ISSN 07420463, Journal of Volcanology and Seismology, 2014, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 5468. Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2014.

Original Russian Text A.V. Solomatin, 2014, published in Vulkanologiya i Seismologiya, 2014, No. 1, pp. 6176.

A Study of the Relationship between Volcanic Activity

and Great Earthquakes: The KurilKamchatka Region
A. V. Solomatina, b
a

Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, Far East Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences,
bulvar Piipa 9, PetropavlovskKamchatskii, 683006 Russia
b Vitus Bering State University of Kamchatka,
ul. Pogranichnaya 4, PetropavlovskKamchatskii, 683032 Russia
email: alf55@mail.ru, alf110111@gmail.com
Received November 26, 2012

AbstractWe used the data on the activity of volcanoes in Kamchatka and the North Kuril Islands for the
period from 1840 to early 2013 to identify the most significant cyclic components. The resulting periodicities
were compared with the recurrence spectrum for great (M 7.7) earthquakes in the KurilKamchatka region
for 18412012. We detected 52.854.0, 8.58, and 5.72year cycles, which are common both to seismicity and
to volcanic activity. The first interval is close to the three times the value of the 18.613year lunar rhythm
(55.84 years). The 8.58 and 5.72year periodicities seem to be controlled by solar activity variations and are
the second and third harmonics in the 17.15year cycle. This cycle and its harmonics are used for longterm
prediction of great (M 7.7) earthquakes in the KurilKamchatka region as a whole. It was concluded that
the existing increased hazard of great earthquake occurrence in the KurilKamchatka region will last until
February 2016 (a 40% probability of a great earthquake during that period). In addition, the longperiod
phase of increased seismic hazard will last until 2027 with the probability of great earthquakes being 1.6 times
the longterm average value.
DOI: 10.1134/S0742046314010059

INTRODUCTION

other [Shirokov, 1977, 1978, 2008; Shirokov and Serafi

mova, 2006, 2008; Gusev, 2008, among others].

Volcanism and seismicity are the most spectacular

manifestations of the deepseated energy stored in the
Earth. At the same time, they are elements of a more
general system that includes the processes that occur in
the Earths interior, atmosphere, and outer space. In
view of all this, a multidisciplinary approach offers the
greatest promise.
By now correlative relationships have been deter
mined that connect both of these phenomena to solar
activity, the lunar cycle, variations in the world ocean
level, changes in the Earths rate of angular rotation,
and other phenomena, but the present study relies on
the approach suggested by [Khain and Khalilov, 2008],
an approach that incorporates factors of different ori
gins in their effects on volcanism and seismicity. The
above authors studied the spectral characteristics of vol
canic activity and seismicity by averaging the world
data, without strict reference to the periodicities of any
known processes. The other approach is based on the
hypothesis as to the controlling influence of the latter.
Appropriate examples are furnished by studies in the
relationships between the periodicities of volcanic
activity and large earthquakes in the Kamchatka region
(as well as for other areas in the northwestern part of the
Pacific tectonic zone) on the one hand and the solar
rhythm, the lunar rhythm and their harmonics on the

The main drawback to the first of these approaches

consists in the difficulties inherent in the determination
and interpretation of significant spectral components,
considering the complicated character of the external
excitation and the response on the part of the system to
geodynamic processes. In contrast to this, the main
drawback to the second approach consists in the unjus
tifiable concept that the system responds in a passive
manner, thus reducing the response to an exact (as to
period) reproduction of individual components in the
excitation spectrum. Nevertheless, both of these
approaches are equally important and complement one
another fairly well, dealing with one and the same prob
lem.
The present study aims at developing the approach
of Khain and Khalilov [2008] in application to the
KurilKamchatka region and using a broader class of
volcanic activity in Kamchatka and the North Kuril
Islands, as well as attempting a comparative study of
periodicities shown by the time series of great (M 7.7)
KurilKamchatka earthquakes. This approach is sup
posed to yield more detailed and accurate determina
tions of characteristic periods and phases in the har
monics of regional volcanic activity and seismicity. This
is required for comparing the wellknown range of exci
54

A STUDY OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VOLCANIC ACTIVITY

tation factors and the range of responses to these on the

part of the geodynamic medium studied here, which is
the factual basis for regional forecasts of seismicity and
volcanism.
One important, but subsidiary, problem consists in
demonstrating the possibilities offered by the present
conceptual model for describing volcanic activity in
extensive areas based on using data for volcanoes that
exhibit definite levels of activity that is not invariably an
eruption.
BRIEF INFORMATION
ON THE AREA OF STUDY
The KurilKamchatka region studied here lies at
the junction of the Eurasian and the Pacific plate and
shows both a high seismicity and active volcanism.
The first description of Kamchatka volcanoes and
their eruptions was due to S.P. Krasheninnikov and was
published in 1755. However, systematic volcanological
studies were begun in Kamchatka as late as in 1931
1935 by the expedition headed by academician
A.N. Zavaritskii, as well as by workers of the Kam
chatka Volcanological Station, who began continuous
observation in 1935 on Klyuchevskoi, Ploskii Tol
bachik, Avacha, Gorelyi and other volcanoes [Fedotov,
2013].
The Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruption Response
Team (KVERT) was set up in 1993. Information on the
condition of Kamchatka volcanoes began to be
reported on a weekly basis, and several times a day in the
event of a large eruption. The contemporary system for
observation of Kamchatka volcanoes and prediction
methods are now sufficient to predict most large and
minor eruptions in Kamchatka on the shortterm basis
(http://www.kscnet.ru/ivs/kvert/). Satellite monitoring
enables timely observation of volcanic activity.
The volcanoes on the Kuril Islands are very difficult
to observe, hence the data on the volcanic activity in this
area have a shorter historical base, and the Sakhalin Vol
canic Eruption Response Team (SVERT), an analogue
of the Kamchatkan team, began operation in the area as
late as in 2006.
The earthquake data for the region are available
since 1742 for the Kuril Islands and since 1737 for
Kamchatka [Novyi katalog , 1977]. Complete infor
mation on great earthquakes in the region is available
for this period since 1900 at the latest. The most com
plete seismological data as observed by the network of
regional seismic stations are available since 1958 for the
Kuril Islands and since 1961 for Kamchatka.
A BRIEF REVIEW OF PREVIOUS RESULTS
Studies on the timedependent properties of seis
micity and volcanic activity are frequently concerned
with definite cyclic excitations, namely, the external
factors due to the influence of the Moon and Sun, in
particular, the 18.6year lunar cycle and the 22year
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55

