as shown in
Fig. 2), i.e., 3 and 6 Pb/s for the low- and high-growth scenarios,
respectively. The agreement between the two is shown to be
well within an order of magnitude. Does this imply
1) that future global IP traffic will be essentially dominated
by FTTP/PON demand?;
2) that the FTTP/PON traffic, due to its locality and protocol
specificity will remain outside the global IP-traffic statistics?; or
3) to the contrary, that the global IP traffic should include a
substantial fraction of FTTP/PON traffic (in which case
the scenarios in Fig. 2 are overly pessimistic)?
It is tempting to answer negatively to the first two questions
and positively to the last one, considering that 1) the previous
FTTP/PON traffic estimates are based upon actual roll-out
plans and conservative uplink/downlink rate assumptions,
2) there is no indication at present that the FTTP/PON is meant
to be exclusively used for local distribution services (e.g., highdefinition TV, video-on-demand), and 3) FTTP/PON is also a
gateway for broadband IP access or high-speed Internet (HSI)
and global IP-TV services, meaning that this new source of
traffic may eventually have a significant impact in the globaltraffic picture. Should this be a valid speculation, then the
high estimate of IP traffic growth of 45% per year could
turn out to be largely under estimated or pessimistic. Then,
the consequence in bandwidth saturation in the oceanic routes
(Fig. 5) could be dramatic.
IV. C APACITY AND D ISTANCE : T HE O PTICAL M OORE S
L AW R EVISITED
In optical communications, raw-transmission performance
can be measured in terms of either capacity (in gigabits
or terabits) or distance (in 100100010 000 km) meaning
in both cases error-free reception, i.e., with bit-error-rates
(BERs) after errorcorrection decoding significantly better than
108 109 . Actually, neither the capacity nor distance indicators are meaningful as absolute references, if taken separately.
This is because achievable capacities are always higher over

JOURNAL OF LIGHTWAVE TECHNOLOGY, VOL. 24, NO. 12, DECEMBER 2006

shorter distances and distances are always longer with lower capacities. There also exists several hidden parameters in the mere
capacity or distance indicators, as the author shall describe next.
A first hidden parameter in the (C) capacity indicator is
the channel rate B used for wavelength-division multiplexing
(WDM), e.g., B = 2.5, 10, 40, or 160 Gb/s (the capacity being
the product C = B N , where N is the number of WDM
channels). The higher the channel rate B, the more difficult it is
to achieve a given capacity C or distance D.
A second hidden parameter in both (C, D) indicators is
the amplifier spacing Z or distance between two line-optical
amplifiers (LOFA), e.g., Z = 50 km (submarine systems),
100120 km (terrestrial systems), or 30600 km (repeaterless
systems). The longer the amplifier spacing, the more difficult to
achieve a given capacity C or distance D.
A third hidden parameter in both (C, D) indicators is the
fiber type, e.g., single-mode fiber (SMF) with 1.3-m zero
dispersion, dispersion-shifted-fiber (DSF) with 1.55-m zero
dispersion, special fibers having large-effective areas (LEA)
of flattened dispersion, and many variants thereof. Finally, the
technique of inline all-optical 3R regeneration (AOR) makes
possible to achieve virtually infinite-transmission distances, so
far at WDM channel rates up to 40 Gb/s [10]. In AOR systems,
distance is thus not a true performance indicator as in LOFAbased systems. Here, the author will not consider AOR because
its prospects for ultrabroadband applications are still very slim.
A fourth hidden parameter in both (C, D) indicators is the
bandwidth efficiency, more correctly referred to as ISD.
The ISD is typically measured by the WDM channel spacing
(e.g., S = 2550 GHz for 10-Gb/s channels). Given the utilized bandwidth, N S, as expressed in hertz, the efficiency
is = C/(N S), as expressed in bits per second per hertz.
For intensity-modulation/direct-detection (IM-DD) signals and
other AM/PM formats based upon direct detection (referred to
here as APM-DD), such efficiency is bound to unity, namely
= 1 b/s/Hz. In Section VI, recalling other modulation formats
based upon multilevel signaling, make possible to achieve >
1 b/s/Hz, hence, the more appropriate notion of ISD. The higher
the ISD, the better use of bandwidth and the more difficult to
achieve the same capacity of distance as with lower ISDs.
The many aforementioned technical subtleties and their hidden parameters make virtually impossible to compare in all
rigor or fairness the different system approaches as to their
capacity/distance performance potentials. Despite the difficulty,
the capacity-distance product indicator C D, as expressed
in bits-kilometer per second, has been widely accepted by the
community to represent a global figure of merit for the historical evolution of lightwave systems. The exponential growth
of the C D figure, faithfully achieved over decades, set the
grounds of a mythic Optical Moores Law [11][14].
The original (1965) Moores Law predicted future doubling
of integrated circuits (IC) per square inch every 1.5 years (also
interpreted indifferently and sometimes confusingly as a doubling computing power or a halving of cost per chip). As a matter of fact, it has remained controversial for its actual predictive
power, since the doubling period has been constantly readjusted
according to time [15], [16]. Concerning OML, the situation is
somewhat different, as the author shall describe next.

