HEADLINE = Why Russias Su-35 must re-enter the Malaysian dogfight

STRAP = Malaysia wants to save money by leasing Swedens Gripen jet fighter,
but Russian Sukhois offer better value, more firepower and geopolitical spinoffs
that Sweden cant match.

The Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF) is shopping for new fighter aircraft to
replace its fleet of 12 MiG-29s acquired in 1995, but with its oil revenues taking a
hit Kuala Lumpur is unable to rustle up the cash.
In 2014, instead of buying outright, Malaysia took the decision to lease 36 to 40
new jets. Swedens Gripen is now the front runner, with Dassault and Sukhoi
pulling back. The Swedes have also promised to sweeten the deal by throwing in
a couple of airborne early warning and control aircraft into the package.
The advantage of leasing is that because Malaysia wont own the Gripens, the
RMAF wont be stuck with ageing aircraft in, say, 15 years time. The Swedes will
take their jets back after the end of the lease agreement, and might resell them
to some cash-poor country.
The disadvantages, however, outweigh this so-called advantage. Depending on
operating conditions and contract clauses, leasing can be as costly as full
ownership. While the RMAF will have a set of shiny new planes at zero or low
upfront costs, Malaysia will ultimately have to pay for fuel, maintenance, parts
and insurance. The final bill could include depreciation costs as well.
In this backdrop, Russias proven Su-30 Flanker (of which Malaysia flies the MKK
version) and the even more advanced Su-35 (which neighbouring Indonesia has
ordered) offer more bang for the buck. The Su-35s fuel consumption of 0.19 km
per litre, while carrying a payload double that of the Gripen, is clearly impressive.
Plus its low fuel consumption even at speeds faster than the speed of sound is a
key advantage because endurance can be the difference between winning a
dogfight or exiting it.
The Su-30 also fares well in the medium fuel efficiency category at 0.58 km per
litre. It is also an example of a heavy aircraft with extremely long legs. Note that
both Russian jets are heavy fighters that are considerably larger than the
Grippen so their superior fuel efficiency is indeed remarkable.
Lets not forget that we are dealing with warplanes, not cars, here. Leasing could
translate into restrictions on the operations of the aircraft. For instance, would
Malaysia be able to base the aircraft where it wants? Will leasing restrict
geographic regions to which the planes can fly?
Frost & Sullivan Asia-Pacific consultant, aerospace and defence, Ravikumar
Madavaram told the media about the implication for the RMAF: Saab would be
checking on its fighters in Malaysia from time to time to see how and what they
are being used for, but these inspections could compromise Malaysian defence
autonomy.

And finally, like gravity, what goes up must return to base. When the lease
expires, the RMAF must return the aircraft in a pre-agreed condition. And since
fighter aircraft are flown aggressively unlike passenger airliners the wear and
tear is likely to be considerable. According to aviation leasing company Conklin &
de Decker, (https://www.conklindd.com/t-leaseprosandcons.aspx) You will likely
pay a penalty for high utilization, or for engines that are not on a guaranteed
maintenance program, and wear and tear beyond that accepted in the lease.
When you own it, you can fly it as much as you need as you, the owner, accept
the residual value risks.
Combat comparison
There is no comparison. The Sukhoi is the wolf of the skies, whereas the Grippen
is the poor mans fighter. Grippen is better suited for the less threatening and
relatively peaceful skies of South America than the increasingly turbulent skies of
the Asia-Pacific.
Malaysias fighter choice is also influenced by its geography. Since the country is
bordered by seas, a twin-engine fighter is the ideal requirement. This is because
losing an engine over sea usually spells serious trouble for single-engine aircraft.
This requirement meant that in the first round the Grippen got the boot. That it
has bounced back is solely due to the cost factor. This is something that the
Malaysians will have to decide whether national security should take a back
seat to costs.
Both the Su-35 and the Su-30 will offer the RMAF a bunch of benefits that it wont
get with the Gripen. Sweden is a political lightweight and will offer Malaysia little
in terms of international support in global and trade forums. Only Russia can do
this.
In pure military terms, the Sukhois dominate the skies in a way the Gripen never
can. The key to this dominance is super-manoeuvrability, which is the defining
characteristic of the Flanker family. Aviation expert Bill Sweetman explains how
this can decide the outcome of an air battle: Unpredictable flight paths
challenge the guidance algorithms of any missile system. Basically, by making
the missile work harder the Flanker effectively reduces its range.
At the same time super-manoeuvrability boosts the Flankers own missiles.
Rapid nose-pointing can permit a short-range missile launch with a greater kill
probability, writes Sweetman.
One of the little known facts about the Flanker is that its super-manoeuvrability
reduces its visibility on radar screens. Mikhail Simonov, the aircrafts legendary
designer, explains: Super-manoeuvrability should be looked at as a system of
manoeuvres for close aerial combat. Once the pilot receives a signal that his
plane is being tracked by enemy radar, the first thing he needs to do is to go
vertical. While gaining altitude and losing speed the aircraft starts to disappear
from the screens of radars that use the Doppler effect.

