Civil Aero-engine health management integrating with life prediction and maintenance decision-making

Xiang Rong, Hongfu Zuo, Zhixiong Chen

College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics
No.29 Yudao Street, Nanjing, 210016, P. R. China
Phone: 086-025-84895772-803
E-mail: rongxiang@nuaa.edu.cn

Abstract - Appropriate logistic operation, maintenance

and support are important for civil aero-engines in terms of
safety, reliability and economy. Engine health management
is an important method to reduce the maintenance and
support costs, which has generated an increasing interest
among researchers. In this paper, according to the nature
of civil aero-engine operation and maintenance, the concept
of civil aero-engine health management is introduced, and
some fundamental methodologies are studied in detail. And
based on the reliability modeling theory for repairable
systems, some methods were proposed using proportional
intensity mode, which combined reliability and condition
monitoring data. These methods accomplished engine
optimal preventive maintenance interval and removal
decision making, time on wing (TOW) predicting and
controlling by collecting actual data based on the engine
age and operating conditions. This analysis includes an
example of a CF6-80C2 engine fleet application in an
airline, illustrating the decision making and prediction
accuracy of the model comparing to actual removal events.
Case study results showed that these health management
methods were helpful for engineers in airlines to control
engine maintenance actions and TOW, thereby decreased
fault risk and maintenance costs.
I. INTRODUCTION
Because of the development of the technologies and
theories of condition monitoring, fault diagnostics, and
maintenance decision-making, Condition Based Maintenance
(CBM) policy is improved continually, and is applied in
industry areas of power, aviation, shipping, nuclear power, and
so on. Especially in the area of aviation, according the concept
of RCM or MSG-3 of FAA [1, 2], CBM is viewed as a
maintenance mode or a policy, and is used during the design,
operation and maintenance management of some military or
civil aircrafts. Furthermore, Engine Health Management
(EHM), Engine Life Management, and maintenance
decision-making optimization are the primary content of
engine CBM policy whose foundation is EHM, which has run
to Prognostic and Health Management (PHM) [3]. About these
fields many researchers have done much work, however these
researches are mainly about engine condition monitoring and
fault diagnostic [4-7], and engine life prediction only considers
single parameter such as engine Exhaust Gas Temperature
(EGT) [8]. Moreover conditions are separated from maintenance
decision making, and practicing CBM management software
are very few.
Therefore after studying the engine EHM theory and its
key methods, based on the theory of repairable system
reliability modeling, this paper provided some feasible
methods including optimal engine preventive maintenance
interval decision making, engine removal decision making, and
engine Time On Wing (TOW) prediction. These methods will
help engineers in airlines to accomplish civil aero-engine
maintenance management work such as Life Limited Parts

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(LLP) tracking, shop visit decision making and prediction, and

soon.

II.

CIVIL AERO-ENGINE HEALTH

MANAGEMENT CONCEPT
For civil aero-engine carriers, the engine management
should emphasize operation and maintenance. So based on
on-board systems provided by engine OEM and off-board
systems provided by airlines, condition monitoring, diagnosis,
prognosis, maintenance decision-making, and resource
scheduling are realized, which is the concept of civil
aero-engine health management. And the detailed functions of
EHM for civil aero-engine are monitoring & diagnosis, time on
wing (TOW) prediction and control, maintenance
decision-making, and resource scheduling (see in Fig. 1). In
this paper, TOW prediction and control and maintenance
decision-making for civil aero-engine will be discussed
especially.

