Wind Germany 2014 IWES

FRAUNHOFEr INSTITUTE FOR WIND ENERGY AND SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY IWES
wind energY report

GERMANY 2014
Publisher:
Dr. Kurt Rohrig
Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy and
Energy System Technology (IWES)
Division Energy Economy and Grid Operation
Knigstor 59
34119 Kassel
E-Mail: windmonitor@iwes.fraunhofer.de
www.iwes.fraunhofer.de
Editorial team:
Katrin Janssen, Stefan Faulstich, Berthold Hahn,
Johanna Hirsch, Moritz Neuschfer, Sebastian Pfaffel,
Dr. Kurt Rohrig, Andr Sack, Lena Schuldt,
Elisabeth Stark, Mark Ziee
Cover photo acknowledgment:
Sternziehen Bard
Copyright:
All rights to reprint, use imagers, reproduce in a photo mechanical or
similar way and to save information in data processing systems remains the
right of the Fraunhofer IWES and their employers.
Fraunhofer Institute
for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology (IWES)
wind energY report

GERMANY 2014
WIND ENERGY REPORT GERMANY 2014
CONTENTs
Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

The year of records . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Executive Summary .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Wind in the renewable energy mix .

Situation in Germany
Situation across the world . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Grid integration and expansion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Feed-in levels and yields .
Grid operation and expansion
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
23
28
Onshore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

Technical development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Wind conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Operatig results .
Legal and financial framework conditions
Offshore
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
43
. . . . . . .
46
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
48
49
Expansion of offshore wind energy
Technical development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
Wind and wave conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Operating results
Legal and financial framework conditions . . . . . . . . 67
. . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
64
Special Reports
Critical raw materials in wind power expansion . . . . . . . 70
Balancing power from wind turbines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
Regional market value factors for wind power . . . . . . . . 84
Effects of the bidding process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
German offshore expansion scenarios .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
Appendix
Literature and authors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
Fraunhofer IWES .
ThorntonBank
Senvion
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
ForEworD
THE YEAR OF RECORDS
Wind energy is making great strides. 2014 saw 51 GW of wind
To a minor extent, Germany is able to base its energy supply
capacity installed across the globe - never before has the figure
on its own raw materials, and is consequently playing a leading
been so high. Already 3% of worldwide power consumption
international role in many part aspects of the energy transition.
is being covered by wind energy (as of 2013). In Germany,
At the same time however, Germany must ensure it retains
2014 2014 saw 9.7% of gross power consumption provided
the expertise it builds up and the multifaceted technological
by wind energy following the record expansion of 5,188 MW.
edge to turn the energy transition into an economic success
Onshore, the highest gross expansion in Germanys history was
sustainable in the long term. All decisions and actions have an
reached with a figure of 4665 MW, and at sea wind capacity
effect on the development of wind energy usage. The German
has doubled with an increase of 523 MW.
Wind Energy Report reflects once a year on the current status,

providing an array of facts and figures. Additionally, more up-
For the first time in Germany, all renewable energies together
to-date information is available from www.windmonitor.de.
provide the highest share of gross power consumption - just

under 28%. So they have overtaken nuclear power plants
The Wind Energy Report is published as part of the
(2012) and now also the previously most important energy
Offshore~WMEP project funded by the federal ministry for
source, brown coal.
business affairs and energy.
The most important interim goals for renewable energies are

therefore met, but there are still a few challenges to be overcome on the energy transition road. Fluctuating feed-in levels,
the concentration of wind energy in the north and photovoltaics
in the south, and the overall increasing share of renewable
energies providing power require structural adaptation of
the entire energy supply system. The grid expansion, increase
of storage capacities, flexibilization of complementary power
plants, the moving and capping of consumption and capacity
peaks, and the continued expansion of renewables required for
this must be tailored to each other. Another challenge is coupling the electricity sector with the heat and transport sectors.
The regular amendments to the Renewable Energy Act, the
passing of laws on management and acceleration of grid
expansion, strategic deliberations and decision-making, laid
down in part in the Green Paper from the federal ministry for
economic affairs and Energy An electricity market for the
Prof. Dr. Clemens Hoffmann
Dr. Kurt Rohrig
energy transition, indicate the social efforts of organizing the
Director
Vice-Director
supply of energy in a viable and sustainable manner. Fluctuating
Fraunhofer IWES Kassel
Fraunhofer IWES Kassel
framework conditions, such as the current drop in crude oil

prices and much lower than anticipated prices for CO2 emission
rights, keep requiring corrections and adaptations.
Senvion
Executive Summary
Record year 2014. In Germany, the expansion figures
Offshore, the HelWin 1 grid link with a capacity of 580 MW
attained were so high on land and at sea that the overall new
went online. SylWin 1 and BorWin 2, with a total capacity of
installation figure of 5,188MW surpassed the previous maximum
1660MW, are currently being tested in a trial. In the preliminary
(from 2002) by more than 60%. With an overall capacity of
analysis results for the 2014 offshore grid development plan, grid
39,259MW, for the first time, wind energy in Germany covers
connections having an overall capacity of 10.3GW are planned.
9.7% of gross power consumption. On the global scale a capacity

of more than 51,000MW has been added - another record high
for wind energy installations.
Onshore. 2014 saw a total of 44different turbine types installed

in Germany. For the first time, virtually the same number of turbines were added in the 3-4 MW class, as in the 2-3 MW class,
Power mix. At 161 TWh, renewable energies in Germany

covered 27.8% of gross power consumption and provided for
the first time more energy than any other energy source.
Coming into force of the new REA in August 2014, modified
support schemes caused the expansion of biogas plants and
large-scale PV installations to falter. The record expansion seen
for wind energy can be interpreted as a pull-forward effect due to
which was previously dominant. Added turbines have on average

rotor diameters of 99 m and hub heights of 115m.
For the first time new turbines were added in every state. The
greatest absolute capacity expansions were in Schleswig-Holstein
(1293MW) followed by Lower Saxony (600MW). The greatest
expansion in terms of percentage was in Bavaria in the south of
Germany (27%).
Offshore. Global offshore expansion in 2014 was about
the tender procedures coming into force in 2017.

Grid integration. Loss of production caused by feed-in
management measures rose by 44% to 555GWh as compared
to 2012. Wind turbines were affected in 87% of cases but the
impact on PV installations is increasing. Power generation must
be more flexible and grids expanded to limit loss of production.
Of the 23 expansion projects (1,887 km) in the Electricity Grid
Expansion Act, just a quarter of them had been realized by the
end of 2014 (463km). In the preliminary analysis results for the
2014 grid development plan, the extent of grid upgrading and
conversion was 3050km.
1.6GW, as in the two previous years. The greatest expansion was

again in the United Kingdom, followed by Germany and Belgium.
A total of 2693offshore wind turbines in 104wind farms having
a capacity of 8493MW are connected to the grid.
In Germany, 141turbines with a total capacity of 523MW in the
DanTysk, Meerwind Sd/Ost, Nordsee Ost and Riffgat (in part)
wind farms went online, meaning a total capacity of 1044MW
were installed in German waters by the end of 2014. Another
286 wind turbines with a total capacity of 1269 MW were
installed but had no grid connection at the end of 2014.
Onshore
Offshore
Total
2013
2014
2013
2014
2013
2014
Installed capacity, cumulated
MW
33,714
38,215
521
1,044
34,235
39,259
New installed capacity
MW
2,930
4,665
240
523
3,170
5,188
9.5
13.9
86
101
9.7
15.2
Number of turbines
23,646
25,382
116
257
23,762
25,639
Added turbines (gross)
1,122
1,736
48
141
1,170
1,877
TWh
50.8
50.1*
0.9
1.3*
51.7
51.4*
8.5
9.4
0.15
0.23
8.6
9.7
Growth rate (gross)
Electricity feed-in (*projection)

Percentage of total electricity demand
Siemens D6 wind energy turbine

www.siemens.com/presse
WIND IN THE RENEWABLE

ENERGY MIX
Situation in Germany
Renewable energies in Germany. In 2014, renewable
160
the first time. Contributing 27.7% towards gross power

consumption (160,610GWh), 2014 saw them feed in for the
first time more electricity into the grid than brown coal power
plants (155,800 GWh) (see Figure1). The percentage contribution of renewables towards gross power consumption rose
by 2.3percentage points in 2014. If this contribution towards
Electricity production [TWh]
energies were the most important source of electricity for

Fossil energy sources
Nuclear power
Lignite
Hard coal
Natural gas
Others
120
80
Renewable energy sources

Photovoltaic energy
Waste-fueled power plants
Biomass
Wind power
Hydroelectric
40
gross power consumption continues to rise year on year at a

similar rate, the goal of increasing to 40% - 45% in the energy
mix by 2025 (1of REA) should be met. At 35%, wind energy
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
made the largest contribution to the renewable electricity mix
Figure 1: Power generation from renewables since 1990, data sources:
in 2014 (see Figure2). According to the AGEE, German wind
AGEE [1] and AGEB [2]
turbines (WTs) fed in 55,970 GWh of wind power capacity over

the year. This means WTs also experienced the highest growth.
The power yield from WTs rose by 4262GWh, and that from
photovoltaic installations by 3920GWh to 34,930GWh[1].
Renewable energy sources. Figure 2 shows the total
electricity production from renewable energies and the installed
nominal power of renewables in 1990 and 2014. At 85% of
installed capacity, wind and solar installations make up the majority of nominal capacity in the renewable power mix. Whilst the
largest power yield is from wind energy (35%), biomass follows
in second place with 27% ahead of PV (21%). The biomass sector
Biomass
1.2
Waste-fueled
power plants
Wind power
0.4
Hydroelectric
91
12
84
Installed
power [%]
Electricity
production [%]
1990
Total: 18,932 GWh and 4.7 GW
Waste-fueled
power plants
4
Photovoltaic Hydroeletric
energy
13
21
6
42
Biomass
27
2 7
42 Wind
onshore
34
Wind
offshore
1
2014
Total: 160,610 GWh and 91.8 GW
stagnated in 2014 however. The adoption of the REA amend-
Figure 2: Gross power generation and installed nominal capacity of
ment in August 2014 has lead to a new capacity of only 48MW
renewables for 1990 and 2014, data source: AGEE [1]
(338MW in 2013)[3]. The yield from hydro-electric power has

been almost constant since 1990 at 19,800GWh on average, but
now only represents 13% of the renewable energy mix.
The energy yield illustrates the characteristic attributes of different
energy sources. PV installations make up 42% of installed capacity.
Their contribution to power generation is at the same time only
21%. There were 937full-load hours for PV in 2014. In contrast,
weather-independent biomass installations reached a far higher utilization level with 6426full-load hours. At 7% of installed capacity,
they generate over a quarter of electricity from renewables. Hydroelectric plants reached an average of 3666full-load hours in 2014.
Erich Westendarp/pixelio.de
Electricity price. In 2014, the average electricity price for a

CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS
household with an annual consumption of 2500 to 5000 kWh

was 29.8 ct/kWh (see Figure3). The price for end consumers
The expansion of renewables is increasingly being
has therefore risen by 31% within 5 years [4], whilst prices
discussed in terms of its resource consumption. In
for medium-sized and large industrial customers have risen by
particular, little investigation has been conducted
38% and 22% respectively [5].
into the consumption and long-term availability of

mineral raw materials generally required to manu-
The electricity price paid by industrial and private customers
facture energy converters and infrastructure. The
includes the costs for energy generation and sale as well as dif-
special Critical raw materials for wind energy expan-
ferent mark-ups. The cost block for generation, transportation
sion report by the Wuppertal Institute contributes
and sales (making up 48% of the electricity price in 2014) has
from Page 70 towards plugging this gap.
stayed virtually constant over the last five years (see Figure4).
In addition, the electricity price is made up of eight charges and
Investigated here are which critical mineral raw
contributions [8] set on a national level:
materials are relevant for the production of WTs in

Germany by the year 2050. Long-term availability of
Generation, transportation and sales (13.87ct/kWh).
raw materials identified, supply situation, recycling
Concession fee for the granting of rights of way in local au-
capability and environmental conditions of transport-
thorities (48EnWG) with amounts from 1.32 to 2.39ct/
ation are included in the categorization of critical.
kWh depending on size of local authority. The average

value was about 1.79ct/kWh [8].
Following the definition of critical minerals, their
The REA surcharge for compensation of the difference bet-
requirement for wind energy in due consideration
ween feed-in payment and actual sales revenues (37REA)
of different WT types are derived for period 2011 to
is recalculated every October by the TSOs for the following
2050 for the low, medium, high and very high expansion paths of onshore and offshore wind energy, and
alternatives highlighted.
year (6.24ct/kWh) [9].

The CHP surcharge is used to encourage production of
electricity from installations having combined heat and
power cycle (0.178ct/kWh) - 7KWKG [10].
The report shows that potential supply bottlenecks
The 19 surcharge (19StromNEV) compensates the grid
may mean not every technology alternative can be
charge exemption of companies with intensive electricity
used without restriction.
usage (0.092ct/kWh) [11].

The offshore liability charge (17fEnWG) is used to cover
costs for damage/loss caused by delayed connection of
offshore wind parks was at the maximum permitted by law,
0.25ct/kWh [12].
0.009ct/kWh for the provision of flexible loads [13].
Electricity tax has been 2.05ct/kWh since 2003
(3StromStG) [14].
19% VAT is added to the final total (4.65ct/kWh).
10
Wind in the renewable energy mix
Whilst the 2014 REA surcharge rose from 5.277 to 6.24ct/kWh
30
(an increase of 18.2%) [9], the contribution of transportation

2.54 ct/kWh (+6.3%). The increase in REA surcharge is also
down to the broadening of the industry privilege and the drop
in the exchange electricity price (see Figure5).
Energy tariff [ct/kWh]
costs alone in renewables expansion only rose from 2.39 to
Industry 70 - 100 GWh p.a.

Industry 0.5 - 2.5 GWh p.a.
20
End consumer 2.5 - 5 MWh p.a.

10
REA surcharge
For the compensation regulations for companies with intensive electricity usage ( 40 ff. REA), companies benefiting
Stock market (Phelix Day Base)

0
pay a lower REA surcharge or are fully exempt depending
1/09
2/09
1/10
2/10
1/11
2/11
1/12
2/12 1/13
2/13
1/14
2/14
on their electricity consumption level and intensity. In 2014,
Figure 3: 6-monthly electricity price for industrial and private customers, and
2,799large-scale consumers with a privileged electricity volume
monthly electricity price quoted (Phelix Day Base) and REA surcharge,
of 107,101GWh benefited from the compensation regulation,
data sources: Eurostat [4, 5], EPEX [6], REA surcharge[7]
whilst this figure was 2295with 95,318GWh in 2013 [17,18].

