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NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE

Weekly FX Insight

Please note and carefully read the

Important Disclosure on the last part

Weekly FX Insight

Aug 8, 2016
with data as of Aug 5, 2016
Market Review & Focus

FX Analysis

FX & Eco. Figures Forecast

P. 1 - 4

P. 5 - 8

P. 9 - 13

2013 Citibank
Citibank and Arc Design is a registered service mark of Citibank, N.A. or Citigroup Inc.
Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited

Weekly FX Recap
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last part

Major Currencies Weekly Performance

LAST WEEK PERFORMANCE
CCY

Close
Price

Day High

Day Low

Weekly changes versus US dollar

Year-To52 week 52 week 1 year %

Date
high
low
change
Change

USD

96.19

96.52

95.00

100.51

91.92

-1.8%

-2.5%

EUR/USD

1.1086

1.1234

1.1046

1.1714

1.0524

1.7%

2.1%

USD/JPY

101.82

102.83

100.68

125.28

99.02

-18.5%

-15.3%

GBP/USD

1.3073

1.3372

1.3022

1.5819

1.2798

-16.2%

-11.3%

USD/CAD

1.3172

1.3200

1.2997

1.4690

1.2461

-0.1%

-4.8%

AUD/USD

0.7619

0.7664

0.7491

0.7835

0.6827

3.6%

4.6%

NZD/USD

0.7144

0.7257

0.7122

0.7325

0.6130

9.7%

4.6%

USD/CHF

0.9807

0.9831

0.9634

1.0328

0.9259

0.2%

-2.1%

USD/CNY

6.6603

6.6626

6.6247

6.7047

6.2091

7.1%

2.5%

USD/CNH

6.6660

6.6720

6.6239

6.7618

6.2115

7.2%

1.5%

GOLD

1335.55

1367.68

1334.75

1375.45

1046.43

23.1%

25.8%

Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Aug 5, 2016

USD INDEX
EUR
JPY
GBP
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
CNY
CNH
GOLD
-2.00%

0.70%
-0.79%
0.24%
-1.19%
-0.98%
0.30%
-0.76%
-1.16%
-0.23%
-0.60%
-1.14%
-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Aug 5, 2016

USD

USD rose on strong data as US non-farm payrolls grew 255K, much higher than expectation of 180K. The dollar index rose
0.7% to close at 96.19 last week. USD outlook: The dollar index may range trade between 93.02-98.57 as external
uncertainty may lower the possibility of US earlier rate hike.

GBP

GBP plunged on a larger-than-expected scale of policy easing as the BOE announced to cut the interest rate by 25bps to
0.25% and expand asset purchase program to 70bn pounds. GBP/USD dropped 1.2% to close at 1.3073. GBP outlook:
GBP/USD may test lower to 1.2798 as the BOE may cut rates again in November.

JPY

JPY rose amid unsurprising stimulus package as the Japanese government announced the details of 28.1trn yen stimulus
package including 13.5trn yen fiscal expenditure. USD/JPY dropped 0.2% to close at 101.82 last week. JPY outlook:
USD/JPY may test lower to 99.02-100 as no short-term catalyst can change JPY strength.

AUD

AUD rose as the RBA cut the interest rate by 25bps to 1.5% but it did not imply to cut rates further. AUD/USD rose 0.3% to
close at 0.7619. AUD outlook: AUD may rise to 0.7835 amid fund inflows driven by AUD yield advantage, AAA credit rating
and stable political environment.

CAD

CAD dropped as Canadas employment dropped 31K unexpectedly in July with full employment down 71K. CAD outlook:
USD/CAD may range trade between 1.2987-1.3312 in the short term as the BOC may cut rates this year-end, which may
restrain CAD

US Economic Analysis:

Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last part

We continue to expect a Dec hike rate despite strong job data

We expect the Fed to wait for more data in order to confirm
US economic outlook, despite strong July job data. Together
with external economic uncertainty and US presidential K
election in November, we continue to expect the Fed not to 350
hike rates until December. USD may range trade in the short 300
term.
250

US job data highlights

Chart: US Non-farm Payrolls (K)

2015 Average: 229K
265

251

221

200

Strong job growth: Non-farm payrolls grew 255K in July

(Chart 1), much higher than expectation of 180K. YTD, 150
average job growth reached 186K, higher than our expectation 100
of 125K-175K.