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through, unlike the previous ones. Rather, it involves a seamless

progression of breakthroughs, hence, the smooth and extended
C D envelope covering the full 19902006 period in Fig. 8.
The current C D performance is seen to be in the
range of 50100 Pb-km/s (or equivalently, 510 Tb/s over
10 000 km), which represents no less than eight orders of magnitude improvement since the inception of lightwave systems!
As the figure also illustrates, an OML representing a tenfold
C D increase every four years can be heuristically derived
from the 30-year period shown. More precisely, one obtains
C DPbkm/s = 5.178 2Y /1.053

Fig. 8. Growth of the C D indicator, illustrating an Optical Moores Law

corresponding to a tenfold increase every four years as a heuristic Optical
Moores Law.

Fig. 8 shows a plot of the C D indicator covering a period

of over 30 years [12].
The different families of points shown in Fig. 8 illustrate five
generations of lightwave systems
1) 0.8 m laser sources and multimode fibers;
2) 1.3 m SMF and lasers;
3) 1.5 m DSF and laser sources;
4) coherent transmission;
5) optically amplified transmission with erbium-doped fiber
amplifiers (EDFA), WDM, and later developments.
Clearly, the first three generations were based upon progress
in fiber technology (multimode to single-mode, SMF to
DSF) and semiconductor laser sources (GaAs at 0.8 m to
InGaAs/InGaAsP at 1.3 m then 1.55 m), which corresponds
to the exploitation of the first, second, and third transmission windows, respectively. The fourth generation of coherent
systems initially appeared as the next disruptive move with
the promise to enhance the (photon/bit) receiver sensitivities
and, hence, the transmission distances. By 1990, the C D
indicator reached a plateau situated below 1000 Gbit-km/s,
representing maximum transmission performances of 1 Gb/s
over 5001000 km. The fifth generation, which was prompted
by the laser-diode-pumped EDFA, is quite different from the
previous ones. Indeed, the EDFA precursor has also represented
the enabler of several complementary technologies:
1) WDM: the exploitation of the amplifier/gain bandwidth;
2) DM or dispersion management: the techniques for compensating fiber-chromatic dispersion over the multiplex
band;
3) FEC or forward error correction: the electronic-signal
processing to compensate signal-to-noise (SNR) degradation due to EDFA noise and fiber nonlinearities;
4) C + L amplification: the doubling of the EDFA-gain
band;
5) Raman, or distributed Raman amplification: the EDFA
companion for improving the SNR and extending the gain
bandwidth, or as a stand-alone, full LOFA substitute.
According to the above view, the fifth generation of lightwave systems does not represent a single-technology break-

(1)

where the variable Y means current year minus 2000.

A C D doubling is thus obtained every 1.053 year, or
12.6 mo, which corresponds to a doubling rate greater than the
original Moores Law for ICs.
With the calibrated OML at hand, it is then tempting to
make projections for the next 1020 years. Thus, we obtain,
for 2015, C D = 100 500 Pb-km/s and for 2025: C D =
72 500 000 Pb-km/s.
For a 10 000 km (10 Mm) link, the two above figures represent aggregate bit rates (per fiber) of 10 050 and 7 250 000 Tb/s,
respectively! Based upon todays status, the technology would
thus have to progress by a thousandfold to a millionfold, which
truly defies imagination. The next section addresses the issue
of setting limits to the C D performance by considering
fundamental technology limitations.
V. L IGHTWAVE -C APACITY E XHAUSTION
The long-term OML estimates lead us to a seemingly
intractable problem of defining actual limits for the C or C D
performance indicators. Since (contrary to popular belief)
optical bandwidth is not infinite, what is, in the first place, the
maximum achievable C value, which would exhaust lightwave
capacity? To answer such a question, consider fiber bandwidth
in the transparency region, as defined by an attenuation
coefficient less than 1 dB/km. From standard data (fusedsilica fibers of the highest purity), such a region corresponds
to the 1.01.7 m wavelength range or approximately
Bmax = 125 THz. The issues of cutoff shifting to less than
1 m wavelength, single-mode guiding, dispersion flattening,
and microbending loss are overlooked here, assuming that some
hypothetical technology could deliver such an ultrabroadband
fiber. This fiber bandwidth being Bmax = 125 THz, the
maximum achievable WDM capacity with IM-DD/APM-DD
modulation/detection schemes is Cmax = 125 Tb/s. One must
also assume that future technologies would make possible to
develop compact laser sources with an emission range spanning
1.01.7 m. It is also possible to envision the introduction of Mary formats based upon coherent amplitude/phase modulationdetection schemes. To recall, M-ary formats make possible
to achieve ISDs up to = log2 M b/s/Hz [17], [18]. Thus, a
quaternary format such as 4-quadrature-amplitude modulation
(QAM) is characterized by an ISD of = 2 b/s/Hz (or one
di-bit word per QAM symbol), which enables the doubling
of the effective transmitted capacity, or Bmax = 250 Tb/s.

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Considering the aforementioned technology constraints and

the additional difficulty of implementing coherent transmitters/receivers, one may view the approach of M-ary formats as a
complementary means toward reaching 125-Tb/s capacities, as
opposed to a solution making possible to break such a limit. The
subject of coherent formats and their potential use in broadband
transmission will be addressed again in the next section.
With IM-DD/APM-DD systems, an aggregate capacity of
125 Tb/s would correspond to
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)

12 500 WDM channels at 10 Gb/s;

3125 WDM channels at 40 Gb/s;
1250 WDM channels at 100 Gb/s;
780 WDM channels at 160 Gb/s;
390 WDM channels at 320 Gb/s (etc.).