Accordingly, the industry privilege entry rose from 0.92 to
30
1.26ct/kWh in 2014 (see Figure5).
Production, transportation, distribution

Concession fee
REA surcharge
CHP charge
25.89
25.23
Costs [ct/kWh]
Every October TSOs calculate the REA surcharge - which is

due the following year. The September account balance is
used for the contribution calculation. Given the discrepancies
between forecast and actual figure, the account balance in
20
23.21
23.69
3.71
3.78
2.05
1.31
1.79
2.05
0.23
2.05
4.13
4.03
2.05
0.13
2.05
0,03
3.53
1.79
1.79
13.89
13.8
19 Charge
Offshore liability levy
Electricity tax
28.73
VAT
0.151
0.002
29.13
4.59
4.65
2.05 0.25
0.329
0.126
2.05 0.25
0.092
0.178
5.277
6.24
3.592
1.79
1.79
1.79
14.17
14.32
13.87
10
September 2013 (used as the basis for the 2014 contribution)
14.12
was -2,196million [19]. This is reflected in the catching up of

the surcharge from the previous year in 2014 with 0.59ct/kWh
(see Figure5). To absorb uncertainties in the TSO calculation,
2009
2011
2012
2013
Figure 4: Breakdown
of2010
electricity
price for
households
with 2014
annual
0.27ct/kWh was provided as a liquidity reserve.
consumption of 3,500kWh, data source: BDEW [8]

8
New installations coming on line between January 2012 and

July 2014 were awarded a market bonus to stimulate inte-
reimburse additional expenditure of operators for direct selling

activities. In 2013, 85% of wind power, 43% of biomass, 16%
ct/kWh
gration of renewable energies into the electricity market and to
Industry privilieg
Reduction stock exchange price
Market premium
Liquidity reserve
Additional payment
5.26
0.63
0.12
3.58
0.58
of hydro-electric power, 15% of geothermal energy and 11%

of PV were sold directly.
The stock exchange dealing volume for Germany and Austria
(Phelix) on the EPEX spot market doubled from 135 TWh in
Photovoltaic
Biomass
Wind onshore
Wind offshore
Others
0.81
0.21
0.56
0.03
0.59
0.27
0.13
1.47
1.10
0.92
0.02
0.02
0.11
6.25
0.24
0.67
1.26
0.02
0.04
0.25
0.79
1.35
1.41
1.40
2012
2013
2014
0.01
0.08
2009 to over 263TWh in 2014 [6]. The obligation to sell REA
Figure 5 Components of REA surcharge; data source: BEE [15, 16].
electricity through exchanges, in force since 2010, also makes a
There are slight differences from the REA surcharge calcutated by
contribution towards this.
the BEE compared to the actual REA surcharge.
11
80
Consumers must compensate the difference between com-
2
Trade surplus []
Export
Import
Net export
pensation payments to regenerative installation operators and

increasingly lower stock exchange prices ( 2014: 3.36ct/kWh).
1.5
40
To close this gap, 1.47ct/kWh was set in the REA surcharge in

Power trading [mill. ]
Power trading [TWh]
60
2014 [16]. In 2014, the exchange price was at 2.58ct/kWh, a

new record low since selling of REA electricity on exchanges
(the figure in June 2013 was 2.78ct/kWh). The exchange price
has fallen by 14% since 2009 (see Figure3).
0.5
20
2013 saw Germany export more electricity than ever before.

0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
The export surplus was 34,954GWh, and in 2012 22,767GWh

(see Figure6). The previous highest net export surplus in Ger-
Figure 6: Germanys electricity trade balance, data source: DeStatis
many was in 2013 - a record total of 1.94bn. 36,873GWh
[20]
of electricity was imported for an average of 4.92ct/kWh, and

71,827GWh exported for an average of 5.23ct/kWh [20].
Wind power yield in Germany. According to the
projections of TSOs, the national wind power yield reached
60,000
Electricity production [GWh]
Onshore (annual statement)

Onshore (extrapolation)
Offshore (annual statement)

51,707
Offshore (extrapolation)
51,384
50,670
48,883
ption in Germany [2].
30,710
27,229
25,509
Compared to the wind year 2013 (51,707 GWh), there was

an apparent lower feed-in level despite record expansion in
18,713
15,786
20,000
of the total yield, or 1313GWh. In 2014, wind power therefore

contributed for the first time 9% of gross electricity consum-
40,574
38,542
39,713
37,460
40,000
51,384GWh in 2014. Offshore wind power contributed 2.6%
2014 (see Figure7). In the past however, yield forecasted with
10,509
9,513
extrapolation was 4 to 10% below the actual feed-in level

0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Figure 7: Graph of wind power yields in Germany, data sources:

Annual REA statements [2134], and projection data of TSOs [35,
36], projection data of TSOs [35]. The different data sources mean
there are discrepancies from other figures shown in this report.
12
determined later. Accordingly, the total feed-in level for 2014 is

likely to be higher. AGEE assumes a figure of 55,970GWh [1].
Expansion and wind energy utilization in Germany.
40,000
As the forerunner to the Renewable Energy Act (REA), the Electricity Feed-in From Renewables Act dated December7, 1990
mum tariffs. Figure8 shows how the wind capacity installed has
changed since. In 2014, expansion by 1738WTs increased overall onshore capacity to 38,215MW (see Figure8). In German
30,000
23,665
22,104
20,488
20,000
14,513
11,863
175 319
ually growing percentage of wind yield.
6,060
4,386
2,835
2,037
1,525
6121,092
0 63 105
1990
1993
grid. At a figure of 2.6%, they contributed to a low yet contin-
10,000
8,681
to the grid. Offshore, this means a total of 521turbines with a

capacity of 1044MW are feeding into the German electricity
20,000
18,312
16,505
10,000
waters, 142WTs with a capacity of 523MW were connected
30,000
28,903
26,952
25,502
Number WT
with renewables and guaranteed electricity producers mini-
34,235
31,122
Total nominal power [MW]
bound energy supply companies to buying electricity generated
40,000
39,259
offshore
onshore
Number WT
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
Figure 8: Net capacity of installed onshore and offshore wind turbines in Germany, data sources: IWET [37], Fraunhofer IWES
A wind capacity of 5193 MW was installed new in 2014.

Onshore, record expansion of 4670 MW was achieved,
surpassing the previous record year (2002) by 47%. Figure 9
5,000
came into effect. Whilst newly installed capacity before 1998

was thousands of MWs, it reached peaks in 2002 and 2014
with 3187MW and 4670MW respectively. The high expansion
figures in 2002 can be interpreted as a delayed, positive reaction to the REA coming into force in April 2000, and the high
Nominal power [MW]
creased once the 1991 Electricity Feed-in From Renewables Act

4,000
In 2014, expansion for onshore WTs was far higher over all
4,670
2,000
3,187
3,000
2,930
2,635
2,000
1,677
1,555
expansion level in 2014 as a pull-forward effect due to the new

REA allowance regulations coming into effect.
2,500
4th quarter
3rd quarter
2nd quarter
1st quarter
Number WT
1,000
800
42 42 70
144
294
1,500
2,681
2,275
2,210
2,009
1,945
1,850
1,831
1,654
1,562
1,465
1,000
Number WT
illustrates the extent to which annual capacity expansion in-
500
482 435 512
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
quarters than in previous years. Implementation of the new

REA in August 2014 means that in the future, payment will
Figure 9: Annual installation of onshore wind capacity in Germany,
be calculated based on expansion. If annual onshore expansion
data source IWET [37]
is over 2600 MW net, payment is to be lowered from January

2016 in line with the flexible cap on a quarterly basis (see also
Page 45) (3, 29REA).
13
A comparison of expansion in different states. The

Federal Network Agency starts register of rene-
Electricity Feed-in Law laid down a wind power remuneration
wable energy installations
of 8 to 9 ct/kWh from 1991 to 2002, and facilitated economically profitable usage for WTs at locations with good wind
Since August 2014, all renewable energy installations
conditi-ons. Accordingly, Germany saw a wind turbine boom
(wind, biomass, geothermal energy and wind power)
in coastal regions in the mid-90s. Increasing levels of technical
coming online, expanded and decommissioned in
development meant more and more WTs were built in non-
Germany have been entered into the Renewable
coastal locations far from the coast and in the low mountain
Energy Installation register, a database kept by the
regions of Germany.
Federal Network Agency (BNetzA). Also documented

are the location, energy sources deployed and tech-
Most German states saw political endeavors to utilize energy.
nical parameters [1].
Lower Saxony is aiming for expansion figures of 14,000 MW

onshore and 8,000MW offshore for 2020 [38]. Lower Saxonys
Enactment of the amended REA means all new instal-
red-green government is looking to expand onshore capacity
lations must be registered by the BNetzA to receive
to 20,000MW by 2050[39]. The grid development initiative in
a government subsidy. Existing installations must
Schleswig-Holstein is planning an onshore wind capacity of just
report major changes such as shutting down and
under 8500MW by 2020[40], and Hesse wants to allocate 2%
taking advantage of the extended starting subsidiary.
of its area as priority area for wind energy utilization in order
In the long term, the register is to be expanded
to reach the target of having all its electricity generated from
into a central database containing information on
renewable sources by 2050[41]. The planning and goals of the
renewable energy installations and the master data
German states form ScenarioC 2024 of the grid development
of conventional installations, energy storage facilities
plan (GDP) and are shown in Figure10 .
and managed appliances [2].

In July 2014 the law on introducing a state opening clause
This data is used for example to record annual WT
for specifying minimum distances for WTs passed the Bundes-
expansion, to be between 2,400 and 2,600 MW net
tag[44]. This means Bavaria was able to specify in November
per annum according to the new REA. Based on the
2014 a minimum state-specific distance of WTs from residential
differences to the expansion corridor provided for,
areas with the 10Hregulation. Approval is only given to WTs
the amounts of the respective subsidy rates are to be
that are 10 times the height of the nearest residential area.
aligned on a quarterly basis from January 2016 [1]
Before, the ruling across the country was that WTs could be
(29 Section2REA). In the first five months (August
built 800m from residential areas. Shorter distances are only
to December 2014), a wind capacity of 2,316 MW
permitted when there is an agreement with the local authority
went online and only 179MW were taken off he grid
and with neighboring local authorities. According to SPD ener-
[3], so a reduction of the REA tariffs is highly likely.
gy expert Kohnen, 10Hwill mean only 0.05% of Bavaria will

remain usable for wind energy [45].
14
13,200
MW
13,000
MW
Expansion plans up to 2024

Commissioned in 2014
Commissioned since 2002
Suitable for repowering
14,500
MW
8,600
MW
2,900
MW
5,165
MW
3,407
WT
51 22
MW WT
Baltic Sea
993
MW
11,000
MW
2,564
MW
8,190
MW
235
WT
Northsea
1,681
WT
Schleswig-Holstein
8,400
MW
5,784
WEA 100 53 57
MW MW WT
MecklenburgWest Pomerania
Hamburg
200 152 81
MW MW WT
5,493
MW
5,500
MW
Bremen
4.245
MW
100 4
2
MW MW WT
2.607
WEA
3,711
MW
4,310
MW
6,250
MW
3,700
MW
1,170
MW 817
WEA
Brandenburg
Saxony-Anhalt
1,200
MW1,093
879
MW
WT
1,136
MW 746
WT
North RhineWestphalia
1,568
WT
Berlin
Lower Saxony
3,057
WT
2,800
MW
3.396
WT
Saxony
Thuringa
Hesse
Rhineland Palatinate
5,000
MW
800
MW
205 121
MW WT
Saarland
4,700
MW
1,500
MW
772
WT
549
407
MW
WT
Bavaria
Baden-Wrttemberg
Figure 10: Capacity and number of wind turbines in individual German states, and North and Baltic Sea in 2014 split by year of installation
and expansion planning to 2024 in Scenario C (expansion goals of German states) of the grid development plan,
data sources: IWET [37], Fraunhofer IWES, scenario framework 2024 [42] compared to [43]
15
Growth generating capacity

[MW/km]
0 - 0,05
0,05 - 0,1
0,1 - 0,5
0,5 - 1
1-2
>2
Figure 11: Distribution of newly installed onshore wind capacity in 2014 in different postcode regions, data source: IWET [37]
16
Total generating capacity

[MW/km]
0 - 0,05
0,05 - 0,1
0,1 - 0,5
0,5 - 1
1-5
>5
Figure 12: Distribution of installed onshore wind capacity in 2014 in different postcode regions, data source: IWET [37]
17
The greatest absolute capacity expansion in 2014 was in

Debating the capacity market
Schleswig-Holstein (1293 MW), corresponding to the total

capacity of Hesse. This figure was 600 MW in Lower Saxony
November 2014 saw the BMWi (federal ministry for
and 492 MW in Brandenburg. Bavaria (27%) and Schleswig-
economic affairs and energy) specify in a Green
Holstein (25%) represented the greatest expansion rates.
Paper a power plant overcapacity in the European

electricity market - 60 GW in the electricity market
Figure 10 also shows that Lower Saxony, Brandenburg and
region relevant for Germany alone. The BMWi is
Schleswig-Holstein are the German states with the largest
therefore pushing for a reduction in power plant
nominal capacity installed. It makes up of half of the German
capacities[47].
onshore wind capacity. Similarly, half of all WTs are in these

three German states. In Saxony, Schleswig-Holstein and Meck-
Since 2013, RWE has taken 12,600 MW of conventi-
lenburg-Vorpommern, every second turbine has a repowering
onal power plant capacity offline, corresponding to
capability. Here, many WTs with low capacities (regarded as
the WT capacity of Lower Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt.
small today) were built around the turn of the millennium.
In 2014, the revenues of 25% of power plants barely

covered the costs for fuel and pollution rights. This
In 2013 in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, 6817GWh of electricity
is the reason why energy supply companies are
were generated from renewables, 3688 GWh of which from
calling for speedy introduction of a capacity market
WTs. This means Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is the first Land able
from the federal government. Power plants could be
to cover almost all of its power requirement (about 7000GWh)
remunerated for standby operations, necessary from
from renewables alone - mathematically at least[46].
the viewpoint of energy supply companies to provide

protection against fluctuating electricity production
Schleswig-Holstein has the highest average installed wind
from renewables[48].
capacity (327 kW/km) of low-lying states in relation to area,

followed by Saxony-Anhalt (208kW/km). Whilst in the north-
Federal minister of economics Sigmar Gabriel dis-
ern states an average wind capacity of 111kW to 327kW are
tances himself from a capacity market. According
installed per square kilometer, the southern states exhibit much
to the Electricity market lead study, no capacity
lower values (Baden-Wrttemberg and Bavaria in particular
mechanisms are required to safeguard reliable supply
with 15kW/km and 21kW/km respectively). This north-south
to consumers[49].
divide and the differences within the German states are illustrated in Figure12. The greatest total capacity is 420MW in
Operators continue to be obligated to report one year
Jterborg, and the highest capacity density is 6.7MW/km in
in advance any shutdowns ( 13a Section 1 EnWG).
52062Aachen. The greatest level of expansion was 133MW in
Grid operators check whether a power plant has relev-
25821Almdorf, and the greatest relative expansion was 3MW/
ance to the overall scenario and is indispensable for
km in 67655Kaiserslautern (see Figure11).
stable supply of power. Of 48power plants registered

for shutdown, 11are indispensable and will continue
to operate for up to 24months [50].
18
120,000
Onshore
Growth 2014 worldwide: 51,478 MW

Installed nominal power worldwide: 369,559 MW
100,000
Installed nominal power [MW]
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
10,000
0
On- / Offshore
Total 2014
Growth 2014
Growth 2013
Growth 2012
Growth 2011
Growth 2010
Total 2008
Offshore
China
114,392 / 371
23,351 / 16,088 / 12,832 / 128
17,557 / 74
18,767 / 161
25,797 / 8
USA
Germany
65,879 / 0 38,122 / 1,044

4,769 / 4,392 / 523
1,103 / 0 2,740 / 240
13,078 / 2,119 / 80
6,631 / 1,752 / 128
5,212 / 1,354 / 60
35,086 / - 25,765 / 12
Spain
22,987 / 28 / 175 / 1110 / 1051 / 1,463 / 19,160 / -
India
UK
22,465 / - 7,936 / 4,504

