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Renewable Energy 46 (2012) 289e296

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Renewable Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/renene

Technical note

Impact of wind speed variations on wind farm economy in the open market
conditions

Zeljko
urisi
c*, Jovan Mikulovi
c, Iva Babi
c
University of Belgrade, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Bulevar kralja Aleksandra 73, Belgrade, Serbia

a r t i c l e i n f o

a b s t r a c t

Article history:
Received 15 October 2011
Accepted 11 March 2012
Available online 5 April 2012

Stimulating measures for the production of electrical energy from renewable energy sources (RES) are
guaranteed over certain period of operation. Their aim is that the wind power plants (WPP) and other
RES are brought to a concurrent position with the conventional power plants at the open market of
electrical energy. In perspective, power market conditions should be made equal for all electricity
producers. In such conditions, the economy aspects of a WPP are affected not only by the amount of
produced electricity but also by the daily and yearly production proles. The paper denes correlation
indices between the price prole of electricity at the open market and seasonal and daily proles of WPP
production. These indices could serve as a quantitative measure of the inuence of the seasonal and daily
proles of wind speed on the economy of the project of a WPP.
2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords:
Wind farm
Electricity market
Correlation index

1. Introduction
Production costs of electrical energy in WPP in the existing
market conditions are still higher compared to those of the
conventional power plants. On the other hand, production costs of
electrical energy still do not take into account the external costs [1],
which will signicantly affect the costs of conventional power
plants [1,2]. Inclusion of the external costs will create conditions
where RES have become competitive in the open market of electrical energy. In the existing conditions, for the purpose of motivating electrical energy production from RES, the governments of
many countries have undertaken various stimulating measures for
production of electrical energy from RES. The literature contains
[3,4] a survey of different instruments for stimulation of electrical
energy production from WPP and other RES.
Over the last ten years, Feed-In Tariff (FIT) systems have
become an effective instrument of generating electricity from
RES, especially through WPP production. The central principle of
FIT policies is to offer guaranteed prices for xed periods of time
for electricity produced from WPP [5,6]. Through this system,
Transmission System Operator (TSO) and Distribution System
Operator (DSO) are required to buy the energy generated by WPP.
This mechanism, in various forms, is widely accepted by the
majority of European countries [5], including Germany, Spain, and
Denmark [7], the leading countries in Europe as regards wind
* Corresponding author.
 urisi
E-mail address: djurisic@etf.rs (Z.
c).
0960-1481/$ e see front matter 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.renene.2012.03.015

power penetration in electricity production [8]. About 86% of all


wind onshore capacity installed by the end of 2009 in Europe was
initiated by FIT systems [9].
Fig. 1 shows the remuneration levels and the period of guaranteed support for onshore WPP for xed option of FIT in several
European countries. The level and duration of FIT for offshore WPP
is equal or higher compared to onshore WPP. Detailed data concerning FIT for all EU countries are available in the literature [5]. In
some countries the level of FIT is not xed. The tariff range in
Greece shows the difference between the tariffs on mainland and
autonomous islands. In Germany a system where the tariff level
varies according to the wind yield is applied. For Ireland and
Slovenia, the tariff levels depend on the plant size. In Slovakia the
FIT rates are set annually depending on the index of national core
ination [9].
In accordance with the FIT system, the price and disposal of the
produced electrical energy in WPPs are guaranteed over a xed
period of time. For majority of European countries that period is
within the range from 10 to 20 years [5], which is considerably
shorter compared to lifetimes of wind turbines, usually designed to
be from 20 to 30 years [10]. Upon expiration of the period of
guaranteed price, a WPP will offer the produced electrical energy to
the open market, where the price of electrical energy is usually
formed on 1 h basis, according to the principle of demand and
supply. The prices of electrical energy on the open market mainly
follow the diagram of consumption and may vary considerably
within one day compared to the corresponding average daily price
[11,12].

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290

Fig. 1. Level and duration of FIT of onshore WPPs commissioned in 2009 in several European countries.

