Engineering Geology 109 (2009) 170182

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Engineering Geology
j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w. e l s ev i e r. c o m / l o c a t e / e n g g e o

GIS-based assessment of risk due to salt mining activities at Tuzla

(Bosnia and Herzegovina)
F. Mancini a,, F. Stecchi b, G. Gabbianelli b
a
b

Politecnico di Bari, Via Orabona 4, 70125 Bari, Italy

Universit di Bologna, Via S. Alberto 163, 48100 Ravenna, Italy

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history:
Received 19 January 2009
Received in revised form 4 June 2009
Accepted 25 June 2009
Available online 6 July 2009
Keywords:
Subsidence
Ground deformation
Salt mining
Risk assessment
Multicriteria decision analysis
GIS

a b s t r a c t
Ground subsidence triggered by salt mining from deposits located beneath the city of Tuzla (Bosnia and
Herzegovina) is one of the major dangers acting on a very densely urbanized area since 1950, when the salt
deposit exploitation by means of boreholes began. As demonstrated in this paper, subsidence induced several
hazard factors such as severe ground deformations, the arising of deep and supercial fractures and a very
fast water table rise, connected with the brine extraction, now affecting several districts. The above
mentioned factors have been quantied by the use of geomatic methodologies, including eld surveys and
analysis of geographical data. In order to estimate the historical sinking rates, authors processed the large
(and never before processed) amount of topographical data collected during two periods; from 1956 to 1991,
and from 1992 to 2003, with only poor data collected. Afterward, traditional surveys were completely and
denitively stopped. The analysis reveals a cumulative subsidence as high as 12 m during the whole period,
causing damage to buildings and infrastructures within an area that includes a large portion of the historical
town, at present almost entirely destroyed. Modern sinking rates have been monitored with static GPS
whereas the presence of supercial fractures monitored with kinematic GPS. Factors related to the presence
of deep fractures and water table rise have been evaluated by curvature analysis techniques and piezometric
data respectively. Finally, hazard factors have been combined in a risk map using the GIS (Geographical
Information System) map algebra capabilities and a simple multicriteria decision analysis (MDA). In order to
do that, a vulnerability map has been derived on the basis of information reported on a couple of recently
sensed high resolution satellite imageries. The nal risk, arisen from the combination of single hazard factors
and vulnerability map, highlights critical scenarios and unsuspected threatening that are under consideration
by the local decision makers and urban planners. In particular, as highlighted in the nal risk map, the
present-day water table rise, triggered by the decrease in brine pumping, is seriously posing a threat to a
portion of the city which is not the most involved in ground deformations.
2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Literature concerning subsidence-related problems caused by
natural or man-induced dissolution of evaporites is rich of very well
documented cases of study. Several cases in Great Britain related to
natural and articial dissolutions of the Permian and Triassic
evaporites (halite) have been discussed by Cooper (1996, 2002),
Reuter and Stoyan (1993) investigated sinkholes in karst regions in
Germany, Gutirrez et al. (2001, 2008) and Gutirrez and Cooper
(2002) reported a wide range of cases of study related to natural
Triassic and Tertiary evaporites dissolution in Spain. Further contributions by Spanish researchers are provided over a large area in the Ebro
basin where the sinkhole formation is frequently encountered
Corresponding author. Dipartimento di Architettura e Urbanistica, Politecnico di
Bari, Via Orabona 4, 70125 Bari, Italy. Tel.: +39 080 5963399; fax: +39 080 5963348.
E-mail addresses: f.mancini@poliba.it (F. Mancini), francesco.stecchi2@unibo.it
(F. Stecchi), giovanni.gabbianelli@unibo.it (G. Gabbianelli).
0013-7952/$ see front matter 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2009.06.018

(Gutirrez and Gutirrez, 1998; Soriano and Simn, 1995; Benito

et al., 1998, 2000; Soriano and Simn, 2001, 2002; Gutirrez-Santolalla
et al., 2005). In the United States hazards due to natural karstication
have been reviewed by Johnson (1997, 2005). The occurrences of
subsidence related to natural or induced evaporite solution have been
also investigated in several cities throughout Europe. Sinkholes in the
city of Stuttgart (Germany) have been described in Garleff et al. (1997)
and Toulemont (1984) studied ground subsidence in the outskirts of
Paris in France. In addition, effects related to gypsum dissolution at
Ripon (North Yorkshire, Great Britain) have been discussed by Cooper
(1988) and Cooper and Waltham (1999) whereas Guerrero et al.
(2004) and Soriano and Simn (2002) reported the hazard due to
evaporite dissolution in Zaragoza (Spain) and Gutirrez and Cooper
(2002) investigated the dissolution effects in the historical city of
Calatayud (NE Spain).
Subsidence due to dissolution of gypsum has been also discussed
by Pauktys et al. (1999) in the towns of Birai and Pasvalys (north
Lithuania) and a case study has been reported by Andrajchouk and