Hale cycle. The review of such studies given below is

mostly relevant to the KurilKamchatka region. A
more complete review can be found in [Khain and Kha
lilov, 2008].
One notable result of such studies is the correlation
that was found between the volcanic and seismic pro
cesses in the Kamchatka region for 275 years now with
various phases of the 6.2year (18.6/3) harmonic of the
lunar cycle, as well as the longterm forecast for the
KurilKamchatka island arc and northwestern Japan
based on these patterns [Shirokov, 1977, 1978, among
others].
Shirokov and Serafimova [2006] used phase dia
grams to reveal a statistically significant occurrence of
large earthquakes during phases of the lunar cycle and
of the solar Hale cycle. They described the method and
developed a forecast on this basis for Japan, the Kuril
Islands, Kamchatka, and the Aleutian IslandAlaska
zone for the next 20 years.
This approach was also developed in [Shirokov,
2008; Shirokov and Serafimova, 2008; Serafimova and
Shirokov, 2012; Gusev, 2008]. Gusev [2008] identified a
significant periodicity of great Kamchatka earthquakes
based on the 55.8year harmonic of the lunar cycle, as
well as discussing several other periodicities.
The bestdefined pattern identified by [Fedotov
et al., 2011] was the 5year (5.06 years) quasiperiodic
ity (which has been known for more than 30 years) of
great Kamchatka earthquakes, which is not essentially
reducible to a similar harmonic (4.7 years) of the lunar
cycle (18.6/4 years) that I.N. Tikhonov identified from
data on volcanic eruptions at the Kuril island arc
[Tikhonov et al., 2011].
It can thus be said that the influence of extraterres
trial factors on seismicity and volcanism is not in doubt,
but in some cases, in particular, in the present study, one
encounters the problem of interpreting the periodicities
that are identified. Two approaches are then possible for
determining the roles of the following factors: the
response of a relatively simple eruptiongenerating and
earthquakegenerating earth in the form of filtering cer
tain periodicities, possibly with some shift of phase; the
response of a complex earth that has its own range of
periodicities.
The approach advocated by A.A. Gusev, V.A. Shi
rokov, and I.N. Tikhonov referred to above implies the
first option, viz., a simple and passive earth. However,
there are several facts that indicate a more complex role.
In the first place, the fact is that the 5.06year harmonic
as determined for the entire KurilKamchatka island
arc is irreducible to harmonics of the lunar cycle,
although similar harmonics have been identified by
other authors for some individual parts of the arc.
In addition, the results by [Khain and Khalilov,
2008] unequivocally point to a considerable scatter in
the periodicities of seismicity and volcanic activity for
various regions of the Earth, including similartype
regions. Lastly, the publication referred to above points
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to a quasiperiodicity in the behavior of both seismicity

and volcanic activity, which manifests itself in the form
of sets of two or more peaks with a nearly constant
period of occurrence separated by variable time inter
vals with a slightly longer period. One can also recall a
similar phenomenon in the form of a 5.06year quasi
periodicity, which is characteristic for the time series of
KurilKamchatka earthquakes [Fedotov et al., 2011].
It is also important to note that this phenomenon can in
principle reflect the tuning of the phase in the response
of the earth at a certain period to an external excitation
with a similar period.
The question of the role of the geodynamic medium
in transmitting the spectrum of an external excitation is
complex, but the following fact can suffice for the goals
of the present study: the approach that tolerates some
deviations of the periodicities in seismicity and volcanic
activity from their theoretical values is quite justifiable
and the deviations themselves can be real.
The chief goal of the present study consists in detect
ing the most general regional patterns in the seismicity
and volcanic activity of the KurilKamchatka island
arc based on periodicities. This problem is important for
understanding the relationship between the geody
namic processes that control these processes and known
external factors. The results can also be used for predict
ing seismicity and volcanic activity within the Kuril and
the Kamchatka parts of the region as a complement to
several other methods, as well as for serving as a basis for
similar studies in some other regions.
RAW DATA, ITS PROCESSING
AND PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS
Traditionally, the concept of volcanic activity
refers to the rate and violence of volcanic eruptions,
which are rather rare events. At the same time, for the
region under study we have much more complete data
on nonexplosive manifestations of volcanic activity. By
analogy with seismic activity it would be logical to
extend the concept of volcanic activity to cover these
nonexplosive phenomena as well.
This study is based on the hypothesis that all individ
ual occurrences of volcanic activity characterize its
overall average level for extensive regions such as Kam
chatka, the Kuril Islands or the entire KurilKam
chatka region. In the latter case the entire KurilKam
chatka island arc is treated as a homogeneous system to
a first approximation [Fedotov, 2005; Fedotov et al.,
2007, 2008].
The problem of determining a numerical parameter
of volcanic activity similar to the concept of seismic
activity based on the number of events above a given
lower level can at present be solved in few cases and
mostly for explosive eruptions only. Nevertheless, the
problem can be solved approximately for a broader class
of eruptions.
Firstly, there is a natural limitation to the lower level
of observed volcanic activity that is determined by spe

cific possibilities of its recording. Secondly, the concept

of a large scale of volcanic processes satisfactorily
removes one natural drawback to earlier observations,
their spatial variability. Thirdly, data completeness is
effectively incorporated at the level of removing the
timedependent trend. Such a solution is a crude one,
but the present study shows it to be occasionally satis
factory.
This study used data on the activity volcanoes in
Kamchatka and the North Kuril Islands for the 1840
2012 period (Table 1). These data are presented by the
KVERT
at
the
web
address
(www.ksc
net.ru/ivs/kvert/volcanoes/index.php). The most com
plete data on the eruptions of the world volcanoes from
the fundamental work [Gushchenko, 1979] were incor
porated indirectly in comparing our results with the
results of [Khain and Khalilov, 2008; Shirokov and
Serafimova, 2008].
The results were to be extrapolated to the Kuril
Islands using the concept of a uniform (to a first approx
imation) structure of the KurilKamchatka region, as
well as of a global character of the processes involved.
Using the above concepts, we obtained estimates of
volcanic activity AV (Fig. 1) from the total number of
volcanoes in Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands showing
some kind of activity during 1 year (see Table 1).
We thus used the following scale to obtain AV:
activeinactive as specifying the activity of a vol
cano. These are essentially expert estimates and their
real value can be justified only by the value of the result
obtained.
The trend of AV values reflects increasing detail and
completeness of observations over time. The level of the
upper part in the trend line (AV = 4.4) gives our estimate
of the average annual number of those volcanoes in
Kamchatka and the North Kuril Islands, which are in
the eruption phase or in a state of increased activity
(active), for the contemporary level of detail and
completeness available in the observations. When the
trend is subtracted, we obtain values of the relative vol
canic activity A 'V , that characterize its shortterm vari
ations.
It is important that possible errors in the estimation
of the trend can lead to significant errors in the region of
longperiod harmonic components only, and this is not
critical for the purposes of the present study.
An additive representation of the parameter AV as a
trend and variations in A 'V seems to be admissible as a
first approximation. We shall use the term volcanic
activity ( A 'V ) instead of the concept relative volcanic
activity (AV), which rather reflects the methodological
aspect of the study.
The AV data were not smoothed in order to achieve
higher accuracy in the region of shorter periods. The spec
tral decomposition procedure is excellently set forth at
http://www.cognitivist.ru/er/kernel/prologi_spectrfourier.
xml.

