11 Nov 2013

ASIA FOREX WEEKLY

Asia Currency Digest
Market Trend for Last Week

Market Trend for this week

Asian currencies weakened due to strong USD as a result of positive Asian currencies are expected to be weak with rising observations of
US economic data
US QE tapering

Asian stock markets weakened due to selling for position

adjustments before major economic events in Europe, US and
China in the later half of last week. In addition to the announcement
of unexpected ECB interest rate cut on the 7th, the better than
expected outcome of US GDP & employment data announced on
the 7th & 8th led to the rise in USD. As a result, Asian currencies
weakened against USD in the later half of last week.

With positive outcome of the US economic data announced last

week, rising observations towards an early start of QE tapering which
has been strongly foreseen to delay are predicted. This will be
unfavorable to Asian currencies.
However, the overall positive outcome of China's major economic
data is likely to provide support to Asian stock markets and the fall in
Asian currencies are expected to be limited. The 3rd plenary meeting
in China will end on the 12th and focus will be on the announcement
of the contents regarding reforms in the financial field and
liberalization.

Transition of Asia Currencies against USD& Asian Stocks

1
CCY

Start

CNY
HKD
TWD
SGD
MYR
IDR
THB
AUD
KRW
INR
PHP
VND
JPY

6.1035
7.7524
29.435
1.2437
3.1797
11,350
31.23
0.9429
1,062.26
61.93
43.26
21,095
98.72

High

Last week Forex Market

Low

6.1157
7.7526
29.465
1.2485
3.1923
11,423
31.52
0.9543
1,064.95
62.75
43.38
21,115
99.41

6.0864
7.7515
29.388
1.2406
3.1696
11,334
31.18
0.9353
1,059.68
61.61
43.19
20,645
97.62

Closed

Closed(/Yen)

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

Asian stock markets fluctuation

0.1
0.1
0.0

0.0

0.5

-4.2

Dollar Index

-1.4

0.3

0.0

oil exchange

84.0

(USD)
16,000

(USD)
115.0

100.50

82.8

15,750

110.0

99.00

81.6

15,500

105.0

97.50

80.4

15,250

100.0

96.00

79.2

15,000

95.0

78.0

14,750

9/1

9/16 10/1 10/16 10/31

USD/JPYL

USD IndexR3

9/1

9/16 10/1 10/16 10/31

DJL

WTIR

90.0

vs previous week

-43.43
-505.40
-158.59
-23.95
-5.93
+44.13
-24.05
-12.16
-54.55
-530.66
-230.20
+1.53
-114.77

106.6

3,700

103.6

3,600

100.6

3,500

97.6

3,400
9/1

9/16 10/1 10/16 10/31

3,300

SMBC Asian currencies indexL1

S&P Asia 50R2

US stock

2,106.13
22,744.39
8,229.59
3,177.25
1,804.48
4,476.72
1,405.03
5,394.38
1,984.87
20,666.15
6,355.18
498.61
14,086.80

3,800

1.4

(\)
102.00

94.50

1.0

Closed

109.6

94.6

Previous Week vs Last Week

Base on closing price)

Previous Week vs Last Week

Rate as at TKY time 5pm. But IDRKRWVND is base on local closing

-2.8

SHCOMPCN
HSIHK
TSECTW
STI SG
KLSE MY
JCIID
SETTH
ASXAU
KOSPIKR
SENSEX IN
PSEiPH
VNIVN
Nikkei 225JP

JCIID
VNIVN
-0.2
ASXAU
-0.3
KLSEMY
-0.7
STISG
-1.7
SETTH
-1.9
TSECTW
-2.0
SHCOMPCN
-2.2
HSIHK
-2.5
SENSEXIN
-2.7
KOSPIKR
PSEiPH-3.5

Last week Forex Market

Stock Market

Forecast RangeUSD

6.0750-6.1050
6.0908
16.26
7.7500-7.7560
7.7517
12.77
29.300-29.600
29.462
3.3610
1.2400-1.2600
1.2466
79.40
3.1600-3.2400
3.1794
30.87
11,000-11,800
11,413
0.0087
31.20-31.55
31.48
3.1458
0.9300-0.9550
0.9385
92.93
1,060-1,075
1,064.90
0.0929
61.80-63.00
62.48
1.56
43.00-43.50
43.19
2.27
21,050-21,150
21,100
0.0047
98.20-99.80
99.05
Refer to the below for comments on various currencies

Asian currencies rate fluctuation(vs USD)

CNY
PHP
HKD
-0.0
VND
-0.1
TWD
SGD
-0.1
-0.2
AUD
KRW
-0.4
-0.5
MYR
THB
-0.6
IDR
-1.0
INR -1.2

This week Forex Market

Monetary Interest Rates

Previous
interest rate change(%

China
Hongkong
Taiwan
Singapore
Malaysia
Indonesia
Thailand
Australia
Korea
India
Philippines
Vietnam

