US mobile commerce revenues, with

forecasts to 2015
Coda Research Consultancy

Coda. Coda Research Consultancy

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 Coda. Coda Research Consultancy

US mobile commerce revenues, with

forecasts to 2015

Steve Smith PhD

Research Director

Coda Research Consultancy

Released May 28, 2010

For more information about this product, please email steve.smith@codarc.co.uk, or call
+44 (0)7779 610004

European office:
Coda Research Consultancy Ltd
95 Wodeland Avenue
Guildford
Surrey
GU2 4LD
England

© Coda Research Consultancy Ltd, 2010

All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, or stored in any retrieval system of any
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and Patents Act 1988 or the Copyright and Rights in Databases Regulations 1999.

This report draws upon research and analysis conducted by Coda Research Consultancy. Use of this report by any third party for whatever
purpose should not, and does not, absolve such third party from using due diligence in verifying the report’s contents. Any use which a third party
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this document. Coda Research Consultancy does not make investment recommendations, in this report or otherwise, and nothing in this report
should be interpreted as an opinion by Coda Research Consultancy either on market forecasts or on the prospects of specific companies.

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Introduction

Document at a glance:
Type – US market forecast and assessment report, to 2015
Printed page length – 29
Number of forecasts – 9
Number of other figures – 12

We forecast that mobile internet users via handsets in the US will rise to 158m in 2015, and
smartphone owners will rise to 194m in the same year. In view of this, prospects for revenues from
mobile commerce are considerable, and we predict they will increase by a compound annual growth
rate of +65% to 2015.

This 30 page report examines mobile commerce via handsets in the US to 2015, and is divided into
two sections. The first section provides analysis and forecasts for mobile commerce revenues up to
2015. The second section is given over to an analysis of the following drivers to mobile commerce:

 Smartphone subscribers (with forecast to 2015)

 3G subscribers (with forecast to 2015)
 Mobile internet users (with forecast to 2015)
 Applications
 Location based services and mobile commerce
 Mobile coupons and payments
 Social networking
 Music

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Table of contents, forecasts and figures
Contents
Companies mentioned in this report ......................5
Methodology...........................................................6
Commerce via mobile handsets..............................7
Why mobile commerce will thrive ............................. 7
Opportunities .......................................................... 8
Revenue forecasts to 2015 ....................................... 8
Drivers to mobile commerce revenues .................10
Smartphones ..........................................................10
Smartphone subscriber forecast to 2015 ...........10
3G+ mobile handset subscriber forecast to 2015 ......11
4G roll out..............................................................12
4G roll out across carriers ................................12
Mobile internet usage..............................................14
Mobile internet user forecast to 2015................15
Mobile internet user split: smartphones vs feature
phones forecast to 2015.............................15
Mobile internet users via smartphones forecast to
2015 .........................................................16
Mobile shopping .....................................................16
Mobile applications .................................................17
Online shopping applications ............................18
Mobile search applications................................18
Mobile payment applications.............................18
Location based services...........................................18
Mobile coupons ......................................................20
Mobile payments ....................................................20
Paid for applications................................................21
Application stores ............................................21
Apple Application genres ..................................21
Paid vs free applications...................................22
Paid game applications ....................................23
Social networking ...................................................24
Use of mobile handsets for social networking ....24
Social networking user forecast to 2015 ............25
Social networking behavior across mobile handsets
................................................................25
Virtual goods ...................................................26
Music .....................................................................26
Bibliography .........................................................28
About Coda Research Consultancy .......................29
Forecasts
Forecast 1. eCommerce revenues via handsets, 2009-
2015 ................................................................... 8
Forecast 2. Proportions of eCommerce revenues
created by handset subscriber, 2009-2015............. 9
Forecast 3. eCommerce revenues created per handset
subscriber, 2009-2015.......................................... 9
Forecast 4. Smartphone subscribers, 2009-2015........... 11
Forecast 5. Smartphone subscribers as share of all
mobile handset subscribers, 2009-2015 ............... 11
Forecast 6. 3G+ mobile handset subscribers, 2009-
2015 ................................................................. 12
Forecast 7. Mobile internet users via mobile handsets,
2009-2015 ......................................................... 15
Forecast 8. Mobile internet users via smartphones,
2009-2015 ......................................................... 16
Forecast 9. People accessing social networking.
Smartphones vs feature phones, 2009-2015 ........ 25
Figures
Figure 1. Typical throughout speeds, comparing 3G
with LTE ............................................................ 12
Figure 2. Sprint WiMax coverage map by city ............... 13
Figure 3. Mobile internet user split: smartphone users
vs feature phone users ....................................... 16
Figure 4. People who have shopped or researched
using their mobiles, by age ................................. 17
Figure 5. People who have ever purchased something
via their mobile handsets.................................... 17
Figure 6. Location based usage among smartphone
owners, by smartphone brand............................. 19
Figure 7. Top ten Apple App Store application genres ... 21
Figure 8. Average application downloads per month:
iPhone vs Android vs Palm users ......................... 22
Figure 9. Free vs paid applications, by app store .......... 23
Figure 10. Percentage of users who purchase at least
one application per month, iPhone vs Android vs
Palm users......................................................... 23
Figure 11. Average weekly playing time – iPhone vs
Nintendo DS vs Sony PSP users........................... 24
Figure 12. Social networking users accessing
Facebook, MySpace and Twitter, 2009 vs 2010 .... 24
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Companies mentioned in this report

ABI, 18, 29 Morgan Stanley, 15, 22, 25, 27, 29

AdMob, 21, 29 MySpace, 25
Amazon, 8 Nielsen, 14, 29
Apple, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27 Nokia, 22, 23
AT&T, 14 Palm, 19, 22, 23, 24, 26
CFI Group, 19 PayPal, 21
Clearwire, 13 Priceline.com, 21
Compete, 18, 20, 26, 29 Quattro Wireless, 20
comScore, 14, 19, 25, 29 Rhapsody, 28
Distimo, 23, 24, 29 RIM, 18, 19, 22, 23, 24, 26
eBay, 8 Spotify, 28
eMarketer, 29 Sprint, 13
Facebook, 8, 22, 25, 26 Starbucks, 20
Fandango, 22 Target, 20
Federal Communications Commission, 14, 29 T-Mobile, 14
Federal Trade Commission, 21 Trinity Mobile, 22, 29
Foursquare, 19 Twitter, 25, 26
Gartner, 18, 21, 29 US Census Bureau, 8
Google, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 26, 29 Verizon, 13, 14, 28
Microsoft, 22, 23, 24 Yellow Pages, 19
MobileCoupons.com, 20 Yowza!, 20
MobiQpons, 8

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About Coda Research Consultancy

Coda Research Consultancy specializes in providing critical insight into market developments and
behavior around new media, technologies and services in order to help IT and media professionals,
business executives, and investors make fact-based decisions around strategy, service provision and
product development.

Coda employs a variety of rigorous quantitative and qualitative research procedures. It draws upon a
range of disciplines, and collaborates with top commercial and academic organizations.

Coda Research Consultancy is led by Dr Steve Smith, an internationally acknowledged research

specialist with extensive experience consulting for media and technology companies globally.

To find out more, visit www.codarc.co.uk, or contact us below:

European office
95 Wodeland Avenue
Guildford
Surrey
GU2 4LD
England
Tel: +44(0)7779 610004
Email: steve.smith@codarc.co.uk

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