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57

Table 1. Active years of volcanoes in Kamchatka and the North Kuril Islands since 1840*
Name

Event # after
IAVCEI

Active years
Northern Kamchatka

Shiveluch

100027

1854, 18791883, 18971929, 19441950, 1964, 1980, 1993, 2001,

20042005, 2007, 2010

Klyuchevskoi

100026

1840, 1848, 18521854, 1865, 18771879, 18821883, 1890, 18961898, 1904,

1907, 19091911, 1913, 1915, 19221923, 19251926, 1929, 19311932,
19351939, 19441946, 1949, 1951, 19531954, 1956, 19581966, 19681974,
19771990, 19932000, 20022005, 20072010, 2012

Ushkovskii

1000261

1890, 1980

Bezymyannyi

100025

19551965, 1977, 19791986, 19891990, 19921993, 1995, 1997, 1999,

20002012

Ploskii Tolbachik

100024

1904, 1931, 1937, 19391941, 1954, 19561957, 19591962, 1964, 19671970,

19751977, 20122013
Central Kamchatka

Kizimen

100023

19281929, 20102013

Kronotskii

100020

19221923

Krasheninnikova

100019

1963

Karymskii

100013

1852, 1854, 1908, 19111912, 1915, 1921, 1923, 1925, 1929, 19321935, 1938,
1940, 19451947, 1952, 19551957, 19601967, 19701973, 19761982, 1985,
19962013

Zhupanovskii

100012

1882, 1925, 1929, 1940, 19561957

Avacha

100010

1855, 1878, 1881, 18941895, 1901, 1909, 19261927, 1938, 1945, 1991, 2001

Koryakskii

100009

19561957, 20082009
Southern Kamchatka

Opala

100008

1854, 1894

Gorelyi

100007

1855, 1869, 19291932, 1947, 1961, 19801981, 19841986

Mutnovskii

100006

1848, 18521854, 1898, 1904, 19161917, 19271929, 19381939, 1945,

19601961, 1996, 20002008

Ksudach

100005

1907

Zheltovskii

100004

1923, 19721973

Il'inskii

100003

1901
North Kurils

Alaid

090039

1854, 1860, 1894, 19331934, 1972, 1981

Ebeko

090038

1859, 19341935, 19461959, 1963, 1965, 1967, 1969, 1975, 1987, 19891991,
1998, 20042009

Chikurachki

090036

18531859, 1958, 1961, 1964, 1973, 1986, 20022003, 2005, 20072008

Tatarinova

19531959, 1962, 1973, 2004

Karpinskogo

090035

1946, 19521953, 1973, 2004

Pik Fussa

090034

1854, 1969, 1978, 1981, 1982, 2004

* Data marked with asterisk were taken from www.kscnet.ru/ivs/kvert/volcanoes/index.php.

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AV, year1
7
1
6

AV =

43

.49

1900

4t
0.02

1890

2020

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1960

1950

1940

1930

1920

1910

1880

1870

1860

1850

1840

T, year
Fig. 1. Yearly numbers of volcanoes in Kamchatka and North Kuril Islands where signs of activation were noted, and a smoothed
timedependent behavior of the numbers.
(1) yearly numbers of active (for explanation see text) volcanoes in Kamchatka and North Kuril Islands AV, (2) smoothed val
ues of AV and the region of their standard deviations, (3) linear timedependent trend. Mean yearly value of AV when reduced to
the conditions of 2013 is 4.4.

The resulting periodogram (Fig. 2) shows that the

variations in the activity of volcanoes in Kamchatka and
the Kuril Islands are represented by the following basic
harmonics: 52.8, 38.3, 25.3, 21.1, 15.2, 11.6, 8.4, and
5.7 years. We also identified a harmonic whose period is
close to that of the lunar cycle, 18.4 years. This figure
does not contain the significant 91.2year harmonic,
whose origin can hardly be investigated using the data
we have.
The 52.8, 18.4, and 21.1year periodicities are
apparently the harmonics of the Moons tidal cycle and
of the Hale cycle, which are less by 3.6% on average.
Such a displacement for periods longer than 20 years
seems to be significant. The 11.6year harmonic may be
the 11year solar cycle. The 25.3year harmonic is fairly
consistent with the 25year period of volcanic activity as
derived by Khain and Khalilov [2008] for Kamchatka
and compressive zones on the Earth. The 38.3year har
monic corresponds to the 40year period indicated
above. These values vary within the ranges 21 to 28 and
39 to 54 years, respectively, for all subduction zones,
reflecting regional features.
It should be noted that [Khain and Khalilov, 2008]
identified the following cycles of volcanic activity (the
corresponding variations of the Wolf numbers are
enclosed in parentheses): 14 (14), 10 (11.2), 8 (8.4), 6
(5.6) years for subduction zones. The two last periodic
ities are nearly the 8.5 and 5.7year harmonics that will
be identified in the present paper below.

