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Key Words: Reliability, Mean time to failure, exponential time distribution, Inclusion of supplementary variables etc.
----------------------------------------------------------------***------------------------------------------------------------------------1. INTRODUCTION
2. ASSUMPTIONS
The whole system consists of five major parts and these are
named here as:
(i) Subsystem A :
Reservoir, intake gate
(ii) Subsystem B :
Penstock
(iii) Subsystem C :
Turbine
(iv) Subsystem D :
Generator
(v) Subsystem E :
Power house.
The system has been shown in fig -1(a). The subsystem A
takes the water and sends it to subsystem B (Penstock). By
the movement of this water, we rotate the turbine and by
rotation of turbine, generator produces electricity. The so
produced electric power can be stored at power house and
also can further distribute to various territories.
Since, the system under consideration in Non-Markovian,
the author has used supplementary variables to formulate
mathematical model of the system. This model has been
solved further by taking help of Laplace transform.
1 x
etc.
:
:
3,3 u
P0 t
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P1 x, t etc
P3 z, t
Pr {at time t, system is failed due to failure of subsystem A}. Elapsed repair
time lies within x, x .
Pr {at time t, system is degraded due to failure of any one component of
subsystem C}. Elapsed repair time lies within z, z .
P3,1 x, t etc
Ps
M.T.T.F.
:
:
Si j
Di ( j )
1 S ( j)/ j,
i and j .
P2 2 ( y, t )2 ( y)
P4 (m, t )
P0 (t )
4 (m)
P1 ( x, t )
1 ( x)
h1
h (k )
5 (n)
Ph (k , t )
P5 (n, t )
3 ( z )
h2
P3 ( z, t )
P3, 2 ( y, t )
2 ( y)
1 ( x)
5 (n)
3,3 (u )
P3,1 ( x, t )
P3,5 (n, t )
P3,3 (u, t )
4 (m)
P3, 4 (m, t )
Fig-1(b): Transition-state diagram
States:
Failed
Good
Degraded
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4. FORMULATIONOFMATHEMATICAL MODEL
Using continuity argument and limiting procedure, we obtain the following set of difference-differential equations, governing the
behaviour of considered system, discrete in space and continuous in time:
(1)
5
dt i h1 P0 t P1 x, t 1 x dx P2 y, t 2 y dy P3 z, t 3 z dz
i 1
0
0
0
z t i h2 3 ( z ) P3 ( z, t ) 0
i 1
k t h (k ) Ph (k , t ) 0
Boundary conditions are:
Pi (0, t ) i P0 (t ) ,i = 1, 2, 4 and 5
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(2)
(8)
, i = 1, 2, 4 and 5
(9)
P3,3 (0, t ) 3 P3 (t )
(10)
Ph (0, t ) h1 P0 (t ) h2 P3 (t )
(11)
(12)
1
B( s)
D ( s)
P i ( s) i i
for i = 1, 2, 4 and 5
B( s )
A( s)
P 3 ( s)
B( s)
A( s) Di ( s)
P 3, i ( s) i
for i = 1, 2, 4 and 5
B( s )
P 0 ( s)
(13)
(14)
(15)
(16)
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P 3,3 ( s)
3 A( s) D3,3 ( s)
(17)
B( s )
1
h1 h2 A(s)Dh (s)
B( s )
5
3 D3 s i h2
i 1
where, A( s )
5
5
1 i S i ( s) 3 S 3 ( s ) D3 s i h2
i 1
i 1
P h ( s)
(18)
(19)
and
(20)
3 A( s) 1 S 1 ( s) 2 S 2 ( s) 4 S 4 ( s) 5 S 5 ( s) S 3 s i h2
i 1
1
s
(21)
s 0
obtain the following long-run behaviour of considered system from equations (13) through (18):
(22)
1
B (0)
M
Pi i i ;for i = 1, 2, 4 and 5
B(0)
A(0)
P3
B(0)
P0
P3,i
i A(0) M i
(23)
(24)
(25)
;for i = 1, 2, 4 and 5
B (0)
A(0) M 3,3
P3,3 3
B(0)
1
h1 h2 A(0)M h
Ph
B (0)
(26)
(27)
3 1 S 3 i h2
i 1
5
5
3 h2 i 3 S 3 i h2
i 1
i 1
B (0) B( s)
ds
s 0
th
and M i S i (0) Mean time to repair i failure.
where,
A(0)
(28)
(29)
(30)
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7. PARTICULAR CASE:
When all repairs follow exponential time distribution
In this case, setting
S i j
j i ,
for all i and j, in equations (13) through (18), we obtain the following L.T. of
P 0 ( s)
1
E ( s)
P i ( s)
(31)
E ( s)s i
F ( s)
P 3 ( s)
E ( s)
i F ( s)
P 3,i ( s)
;
E ( s)s i
3 F ( s)
P 3,3 ( s)
E ( s)(s 3,3 )
and
P h ( s)
where,
For i = 1, 2, 4 and 5
(32)
(33)
For i = 1, 2, 4 and 5
(34)
(35)
1
h1 h2 F (s) 1
E ( s)
(s h )
F (s)
(36)
3
5
5
s i h2 3 i i 3 3
i 1
i 1 s i s 3
(37)
5
1
2
4
s 1
3 h1
s 1 s 2 s 4 s 5
3 F ( s) 3,3
h
h1 h2 F ( s)
s h
s 3,3
and E ( s)
3 F ( s) 1 1 2 2 4 4 5 5
5
s 1 s 2 s 4 s 5 s h
i 2 3
i 1
(38)
R( s) s i h2
i 1
i 1
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1
5
i 1
(40)
h1
3
1
P up ( s )
1
5
5
s i h1 s i h2
i 1
i 1
takinginverseLaplacetransform,we
5
5
3
3
1
exp
.
h
t
exp
.
i h2 t (41)
i
1
h2 h1
h2 h1
i 1
i 1
Also, Pdown (t ) 1 Pup (t ) (42)
obta Pup (t )
3.44
3.38
3.36
3.34
3.32
3.3
3.28
3.26
3.24
0
0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.006 0.007 0.008 0.009 0.01
h1---->
1.2
Pup(t) ---->
Reliability Vs Time
0.8
0.6
0.4
1.2
0.2
R(t) ---->
0.8
10
11
t ---->
0.6
0.4
0.2
REFERENCES
0
1
6
t ---->
10
11
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Volume: 03 Issue: 01 | Jan-2014, Available @ http://www.ijret.org
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Volume: 03 Issue: 01 | Jan-2014, Available @ http://www.ijret.org
301