The above inventory points to yet another formidable technology challenge. Indeed, the number of WDM channels
(hence of transmitter/receivers) can be reduced by increasing the channel rate by twofold or fourfold. However, the
approach puts the load on the optoelectronics circuitry and
the driving electronics. The WDM-channel tributaries must
be electronically multiplexed and then demutliplexed in the
time domain (ETDM), which raises issues of synchronization, absolute-frequency reference, and timing-jitter suppression. Channel rates up to 160320 Gb/s can be achieved by
optical-multiplexing (OTDM) techniques, but OTDM raises
issues similar to those found with ETDM, with supplemental
difficulties:
1) the generation of ultrashort pulses (< 10 ps) with highextinction ratio (to avoid intersymbol interference);
2) the increase of peak power and spectral width, causing
nonlinear instabilities (e.g., self-phase modulation, selfinduced Raman scattering);
3) the operation of time-domain demultiplexing (which requires ultrafast optical gates);
4) the electronic identification of TDM tributaries.
The technical complexity of ETDM/OTDM, in addition to
the above-listed issues make difficult to conceive that the WDM
channel rates could migrate beyond 40 Gb/s. The problem to
be solved is then the realization of a 125-THz laser comb with
3125 WDM channels. The solution would necessarily rely upon
massive component integration, with tens of lasers/receivers
fitting into single chips or photonic IC (PIC). Recent laboratory
demonstration of 10 10 Gb/s and 10 40 Gb/s PICs
[19], [20] indicate that such a technology could be at hand,
despite the time required for full product qualification toward a
massive, N 40 Gb/s, multiterahertz-technology perspective.
Assuming that 125-THz WDM combs would be available,
along with 125-THz optical fibers and amplifiers (see further
below), a transoceanic system based upon these technologies would have the ultimate performance of (C D)max =
1 250 Pb-km/s. If the OML was still valid, even for the short
term, according to (1) such a limit would be reached as early as
2008!
The above technology-fiction exercise provides as many
solid arguments against the blind continuation of the OML,
even in a few years span. As per 2006 of this paper and despite
the phenomenal progress accomplished since the inception of

Fig. 9. Rescaled OML for transoceanic (10 000 km distances) capacity.

According to this model, incremental technology in smooth continuation of
the current lightwave-system generation would lead to 100-Tbit/s capacity in
year 2025. This is in contrast with the unlikely possibility of a new disruptive
generation to perpetuate the OML up to 7 million Tb/s in the same time horizon.

lightwave-transmission systems, we are still quite far from

having exhausted the optical-fiber capacity, based upon a
maximum bandwidth of Bmax = 125 THz. For this reason, the
author shall propose here to rescale the OML by projecting for
year 2025 a conservative C = 100 Tb/s aggregate capacity
over transoceanic (10 000 km) distance, corresponding to the
indicator C D = 1 000 Pb-km/s, as illustrated in Fig. 9.
According to the new model, the rescaled OML becomes
C DPbkm/s = 10 2Y /3.75

(2)

implying that the performance doubles only every 3.75 years or

45 mo. In the strict interpretation of the performance indicator,
a figure of C D = 1 000 Pb-km/s is also equivalent to 1 Pb/s
over 1000 km. Given a fiber bandwidth of Bmax = 125 THz,
such a performance would be theoretically achievable using coherent formats with and ISD of = 8 b/s/Hz (e.g., 256 QAM).
As previously mentioned, the technology for long-distance
transmission of 100 Tb/s capacities would have to provide ultrabroadband amplifiers covering said fiber bandwidth of Bmax =
125 THz or approaching. According to current knowledge, can
such ultrabroadband optical amplifiers be ever realized?
To answer the above question, consider the transmission window of fused-silica fibers (according to their generic decibelper-kilometer attenuation) in the 1.21.7-m wavelength range,
along with the different standard/ITU optical-amplification
bands, as shown in Fig. 10 [21], [22].
The ITU amplifier bands, which cover 59 THz altogether,
have been named O (for original), E (for extended), S
(for short-wavelength), C (for conventional), L (for longwavelength), and U/XL (for ultra/extra-long wavelength).
The corresponding wavelength ranges and bandwidths are
listed in Table III.
Apart from the case of the S/C/L bands of EDFAs, various
other rare-earth doping possibilities exist, such as based upon
praseodymium (Pr), neodymium (Nd), and thulium (Tu) [21].
It is noteworthy that rare-earth-doped fiber amplifiers (REFA)
other than EDFAs require nonsilica-based glasses (such as
based upon fluorides, tellurites, . . .), which introduces complex technology issues in chemical stability, fiber-waveguide