2,315 / 884 / 845
1,729 / 1,282 / 780
2,337 / 872 / 1,221
3,019 / 995 / 313
2,139 / 382 / 621
10,926 / - 3,521 / 724
Canada
France
Italy
Brasil
9,694 / 1,871 / 1,619 / 939 / 1,257 / 689 / 3,319 / -
9,285 / 1,042 / 620 / 816 / 837 / 1,396 / 4,574 / -
8,663 / 105 / 440 / 1,240 / 1,081 / 948 / 4,849 / -
5,939 / 2,473 / 958 / 1,077 / 504 / 321 / 606 / -
Figure 13: Ranking of leading countries utilizing wind energy at the end of 2014. Data source: GWEC [48, 5457].
Due to the different data sources, there are differences to other figures cited in this report.
19
Situation across the world
Reg
Total capacity
Share
Growth
Asia
142,121 MW
38.5 %
23 %
Europe
133,970 MW
36.2 %
10 %
North America
77,954 MW
21.1 %
10 %
Latin America
8 527 MW
2.3 %
79 %
Australia and
Oceania
4 441 MW
1.2 %
15 %
Middle East
and Africa
2 546 MW
0.7 %
58 %
369.559 MW
100 %
16 %
the strongest increase in 2014 was in China (see Figure 13).
Table 1: Nominal capacity installed globally in 2014 by region, data
A capacity expansion of 23,350MW meant the 115GW mark
source: GWEC [48]..
was almost reached. The second highest expansion was in
Total
In 2013, a wind energy capacity of 318GW and 620TWh made

up 3% of global power consumption. According to GWEC,
19% of worldwide power consumption could be generated by
WTs by 2030. European wind power capacity could triple from
117GW to 386GW, providing 1014TWh instead of 257TWh
of electricity in the future [47].
2014 saw global wind capacity installed both onshore and
offshore rise to 370 GW, an increase of 16%. As in 2013,
Germany (with 4400 MW onshore and 500 MW offshore),

closely followed by the US with just under 4800 MW. In the
meantime there has been record expansion in Brazil of just
under 2500MW, making it the first Latin American country to
appear in the Top10 list [48].
In Spain, the first country in the world to produce more power
from wind than any other source (in 2013) [49], expansion
stagnated in 2014. Spanish electricity prices have not been
cost-covering for years. Every year the industry posts a 4bn
deficit, for which the government acts as guarantor. As the
total deficit rose to 28 bn the government pushed for a
change in the remuneration system for renewables [50]. These
new regulations also retrospectively affect existing installations
to the end of the relevant remuneration period [51]. Since
this change was announced, operators have been considering
whether to dismantle existing WTs in Spain and to set them up
again in more lucrative markets[49].
This is why Spain is likely to be overtaken by India in 2015. The
potential for wind energy in India is in excess of 300,000MW
[52], whilst a capacity of only 22,500MW was installed in 2014.
With the new prime minister Modi taking office, expansion
goals for WTs are set to increase to 10,000 MW each year.[53].
20
Of the Top10 countries, it is only UK, Germany and China which

operate commercial offshore wind farms. The most important
wind markets continue to be China, USA, Germany, Spain
and India, with a total of 72%. UK, France and Italy are other
European countries in the Top10. The most important growth
markets (with expansion between 500MW and 1900MW and
growth rate exceeding 24%) were South Africa, Chile, Mexico,
Turkey and Sweden.
Table1 shows a comparison of expansion levels on individual
continents. 2014 saw Asia in first place for the first time with
38.5%, followed by Europe with 36.2%. The greatest percen-
Proportions of wind energy at total energy production [%]
Denmark
30
Portugal
Spain
20
10
UK
USA
0
India France
Canada China
0
20
Germany
Italy
40
60
80
100
120
Installed wind power generating per land area [kw/km]
tage growth within one year was achieved by Latin America,
Figure 14: Relative importance of wind energy as international com-
with a capacity increase of 79 % to 8527MW. This is where
parison, for countries with wind capacity exceeding 4500 MW, as of:
Brazil in particular is fully behind the expansion of wind energy
2013, data sources: GWEC [57] CIA Factbook [59] and IEA [60, 61]
usage - the aim is to increase capacity from just under 6GW

currently to 14.2GW by 2021 [58].
Included in Figure 14 are all countries with an installed wind
energy capacity exceeding 450 MW, in relation to area utilization and total energy yield. In terms of wind capacity per
square kilometer of land area, only European countries make
up the Top 10. Germany continues to occupy second place
(with 99 kW/km) behind Denmark (112 kW/km). In terms
of wind energy yield as a percentage of the overall energy
yield, only European countries make up the Top 9. Denmark
also leads in this statistic (33%), followed by Portugal (24%),
Spain (21%) and Germany (9%). The comparatively densely
populated European nations lead in this statistic, with countries
such as the USA (6.7 kW/Km; 4%) and China (9.6 kW/km;
3%) exhibiting far lower values despite their leading positions
within the overall picture.
21
22
Grid integration and

expansion
Feed-in levels and yields
10,000
Wind power feed-in levels in 2014. By its very nature,
2013
2014
energy generation with WTs fluctuates in line with prevailing

generation, not with the load curve. Full measurement of wind
power feed-in would be very complex given the large number of
decentralized WTs feeding in to the grid. It is for this reason that
the four German TSOs use a special system for extra-polation,
which calculates an approximate level of wind power feed-in
8,000
Wind energy feed-in [GWh]
wind energy conditions and, in contrast to conventional power
6,000
4,000
2,000
with a relatively low number of reference measurement points.

These measurement points are selected wind farms or substa-
tions with wind energy making up a large contribution. Final
January
March
May
July
September
November
yield figures are not available until the REA annual statement
published in the summer of the following year is available.
Figure 15: Extrapolation of 2014 wind power feed-in level onshore

as compared to month in previous year,
Figure15 shows the monthly onshore wind power feed-in level
data source: projection data from TSOs [35]
and illustrates the seasonal dependency. Onshore in 2014,

more than 50 TWh of wind power were fed into the German
300
electricity grid, meaning a yield increase of about 8.3% as

compared to the projections in 2013 (46.3TWh). Over recent
North Sea 2013

Baltic Sea 2013
North Sea 2014

Baltic Sea 2014
10% below actual feed-in values. The first 6months of 2014

were 18% stronger than 2013, with a feed-in level of over 4
TWh more. In the second half of 2014, feed-in values fell below
the level for the previous year by 0.2 TWh. Despite this, the
month of December again had a considerable bearing on the
Wind energy feed-in [GWh]
years however, extrapolation data for wind energy was up to

200
100
wind year, with over 17% of the entire yearly yield being fed in
(just under 8.6TWh). This means December 2014 is the month
with the greatest level of wind power, overtaking the previous
record values from December 2011 and December 2013.
January
March
May
July
September
November
Figure 16: Extrapolation of 2014 wind power feed-in level from
Figure 16 illustrates the wind power feed-in level according
North and Baltic seas as compared to month in previous year,
to the projection data for North and Baltic Seas in 2014,
compared to months in the previous year. The energy yield

of 1313 GWh in 2014 exceeded that in 2013 by 45%. This
enormous increase is the result of the Riffgat and Meerwind
Sd/Ost offshore wind farms going online in February and
November respectively, and DanTysk and Global TechI partially
coming online in December. In December 2014, over 21% of
the annual feed-in level was achieved (just under 281 GWh).
SylWin1 platform
23
30
20
10
from April to September than in the other months.
-4
max. power (22.12.2014)

max. power increase (12.12.2014)
max. power decrease (11.05.2014)
min. power (02.10.2014)
Energy trafic course (12.12.2014)
Energy trafic course (11.05.2014)
00:
seasonal difference - considerably less wind power was fed in
Spot price [ct /kWh]
Power [GW]
What can clearly be seen for both offshore and onshore is the
Forecast quality. Accurate forecasting of expected wind

capacities is required in order to achieve improved integration
of wind energy into transmission grids. Shown in Figure17 is
the graph of the error in the following day forecast over recent years, based upon the disclosure obligations of TSOs for
forecasted and projected ACTUAL feed-in levels of wind energy
( 17 Section 1 StromNZV). For Germany, the average root
:00
00 4:00 6:00 8:00 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00 0

2
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
02:
22
:00
-8
:00
24
00
Figure 17: Extreme daily cycles of feed-in of wind power into the
mean square error (RMSE) in relation to the average turbine

capacity installed was 2.89% in 2014. The maximum positive
discrepancy was 14.2%, and its negative equivalent -21.3%.
German electricity grid in 2014, based upon quarter-hourly predictions of wind capacity and the electricity price graph of these extreme
A decreasing tendency has been evident for the RMSE since
days on the EPEX spot auction market, data source: projection data
2010. The graph for the smallest TSO, TransnetBW, represents
from TSOs [6, 6265]
an exception to this trend. The potential compensation effects

mean the lower the forecast error is the bigger the transmission
grid is and the more WTs are installed in it (see Figure23). In
addition to the higher forecast quality for TenneT and 50Hertz
RMSE of mean instelled power [%]
compared to Amprion and TransnetBW, it is reflected most of

all in the comparison with the overall German error value. The
small transmission grid and the low installed capacity consequently mean a far higher inherent susceptibility to errors at
TransnetBW..
TransnetBW
Amprion
50Hertz
Tennet
Germany
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Figure 18: Graph of forecast quality for wind power feed-in levels
in Germany based upon quarter-hourly forecasts and projections of
wind power feed-in, data source: projection data from TSOs [6265]
24
Grid integration and expansion
Daily cycles. Figure18 shows the graph over time for fed-in
wind capacity on extreme days in 2014. The absolute highest
CONTROL POWE FROM WIND TURBINES
value for wind capacity in 2014, and over all years, was reached
on December12, 2014 with 29,687MW between 13:30 and
Given that more than 25% of electricity consumed
13:45. 76% of the nominal WT capacity installed in Germany
now comes from renewable energy installations,
was connected to the grid at that time - with the Billie storm
more system responsibility should be transferred to
front providing assistance. The day with the highest average
renewables.
wind capacity (27,565MW) over 24hours was December22,

2014. Thanks to the Freia low-pressure system, 662 GWh
No control power has yet been provided from WTs,
were fed in, corresponding to 7.5% of the December yield.
mainly because the formalities for the control power

market are not rendering participation possible. The
The day with the lowest wind yields was October2, 2014. With
industry is proactively seeking solutions despite these
an average capacity of 380MW, only 9.1GWh of wind power
circumstances. Minor adaptations to applicable mar-
was fed in on that day. The maximum absolute capacity increase
ket conditions are in the discussion about facilitating
was measured on December12, 2014. From 07:30 to 07:45,
participation of fluctuating feed-in of renewable
the wind capacity rose by 1622 MW to about 22,500 MW,
energy.
corresponding to a capacity increase of about 8% within these

15minutes. The maximum absolute capacity drop was recorded
To render possible integration of fluctuating renew-
on May11, 2014. The wind capacity fell by 2029MW (11%)
ables into the energy supply system, Fraunhofer
between 14:00 and 14:15.
IWES ran the Control power from wind turbines

project in collaboration with Enercon, Energiequelle,
The influence of the wind yield is also partly reflected in the
Amprion and TenneT. The development and testing
progression over time of exchange electricity prices. The almost
of a concept with which WTs are able to provide
bell-shaped graph of wind capacity on May 11, 2014 from
control power cost-effectively is described on Page78
02:00 to 20:00 is almost the exact opposite of the electricity
onwards.
price. An increase in wind capacity was accompanied by a

fall in the exchange electricity price to the day minimum of
The special report illustrates graphically that WTs can
6.5 ct/kWh about 14:00, whilst the wind capacity reached
take on a system supportive role.
the day maximum. A drop in wind capacity up to 20:00 was

accompanied by an increase in the exchange electricity price,
with a slight delay to the day maximum of about 3.4ct/kWh. In
addition to the drop in wind power available, the decrease of
PV feed-in levels at this time and the rising demand in the early
evening are also responsible for this price rise. For the maximum
capacity increase on December12, 2014, only a minor impact
on the exchange electricity price is evident.
25
Daily cycles onshore. Figure19 shows the daily progression
10,000
of the average onshore wind capacity over the winter months

8,000
(December, January and February) and summer months (June,

July and August). The values for 2014 are compared to the
Power [MW]
6,000
6-year average from 2008 to 2013. The capacity level of the

2014 summer months, at 3614MW on average, is 62% lower
4,000
than that of the three winter months in 2014 (at 9534MW).

The capacity level for summer 2014 is just above the level of the
2,000
0
0
0:0
6-year summer average (2008 - 2013)

Summer 2014
6-year winter average (2008 - 2013)
Winter 2014
:00
02
:00
04
:00
06
:00
08
00
10:
00
12:
00
14:
00
16:
:00
00 20
18:
22
:00
:00
24
6-year average, with a very low deviation. At 52%, the winter

months in 2014 are very clearly above the 6-year average showing the effects of the wind year and the capacity expansion.
Figure 19: Average daily cycles of onshore wind capacity in the summer
A strong daytime dependence of capacity level can be seen
and winter months as a comparison,
in the summer months. The capacity level decreases slightly
data source: projection data from TSOs [35, 6265]
from 00:00 to 06:00. From the average low point at 08:00,

the capacity level increases by about 54% by 14:00, to reach
its maximum of about 4000 MW between 15:00 and 16:00.
250
Towards the evening, the wind capacity returns to the level of

the morning. These daytime dependencies only play a minor
200
role in the winter months. This effect comes about as a re-
Power [MW]
sult of increased coupling of air layers near the ground as a

150
consequence of sunshine, and accompanying thermals in the

summer months. Stronger thermal turbulence means the wind
100
from higher layers of the atmosphere is transported in layers

close the ground, resulting in a maximum wind capacity density
50
00
00:
00
02:
00
04:
00
06:
00
08:
00
10:
00
12:
00
14:
00
16:
00
18:
Summer 2013
Summer 2014
Winter 2013
Winter 2014
00 2:00 4:00
20:
2
2
during the day. See also Figure44 [66].

Daily cycles offshore. Figure 20 show the daily cycles of
the offshore wind capacity in the winter and summer months
Figure 20: Average daily cycles of offshore wind capacity for North
for the German North and Baltic Seas. The higher capacity
and Baltic Sea in the summer and winter months as a comparison,
level in 2014 can be explained by the added turbine capacity
of 523MW (doubling capacity compared to 2013). In contrast

to the onshore daily cycle (Figure19), no clear daytime dependency of wind capacity is evident because thermal convection
on open seas has a minor impact. At 240 MW on average,
the capacity level of the winter months in 2014 is far above
the average capacity of the summer months in 2014 (72MW).
More favorable wind conditions in the winter months are the
reason - however the depiction is also skewed by the addition
of 408MW in the fourth quarter.
26
Power duration curves onshore. The power duration
30,000
100
[%]
24,000
80
18,000
60
curve shown in Figure 21 shows the number of hours in a

year in which feed-in from WTs is above a certain power. The
particular on the physical spread of WTs installed. The integral
of the curve corresponds to the annual energy yield. It must be
remembered in analyzing the power duration curve that this is
Power [MW]
graph is dependent on the magnitude of prevalent wind, and in
12,000
40
Power duration curve 2014
a depiction of the German wind farm, resulting in compen-
Power duration curve 2013
Total percentage of electricity production
sation effects and so marked differences from classic power
6,000
20
duration curves for individual WTs and wind farms. This means
that very high and very low power outputs are seldom seen.
0
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Number of hours per year [h]
The high level of turbine installations in 2014 has meant higher

power values are being fed in more often. Half of the onshore
Figure 21: Onshore power duration curve for 2014,
wind yield in 2014 was concentrated on the 1,682most wind-
rich hours of the year. In 2014, WTs with a capacity exceeding

4000 MW were on the grid half of the time - this value was
3728MW in 2013.
Capacity duration curve offshore. The more uniform
600
100
[%]
450
75
mean that higher powers were generated more often. The

different graphs for capacity duration curves in Figure22 result
from the doubling of capacity during 2014. What must also be
remembered is that the majority of WTs installed in 2014 were
Power [MW]
wind conditions offshore and the higher wind speeds there

300
50
Power duration curve Offshore 2014
Power duration curve Offshore 2013
Total percentage of electricity production
25
150
not connected to the grid until the end of the year, resulting in
a skewing of the capacity duration curve.
0
The irregular graph in the 3,000most high-yield hours in 2014
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Number of hours per year [h]
is attributable to the lack of compensation effects, because up
Figure 22: Offshore power duration curve for 2014,
to that point only a few offshore wind farms were able to feed
7,000
8,000
into the grid. During 105hours in 2014, no capacity was fed in

from offshore WTs, and capacity was below 20MW for 14% of
the time. Half of the electricity from offshore WTs in 2014 was
fed in during the 1,792most wind-rich hours.
27
Offshore grid
connection
Head ofce
1,112
993
MW 235 GWh
WT
North Sea
Brunsbttel
Grid operation and expansion
51 22 201
MW WT GWh
Baltic Sea
Jardelund
Bxlund
Rostock
21,852
GWh
The four control areas. In Germany, wind power is fed

into the control areas of TSOs TransnetBW GmbH, TenneT
Lubmin
19,573
GWh
TSO GmbH, Amprion GmbH and 50Hertz Transmission GmbH.