Aircraft

/<2

Aeroengine

//~

Diagnosis

Prognosis

Maintenance
optimization
& decisionmaking
Scheduling
optimizaion

{
Operation and maintenance task planning
(condition based maintenance, CBM)

Maintenance resource scheduling

Fig. 1 the functions of aero-engine EHM

The aero-engine maintenance factors are more complex [9],
which are as follow:
(1) performance deterioration;
(2) vibration overrun;
(3) irregular oil and debris;
(4) cracks and erosions;
(5) Foreign Object Damage (FaD);
(6) Airworthiness Directive (AD);
(7) Service Bulletin (SB);
(8) Life Limited Part (LLP);
(9) the deadline of return (only for rental engines);
(10) spare engine number.
Where, there are many failure reasons leading to

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performance deterioration (PD), such as wear, fatigue, erosions,

distortion, and so on. Additionally, FOD is an accidental factor,
and the rental engine is a separate one. Hence, for civil
aero-engines in airlines, there're a lot of factors of engine
exterior operation environment and internal damage effecting
maintenance actions. So using aero-engine CBM policy,
maintenance decision can be made based on the condition
monitoring information. There're two kinds of maintenance
actions which are preventive maintenance, PM and corrective
maintenance, CM. PM can be done in line in order to decrease
fault risk, such like cleaning, borescope and check. CM, also
regarded as FBM, is to recover the system after failures, such
like scheduled or unscheduled removal and shop visits.
So the relations among engine conditions, times and
maintenance actions are shown in Fig. 2. TOW, also called
time since installation (TSI), is the continuing operation
interval from the installation to the present operating time point
at this on wing, whose unit is flight hour (FH) or flight cycle
(FC). Time since new (TSN) is the interval from the new to the
present operating time point. In Fig. 1, TOWI and TOW2 are
times at engine removals time points, and TOW3 is the time at
a certain operation time point. TSN1, TSN2 and TSN3 can be
understood similarly.

=
.s
.....
:a
=
e

Acceptance

(7) The criterion of maintenance decision making is

minimizing fault intensity or total maintenance cost.
(8) The objects of maintenance decision making are
threshold, CM time point and optimal PM interval.

III.

PROPORTIONAL INTENSITY (PI) MODEL

The theory about reliability and maintenance modeling for

repairable systems mainly involves renewal process and
Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP). In the latter theory,
proportional intensity model is a typical method [10], which can
link system life to condition variates after dealing with
condition data comprised by different types, dimensions and
values. And this model is well used in reliability fields of
shipping, electronics and military [11]. Since the data about civil
aero-engine condition monitoring, maintenance and reliability
have similar characters, PI model can be utilized to model the
data of engine ages and condition variates in order to analyze
engine reliability, maintenance actions and TOW better.

A. Reliability modeling of repairable systems

The failures of repairable systems can be looked as NHPP.
Then the intensity function of system failure is defmed as
. P{N(t + I1t) - N(t) ~ 11 Z(t)} dE(N(t)) (1)
v(t) = 11m
=- - M~

Where N(t) is the observed number of failures in (0, t] and

H(t) is the history of the process up to time t.
One important properties of the NHPP is

=
.Q

P{N(t + At) - N(t) = n I Z(t)} = [,u,(At)r exp(-,u,(At

~TOW1-~~

Where J.l,(t1.t)

TOW3

fM v(u)du

n!

(2)

is the average number of

failures in [t, t+ ~t].

So PI model is defmed as

"",--TSNI

Time t(h)
Fig. 2 Time on wing of aero-engine
Therefore, after analyzing civil engine fleet removals
history data, Weibull proportional intensity model (PI model)
can be established based on the operation history and multi
condition variates under CBM policy. And optimal PM interval
can be made in terms of minimizing the expected maintenance
cost per unit time. The engine removal control limit can be
made in terms of appropriate fault intensity. At last engine
TOW can be predicted by the factors combining the effects of
fault intensity, AD/SB and LLP.
Before modeling, some assumptions are given:
(1) The whole engine is regarded as single-unit.
(2) The fault intensity function due to engine performance
deterioration is increasing.
(3) The inspection information is perfect.
(4) Two types of maintenance actions, PM and CM.
(5) Only considering the cost ofPMs and CMs.
(6) CM is perfect maintenance, and PM is minimal
maintenance.