DESURVIRE: CAPACITY DEMAND AND TECHNOLOGY CHALLENGES FOR LIGHTWAVE SYSTEMS

Fig. 10. Transmission window of fused-silica fibers showing standard opticalamplification bands (O, E, S, C, L, and U/XL).
TABLE III
WAVELENGTH RANGES AND BANDWIDTHS OF THE DIFFERENT ITU
AMPLIFICATION BANDS SHOWN IN FIG . 10

manufacturing, and splicing with telecom fibers. A recent

overview of the achievable wavelength ranges or bandwidths
corresponding to the different REFA amplification bands can
be found in [22][24].
The difficulty for achieving broadband amplification by combining discrete REFAs is manifold. First, each REFA type
requires specific pump wavelengths and fiber-glass matrices,
which represents as many different technologies, which are
costly to develop, qualify, and integrate in compact modules.
Second, the combined gain passbands do not form a continuum
and exhibit sizeable gain differences and intraband excursions,
which requires band-splitting, equalization filtering, and complex multipumping configurations. To date, the most widely
used implementation is the C + L EDFA, which offers a
60-nm bandwidth [21][23]. With ErTm codoped C + L
and S + C REFAs, the achievable bandwidth are 38/50 and
80 nm, respectively [23], [24]. The S + C amplifier can be
completed with a hybrid EDFA/TDFA parallel section providing altogether a uniform gain passband of 148 nm (or
18.8 THz), covering the 14631617 nm region in two closely
adjacent bands [24]. To date, this appears to be the maximum
bandwidth achievable with REFAs.
An alternative to REFAs is the Raman fiber amplifier (RFA),
which offers several key advantages. The first advantage is
that Raman amplification, which is based upon the effect of
stimulated Raman scattering (SRS), can be implemented in
standard silica fibers (for distributed amplification) or other
nonstandard fiber materials (for lumped amplification). The
second advantage is that the RFA is effectively tunable (the gain
center-wavelength being determined by the pump wavelength).
Finally, the RFA has a relatively broad gain passband, i.e.,
12.5 THz (the Stokes shift) for silica glass, corresponding

4705

to 100 nm at 1.55 m [21]. In tellurite glasses, the Stokes

shift is 21 THz, corresponding to 170 nm [25]. Finally, the
RFA passband can be expanded by combining pumps at different wavelengths. Hybrid configurations of REFAs and RFAs
are also possible. For instance, a record gain passband of
17.7 THz was achieved with a S + C + L + U EDFA/
TDFA/RFA configuration [21], [26].
The two other known means of optical amplification in
the telecom windows are the semiconductor optical amplifier
(SOA) and the optical parametric amplifier (OPA). The SOA
offers the combined assets of gain tuneability from 1.3 to
1.6 m (as determined by semiconductor bandgap and secondary temperature) and wide-gain bandwidths (up to 25 THz
[27]). It is also powered by direct-injection current, as opposed
to (comparatively) cumbersome optical pumping. However,
three key disadvantages of the SOA are its residual-polarization
sensitivity (approx. 0.10.2 dB), its comparatively higher noise
figure (essentially an effect of fiber/chip input coupling loss),
and its fast-gain dynamics (200 ps to 1 ns) causing patterning
effects and WDM-channel crosstalk. It is noted that this last
issue is alleviated by using constant-envelope formats such
as phase-shift keying (PSK) or frequency-shift keying (FSK).
Concerning the OPA, its key asset is its broad-gain tuneability,
from visible to infrared wavelengths. However, phase matching
between pump and WDM signals is required, which imposes
severe constraints on fiber dispersion or requires dispersion flattening. In the last case however, massive WDM implementation
with equal channel spacing is not possible, because of the effect
of four-wave mixing (FWM). Finally, the OPA is polarization
sensitive, which can be alleviated at the expense of polarizationmultiplexed pumping.
For the above reasons, one may exclude SOAs and OPAs
for future prospects in wideband dense-WDM amplification.
One may also overlook possible future developments in hybrid
REFAs, due to their configuration and technology complexity,
to focus on RFAs as representing the most advantageous and
promising solution.
As previously mentioned, the RFA gain passband cannot
only be tuned but also extended by pump multiplexing or
combining several Raman pumps at different wavelengths.
The choices of pump wavelengths and relative intensities
depend upon the amplifier configuration (forward/backward/
bidirectionally pumped, lumped/distributed amplification), as
well as of the desired gain passband, level, and ripple. In
particular, the use of either cw or frequency-swept Raman pump
continuums makes theoretically possible to achieve ripple-free
passbands of up to 8 THz [28], [29]. It is beyond the scope
of this paper to review the different configurations proposed
to date. The author shall only assume that the potential of
RFAs for ultrabroadband (multiterahertz) amplification will get
increasing attention, and that steady incremental progress will
make possible to considerably expand the gain passband, along
with the achievement of practical and cost-effective implementation schemes.
Before considering the RFA bands of interest, it is worth
mentioning a fundamental source of impairment associated
with ultrabroadband amplification. It is known as self-induced
stimulated Raman scattering (SI-SRS) [30]. The effect of

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TABLE IV
TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS TOWARDS ACHIEVING 100-Tb/s SYSTEMS

Fig. 11. Defining two superbands A and B providing seamless broadband

amplification over 200 to 400 nm.

