Mobile Handset and Portable Computer

Shipment and Penetration Forecasts for the

US, 2010-2015
Covering Smartphones, Wi-Fi enabled handsets, Touchscreen handsets, Feature phones,
Tablets, Notebooks, and Netbooks

Coda. Coda Research Consultancy

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 Coda. Coda Research Consultancy

Mobile Handset and Portable Computer

Shipment and Penetration Forecasts for the
US, 2009-2015

Steve Smith PhD

Research Director

Coda Research Consultancy

Released 27 April 2010

For more information about this product, please email steve.smith@codarc.co.uk, or call
+44 (0)7779 610004

European office:
Coda Research Consultancy Ltd
95 Wodeland Avenue
Guildford
Surrey
GU2 4LD
England

© Coda Research Consultancy Ltd, 2010

All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, or stored in any retrieval system of any
nature, without prior written permission of Coda Research Consultancy Ltd, except where this is expressly permitted under the Copyright Designs
and Patents Act 1988 or the Copyright and Rights in Databases Regulations 1999.

This report draws upon research and analysis conducted by Coda Research Consultancy. Use of this report by any third party for whatever
purpose should not, and does not, absolve such third party from using due diligence in verifying the report’s contents. Any use which a third party
makes of this document, or any reliance on it, or decisions to be made based on it, are the responsibility of such third party. Coda Research
Consultancy, its affiliates and representatives accept no duty of care or liability of any kind whatsoever to any such third party, and no
responsibility for damages, if any, suffered by any third party as a result of decisions made, or not made, or actions taken, or not taken, based on
this document. Coda Research Consultancy does not make investment recommendations, in this report or otherwise, and nothing in this report
should be interpreted as an opinion by Coda Research Consultancy either on market forecasts or on the prospects of specific companies.

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Introduction

Document at a glance:
Type – Market forecast report, 2010 to 2015 for each year
Geography covered – US
Printed page length – 27
Number of forecasts – 20

This report presents our forecasts for subscribers and shipments of mobile internet devices in the US,
covering 2010 to 2015, separated by:
 Smartphones
 Wi-Fi enabled handsets
 Touchscreen handsets
 Feature phones
 Tablets
 Notebooks
 Netbooks

We forecast that greatest growth will be across Wi-Fi enabled handsets, Smartphones and Tablet
computers. Whilst Wi-Fi enabled handset shipments will rise at +21% CAGR during the forecast period
to reach 140m in 2015, Smartphone shipments will rise at +19% CAGR, to reach 138m. Tablet
computer shipments will rise by +19%, to reach 14.8m the same year. This will represent one quarter
of all tablet shipments worldwide in 2015.

Growth in tablet shipments will be focused upon slate style devices. The weight, size, form factors,
operability and software of slate computers represent the emergence of a new market, and we
anticipate a divergence in some behaviors from those we see around notebooks. The physical design
of slates will also mean that usage will tend to be around content consumption rather than creation,
and we also foresee that the majority of usage will take place in-home and be shared across
household members in some household types.

In terms of business uses, we anticipate opportunities for healthcare, education, corporate campus
workers, field sales and services, real estate, the insurance industry, and remote and mobile workers.

Drivers to smartphone shipments include demand for mobile internet access, declining device costs,
location based services, social networking, mobile payments, and mobile working. Drivers to Wi-Fi
enabled handsets include cheaper, faster and more reliable Wi-Fi connections in-home and via Wi-Fi
hotspots than offered by 3G and 4G. Carriers will be keen to encourage Wi-Fi usage in order to offload
3G traffic, especially during peak periods.

Our forecasts are crucial for helping organizations to understand future mobile internet access, device
usage, content consumption/creation, and opportunities around advertising and monetization. They
are essential reading for mobile carriers; vendors; consultants; financial analysts; application, content
and service providers, and anyone else with an interest in the future of mobile devices, content, and
the mobile internet.