Shown in Figure 23 are the nominal capacity installed at the
Diele
14,545
MW
15,679
MW
end of 2014, the number of WTs and their wind power feed-in
level for every TSO. Just under 80% of generation capacity is
9,325
WT
10,754
WT
installed in the control areas of 50Hertz and TenneT. About the
Berlin
same wind power yield was fed in (about 20TWh each) in these
Dortmund
two control areas. The greatest capacity increase was 2.4GW

in 2014 in the control area of TenneT.
7,993
7,190
GWh
MW
4,861
WT
50Hertz Transmission GmbH
Feed-in management. Under certain circumstances, the
TenneT TSO GmbH
grid operators responsible are able to temporarily curtail feed-in

Bayreuth
Amprion GmbH
from WTs to avert overloading of the power grid. All measures

pertaining to conventional energy producers must be exhausted
beforehand however (14REA). Feed-in management details
are published by the BNetzA in autumn of the following year,
Stuttgart
616 442 654
MW WT GWh
TransnetBW GmbH
Comissioned in 2013
Comissioned since 2002
Suitable for repowering
the reason why the details up to the end of 2013 are discussed
in this section.
Wind energy feed-in

(extrapolation 2013)
As can be seen in Figure24, loss of production in 2013 rose

44% to 555GWh as compared to the previous year. Curtail-
Figure 23: Control areas of TSOs with installed wind capacity, number
ment of renewable energy generators affected 86.6% of WTs
of installations and wind energy feed-in level for 2014 for every
in 2013, compared to 93.2% in 2012. So the trend towards
control area, data sources: IWET [37], projection data from TSOs [35,
increased regulation of PV installations continues. The PV con-
36]
tribution towards total loss of production in 2013 was 11.8%,

1.2
Power output loss [GWh]
something reflected in the higher compensation payments.

Compensation payments, to which grid operators commit in
Part of total wind power production [%]
Part of total wind power production [%]
600
Power output loss [GWh]
accordance with 14REA rose to more than 43.7million. The
0.8
400
requests still outstanding [67].
200
0.4
In total 19 feed-in management measures were reported in

Germany. Most of these (95%) were in the northern states. The
contribution made by regulated wind energy production to
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0.0
Figure 24: Effects of feed-in managements, data source: Monitoring

report 2014 [67]
28
exact total cannot be determined precisely due to compensation
overall wind production was 0.93% in 2013[67].
Grid expansion onshore. The increased usage of renewables and the expansion of offshore wind energy are necessitating an expansion of the transmission grids. Since 2012,
The Energy Industry Act (EnWG) has stipulated that German
TSOs commit to presenting a joint scenario framework and a
grid development plan(GDP), both of which must be endorsed
by the BNetzA[68]. Whilst the scenario framework highlights
probable developments in the German energy landscape in
coming years, the GDP determines (based upon this) expansion
measures necessary for safe and reliable operation of the transmission grid[69].
To determine necessary measures, the grid operators apply the
NOVA principle (Grid Optimization before Enhancement before
Expansion). They first attempt to optimize network operation
before the network requires enhancement or expansion. If
the latter becomes indispensable, start and end points of new
sections are specified in the GDP.
For projects extending beyond the boundaries of states and
countries, responsibility for planning and approval lies with
the BNetzA. Strategic environmental analysis is conducted in
spatial planning on national level, in which corridors 500 to
1000meters in width are specified for the section[69]. According to the BNetzA, new power lines must be built alongside
railways, motorways and existing cables wherever possible. For
the Wilster-Grafenrheinfeld high-voltage DC section as part
Figure 25: Preliminary analysis results of BNetzA on 2014 GDP,
of the SuedLink project, TenneT has already submitted an
source: BNetzA [70]
application to departmental planning. Following the conclusion

of the process, the most suitable corridor is likely to be known
in 2016/17. The process will determine the planning approval
procedure including final route[71].
In the preliminary BNetzA analysis results for the 2014 GDP,
the extent of grid upgrading and conversion capable of being
endorsed was 3,050km. The requirement for new construction
amounts to 2,750km, 1,750km of which are HVDC corridors
[70].
29
In contrast to the draft proposal from the TSOs, the BNetzA

continues to deem only three HVDC corridors necessary (with a
transmission capacity totaling 8GW). The proposed CorridorB
to connect the Lower Saxony lowlands with southern Hesse
was again assessed as non-endorsable. On the other hand, the
proposed moving of the HVDC end point in CorridorC, and the
extension of CorridorD by 100km, were approved [70].
2009 saw the passing of EnLAG (the Electricity Grid Expansion
Act) to accelerate expansion of transmission grids. The current
version contains 23 projects with a total cabling length of
1887 km which are necessary for the future supply of energy
in Germany. At the end of 2014, only about a quarter of the
kilometers required had been completed (463 km). The TSOs
Figure 26: Preliminary analysis results of BNetzA for O-GDP in the
now anticipate completion of just 40% of the EnLAG cabling
North Sea, source: BNetzA [80]
kilometers by 2016. Furthermore, none of the pilot route projects for underground cables have come online yet, although
Amprion has started building work for the first 380 kV pilot
project in Raesfeld [72].
Offshore grid expansion. Offshore is seeing a slight relaxation with regards to grid connection difficulties. In addition to
existing grid connections for the alpha ventus, BARD Offshore1
and Baltic1 wind farms, Riffgat was fully connected by means
of a single connection in 2014[73], and Meerwind Sd/Ost with
completion of the HelWin1[74] grid connection. The Nordsee
Ost wind farm will also be connected to HelWin 1 in spring
2015 [75]. Also, the SylWin 1 and BorWin 2 grid connection
systems have been in a trial phase since the end of 2014[76],
meaning the completed DanTysk[77] and Global Tech1[78]
wind farms can be fully connected soon. The grid connection
Figure 27: Preliminary analysis results of BNetzA for O-GDP in the
for the first expansion phase of the similarly completed Tri-
Baltic Sea, source: BNetzA [80]
anel Windpark Borkum is planned during 2015 - with the

DolWin1[79] grid connection system which is yet to be completed.
30
The large number of offshore WTs planned and approved requires
In the North Sea, 13 different clusters have been identified
grid expansion planning which incorporates ecological, eco-
this way, and in the Baltic Sea another five. The standards for
nomic as well as physical influencing factors into the planning
these collective connections are 900 MW DC systems with a
approach. The departmental offshore plan developed by the
voltage of 320kV[81]. Clusters2 and 4-6 in the North Sea, and
BSH (Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency) is aiming at a
Cluster3 in the Baltic Sea, are reached with the grid connection
connection concept in the form of collective connections. Wind
systems already completed (see Figure26 and27).
farms which are physically related are grouped into clusters.
grid connection
Project
Nominal
power [MW]
Status
Fully commissioned
(planned)
alpha ventus
NOR-2-1
60
In operation
2010
BorWin 1
NOR-6-1
400
In operation
2010
Baltic 1
OST-3-1
50
In operation
2011
Riffgat
NOR-0-1
110
In operation
2014
HelWin 1
NOR-4-1
580
In operation
2014
SylWin 1
NOR-5-1
860
operational testing
2015
BorWin 2
NOR-6-2
800
operational testing
2015
Baltic 2
OST-3-2
340
Under construction
2014
DolWin 1
NOR-2-2
800
Under construction
2015
DolWin 2
NOR-3-1
920
Under construction
2015
HelWin 2
NOR-4-2
690
Under construction
2015
Nordergrnde
NOR-0-2
110
Under construction
2016
DolWin 3
NOR-2-3
900
Under construction
2017
Ostwind 1
OST-1-1
250
Under construction
2017
Ostwind 2
OST-1-2
250
Under construction
2018
Ostwind 3
OST-1-3
250
Under construction
2018
BorWin 3
NOR-8-1
900
Under construction
2019
NOR-3-3
900
planning
2022
OST-1-4
250
in approval procedure
2023
NOR-1-1
900
planning
2024
NOR-7-1
900
not approved
NOR-5-2
900
not approved
Table 2: Existing and planned grid connections in the German North and Baltic Sea, data sources: ONDP [82], BNetzA [74, 76, 77, 80]
31
In particular, it is to be those clusters near the coast and whose

REGIONAL MARKET VALUE FACTORS
associated wind farms are already under construction or whose

project progress is very advanced that are to be assigned exis-
In the special Regional market value factors for wind
ting or additional grid connections in the future[81]. As part
energy report on page 84, Fraunhofer IWES deals
of this, 2014 saw an offshore grid development plan (ONDP)
with the issue of whether WTs which attain lower
drawn up by the TSOs for a second time. In it, the grid connec-
yields in areas of weaker winds in the south, but
tion of clusters is regulated and planning dependability created
which feed into the grid at atypical times due to their
for wind farm operators and grid operators. For the (additional)
different feed-in characteristics are able to benefit
connection of some clusters, a binding grid connection com-
from this effect and attain above average revenues in
mitment is in place or realization of the grid connection has
the direct selling of wind power generated.
started (see Table2). The projects are denoted by means of a

sequencing of the name of the water area and the number of
The parameters of the market value factor are used
the cluster to be connected, and a consecutive number within
to assess the value of the wind energy electricity
the cluster.
generated dependening on the actual supply. The

simulation of wind power feed-in is based upon the
In the preliminary analysis results of the BNetzA on OGDP2014,
COSMO-DE model from the German Weather Service,
two additional DC power connections in the North Sea and
covering the area of the Federal Republic with about
one AC connection in the Baltic Sea are deemed necessary.
46,000 weather model areas. Following the graphic
Implementation of the projects is to be staggered, with 5years
determination of market value factors for scenario
required for each North Sea project and 3.5years for the Baltic
year 2023 in Germany, capacity-specific sales revenues
Sea project. Grid connections with a total capacity of 10.3GW
are assessed in relation to investment costs.
are planned. Of this capacity, just under 8.3 GW is currently

in the start grid, and so in operation or the realization phase
Finally, the report appraises whether any regional
(see Table2). Two lines each in the North and Baltic Seas were
grants are necessary to raise the attractiveness of
assessed by the BNetzA as non-endorsable for the time being
weaker wind regions and to compensate potentially
due to the reduction of offshore expansion goals (see Figure26
higher investment costs.
and Figure27). Also, the BNetzA would like to dispense with

the planned BorWin4 grid connection system[80, 83].
Pilot scenario B used in ONDP 2014 anticipates an offshore
wind capacity of 12.7GW for 2024. From 2015 however, new
scenario frameworks are in place according to which the Federal
Government has reduced the objectives for offshore expansion
from 10GW[84] to 6.5GW (3REA) by 2020. The approved
2025 scenario framework only shows an offshore generation
capacity of 10.5GW in pilot scenarioB [80].
32
As a consequence of REA reform, the future will see grid
farm) to attain subsequent allocation of the 450MW, and to
connection capacity be allocated using a new process. The
avert the bidding process[86].
decision on October23, 2014 meant allocation by the BNetzA

of additional connection capacity amounting to 326.2 MW
For integration into the European power grid, the BSH and
to the wind farms Riffgat, Trianel Windpark Borkum, Borkum
the Norwegian government approved in October 2014 the
Riffgrund1 and2, and for first time 735MW to Wikinger and
construction of a 623 km long power line from Germany to
Arkona-Becken Sdost. The Albatros (316 MW) and EnBW
Norway[87]. The NordLink HVDC undersea cable with a capacity
Hohe See (490MW) wind farms are to compete for the remain-
of 1400MW is to connect Norwegian pumped-storage hydro-
ing capacity (450 MW) on the NOR-8-1 cable by means of a
power plants to the German power grid from 2019 to simplify
bidding process[85]. In an out-of court settlement, EnBW was
the exchange of renewable energy. The start of 2015 saw the
able as the owner of both farms (after acquiring the Albatros
investment decisions made and and the contract awarded [88].
ALLOCATION OF GRID CONNECTION CAPACITY

The amendment to EnWG on August 1, 2014 has
Also, since August 2014, a loss of grid connection capa-
meant the allocation of grid connection capacity has
city is possible if no adequate progress in the projects
changed for offshore wind energy. The capacity to be
in question is evident. No later than 24months before
allocated by the BNetzA is, pursuant to 17d EnWG
completion of the grid connection, operators must fur-
and in due consideration of all existing grid connection
nish evidence of financing for their projects by means
commitments, restricted to a value of 6.5GW by 2020.
of binding delivery contracts for WTs, found-ations,
Thereafter this figure increases by 800MW every year.
substations and internal farm cabling. This list is not
Meanwhile, a transitional regulation means 7.7GW can
exhaustive. Furthermore, failure to commence const-
be allocated to meet the Federal Governments expansion
ruction work 12months prior to completion of the grid
goal of 6.5 GW by 2020. The BNetzA will open up an
connection, and failure to start operation 18 months
assignment procedure for allocation in a 9-month cycle,
after completion of the grid connection, can result in
provided connection capacity is still available. If demand
revocation of connection capacity (see 17dEnWG).
exceeds remaining capacity, a bidding process between

competing wind farms will decide on allocation[89].
33
34
onshore
Technical development
100
Expansion. In 2014 1,736turbines having a nominal capacity

of 4665 MW were built onshore in Germany, corresponding
80
to an increase of over 60% compared to 2013. This represents

the highest gross expansion in Germanys history, and eclipses
the previous record year (2002 with around 3200MW). Whilst
60
2,268WTs had to be constructed for a lower capacity in 2002,

only about two thirds of WTs were required in 2014 for a
DIBt - wind zone I

DIBt - wind zone II
DIBt - wind zone III
DIBt - wind zone IV
40
greater increase in capacity - due to the use of modern system

technology.
20
Locations. The Deutsche Institut fr Bautechnik (DIBt) splits

Germany into four wind zones in line with their wind condiinland locations), wind zone III (locations near to coast) and
wind zone IV (coast line) are defined - see Figure 29 [89]. In
the initial years of wind energy usage, expansion of new WTs
was concentrated primarily in wind zonesIII andIV where high
wind speeds are prevalent. As Figure 28a shows, most WTs are
now built in wind zonesI andII. The highest level of expansion
was in wind zoneII in 2014 (56%, 977WTs). Following on are
wind zoneIV with 20% (355turbines), wind zoneI with 17%
(292turbines) and wind zoneIII with 7% (112turbines). WTs
0
100
Proportions of new installed wind turbines [%]
tions. Wind zoneI (weak wind locations), wind zoneII (typical
80
60
40
5 MW
4-5 MW
3-4 MW
2-3 MW
1-2 MW
0.5-1 MW
< 0,5 MW
20
have mainly been erected on agricultural areas - see Figure30.