978-1-4244-4758-9110/$26.00 2010 IEEE

vet I X(t)) = vo(t)exp(y X(t))

(3)
Where, vo(t) is called as baseline intensity function, also
looked as hazard rate; )' = [y], Y2, ... Yp] is the coefficients vector
of the covariates X(t)=[X](t), X 2(t), ..., Xp(t)]T. When vo(t) is
known, the model is parametric PI model, otherwise the model
is semi-parametric PI model. In the former situation, the
parameters of baseline intensity function and the coefficients
vector of covariates can be estimated simultaneously, and the
accuracy of estimation is better. So the parametric PI model is
selected.
B. Parameters estimation of Weibull PI model
(1) The form of Weibull PI model
For aero-engine, vo(t) is distributed as Weibull form. The
common form of this parametric Weibull PI model is given by
equation

v(t I X(t)) =

f3 (!"")P-I exp(yX(t))

(4)

1] 1]

Where, f3 is the scale parameter; 11 is the shape parameter;

)' is the coefficients vector. They can be estimated by

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maximized likelihood estimation (MLE).

(2) The formation of likelihood function
The common form of likelihood function is:

~M =1JCP~;;CCM J

II ftt; {3, 1], 1)8; R(t

L(f3, 1],1)=

(5)

=II v(t ;{3,1],1 )II R(t

j ;

j=1

The former estimated parameters can be iterated in this

equation, so the optimal PM interval decision is made.

{3, 1], 1)1-8;

j=1

{3, 1], 1)

V CIVIL AERO-ENGINE REMOVAL

DECISION-MAKING AND TOW PREDICTION

j=1

Where, t is the time of the even; J; is the event indicator

(J; = 0 if the failed event has occurred and J; = 1 if the lifetime
is right-censored); q is the number of failed events. For engines,
removals due to performance deterioration are the real failure
events. The removal data caused by LLP, AD/SB, FaD, etc are
right-censored data.
When the covariates are time-dependent, the logarithm
likelihood function is:

{3
q
t.
InL(1],{3,1)=qln(-) + In( ...!... )p-l
1]
;=1
1]
q
p
n 1{3 S
p
+LLYkXik(t)- L J-(_)P-l exp(L
;=1 k=1
}=1 0 1] 1]
k=1

(6)

(.

-,x,(s))ds

(3) The calculation of MLE

After calculating the first and second derivatives of the
logarithm likelihood function with respect to (J, 1], and 1, the
estimated values can be solved. However, when the parameters
are too many to be estimated by analytic method, some
numerical methods can be used, such as Newton-Raphson
iterative method and genetic algorithm tool box in Matlab. The
convergence rule is the margin between two adjacent vectors is
less than a fixed vector. The initial value can be chosen by the
features of systems.

A.

OPTIMAL PM INTERVAL DECISION-MAKING

If civil aero-engine still operates on wing, some PM

actions can be done. Let the cost of engine PM is CPM, the cost
of eM is CCM, and the total maintenance cost is C. So the
optimal PM interval TpM can be made in terms of minimizing
the expected maintenance cost per unit time [12l.
The expected cost per unit time over the duration of the
next PM interval is as follow

E(C)= CpM +CCMJ1(t )

frkXk =lnv(tIX)-ln(~)-(p-l)ln(~)

B.

PM

(9)

1]13

When fJ> 1, after differentiation and calculation of function

minimization, in order to minimize the left of the last equation,
TpMis given

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TOW prediction due to performance deterioration

Thus, the engine condition trend and the control limit of

removal have become the two key factors related to the TOW
prediction. A lot of engine condition monitoring data can be
acquired for TOW prediction, which is a time serial. In this
paper, the linear regression method is chosen to calculate the
engine condition trend according to the features of engine
performance parameters and flight leg. The regression equation
is given by:

{kl+b1
LYkZk = k2t+b2
k=l
k3t+b3
A

tE[0,2000]
t E (2000,4000]

(12)

t E (4000,00]

Then the engine TOW prediction value due to

performance deterioration, TOWp , is the solution of equations
set including Eq. (11) and (12)