The procedure for synthesis of an idealized behavior

of volcanic activity based on the longer harmonics
allows us to compensate for the possible influence of
gaps in the earlier observations on the timedependent
behavior of volcanic activity and to derive its true
behavior. A good fit was obtained (Fig. 3) using six har
monics: 91.2, 52.8, 38.3, 25.3, 21.1, and 15.2 years.
The resulting idealized behavior of volcanic activity
can now be used to predict it. One can see that the 2004
volcanic activity (in the sense defined above) was close
to its maximum for the previous 40 years. It can also be
hypothesized that the volcanic activity in Kamchatka
and in the North Kurils would decrease to the average
level in a few years (see Fig. 3).
It should be noted that the behavior of volcanic
activity as shown in Fig. 3 is somewhat at odds with the
following facts: the previous large volcanic eruption in
Kamchatka was recorded in 19751976 [Bolshoe tresh
chinnoe , 1984] during a local minimum of volcanic
activity; Akademii Nauk Volcano had its only (during
historical time) eruption in 1996 near the absolute min
imum; the 20122013 Tolbachik eruption is occurring
upon the background of a significant (down to the aver
age level) lowering of volcanic activity (but in complete
agreement with the forecast of Shirokov [1978] based
on the lunar cycle).
The more complete data on volcanic eruptions
taken from [Shirokov and Serafimova, 2008] are pre
sented schematically in Fig. 3 as well. One can see that

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30.832.6

38.342.5

21.121.6

18.418.6

11.611.7
12.712.8
13.613.7
15.215.3

8.408.52
9.109.12

5.705.73

0.2

6.206.38
7.007.15

0.3
5.02

Part of variation accounted for

0.4

59

52.854.0

25.327.0

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0.1

0
4

16

32

64
, year

Fig. 2. Periodograms of (1) volcanic activity, (2) seismicity. The vertical axis shows relative variations in timedependent behavior
that can be accounted for by a harmonic with the appropriate period (a strictly periodic signal will have the value 1). Legend in
the figure contains ranges of periods determined by nearby peaks of volcanic activity and seismicity.

a significant part of observed eruptions nevertheless falls

in the region of maximum volcanic activity.

19381949 and 19701981 periods at periods of about

11 years are considerably irregular (see Fig. 3).

Considering that the relationship of the duration of

preeruption intervals versus eruption vigor is not rigor
ous, although direct, as noted by [Khain and Khalilov,
2008], the fact that the most powerful manifestations of
volcanism are not completely consistent with the peri
ods of maximum volcanic activity is quite understand
able. This underlines the analogy between volcanic
activity and seismicity. It can thus be said that the volca
nic activity defined as the frequency of volcanic occur
rences and as eruption intensity is not a unique function
and merits a separate study.

Kiselev and Kiselev [2006] used the 18681997 data

to reveal a significant decrease of the Hurst exponent for
the aa index of geomagnetic activity, while the same
exponent remained practically unchanged for the Wolf
numbers. This means that the recurrent structure of
geomagnetic variations changed during the period in
question. A transition occurred from a process whose
memory had the value of the Hurst exponent H ~ 0.9
1.0 to the values H ~ 0.6, that is, toward a memoryless
process (H = 0.5). The anomalous region in Fig. 3 is
highlighted by a variable shading, with the minimum
level H ~ 0.6 corresponding to the black band. The
authors referred to here also noted a lowered value of
that parameter toward the end of the period under
study, in the 19781997 interval.

In connection with estimates of how adequate our

representation of volcanic activity as a function of time
is, it would be helpful to compare it with the behavior of
volcanic activity derived from the worldwide data on
volcanic eruptions in regions under compression
[Khain and Khalilov, 2008]. As appears from Fig. 3, the
coincidence is quite satisfactory, with significant devia
tions being recorded only for the 18801894 and 1940
1967 periods. In addition, the variations during the
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The above facts (the former completely and the lat

ter in part, at the suggestion level) are consistent with
the irregularity shown by the behavior of volcanic activ
ity during the 19381949 and 19701981 periods,
respectively.
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A'V , years1
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1

2020

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1960

1950

1940

1930

1910

5
1900

1890

1920

3
1880

2
1860

1850

1
1840

1870

T, years
Fig. 3. Estimates of volcanic activity variations for the period from 1840 to early 2013 and a forecast of volcanic activity until 2025.
(1) smoothed values of relative activity, (2) its values as fitted by basic harmonic components, (3) plot showing variations in vol
cano activity for compression belts on the earth, from [Khain and Khalilov, 2008, p. 73, Fig. 12] with linear trend subtracted,
(4) times of eruption and relative ejecta volume for Kamchatka volcanoes in accordance with [Shirokov and Serafimova, 2008],
also given are current estimates for the Tolbachik eruption that began in 2012, (5) region of substantial irregularity in geomagnetic
activity [Kiselev and Kiselev, 2006], for detail see text.

It may also be remarked that, while being nearly in

the opposite phase with the average (for the subduction
zones) behavior of volcanic activity in 1950, the behav
ior of regional volcanic activity became practically syn
chronous with it by the time of the next maximum
(1976).
The above facts indicate a possible relationship
between volcanic and geomagnetic activities: regional
volcanic activity follows the geomagnetic disturbances,
but shortly recovers its synchronization with the average
activity. It may be that this inference is a complement to
the concept of a more powerful mechanism for this
excitation due to the influence on mantle convection, a
mechanism that may be related to expansion and com
pression of the Earth [Khain and Khalilov, 2008].
Although the above results were based on the study
of volcanic activity in Kamchatka and the North Kurils,
it is supposed that many of the harmonics in the varia
tion of volcanic activity due to external excitation are
more general in character. This generalization is very
important for the goals of the present study.
Our results also point to convergence in the limit for
the estimates of volcanic activity based on the concep
tual model and the method proposed here using explo
sive eruptions (see Fig. 3). This circumstance enables
the model proposed here to be in principle capable of
predicting the most dangerous volcanic occurrences,
namely, large eruptions.

The analysis of the spectrum of volcanic activity and

of seismicity as described later in this paper is a problem
in its own right. We are using just a few of the harmonics
that show the most obvious connection between seis
micity and the volcanic process. A detailed study of the
resulting spectral decomposition may provide addi
tional information on regional properties of the geody
namic process.
We constructed spectra for the periods of seismic
activity in the region (see Fig. 2) using data on great
earthquakes (Table 2) furnished by the [Novyi katalog ,
1977] for the 18411975 earthquakes and by the NEIC
catalog (http://www.usgs.gov) for 19762012.
The spectral representation of seismic activity was
determined from the times of great KurilKamchatka
earthquakes. As a matter of fact, we studied their distri
bution between positive and negative halfperiods
based on initial phase and specified return time. The
most characteristic harmonics in the resulting spectrum
of seismic activity (see Fig. 2) are those with periods of
54.0, 42.5, 18.6, 8.52, 5.70, and 5.02 years.
The 18.6year harmonic coincides with the
18.6year period of the lunar cycle. The 54year period
icity is probably related to the 55.8year harmonic of the
lunar cycle. The 5year quasiperiodicity in the occur
rence of great KurilKamchatka earthquakes was
pointed out by [Fedotov et al., 2011]. The 42.5year
harmonic is close to the 45year one that was identified
in the world catalog by [Khain and Khalilov, 2008].