3.25
1.50
1.875
3.00
7.25
2.50
2.50
2.50
7.50
3.50
8.00

Previous

Next

MPC Date

MPC Date

3.00
2012/7/5
0.50 2008/12/31
1.875
9/26
12/19
No monetary policy
3.00
11/7
2014/1/29
7.25
10/8
11/12
2.50
10/16
11/27
2.50
11/5
12/3
2.50
10/10
11/14
7.75
10/29
12/18
3.50
10/24
12/12
9.00 2010/11/5
-

Create by SMBC via various sources

1SMBC Asian currencies indexAsian currencies price index excluding calculation of by SMBC < 8 main Asian currenciesTWDSGDMYRIDRTHBKRWINRPHP>
2S&P 50Main stock price indexes of the 4 Asia markets officially announced by S&PHKKRSGTW
Source :REUTERSBloomberg
3USD IndexUSD overall price index officially announced by US ICEIntercontinental Exchange
This document is for information purposes only and for private circulation. It does not constitute any offer, recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any hedging, trading or
investment strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in rates or process or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown in any illustration. The
information herein is believed by SMBC to be reliable but SMBC makes no representation as to, and accepts no liability in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information or for any opinion expressed
herein. None of the information and opinions contained herein are intended to form the basis for any decision and you are advised not to make any decisions based on such information or opinions without independent
consultation with your tax, legal, accounting, credit, trading, and regulatory experts. Neither the information nor the opinions herein constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.

Asia Report Various Asian countries events & Information

Information
Economy Index & Event for last week
Economy Index & Event for this week
TWOct CPI+0.64%(Y/Y)(Pre:+0.84%(Y/Y))
11/11/2013 MYSep Industrial OutputPre:+2.3%(Y/Y)
5/11/2013
SGOct PMI51.2(Pre: 50.5
13/11/2013 ID 3Q Current AccountPre: US$9,848Mio
6/11/2013 ID 3QGDP+5.62%(Y/Y)(Pre:+5.83%(Y/Y))
HK3QGDPPre:+3.3%(Y/Y)
15/11/2013 SGSep Retail SalesPre:7.8%(Y/Y)
7/11/2013 TWOct Trade BalanceUS$+3.52Bio (Pre: +US$2.35Bio)
CNOct Trade Balance+US$31.10Bio(Pre:+US$15.21Bio
MY3QGDPPre:+4.3%(Y/Y)
8/11/2013
MYSep Trade Balance MYR +8.66Bio (Pre: MYR +7.11Bio)
CNOct CPI+3.2%(Y/Y)(Pre:+3.1%(Y/Y))
CNOct PPI 1.5%(Y/Y)(Pre:1.3%(Y/Y))
9/11/2013
CNOct Industrial Output+10.3(Y/Y)(Pre:+10.2%(Y/Y))
CNOct Retail Sales+13.3%(Y/Y)(Pre:+13.3%Y/Y))

Comments on market movement, major input and market forecast of various currencies by TKY and local dealers and sales person.
symbols indicate factors of market movements under Last Week's Market & Reasons for Fluctuation Factor for buying local currency Factor for selling local currency

Chinese Yuan(CNY)
TMD
TMDTokyo

Hongkong Dollar(HKD)
TMD(HKG) Noguchi

Last Week's Market & Reasons for Fluctuation

CNY was strong during the week. Although actual CNY
rate opened in the low of 6.10 range, it rose to the high
of 6.08 range at a point in time when the central parity
rate was set at a strong CNY by PBOC. Oct trade
balance was a surplus much better than expected.
This week's topics
It is predicted that CNY will continue to move around 1
USD= 6.10 Yuan. Caution on the 11/9-12 Third Plenary
meeting. Various reports, the level of central parity rate
set by PBOC and the movement of stock prices will
also be focused on.

(USD/CNY
6.130

(Point
2,350

Neutral Stance

Taiwan Dollar(TWD)
Taipei Branch Amano

Last Week's Market & Reasons for Fluctuation

Despite the unexpected ECB interest rate cut and the
upward swing of US employment data against
expectation, the influence on HKD remained limited
and moved within its narrow range in the low of 7.75
range against USD.
This week's topics
There is a lack of HK domestic factors this week.
Focus is likely to be on China's Third Plenary meeting
but HKD will probably continue to struggle in its high
price range.

(USD/HKD)
7.758

Create by SMBC via various sources

(Point)
24,000

Last Week's Market & Reasons for Fluctuation

Although funds inflow into the TW stock markets by
foreign investors was continuing, buying and selling of
TWD were mixed before the announcement of US
employment data and TWD moved within its range.
This week's topics
Funds inflow into the TW stock markets by foreign
investors is continuing. On the other hand, USD was
being bought back due to the positive US employment
data announced last week.TWD is predicted to move
within its range.

