Maybank FX Research

FX Tech Weekly
Currency

Direction

Support/Resistance

Key Data Out This Week

Mon: Fed's Fisher Speaks on Monetary Policy in Sydney, Australia; Factory

Orders (Sep); Fed's Powell Speaks on Monetary Policy in San Francisco
Tue: Fed's Rosengren Speaks on Economy in Boston; ISM Non-Manf.
Composite (Oct);
Wed: Fed's Lacker Speaks on Labor Market in North Carolina; Fed's
Williams to Speak to Reporters in San Francisco;
Thu: Fed's Pianalto Speaks on Housing and Economy in Columbus, Ohio;
Initial Jobless Claims (Nov-02); GDP Annualized (3Q A);
Fri: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct); Unemployment Rate (Oct);

See DXY for key US data.

Mon: EC ECB's Constancio Speaks in Frankfurt; FR PMI Manufacturing

(Oct F); GE PMI Manufacturing (Oct F); EC PMI Manufacturing (Oct F);
Tue: EC ECB's Constancio Speaks in Madrid; EC European Commission
Releases Economic Growth Forecasts; EC ECB's Asmussen Speaks in
Stockholm;
Wed: EC PMI Composite (Oct F); GE Factory Orders (Sep);
Thu: EC ECB Announces Interest Rates (Nov-07); EC ECB Deposit Facility
Rate (Nov-07); EC ECB'S Draghi Holds Press Conference After Rate
Decision;
Mon: TD Securities Inflation (Oct); TD Securities Inflation (Oct); Retail Sales
(Sep); ANZ Job Advertisements (Oct);
Tue: RBA Cash Rate Target (Nov) :
Wed: Trade Balance (Sep);
Thu: Employment Change (Oct); Unemployment Rate (Oct;
Fri: RBA Statement on Monetary Policy;

Dollar
Index

S: 79.95; R: 81.225

AsiaDollar
Index

S: 116.30; R: 116.80

EURUSD

S: 1.3460; R: 1.3660

AUDUSD

S: 0.9410; R: 0.9557

GBPUSD

S: 1.5892; R: 1.6145

USDJPY

S: 97.80; R: 99.40

USDSGD

Mon: PMI Construction (Oct); Halifax House Prices (Oct); Halifax House
Price 3Mths/Year (Oct);
Wed: Industrial Production (Sep); Manufacturing Production (Sep);

Tue: BOJ Governor Kuroda Speaks to Business Leaders in Osaka; BOJ

Governor Kuroda Holds Press Conference in Osaka
Wed: Bank of Japan (October 3-4 meeting) minutes;

S: 1.2345; R: 1.2453

Tue: PMI-mfg (Oct)

USDMYR

S: 3.1380; R:3.1909

Thu: BNM decides on OPR.

Fri: Exports, imports and trade balance (Sep)

USDPHP

S: 42.890; R: 43.530

Tue: CPI (Oct)

USDIDR

S: 10788; R: 11,500

Wed: GDP (3Q)

* Sources: Bloomberg LLP, Maybank FX Research

FX Research
Week Ahead Outlook: Data calendar continues to be busy this week in the US with Oct NFP the key release to watch, along with 3Q GDP and
factory orders amongst others. Depending on how the key US ISM comes out today, the momentum from today could have some effect on the
dollar and UST trajectory in the early part of the week. The USD has managed a fair bit of rally and could be the start of a bullish reversal if data
supports. There are also a few central bank meetings this week including RBA, ECB and BOE. Deflation concerns in the Eurozone raised
expectations of potential easing in upcoming policy meet. Should EU PMI-mfg numbers ( due at the start of the week) turn out too soft, another
round of EUR sell-off could be triggered ahead of the policy announcement leading to a dollar squeeze and possibly some upside to dollar/Asia
FX pairs. The other two central banks are expected to sit on their hands but forward guidance, again, will be closely monitored. With the RBNZ
policy announcement out of the way, we think there should be a continuation of a NZD upside move next week especially if China data remains
positive and with policy tightening risk in 2014 remaining intact after the 31 Oct RBNZ statement, looking into long NZD in near term may be of
interest. In Asia, China releases its Oct trade numbers on Fri and will be taken as a gauge of recovery in the region. BNM is the only central
bank to decide on its monetary policy but most do not expect any action from them . Recent comments suggest that they are still growth centric
despite the subsidy rollback programs. That only implies that external factors are still the major drivers of the MYR swings.
The SGD NEER currently still stubbornly strong at 1.4% above the mid-point as weakness against the dollar, JPY, and RMB are more than
offset by gains against the euro, MYR and IDR. The implied USD/SGD limits are 1.2350 and 1.2845 respectively with the mid-point at 1.2595.
We still expect the USD/SGD to remain low for now with the trade weighted SGD NEER closer to the upper end of the band. This implies the
pair remaining around 1.2350 and 1.2450 but a break beyond 1.2450 from a flurry of strong US data and rise in UST yields could potentially
push the pair towards 1.2550 on dollar strength.
Recommended strategies
USD/JPY: We see opportunity to long USD/JPY for a target of 99.40 and stop loss at 97.80.