295

277

273

Accelerating earnings growth: Average hourly earnings

monthly growth accelerated from 0.1% to 0.3%, higher than
expectation of 0.2% while yearly growth remained at 2.6%.

The Fed may not hike rates until December

Need to observe more data: Despite strong job data, the Fed
may need to observe more data in order to ensure
improvement in the economy and inflation continues.
It is unlikely to hike rates in September: External economic
weakness and uncertainty such as US presidential election in
November may increase difficulty in a rate hike in September.
A possible rate hike in December: Thus, we continue to
expect the Fed not to hike rates until December.

292

280 271

255

233

228
150 149

168

186
144

84

50

Unemployment rate stayed flat: Unemployment rate

remained at 4.9%. In our view, 4.5%-5% unemployment rate
may reflect full employment.

2016 Average: 186K

24

Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Aug 5, 2016

The dollar index may range trade between 92.60-97.51

Expectation of rate hikes is similar to that in end-July:
According to the interest rate futures market, the probability
of a rate hike in September rose from 18% to 26% while the
probability of a rate hike in December rose from 37% to 47%.
Both are similar to the levels seen in end-July.
USD may continue to range trade: Markets will focus on
Jackson Hole Conference on August 28, as Fed's Yellen will
give a speech. USD may continue to range trade.
Technical analysis: Since the RSI rebounded, the dollar
index may range trade between 93.02-98.57 in the short
term.
2

Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last part

Weekly FX Strategies
1.

Neutral - NZD
NZD may range trade ahead of RBNZ meeting as markets are waiting for its rate
decision
NZD/USD may range trade between 0.6952-0.7325 (5.39-5.68)

2.

Neutral with upside bias - AUD

AUD may be supported as the RBA is unlikely to cut rates again this year
AUD/USD may range trade between 0.7490-0.7835 (5.81-6.08), with upside bias

3.

Bearish - GBP
GBP may be undermined as the BOE may cut the interest rate by 15bps in November
GBP/USD may test lower to 1.2798 (9.92) gradually

Weekly FX Focus:

Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last part

NZD outlook may depend on whether the RBNZ will imply to cut rates again
The RBA and the BOE announced to cut rates last week.
The RBA is unlikely cut rates again this year while the BOE
may cut rates in November. The RBNZ will announce its rate
decision this Thursday. The RBNZ may cut the interest rate
by 25bps. NZD may depend on whether the RBNZ will hint
further rate cuts.

Chart: Citi FX Interest Rate Forecast

Dollar Index

8/5/16
0.50

3Q 16
0.50

4Q 16
0.75

1Q 17
0.75

EUR/USD

0.00

-0.10

-0.20

-0.25

GBP/USD

0.25

0.25

0.10

0.10

The RBA is unlikely to cut rates again this year:

USD/JPY

-0.10

-0.10

-0.10

-0.30

Although the RBA announced to cut the interest rate by 25bps

to 1.5% last Tuesday with a similar policy statement in July.
AUD once surged from 0.7491 to 0.7638 during the day.