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Contents, and tables of figures and forecasts
Contents
Methodology...........................................................5
Overview................................................................. 5
Taxonomy ............................................................... 5
The eco-system of devices .....................................7
Overview of how each device will be used, and why .. 8
Mobile handset shipments......................................9
Smartphones– Drivers to take-up ............................. 9
Smartphone shipments ...........................................11
Smartphone shipment forecast to 2015....................13
Feature phone shipment forecast to 2015 ................13
Touchscreen handset shipments to 2015..................14
Wi-Fi enabled handsets – Drivers to take-up.............15
Wi-Fi enabled handset shipments to 2015 ................16
Notebook, netbook and tablet shipments ............18
Portable computer shipments vs desktop shipments to
2015 ................................................................18
Notebook shipment forecast to 2015........................18
Netbook shipment forecast to 2015 .........................19
Tablet computers – Drivers to take up .....................19
Tablet shipment forecast to 2015 ............................20
Mobile handset subscriber forecasts ....................21
Mobile handset subscriber forecast to 2015 ..............21
Feature phone subscriber forecast to 2015...............21
3G+ mobile handset subscriber forecast to 2015 ......22
Smartphone subscriber forecast to 2015 ..................23
Touchscreen handset subscriber forecast to 2015.....24
Wi-Fi enabled handset subscriber forecast to 2015 ...24
Notebook, netbook and tablet user forecasts ......25
Notebook users ......................................................25
Netbook users ........................................................25
Tablet users ...........................................................26
About Coda Research Consultancy .......................27
Forecast Figures
Forecast 1. Smartphone shipments, 2009-2015 ............ 13
Forecast 2. Smartphone share of all mobile handset
shipments, 2009-2015........................................ 13
Forecast 3. Feature phone shipments, 2009-2015......... 14
Forecast 4. Touchscreen mobile handset shipments,
2009-2015 ......................................................... 15
Forecast 5. Touchscreen mobile handset shipments as
proportions of all handset shipments, 2009-2015 . 15
Forecast 6. Wi-Fi enabled mobile handset shipments,
2009-2015 ......................................................... 17
Forecast 7. Portable computer shipments vs desktop
shipments, 2009-2015........................................ 18
Forecast 8. Notebook shipments, 2009-2015............... 19
Forecast 9. Netbook shipments, 2009-2015.................. 19
Forecast 10. Tablet shipments, 2009-2015 ................... 20
Forecast 11. Mobile handset subscribers, 2009-2015 .... 21
Forecast 12. Feature phone subscribers, 2009-2015 ..... 22
Forecast 13. 3G+ mobile handset subscribers, 2009-
2015 ................................................................. 22
Forecast 14. Smartphone subscribers, 2009-2015......... 23
Forecast 15. Smartphone subscribers as share of all
mobile handset subscribers, 2009-2015 ............... 23
Forecast 16. Touchscreen mobile handset subscribers,
2009-2015 ......................................................... 24
Forecast 17. Wi-Fi enabled mobile handset
subscribers, 2009-2015 ...................................... 24
Forecast 18. Notebook users, 2009-2015 ..................... 25
Forecast 19. Netbook users, 2009-2015 ....................... 26
Forecast 20. Tablet users, 2009-2015 .......................... 26
Other Figures
Figure 1. Smartphone shipments by operating system,
2009 ................................................................. 11
Figure 2. Top selling smartphones 4Q09 ...................... 12
Figure 3. Top post paid countries ................................ 12
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About Coda Research Consultancy

Coda Research Consultancy specializes in providing critical insight into market developments and
behavior around new media, technologies and services in order to help IT and media professionals,
business executives, and investors make fact-based decisions around strategy, service provision and
product development.

Coda employs a variety of rigorous quantitative and qualitative research procedures. It draws upon a
range of disciplines, and collaborates with top commercial and academic organizations.

Coda Research Consultancy is led by Dr Steve Smith, an internationally acknowledged research

specialist with extensive experience consulting for media and technology companies globally.

To find out more, visit www.codarc.co.uk, or contact us below:

European office
95 Wodeland Avenue
Guildford
Surrey
GU2 4LD
England
Tel: +44(0)7779 610004
Email: steve.smith@codarc.co.uk

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