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Table 2. Great (M 7.7) KurilKamchatka earthquakes since 1840*

Earthquake time

Hypocentral coordinates

no.

day

hour

H, km

17

21

52.5

159.5

30

8.4

25

44.7

149.7

40

8.2

year

month

1841

1843

1894

22

42.5

146.0

40

8.8

1902

11

50.0

148.0

600

8.0

1904

25

14

52.0

159.0

30

7.7

1904

25

21

52.0

159.0

30

7.7

1906

10

42.0

146.0

40

7.8

1912

19

41.8

144.3

40

7.7

1915

48.4

155.5

30

8.3

1916

10

31

15

45.5

153.9

30

7.7

17

45.6

151.1

40

8.2

11

44.9

151.4

40

7.9

5**

10**

1918
1918
1923

16

53.0

161.0

20

8.5

1923

24

55.0

162.4

20

7.7

12

1929

13

50.6

154.7

135

7.8

13

1935

11

14

43.3

146.5

50

7.7

14

1950

28

10

45.6

143.5

340

7.8

15

1952

41.9

143.7

50

8.3

16

1952

11

16

52.3

161.0

20

8.5

17

1956

10

11

45.9

150.5

105

7.8

18

1958

11

22

44.5

148.5

40

8.2

19

1963

10

13

44.8

149.5

47

8.1

20

1968

16

10

41.4

142.8

40

7.7

1969

11

21

43.6

147.8

40

8.2

1969

11

21

43.6

147.2

38

7.8

22

1971

12

15

55.9

163.4

30

7.9

23

1973

17

43.2

145.9

55

7.9

1978

23

44.1

149.3

28

7.8

1978

24

19

44.2

149.0

31

7.9

1978

12

14

44.6

146.7

118

7.8

1994

10

13

43.7

147.4

28

8.3

26

1997

12

11

54.8

162.0

25

7.8

27

2003

25

19

41.7

143.9

33

8.3

2006

11

15

11

46.7

153.2

12

8.3

2007

13

46.2

154.5

23

8.1

29

2008

53.9

152.9

646

7.7

30

2012

14

49.8

145.1

583

7.7

11**

21**

24**
25

28**

* Earthquake parameters were taken from [Novyi ..., 1977] for the period 18411975 and from the NEIC catalog (http://www.usgs.gov) for
the period 19762012.
** Grey shading marks the parameters of those earthquakes which are treated as basic in the relevant set and are used for calculating spectra
and forecasts.
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Among those considered above are the following

harmonics of seismicity and volcanic activity: 54.0
(52.8), 18.6 (18.4), 8.5 (8.4), and 5.7 (5.7). Overall, the
periods in the spectrum of volcanic activity for periods
over 20 years are less by an average of 5.6% and are prac
tically identical with them for shorter periods (see
Fig. 2).
Similarly to volcanic activity, [Khain and Khalilov,
2008] also identified the periodicities of great (M 7.7)
earthquakes that are close to the harmonics of the Wolf
numbers, including the 8year and 6year harmonics;
they are probably those with periods of 8.5 and 5.7 years
above. This fact underlines their importance and their
properties form the basis for the method of prediction
for great (M 7.7) KurilKamchatka earthquakes that
will be presented below.
The most noticeable distinctive feature of both spec
tra consists in low significance for the seismicity har
monic whose period is close to 25.3 years, which is very
pronounced for volcanic activity (see Fig. 2).
The model of spectral decomposition considered in
this study can be used to furnish the following explana
tions of this fact: there is a specific response of volcanic
activity at this period; the response of seismicity to exci
tation with the period of interest exists, but its phase var
ies. In the latter case there can be a second harmonic
with a period of 12.512.7 years. Similar harmonics
with periods of 12.6 (12.7) years are present in the spec
tra, but these are nearly at the noise level.
The response to the periodicity may also be sup
posed to occur in the form of a harmonic with a period
of 8.48.5 years, but a similar periodicity is considered
in this study as a second harmonic of the 17year cycle.
It should be noted that we do not consider harmon
ics at periods below 5 years, because the level of the
noise component is already sufficiently high in this
range. We can point out for further studies that the har
monic that is best identified in this range is the one with
a period of 2.02.2 years.
It should also be pointed out that [Khain and Kha
lilov, 2008] considered several other processes that can
affect volcanism and seismicity: fluctuations of the
world ocean level, changes in the Earths angular veloc
ity of rotation due to expansion and compression of the
Earth, weather, and other phenomena. Several periodic
processes were also considered by [Gusev, 2008].
DETECTION OF PERIODICITIES
THAT CHARACTERIZE
THE OCCURRENCE OF GREAT
KURILKAMCHATKA EARTHQUAKES
As was mentioned, our index of volcanic activity was
chosen to be the number of the most active (during 1
year) volcanoes in Kamchatka and the North Kuril
Islands. Our index of seismic activity was chosen to be
the great (M 7.7) earthquakes, which pose the greatest
hazard to the entire KurilKamchatka region.