USD/CHF

-0.75

-0.75

-0.75

-0.75

AUD/USD

1.50

1.50

1.50

1.50

NZD/USD

2.25

2.00

2.00

2.00

USD/CAD

0.50

0.50

0.25

0.25

Since the RBA cut the interest rate by 50bps in three months,
we expect the RBA may keep the interest rate unchanged this
year unless inflation plunges in Q3.
However, AUD may appreciate as several central banks may
further ease policy. Since AUD appreciation may increase
inflation downside pressure, we cannot rule out a rate cut in
early 2017.
The BOE may cut rates in November:
Last Thursday, the BOE announced to cut the interest rate by
25bps, expand asset purchase to 70bn pounds and provide
100bn pound low-rate funding facility for banks.
GBP plunged 1.6% in a single day as the scale was larger
than expected.
Most members agreed to cut rates further if economic growth
is close to zero in 2H.
Thus, we expect the BOE may cut the interest rate by 15bps
to 0.1% in November.
However, we cannot rule out the probability that the BOE may
pause expansion of policy easing if inflation surges due to a
plunge in GBP.

Source: Citi., forecasts as of Aug 5, 2016

The RBNZ may cut the interest rate by 25bps this

Thursday:
The RBNZ made an economic statement and said to further
ease policy. The new macroprudential tools on the property
market may pave the way for rate cuts. Thus, we expect the
RBNZ to cut the interest rate by 25bps.
NZD outlook may depend on the RBNZ policy statement.
Since market has priced in expectation of rate cuts, NZD
may rebound to 0.7325 (July top), if the RBNZ only cuts
rates without implying further rate cuts.
By contrast, if the RBNZ lowers rates and hint further cuts in
the policy statement, NZD may retreat to 0.6952 (July low).

NZD/USD
Please note and carefully read the
USD/NZD may range trade between 0.6952-0.7325
Important Disclosure on the last part
(5.39-5.68)
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.7551 exchange rate for reference
Last Price
0.7144
(5.54)

Last wk
High

Last wk
Low

2nd
Support

1st
Support

1st
Resistance

2nd
Resistance

0-3m
Forecast

6-12m
Forecast

0.7257
(5.63)

0.7122
(5.52)

0.6676
(5.18)

0.6952
(5.39)

0.7325
(5.68)

0.7564
(5.87)

0.69
(5.35)

0.70
(5.43)

Market Recap:

Upcoming Economic Data

Aug 11: RBNZ Rate Decision

0.7564 (May 14, 2015 top)

NZD dropped amid concern that the RBNZ

may further cut rates, as NZ average hourly
earnings grew 0.8% qoq, lower than
expectation of 0.9%.

0.7325 (Jul top)

NZD Outlook:

Since the RBNZ made a special statement on

the economy and said to further ease policy,
we expect the RBNZ to cut the interest rate
by 25bps this Thursday.

NZD outlook may depend on whether the

RBNZ will imply cut rates again in the policy
statement.

0.6952 (Jul low)

Technical Analysis:

Without implication of further rate cuts, NZD

may test higher to 0.7325 (5.68) or even
0.7564 (5.87).

By contrast, with implication of further rate

cuts, NZD may retreat to 0.6952 (5.39).
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Aug 5, 2016

Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last part
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar,
with HKD $7.7551 exchange rate for reference

AUD/USD
Last Price

Last wk
High

Last wk
Low

2nd
Support

1st Support

1st
Resistance

2nd
Resistance

0-3m

6-12m

0.7619
(5.91)

0.7664
(5.94)

0.7491
(5.81)

0.7409
(5.75)

0.7490
(5.81)

0.7835
(6.08)

0.8164
(6.33)

0.77
(5.97)

0.78
(6.05)

AUD may be supported as the RBA is unlikely to cut rates

again this year
Weekly recap: AUD rose as the RBA did not imply to cut rates
further, although it cut the interest rate by 25bps to 1.5%.
Outlook analysis: Since the RBA cut the interest rate by 50bps
in three months, we expect the RBA may keep the interest rate
unchanged this year unless inflation plunges in Q3. AUDs yield
advantage may continue to attract fund inflows, which may
support AUD.
Technical analysis: Since the RSI rose gradually, AUD/USD
may range trade between 0.7490-0.7835 (5.81-6.08), with upside
bias.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

0.7835 (Apr top)