SI-SRS is twofold. First, it causes a distortion in the WDM

comb, due to SRS interactions and power transfers between the
short- and long-wavelength signal channels. Second, it causes
statistical crosstalk between the interacting channels, leading
to SNR penalties. Different counter-measures of SI-SRS,
including WDM-comb tilt, periodic filtering, and bidirectional
transmission, are reviewed in [30]. Another possibility to alleviate SI-SRS (and for that matter, other types of fiber nonlinearities) is the use of LEA fibers. Unfortunately, such an option
would dramatically increase the pumping-power requirements
for distributed amplification. The solution to this dilemma
could be the use of lumped amplification, with the advantage
of optimized RFA designs (waveguide and glass matrix) and
with the disadvantage of higher amplification noise. Another
solution could be a hybrid version utilizing both distributed
and lumped RFAs, which is left here to speculation and future
studies.
Two spectral ranges of interest for ultrabroadband RFA amplification are shown in Fig. 10. A first region of 23.5 THz
(200 nm) covers the C + L + U spectrum with potential extension to the S band. A second region of 54.5 THz (400 nm) expands from the first region to cover the O + E + S + C + L +
U spectrum. The author shall name these two regions superband
A and superband B, respectively, as reproduced in Fig. 11 for
clarity [1]. To date, there has been no demonstration of RFAs
covering any substantial fraction of these two superbands.
The choice of 1.31.7 m (or superband B) as representing
the largest achievable amplification passband is fully arbitrary.
One could conceive of a broader superband C, spanning 1.0 to
1.7 m, which has been previously defined as the reference fiber
bandwidth of Bmax = 125 THz. Whether or not (RFA) technology could provide within 20-year seamless amplification
over such a huge fiber bandwidth is a reasonable speculation.
The author may thus view the hypothetical superbands A, B as
representing two successive progress phases toward achieving
this ultimate goal. It is noticed that reaching the superband A or
B milestones, which cover approximately 25 or 50 THz, would
only represent 20% or 40% of the available fiber bandwidth,
which has been defined earlier to be 125 THz.
The key conclusion of the above analysis is that based upon
IM-DD/APM-DD techniques, neither superbands A (25 THz)
and B (50 THz) phases will it make possible to achieve
100-Tb/s transmission systems (to recall, the proposed 2025

roadmap). Alternatively, such systems should require two or

four fiber pairs with 50 or 25 THz bandwidth each, respectively. This approach, which is referred to as space-division
multiplexing (SDM), would represent a radical paradigm shift
from the current WDM systems, where SDM is essentially
used for traffic protection and optional-capacity enhancement.
The situation becomes different if coherent techniques were
utilized. With M-ary modulation formats characterized by ISDs
of 2 to 4 b/s/Hz, the superbands A or B would be adequate to
achieve 100 Tb/s systems. Table IV summarizes the different
technology options to be considered.
In view of the above options, it is clear that the introduction
of multilevel-coherent techniques could not only represent a
major paradigm shift in the evolution of future ultrabroadband
systems but also a key enabler in the 100-Tb/s system roadmap.
The overall analysis partially answers the initial question of
defining the maximum achievable capacity (C) of lightwave
systems and the main technology milestones to achieve it. The
issue of defining ultimate limits for the C D indicator, still
remains, which is addressed in the next section.
VI. U LTIMATE L IMITS IN THE
E XPLOITATION OF B ANDWIDTH
Another tool in the analysis of ultimate transmission limits in
communications systems is provided by Shannons Information
Theory.6 It is beyond the scope of this paper to delve into the
background of this theory. Suffices it to recall here one of the
major results, which is known as ShannonHartley theorem
(SHT), which combines two Shannon theorems (namely the
channel-capacity and the channel-coding theorems) [17],
[18], [31]. The SHT can be simply formulated as follows:
Given a communication channel with coding rate B (Hz), with
average signal-power constraint S and additive Gaussian noise
power N , the maximum achievable bits-per-second capacity
(referred to as channel capacity) is given by the following:



S
.
(3)
CBit/s = BHz log2 1 +
N
After some algebra, taking into account the matched noise
bandwidth, (3) translates into a maximum ISD of



S
(4)
CBit/s/Hz = log2 1 + CBit/s/Hz
N
6 See for instance dedicated web pages, with BSTJ paper download: http://
www.research.att.com/~njas/doc/shannonbio.html,
http://cm.bell-labs.com/
cm/ms/what/shannonday/paper.html, http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/books/ShannonTheoryComm.pdf.

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4707

with S/N being the bit-SNR or, equivalently, by reversing (4)

SNR =

S
2CBit/s/Hz 1
=
.
N
CBit/s/Hz

(5)