However, the opponent is no fool either and will counter by pitching his aircraft
upward as well. By that time our plane is going vertical and its speed approaches
zero. But all Doppler radars can recognise only a moving target. If the aircraft
speed is zero or simply low enough to prevent the enemy radar from calculating
the Doppler component, for the enemy our aircraft will disappear. He may still be
able to track us visually, but he will not be able to launch a radar-guided missile
(either active or semi-active), simply because the missiles seeker would not
pick-up the target.
Defense Industry Daily (DID) agrees the Su-30 family has stealthy
characteristics. There is an unspecified amount of reduced reflectance for the
Su-35 in the X-band, which is a popular choice for modern radars. Further
improvements were made during testing by adding radar-absorbent materials,
and removing or modifying protruding sensors that create radar reflection
points.
While the Flankers manoeuvrability is stupendous, its long range also comes into
play in aerial combat. This allows it to perform repeated probes and U-turns a
Cold War Russian tactic that can leave its opponent disoriented, exhausted and
vulnerable in a dogfight.
DID points out that the Su-35s NIIP Tikhomirov Irbis-E passive phased-array can
reportedly detect and tracks up to 30 air targets, simultaneously engaging up to
eight. It can also reportedly detect, choose and track up to four ground targets,
and engage two. Detection ranges of over 400 km have been reported for
airborne targets.
Plus, the Su-35s service life is 6,000 flight hours, with a planned operational life
of 30 years. That should give Malaysia plenty of time to prepare for the fifth
generation fighter era.
The Su-27 and its subsequent versions such as the Su-30, Su-34 and Su-35 mark
a historic shift in air-power from the United States to Russia and the countries
that use Russian defence technology. Whether in India, China, Indonesia,
Venezuela or Malaysia, the Flankers have degraded the offensive and defensive
capabilities of their western and western-backed opponents.
The RMAF is currently satisfied with its Su-30 MKK jets. Additional jets can be
procured easily and at a bargain. No additional infrastructure needs to be
imported for inducting more Su-30s. This wont be the case with the Gripens as
entire support systems will need to be purchased as well. Plus, it will take years
of training before Malaysian pilots can master these jets.
Currently, the Indian Air Force offers support, advice and training for the RMAF
because the Indians own the same Sukhoi jets. Having such support close by in
Asia is handy. With the Gripen, there wont be that comfort factor.
=============

SUBHEAD = HOW THEY STACK UP

Cost (US$ million)
Su-35 - 65
Su-30 - $53
Gripen - 61
Rafale - 68
Typhoon -70
F/A-18 - 67

Fuel Economy (km per litre)

Su-35 - 0.19
Su-30 - 0.58
Gripen - 1.06
Rafale - 0.27
Typhoon - 0.68
F/A-18 - 0.17

Maximum Payload (kg)

Su-35 - 15,500
Su-30 - 7983
Gripen - 5300
Rafale - 6500
Typhoon - 6486
F/A-18 - 8051

Combat Radius (km)

Su-35 - 1500
Su-30 - 1296

Gripen - 800
Rafale - 925
Typhoon - 1389
F/A-18 - 537