0.7409-0.7490 (fibo 0.618 & 0.50)

Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Aug 5, 2016

GBP/USD
Last Price

Last wk
High

Last wk
Low

1.3073 1.3372 1.3022

(10.14) (10.37) (10.10)

2nd
Support

1st Support

1st
Resistance

2nd
Resistance

0-3m

6-12m

GBP/USD Daily Chart

1.2500
(9.69)

1.2798
(9.92)

1.3372 1.3481
(10.37) (10.45)

1.25
(9.69)

1.28
(9.93)

1.3372-1.3481 (Last week & Jul 15 tops)

BP may be undermined as the BOE may cut the interest rate

by 15bps in November
Weekly recap: GBP plunged on a larger-than-expected scale of
policy easing as the BOE announced to cut the interest rate by
25bps to 0.25% and expand asset purchase program to 70bn
pounds.
Outlook analysis: Most members agreed to cut rates further if
economic growth is close to zero in 2H. Thus, we expect the BOE
may cut the interest rate by 15bps to 0.1% in November, which
may undermine GBP.
Technical analysis: Since the RSI retreated, GBP/USD may
drop to 1.2798 (9.92), with resistance at 1.3372-1.3481 (10.3710.45).

1.2500-1.2798 (0-3
month forecast & Jul low)

Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Aug 5, 2016

Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last part
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar,
with HKD $7.7551 exchange rate for reference

USD/JPY
Last Price

Last wk
High

Last wk
Low

2nd
Support

1st Support

1st
Resistance

2nd
Resistance

0-3m

6-12m

USD/JPY Daily Chart

99.02 102.83 103.99

101.82 102.83 100.68 96.57
106
105
(76.16) (75.42) (77.03) (80.31) (78.32) (75.42) (74.57) (73.16) (73.86)

JPY recent strength may not be reversed due to no apparent

short-term catalyst
Weekly recap: JPY rose amid unsurprising stimulus package as
the Japanese government announced the details of 28.1trn yen
stimulus package including 13.5trn yen fiscal expenditure.
Outlook analysis: Not more than 7.5bn yen in the stimulus
package is new government expenditure. Support for the
economy may be limited. In the short term, since the Japanese
government and the BOJ already announced measures to boost
the economy, JPY recent strength may not be reversed due to no
apparent short-term catalyst.
Technical analysis: USD/JPY may range trade between 99.02103.99 (78.32-74.57), with downside bias. A breach of 99.02 may
send the pair to 95.57 (80.31).

102.83-103.99 (Aug
2 top & Jul 26 low)

99.02 (Jun low)

96.57 (Oct 2013 low)

Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Aug 5, 2016

USD/CAD
Last Price

Last wk
High

Last wk
Low

2nd
Support

1st Support

1st
Resistance

2nd
Resistance

0-3m

6-12m

1.3172
(5.89)

1.3200
(5.88)

1.2997
(5.97)

1.2832
(6.04)

1.2987
(5.97)

1.3312
(5.83)

1.3575
(5.71)

1.30
(5.97)

1.26
(6.15)

CAD may be restrained as the BOC may cut rates in year-end

Weekly recap: CAD dropped as Canada's employment dropped
31K unexpectedly in July, although CAD was once supported as
oil price rebounded due to a drop in gasoline inventory.
Outlook analysis: Weak data may raise concern about Canada's
economic outlook. We expect the BOC may cut rates in year-end,
which may restrain CAD, due to global economic uncertainty and
uncertainty on the effectiveness of stimulus plans.
Technical analysis: Due to the neutral RSI, the pair may range
trade between 1.2987-1.3312 (5.97-5.83). If USD/CAD breaches
1.3312, the pair may rise to 1.3575 (5.71).