The strong level of expansion inland means the contribution of
woodland areas towards WT locations is expected to increase
in the future..
0
100
80
Turbine categories. For the analysis of turbines technology

development, WT types are divided into category DD (direct
60
Others
CS
IG
DFIG
PMSG
EESG
DD-PMSG
DD
drive), DD-PMSG (direct drive with permanent magnet generator),

EESG (gear mechanism with external excitation synchronous
40
generator), PSMG (gear mechanism with permanently excited

generator), DFIG (gear mechanism with doubly fed asynchronous generator), IG (gear mechanism with asynchronous gener-
20
ator), CS (fixed speed WT) and others (turbine types with other
concepts or inadequate level of detail). The name of a category
0
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
is based upon the most concise feature of the concept. Whilst

previously the turbine market was characterized by fixed speed
Figure 28: Annual WT installations by location category, capacity class
WTs, variable speed concepts are only being deployed nowa-
and installation concept (1995-2014), data sources: IWET [37], DIBt [89]
eno energy
35
days. At 46%, direct drive WTs from market leader Enercon are
DIBt - wind zone I
DIBt - wind zone II
DIBt - wind zone IV
dominating (see Figure41). Also strongly represented are gear

mechanisms with doubly fed asynchronous generator (28%)
and permanent magnet generator (18%).
Capacity classes. The trend towards more powerful WTs is
continuing - see Figure 28b. The 3-4 MW turbine class, with
48%, fell just short of the figure for the 2-3MW turbine class
now dominant for ten years. This class reached a figure of 49%
last year, presumably the last time it will experience the largest
level of expansion. The 1-2MW turbine class had dominated
the market for five years before. The WT capacity >5MW class
continues to be limited to the E-126 model from manufacturer
Enercon - which is erected only occasionally. The average nominal capacity of WTs erected in 2014 was 2.68MW, with 50%
of WTs having a capacity of 2.3 3.1MW. The total range of
nominal capacity installed was between 0.5 and about 7.6MW
(see Figure31).
Turbine size. 2014 saw a total of 44 different turbine
types and configurations with different rotor diameters and
hub heights erected in Germany. Whilst the capacity level of
Figure 29: DIBt wind zones assigned to postcode regions in Germa-
turbines, barring a few exceptions, is restricted to an interval
ny, data source: DIBt [89]
between 2.3 and 3.1MW, adaptation to location-specific conditions takes place by varying rotor diameter and hub height.
Grasland, dune, sand

0.5
Industrial units & artificial surfaces
Forest & semi natural areas
1.0
3.3
Figure 31 shows that the rotor diameters of turbines added

in 2014 are in the 40 to 154 meter range, with an average of
99meters. The longest rotor diameters on turbines designed for
the onshore market are on the EnerconE-126 and VestasV126,
with rotor diameters of 127 and 126meters. Only the Siemens
SWT6.0-154 and Senvion6.2M152 are longer - but these are
prototypes for the offshore market erected onshore.
Agricultural area
95.2
Figure 30: Distribution of existing installations in relation to area

usage types and analysis of distances to built-up areas, data source:
OpenStreetMap [90]
36
Onshore
The rotor diameter plays a key role for the capacity and yield of
160
160
8,000
0.8
a WT - this is because the rotor area determines the magnitude
140
140
7,000
0.7
of available wind flow and how much can be converted into
120
120
6,000
0.6
electrical energy by the WT. The variation options in turbine
100
100
5,000
0.5
design can be seen very well by comparing the Enercon E-126
80
80
4,000
0.4
(7.6 MW) and Vestas V126 (3.3 MW). The nominal capacity
60
60
3,000
0.3
differs by a factor of 2.3 for a virtually identical rotor diameter.
40
40
2,000
0.2
20
20
1,000
0.1
Wind speed increases (considerably depending on location)
with increasing height. Because the capacity contained by the
Hub height [m]
Rotor- [m]
Average
wind is proportional to the wind speed cubed, the hub height
Extreme value
0
0.0
Nominal power [kW] spc. nominal power [kW]
Median
upper/lower quartile
has a considerable impact on the WT yield. In 2014, the hub
Figure 31: Box plots for hub height, rotor diameter, nominal capacity
heights of WTs erected were between 50 and 149 meters
All WTs
and specific nominal
capacity of wind turbines installed in 2014,
(see Figure 31). The highest turbine erected in 2014 was the
data source: IWET [37]
Wts 2014
149meter tall Enercon E-101. On average, newly erected WTs
8,000
had a hub height of 115 meters, with 50% of WTs between

94 and 139 m. Height restrictions in place at many locations
6,000
erected WTs.
If the hub height is taken in relation to the respective DIBt
wind zone of the location (see Figure34), it can be seen that
Nominal power [kW]
however were reflected in some low hub heights of newly

Strong wind
4,000
2,000
Light wind
the expansion of WTs with low hub heights is broadly limited

to wind zones II, III and IV. Mainly large hub heights can be
found in wind zones I and II. Because at the coast high wind
20
40
60
80
Rotor diameter [m]
100
120
140
speeds are prevalent even at low heights, turbines with low hub
Figure 32: Nominal capacity by rotor diameter of different installation
heights can achieve high yields there. The high level of surface
types, data source: IWET [37]
roughness in low mountainous areas means good wind speeds
8,000
can only be attained at particularly high locations.
All WTs
Wts 2014
6,000
from new developments from system manufacturers. In the

onshore nominal capacity sector, Enercon continues to lead
market development with the E-126 (7.6MW). With dimensions of 126 and 127meters, Vestas (V126) and Enercon (E-126)
Nominal power [kW]
The trend towards greater turbine dimensions is also evident
4,000
2,000
currently sell the turbines with the greatest rotor diameters.

This record is set to be broken by the N131/3000, currently
being built by manufacturer Nordex (with a rotor diameter of
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
Hub height [m]
120
140
160
131meters) and Dutch company Lagerwey who will in the near
Figure 33: Nominal capacity by hub height of different installation
future be attaining even longer rotor diameters with their L132
types and configurations, data source: IWET [37]
37
Proportions of total installed WT/

Proportions of new installed WT 2013 [%]
40
30
and L136 prototypes. Other manufacturers are also extending
Growth DIBt I
Growth DIBt II
Growth DIBt III
Growth DIBt IV
Total DIBt I
Total DIBt II
Total DIBt III
Total DIBt IV
their product range, such as Vestas with a new variant of the

3 MW Vestas V126 platform, which can be adapted to the
respective location conditions with a broad array of hub heights,
nominal capacities and rotor diameters[91].
20
Accompanying the trend towards turbines with greater dimensions is the continual rise of average turbine capacity. At just
10
over 2.68 MW, the average capacity of WTs erected in 2014

grew by 3% compared to 2013. Turbines erected in 2014 have
0
0m
4
bis
60
40-
0m
8
60-
00
1
80-
120
100
140
120
r
ove
140
an average rotor diameter of 99.2m (a rise of 4.5% compared

to 2013) and an average hub height of 115.2m (a fall of 1.6%
Figure 34: Distribution of installations added in 2014 by DIBt wind
compared to 2013). The maximum hub height (since 2006) is
zones by tower heights; distribution of existing installations by tower
160m, and the maximum rotor diameter of an onshore WT is
heights, data sources: IWET [37], DIBt [89]
still 127m.
120
Rotor diameter [m]

Hub height [m]
Nominal power [kW]
With an average nominal capacity of 1.5MW, the average ca-
2,500
pacity of existing German installations grew by 6.7% compared

80
2,000
60
1,500
40
1,000
20
500
Nominal power [kW]
Hub height / rotor diameter [m]
100
3,000
to 2013 (see Figure36). Whilst the total capacity of installations

with capacities below 2 MW has remained broadly constant
(or fallen slightly) since 2004, a significant growth was again
noticeable in 2014 in the 2-3MW class, and in particular the
3-4MW class. With a total capacity of 5023.4MW, this class
grew by 107% in 2014. The most powerful category overall
1995 1997
1999
2001
2003 2005 2007 2009
2011 2013
continues to be 2-3MW installations, with 17,653MW. It has
Figure 35: Graph of installation size by year entering operation, data
shown a growth of just 10% however - for the third consecutive
source: IWET [37]
year. The class of most powerful installations (5MW and hig-
Power [GW]
30
20
her) continues to grow slowly and made up around 1% of the
40,000
5 MW
4-5 MW
3-4 MW
2-3 MW
1-2 MW
0.5-1 MW
< 0.5 MW
Number of WT
30,000
20,000
10
10,000
wind capacity installed in Germany in 2014, with 404.4MW.

Total number of turbines
40
0
1995 1997 1999
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
2011 2013
Figure 36: Cumulated depiction of installed capacity and number of

onshore wind turbines, data source: IWET [37]
38
Strong and weak wind turbines. The differentiation in

turbines for locations with better wind conditions (strong WTs)
and locations with less beneficial conditions (weak WTs), as are
evident in Figure32 and33, can be seen in the average specific
power per square meter of rotor area for the respective wind
zones, and on the basis of different growths in tower heights.
Figure37 shows the graph over time of the average of these
parameters in the four different DIBt wind zones. Installation types
are selected in line with the wind conditions prevalent at the
locations. In wind zoneI, WTs have the lowest specific nominal
power (341W/m on average), and in wind zoneIV the highest
(448W/m). Wind zonesII andIII lie in-between with 355W/m
Specific nominal power as a function of rotor diameter [W/m]
Onshore
500
460
DIBt - wind zone I

DIBt - wind zone II
DIBt - wind zone IV
420
380
340
300
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
and 377W/m. Overall, a trend towards lower specific nominal

power is evident for all wind zones. With a difference of over
Figure 37: Specific power by year entering operation within the
100W/m between wind zonesI andIV, the different specifica-
different DIBt wind zones, data sources: IWET [37], DIBt [89]
tions of projects is clearly evident.
it in proportion to the nominal power of the respective WT

also enables a specific nominal power [kW/m] to be determined. As would be expected, this is far higher in wind zoneIV
(31.1 kW/m) than in wind zoneI (19.9kW/m). Wind zonesII
and III lie just about on the marginal values with 21.7 and
29.1kW/m. The trend towards this overall growing specific nominal capacity per meter of hub height is conditional upon the
simultaneously increasing rotor diameter, having a quadratic
effect on the power attainable in theory.
The reasons for the different trends are the extremely different
wind conditions at different locations. At the coast, installations
Specific nominal power as a function of hub height [kW/m]
There is also a corresponding trend for hub height. Expressing
35
30
DIBt - wind zone I

DIBt - wind zone II
DIBt - wind zone IV
25
20
15
10
0
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
with high capacities and relatively short rotor diameters are
Figure 38: Nominal capacity in relation to hub height by year ente-
built - because good wind conditions mean high utilization of
ring operation within the different DIBt wind zones, data sources:
installations can be achieved. In low mountainous areas and
IWET [37], DIBt [89]
the lowlands of northern Germany, installations are often in

regions where wind conditions are negatively influenced by
obstacles such as forested areas. To utilize available wind resources to the greatest possible extent, installations with lower
nominal capacities and greater dimensions are deployed here.
On average, the specific nominal capacity of all installations
added in 2014 was 380.1W/m, a 2.4% increase over 2013.
39
5 MW
4-5 MW
3-4 MW
2-3 MW
1-2 MW
0.5-1 MW
< 0.5 MW
Nominal power
Number of wind turbines
2,000
1,500
Age structure. By the end of 2014, 1,194of the WTs installed
5,000
in Germany had passed the accepted service life of 20 years.

This corresponds to about 4.7% of existing installations, but
4,000
3,000
1,000
2,000
500
1,000
Rated power [MW]
2,500
only 0.55% of nominal capacity (average is 174 kW) - see

Figure 39. The anticipated dismantling of these installations
will therefore only have a minor impact on wind capacity
installed. The locations of these installations could be used
for repowering measures - to erect newer and more powerful
installations if so permitted at the locations by current planning
specifications. The possibility of an additional payment for
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32
Age [years]
is no longer relevant with the introduction of the new REA in
Figure 39: Age structure of wind turbines by installed capacity,

data source: IWET [37]
Senvion
9
DeWind
1 Others
Siemens 3
4
Nordex
7
2 5
Installed
capacity [%]
Number of
WTs [%]
7
GE Energy
7
Enercon
43
40
8
26
Vestas
26
Total:
25,382 WT
38,215 MW
Figure 40: Market share of installation manufacturers. in Germany,

basis installations in operation to 2014,
data sources: IWET [37], Fraunhofer IWES
Others
2
GE Energy
5 Siemens
2
Nordex
9
6 21
10
Senvion
15
Installed
capacity [%]
Number of
WTs [%]
13
Enercon
43
46
22
Total:
1,736 WT
4,665 MW
Vestas
24
Figure 41: Market share of installation manufacturers in Germany,

expansion in 2014, data sources: IWET [37], Fraunhofer IWES
40
installation repowering previously provided for in the old REA

August 2014[92].
Onshore
Installation manufacturers. Existing German installations

(see Figure 40) are made up of WTs from over 40 different
FINDINGS ON AIR TRAFFIC AND NOISE EXPOSURE
manufacturers. But about 95% of existing installations come

from seven manufacturers. Enercon and Vestas assume special
The German Air Traffic Control Office has for the first
positions (16,679turbines, 66%). This means the share of leading
time permitted WTs to operate without continually
manufacturer Enercon has again risen slightly compared to
flashing lights. This has been averted with help from
2013.
the radar-aided systems from ENERTRAG and Airbus

Defense & Space. The equipment only switches the
The market shares for installation expansion in 2014 were con-
lighting on when an aircraft is at a height lower than
centrated mainly on four manufacturers, see Figure41. 46% of
600metres and within a radius of 4km of the WTs[93].
installed WTs were supplied by Enercon (801turbines), followed

by Vestas (22%, 383turbines). Around 70% of the WTs added
Because of the negative interaction between WTs and
were supplied by German companies. Senvion (formerly Repow-
VHF rotating beacons, multiple building bans are in
er) lost market share of 2 percentage points in 2014. With a
place for WT projects within a radius of 15km of flight
market share increase to 10%, Nordex remains unchanged in
navigation systems. Since the radius was increased from
fourth position. Manufacturers GE Wind Energy and Siemens
3 km to 15 km in 2009, clearance certification from
were also successful in increasing WT sales in Germany compared
the Federal Supervisor Office for Air Traffic Control is
to the previous year. It must be remembered in the analysis that
a requirement. A report by the Technical University of
the onshore installation market has grown almost 60% in the
Berlin has shown that no interference effects can be
past year. So the market share of Enercon for example dropped
verified outside a 3km radius[94].
slightly despite many more installed WTs..

A study by the Martin-Luther University in HalleWittenberg has addressed the issue of noise exposure
from WTs. The analysis at an example location showed that about 50% of residents did not particularly
notice the WTs. Also, the perception of noise reduces
with increased operational duration. No link between
a changed operating mode and the perception by
residents could be verified in the study[95].
41
Wind conditions
Yield index. The most important external influencing factor
for WTs on land is wind speed. It varies all the time and so is one
of the central technical and commercial uncertainties in wind
energy usage. Aside from short-term fluctuations, there are
also marked deviations of yearly values from long-term average
values. Not to mention regional differences due to geography
and topography. A study of longer-term wind characteristics
over time is therefore indispensable. Figure 42 shows wind
resources in 2014 in relation to the 20-year average on the
basis of the yield calculation for an example WT with a hub
height of 100 m and nominal capacity of 2MW. For southern
Germany and for large parts of the eastern Mediterranean
region, the yield index shows wind year 2014 is far below the
long-term average. On the other hand, the yield index is above
the long-term average for German coastal areas, SchleswigHolstein and offshore locations. The yield index is calculated
Figure 42: Wind resources in 2014 in relation to 20-year average,
by refining reanalysis data using a 3D atmospheric flow model,
data source: anemos GmbH
and by verifying the results using wind and yield data.