F. Mancini et al. / Engineering Geology 109 (2009) 170182

Klimchouk (1993) in the western Ukraine. Papers related to

topographical and geodetic investigations devoted to a rigorous
monitoring of ground deformation phenomena due to salt dissolution
beneath an urbanized area are less frequent. Ground deformation due
to conventional or solution mining on the Vauvert salt mine (France)
has been clearly detected from space by ERS radar interferometry
(Raucoules et al., 2003) and in the Cheshire and Worcestershire areas
(Great Britain) by Cooper (2002). Gutirrez et al. (2008) dealt with
such hazards and offered a systematic approach towards the
description of ground deformation mechanisms able to induce
sinkholes formation and offering an overview about available geodetic
techniques of investigation and possible methodologies for the
prediction and mitigation of risks.
More recently, papers focused on the assessment of dissolutionrelated hazards through GIS techniques have been published by Kim
et al. (2006), who reported a case related to hazard near an
abandoned underground coal mine at Samcheok City (Korea) and
by Cooper (2008) who reviewed the evaporite-karst geohazards in
Great Britain using the GIS approach for the analysis of gathered data.
Moreover, Merad et al. (2004) suggested the use of multicriteria
decision analysis for risk management of area subjected to mininginduced hazards.
2. The study case
This paper introduces a new case related to subsidence induced by
man-driven solution mining of a salt deposit located just beneath the
city of Tuzla in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Fig. 1) and illustrates the
possibilities offered by geomatic techniques for hazard denition and
GIS capabilities in the risk assessment through multicriteria decision
analysis (hereafter MDA).
Since Roman age the town of Tuzla is reported as the City of Salt
deposits and Springs. The name Tuzla was attributed in the 15th
century from the Ottomans following their conquest of the medieval
Bosnia (Donia and Fine, 1994) and derives from tuz, the Turkish
word for salt. The ancient method of brine extraction was to tap into

171

the natural brine springs, while the modern technique consists in

about 150 boreholes with pumps tapped to the natural underground
brine runs, at an average depth of 400500 m. This kind of
exploitation is sometimes called wild brine pumping being
impossible to know how the dissolution is going on. The mining
operation changed the hydrogeological conditions enabling the
downward ow of fresh water causing additional salt dissolution. As
demonstrated by Mancini et al. (2009) a direct linear relationship
between the amount of salt exploited and the average rate of
subsidence exists, highlighting that the exploitation rate plays a
major role in the subsiding process. This evidence arises from the
analysis of topographical data gathered from 1956 when traditional
trigonometric and spirit levelling surveys began (although the rst
geodetic surveys date back from 1914) with annual periodicity and
over a dense network. The deformation monitoring ended in 1992
because of the Civil War of the Balkan countries and in the decade
from 1992 to 2003 measurements were discontinuous and reduced in
the amount of data collected. From 2003 the geodetic monitoring
was completely stopped being the effort for eld activities no more
affordable.
As discussed in the next sections, the processing of the whole
historical series (that gathered during the 19562003 period) reveals a
cumulative subsidence up to 12 m. This impressive sinking phenomenon
did not produce sinkholes but the damages to buildings, sewage and
trafc lines were extremely relevant. Within the mentioned period
several additional information, such as the amount of brine water
pumped by the wells, piezometric levels, lithostratigraphic and
geotechnical parameters were collected and a database (D.O.O. Mining
Institute Tuzla, 2000) was created within a scientic cooperation
between the municipality of Tuzla and the city of Rotterdam (The
Netherlands). Successively, in order to investigate the spatio-temporal
evolution of the subsidence from a multidisciplinary perspective
(geodetic, geological and geophysical) a joint collaborative project
between the CIRSA (Centro Interdipartimentale di Ricerca per le Scienze
Ambientali, University of Bologna, Italy) and the Municipalities of
Ravenna (Italy) and Tuzla (Bosnia and Herzegovina) was set. The main

Fig. 1. The city of Tuzla (Bosnia and Herzegovina): location map.

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F. Mancini et al. / Engineering Geology 109 (2009) 170182