Production of electrical energy from conventional power plants


is mainly planned and can be adjusted to the market demands
whereby the best price can be obtained for a produced kWh.
Production of electrical energy in a WPP can be, by applying well
developed models for short and long term wind forecasting [13],
envisaged to a great extent, but it cannot be planned since it is
governed by the wind. In other words, production prole of a WPP
follows time variations of the wind speed which cannot be planned.
Nevertheless, a wind is not a stochastic phenomenon, but it is
a consequence of the complex thermal and other physical
phenomena in the atmospheric layer close to earth surface. Daynight variations as well as seasonal variations induce periodic
variations of the physical phenomena which have an inuence on
the wind characteristics. These periodic climatic variations statistically create typical daily and seasonal proles of wind speed. For
the purpose of assessing economy of production of a WPP, it is
necessary that during the planning phase, in addition to the making
an estimate of its average annual production, typical time diagram
of the expected WPP production power on the daily and monthly
levels are analyzed.
The basic idea of this work is introducing a correlation index
between typical time diagram of WPP production and typical
diagram of the price of electrical energy at the open market. This
index may be useful during evaluation of economic parameters of
a WPP project which will one part of its lifetime operate under the
open market conditions.
2. Gross income estimate of a WPP
Gross income during the designed lifetime is one of the key
elements for assessing the economy of a WPP project. In order to
assess the gross income, it is necessary to know the expected
Annual Electricity Production (AEP) for an average year during
plants lifetime and the price of electrical energy per produced
MWh. In this analysis it will be assumed that during the expected
lifetime of NLT years, the WPP operates NFIT years with subventions
according to the FIT model and NOM NLT  NFIT years at the open
market, i.e. without subventions. Total gross income during the
designed lifetime of a WPP can be represented by the following
relation:

WLT WFIT WOM ;

(1)

where WFIT is the gross income during the period of guaranteed


subventions (NFIT) and WOM is the gross income during the period
without subventions (NOM).
2.1. Gross income estimate of a WPP during FIT period
During application of the FIT system, the gross income can
simply be estimated according to relation:

WFIT NFIT $PFIT $AEP;

(2)

where PFIT (Euro/MWh) is guaranteed xed price according to the


FIT model over the xed period of NFIT years, AEP (MWh) is average
net estimated annual WPP production. AEP is usually estimated on
the basis of the measurements of wind potential by applying some
of the dedicated software, such as WAsP [14].
2.2. Gross income estimate of a WPP under open market conditions
The price of electrical energy at the open market is usually
formed on 1 h basis, according to the principle of demand and
supply. Hourly price prole at the electricity market mainly
follows the hourly consumption prole. Therefore, for the
purpose of estimating gross income of a WPP for an average year
under open market conditions it is essential to estimate not only
AEP but also to estimate time diagram of WPP production. Estimate of an idealized gross income WOMideal of a WPP over the
period NOM can formally be expressed by the following mathematical relation:

WOMideal NOM $POMavg $AEP$CWPM ;

(3)

where POMavg is the expected average annual price of electrical


energy at the electricity market over NOM years, CWPM (Correlation
Wind Power Market Index) is index of correlation between time
diagram of variation of the price of electrical energy at the electricity market and diagram of electrical energy production of WPP.
The gross income estimate given by relation (3) is idealized
because it assumes that all energy produced by the WPP is sold at
the electricity market at the maximum hourly price. There are two
main reasons which cause that the real gross income is lower than
the estimate given by relation (3). Firstly, under real conditions
there is a day ahead WPP production forecasting error. This error in

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Z.

the production estimate lowers the price due to penalization


factors [15]. Secondly, the auctioned price of the produced MWh is
obtained on the basis of different market indices [16] and, as a rule,
it is lower compared to the maximum realized market price for the
corresponding hour, causing that the realized income is smaller
than the idealized. Taking these real factors into account can be
mathematically made equivalent to the average coefcient of
income reduction m < 1, thus the real gross income is:

WOM m$WOMideal m$NOM $POMavg $AEP$CWPM :

(4)

Value of the reduction coefcient m is dependent on the qualities


of the forecast of production and forecast of hourly prices at the
market.
The aim of this work is dening a model for estimation of
a dimensionless index CWPM which is of key importance for
assessing the economy of a WPP under conditions of the open
market of electrical energy. For a xed prole of prices at the
electricity market, index CWPM is dened by the wind prole
exclusively, thus it is indicator of the wind quality at a particular
location. Dening this coefcient allows investors to obtain a better
insight into the economy of a WPP project. This coefcient may also
be of signicance for the donor of subvention during the period of
subvention of production (e.g. applying FIT model) since projects
having higher CWPM provide a higher degree of return of the means
of subvention. In addition, since the correlation between the price
at the market and diagram of consumption is quite strong, correlation index CWPM indirectly represent the correlation index with
consumption demands. For these reasons, it can be expected that
a WPP having higher CWPM will act positively as regards the losses
in the distribution network, unloading of the element of the
distribution system, as well as organizing production units and
providing power reserve in a power system.
3. Mathematical model for estimation of correlation index
CWPM
Correlation index is a unique indicator for each WPP at certain
electricity market. Its estimate can be carried out on the basis of the
available data on wind speed at the target location for a period of at
least one year and historical data on hourly prices of electrical
energy at the electricity market where the produced electrical
energy of a WPP is to be sold. A quantitative estimate of this index
can be done on the basis of the following relations:

CWPM CWPMd $CWPMs ;

(5)

where: CWPMd is correlation index of the average daily diagram of


WPP production with the average daily diagram of the price of
electrical energy at the electricity market, CWPMs is seasonal
correlation index which determines the correlation between the
average monthly production of a WPP and average monthly prices
of electrical energy at the electricity market. Index CWPMd can be
calculated applying the following relation:

P24
CWPMd

j 1 Ej $POMj

24$Eavg $POMavg

24
1 X

e $p ;
24 j 1 j OMj

(6)

where: Ej is average hourly production power of a WPP for j-th hour


of an average day expressed in MW, Eavg is average annual
production power of a WPP, POMj is price of the produced MWh at
the electricity market for the corresponding j-th hour of the
average day. Values ej Ej/Eavg and pOMj POMj/POMavg are the
corresponding normalized values of Ej and POMj respectively.
Index CWPMs can be calculated according to the following
relation:

291

P12

12
X
m 1 Tm $Em $POMm

tm $em $pOMm ;
8760$Eavg $POMavg
m1

CWPMs

(7)

where: Em is average monthly production power of WPP for


month m, POMm is average monthly price of one MWh at the
electricity market for month m, Tm is number of hours in month m.
Values em Em/Eavg and pOMm POMm/POM avg are the corresponding normalized values of Em and POMm respectively and
tm Tm/8760 is relative number of hours in month m with respect
to one year.
It is important to note that in Eqs. (6) and (7) the normalized
values e and p, on both daily and monthly levels, are not dependent
upon the total production of WPP and price of one MWh at the
market, but only on the prole of the production diagram and
prole of the consumption diagram. Also, it is important to note
that CWPM can be lower, equal, or higher than one. The higher index
CWPM the wind is of a better quality, i.e. it is better correlated with
the market prices of electrical energy.
A WPP production prole and the prole of prices at an electricity market are different on the year by year basis, thus their
correlation is variable. In order to estimate a unique correlation
index over the lifetime of a WPP, it is necessary to dene a representative prole of the WPP production and a representative prole
of prices at the analyzed electricity market.
3.1. Estimate of the time diagram of a wind turbine production
In order to make an estimate of the time diagram of WPP
production it is required to possess measurement data on wind
speed at the target location for the period of at least one year. On
the basis of these data and power curve of the selected turbine it
is possible to make an estimate of the wind turbine production
for each hour of the analyzed year. The power curve of wind
turbine is usually given for a xed air density (standard is
r0 1.225 kg/m3). In order to determine production power of
a wind turbine for a 10 min interval, it is necessary to know the
actual air density and wind speed at the hub height of the
selected wind turbine. In this analysis it has been assumed that
the wind turbine was located at the place of the measurement
mast. If measurements of the wind speed are performed at the
heights which are lower than the hub height of the selected wind
turbine, it is necessary to perform extrapolation of the wind
speed according to some of the models for height prole of the
wind speed [17,18].
For each 10 min interval i it is necessary to calculate the corresponding wind speed Vi at the hub height. Then, calculation of the
corresponding effective wind speed is done according to the
following relation [19]:


Veffi Vi

ri
r0

1
3

(8)

where ri is the actual air density at the hub height of the wind
turbine. The air density can be calculated on the basis of the air
temperature and air pressure measurements by using the following
equation:

ri


pi 
kg=m3 ;
RTi

(9)

where: pi is the air pressure (Pa) over the 10-min time interval i, Ti is
the air temperature over the 10 min time interval i in degrees of
Kelvin, and R is the specic gas constant for air (287J/kgK).
The electrical power of the wind turbine for each 10 min interval
i is estimated according to the following relation:

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292



Ei Epowercurve Veffi ;

(10)

where Epower curve(Vef) is the standard power curve of the wind


turbine for the xed air density r0 1.225 kg/m3).
It should be mentioned that the previous approach to estimation of the production power is acceptable for a pitch-controlled
wind turbine. For a stall-controlled wind turbine the power
output predicted by the given power curve for the measured wind
speed is calculated rst and then the power output is adjusted to
the following equation [19]:

Ei Epower curve Vi

ri
:
r0

(11)

The average annual production power (Eavg) of a WPP is estimated on the basis of the following relation:

Eavg

N
1 X
E:
N i1 i

(12)

where N is the total number of observed 10 min intervals.