USD/CAD Daily Chart

1.3312-1.3575 (fibo 0.618
& 0.50)

1.2832-1.2987 (Jul
low & fibo 0.764)

Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Aug 5, 2016

Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last part
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar,
with HKD $7.7551 exchange rate for reference

EUR/USD
Last Price

Last wk
High

Last wk
Low

2nd
Support

1st Support

1st
Resistance

2nd
Resistance

0-3m

6-12m

USD/CAD Daily Chart

1.1086
(8.60)

1.1234
(8.71)

1.1046
(8.57)

1.0782
(8.36)

1.0941
(8.48)

1.1234
(8.71)

1.1358
(8.81)

1.10
(8.53)

1.15
(8.92)

1.1234-1.1358 (Last week & fibo 0.764)

EUR may be restrained as the ECB may further ease policy

in September
Weekly recap: EUR dropped on a rise in USD due to strong US
job data and as Euro Area retail sales grew 1.6% yoy in July,
lower than expectation of 1.8%.
Outlook analysis: Although Brexit is currently having no serious
impact on the economy, we expect political uncertainty may
dampen investment and economic growth next year. Together
with weak core inflation at 0.9%, the ECB may further ease policy
in Sep, which may restrain EUR.
Technical analysis: EUR/USD retreated upon a breach of
1.1199, fibo 0.618. The pair may range trade between 1.09411.1234 (8.48-8.71).

1.0941 (fibo 0.382)

Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Aug 5, 2016

USD/CNH
Last Price

Last wk High

Last wk Low

2nd Support

1st Support

1st Resistance

2nd Resistance

6.6660
(1.1634)

6.6720
(1.1623)

6.6239
(1.1708)

6.6031
(1.1744)

6.6228
(1.1710)

6.7195
(1.1541)

6.7618
(1.1469)

CNH may be pressured on continued capital outflow

Weekly recap: CNH dropped on a surge in USD and concern on
China's economic outlook as China's official manufacturing PMI
retreated to 49.9 in July.
Outlook analysis: Despite the stable economic data in China,
we expect weak private investment and adverse weather
condition in Yangtze River may cause the GDP growth to be only
6.2-6.3%. With capital outflow, RMB may be pressured.
Technical analysis: Since the RSI rebounded from oversold
territory, the pair may test higher to 6.6869-6.7195 (1.15971.1541).

USD/CNH Daily Chart

6.6869-6.7195 (fibo 0.236 & Jul top)

6.6031-6.6228 (fibo
0.50 & Jul low)

Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of Aug 5, 2016

Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last part

Upcoming Economic Figures and Events

RBNZ rate decision may become market focus

July Retail Sales

US

We expect retail sales may be supported by previous corporate sales promotions.

Job data and ISM index reflected strong US economy. An upbeat retail sales data
may raise expectation of a rate hike in December.

July Industrial Production

China

China's official manufacturing PMI dropped 0.1% to 49.9. Production sub-index

even dropped 0.4 ppts. Together with a fall in corporate steel production, we
expect industrial production slows down from 6.2% yoy to 6.1% yoy.

Aug 12 (Tue):
Retail Sales (MoM)
Citi Forecast
Previous
0.4%
0.6%

Aug 12 (Fri):
Industrial Production
Citi Forecast
Previous
6.1%
6.2%

RBNZ Rate Decision

New
Zealand

The RBNZ previously released an economic statement and said further easing
would be needed.
The new macroprudential tools on the property market may pave the way for rate
cuts.

Aug 11 (Thu):
RBNZ Rate Decision

Thus, we expect the RBNZ to cut the interest rate by 25bps.

Japan June Current Account

Japan

We expect a surge in real export may support a strong gain in trade surplus in June.
A rebound in tourist growth may also narrow services deficit, which may support
current account surplus.