object of the partnership was the monitoring of modern subsidence

rates by space geodesy methodologies and the investigations of
subsidence-related geohazards; deformations, supercial and deep
fractures formation, water table rise and deepening as a consequence
of uctuations in the amount of salt water exploited. These, which
individually represent single hazard factors, induce a total risk to the
town in relation to the vulnerability of buildings and infrastructures. The
hazard factors affecting the area, have been separately investigated by
means of eld surveys and modern computer-aided technologies. At
present, subsidence is being monitored by geodetic GPS surveys, leading
to the evaluation of the modern sinking rates (up to 20 cm/y). Supercial
fractures have been mapped and deep fractures identied through a
mathematical curvature analysis implemented on the sinking surface. In
both cases the hazard factors are dened in terms of fractures density.
Water table level uctuations represent one of the relevant hazard
bearing phenomena. As a consequence of the recent reduction in brine
pumping, the piezometric monitoring shows a natural trend of water
table rising that is presently threatening the ooding of the most
subsided area. In order to process a total risk map in the city of Tuzla,
each hazard factor has been represented by a raster map with ve
intensity classes and a multicriteria analysis has been implemented to
dene the relative weight of single factors. A map resuming the total
hazard has been nally obtained, by means of map algebra procedures in
a GIS environment, and combined with the vulnerability map realized
on the basis of object density as derived by high resolution satellite
images. The risk maps obtained by the multiplication of hazard factors
and vulnerability maps (Varnes, 1984) delimit the area at risk where
new settlements should be avoided.
3. General information and geological setting
Tuzla is located in the northeastern part of Bosnia and Herzegovina,
settled just underneath the Majevica mountain range at an average
height of 239 m above sea level. The central zone is situated in the plain
of the Jala river, which shares the settlements into northern and
southern parts. After Sarajevo and Banja Luka, Tuzla is nowadays the
third largest city in Bosnia and Herzegovina with its 39 local districts
and 160,000 inhabitants.
Tuzla formations are part of the South Pannonian Basin ll. This
Neogene basin has been interpreted as a retroarc basin that started by
rifting processes in the Paratethys at the beginning of the Early
Miocene. As reported by Hrvatovi (2006), it consists of limestones,
marls, sandstones, and salt of AquitanianBurdigalian age (Late
Egerian, Eggenburgian, Otthnangian and Karpatian following the
Central Paratethyan stratigraphic division). After the termination of
the rifting activity slow subsidence continued till a new marine
regression produced a regional unconformity. Marine conditions were
restored in the Early Pannonian as revealed by the 600 m thick marl
and clayey limestone successions deposited in stagnant, anoxic,
carbon-rich, deep basinal areas. During the Pannonian age the
depositional environments changed into freshwater basins and
turbidites are overlain by prograding delta slope, delta front and
delta at clastics. These sequences of interbedded sandstones,
siltstones and marls reach the maximum thicknesses of more than
15002000 m in the area of interest (Tari and Pami, 1998). Further
details related to the tectonic settings could be found in Katzer (1903),
Sokli (1959, 1964, 1982), Stevanovi (1977), Cici (2002), Jovanovi
(1980) and Vraba (1999). In the Neogene succession limestone,
marls, sandstones, and salt of AquitanianBurdigalian age are present
(Hrvatovi, 2006).
As shown in Fig. 2 the salt deposits, related to the evolution of the
South Pannonian basin, are located beneath the city of Tuzla and
surrounding areas. The salt body (halite) has an ellipsoidal shape and
covers an area of about 2 km2.
Fig. 2 resumes in the lower part of the salt bodies depth as revealed
by coring and seismic prospections along the cross section AA. The salt

series contain siltstone, nely grained sandstone, limestone, dolomitic,

limestone, and tuffs. Concerning the salt bodies, halite represents the
main evaporite, but anhydrite, gypsum, and other evaporites are also
existing. The thickness of the evaporite banded series is 400500 m,
and the upper productive part is about 200 m. As can be seen in Fig. 2,
the largest part of this formation is located on the northern side of Jala
River where the deformation phenomena mainly occur.
4. Historical subsidence hazard from past topographical
measurements and its relations with salt exploitation activities
Before the start of the exploitation, the halite formations were in
equilibrium with saturated brines and sealed by shaly siltstones. The
uncontrolled extraction induced brine to ow towards the extraction
boreholes, changing the local hydrogeology and inducing additional
dissolution. The salt mining was initially (during about six months)
carried out by fresh water injection to speed up the dissolution
process. This method was immediately stopped after the occurrence of
a 50 m diameter sinkhole phenomenon in the suburban area. This was
the only sinkhole documented in the area along the last fty years
whereas the subsidence mechanisms are well described by a sequence
of sagging and fracturing stages. As a result, in the last fty years the
ground subsidence amounts to 4 million m3 in volume and the
piezometric level dropped 100 m (Tati, 1979).
The rst available data concerning episodic geodetic surveys date
back to 1914 when trigonometric and spirit levelling were carried out
in order to detect possible ground deformations that followed and
were likely to be caused by the salt exploitation. Moreover, a more
systematic investigation by traditional surveys was performed since
1956 with an annual frequency and over a very dense topographical
network that was initially composed of 1500 benchmarks distributed
within a 5 km2 wide area covering the most urbanized sector and its
surrounding, where the brine exploitation was taking place by the
well activities. The yearly, or even shorter, topographical surveys were
kept until 1992 when a 10 year long almost complete interruption
occurred as a consequence of the civil war in the former Yugoslavia.
The very poor, and less reliable, measurements available within the
period 19922003 do allow a less comprehensive investigation of the
ongoing subsidence phenomena and their relation with the mining
activities. In order to quantify the historical sinking rates, data stored
in the database (spanning from 1956 to 2003) were processed after
the removal of outliers (mainly due to the presence of gross errors in
the original data sheet) and measurements related to unstable or
damaged benchmarks. Unfortunately, not many ancillary information
was included in the database documentations and a reliable data
adjustment procedure of elevation data has been performed on a
portion of the dataset only. In Fig. 3 the total amount of subsidence
that occurred during the 19562003 period is shown in addition to the
cumulative amount of brine exploitation related to wells that have
been working during that period.
Fig. 3 quanties the subsidence that occurred in the city of Tuzla
with a clearly visible regular shape of the deformation model. In the
mentioned period, a cumulative value up to 12 m has been detected
(central portion of the image). In that area some benchmarks exhibit
an average annual sinking rate of 25 cm/yr that produced several
collapse of buildings and hundreds of seriously damaged proprieties.
The analysis of time series depicted in the plot of Fig. 3 highlights the
increase in average subsidence rates up to year 1982 when, due to a
reduction in the exploitation activities, the subsidence slowed down.
From 1984 a stability in the amount of salt exploitation corresponds to
a stableness in sinking phenomena. Nevertheless, as revealed by the
plot, salt water pumped by wells and subsidence rates is strongly and
inversely correlated. The main cause driving the ground deformation
in Tuzla is therefore established. A more detailed description of such
processes and a quantication of volumes involved are reported in
Mancini et al. (2009).