An important corollary to the above definition is the following statement: There exists appropriate coding schemes
for which information can be transmitted at rates below the
channel capacity with arbitrary small error rates. By coding
schemes, the theorem implies any modulation format with
an errorcorrection algorithm without, however, providing any
clue as to which algorithm may be suitable to approach correction optimality for this format. A second remark is that the
format-achieving channel capacity is also unspecified. Specifying a given format represents an inherent ISD constraint (see
further below).
From (5), it is found that the SNR for which Cb/s/Hz
vanishes (i.e., using 2C = eC log10 2 C log10 2), which yields
SNRmin = log10 2 0.693 1.6 dB. The key conclusion is
that for SNRs lower than or equal to the limit SNRmin , there
exists no coding scheme achieving arbitrarily efficient error
correction.
Fig. 12 shows the plot of CSH = Cb/s/Hz = f 1 (SNRdB )
according to the universal definition in (5), which is known
as the bandwidth-efficiency diagram [17], [18], with CSH corresponding to the ISD Shannon limit. For SNR > SNRmin ,
there exists formats and coding schemes with ISD < CSH ,
for which the corrected BER is arbitrarily small. The figure
also shows plots of iso-BER with predefined or constrained
ISD, corresponding to various coherent M-ary formats such as
QAM, PSK, and FSK [17], [18], [32]. The case of IM-DD is
represented by crosses () on the horizontal, ISD = 1 Bit/s/Hz
axis, for each selected BERs. It is seen from that at constant
BER, the channel capacity CSH is asymptotically approached as
M increases, the most rapid convergence being achieved with
M-ary QAM. Note that with M-ary FSK, the ISD decreases
with increasing M , unlike other formats. It is also observe that
the iso-BER curves move away from the Shannon limit CSH
as the SNR is increased, as expected. With appropriate coding
schemes (or FEC algorithms) and given the SNR, it is then
possible to shift the uncorrected iso-BER data to the right (e.g.,
from BER = 103 to BER = 1011 ), as illustrated by the arrow
in the figure. The corresponding SNR improvement is referred
to as the coding gain.
In view of information theory, there are no lower limits to
the corrected BER for any transmission distance D, as long as
the received SNR remains above the critical Shannon limit of
SNRmin = 1.6 dB. One can therefore conclude that error-free
transmission distances D (kilometer) for any system capacity
C (bits per second) and, hence, the C D performance, are
altogether virtually unlimited, provided that
1) the system bandwidth B is provisioned and satisfies
the condition C/B < CBit/s/Hz , where the upper bound
refers to the channel capacity;
2) the SNR obtained at distance D is greater than SNRmin =
1.6 dB; and
3) adequate errorcorrection coding is implemented to bring
the BER to the desired target.

Fig. 12. Bandwidth-efficiency diagram CSH = Cb/s/Hz = f 1 (SNRdB )

with Cb/s/Hz in decimal logarithm (full vertical scale is 10 to +10 bit/s/Hz).
The data under the CSH curve show iso-BER loci (103 , 105 , 1011 )
corresponding to different M-ary modulation formats (QAM, PSK, and FSK).
The crosses on the ISD = 0 (1 b/s/Hz) axis correspond to IM-DD format.

The third condition assumes that the system bandwidth is

sufficiently oversized so that the FEC-coding overhead can be
overlooked. The situation is different with physical systems,
where the usable bandwidth is finite or cannot be arbitrarily
expanded to meet the bandwidth overhead requirements. In
the current state-of-the-art FEC, coding may require as much
as 25% overhead (i.e., meaning 12.5 Gb/s rates for 10 Gb/s
payloads). At finite bandwidth, the challenge is thus to trade
payload capacity with coding gain (BER) or to design everoptimal codes having minimal coding overhead and maximal
coding gain.
While the C D performance is virtually unlimited [according to the above conditions 1), 2), and 3)], the ISD Shannon
limit CSH decreases as the system-transmission distance D is
increased. This is because in amplified-systems, the SNR degrades as the amplifier noise N accumulates. The accumulated
noise is a function of T , the amplifier-span transmission, and
k = D/Z, the number of amplifiers. One must also distinguish
the two configurations of lumped amplification (such as with
EDFA) and distributed amplification (such as with RFA). The
result of the analysis, which assumes equal path-averaged signal power in the two configurations, yields [33]



nin
T log T
distributed
= log2 1
(6)
CBit/s/Hz
1 T 1 2k(1 T )
for the ideal (fully inverted) lumped-amplification case, and



nin
lumped
= log2 1 +
(7)
CBit/s/Hz
1 + 2k log T
for the distributed case. In (6) and (7), nin is the photonnumber input to each amplifier. It is easily checked that at the

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Fig. 13. Maximum ISD capacity (Shannon limit) as a function of transmission

distance of number of amplifier spans (k) for lumped and distributed amplification with Z = 50km or 100-km spans (signal input nin  = 8 105
photons or 1 pW/Hz).

system input (k = 0, T 1 =), (6) and (7) both reduce to

CBit/s/Hz = log2 (1 + nin ), which is equivalent to (3) with
S/N = nin as applicable to input signals with Poisson statistics. One can thus plot from (6) and (7) the ISD Shannon
limit as a function of k, for different values of the parameter T ,
as illustrated in Fig. 13 for nin = 8 105 photons (1 pW/Hz
or 1 mW/GHz) at 1.55 m wavelength. The figure shows that
as expected, the ISD capacity decays with system distance,
approximately 50% of which being lost in the first half of the
system length. The decay rate is the same for both configurations, but expectedly, distributed amplification offers the highest capacities regardless of the amplifier-span length Z. With
this choice of signal power, capacities of 4.55.5 b/s/Hz are
theoretically possible in transoceanic systems with 10 000-km
lengths and Z = 50100 km amplifier spans. The same conclusion is applicable to the case of 1.2-m wavelength signals
(50-km spans with 0.4-dB/km attenuation) with 20% power
decrease due to the shift in wavelength. The author notes that
for sufficiently high SNRs, the capacity in (6) and (7) is of the
form Cb/s/Hz log2 [f (k, T )] + log2 (nin ). This shows that
the doubling or halving of the input-signal power nin results
in an increase or decrease of 1 b/s/Hz, respectively. Similar
capacity estimations with fine-grained analysis of the different
types of format envelopes/detection [the corrections to (3)] can
be found in [34].
The above capacity limits assumed that the SNR degradation
is exclusively due to additive amplifier noise, corresponding
to purely linear systems. The effect of fiber nonlinearity in
determining new limitations in the Shannon capacity has been
investigated by a recent (2001) pioneering paper [35][37]. The
starting point of this new analysis is to take into account the
(FWM) nonlinearity by modifying the SNR in (3) according to