The capacity factor (CF) of a WPP at annual level is calculated
according to the following relation:

CF

Eavg
;
En

(13)

where En is rated power of WPP.


Estimates of the production and CF of a WPP according to
relations (10e13) concern an idealized production since the losses
and unavailability of wind turbine are not taken into account. If it is
assumed that these losses could be modeled by a xed coefcient
and that they are linearly distributed in time, then in relations (6)
and (7) they would be compensated, thus for CWPM calculation
they do not have to be taken into account.
Owing to the variation of the production prole on a year by
year basis, it is required to analyze measurement data taken over
a long period of time. For this purpose, in addition to the short-term
measurements, one can use the long term measurements of the
regional reference meteorological station.

3.2. Time diagrams of the prices of electrical energy at electricity


markets
The prices of electrical energy at electricity markets are usually
dened at hourly level on the basis of demand and supply
according to the day-ahead principle. Daily variations of hourly
prices mainly follow variations of the daily consumption, as is
shown in [16] by a comparative analysis of the average hourly
prices at the auctions in Spain (OMEL) and Germany (EEX) and the
corresponding average hourly loads in Spain and Germany. In
addition to the structure of consumption, daily diagram is inuenced by the structure of production. Over the past several years
the ever increasing presence of intermittent renewable energy
sources (such as WPP and PV) has a signicant inuence on the
prole of price of electrical energy at some auctions in the regions
having installed signicant capacities of renewable energy sources.
These effects have been analyzed in [20e23].
Fig. 2 shows average normalized hourly prices of electrical
energy at EEX for an average day for every year over the period
2007e2011. On the basis of the average daily diagrams, the corresponding normalized average day over the period of several years
has been formed.
During peak hours the electrical energy is on average more
expensive by up to 30% compared to the average daily price for an
average day, while during minimum load it is on average cheaper
by up to 40%. It is clear that WPPs located in the regions where
winds predominantly blow during midday hours will accomplish
higher income per MWh than WPPs located in the regions where
winds predominantly blow during early morning hours.
Fig. 3 shows average normalized price of electrical energy at EEX
per month for each year over the period 2007e2011.
The seasonal prole of prices at EEX is characterized by relatively small deviations of average monthly prices from the average
annual value. In addition, a relatively large deviation of average
monthly prices on the year by year basis is noticeable.
4. The example
This example presents the calculation of the correlation index
for the project Bavanistansko Polje e Serbia of rated power 188 MW

Fig. 2. Average normalized hourly electricity price at EEX for each year over the period 2007e2011.

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293

Fig. 3. Average normalized monthly electricity price at EEX over the period 2007e2011.

[24]. The analyses have been carried out assuming that WPP
Bavanistansko Polje has been realized by using wind turbines
Vestas V90, 2 MW, H 105 m. On the basis of two-years-long
measurements (2009e2010) of wind speed at the location of
WPP and the methodology described in Section 3.1, estimates of the
daily prole of the WPP power production have been obtained. The
estimated net AEP of WPP Bavanistansko Polje is 484.2 GWh.
Fig. 4 shows the estimated normalized average hourly productions of WPP Bavanistansko Polje for years 2009 and 2010. It can be
concluded that the average hourly production proles of WPP
Bavanistansko Polje for years 2009 and 2010 are very similar. Thus,
it can be assumed that the daily production prole of WPP Bavanistansko Polje is very stable on the year by year basis.
Fig. 5 shows concurrently the normalized average hourly
diagram of the estimated WPP production and normalized average

hourly prices of electrical energy at EEX for an average day over the
two years period 2009e2010. Fig. 5 shows concurrently the
normalized average monthly productions of WPP Bavanistansko
Polje and normalized average monthly prices of electrical energy at
EEX.
By a comparative analysis of the diagram of Fig. 5 one can
conclude that the correlation between the average daily variation of
the price of electrical energy and average daily variation of the
production of WPP Bavanistansko Polje is relatively weak. On the
basis of relation (6) the calculated average daily correlation index is
CWPMd 0.973. On the basis of relation (7) the calculated average
seasonal correlation index is CWPMs 0.999. Finally, the correlation
index between the production of WPP Bavanistansko Polje and
prices at EEX electricity market is, according to relation (5), CWPPz
CWPMd 0.973. Based on the previous analysis and relation (4), one

Fig. 4. The estimated normalized average hourly productions of WPP Bavanistansko Polje for years 2009 and 2010.