F. Mancini et al. / Engineering Geology 109 (2009) 170182

173

Fig. 2. Geological map of Tuzla area with superimposed limit of the salt deposit (dark solid line).

5. Present-day hazards
In order to assess the subsidence-related risk in the city of Tuzla
the main acting hazard factors have to be addressed and quantied in
addition to the vulnerability of the investigated sectors, the latter
being dependent on the presence of buildings and residential areas
affected by ground instabilities. Most of the information used in the

hazard assessment was derived from the new geodatabase realized by

re-organizing the data provided by previous investigation and
completed with information provided by geodetical and geophysical
surveys performed since the beginning of the cooperating project.
Data implemented in a geodatabase structure make the processing
within the GIS environment easier and time effective whenever data
are carefully georeferenced according to the geographical scale of

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F. Mancini et al. / Engineering Geology 109 (2009) 170182

Fig. 3. Contour line representing the cumulative sinking amount (m) as a consequence of salt exploitation within the period 19562003 and total amount (m3) of brine water
pumped by wells operating during the same period. The lower plot depicts a comparison between the trends in annual average sinking rates (cm/yr), as solid line, and annual amount
of brine water pumped (m3), as dotted line. The reference period of such analysis is limited to the period spanning from 1956 to 1992.

investigation. The major factors contributing to ground subsidence or

triggered by the deformation phenomena are discussed in the
following sections: modern sinking rates, recent trend in water table
rise, presence of supercial or deep fractures. Each of them constitutes
a single hazard factor to be combined with the vulnerability in the risk
assessment procedure.
5.1. Modern subsidence rates
After stopping the traditional surveys that occurred in 2003 more
recent observation on ground deformation was needed in order to
collect new information on modern subsidence rates, relate them with
the mining activities still carried out and provide a useful knowledge
for future planning of activities. Therefore, starting from 2004, the
static relative GPS positioning was selected by the Italian surveying
team operating in Bosnia and a GPS network composed of 6 reference
stations and 60 densication points included in the subsiding area

were established (Stecchi et al., 2006; Mancini et al., 2009) and

surveyed, through the static and fast-static relative positioning, four
times within the 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 eld activities. Fig. 4
depicts the network design with reference and densication stations.
The measurement activities carried out during the 2004 and 2005
eld activities were used to frame the Tuzla GPS network within the
International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF, epoch 2000) and
verify the stability of the monuments used as reference. In more detail,
the IGS permanent stations of Medicina (MEDI), Matera (MATE), Soa
(SOFI) and Penc (PENC), have been connected to the Tuzla network by
the combination of GPS observations and a common Least Squares
Adjustment (LSA) procedure. Results related to the reference network
(points F1F6) conrmed its stability within an accuracy of 1.2 cm
mainly due to the involved baseline length.
The comparison of solutions provided by the processing of data
collected during the 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 GPS campaigns
highlights the modern subsidence rates as summarized in Table 1.

F. Mancini et al. / Engineering Geology 109 (2009) 170182

175

Fig. 4. Distribution of the reference and densication GPS stations around the subsiding area of Tuzla.

As reported in Table 1, a 1020 cm/yr subsidence rates are still

present during the period 20042005 (see points 7, 15 and 16) and
part of the historical area is subjected to 25 cm/yr subsidence rates,
with a considerable reduction if compared with the historical rates.
The 20052006 comparison reveals a dispersed decrease in the
subsidence rates. The most collapsing area (in proximity of the
recreational area near the Pinga lake) was the only one where sinking
rates are still close to 20 cm/yr, while the remaining part of the town
was affected by subsidence between 0 and 5 cm/y with a dispersed
decrease in the overall trend. In particular, the last comparison (2006
2007) shows that subsidence is presently turning to the end almost
everywhere, except for the Pinga area where subsidence rates are
gradually decreasing but still around 10 cm/y. Unfortunately, some of
the relevant benchmarks, those located in the lake area, have been
recently lost due to the establishment of a new recreational area
beside the Pinga.
5.2. Water table rise
Topographic depressions occurring in evaporite karst areas are
frequently prone to ooding either by the concentration of surface
runoff or by groundwater ooding when the water table rises above
their ground level (Gutirrez et al., 2008). Understanding the
hydrogeology of the study area is a crucial aspect of the sinking
hazard analysis, being the groundwater ow the main geological
agent responsible for the karstication of evaporite rocks. In