In Figure43, the majority of DIBT wind zones can be identified
using wind speeds from 2004 to 2013 (see Figure29), although
DIBT wind zone II south of the Danube is not absolutely clear
from the graphic. In central and southern Germany, better
wind conditions can be found in higher locations in particular.
Local location conditions. Local conditions prevalent at a
location, irrespective of the wider-area wind conditions, are key
in determining design and subsequent yield of a wind energy
project. These are shown below for an example location. Fraunhofer IWES has its own 200 meter wind measurement mast
as part of the Wind Energy Enland2 project funded by the
Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi). The
mast is on the ridge of the Rdeser hill in north Hesse. It is a
typical inland location in forested and complex territory.
Figure 43: Average wind speed [in m/s] 100 m above ground from
2004 to 2013, data source: anemos GmbH
42
Onshore
The differences in wind speed, depending on the height of the
Average
measurement point, are reflected in the daily cycles of mean
7.5
constant at low heights, the highest mean wind speed occurs

at high hub heights at night. The reason for this phenomenon
is incident sunshine. Whilst at night the different air layers are
able to move broadly unhindered at different wind speeds,
incident sunshine during the day results in heating of the
Average wind speed [m/s]
wind speed shown in Figure44. Whilst the daily cycle is more
2014
200 m
120 m
60 m
2012-2014
200 m
120 m
60 m
6.5
5.5
air near the ground. The resultant uplift causes an exchange

between air layers and so a stronger coupling. Whilst the low
air layers are accelerated, the wind speed reduces at greater
4.5
heights[66].
18
16
10
12
14
Hour of the day
20
22
Figure 44: Daily cycle of wind speed for different heights on 200 m
Operatig results
Fraunhofer IWES measurement mast in 2014, and mean from 2012
Full-load hours. According to provisional data, German
to 2014, data source: Fraunhofer IWE
onshore WTs reached about 1,485 full-load hours in 2014,

meaning a trend downwards compared to 2013. Full-load hour
Full load hours baded at the end of the year

Influence of installation in the practicular year
figures for 2014 are based upon projection data from the TSOs.
2,000
to 10%. Accordingly, the full-load hour figure is also below the

5-year average (1,658) and the 10-year average (1,715). The
influence of capacity installed during the year resulted in an
uncertainty of about 12% for 2014 (see Figure45).
Hours at full load [h]
In the past, projection data underestimated actual figures by up
1,000
Figure 46 shows the average historical full-load hour figures

r-
ar
-
ea
ye
-y
5-
attained on average from 2008 to 2013 the highest yields
10
13
14
20
20
11
12
20
20
09
10
20
20
07
08
20
20
05
06
20
04
20
03
20
20
01
02
0
20
for 2014. WTs erected in the control area of TSO TenneT
20
in the TSO control areas compared to the preliminary figures
with 1,766full-load hours, 5% or so above the 5-year average
Figure 45: Trend for onshore full-load hours for the whole of Germany,
for the whole of Germany. With an average of 1,700full-load
data sources: [34, 35, 37]
hours, the installations in the control area of 50Hertz attained

the second highest full-load hour figure. The reason for the
average difference of 400full-load hours between WTs in the
control areas of TenneT and TransnetBW is the general prevalence of far better wind conditions at coastal locations. This
scenario can also be seen in the provisional data for 2014.
43
2,000
1,600
Average 2008 - 2012 based on Wts at the end of the year

2014 based on Wts at the end of the year
Investment costs. The costs for erecting WTs can be divided

into primary and auxiliary investment costs. Primary investment
Volllaststunden [h]
costs include expenditure for nacelle, tower, rotor blades,

transport and installation of the system. A study published
1,200
in 2013 by Deutsche WindGuard examined investment and

operating costs of WTs. Shown below (see Figure47) are the
800
findings for the installation types most commonly erected in

Germany - having capacity classes from 2MW to 3.5MW and
400
hub heights between 100 and 120 metres. Average primary

0
50Hertz
Transmission
GmbH
Amprion GmbH
TransnetBW
GmbH
TenneT TSO GmbH
Gesamt
investment costs amount to about 1,150 /kW, making up

more than 76% of total investment costs. Adding to this
auxiliary investment costs of 373/kW give a total investment
Figure 46: Full-load hours in the four TSO control areas (2008 - 2012),
figure of about 1,523/kW. Significant variations are possible
data source: [34, 35, 37]
depending on the respective project and location [93]. In the

2013 Electricity Generating Costs study, Frauenhofer ISE estimated total investment to be about 1,400/kW[94].
Opening up for development

Others
3%
6%
Planning
Grid connection
6%
5%
Operating costs. Operating costs are made up primarily

of maintenance and repair costs, operations management
costs, and lease and insurance payments. Reserve funds for
Foundation
4%
dismantling of the installation and other costs accruing are

also included in operating costs. Figure 48 shows operating
costs - the service life is split into two decades. In the second
decade, operating costs rise by about 11%. This is attributable
Main investment cost
76%
Total investment costs:

1,523 /kW
Figure 47: Breakdown of average total investment costs into primary

and auxiliary investment costs (for installation capacity 2 to 3,5 MW,
and 100 to 120 m hub height) [93]
44
to higher maintenance and repair expenditure. It must be noted

here however that the first and second decades are different
random samples[93].
Onshore
3
2.68
Electricity generating costs. Specific electricity generating

annual costs and the amount of electricity produced in the year
in question. Total annual costs are derived by totaling individual cost positions, whereby investment costs are spread over
individual years in consideration of the applicable interest rates.
Operating costs [ct/kWh]
costs, expressed in ct/kWh, are calculated as a ratio of respective
1.5
So indirectly, electricity generating costs also depend on the

attractiveness to investors of wind energy projects, the market
Other costs
Reserve
Insurance
Operational management
Lease
Maintenance and repair
2.41
2.5
0.5
price progression of raw materials, and fluctuations of interest

0
on borrowed capital[93].
1-10 years
11-20 years
The Leipzig Institute for Energy published the anticipated
Figure 48: Breakdown of operating costs over decades,
electricity generating costs for 2014 for onshore wind energy
data source: [93]
- 5.2 ct/kWh to 9 ct/kWh depending on wind strength and

size of installation [95]. Compared to other studies from
10
2013, 2014 saw a marked drop in electricity generating costs

(1-2ct/kWh). The study by Deutsche WindGuard for example
4.7ct/kWh to 7.8ct/kWh depending on location category and

2
electricity from black coal are likely to be met and undercut in
20
16
20
14
12
20
10
20
08
00
0
20
the long term[96].
20
installation capacity class. This means the costs for producing
EEG-initial remuneration
EEG-base remuneration
Repowering-bonus
SDL-bonus
Market premium non
remote controlled
Market premium
remote controlled
6
wind energy production on land are forecasted to range from
20
0
a marked decline. For 2020, electricity generating costs for
20
04
to 10.7ct/kWh [93,94]. The trend for coming years makes clear
20
02
to 11ct/kWh, and that by Fraunhofer ISE figures of 6.1ct/kWh
8
Remuneration [ct/kWh]
showed electricity generating costs ranging from 6.25ct/kWh
Electricity generating costs are also falling in other countries.
Figure 49: REA tariffs based upon the version amended on August 1,
A study by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory has
2014, data source: REA
ascertained that wind power has become the cheapest source

of electricity in the US. In 2013, the costs for newly concluded
electricity supply agreements were 2.5$ct (1.9ct) on average.
This price is possible with government funding (including tax
relief), without which costs would be around 4$ct/kWh[97].
45
operators and end consumers in Germany would also have had
Feed-in tariffs. Feed-in tariffs in Germany were initially
to fund green electricity installations from other EU member
regulated by the Electricity Feed-in From Renewables Tariff
states 102]. Member states will still have to consider con-
Act (StrEG), introduced at the start of 1991. At the time, the
cepts on funding renewable energy within other EU-member
payment was at least 90% of the average revenue per Kilowatt
states[103].
hour from the current delivery of electricity supply companies

to all end consumers. In April 2000 the StrEG was replaced
Base and initial payments. The REA regulates payments
by the REA. This has been amended several times since, the
by means of a yield-dependent payment amount. A reference
last time on August1, 2014. Tariff rates were changed, and a
yield is defined for this. The reference yield is the amount of
flexible cap for expansion and the obligatory direct selling for
electricity the respective installation type, including respective
new installations with capacities exceeding 500kW (to 2015)
hub height, would mathematically render at a fictitious refer-
and 100kW (to 2016) were introduced. The obligatory model
ence location with defined conditions over five operational
of direct selling is now standard practice on the market. 87% of
years (REA Annex2).
all WTs are remunerated this way as of August 2014[98]. The

level of feed-in remuneration remains definitive for payment
For WTs, the REA stipulates an initial payment for a minimum
through the market premium. Furthermore, the reference yield
period of five years and overall funding for 20years. The extent
calculation for determining the period for initial payment has
to which the feed-in tariff is then reduced to a base payment
been regulated anew.
is dependent upon the location quality. Since REA 2014, the

period of initial payment is defined as follows. At locations
Expansion of onshore wind energy is set to be between
with weak wind conditions, payment of the increased rate is
2400 and 2600 MW net per year ( 3, 29 REA). Previous
extended by one month for every 0.36% of minimum yield
expansion figures can be seen in Figure9. The EU guideline for
compared to 130% of the reference yield. In addition, the
government environmental protection and energy grants[99]
period extends by one month for every 0.48% of the reference
stipulates tenders from 2017 for wind farms having a capacity
yield by which the yield of the installation falls below 100% of
exceeding 6MW or with six or more installations. This means
the reference yield.
the financial funding of WTs in the future is to be regulated

with tender processes according to 2 Section5REA. The next
The tariff rate for new installations depends on the quarter in
REA amendment is due 2016 for regulating tenders in more
which it is installed. Those installed in 2015 receive an initial
detail. Figure49 shows payment rates currently applicable, and
payment of 8.9ct/kWh and a base payment of 4.95ct/kWh.
future rates in line with current legislation.
From January 2016, payments drop at the start of each quarter

by 0.4%, provided annual expansion keeps within the corridor
In 2014, the European Court of Justice confirmed twice
of 2400 to 2600 MW net. Otherwise, for an increased level
that national funding of renewable energy is possible under
of expansion, payments fall in line with the flexible cap as
European law. On September 11, 2014 [100] and on July 1,
specified in 29 REA. Similarly, payments can be higher for
2014[101], the European Court of Justice decreed that fund-
a lower level of expansion. If the corridor to 2800 MW is
ing systems for renewable energy providing funding only for
exceeded, payments reduce every quarter by 0.5% (0.6% at
electricity generated inland do not necessarily infringe the free
3000MW). For every 200MW of additional exceedance, the
movement of goods. If the court had decided otherwise, the
payment falls by another 0.2 percentage point up to a maxi-
restriction of funding installations in the Federal region laid
mum degression of 1.2 percentage points per quarter. For a
down in 2REA would have violated European law. Then grid
very low level of expansion, the payment is increased by up to
46
Onshore
0.4percentage points per quarter. The payment scenarios are

marked as corridors in Figure49. In the period in question for
TENDER PROCESSES
the first alignment of payments on January 1, 2016 (August

2014 to August 2015), around 2400MW of net wind capacity
The provision stipulated in the REA to introduce
was already added by the end of 2014. Therefore a payment
by 2017 tender processes for the financial support
reduction of 1.2% on January1, 2016 is to be anticipated.
of renewable energy electricity is laying down new

challenges to the industry and legislation process.
Direct selling. The REA amended in 2014 stipulates
Previous experience abroad with tender processes
obligatory direct selling - initially for all new installations with
has been mixed because the positive effects expected
capacities exceeding 500 kW, and from 2016 for all new WTs
with auctions have rarely been seen.
over 100 kW. Installation operators are therefore required to

offer for sale wind power directly. In August 2014, 87% of
The bid process for WTs is being introduced on the
installed wind capacity was in the direct sales process [98].
basis of experience gained from bids for free-field
The revenues of operator and direct seller are made up of the
Building upon this, Prof. Degenhart analyzes Effects
sales price attained and the market premium together. The
of tender processes in the special report on Page90.
level of the market premium is calculated monthly and retro-
Initial effects on the future realization of WTs can be
spectively as the difference between the value to be created
discussed already on the basis of this draft and under
(base/initial payment) and a mean market value at the EEX
certain assumptions.
PV installations as part of the next REA amendment.
energy exchange. The market premium can only be claimed for

installations with remote management.
Given the long upfront time periods required for WTs
The REA reform in 2014 means that base and initial payments
are possibly too short. Thus the industry needs to
for new installations can no longer be augmented with additio-
deal now with designing and debating the tender
nal bonus payments (such as system services and management
process for wind energy.
(up to 5years), the transition periods for legislation
bonuses). From 2015, management bonuses for existing installations will fall to 0.40 ct/kWh and 0.30 ct/kWh for remote
controllable and non remote controllable WTs respectively.
47
48
Offshore
Deployment globally. At the end of 2014, 2,693offshore

WTs with a capacity of 8498MW were installed (see Figure50).
capacity of 1,589MW, installed anew at sea (see Figure51). This
capacity is currently spread over 50farshore and 54nearshore
2,400
6,908
1,800
5,297
Power [MW]
2014 saw 443farshore and 2nearshore turbines, with a total
8,498
North America
Europe
Asia
Farshore
Farshore
Farshore
Nearshore
Nearshore Nearshore
wind farms. Farshore means offshore locations at least 3sea
1,909
miles (5.5km) from the shore (see 5Section 36REA). A nearshore location is accordingly less than 5.5km from the shore.
1,200
3,663
3,139
78 96 260
2000
600
1,282
1,133
816
720
469 630
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Below, wind farms are considered newly installed capacity when
Figure 50: Growth of nearshore and farshore wind power genera-
they are connected to the grid and are able to feed in power.
ting capacity, data source: Fraunhofer IWES
Europe is currently the leading region in terms of offshore wind
1,600
energy usage, followed by Asia. In the comparison by country,

by Denmark and Germany. Most of the 74European farms are
in the North Sea(37), the Irish Sea(11), and the Kattegat and
Baltic Sea (each with nine). Of the 28Asian wind farms, 14are
1,635
1,611
1,589
North America
Europe
Asia
Farshore
Farshore
Farshore
Nearshore
Nearshore Nearshore
1,231
1,200
Growth [MW]
the United Kingdom is playing the pioneering role, followed
Number of wind turbines
Expansion of offshore wind energy
800
627
523
in the East China Sea and six in the Japanese Ocean.
400
317
164
46
After a capacity of 1,611MW was installed in 2013, expansion
in 2014 meant a slight reduction (1589MW) - see Figure51.
209
161
18
2000
2002
96
90
2004
2006
149
2008
2010
2012
According to the plan, capacity in European waters should
Figure 51: Annually installed offshore wind capacity worldwide,
have increased much more strongly. The capacity installed in
data source: Fraunhofer IWES
2014
Europe by 2020 should be 44 GW according to the national

actions plans of EU states. An installed capacity of 8,050MW
in Europe in 2014 meant 18.3% of the expansion goal for
800
2020 was achieved [104]. 6000 MW must be installed every

year to meet the expansion goal of 44GW by 2020. However,
wind capacity figure of 23.5GW in Europe[105]. Capacities in
excess of 2500 MW must be added every year to achieve this
Growth [MW]
in its central scenario for 2020, EWEA assumes an offshore
600
West of
Duddon
Sands
Riffgat
Gwynt Y Mor
200
was reduced to 6.5GW, whilst 15GW instead of the original