Dollar Index - Bullish Divergence has been sighted on the MACD vis--vis the price for a while now and a sustained move beyond the 80.60barrier could be the buy trigger.
AUD/USD Our target level is still some distance away at 1.3460. A sustained move beyond this level will spur more aggressive offers.
USD/JPY Tight gyrations to continue and daily chart shows a slight bullish momentum for the pair. Pair to remain in consolidation above the
97.80.
USD/SGD We look for more range-bound moves within 1.2345-1.2453.
USD/MYR 3.1909 to cap topsides this week and we expect pair to drift lower towards 3.1380.
Dollar Index (DXY), Daily

Dollar index bounced on less-dovish-than-expected FOMC statement on 30 Oct. The index was last sighted at 80.30. 80.65 is a key
target to watch as it lies at the top of the falling wedge that we have been watching and it coincides with the 200-DMA. Bullish Divergence
has been sighted on the MACD vis--vis the price for a while now and a sustained move beyond the 80.60-barrier could be the buy
trigger.

FX Research
EUR/USD, Daily

EUR/USD sold off on soggy inflation numbers on Thu and waffled around 1.3550 in late Asian trade. The pair is gradually picking up
bearish momentum but RSI flags oversold conditions. Our target level is still some distance away at 1.3460. A sustained move beyond
this level will spur more aggressive offers.

AUD/USD, Daily

AUD/USD tested our support level at 0.9458-support and bounced a tad in spite of a dollar surge on 31-Oct. Bias is to the downside
and we have RBA policy meet ahead. Recent dovish comments have pushed the pair lower. The bank is not expected to do much at
this meeting and we suspect expectations of dovish comments are already priced in. Range trades within 0.9410-0.9557 to extend.

FX Research
USD/JPY, Daily

USD/JPY extended sideway trades within the 96.80-98.60 range that we penciled in last week. Tight gyrations to continue and daily
chart shows a slight bullish momentum for the pair. Pair to remain in consolidation above the 97.80.

GBP/USD, Daily

GBP/USD was hardly moved towards the end of the week, last sighted at 1.6035. Momentum is still a tad bearish and the break of
nearby support to expose the next at 1.5892. We see that easily achieved given the ample room for downsides on the RSI. BOE is due

FX Research
to meet and recent comments from the Bank signaled that tightening might not come so soon. That should leave little risks of upsides to
the pair.
USD/SGD, Daily

USD/SGD is still stuck within the band that we have been looking, despite the dollar rally. Upside momentum is deterred by the strong
barrier at 1.2453 and while there could be attempts again at the level, current momentum suggest little impetus for upside. We look for
more range-bound moves within 1.2345-1.2453.

USD/MYR, Daily

USD/MYR gapped up on Fri (1-Nov) morning after the overnight dollar surge, a bounce that was larger than most regional pairs. 3.1909

FX Research
to cap topsides this week and we expect pair to drift lower towards 3.1380. BNM makes policy decision this week and Governor Zeti has
been tightlipped when asked for a probability of a rate hike. Most do not expect a change to the policy rate.

AUD/SGD, Daily

FX Research

AUD/SGD settled into range-trades towards the end of the week, weighed by the AUD weakness and SGD resilience. Last sighted at
1.1775, the cross could remain within 1.1600-1.1838. Risks are to the downside so should the 1.1600-support give way, next level to
watch is 1.1505.

SGD/MYR, Daily

SGD/MYR leaped into the Ichimoku Cloud on MYR weakness and slipped below the base of the cloud again. Last sighted around
2.5520, there is still a lack of momentum on the charts. The trajectory for the week is likely to be sideways within 2.5424-2.5690.

FX Heatmap
7

FX Research

The above heatmap was first introduced in Jan and shows respective currency strength against the rest of its peers in different time zones.
Heatmap is more bearish on the dollar against almost all currencies except for JPY and CAD on the medium term. EUR looks set for more
strength against all other majors but may be outperformed by GBP on the medium term. Similarly, AUD looks bullish only in the short-term but
may pare gains against the EUR, NZD and GBP in a few week. The weekly heatmap favours GBP which is poised to rise above its peers in the
medium term.

One currency stuck out like a sore thumb against the rest and that is the IDR. Outlook is bearish in the near-term as well as in the medium term.
MYR may be the top performer in the near term but it could easily cede its top position to the relentless KRW bulls. North Asian currencies could
continue to remain resilient on the whole, relative to their South Asian counterparts as they are less dependent on primary commodity exports.

Heat Map Legend

Medium Bearish Depreciation Expected
Mildly Bearish Slight Depreciation Expected
Medium Bullish Appreciation Expected
Mildly Bullish Slight Appreciation Expected
Neutral No Directional Bias
Source: Maybank FX Research, Bloomberg

FX Research

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Published by:

Malayan Banking Berhad

(Incorporated in Malaysia)

Saktiandi Supaat

Leslie Tang

Fiona Lim

Head, FX Research

Senior FX Analyst

FX Analyst

saktiandi@maybank.com.sg

leslietang@maybank.com.sg

Fionalim@maybank.com.sg

(+65) 63201379

(+65) 63201378

(+65) 63201374