particular, the position of the water table (piezometric level) and

the relative changes through time and space have to be carefully
investigated. The wild brine pumping, fullled along almost 100 years,
strongly inuenced the groundwater level. To control the piezometric
level a monitoring was carried out by the Faculty of Mining, Geology
and Civil Engineering (University of Tuzla) allowing the creation of
water table maps of the years 1979, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2004
(Oru and Mandi, 2005). It is nowadays evident that the most
collapsed part of Tuzla is subjected to ooding during heavy rain
episodes with further complications arising from the water table rise
affecting the area as a consequence of brine pumping reduction
suspension.
A quantitative assessment of the water table rise was derived from
the numeralization in the GIS environment of the available isophreatic
maps allowing the spatial investigation of water table displacements
during the period 19852004 and, in order to identify the most
ooding-threatened areas of the town, the piezometric levels have
been successively correlated with the available Digital Terrain Model
(DTM). That allowed the quantication of water table distance below
the terrain surface, highlighting the areas where the groundwater
could reach the surface depending on the actual rising rates. In order
to proceed to that simulation, a DTM has been extrapolated from the
contour line map of the year 1965 biased by the subtraction of the
cumulative amount of subsiding within the period.
The comparison between the piezometric levels, carried out by
map algebra calculus, depicts an intense water table lowering from the

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F. Mancini et al. / Engineering Geology 109 (2009) 170182

Table 1
Comparison between elevation changes of densication stations detected during the
years 20042005, 20052006 and 20062007 (unit of meters).
Station

20042005

20052006

20062007

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44

0.00
0.00
0.01
0.05
0.07
0.08
0.21
0.01
0.03
0.13
0.06
0.01
0.08
0.21
0.12
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.03
0.01
0.04
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.03
0.00
0.02
0.01
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.01
0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.10
0.08
0.19
0.03
0.01
0.09
0.06
0.00
0.05

0.18
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.01
0.00
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.06
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.00
0.01

0.01
0.02
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01

0.06
0.02
0.00
0.02

0.02

0.10
0.00
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.00
0.02
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.03
0.01
0.01
0.00

0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.01

0.03
0.02
0.01

Vertical accuracy could be considered better than 1 cm/yr (at 95% level of signicance)
and single values are not listed (points destroyed by ground deformation phenomena;
points not surveyed).

year 1979 to 1985, that corresponds to a period of intense brine

pumping activities. Conversely, from the year 1985 to the year 2004
the data highlight a gradual water table rise that reached 90 m over a
wide portion of the investigated area. Fig. 5 represents such trend in a
double perspective; the rst reported as a map where grey levels are
revelatory of the rising (positive values) or lowering (negative values)
rates.
Fig. 5 shows also very well how the piezometric level exhibits
negative values (deepening) in correspondence of areas not involved
in the brine pumping. A diffuse depression in the piezometric surfaces
is also detected by the data.

(salt rock) and saline groundwater movement that mask the seismic
and resistivity signals respectively (basic, personal communication).
Determining the style, orientation, and density of fractures in folded
or domed strata in the study of subsurface, is a critical step in any
successful aquifer/reservoir management.
Various authors suggest the use of surface attributes, such as the
surface curvature and rate of dip change, in the attempt to determine
the location and amount of deformation in folded subsurface strata
(Bergbauer and Pollard, 2003a,b; Allwardt et al., 2007). A novel
approach to identify the localization of faults and fractures in the
subsurface and the delineation of high risk zones in Tuzla area is
therefore proposed. We present the effectiveness of curvature analysis
(Lisle, 1994) applied to cumulative sinking envelope surfaces, as a
replacement to classical topography and geophysical techniques.
Curvature analysis allows to identify areas on a surface where the
deformation is more or less localized and, therefore, helps in the
identication of zones that are potentially faulted and fractured.
Several curvature analysis techniques were tested with a very high
degree of accordance. For brevity reasons only results provided by the
Gaussian curvature (Fischer and Wilkerson, 2000; Bergbauer and
Pollard, 2003a; Pearce et al., 2006) are discussed.
The Gaussian curvature analysis has been applied to the deformation eld derived by the historical data analysis, discussed in Section 3,
after interpolation of the data (Stecchi et al., 2009). The surface
envelope of the total subsidence has therefore been considered as a
record of the strain partitioning within the Tuzla city and, given its
small scale smoothness, is an ideal surface on which to study
curvature. Results provided by the curvature analysis are shown in
Fig. 6 where high curvature values indicate possible fractured and
faulted areas corresponding to localizations of the strain.
Positive Gaussian curvature values are interpreted as indicators for
horst structures or, more in general, for the footwall of a subsurface
fault. On the other hand, negative Gaussian curvature values are
interpreted as sink or basin-like features related to graben
structures or, more in general, to the hanging wall of normal faults.
Fig. 6 puts in evidence higher curvature values in the northeastern
part of the town, corresponding to the areas that have been mostly
damaged by subsidence.
5.4. Supercial deformation through inferred fractures
The identication of areas where local strain produced supercial
faults and fractures has been accomplished by the GPS mapping of
faults and fractures visible on the terrain. Unfortunately, the most
fractured and faulted sector correspond to areas where the buildings
have been gradually demolished by the ground deformation. Consequently, these areas have been deeply modied by human restoring
activities and the original surface faults are now almost completely
obliterated. On the contrary, fractures and faults are still evident on
the streets and walkway of the downtown, where old buildings are
still present and somewhat damaged. As shown in Fig. 6 the pattern of
detected supercial fractures (represented by dashed lines) follows
the NWSE directions, conrming the stress eld highlighted from the
Gaussian curvature analysis.
6. Total risk assessment