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Fig. 5. The estimated normalized average hourly productions of WPP Bavanistansko Polje and normalized hourly prices of electrical energy at EEX for an average day over
2009e2010.

may conclude that for making an estimate of the gross income of


WPP Bavanistansko Polje, under condition of selling the produced
energy at EEX market, relevant is the average annual price of MWh
reduced by 2.7%.
It is possible to perform the preceding analysis for any market
where the energy produced by a WPP could be sold and then
calculate the corresponding correlation indices. Under free market
conditions, it is possible to sell energy from a WPP at the market
which has the statistical correlation which matches best the
production prole of the WPP.
5. Variation of the correlation index on the year by year basis
Correlation index CWPM is a statistical parameter which is
subject to certain variations on the year by year basis due to variations of the production prole of a WPP and market prole. On the
basis of the data on average hourly prices of electrical energy at EEX

for each year, for the period 2007e2011 (Fig. 2) the corresponding
statistical deviation has been calculated. The results are shown in
Fig. 7.
It can be concluded that the average daily prole of the price of
electrical energy is quite stable on the year by year basis, within the
analyzed period of ve years, the standard deviation of average
hourly values being within the range from 3 to 10%.
Fig. 8 shows standard deviation of the average monthly prices at
EEX on the year by year basis over the period 2007e2011.
Compared to the daily prole, the seasonal prole is not stable
on the year by year basis, the dispersion being more pronounced
over the cooler period of the year. Having in mind statistically small
dispersions of the average monthly prices fro the annual average
and a high discretion on the year by year basis, for EEX market one
can adopt the assumption that the seasonal correlation index is
CWPMs 1. It should be mentioned here that this conclusion
couldnt in advance be made generally applicable to all markets.

Fig. 6. The normalized average monthly productions of WPP Bavanistansko Polje and normalized average monthly prices of electrical energy at EEX.

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Fig. 7. Standard deviation of the average daily prole of prices at EEX on the year by year basis over the period 2007e2011.

From the previous analysis of EEX market, it can be adopted that


CWPM CWPMd. From Figs. 2and 4 one may conclude that daily
proles of the EEX market prices and production of the analyzed
WPP are very stable, thus the correlation index is very stable on the
year by year basis.
6. The limiting values of the correlation index
For each electricity market it is possible to dene theoretical
limiting values of the correlation index CWPM. The limiting values
CWPMmin and CWPMmax are functions of the capacity factor CF of
a WPP, which is dened by relation (13). Theoretically minimal
correlation index would be obtained if all AEP of a WPP was
generated during hours of minimal price at the considered
electricity market. CWPMmax is dened in the analogous way.
Calculation of the limiting values of the correlation index is

carried out on the basis of the histograms of the normalized


prices at the considered auction. Fig. 6 shows range of possible
values of the correlation index CWPM at EEX for different values of
CF of a WPP.
Fig. 9 is unique for auction EEX. Similar diagrams can be made
for any electricity market. For certain WPP these diagrams allow
estimation of the corresponding limiting values of the correlation
index if the capacity factor of the WPP is known. On the basis of the
methodology described in Section 3 it is possible to estimate
correlation index CWPM. By a comparative analysis of the estimated
CWPM and the corresponding CWPMmin and CWPMmax it is possible the
quality of wind in view of the daily and seasonal proles. E.g. for
WPP Bavanistansko Polje, analyzed in Section 4, the estimated
values CF 29.4% and CWPM 0.973 have been obtained. For the
calculated CF, on the basis of Fig. 9 it can be seen that the correlation
index at EEX can be within the range 0.7e1.25.

Fig. 8. Standard deviation of average monthly prices at EEX over the period 2007e2011.

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Fig. 9. Range of values of the correlation index CWPM at EEX for different values of capacity factor (CF) of a WPP.

7. Conclusion
For the purpose of assessing the economy of the project of
a WPP under open market conditions, it is necessary to analyze the
correlation between the production diagram and diagram of the
market prices, in addition to making an estimate of AEP. The paper
denes correlation index between the production prole and prices
prole at an electricity market. This index represents a measure of
quality of the wind as regards the daily and seasonal variations. For
the purpose of estimation this index (CWPM) one should have
measurement data concerning average daily and seasonal proles
of the wind at the WPP location, as well as the average daily and
seasonal prole of prices at the considered auction.
For each electricity market it is possible to dene theoretical
limiting values of the correlation index CWPM for a WPP which are
functions of the capacity factor CF of the WPP only. By a comparative analysis of the estimated CWPM of a WPP and the corresponding
limiting values CWPMmin and CWPMmax the quality of wind as regards
the daily and seasonal proles can be estimated.
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