25 GW are to be reached by 2030 (3REA) [84].
Meerwind
Sd / Ost
216.0
Northwind
amendment also meant the Federal Government aligning its

offshore expansions goals. The previous goal of 10GW by 2020
522.75
Nordsee Ost
400
goal. Even if the expansion rate of 1600MW is raised, offshore

expansion is progressing slower than planned. The 2014 REA
844.6
Westermost Rough
Global Tech I
0
Fife Energy Park
DanTysk
UK
Germany
Hyundai Test Turbine

5.5
Belgium
South Korea
Figure 52: Newly installed offshore capacity in 2014, data source:

Fraunhofer IWES
Wind farm DanTysk

Vattenfall
49
As has been the case over recent years, 2014 has seen expanFarshore
Nearshore
sion of wind energy at sea, especially in the UK. With 845MW
South Korea
<1
Belgium
14
and 231WTs, the UK represents 53% of new installations (see

Installed
capacity [%]
Figure52 and53). Compared with other countries, the UK has

been in pole position since 2009 and has (with 3700MW) over
half of the installed capacity worldwide (see Figure54). In the
16
32
Germany
33
UK, auctions are used to allocate leasing rights for obtaining
Number of
WTs [%]
offshore projects. The third round of tenders alone was for

32GW[106].
52
UK
53
In Germany, 141WTs in five farms with a capacity of 523MW

were erected and connected in 2014. The Nordsee Ost, Global
TechI and DanTysk wind farms entered partial service (trialing).
Total:
445 Wind turbines
1,589 MW
Belgium completed the Northwind farm, with a capacity of

216 MW, and continues to be in fourth place on the list of
most important offshore countries worldwide (see Figure55).
Figure 53: Worldwide offshore expansion in 2014, data source:
After China and Japan, South Korea is another Asian country
Fraunhofer IWES
driving forward the deployment of offshore wind energy. A

test installation rated at 5.5MW was connected to the grid in
2014[107].
Sweden
3
Others
2
Netherlands
China 5
5
Belgium
7
London Array (630MW), Gwynt Y Mor (576MW) and Greater

Gabbard (504MW) are the three largest offshore wind farms
Installed
capacity [%]
in British waters. Following are German wind farm BARD Off-
3 2
shore1 (400MW) and Danish farm Anholt (399MW).
4
8
Germany
10
Number of
WTs [%]
15 nations, nine EU countries, China, Japan, Norway, South

Korea, USA and Vietnam generated electricity in 2014 with off-
12
48
UK
53
15
Denmark
19
Total:
2,693 Wind turbines
8,497 MW
shore WTs. Denmark has long held the mantle of pioneer. The
first large-scale commercial offshore wind farm was built there.
Denmark currently has 519offshore WTs with a total capacity
of 1,271 MW. The seven most important offshore countries
are increasingly behind expansion of farshore capacity. More
than 3000 MW has been added over the last two years (see
Figure55 and61).
Figure 54: Globally installed offshore wind capacity and wind turbines,
Many nations are readying themselves for their entry into com-
mercial offshore wind energy usage. Japan, South Korea and

the US are gaining initial experience with smaller installations.
Norway, USA, Canada, Brazil and India are planning to develop
50
Offshore
4,400
Farshore
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
till 2003
4,177
4,000
3,600
3,200
2,800
Installed nominal power [MW]
2,400
2,000
1,600
1,168
1,200
1,032
800
713
400
228
104
121
0
400
328
268
104
12
Nearshore
19
95
China
Netherlands
713
371
247
216 / -
-/-
-/-
-/-
154 / -
-/-
-/-
- / 48
80 / -
148 / -
- / 128
-/-
-/4
128 / -
-/-
- / 74
-/-
-/-
60 / -
165 / -
102 / 59
-/-
-/-
230 / 7
-/-
30 / -
-/7
-/-
- / 30
-/-
-/-
-/5
-/-
-/-
120 / -
-/-
100 / -
-/-
-/-
-/-
2/-
105 / -
110 / -
United Kingdom
Denmark
Total 2014
4,504
1,271
1,044
Growth 2014
838 / 7
-/-
523 / -
Growth 2013
718 / 62
349 / -
240 / -
Growth 2012
1,221 / -
50 / -
Growth 2011
313 / -
-/4
Growth 2010
621 / -
207 / -
Growth 2009
126 / 195
Growth 2008
Growth 2007
Germany
Belgium
Sweden
far- / nearshore
216
Growth 2006
90 / -
-/-
-/3
-/-
-/-
3/-
-/-
Growth 2005
90 / -
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/-
Growth 2004
60 / 60
-/-
-/5
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/4
331 / 93
-/-
-/-
-/-
- / 19
11 / 13
Zubau
2002
Till 2003
Zubau 2001
Figure 55: The most successful offshore countries worldwide, data source: Fraunhofer IWES
51
Offshore expansion in France and India

France has the second largest level of hydro-electric and
Since January 2014, India has been working with the
wind energy potential in Europe and, with 11 million
GWEC on drawing up an Offshore Wind Outlook, and
square kilometers of usable sea area, has the second
a development path for offshore wind energy in India
biggest potential worldwide. France is home to several
to 2032[110].
respected representatives of the maritime energy sector

in EDF, GDF, Suez, Alstom and Areva.
Indias coastline is 7,600km long, and is to be opened

up for offshore wind energy. In October 2014 planning
In the second round of tendering in May 2014 a to-
took shape for the first Indian offshore wind farms. In
tal capacity of 1000 MW of offshore wind farms have
addition to the Indian ministry for energy, many local
been allocated, comprising of 124 WTs each rated at
partners are involved in the pilot wind farm, rated at
8MW from Areva. Construction is scheduled to start in
100 MW and on the north-west coast of India (Guja-
2019 [108]. A capacity of 1.9 GW was allocated in the
rat) 111].
first round of tendering in 2012. Construction is set to

start in summer 2015[109].
Indian wind power giant Suzlon is also planning the

construction of a separate offshore wind farm with a
Also, three innovative projects are to be financed with
capacity exceeding 300MW, also in the state of Gujarat.
the Future investments program[110]:
Whilst Suzlon is one of the worlds biggest builders of
Pile & Tide develops lower cost and reliable
WTs, it does not have any experience in the offshore
methods for anchoring offshore WTs to the sea
sector. Offshore installations could therefore come from
bed.
Senvion - a fully owned subsidiary of the Suzlon group
Windkeeper develops ships deployed for the
from 2011 to 2014[112, 113].
upkeep and maintenance of wind farms.

Prismer researches a low cost and reliable system

for routing WT electricity to land.
52
Offshore
offshore projects in coming years. In the USA, the first approved

offshore wind farm, Cape Wind, with 130WTs and a capacity
of 468MW, is to be connected to the grid in 2015. Other projects are in the planning phase[108]. The Indian government is
also planning on entering the offshore wind energy sector with
a national offshore agency[109].
Situation in Germany. In German waters, 141WTs with a
capacity of 523MW were connected to the grid in 2014. This
means a total of 250 WTs with a capacity of 1044 MW are
feeding into the German grid. Another 286 WTs with a total
capacity of 1269MW have been installed but are still without a
grid connection. This meant a total capacity of 2,313MW was
in place at the end of 2014, representing 23% of the expansion
goal of 10GW by 2020 (3, 29REA).
In the realization of offshore wind energy, Germany is
concentrating primarily on wind farms with high water depths
and long distances to coasts - so as not to impact the marine
environment in the Wattenmeer National Park. The locations
planned for German offshore wind farms differ considerably in
this regard to the locations of offshore projects already installed
internationally (see also Figure61).
A total of 42wind farms were approved in Germany by 2014,
36 in the North Sea and 6 in the Baltic Sea. The Nordergrnde
and Riffgat (North Sea), as well as Baltic1, GEOFReE and Arca-
Figure 56: Overview of wind farms in operation, being built, approved
dis Ost1 (Baltic Sea) wind farms are within coastal waters (or
and planned in the German North and Baltic Sea
the 12sea mile zone).
BSH 2014 [110, 111]
Wind farms having a maximum nominal capacity of 11,449MW

have been approved so far. Farms in the North Sea are planned
on average for a water depth of 29 metres and distance to
coast of 63.1 km. For the Baltic Sea, the water depth is
26.4metes and distance to coast 23.7km (see Table3 and4).
Other offshore wind farms with a total capacity of 18,264MW
are in the approval process. However, some of these wind farms
are assigned dual allocation of areas, meaning not all offshore
wind farms can be realized.
53
Wind farm name
Nominal
power [MW]
Water
depth
[m]
Distance from
shore [km]
Area [km]
Status
Alpha Ventus
60
30
43
In operation
Riffgat
108
18 - 23
30 - 42
13.2
In operation
2-8
0.4
0.16
In operation
ENOVA Offshore
Ems-Emden
4,5
0-2
0 - 0,6
0.2
In operation
Meerwind Sd / Ost
288
23 - 26
52.4 - 53
40
In operation
Hooksiel (Wilhelmshaven)
BARD Offshore 1
400
39 - 41
89 - 111
58.9
In operation
295,2
22 - 25
51.4 - 57
24
partly operational
DanTysk
288
21 - 32
70 - 74
70
partly operational
Global Tech I
400
38 - 41
109.4 - 115
41
partly operational
200
28 -33
65.6 - 66.3
56
completely installed
Innogy Nordsee Ost
Trianel Windpark Borkum

Phase 1 (Borkum West II)
Borkum Riffgrund I
312
23 - 29
54
35.7
Under construction
Amrumbank West
288
19,5 - 24
36 - 55
32
Under construction
Butendiek
288
17 - 22
32
34
Under construction
Gode Wind 01
330
26 - 35
40 - 42.1
37
financing secured
Latest start of
construction
30. 6. 2015
Gode Wind 02
252
26 - 35
33 - 34
29
financing secured
31. 12. 2015
Sandbank (Sandbank 24)
288
25 - 37
83 - 96
59
financing secured
31. 12. 2016
Albatros
316
39 - 41
57 - 113
39
Approved
1. 6. 2015
Gode Wind 04
252
30 - 34
33
29
Approved
31. 12. 2018
EnBW HeDreiht (2) (Hochsee Windpark He dreiht)
195
39
97 - 104
19
Approved
30. 6. 2017
Nrdlicher Grund
320
25 - 38
84 - 88
55
Approved
31. 12. 2016
200
28 - 33
65.6 - 66.3
56
Approved
332,1
26 - 35
44 - 47.3
34
Approved
1. 7. 2016
400
39 -41
114
50
Approved
1. 8. 2016
235
29 - 35
50 - 51.4
28
Approved
30. 6. 2020
295,2
26 - 34
47.3 - 48
36.45
Approved
1. 7. 2018
496
39 - 40
90 - 104
40.4
Approved
1. 6. 2018
Borkum Riffgrund 2
349
25 - 30
40
43
Approved
1. 7. 2018
Nordergrnde
110
4 -14
16 - 17.6
Approved
Trianel Windpark Borkum

Phase 2 (Borkum West II)
Innogy Nordsee 1
(Nordsee One)
Veja Mate
Delta Nordsee 1
(Enova Northsea)
Innogy Nordsee 2
(NSWP 3)
EnBW Hohe See (Hochsee
Windpark Hohe See)
OWP West
210
29 - 32
67 - 80
14.28
Approved
31. 12. 2020
Deutsche Bucht
210
39 - 41
98 - 117
22.6
Approved
30. 6. 2017
MEG Offshore I
400
27 - 33
60
40
Approved
26. 2. 2016
Kaikas
580
39 - 41
110 - 125
65
Approved
31. 12. 2019
Borkum Riffgrund West I
400
29 - 33
67 - 76
30
Approved
31. 7. 2016
54
Offshore
Innogy Nordsee 3
(NSWP 3)
EnBW HeDreiht (1) (Hochsee Windpark He Dreiht)
Delta Nordsee 2
(Enova Northsea)
360
26 - 34
47.3 - 49
29
Approved
1. 7. 2019
400
39
97 - 104
62.49
Approved
30. 6. 2017
160
29 - 33
39 - 42
9.59
Approved
30. 6. 2020
Table 3: Approved wind farms in the German North Sea (as of December 2014), data sources: BSH [112], IWES
Wind farm name
Nominal
Water
Distance from
Latest start of
Area [km]
Status
0 - 0,3
In operation
16 - 19
16 - 17,1
In operation
288
23 - 44
32 - 35,4
27
Under construction
Wikinger
350
36 - 40
35 - 39
35
financing secured
31. 12. 2015
Arkona-Becken Sdost
385
21 - 27
35 - 37
40
Approved
1. 10. 2016
Arcadis Ost 1
(Ventotec Ost 1)
348
41 - 46
17 - 20
29
Approved
power [MW]
depth
[m]
Breitling (Rostock)
2,5
EnBW Baltic 1
48,3
EnBW Baltic 2
(Kriegers Flak)
Summe
1421,8
shore [km]
construction
139
Table 4: Approved wind farms in the German Baltic Sea (as of December 2014), data sources: BSH [112], IWES
55
600
Expansion in German waters. The first test installations
1.200
at sea were installed nearshore between 2004 and 2008 by

Enercon[113], Nordex[114] and BARD[115] (see Figure57).
Nordsee
800
Ost
Growth [MW]
400
Meerwind
Sd/Ost
200
400
Baltic 1
ENOVA
Offshore
alpha
Emden Breitling Hooksiel ventus
BARD
BARD
2004
2011
2012
2006
2008
2010
BARD
Global
Tech I
Dan
Tysk
2013
2014
Nominal power [MW]
Riffgat
In 2009, alpha ventus signaled the start of farshore wind

energy usage in Germany. The official opening of this offshore
test field took place in April 2010. The North Sea wind farm
comprises 12WTs each with a nominal capacity of 5MW, and
lies 45km north of the island of Borkum at a water depth of
30m[116].
Figure 57: Expansion of German farms, data source: Fraunhofer IWES
April 2011 saw Baltic 1 enter operation, the first commercial

wind farm in the Baltic Sea. Baltic1 is off the coast of MecklenburgVorpommern, about 16km north of the Dar-Zingst Peninsula
and at a water depth of 19m. The 21Siemens WTs have a total
capacity of 48.3MW[117].
OFFSHORE EXPANSION
The BARD Offshore 1 farm first fed power into the grid in
2011 [118]. All 80 BARD 5.0 turbines have been on the grid
A few different scenarios on the potential course of
since August 2013[119]. The farm has been out of action for
German offshore wind energy have occasionally been
several month since March 2014 however after a smoldering
published. The special Scenarios on German offshore
fire damaged one of the central wind farm installations. Trans-
expansion report, authored by Fraunhofer IWES,
mission grid operator TenneT and operator Ocean Breeze are
provides on Page96 onwards an overview of six early
having the problems checked out by a task force[120]. BARD
and seven current scenarios.
Offshore 1 covers an area of 60 km and lies around 90 km

north-west of Borkum at a water depth of 40 m [121]. With
A classification of the scenarios is carried out and the
a total capacity of 400MW, it is currently the biggest offshore
future development of offshore wind energy estimated
wind farm in German waters (alongside Global TechI).
on the basis of the current expansion status and

existing project pipeline. Taken into consideration are
In August 2013, all 30Siemens WTs (108MW) were installed
current political and legal framework conditions, such
for the Riffgat farm. The region of the Riffgat North Sea farm
as REA, the grid development plan and grid connect-
is 14km north-west of Borkum in the German-Holland border
ion capacity.
zone. The farm was connected to the grid in February 2014 following a delay caused by the discovery of munitions[122].
Provided afterwards is an appraisal of whether the

expansion target defined by the Federal Government,
Construction work for the 1.3bn Meerwind Sd | Ost North
6.5GW by 2020, will be met.
Sea wind farm, the first farm financed by the Reconstruction