Aug 8 (Mon):
Current Account
Citi Forecast
Previous
970.6bn
1809.1bn

Appendix 1:
Citi Interest Rate and FX Forecast for 2016
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last part

Citi FX Outlook Forecast

Dollar Index
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
USD/CNY

0-3 month
97.92
1.10
1.25
106
0.99
0.77
0.69
1.30
6.73

Source: Citi, forecast as of Jul 22, 2016

6-12 month
94.13
1.15
1.28
105
0.96
0.78
0.70
1.26
6.80

Citi FX Interest Rate Forecast

8/5/16
0.50
0.00
0.25
-0.10
-0.75
1.50
2.25
0.50
2.75

3Q 16
0.50
-0.10
0.25
-0.10
-0.75
1.50
2.00
0.50
2.50
Rate cut
expectations

4Q 16
0.75
-0.20
0.10
-0.10
-0.75
1.50
2.00
0.25
2.50

1Q 17
0.75
-0.25
0.10
-0.30
-0.75
1.50
2.00
0.25
2.50

Rate hike
expectations

EUR

EUR/USD continued to range trade between 1.05-1.15. However, high level of Eurozone current account surplus
may support the pair to 1.15-1.20 range in medium to long term.

GBP

Fiscal, trade, and current account deficits may send GBP lower in medium term, despite a short-term bounce. For
the coming 6-12 months, GBP may fall to 1.28 level.

AUD

Although the RBA may cut rate in Aug, we revised up AUDs 0-3 month and 6-12 month forecasts to 0.77 and 0.78
respectively, as market risk receded and investors are looking for yield play.

CHF

The CHF remains overvalued, but we still think the SNB may continue to favour intervening in FX markets, which
may undermine CHF. Thus, we maintain USD/CHF 6-12 month forecast at 0.96.

JPY

As the BOJ may expand easing measures, we revised up USD/JPYs 0-3 month forecast to 106, while the pair
may fall back to 100 level in medium term as JPY may still far lower than the fair value.
10

Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last part

Appendix 2:
Citi FX Quarterly Forecasts

3Q '16

4Q '16

1Q '17

2Q '17

3Q '17

4Q '17

1Q '18

2Q '18

3Q '18

Dollar Index

97.3

95.8

94.5

93.7

93.1

92.5

91.9

91.4

90.7

EUR/USD

1.10

1.12

1.15

1.15

1.16

1.17

1.17

1.18

1.19

GBP/USD

1.26

1.27

1.28

1.28

1.29

1.30

1.30

1.31

1.33

USD/JPY

106

105

105

104

103

102

101

100

100

USD/CNH

0.99

0.97

0.96

0.95

0.95

0.94

0.94

0.93

0.93

AUD/USD

0.77

0.78

0.78

0.78

0.78

0.79

0.79

0.79

0.79

NZD/USD

0.69

0.70

0.70

0.70

0.70

0.69

0.69

0.69

0.69

USD/CAD

1.29

1.28

1.26

1.25

1.24

1.23

1.21

1.20

1.20

USD/CNY

6.74

6.77

6.79

6.83

6.87

6.91

6.95

6.99

6.96

USD/SGD

1.38

1.39

1.39

1.39

1.39

1.40

1.40

1.40

1.39

USD/BRL

3.29

3.38

3.48

3.55

3.61

3.67

3.73

3.79

3.81

USD/RUB

61.9

61.0

60.2

60.1

60.3

60.6

60.8

61.0

60.8

USD/ZAR

15.08

15.27

15.45

15.55

15.61

15.67

15.73

15.79

15.88

Source: Citi, forecasts as of July 22, 2016

11

Appendix 3:
Last weeks Economic Figures
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last part

Time

Importance

Event

Period

Actual

Survey

Prior

Jun
Aug

-3195m
1.50%

-2000m
1.50%

-2418m
1.75%

Jul
Jul

6.90%
-31.2k

6.90%
10.0k

6.80%
-0.7k

Jul
Jul

49.9
53.9

50
--

50
53.7

Jul

52.0

51.9

51.9

2Q

0.40%

0.50%

0.40%

Australia
08/02/2016 09:30
08/02/2016 12:30

Tue
Tue

!
!!!

Trade Balance
RBA Cash Rate Target

08/05/2016 20:30
08/05/2016 20:30

Fri
Fri

!!
!!

