The Case of the Body in the Bag

The late spring morning broke along the banks of Flaming Gorge reservoir. Robert Hansen, an elderly
retiree fishing along the bank, noticed a large canvas bag floating in the water, held in place by a tree
branch along the shore. The bag appeared to be stuffed, well worn and heavily stained. He noticed hair
floating through the bags opening. He decided to contact local police.
A team of investigators, including you as the statistical expert, found that the bag contained a body.
However, the body was so decomposed that the team could not immediately identify the corpses race,
gender or age. The chief detective contacted the forensics department to determine those
characteristics, as well as cause and time of death.
The results from forensics may not be available for a few days. The chief detective has asked you to
collect the latest statistical data regarding relationships between victims and perpetrators. Since
Flaming Gorge is along the Wyoming-Utah border, the FBI might become involved. This allows you to
use FBI data.
The data that you found is in the accompanying Excel file, a download from FBI databases. You review
this briefly with the chief detective. The two of you decide that you should determine the following
probabilities while waiting for the forensics results:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.

The offender is at least 18.

The offender is white.
The offender is male.
The victim is a white female.
The victim is either white or female.
The victim and the offender are from the same age category.
The victim and the offender are from different age categories.
The victim and the offender are of the same race.
The victim and the offender are of different races.
The victim and the offender are of the same genders.
The victim and the offender are of different genders.

She also wants your best prediction of the age, race and gender of:
12. The victim.
13. The offender
She also says she wants an explanation supporting your prediction.

Assume that it is now 3 or 4 days after you have finished the analysis and provided the chief detective
with your prediction. The forensics department provides the following information about the victim:
The cause of death was blunt-force trauma.
The body had been in the water at least 2 weeks before the fisherman found it.
The victim is a white female with blond hair.
The best estimate of her age is mid-thirties.
The victim showed no signs of having children, and was not wearing jewelry when found.
Page 1

The Case of the Body in the Bag

Your focus now is a profile of the offender. You tell the chief detective that, using this information from
the forensic investigation in combination with the FBI data, you will determine the likelihood that the
offender is:
14. At least 18
15. White
16. Male
And that the victim AND the offender are of:
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.

The same age category

Different age categories
Same race
Different races
Same gender
Different genders

The chief detective agrees that will be valuable, but wants you to go one step further: She wants to have
your:
23. Best prediction of the age, race, and gender of the offender. As before, she wants an
explanation that supports your conclusion.
24. She says she also wants to know, if your probabilities about the offender characteristics changed
after you had the forensics results, why they changed.

Page 2