5.3. Deep fracturing by means of curvature analysis

As proved in laboratory with several tests and models by Hongxing
and Jackson (1998), salt dissolution is able to induce the formation of
faults and fractures due to the ongoing collapsing phenomenon.
Several techniques, such as borehole drillings, geo-electric resistivity
and seismic refraction surveys, were used to investigate the presence
and location of the deformed structures. However, results did not fully
contributed towards a better comprehension of the faults and
fractures pattern because of the existence of a low velocity layer

Following the approach proposed by Varnes (1984), there are

three essential components in the determination of risk: hazard, the
probability of experiencing any natural or technological hazard at a
location or in a region; elements at risk, identifying and making an
inventory of people or buildings or economic factors, which would be
affected by the hazard if it should occur and vulnerability of the
elements at risk, which relates on proneness of buildings and
properties to be affected by hazards (with economical losses). A
slightly different approach to risk assessment was proposed by Crozier

F. Mancini et al. / Engineering Geology 109 (2009) 170182

Fig. 5. Amount of water table rise from the year 1985 to the 2004 (m).

Fig. 6. The Gaussian curvature (1/m2) map obtained by the 19562003 sinking data.

177

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F. Mancini et al. / Engineering Geology 109 (2009) 170182

and Glade (2005) who identied the level of risk as results from the
intersection of hazards with the values of the elements at risk through
a vulnerability analysis. However, in this paper the potential annual
risk in a given area will be estimated using the formula (Varnes, 1984):
R=

H4E4V

where R represents the risk, as victims or nancial/properties losses

within a reference period; H is the hazard; E the exposure or elements
at risk; V the vulnerability, given by the unitary fraction of the
exposure. The risk assessment requires a quantication of each single
hazard factors to be combined with the E and V components. This kind
of computation has to be related to a well dened sub-region of the
investigated area. In the next section the single hazard factors will be
referred to a regular 50 50 m spaced grid in order to use raster data
and map algebra tools to produce a thematic map depicting the total
risk due to subsidence phenomena.
6.1. Geohazard intensity classes
The previous section dealt with the identication and quantication of factors related to the collapsing phenomena occurring in Tuzla
since 60 years. These factors, which individually represent a single
hazard, induce a risk to the town, in relation to the vulnerability of
buildings and infrastructures. In order to proceed with a present-day
risk assessment a short time interval was chosen for the risk analysis.
In particular all rates involved in the analysis will be referred to the
20042005 time interval. An overall geohazard will be therefore
computed starting from the annual subsidence rates, supercialfracturing intensity, deep-fracturing intensity and annual water table
rise rates.
Each of the hazard factors listed above was sampled over the 50 m
cell grid and re-classied into a ramp of 5 classes reporting different
levels of intensity (from low to high). Table 2 lists a severity scale for
hazard factors taken into account.
In Table 2 the annual sinking rates (m/yr) were derived from GPS
static measurements. The second factor, related to the water table rise
as detected from recording the piezometric levels, is based upon the
assumption that the most threatened areas are located where, given
the current rates of water table rise, the water will reach the surface in
a shorter period. This has been accomplished by means of data
manipulation in the GIS, that is the ratio between the water table level
mapped in 2004 (expressed as distance between the piezometric limit
and the ground surface) and the annual rate of water rise. Areas with

Table 2
Intensity classes for individual hazards.
Hazard

Classes

Reference values

Deformation (sinking rate)

1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5

From 0.01 to 0.00 m/yr

From 0.03 to 0.01 m/yr
From 0.07 to 0.03 m/yr
From 0.12 to 0.07 m/yr
From 0.22 to 0.12 m/yr
No hazard (no rising level)
Time greater than 30 yr
From 20 to 30 yr
From 10 to 20 yr
From 0 to 10 yr
From 0.0 to 0.2 m/ha
From 0.2 to 0.8 m/ha
From 0.8 to 1.4 m/ha
From 1.4 to 2.6 m/ha
From 2.6 to 4.6 m/ha
From 0.0 to 0.2 m/ha
From 0.2 to 0.8 m/ha
From 0.8 to 1.4 m/ha
From 1.4 to 2.6 m/ha
From 2.6 to 4.6 m/ha