This combination is justified, in the first place, by

our concept of a large scale of common excitation fac
tors. In addition, it is assumed in the present paper that
the influence of all these factors is to a first approxima
tion similar at all levels of the phenomena, from low vol
canic activations to eruptions and from small to large
earthquakes. The use of the spectra of two different pro
cesses allows one to identify common excitation factors
with higher accuracy.
The large spatial scales of the factors that influence
the occurrence of tectonic earthquakes is corroborated
by their distant interaction, not only along a tectonic
fault, but also at distances of some hundreds of kilome
ters from it. For instance, [Mogi, 1988] detected inter
action between deepfocus shallow great quakes.
One example of the interaction of volcanism and
seismicity consists in an obvious relationship between
rare events, viz., the July 5, 2008 earthquake (MW = 7.7,
H = 630 km) and the 20082009 activation of Koryak
skii Volcano. The processes that accompanied these
phenomena were discussed in more detail by [Shirokov
and Dubrovskaya, 2010].
There are different models for the relationship
between such events. Zlobin and Polets [2011] hypoth
esize a relationship between the June 11, 2009 eruption
of Pik Sarycheva Volcano and the 20062009 earth
quakes in the seismogenic zone at the Middle Kurils as
a consequence of fissuring and portions of fluids pene
trating into the magma chambers [Rebetskii, 2008].
Khain and Khalilov [2008] discussed a mechanism for
volcanic activation at subduction zones due to move
ments in the lithosphere and longcontinued compres
sion, a mechanism that is also used in models for the
occurrence of great earthquakes.
Within the framework of our conceptual model we
use the following general concept about the mechanism
that is operative in the relationship between volcanism
and seismicity: geodynamic processes affect seismicity
by changes in the state of stress in the seismically active
earth on a regional scale; at the same time, these stresses
determine the permeability of volcanic ejecta in exten
sive areas in volcanically active regions.
We identified (above in this paper) a 5.7year har
monic using data on great (M 7.7) KurilKamchatka
earthquakes and on the activity of volcanoes in Kam
chatka and the North Kuril Islands (see Fig. 2). The
phases of the harmonic with a similar period
(5.717 years) provide a satisfactory retrospective fore
cast of 22 of 30, i.e., 73% (without taking into account
earthquakes that are both spatially near events and
occurred within 1 year) of earthquakes (see Table 2),
with the waiting time being 50%.
Consideration of the eight outlying earthquakes
revealed that five of these (1902, 1918, 1935, 1952, and
1969) are separated by intervals of 16.2, 17.0, 17.1, and
16.8 years, that is, an average of 16.8 years. The full form
of this series is represented by the following seven earth

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63

2020

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1960

1950

1940

1930

1920

1910

1900

T, years

1890

1860

1850

1840

(a)

1950

1940

1930

1920

1910

1900

1890

(b)

T, years

2025

2015

2005

1995

1985

1975

1965

1955

(c)

T, years
1

Fig. 4. Correspondence between great (M 7.7) earthquakes at the KurilKamchatka island arc (see Table 2) and predicted inter
vals based on the periodicities 5.717 and 8.576 years, which are supposed to be harmonics of the 17year (17.15) cycle.
(a) period 18402025, (b) 18901955, (c) 19552025.
(1) visual representation of predicted intervals and correspondence between these and the time of great (M 7.7) KurilKam
chatka earthquakes (see Table 2), the upper parts of prediction line mark the most probable time intervals of earthquake occur
rence, (2) same for 20132025, (3) the 67% predicted interval of great (shallow) KurilKamchatka earthquakes based on 5year
quasiperiodicities [Fedotov et al., 2011] and its extension based on the results of the present study until 2015, (4) second solution
for predicted intervals.

quakes: 1902, 1918, 1935, 1952, 1969, 1994, and 2012

(see Table 2).
We note that the period of 5.717 years that was men
tioned above is near to the third harmonic of the 17year
cycle (17/3). The 17year periodicity thus identified
experiences a phase change in the 19691994 time
interval, which is the only interval between two consec
utive great earthquakes of the above series whose dura
tion has nearly the same value as the 17year period
times 1.5. This inversion suggests a choice for refining
the 17/2year harmonic.
The 19731984 time interval, which contains the
hypothetical inversion of the 17year periodicity, is also
characterized by irregular volcanic activity (see Fig. 3).
This fact provides another indication of the potential
role played by geomagnetic processes in activations of
volcanism and seismicity.
The use of the 8.576year harmonic (5.717 3/2,
the initial phase 1898.77 was obtained from the times of
the outlying earthquakes mentioned above) in com
bination with the 5.717year one (the initial phase
1903.77 was obtained by spectral decomposition) allows
our retrospective prediction using conventionally posi
tive phases to cover 29 of the 30 great (M 7.7) Kuril
Kamchatka earthquakes with 75% waiting time (Fig. 4).
JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND SEISMOLOGY

The probability of this distribution of points in pre

dicted intervals is 0.2%* assuming the binomial law, and
this shows that the result is not accidental, provided the
phases were not selected. The maxima of the 8.5year
harmonic correspond to the points of intersection
between the 5.7year harmonic and the zero values, that
is, the maximum rates of change for the harmonic.
The 1971 earthquake did not occur during a positive
phase; that event occurred at the junction of the Kuril
Kamchatka and Aleutian island arcs, hence in a slightly
different setting [Fedotov et al., 2012]. We thus con
clude that this failuretopredict can be disregarded in
our prediction of the KurilKamchatka earthquakes.
Our estimate that the distribution of earthquake
times over active and inactive intervals is not acci
dental was tested by Monte Carlo assuming equal prob
abilities for the times of 29 great earthquakes in the
period 19002012, but with the additional requirement
that the interevent times between adjacent earthquakes
* That

estimate would have been correct for the case of a single

active phase and a single inactive one. However, we here have
six phases instead of two, so it is necessary to use a corrective coef
ficient (Feller, W., An Introduction into Probability Theory and
Its Applications, 3rd Ed., vol. 1, 1968), with the result that the
estimate loses significance. Note by Science Editor.

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SOLOMATIN

should be at least 1 year. We computed a total of 20 000

random samples with 29 earthquake times in each.
The influence of selection in phase options to ensure
the least number of earthquakes falling into the inac
tive periods was estimated by random additional phase
shifts. We used 15 samples of such shifts for the 5.7year
harmonic to within the error of its phase (0.27 years).
For the 8.5year harmonic we obtained the upper esti
mate by computing 60 such samples within the discrete
shift of 0.92 years used here. We did no phase selection
as a lower estimate for the 8.5year harmonic, which
is nearer the actual method used. For each of the
20000 earthquake samples we selected a single mini
mum value of the number of earthquakes falling into the
inactive intervals using 15 60 and 15 samples of
phase shifts.
In computing the upper estimate we obtained the
result that less than 2 points fell into inactive intervals
in 92 cases of 20 000 (0.46%). The lower estimate was
0.22% (44 cases) and is similar to the computed one.
Our estimate of the randomness for the result is in the
0.20.5% range that incorporates the actual selection
option. If we remove the limitation on the time intervals
between successive earthquakes (for a more correct
comparison with the theoretical value given above,
0.2%), we find that the resulting probability values are in
the range of 0.61.5%.
The forecast of the next great earthquake for the
KurilKamchatka island arc is based on the above
results and looks as follows. The region is subject to
increased hazard of great (M 7.7) earthquakes during
the March 2010 to March 2015 period. The probability
of such an earthquake during that period is about 7/21
7/17, or 3341%. The probability at a later time (until
January 2018) is below 1/14, or 7%. The next hazardous
period will terminate in February 2023 (see Fig. 4).
We also found a second analogous solution based on
the use of the phase in the 8.576year harmonic derived
by spectral decomposition (1900.20). Here, the zero
points of the 5.717year harmonic correspond to the
minimum values of the 8.576year harmonic. The out
lier is the 1958 earthquake. The respective solution is
adjudged to be the worst, even though short aseismic
pauses have been combined.
The problem of matching among the resulting solu
tions probably needs additional consideration, but the
important circumstance for the present study consists in
the fact that the forecast for the next few years as derived
on the second option is practically unchanged: the cur
rent hazardous interval will last 11 months longer, until
February 2016, and the next will also start at January
2018.
Figure 4 also shows the 67% region in the forecast of
the next earthquake to occur at the KurilKamchatka
island arc as derived by Fedotov et al. [2011] from the
5year quasiperiodic sequence of great KurilKam
chatka earthquakes. In view of the special features
inherent in our estimates, we did not include deep