CBit/s/Hz = log2

S(1 2 )
1+
N + 2S


(8)

where 2 is a nonlinear-scattering coefficient. Such a coefficient, which is both responsible for signal loss (numerator)
and additional signal-dependent noise (denominator), can be
analytically related to the system parameters [34][38]. Fig. 14
shows plots of the ISD capacity obtained from (8) as a function

Fig. 14. ISD capacity versus total WDM power in (a) purely linear, (b) purely
nonlinear, and (c) combined cases for a 5 100-km amplified system, with
local dispersion increasing from left to right by powers of two from the initial
value D = 1 ps/nm/km (after [38]).

of total WDM signal power for a 5 100 km amplified

system in the purely linear case ( = 0), purely nonlinear case
(N = 0), and their combination (see [38] for other parameters).
The figure shows that in the linear regime, the ISD capacity
increases as the logarithm of WDM power, as expected from the
ShannonHartley formula. It is shown that WDM nonlinearity
introduces an upper bound to the ISD capacity, which increases
with local (or uncompensated) fiber dispersion. To each system
type thus corresponds a maximum-allowable WDM power,
which yields maximum system capacity.
A fine-grained analysis of capacity limitations introduced
by nonlinearities (FWM and self-phase modulation or SPM)
and an inventory of different coherent-format possibilities approaching the fundamental capacity limits can be found in [34].
Small corrections to the nonlinear Shannon-capacity limits can
be made through a quantum-noise model for both amplifier and
fiber-nonlinearity sources [38][40].
The Shannon-capacity limitations introduced by nonlinearities can be alleviated by increasing the fiber effective area
and local dispersion, in addition to other possible countermeasures. A second possibility is to reduce the signal power, but
at the expense of bits-per-second-per-hertz efficiency. Given the
use of coherent M-ary amplitude/phase modulation, maximum
transmission linearity remains the ultimate objective.
VII. C ONCLUSION
A long-term assessment of capacity needs and technology
challenges in future lightwave systems was made. The central
and driving assumption of the prospective is that of an exponential growth in traffic demand, due to the global deployment of
broadband-Internet services. Current estimates for a low- and
high-growth scenarios are 22% and 45% per year, respectively.
Taking the Atlantic route as a case indicator, it was shown
that a high-growth scenario for IP traffic (45% per year) with
only 13% per year increase in lit capacity would leads to
a catastrophic World Wide Wait situation near year 2015.
The conclusion is that no matter how much bandwidth-reserve
global systems may provide today, the risk of rapid saturation
and severe demand shock is real should the IP traffic keeps
growing above a 22% per-year rate.

DESURVIRE: CAPACITY DEMAND AND TECHNOLOGY CHALLENGES FOR LIGHTWAVE SYSTEMS

The effect of the Internet bubble near year 2000 has been
well reflected by the evolution of U.S. and worldwide-fiber
deployment. Current data indicate a return to a healthy growth,
with a production rate of 63 million fiber-kilometers per year
(of which the U.S. represents more than a third). Currently, the
world fiber plant is estimated to represent 746 million kilometers (of which the U.S. represents 30%). Conservative projections show that 20 years from now, the worlds fiber plant would
have increased by fourfold (nearly 3.0 billion fiber-kilometers)
and that of the U.S. by fivefold (1.1 billion fiber-kilometers).
We have then estimated the contribution of FTTP/PON, up to
a year-2010 horizon, to the above fiber-deployment trends, as
well as the corresponding share of global IP-traffic demand.
In 2010, the number of FTTP/PON subscribers worldwide
should reach 20 million (5 million). Averaging the different
types of FTTP/PON services, the corresponding global traffic
is estimated to be 2/20 Pb/s for the uplink/downlink channels.
These figures turn out relatively close to the global IP-traffic
projections (3/6 Pb/s for the low/high-growth scenarios). This
fact may reflect that the latter projections could be either
largely underestimated or pessimistic (even in the high-growth
scenario), or equivalently that FTTP/PON could have a major
impact in the global IP traffic, which are left here to speculation.
The 30-year-old history of lightwave systems can be decomposed in five successive generations. The fifth generation,
inaugurated by the advent of the EDFA, actually represents a
seamless 15-year-long period of sustained incremental progress
with the introduction of several enabling technologies. The
observed trend of a doubling of the C D performance every
12.6 mo since the inception of lightwave systems sets the
grounds of the Optical Moores Law. Yet, when projected
over the next 20 years, the OML performance becomes absurd: A single optical fiber would carry 7 250 000 Tb/s over
transoceanic distances!
The above observation called for a close evaluation of the
capacity limits of lightwave systems and a rescaling of the
OML. Considering the fiber-transmission potential as a single
1.01.7-m window, he obtains an available fiber bandwidth
of 125 THz. With IM-DD systems whose spectral efficiency is
bound to 1 b/s/Hz, such a bandwidth potentially represents a
conservative 100-Tb/s capacity. The OML can then be rescaled
to conservatively predict 100 Tb/s over transoceanic distances
by 2025.
In order to achieve the above performance, one first needs
to develop laser sources and receivers covering the 1.01.7-m
window. The number of sources involved (e.g., over 3000 at
40 Gb/s!) suggests technologies of massively integrated photonic circuits. A second need is to develop ultrabroadband
(or multiterahertz) optical amplifiers. A proposed amplifier
roadmap consists of developing first a 200-nm or 23.5-THz
band over the S + C + L + U region, known as superband A,
and then to extend it to 400 nm (54.5 THz) over the E + O
spectrum, called superband B. The enabler for realizing such
superbands appears today as being Raman amplification, with a
hybrid combination of lumped and distributed configurations,
which is left here to speculation. Assuming that superbands
A, B will be progressively available, different options exists
to meet the 100-Tb/s objective: Using IM-DD, the option