Water table rise

Supercial fractures density

Deep fracturing

moderate-to-high slope, or located on hills, are ltered out from the

analysis considering their low or null proneness to ooding hazards.
In Table 2 the water table rise factor of hazard is therefore expressed
as expected time (year) to water table outcropping. The needed
information is obtained from the DTM introduced in Section 4.2.
Hazard related to the density of deep and supercial fractures (m/ha)
has been inferred from the Gaussian curvature analysis and differential
GPS survey respectively. In more detail, the resulting density of fractures
(both deep and supercial) was sampled by a specic tool in the GIS
environment able to nd the density of linear features in the
neighbourhood of a certain raster cell by the selection of an appropriate
search radius. Density is calculated in unit of length per unit of area
(hectares).
6.2. Multicriteria decision analysis (MDA)
Several MDA-based methods with different decision models were
investigated in the last decade to assess many different types of risks
related to the presence of geohazards (Carrara et al., 1995; Aleotti and
Chowdhury, 1999; Ayalew and Yamagishi, 2005; Kolat et al., 2006;
Guzzetti et al., 2006; Malczewski, 2006; Douglas, 2007; Gonalves
et al., 2007; Hermans et al., 2007; Chang et al., 2008; Sterlacchini et al.,
2008; Wang et al., 2008). A comprehensive review on possible MDA
approaches is reported in Malczewski (1999) who investigated a wide
range of methodologies for criteria weighting and their implementation in the GIS environment. However the literature is not so rich of
cases involving a risk analysis in densely urbanized area due to
geological-derived hazards. A risk analysis in a settled area could be,
for instance, requested to select new sites for hospitals, schools,
factories or in the management of natural hazards potentially affecting
infrastructures (highways, bridges, technological network). Decision
of such type has to take into account all the hazard factors acting
within that area and a geographical analysis based on a particular
criteria has to be implemented in a GIS environment. Actually, these
geographic questions involve a multitude of alternatives and often
conicting evaluation criteria (Malczewski, 1999). Thus, a decision
rule has to be selected to dictate how best to order hazards in the total
risk analysis.
The order of preference of a hazard factor with respect to others is
usually quantied by establishing a weighting system (or a ranking)
between criteria (hazards from our point of view). The relative weight
of single hazard factor is hereafter created by a very simple and
common MDA; the pairwise comparison (Bana et al., 2003, 2006). By
this approach the normalized weight of the considered factors is
obtained by means of a matrix of factors and the pairwise comparison
(see Table 3). These techniques allow to create a classication of
hazard factors in terms of importance providing them with a relative
(or normalized) weight that represents the impact or performance of
a factor with regard to the others. Even if the comparison requires an
expert choice (a personal opinion by decision makers) in the
judgment step, MDA sensibly reduces the subjective components of
the specic alternative. In Table 3 value 1 indicates that the factor in
the matrix row is considered more important than the factor in the
Table 3
Pairwise comparison and relative (normalized) weights of the evaluation criterion.
Hazard

Subsidence
rate

Water Visible
Inferred Fictitious Total Normalized
rising fractures fractures factor
weight

Subsidence
rate
Water rising
Visible
fractures
Inferred
fractures
Fictitious
factor

0.2

1
1

1
1

1
1

3
4

0.3
0.4

0.1

0.0

F. Mancini et al. / Engineering Geology 109 (2009) 170182

matrix column (value 0 indicates the opposite). In the normalized

weight column values are given by the sum of row values divided by
the sum of total column values. The ctitious factor is introduced as
reference scale (avoiding a zero value of the less signicant factor)
and, by denition, it looses all the comparisons.
Weight criteria are based on the hypothesis that building stability
and integrity are more inuenced respectively by fractures than by
water ooding, subsidence and lastly by inferred fractures.
This choice is due to the fact that inferred fractures are an outcome
of a mathematical calculation and, therefore, even if their impact on
building could be considerable, their reliability is not consistent
enough as for observed factors, such as subsidence and water table
rise. Furthermore, a connection between fresh water inltration (with
further salt dissolution) and fractures could be hypothetically
established. Finally, the total hazard score is obtained by a simple
additive weighting procedure (SAW) by the GIS overlay capabilities
(Malczewski, 1999) and will be paired with vulnerability to proceed
with the nal map of risk.

6.3. Vulnerability and exposure

The assessment of vulnerability requires a careful census of the
element at risk. In the case of Tuzla the elements at risk are mainly
buildings and infrastructures. Due to a lack of information, infrastructures are not included in the analysis. For what concerns
inhabitants of Tuzla, the chance of death and injuries is very low or
absent, because ground collapsing phenomena always occurred as
gradual movements that never induced sudden building crashes. The
vulnerability analysis is therefore based on the presence/absence of

179

buildings in the currently threatened area, that is to assume V = 1 for

goods and properties and V = 0 for people's life.
In reality, a detailed analysis of buildings vulnerability should be
done taking into account several parameters such as: age, materials,
foundations, and presence of cracks. Tuzla local government didn't
provide such information yet, hence the vulnerability map was
created by this approach. The exposure map has been realized
considering the present-day building density within the threatened
area. It must be considered that mining-induced subsidence has
caused in the last 50 years dramatic effects on the buildings of Tuzla,
leading to the evacuation of a great part of the sinking area. The
sequence of such urban changes has been tracked from the analysis of
historical maps of the city (dated 1956 and 1965) and by more recent
very high resolution images sensed from Ikonos and QuickBird
satellite platform and dated 2000 and 2005 respectively. The urban
change analysis, carried out in the GIS after digitalization of the maps
and panchromatic satellite images after orthorectication, highlighted
a net balance of 1027 buildings lost from 1965 to 2005. Older ofcial
estimates about losses caused by subsidence phenomena reported a
loss of 2300 apartments up to the year 1990 and other 2000
apartments irremediably damaged with 15 000 people forced to
move into the outskirts of the city (Ibrelji et al., 2007). The remaining
buildings are those considered as exposed and currently threatened
by the mentioned hazard factors and will be considered in the
vulnerabilityexposure analysis. In particular, a building density factor
has been calculated by means of the same procedure used in the
previous analysis where intensity classes were created. In Fig. 7 maps
reporting the building density (expressed in meters of walls per
hectare) and the derived intensity classes are shown. The map of Fig. 7
could be considered as inclusive of the vulnerability and exposure

