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RISK ANALYSIS
FOR ROAD TUNNELS
Comit technique AIPCR C3.3 Exploitation des tunnels routiers
ISBN : 2-84060-202-4
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A propos de lAIPCR
Statements
LAssociation mondiale de la Route (AIPCR) est une association but non lucratif fonde en 1909
pour favoriser la coopration internationale et les progrs dans le domaine de la route et du transport
routier.
The World Road Association (PIARC) is a nonprot organisation established in 1909 to improve
international co-operation and to foster progress in the eld of roads and road transport.
Ltude faisant lobjet de ce rapport a t dnie dans le Plan stratgique 2004-2007 approuv par
le Conseil de lAIPCR dont les membres sont des reprsentants des gouvernements nationaux
membres. Les membres du Comit technique responsable de ce rapport ont t nomms par les
gouvernements nationaux membres pour leurs comptences spciques.
The study that is the subject of this report was dened in the PIARC Strategic Plan 2004 2007
approved by the Council of the World Road Association, whose members and representatives of the
member national governments. The members of the Technical Committee responsible for this report
were nominated by the member national governments for their special competences.
Les opinions, constatations, conclusions et recommandations exprimes dans cette publication sont
celles des auteurs et ne sont pas ncessairement celles de la socit/organisme auquel ils appartiennent.
Any opinions, ndings, conclusions and recommendations expressed in this publication are those of
the authors and do not necessarily reect the views of their parent organizations or agencies.
N ISBN : 2-84060-202-4
This report is available from the internet site of the World Road Association (PIARC)
http://www.piarc.org
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This report has been prepared by the Working Group 2 Management of Road Tunnel Safety of
the Technical Committee C3.3 Road Tunnel Operation of the World Road Association PIARC. It has
been approved by this Committee.
Ce rapport a t prpar par le groupe de travail n2 Gestion de la scurit dans les tunnels routiers
du Comit technique 3.3 Exploitation des Tunnels routiers de lAssociation mondiale de la Route
The translation into French of the original version was produced by Frederic Walet (France).
Le groupe de travail n 2 tait anim par Rudolf HRHAN (Autriche) et son secrtaire tait Alain
JEANNERET (Suisse).
Working Group No. 2 was led by Rudolf Hrhan (Austria) and its secretary was Alain Jeanneret
(Suisse).
Finn-Harald Amundsen (Norway) and Prof. Pavel Pribyl (Czech Republic) were responsible within
the Technical Committee for the quality control of the production of this report.
Le Comit technique tait prsid par Didier LACROIX (France). Pierre SCHMITZ (Belgique), Alan
WEST (Royaume-Uni) et Manuel ROMANA RUIZ (Espagne) taient respectivement les secrtaires
francophone, anglophone et hispanophone.
The Technical Committee was chaired by Didier LACROIX (France). Pierre SCHMITZ (Belgium),
Alan WEST (UK) and Manuel ROMANA RUIZ (Spain) were respectively the French, English and
Spanish-speaking secretaries.
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SOMMAIRE
w w w. p i a r c . o r g
w w w. p i a r c . o r g
RSUMN ................................................................................................................................... 14
INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................... 22
1.
CONTENTS
SUMMARY ......................
15
INTRODUCTION ...........
23
1.
RISK ANALYSIS BASIC PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICAL APPLICATION
IN THE RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS .................................................................................. 29
1.1. WHAT IS RISK ANALYSIS AND WHAT CAN BE ACCOMPLISHED
BY USING RISK ANALYSIS? ....................................................................................................... 29
1.2. IMPLEMENTATION OF RISK ANALYSIS IN THE RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS ............. 33
2.
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3.
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4.
4.
(TuRisMo) .................................................................................................................... 74
4.1.1. Approche ........................................................................................................... 74
4.1.2. Rsultats de lanalyse des risques et stratgie de lvaluation des risques ......... 76
4.1.3. Champ et limites dapplication ............................................................................ 76
4.1.4. tude de cas ...................................................................................................... 78
4.2.
4.3.
4.4.
4.5.
4.6.
5.
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2.
3.
4.
5.
ITALIE : ANALYSE DES RISQUES DANS LES TUNNELS ROUTIERS ........................ 208
5.1. Dfinition du problme ........................................................................................ 208
5.2. Description du systme tunnel ........................................................................... 212
5.3. Analyse quantitative probabiliste des risques ...................................................... 214
5.4. Analyse par arbre dvnements ........................................................................ 216
5.5. Conclusions ...................................................................................................... 222
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6.