4709

is to carry the payload traffic in four- then two-fiber pairs;

using coherent modulation/detection, a single-fiber pair could
carry the same traffic but with spectral efficiencies of 16 then
4 bit/s/Hz, using adequate M-ary formats. The development
of superbands A, B and the migration toward M-ary coherent
systems thus represent the first necessary steps and technology
challenges toward exhausting the fiber/lightwave capacity.
Amplification and propagation over distance creates noise
and SNR degradation, which is a second-key issue to consider.
Shannons information theory defines the channel capacity
associated to the SNR and, more specifically, the corresponding
bits-per-second-per-hertz efficiency. The theory only tells that
there exists coding schemes for which error correction can be
achieved to arbitrary precision, provided the channel is used
below its Shannon capacity. The author has shown that ideal
amplified transoceanic links with 50/100-km amplifier spacings
have Shannon capacities near 5 b/s/Hz at 1.55-m wavelength
and picowatt-per-hertz path-average signal-power densities.
The same figures apply at shorter wavelengths (within superband B) using reduced signal powers. Assuming that the error
correction overhead be only a fraction of the signal payload,
Shannons theory thus confirms that error-free transoceanic
distances can be achieved with efficient M-ary formats, but realistic WDM systems exhibit nonlinearities, which introduces yet
another constraint in Shannons capacity, as he has discussed.
In addition to known countermeasures to nonlinearity, the
signal power must be reduced at the expense of wasting some
bit per Hertz capacity potential. Given the use of coherent
M-ary formats, transmission linearity remains the ultimate goal
to achieve as well as another technology challenge.
Within the next two decades, global telecom-system
providers will likely have to face an irresistible breathtaking
growth in traffic demand. At global and even regional backbone
scales, lightwave transmission is the only technology capable
of handling the corresponding aggregated bandwidth. As the
author has analyzed in this paper, the technology challenges to
reach even a rescaled Optical Moores Law are manifold and
formidable. Basic research must therefore be revived today in
order to meet tomorrows needs.
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Emmanuel B. Desurvire (M88SM92F00)

received the M.S. degree Diplme dEtudes
Approtondies (DEA) in theoretical physics from the
University of Paris (Pierre et Marie Curie), Paris,
France, in 1981 and the Ph.D. degree, for a work
on RFA, and the Sc.D. degree, for his later work on
erbium-doped fiber amplifiers (EDFAs), from the
University of Nice, Nice, France, in 1983 and 1998,
respectively.
In 19841986, he held a Postdoctoral position at
Stanford University, Stanford, CA, doing research on
fiber gyroscopes and amplified Raman recirculating loops. In 19861990, he
was a Member of Technical Staff at AT&T Bell Laboratories, where he led
the early research on EDFA. In 19901993, he was an Associate Professor in
Columbia University, NY. Since 1994, he has been with the Alcatel, first leading
a research group on soliton transmission and all-optical inline wavelengthdivision multiplexing (WDM) regeneration for transoceanic links. He then took
the position of Global Project Manager for the predevelopment of 40-Gb/s
WDM systems. In 2000, he joined the Corporate CTO staff as the Director
of the Alcatel Technical Academy, a recognition program for R&D experts.
In 20042005, he joined Alcatels Intellectual Property Group as Director
in charge of business development through technology and patents licensing.
Since 2006, he has been appointed Senior Director in the Photonics Networks
product group in charge of new technologies and solutions assessment. He has
been involved in the field of optical communications for 25 years.
Dr. Desurvire, who is a Fellow of the Alcatel Technical Academy, has
authored or coauthored over 200 technical publications and over 30 patents.
He is also the Author and Coauthor of two reference books on EDFAs and
two entry-level Survival Guides in global telecommunications. He is the
recipient of several national and international awards, namely the 19921993
IEEE Distinguished Lecturer Award, the 1994 prize from the International
Commission for Optics, the 1998 Benjamin Franklin Medal in Engineering,
the 1998 Gnral Ferri Grand Prize in Electronics, the 2005 William Streifer
Scientific Achievement Award, and the 2006 Thomson-Scientific Laureate
nomination.