focus earthquakes, so that the 2012 Sea of Okhotsk

earthquake is formally irrelevant to the above forecast.
One important issue consists in the fact that the begin
ning of the prediction interval in the above reference
coincides with the beginning of the hazardous interval
based on the results of the present study (see Fig. 4).
The result derived in this study allows us to extend
the most hazardous interval in the area until February
2016 in consideration of the result [Fedotov et al., 2011]
concerning the great energy stored within the Kam
chatka segment of the KurilKamchatka earthquake
generating zone (which actually equals the energy of the
maximum (M = 8.5) earthquake recorded in that zone,
see Table 2). This is also consistent with the information
on the existing, very high seismic hazard in the region,
in the area of PetropavlovskKamchatskii (Kamchatka)
in the first place, as provided by the last published long
term earthquake forecast [Fedotov et al., 2012].
The resulting 17.15year periodicity is likely to be in
agreement with the 17year variation in the Suns mag
netic field [Juckett, 1998].
It would be appropriate to compare our forecast with
a similar forecast developed for the period until 2030 for
Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands by Serafimova and
Shirokov [2012]. These authors highlight the following
seismically hazardous periods: Kamchatka: August
2015 to July 2017 (M 7.6); Kuril Islands: September
2013 to February 2016 and November 2024 to January
2026 (M 7.5). The probability of a great earthquake in
the region as a whole was thus increased from Septem
ber 2013 to July 2017. Here, we disregard any differ
ences that arise by including deepfocus earthquakes in
the forecast to be compared on the one hand and the
M = 7.57.6 earthquakes on the other, since both of
these events are comparatively rare.
A discrepancy in prediction results is primarily
observed during the period March 2016 to June 2017, in
which the probability of great earthquakes in the entire
region is substantially decreased. One notes that the
reliability of predicting quiescent periods in the present
study is probably higher than that of earthquake predic
**

tion derived in the reference last cited. The intersec

tion of hazardous periods derived by both methods is
observed from September 2013 to February 2016 in the
Kuril Islands and from August 2015 to February 2016 in
Kamchatka. It is a noteworthy fact that the terminations
**In

attempts at earthquake prediction it is important to assess

prediction efficiency I (see Gusev, A.A., Earthquake prediction
based on seismicity statistics, in Seismichnost i seismicheskii
prognoz, svoistva verkhnei mantii i ikh svyaz' s vulkanizmom na
Kamchatke (Seismicity and Earthquake Prediction, Upper
Mantle Properties and Their Relationship to Volcanism in Kam
chatka), Novosibirsk: Nauka, 1974, pp. 109119) The quantity
I is given by the ratio of the relative number of predicted
earthquakes (29, i.e., 0.967) to relative alarm time (0.75), i.e.,
I = 1.29. A random guess forecast will give I = 1. A forecast is
statistically significant, if I > 2.0, hence this authors forecast is
not statistically significant. Note by Science Editor.

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2014

2020

2020

65

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1960

1950

1940

1930

1920

1910

1900

1890

1880

1870

1860

1850

1840

A STUDY OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VOLCANIC ACTIVITY

T, years
1

Fig. 5. Comparison between the times of great (M 7.7) earthquakes at the KurilKamchatka island arc and the behavior of har
monic components that correspond to the spectral peaks of volcanic activity and seismicity in the region that are close to the
56year harmonic of the lunar cycle (see Fig. 2).
(1) a plot of the 54.0year harmonic component derived from the timedependent behavior of several great KurilKamchatka earth
quakes, including deepfocus ones (see Fig. 2, Table 2), (2) same for the 52.8year harmonic of volcanic activity (see Fig. 2) with a
shift of a quarter period toward the origin of the time axis, (3) behavior of the periodicity that corresponds to the 56year (55.8 years)
harmonic of the lunar cycle, constructed for predicting large shallow Kamchatka earthquakes [Gusev, 2008], (4) time limits of pos
itive phase in the 54.0year component, (5) times of great earthquakes at the KurilKamchatka island arc (see Table 2), Kuril earth
quakes are shown at bottom, Kamchatka earthquakes at top, and deepfocus (over 80 km) events in the middle.

of the hazardous periods derived by both methods are

identical.
In any comparisons between the methods it is
important to remember that the present study does not
use the lunar periodicities, hence our results and those
obtained by [Serafimova and Shirokov, 2012] are inde
pendent. As well, while the excitations due to harmon
ics of the lunar cycle for the Kuril Islands and for Kam
chatka have different phases, the hypothetical harmon
ics of the 17year cycle are less selective.
We now also assess the longterm interaction
between volcanic and seismic activities for the entire
KurilKamchatka region, including its extension off
the eastern coast of Hokkaido, using harmonics with
the periods of 52.8 and 54.0 years identified above.
Figure 5 shows the 52.8year harmonic with a shift
of one quarter period toward the origin of the time axis
from the original phase derived by spectral decomposi
tion, as well as the 54year harmonic of seismic activity
(see Fig. 2). Here we also show the 55.8year harmonic
proposed by [Gusev, 2008] for prediction of shallow
Kamchatka earthquakes. This figure also contains times
of great earthquakes (Table 2). It should be noted that
some events may have been missed for the period before
1900.
We see an excellent fit for most of the 50year har
monics of seismicity and volcanic activity with a shift of
a quarter period. Such a shift serves to indicate different
influences of the hypothetical common factor with a
period of about 50 years: while in the one case its level
matters, in the second the rate of change carries weight.
This fact is important for clarifying the excitation
mechanism.
It is also obvious that 24 of the 30 (80%) earthquakes
that occurred between 1840 and 2012 (with the exclu
sion of double events) (see Table 2) fall into positive
phases of this harmonic. The probability of accidental
appearance of this fact is 0.2% based on the binomial
JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND SEISMOLOGY