6.
7.
12
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7.1.
7.2.
7.3.
7.4.
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RSUM
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Lanalyse des risques est un outil important qui peut tre utilis an damliorer
et doptimiser la scurit dans les tunnels routiers. Bien que la probabilit quun
incident majeur se produise dans un tunnel soit faible, les consquences dun tel
vnement peuvent savrer lourdes de consquences en termes de victimes,
de dgts occasionns la structure et aux quipements du tunnel, ainsi quen
termes dimpact sur lconomie du transport. A titre dexemple, lincendie dans
le tunnel du Mont Blanc, en 1999, a cot la vie 39 personnes et a entran
sa fermeture pendant 3 ans, avec des pertes conomiques estimes environ
300 millions deuros.
Risk analysis is an important tool which can be used to help improve and optimise
the safety of road tunnels. Although the likelihood of major tunnel incidents is
low, the consequences can be severe in terms of casualties, damage to tunnel
structures and equipment, and the impact on the transport economy. For example,
the re in the Mont Blanc tunnel in 1999 claimed 39 lives, and led to its closure
for 3 years and economic losses of about 300 million euros.
Risk analysis methods were initially developed to assess the safety of potentially
dangerous plants and processes in the nuclear, chemical and petrochemical sectors.
The methods have been adapted and applied to road tunnels. Risk analysis is now
explicitly required by the European Directive 2004/54/EC, on minimum safety
requirements for road tunnels in the Trans-European Road Network, which was
published in April 2004 [15].
Lanalyse des risques requiert lidentication des dangers ainsi que lestimation
de la probabilit et des consquences inhrentes chaque danger. Les risques
sont dtermins par le produit de leur probabilit par leurs consquences.
Une fois analyss, les risques doivent tre valus et, si leur niveau est jug
inacceptable, ils doivent alors tre traits en consquence (rduction des risques
en introduisant des mesures de scurit complmentaires).
Risk analysis involves the identication of hazards and the estimation of the
probability and consequences of each hazard. The risks are determined from the
product of their probability and consequences. Once analysed, the risks need to
be evaluated and, if unacceptable, then they need to be treated in some way (risk
reduction by additional safety measures).
A wide range of qualitative and quantitative methods are available for each part
of the process. A complete methodology for risk assessment (overall process
of risk analysis and risk evaluation) can be developed by combining different
methods for risk analysis, risk evaluation and risk reduction. The applicability of
a particular methodology depends on the characteristics of the particular tunnel
application, the data available and the specic objectives and requirements for
undertaking a risk assessment.
The report presents two families of suitable approaches for the risk assessment
of road tunnels:
une approche base sur des scnarios dans laquelle un ensemble donn de
scnarios pertinents est analyse en termes de frquence et/ou consquences.
Lestimation du risque se fait sparment pour chaque scnario ;
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Il existe diffrents types de critres de risque pour mener bien une valuation
des risques (procdure visant dterminer si un niveau de risque acceptable
est obtenu). Ceux-ci comprennent les apprciations dexperts, des critres lis
aux scnarios (par exemple des valeurs seuil de probabilits doccurrence des
scnarios ou de temps dvacuation ncessaire pour atteindre un lieu sr), le
risque individuel (par exemple la probabilit par anne de dcs dune personne
donne qui est expose un risque), et le risque socital (par exemple le nombre
moyen de morts dans le tunnel par an ou une courbe frquence- nombre de
dcs F-N). Le choix des critres retenir dpend du cas trait. Des critres
quantitatifs de risque peuvent tre adopts en tant que seuils en valeur absolue
(par exemple un systme sera considr comme sr si la valeur du risque du
systme est infrieure la valeur seuil prdnie), ou pour des comparaisons
relatives (par exemple la comparaison entre diffrentes mesures de scurit ou
la comparaison dun systme donn avec un systme de rfrence en matire
de scurit).