B.2

Then

Civil aero-engine TOW prediction

(8)

(11)

1]

This equation reflect the connection between condition

variates and the engine TOW. For a given fault intensity v*,
used in the Eq. (11), a logarithm curve is shown in the Fig. 4,
whose abscissa is t, and coordinate is the left of the Eq. (11).
The curve is called the control limit of engine removal under
this intensity. This curve is also maintenance threshold, which
integrate the conditions and reliability and is different with
traditional linear threshold. The current engine condition
covariates multiplying the coefficients can be drawn as a point
in the Fig. 4. If the point is below the control limit curve, the
engine can still operate on wing; otherwise, if the point is upon
or above the curve, the engine should be removed and shopped
visit due to performance deterioration. It's obvious that a set of
control limit curves can be calculated under different
intensities.

(7)

Where p(t) is the average number of failures in t. For

Weibull form function

+ CCM t P- 1

1]

k=l

E(C) = C

Civil aero-engine removal decision making

The estimated parameters are iterated in the Eq. (6), which

can be switch to the other form as

B.1
I~

(10)

The constrains of engine TOW

(1) The time limit of AD/SBs

AD/SBs, released by airworthiness authorities or engine
manufacturers, prescribe the most allowable operating times,
after which the engine has to be removed for maintenance. This
time limit is given by:

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TAD = min{TAl'TA2,,TAi'}
(13)
Where, TAD is the minimal operating time limit affected by
all AD/SBs; TAi is allowable operating time of the ith AD/SB
(i=l, .. . m); m is the number ofAD/SBs in this engine.
(2) The time limit of LLPs
The LLPs in an engine have the most operating lives
defmed by the inherent designed reliabilities of them. These
life limits data can be obtained from engines operator, which
are also offered by the engine manufacturer. The fmallife limit
ofLLP is given by:

~LP = min{~l'TL2''~i'}
(14)
Where, TLLP is the least life limit affected by all LLPs in
an engine; TLi is the allowable operating life of the ith LLP
(i=l, .. .n); n is the number ofLLPs in the engine.
B.3

independent ones, so they are selected for predicting TOWp ,

which matches the fact that the EGT and vibration are two
important aspects of engine condition monitoring. After MLE,
the parameters are

{3= 2.88024

= 4767.08053
Y DEGT = -0.05933

ij

TOW

min {TOWp ' TAD' TLLP }

(15)

( IX)
2.88024 (
t
Y88024
t
= 4767.08053 4767.08053

(16)

exp( -0.05933XDEGT -1.91282Xz VB2R )

A.

The optimal PM interval decision making

The estimated parameters are iterated in Eq. (10). Giving

TpM

= 4767.08053 (

) Yz'. 88024
CpM
1.88024CcM

(17)

This equation reflect the effect between TpM and cost of

PM and CM.

Where TOWp is TOW due to engine performance

deterioration; TAD is the time limit of LLPs; TLLP is the time
limit ofLLPs.

300 , . . . . - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ,
250

VI.

= -1.91282

The equation of PI model is:

The final prediction

Therefore the engine TOW is a time with respect to the

conditions, historical failure records, and reliability, etc. The
eventual TOW prediction value can be calculated by

YZVB2R

200

~ 150
~

CASE STUDY AND RESULT ANALYSIS

The historical data including 45 removal records from

1999 to 2004 about engine CF6-80C2 in an airline are selected,
which include the values of conditions parameters at the
removal time points (see Table 1). These parameters are engine
serial number (SN), the event indicator (s), and performance
parameters such as EGT deviation from baseline (DEGT), fuel
flow deviation from baseline (GWFM), core speed deviation
from baseline (GPCN25), delta oil pressure (DPOIL), vibration
of fan (ZVBIF), vibration of core (ZVB2R), EGT margin with
adjustment (EGTHDM), and sea level outside air temperature
limit (SOATL).