(USD/TWD)
30.1

(Point)
8,550

6.119

2,270

7.756

23,400

29.9

8,400

6.108

2,190

7.755

22,800

29.8

8,250

6.097

2,110

7.753

22,200

29.6

8,100

6.086

2,030

7.752

21,600

29.5

7,950

1,950

7.750

21,000

29.3

6.075

9/1

9/16 10/1 10/16 10/31

CNYL

9/1

SHCOMPR

9/16 10/1 10/16 10/31

HKDL

Singapore Dollar(SGD)
ASG
ASGSingapore
Singapore Tada

Malaysia Ringgit(MYR)
TMD
TMDTokyo
Tokyo

Last Week's Market & Reasons for Fluctuation

Although SGD fell to mid 1.24 range at a point in time
due to ECB's interest rate cut, it generally moved in the
low of 1.24 range. It later weakened due to USD buying
as a result of the better than expected US employment
data at the end of the week and SGD closed in the high
of 1.24 range.
This week's topics
SGD is predicted to be weak due to the continuously
firm USD with the influence of US employment data.

(Point)
3,300

(USD/SGD)
1.285

HSIR

9/1

9/16

10/1 10/16 10/31

TWDL

7,800

TSECR

Indonesia Rupiah(IDR)
TMD
TMDTokyo
Tokyo

Last Week's Market & Reasons for Fluctuation

MYR weakened against USD. After approaching the
high of 3.16 range, MYR fell gradually against USD
and closed in high of 3.17 range. MY monetary
interest rate was kept unchanged at 3.00% according
to market expectation(for 15 times).
This week's topics
Events such as MY budget bill announcement and
monetary interest rate announcement have finished
and focus will be on external factors such as US
economic data.

Last Week's Market & Reasons for Fluctuation

IDR opened in the low of 11300 range against USD.
Amid few transactions at month start, IDR was sold
gradually to the low of 11400 range against USD.
3Q GDP +5.62% (Q/Q)(For: 5.60%)
This week's topics
B.I. governors meeting will be held on the 12th. IDR
selling trend is continuing and there is the possibility of
monetary policy rate hikes.

(USD/MYR)
3.40

(USD/IDR)
12,000

(Point)
1,860

(Point)
4,900

1.274

3,230

3.34

1,820

11,680

4,700

1.263

3,160

3.28

1,780

11,360

4,500

1.252

3,090

3.22

1,740

11,040

4,300

1.241

3,020

3.16

1,700

10,720

4,100

2,950

3.10

1,660

10,400

1.230

9/1

9/16 10/1 10/16 10/31

SGDL

STR

9/1

9/16

10/1 10/16 10/31

MYRL

KLSER

9/1

9/16 10/1 10/16 10/31

IDRL

3,900

JCIR

Source :REUTERSBloomberg
This document is for information purposes only and for private circulation. It does not constitute any offer, recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any hedging, trading or
investment strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in rates or process or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown in any illustration. The
information herein is believed by SMBC to be reliable but SMBC makes no representation as to, and accepts no liability in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information or for any opinion expressed
herein. None of the information and opinions contained herein are intended to form the basis for any decision and you are advised not to make any decisions based on such information or opinions without independent
consultation with your tax, legal, accounting, credit, trading, and regulatory experts. Neither the information nor the opinions herein constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.

Asia Report Various Asian countries events & Information

Information
Economy Index & Event for last week

Economy Index & Event for this week

4/11/2013 AUSep Retail Sales+0.8%(M/M)(Pre:+0.5%(M/M)

12/11/2013

5/11/2013 PHOct CPI+2.9%(Y/Y)(Pre:+2.7%(Y/Y))

6/11/2013 AUSep Trade BalanceAU$284Mio (Pre: AU$693Mio)

13/11/2013

7/11/2013 AUOct Unemployment Rate5.7%(Pre: 5.7%)

15/11/2013

INOct CPIPre:+9.84%(Y/Y)
INSep Industrial OutputPre:+0.6%(Y/Y)
KROct Unemployment RatePre: 3.0%
INOct WPI Pre:+6.46%(Y/Y)
PHOverseas RepatriationPre: +US$1,918Mio

Comments on market movement, major input and market forecast of various currencies by TKY and local dealers and sales person.
symbols indicate factors of market movements under Last Week's Market & Reasons for Fluctuation Factor for buying local currency Factor for selling local currency

Thai Baht(THB)
ASGBangkok
ASG
BangkokHasegawa

(USD/THB)
33.0

(Point)
1,550

Last Week's Market & Reasons for Fluctuation

AUD rose during the first half of the week due to
positive AU retail sales but plunged to high of 0.93
range due to weakening of AU employment data and
positive US employment data.
This week's topics
There is a lack of AU domestic factors this week and
contents of the Third Plenary meeting of China and
FRB Chairman Bernankes speech are expected to
foresee tensions in the markets.