For the purpose of risk evaluation (procedure to determine whether the tolerable
risk has been achieved), several different types of risk criteria are available. These
criteria include expert judgement, scenario related criteria (e.g. threshold values
for scenario probabilities or escape time to a place of safety), individual risk (e.g.
probability of death per year for a specic person exposed to a risk) and societal
risk (e.g. expected number of fatalities in the tunnel per year or a frequencynumber of fatalities (FN) curve). The choice of which criteria to apply depends
on the application. Quantitative risk criteria can be adopted as absolute threshold
values (e.g. a system is safe if the relevant risk value of the system is lower than the
dened threshold value) or for relative comparisons (e.g. comparison of different
safety measures or comparison of a system to a safe reference system).
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All the presented methods exhibit specic advantages and disadvantages, but
none can claim to be the most suitable in practical use in the context of road
tunnel safety management. The most appropriate approach should be selected
by considering the respective advantages and disadvantages in the context of
a specic situation. The selection should reect the nature of the problem, the
required depth of assessment and the available resources. It has to be taken into
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The ndings highlight clearly that the possibilities for the harmonisation of methods
of risk analyses for road tunnels are limited. The problems to be investigated and
the national characteristics, regulations and laws are so different that one unique
method cannot cover all relevant issues in an adequate way.
Experience shows that the question of risk evaluation, and the denition of what
level of risk is acceptable, is a signicant and debatable part of risk management.
In this context, an evaluation of the different aspects of risk has to be included. In
the framework of this report the question of risk evaluation has only been treated
from the point of view of methods, to demonstrate which ways of risk evaluation
are feasible given a specic method of risk analysis being used. The problems,
possibilities and restrictions related to different strategies of risk evaluation are
not discussed. These aspects should be addressed in more detail in the future.
The report ends by presenting the following recommendations for the practical
use of risk analysis:
noubliez pas que quelle que soit la mthode choisie, il sagit toujours dun
modle plus ou moins rducteur des conditions relles. La mthode ne pourra
jamais prdire le droulement effectif dun vnement mais peut fournir une
aide la dcision, sur la base dlments rationnels et comparables ;
la mthode doit tre choisie pour rpondre un problme donn. Le prsent
rapport prsente une vue densemble de mthodes qui ont fait leurs preuves
pour diffrents problmes ;
be aware that whatever method you choose, you are always using a
model which is a more or less major simplification of the real conditions. The method can never predict the course of a real event but helps
you to make decisions on a sound and comparable basis;
select the best method available for a specific problem. The present
report provides a survey of well-tried methods for various problems;
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lors du choix de la mthode utiliser pour lanalyse des risques, il est important
de considrer la manire dont les rsultats seront valus, car la mthode
danalyse des risques et la stratgie dvaluation des risques ne sont pas indpendantes ;
dans la mesure du possible, il est prfrable dutiliser pour les mthodes quantitatives des donnes spcifiques au cas trait ; si de telles donnes ne sont pas
disponibles, il est ncessaire de vrifier au moins lorigine des donnes (cest
dire de sassurer que les conditions concernant linfrastructure, le trafic, etc.
sont similaires au cas tudi). Certains modles de risques peuvent intgrer
des caractristiques particulires qui ne sappliquent pas tous les tunnels ;
ainsi, il est essentiel que lanalyse des risques ne soit ralise que par des
experts possdant lexprience ncessaire et comprenant bien les mthodes
quils utilisent ;
il est important de noter que les rsultats dune analyse quantitative des risques
doivent tre interprts comme donnant des ordres de grandeur et non pas des
chiffres prcis. Les modles de risque produisent invitablement des rsultats
imprcis. Lvaluation des risques par comparaison relative (par exemple entre
diffrentes mesures de scurit ou entre ltat existant du tunnel et un tat de
rfrence) peut permettre de rduire lincertitude des conclusions.
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when selecting a method for a risk analysis, you should also consider
how to evaluate the results since the method of risk analysis and the
strategy of risk evaluation are not independent;
whenever possible, use specific data for quantitative methods. If specific
data is unavailable, at least check the origin of the data you intend to use
(are the conditions relating to infrastructure, traffic, etc. similar to your
situation?). Be aware that specific features may be included in a risk
model that are not valid for your tunnel;
for these reasons, risk analysis should only be performed by experts with
sufficient experience and understanding of the methods they use;
be aware that the result of a quantitative risk analysis must be interpreted as an order of magnitude and not as precise number. Risk models
inevitably deliver fuzzy results, so risk evaluation by relative comparison (e.g. of various safety measures or of an existing state to a reference
state of a tunnel) may improve the robustness of conclusions drawn.
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