100
50

L . . - - _ - - - - - - 1_ _------I..._ _-----l.-_ _------'---_ _-----'

0.000 I

0.0002

0.0003

0.0004

0.0005

Fig. 3 Cost rate and preventive maintenance interval

Decision-making 1: Let the cost rate is a=CPM/CCM.
Generally, CPMCCM, and that's aI. In Fig. 3, we can fmd
that if CPM is higher, TpM will greater. And if CCM is higher, TpM
will fewer.
350 , . . . . - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ,

Table 1 Engine removal history records

SN

149

TOW/(h)
7095
J
1
DEGT
9.122
GWFM
3.372
GPCN25
1.783
DPOIL
6.888
ZVBIF
0.314
ZVB2R
0.458
EGTHDM 9.278
SLOATL 32.746

300

243

594

271

7801
1
24.369
4.747
2.092
8.73
0.028
0.518
-0.162
29.956

7820
0
4.87
2.238
1.479
-4.299
0.163
0.871
1.509
30.447

3282
0
22.688
7.579
2.123
-1.071
0.645
0.992
-10.376
26.997

250
~

..=

100
50

o
o

According to the correlation of the performance

parameters in the Table 1, DEGT and ZVB2R are the most

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200

~ 150

200

400

600
CPM/($)

800

1000

Fig. 4 Preventive maintenance interval effected by cost

Decision-making 2: In Fig. 4, curve 1 is when CCM =150
M$, curve 1 is when CCM =250 M$, and curve 1 is when CCM
=350 M$. So it will be found that if CPM is fixed and CCM
increases, then will TpM decrease, and if CCM is fixed and CPM
increases, then will TpM increase.
B. The civil aero-engine removal decision making

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After substituting the removal records in Table 1 into Eq.

(16), a set of fault intensity value can be calculated.
0.00048033 is chosen conservatively and substituted into Eq.
(11), then the removal control limit is offered by:
p

= IrkXk = 15.705 -1.88024ln(t)

(18)

k=l

In Fig. 4, curve 1 is the civil aero-engine removal control

limit. The No. 271 engine condition covariates of DEGT and
ZVB2R multiplying the coefficients can be drawn as points in
the Fig. 5. If a point is below the control limit curve, the engine
can still operate on wing; otherwise, if a point is upon or above
the curve, the engine should be removed due to performance
deterioration. The other engines can be decision made and
analyzed similarly.

6405

2.51923

-2.06229

6407

2.14771

0.8

-1.65768

6409

1.70453

-2.01395

6411

20.67651

-3.13956

D. Civil aero-engine TOW control

Although TOW prediction considering engine condition
monitoring and reliability data is more precise, the time
constrains are still calculated, such as LLP, AD and SB. So the
fmal TOW is decided by Eq. (15). And the civil aero-engine
TOW control can be shown in Fig. 6.

2
Q

.9
~

:.a
Q

"'0
0

..s=
eI)
.~

-1

"a
~

0
~

-2

t/

TOWp by PI model

,;

tP

AD or SB constrains
TOW control points

TOWp

time

2000

4000

6000

8000

t(h)

Fig. 5

1 - - - - - - - - 1 )---+--t~--I--___I_----() - - - -. .

)I(

~ ~~ ~F~~

-3

LLP time limit

The Engine Removal Control Limit and TOW

prediction

C.

The civil aero-engine TOW prediction

Some time series of No. 271, monitoring times are more
than 4000 flight hours, are listed in Table 2. Among them, for
last 50 points, the interval of adjacent two points is one flight
cycle; for other former points, the interval of adjacent two
points is one month. Weighting the coefficients, the condition
points are modeled by the linear regression equation:
y = 0.0003971 - 4.432307
(1)4000)
(19)
The solution of equations set including Eq. (18) and (19)
is the prediction value due to performance deterioration, TOWp
The values of TOWp of other engines are also calculated like
No. 271 engine.
The calculation of constrains caused by AD/SBs and LLPs
is simple, so the results are listed in Table 3 directly.
Table 2: the trend of conditions about No. 271 engine (section)
Monitoring
Total weighted
DEGT
ZVB2R
time x(h)
condition y
3998
9.40435
1.13246
-2.72415
4213