law, but the figure may actually be greater owing to clus

tering effects.
The differences between the plots of the 52.8
54.0year and the 55.8year periodicity are sufficiently
large at the end of the time interval considered here and
seem to reflect a deviation of the current phase of
regional activity from that calculated from the lunar
cyclicity [Gusev, 2008] with a likely tuning later on.
The estimation of the phase shift between the behav
iors of volcanic activity and seismicity was also consid
ered in the range of periods from 4.9 to 6.4 years, which
is so important for the prediction of great earthquakes;
this range contains the average return time of great
KurilKamchatka earthquakes (5.0 years), the spectral
peak corresponds to a period of 5.7 years, and the third
harmonic (6.2 years) of the lunar cycle (Fig. 6).
The most stable phase difference between volcanic
activity and seismicity is 1.6 years (volcanic activity also
lags behind seismicity); it occurs around a period of
5.7 years. Nevertheless, the predictive value of this
result is low, because the variations of volcanic activity
are small at this period, while the relationship of the
period to the times of explosive eruptions is not the sub
ject of the present paper. The phase shifts for the other
two spectral peaks are estimated less accurately.
Overall, the above facts corroborate the existing con
cept of an indirect connection between volcanic and
seismic processes in a wide range of time intervals, as
well as refining the character of this relationship. Space
factors seem to play an important part in making the
relationship occur in the form of consistent variations.
CONCLUSIONS
This study presents a method for defining the con
cept of volcanic activity at a conceptual level, as the fre
quency of volcanic occurrences on a large scale. The
results from its application mostly concern the volca
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, years
5
3.5

4
3

1.6

1.0
1
0

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

6.2

6.4
, years

2
Fig. 6. Phase difference between volcanic activity and seismicity (based on KurilKamchatka earthquake data, see Table 2)
for several harmonics in the range of periods T = 56 years.

noes of Kamchatka and the North Kuril Islands, but

they are supposed to be applicable in principle to the
entire KurilKamchatka region. This we can hope to
achieve by virtue of common space factors as a basis for
comparatively shortperiod variations of volcanic activ
ity and because the geodynamic settings are uniform to
a first approximation.
The determination of the periods of cyclic compo
nents shown by volcanic activity is accurate as corrobo
rated by comparison with average world data and by
comparison of the periodograms derived from volcanic
activity and seismicity.
We revealed the fact of decreasing periods in the har
monics of the spectrum of volcanic activity in relation
to relevant hypothetical periods of the external excita
tion, which is the most significant at longer periods.
Comparison of the spectra of volcanic activity and seis
micity revealed that the values of the respective peaks
for volcanic activity are also lower at periods of about or
more than 20 years.
The above facts suggest a hypothesis, viz., both vol
canic activity and seismicity reflect the response of a
complex active earth to external excitation in the form
of a spectrum of harmonics that is in principle different
from the spectrum of excitation factors. The harmonics
of the response and of the excitation have their harmon
ics matched by periodic phase shifts, or tuning of the
former. This approach provides the opportunity to
make use of periods derived by spectral decomposition
that are not as a general case equal to the periods of
known external excitation factors.
The 25.3year harmonic of volcanic activity is the
most significant of all those identified. It is a remarkable
fact that this harmonic was not adequately reflected in
the periodicity of great earthquakes in the region. The
origin of that harmonic remains unknown.

We come to the conclusion that the 2004 volcanic

activity was the greatest for the last 40 years. During
20132023 it is likely to remain in the region of average
values. It should be noted that this forecast is not iden
tical with a forecast of no large eruptions.
The results of the present study revealed a relation
ship between volcanic activity and the hazard of great
earthquakes in the region via the 52.854.0year har
monics. The phase lag between the maxima of the
respective harmonics is 1/4 period, thus indicating an
essentially different mechanism that operates through
some common factor, probably the 55.8year harmonic
of the lunar cycle, to affect volcanism and seismicity.
One distinctive feature of the present study is to
demonstrate considerable influence of the 17year vari
ations, presumably due to the Suns magnetic field, on
the occurrence of great earthquakes, as well as the con
cept of a large scale of such excitation (the KurilKam
chatka region). With respect to this circumstance, data
on the influence of the lunar cycle constitute a good
refining factor.
This study also yielded a forecast of great earth
quakes for the KurilKamchatka region on the basis of
this periodicity. Although we have practically 100% suc
cess based on retrospective data, there is a tradeoff in
the form of a long (75%) alarm time. The latter quantity
can probably be substantially reduced by subdividing
the region into segments with more uniform geody
namic settings and by using other periodicities. The
necessary detail with respect to seismicity can be
achieved by using a large data set for moderatesize
earthquakes. The spectra given in the present paper can
be used in that case as a reference.
Our results furnish a first approximation to warn that
the increased longterm earthquake hazard in the
KurilKamchatka region that has existed since 2000
will last about 15 years from now (see Fig. 5). The most

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dangerous period at present is until February 2016 (see

Fig. 3). This last result is in agreement with the long
term earthquake forecast developed for the Kuril
Kamchatka island arc using Fedotovs method
[Fedotov et al., 2011, 2012]. With respect to the forecast
given by Serafimova and Shirokov [2012], one notes the
following overlapping hazardous intervals: the period
September 2013 to February 2016 that determines the
time interval of a likely great earthquake for the Kurils
and the period August 2015 to February 2016 for Kam
chatka. According to the forecast developed in this
study, the probability of M 7.7 earthquakes in the
entire region becomes smaller by a factor of a few times
(about 5) during the period from March 2016 to June
2017. After that time a period of increased probability
for such events will last until February 2023.
The method proposed here can also be extended to
other volcanically and seismically active regions.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This work was supported by the Far East Branch of
the Russian Academy of Sciences, project 12IP404,
by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research project
110500602, and by the project Reduction of Ecologic
Risks in Energy Industry and Assessment of Hydrocar
bon Reserves in Kamchatskii Krai within a government
assignment (Registration no. 5.3799.2011).
The author thanks academician S.A. Fedotov, Cand.
Sci. (Phys.Math.) V.A. Shirokov, and Cand. Sci.
(Geol.Mineral.) O.A. Girina for very helpful remarks
that brought improvements and substantial additions to
the manuscript, and Cand. Sci. (Geol.Mineral.)
I.F. Delemen who suggested this line of research.
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Translated by A. Petrosyan

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