(AUD/USD)
0.980

Neutral Stance

Korean Won(KRW)
TMD
TMDTokyo
Tokyo

Australia Dollar(AUD)
Sydney Branch Okamoto

Last Week's Market & Reasons for Fluctuation

Demonstrations against the amnesty bill spread in
central Bangkok and THB was sold due to the political
confusion.
Oct Consumer Confidence Index 76.6 (Pre: 77.9)
Influences were political confusion and the slowdown
in exports and domestic demand.
This week's topics
The opposition Democrat party insists on the
continuation of their demonstrations though the Thai
upper house is expected to reject the amnesty bill.The
government will focus on restoring peace.

Create by SMBC via various sources

(Point)
5,450

Last Week's Market & Reasons for Fluctuation

KRW plunged to 1,065 KRW against USD due to the
fall in KRW stock markets to below 2,000 points with
overseas selling and the comparative strengthening of
the USD resulting from ECB interest rate cut.
This week's topics
KRW is predicted to fall gradually due to USD buying
flow as a result of positive US economic data last
week. The extent of the fall will widen if stock markets
continue to weaken.

(USD/KRW)
1,130

(Point)
2,075

32.5

1,490

0.960

5,360

1,114

2,025

32.0

1,430

0.940

5,270

1,098

1,975

31.5

1,370

0.920

5,180

1,082

1,925

31.0

1,310

0.900

5,090

1,066

1,875

1,250

0.880

5,000

1,050

30.5

9/1

9/16

10/1 10/16 10/31

THBL

9/1

9/16 10/1 10/16 10/31

SETR

AUDL

India Rupee (INR)

ASGSingapore
ASG
Singapore Shinohara
Last Week's Market & Reasons for Fluctuation
INR plunged to the low level against USD in 6 weeks.
It opened in the high of 61 range against USD at the
start of the week but USD strengthened against Asian
currencies due to continuous announcement of stable
US economic data and INR fell to the high of 62
range.
This week's topics
Although IN CPI is scheduled to be announced on the
12th and IN WPI on the 15th this week, the USD/INR
market is likely to continue to be led by USD
movement.

(Point)
21,400

(USD/INR)
70.0

9/1

9/16 10/1 10/16 10/31

KRWL

ASXR

1,825

KOSPIR

Vietnam Dong(VND)
TMD
TMDTokyo
Tokyo

Philippines Peso(PHP)
TMD
TMDTokyo
Tokyo
Last Week's Market & Reasons for Fluctuation
PH stock markets weakened and fell for 6
consecutive days before upcoming major economic
events in Europe, US and China at the end of the
week. On the other hand, PHP saw minimal
movement and moved in its narrow range.
This week's topics
PH stock markets will probably weaken due to some
reports of death toll nearing 10,000 people due to the
typhoon last weekend. PHP is also predicted to be
weak against USD due to the weak PH stock markets.

Last Week's Market & Reasons for Fluctuation

VN stock markets rose with the announcement by the
government of a foreseen acceleration in the pace of
economic growth for Oct to Dec but fell in the later half
of the week due to profit-taking selling. On the other
hand, VND saw no major price movement during the
week.
This week's topics
VND is predicted to weaken due to USD buying as a
result of strong US employment data.

(USD/PHP)
45.0

(USD/VND
21,200

(Point)
7,000

(Point)
520

68.0

20,700

44.5

6,700

21,170

509

66.0

20,000

44.0

6,400

21,140

498

19,300

43.5

6,100

21,110

487

62.0

18,600

43.0

5,800

21,080

476

60.0

17,900

42.5

5,500

21,050

64.0

9/1

9/16

10/1 10/16 10/31

INRL

SENSEXR

9/1

9/16

10/1 10/16 10/31

PHPL

PSEiR

9/1

9/16

10/1 10/16 10/31

VNDL

465

VNIR

Source :REUTERSBloomberg

This document is for information purposes only and for private circulation. It does not constitute any offer, recommendation or solicitation to
any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely
future movements in rates or process or any representation that any such future movements will not exceed those shown in any illustration.
The information herein is believed by SMBC to be reliable but SMBC makes no representation as to, and accepts no liability in relation to,
the accuracy or completeness of the information or for any opinion expressed herein. None of the information and opinions contained herein
are intended to form the basis for any decision and you are advised not to make any decisions based on such information or opinions
without independent consultation with your tax, legal, accounting, credit, trading, and regulatory experts. Neither the information nor the
opinions herein constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.