8.21106

1.16929

-2.7238

4428

11.77006

1.12546

-2.85111

4644

9.84282

1.13423

-2.75355

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Fig.6 Civil aero-engine TOW control

Control method 1: The TOW should be extended, which
means TOW control points in Fig. 6 are moved forward right
side of the time axis.
Control method 2: The TOW points should be closed in a
narrow interval at the time axis in Fig. 6, which means an
opportunistic maintenance policy can be done and achieved
performance restoration or LLP replacement after a same
engine removal.

E. Results and analysis

Civil aero-engine health management have to consider
conditions, failure history, reliability, maintenance cost, and so
on. Based on the previous methods, CBM decision making and
TOW prediction for an engine fleet are completed. The results
are shown on Table 3, which show that:
1) If the engine is removed for the compelling reason of
LLP or AD/SB, the time limit of LLP or AD/SB is the
maintenance decision making time;
2) As to the shop visit due to performance deterioration,
which is effected by many parameters, the maintenance
decision making is hard. So using PI model, maintenance time
is flexible in terms of fault intensity and maintenance cost;
3) In order to enhance the accuracy of the predicting
method of TOW for aero-engine, more time series of
performance parameters are needed for more accurate linear
regression model, and the information of the LLPs and AD/SBs
are required.

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Table 3

the prediction and analysis of engine TOW (section)

SN
271 272 281
582 601 608
Current
5791 4594 1824
TOW(h) 6411 4352 5298

TOW
prediction 8099 4683 6250
(h)
Practical
TOW at 7721 4656 6198
removal (h)
Relative
4.9 0.58 0.84
error (%)
LLP AD
Removal
PD time time
reason
limit limit

...

7695 6000 8633

7335 5988 9882

4.91

0.2 -12.6

PD

PD

PD

Conclusion
In this paper, based on theory of reliability modeling for
repairable systems, some new civil aero-engine health
management methods including maintenance decision-making,
TOW prediction and control were proposed, which considered
the historical record of engine removals, condition monitoring
data, engine reliability, time limit of key parts, the requirements
of engine manufacturers and airworthiness, etc. Finally, it was
proved to be effective in the case of CF6-80C2 engine fleet.
The objects of decision making were practical, and the process
is simple. These decision making methods have important
conducting meaning for civil aero-engine maintenance
management. Furthermore, they can be used for reference for
other complex equipments. However condition trend and
maintenance degree are needed to studied in detail for better
reference for maintenance management
Acknowledgments
This paper is supported by the joint fund of NSFC and CAAC
(60672164, 60939003); the fund of National High-tech R&D Program
(863 Program) (2006AA04Z427).

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Biography
XIANG RONG is a lecturer of Civil Aviation College at
Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics (NUAA).
His research fields are majored in reliability, maintenance, and
economic analysis for aero-engine.

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& Aeroengine Technical Congress [C]. Nevada, 2005.
1-13.
Sun Chun lin, Fan Zuo min. Principal component
algorthm for aeroengine fault diagnosis [J]. Acta
Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica, 1998, 19(3):
342-245. (in Chinese)

978-1-4244-4758-9/10/$26.00 2010 IEEE

HONGFU ZUO has an MS in Electrical Engineering and an

MS and PhD in Engineering Mechanics from the China
University of Mining and Technology. Professor Zuo is the
leading professor of the science of traffic and transportation
engineering in NUAA and the member of the State Council
Academic Degree Committee of Discipline Group (the fifth
Isixth ). He and his team have long been engaged in the
research of maintenance engineering and prognostics and
health management of the aircraft and aero-engine.
ZHIXIONG CHEN is a PhD student of Civil Aviation College
at NUAA. His research fields are majored in condition
monitoring, maintenance, and oil debris analysis for
aero-engine.

MU3036

2010 Prognostics& SystemHealth Management Conference

(PHM2010 Macau)