Fig. 7. Intensity classes for vulnerability in the city of Tuzla. Classes are grouped with respect to the building density (m/ha) by the intervals 0.041.18 (class 1); 1.192.70 (class 2);
2.714.53 (class 3); 4.546.67 (class 4); 6.6811.11 (class 5). Classes intervals are established on the basis of the natural break principle.

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F. Mancini et al. / Engineering Geology 109 (2009) 170182

components where V is equal to 1 and E is proportional to the density

of goods.
7. Total risk analysis
The Varnes's formula allows the estimation of total risk (R) relating
single hazards (with their weights) with the vulnerability (V) and
exposure (E) components. The latter has to be intended as the presence
of elements at risk (buildings) in the subsiding area. With reference to
the discussed hazards, the risk formula could be expressed as

R=

4
X

Hi wi  E  V

unexpected high classes are encountered in the north-western part,

corresponding to that portion of the city where dry mining activities
were carried out since the beginning of the last century and
completely dismissed before the Balkans' War. Cavities and abandoned galleries are now lled as a consequence of rising in the
piezometric level and the abandoned mine area results as one of the
threatened areas even if not directly involved in the ground
deformation phenomenon. It must be also noted that the underground circulation of fresh water is currently causing new phenomena
of salt dissolution and new collapses could happen even where salt
exploitation was not carried out in an intensive manner.
8. Conclusions

where R is computed for each pixel with spacing of 50 50 m2, i = 1

4 represents the factors included in the analysis, and w is the weight
associated to hazards. Components E and V are uniquely dened. The
resulting formula has been easily implemented in the GIS environment
by a map algebra tool for data manipulation. Statistical data analysis
should also be performed to attribute a level of accuracy to the R
component. Unfortunately, errors for single factors are difcult to be
modelled and the analysis with uncertain data still represents an open
problem. Nevertheless, the very dense data available over the study
area and the rigorous methodologies adopted in the data gathering
procedures assign a high degree of reliability to results. Finally, the risk
maps in Fig. 8 show the most threatened areas by the sum of acting
hazard factors, where a particular care concerning the urban planning
actions must be posed by planners and local administrators.
Maps of Fig. 8 classify the total risk into ve intensity classes from
low to severe. As can be seen in the gure, the areas most prone to risk
are those located in the sinking area (not very surprisingly) but

The paper explored a range of opportunities offered by the tools of

the Geomatics Engineering and Geographical Information Systems in
the risk analysis of an area threatened by hazard factors related to the
intense exploitation of salt deposits beneath the city of Tuzla. Data
collected by GPS surveys, piezometric recording and provided by the
curvature analysis were used to assess factors affecting the portion of
the city where sinking phenomena reached 12 m as detected from the
historical topographical dataset. The combination with vulnerability
nally provided the total risk map, able to detect sectors more prone
to damages and economical losses. The geographical analysis was
supported by the GIS environment, facilitating the manipulation of the
georeferenced dataset and the production of maps and reports useful
in the local policies of government, urban planning and management
of issues related to possible risks. The risk map could represent a
starting point in the denition of mitigation interventions. As
discussed in this paper, the water table rise could be considered the
major hazard and perseverance in the fracture monitoring, avoiding
inltration of fresh water and new salt dissolution, is an imperative.

Fig. 8. Total risk map with ve severity classes.

F. Mancini et al. / Engineering Geology 109 (2009) 170182

The highlighted reduction of subsidence rates, as detected from GPS

observations, is coherent with the gradually ceasing in salt mining
activities.
Unfortunately, the trend in water table rise produced by the
ceasing of the intense salt exploitation induced the local government
to recently impose an additional brine pumping in order to prevent
the submersion of the most collapsed area. Therefore, further salt
dissolution followed by subsidence increase is likely to happen and
the vicious circle appears to be inevitable.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the nancial support of Regione
Emilia Romagna and Provincia di Ravenna of the project Realizzazione a Tuzla (Bosnia and Erzegovina) di un programma di assistenza
tecnica per la gestione di un sistema territoriale nalizzato al controllo
e monitoraggio dei problemi di subsidenza legati allo sfruttamento dei
sottostanti depositi di salgemma (Coordinator: Prof. Giovanni Gabbianelli) that started the project. The research is now sponsored by
NATO's Public Diplomacy Division in the framework of Science for
Peace. Municipality of Tuzla (D.O.O. Mining Institute of Tuzla)
provided the historical series of the data. Amer Dzindo, Rusmir
Salihovic, Toni Nikolic, Mauro Altizio, Mario Laghi and Andrea Minchio
are particularly thanked for the valuable support during the GPS
surveys. Fig. 1 of this paper was produced using the GMT graphics
package (Wessel and Smith, 1998).
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