Unemployment Rate
Net Change in Employment

08/01/2016 09:00
08/01/2016 09:00

Mon
Mon

!!
!!

Manufacturing PMI
Non-manufacturing PMI

Canada
China
Euro Area
08/01/2016 16:00

Mon

!!

Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

08/03/2016 06:45

Wed

!!

Pvt Wages Ex Overtime QoQ

New Zealand
U.K.
08/01/2016 16:30

Mon

!!

Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA

Jul

48.2

49.1

49.1

08/04/2016 19:00

Thu

!!!

Bank of England Bank Rate

Aug

0.25%

0.25%

0.50%

08/04/2016 19:00

Thu

!!!

Bank of England Inflation Report

Aug

08/01/2016 22:00
08/02/2016 20:30
08/02/2016 20:30
08/03/2016 20:15
08/04/2016 20:30
08/04/2016 22:00
08/05/2016 20:30
08/05/2016 20:30

Mon
Tue
Tue
Wed
Thu
Thu
Fri
Fri

!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
!!
!!!
!!!

ISM Manufacturing
Personal Income
Personal Spending
ADP Employment Change
Initial Jobless Claims
Durable Goods Orders
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls
Unemployment Rate

52.6
0.20%
0.40%
179k
269k
-3.90%

53
0.30%
0.30%
170k
265k
-4.00%

53.2
0.20%
0.40%
176k
266k
-4.00%

255k
4.90%

180k
4.80%

292k
4.90%

U.S.

Source: Bloomberg L.P.

Jul
Jun
Jun
Jul
Jul
Jun
Jul
Jul

12

Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last part

Appendix 4:
Upcoming Economic Figures (Aug 8, 2016 Aug 12, 2016)

Time

Importance

Event

Period

Actual

Survey

Prior

Jul
Aug

---

---

6
99.1

Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul

------

$47.80b
1.80%
6.20%
10.50%
8.90%

$48.11b
1.90%
6.20%
10.60%
9.00%

2Q

--

1.60%

1.60%

Jun

--

1100.0b

1809.1b

Aug
Jul
2Q

----

2.00%
-1.00%

2.25%
57.7
0.80%

Jun
Jun

---

1.40%
--

1.40%
-2263

Jun
Aug
Jul
Aug

-----

--0.40%
91.5

5500
269k
0.60%
90

Australia
08/09/2016 09:30
08/10/2016 08:30
08/10/2016 11:05

Tue
Wed
Wed

!
!
!!

NAB Business Confidence

Westpac Consumer Conf Index

08/08/2016
08/09/2016 09:30
08/12/2016 10:00
08/12/2016 10:00
08/12/2016 10:00

Mon
Tue
Fri
Fri
Fri

!
!
!!
!
!!

Trade Balance
CPI YoY
Industrial Production YoY
Retail Sales YoY
Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY

08/12/2016 17:00

Fri

GDP SA YoY

08/08/2016 07:50

Mon

BoP Current Account Balance

RBA Governor Stevens Speech in Sydney

China

Euro Area
Japan
New Zealand
08/11/2016 05:00
08/12/2016 06:30
08/12/2016 06:45

Thu
Fri
Fri

!!!
!
!

RBNZ Official Cash Rate

BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI
Retail Sales Ex Inflation QoQ

08/09/2016 16:30
08/09/2016 16:30

Tue
Tue

!!
!

Industrial Production YoY

Trade Balance

U.K.
U.S.
08/10/2016 22:00
08/11/2016 20:30
08/12/2016 20:30
08/12/2016 22:00

Source: Bloomberg L.P.

Wed
Thu
Fri
Fri

!
!
!
!!

JOLTS Job Openings

Initial Jobless Claims
Retail Sales Advance MoM
U. of Mich. Sentiment

13

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Important Disclosure
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15

Important Disclosure
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16

Important Disclosure
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17