Credit Institute, started in September 2012. In April2013, all
monopiles were installed [123], and in April 2014 all 80 Sie-
56
Offshore
mens turbines (3.6MW)[124]. The official inauguration of the
32km north of Rgen, the Baltic2 wind farm is being erect-
288MW farm took place in November 2014 [125].
ed over 27 km. The farm is to have a capacity of 288 MW

and comprise 80 Siemens turbines (SWT-3,6-120). Monopiles
Following installation of the 80WTs from April to August 2014,
(2335m) or 3-legged jackets (>35m) are used depending on
Vattenfalls wind farm DanTysk was able to begin trial opera-
water depth. 68foundations, the substation and 34WTs were
tions at the end of 2014 with the first 21WTs. 70km west of
in place by the end of 2014. The farm is set to enter service in
Sylt, the remaining Siemens 3.6MW class installations, having
spring 2015 [128, 129].
a total capacity of 288MW, are gradually being connected to

the grid until spring 2015 [77, 126].
The Butendiek wind farm lies 32 km west of Sylt. Between

April and July 2014, all 80monopiles and the substation were
In the 41 km Global Tech I North Sea wind farm, 96 km
erected [130], and then the first 24WTs (SWT 3.6-120) were
from Borkum, all WTs were mounted on tripod foundations in
installed by the end of 2014. Completion and gradual starting
August 2014. Installation of the 80AREVA Wind M5000-116
operation of the 288MW farm is scheduled by June 2015[130].
WTs took seven months. In September 2014, cabling work was

completed and Global TechI connected up to the BorWin beta
The first installation for the Borkum Riffgrund 1 wind farm,
converter station[78]. By the end of 2014, nine WTs had fed
lying 37km off Borkum was put into place in October 2014.
in electricity for the first time in trialing. All turbines are set to
Installation and grid connection for all 78 Siemens turbines
enter service in spring 2015 - depending on the grid connection
(312MW) are to follow by summer 2015[131]. Whilst monopile
availability. With a total capacity of 400MW, Global TechI is
foundations have been anchored for 77WTs, one WT is being
together with BARD Offshore 1 one of the largest German
erected on a suction bucket jacket, a surface foundation
offshore wind farms.
from the gas and oil industry. This prototype is a 3-legged steel
structure with bucket foundations which are anchored in the
In the Nordsee Ost wind farm 30km north of Helgoland, all
bottom by means of suction technology[132].
48 WTs were erected by the end of 2014, with one turbine

connected to the electricity grid for trialing. The remaining install-
The first monopile foundation was installed for the Amrumbank
ations are to follow by spring 2015. With the 6MW turbines
West wind farm in January 2014 [133]. A total of 80WTs, each
from Senvion, the farm has a total capacity of 295MW[75].
3.6MW (288MW in total) are being installed over 32km. The

wind farm is to enter service in autumn 2015[134].
Additional expansion in German waters. In September

2012 began the first construction phase for the communal
Trianel Windpark Borkum (formerly Borkum WestII) offshore
wind farm with a total capacity of 200MW at a water depth
of 30m. In April 2013, all 40tripod foundations [127], and in
June 2014 all 40Areva turbines, were in place [79]. At the end
of 2014, the DolWin alpha transformer platform was not ready
to enter service and the grid connection was not yet established
by TenneT. 40 additional turbines with another 200 MW will
follow in a second expansion phase[79].
57
Technical development
100
Turbine size. At the end of 2014, the average nominal
Power class
5 MW
3 - 5 MW
2 - 3 MW
1 - 2 MW
< 1 MW
80
60
capacity of all offshore WTs installed was 3.15 MW. Now,

197 offshore WTs with a nominal capacity of at least 5 MW
are operational. Another 81 turbines of this size are erected.
Most of the turbines of this size are in Europe, with a few in
China and South Korea. At the end of 2013, Alstom had the
40
largest rotor diameter (150m) on the Haliade150-6 MW test

installation in the Belgian Belwind offshore wind farm [135]
20
Proportions of installed wind turbines [%]
until Samsung entered into operation the largest rotor dia0
meter currently in operation (171 m) - on the Scottish coast
100
in February 2014[136]. Since January 2014, Vestas has been

testing an 8MW prototype, currently part of the most powerful
offshore WT (V164-8.0 MW), in the onshore sterild WT test
80
field (Denmark) [137,138].

60
The average nominal capacity of newly installed offshore WTs

worldwide has risen from 1.9MW in 2000 to 3.6MW in 2014
40
20
(see Figure 59). Unlike Europe, China operates mainly WTs
Depth of water
40 m
20 - 40 m
10 - 20 m
5 - 10 m
<5m
with lower nominal capacities (class 1.5MW to 2.3MW) in its

nearshore farms. The high level of expansion of these turbines
is the reason behind the slight drop in average nominal capacity
from 2007 to 2008. In 2014, most wind farms entered service
100
with 3.6MW turbines from Siemens.

80
Offshore locations enable high nominal capacity yet comparably

low hub heights. The low level of sea surface roughness means
60
hub heights offshore (85m on average in 2014) are much shorter than on land (115m). The rotor blade lengths of offshore
40
20
0
2000
turbines are continually increasing however. While the average
Distance to shore
40 km
20 - 40 km
10 - 20 km
5.5 - 10 km
< 5.5 km
2002
2004
rotor diameter of a WT in 2014 was 115m the new models in

the 6MW class have rotor diameters of 150m and longer.
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Figure 58: Installation expansion by capacity class, water depth and

distance to coast, data source: Fraunhofer IWES
58
Offshore
120
purposes had been built at relatively short distances to the

coast, and in more flat water, the average offshore WT now
would be 21.5km from the coast and in a water depth of 15.5m.
Figure60 illustrates that increasing levels of experience meant
more and more projects were completed at greater distances
from the coast and in deeper water. In 2014, WTs were built on
Rotor diameter, hub height [m]
of offshore wind energy from the coast to far into the sea is
incremental. If the first wind farms still being used for trialing
Rotor diameter [m]

Hub height [m]
Nominal power [MW]
90
60
30
Nominal power [MW]
Distance to shore and water depth. The expansion
average 21.1km from the coast and in a water depth of 32.3m.

German offshore installations are on average 65km from the
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
coast and in a water depth of about 29m (see Figure61), and

so are on average the furthest from the coast when compared
Figure 59: Graph of installation sizes newly installed offshore,
to other count-ries around the world. Floating installations are
being trialed in different projects with greater water depths. In

Norway, the first prototype of a floating WT (Hywind - with a
capacity of 2.3MW) was erected in 2009 at a water depth of
over 200m [139]. The Gwind[140] and Sway projects are also
projects are being carried out - such as Windfloat in Portugal,
Poseidon37 in Denmark[142] and VolturnUS in the US[143],
as well as projects in Japan.
Figure61 shows the average distance to coast and water depth
Average water depth [m]

Average shore distance [km]
being trialed in Norway[141]. Other research and development
32
Average water depth [m]

Average shore distance [km]
24
of European offshore installations. The floating Norwegian test
16
installations are not shown for reasons of clarity. Apart from

countries with floating WTs (Norway (215 m) and Portugal
(48 m)), the WTs in the greatest average water depth are in
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Germany (29 m). Turbines in Finland (6m) and Sweden (9m)
Figure 60: Graph of average distance to shore and water depth of
have been erected in the shallowest water depths. The greatest
newly installed offshore wind turbines, data source: Fraunhofer
average distances to shore are in Germany (65km) and Belgium
IWES
(37km). The offshore wind farm with the greatest distance to

shore is currently Global Tech 1 (112 km from the German
shore). Installations in Finland have the shortest average distance
to shore (4km).
59
50
Portugal
Foundation structures. Because offshore WTs are increasingly being erected in deep waters, foundation structures
40
Depth of water [m]
represent one of the central challenges. Accordingly, different

designs of foundations have been developed, tested and
Germany
30
deployed. Whilst only gravity and monopile foundations

were used at the beginning, seven different structures are in
Belgium
20
use today. In addition to high-rise pile caps deployed in Asia,
Netherlands UK
Ireland
Denmark
Sweden
10
jacket, tripile tripod and floating foundations are also being used.
Suction bucket foundations and artificial islands are listed under
Finland
others (see Figure62).
10
40
30
Distance to shore [km]
20
50
70
60
Figure 61: Water depth and distance to coast of European offshore
The individual constructions are suited to different location condi-
wind farms by country (without floating test installations in Norway),
tions. Gravity, monopile and high-rise pile caps are used mainly
in calm waters near the coast. Of the foundation structures

used commonly, the high-rise pile caps used only in Asia are
Proportions of installed wind turbines [%]
100
on average in water 3.7m deep and 2.5km from the coast,

both in the calmest of waters and at the lowest distances to
sonstige
high-rise pile cap
floating
tripile / tripod
jacket
monopile
gravity
80
60
coasts. The tripod and tripile foundations are furthest from

coast - 96.5km on average. Floating structures, in water 78m
deep on average, are still in the trialing phase. Figure shows
the distances to coast and water depths for which the different
40
foundation structures are used.
20
The start of 2015 is seeing a new offshore foundation tested

in the Fcamp wind farm in the English Channel. The Seatower
Figure 62: Graph of foundation structures used for offshore install-
Cranefree Gravity foundation is a concrete structure which is
ations, data source: Fraunhofer IWES
slowly flooded on site and lowered to the sea bed. Given the
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
right weather conditions, tugs are able to tow the floatable
80
floating
foundation to the correct location and lower it without any

noisy pile driving work[144].
Depth of water [m]]
60
40
tripile/tripod
jacket
20
monopile
gravity
artificial island
high-rise pile cap
bucket
0
0
20
40
60
Distance to shore [km]
80
100
120
Figure 63: Water depths and distances to coast by foundation structure,

60
Offshore
Installation manufacturers worldwide. Of all the
Farshore
Nearshore
Others
1
Areva
3
manufacturers of offshore installations, it is Siemens who
Vestas
14
dominate the global market. Of the offshore capacity totaling

8,497 MW, Siemens installations provide 62% (5,305 MW)
21
16
Installed
capacity [%]
- see Figure 65. This dominant position is also evident in the

figures for new constructions - 82% of capacity added in 2014
Number of
81 WTs [%]
was with Siemens installations (see Figure64).

The second biggest share of the overall market behind Siemens
is held by Danish manufacturer Vestas. With 631 Vestas tur-
Siemens
82
Total:
445 WTs
1,589 MW
bines, a nominal capacity of 1,651 MW is installed offshore,
Figure 64: Market shares in global offshore expansion in 2014,
corresponding to 19% of the entire offshore capacity (see
Figure 65). Other turbine manufacturers with a maximum

market share of 5% are Senvion and BARD. 34 other manu-
Farshore
Nearshore
BARD
5
Senvion
6
facturers make up the other WTs - with a nominal capacity of
Others
5
Installed
capacity [%]
611MW and a market share of 7% (see Figure10).
Vestas
19
33 8
German turbine manufacturers. Given that installed
23
capacity in German waters was doubled in 2014, the market
Siemens
62
compared to 2013. With a share of 50% in 2014, Siemens has

Figure66).
Sinovel
2
Number of
WTs [%]
situation for turbine manufacturers has changed significantly

now also taken up the role of market leader in Germany (see
60
Total:
2,693 WTs
8,497 MW
Figure 65: Market shares of existing offshore installations worldwide,

Farshore
Nearshore
Others
Areva
7
1
Installed
capacity [%]
61
BARD
39
59
32
3
Total:
257 WTs
1,044 MW
Number of
WTs [%]
Siemens
50
Senvion
4
Figure 66: Market shares of existing offshore installations in Germany,

61
10.5
Wind and wave conditions
FINO1
FINO2
External conditions. High wind speeds have a positive
10
Average of wind speed [m/s]
effect on yields, but offshore WTs are exposed to factors other

9.5
than the wind - such as waves, currents and ice drifts.
Offshore WTs are therefore exposed to greater forces and must

8.5
be more robustly designed overall. In addition to strengthening

of mechanical components, increased protection against
corrosion is also necessary. Corrosion endangers the surfaces

14
ar
-
of tower, nacelle and rotor blades, and electrical contacts.
5-
ye
13
20
20
11
12
20
20
09
10
20
07
06
08
20
20
20
05
20
20
20
04
7.5
Figure 67: Average wind speed from recent years at FINO1 (90m)
Wind conditions. The results of the FINO measurement
and FINO2 (92m) locations, data source: BSH [146]
stations, funded by the Federal Government, show that far

improved wind conditions are prevalent offshore compared to
0.09
FINO1: 2014
FINO1: 2010-2013
FINO2: 2014
FINO2: 2010-2013
0.08
Relative frequency
0.07
good coastal locations[145].
0.06
Figure67 shows the mean wind speeds from recent years at a
0.05
height of 90m in the North Sea (FINO1) and 92m in the Baltic
0.04
Sea (FINO2). In the 6-year average, wind speeds measured in
0.03
the Baltic Sea (9.38m/s on average) were slightly higher than in
0.02
the North Sea (9.30m/s). The average wind speed measured in
0.01
2014 by FINO1 (8.89m/s) was also below 9.95m/s measured

at the FINO2 location. This is down to an improved wind year in
0.00
5
10
15
Wind speed [m/s]
25
20
30
the Baltic Sea and a poorer wind year in the North Sea compared
Figure 68: Frequency distribution of wind speeds in 2014 compared
to previous years. This is also backed up by the anemos analysis
to 4-year mean at FINO1 (90m) and FINO2 (92m) locations,
of wind resources in 2014 in relation to the 20-year mean.
data source: BSH [146]
Figure42 shows for the Baltic Sea a level 5% higher in 2014 as

N
NW
FINO1
FINO2
compared to the mean.

Figure68 compares the frequency distributions of wind speeds
NE
at FINO1 and FINO2 locations at heights of 90 m and 92 m.

The approximated Weibull distribution confirms that 2014 was
W
a weaker year in the North Sea (FINO1), whilst higher wind

speeds than in the observation period from 2010 to 2013 were
achieved in the Baltic Sea (FINO2).
.
SW
SE
Figure 69: Wind direction measurements at heights of 90m and 92m

in 2014 at the FINO1 and FINO2 locations, data source: BSH [146]
62
The prevailing wind directions at FINO1 were south-west and

east in 2014. At FINO2 wind was mainly from the south-west
and south-east (see Figure69).
Offshore
Wave heights and accessibility. Accessibility by ship to an

offshore WT is determined primarily by wave heights. Weather
FINO1: 2014
FINO1: 2010-2013
FINO2: 2014
FINO2: 2010-2013
generally denoted weather days. Waves this high and higher

mean WTs can no longer be reached safely by work boats. Data
from FINO1 and FINO2 from 2010 to 2014 was analyzed to
compare wave heights in the North and Baltic Seas. Figure70
shows the distribution of mean significant wave heights of both
Relative frequency [%]
situations with a significant wave height (Hs) exceeding 1.5m are

20
10
measurement platforms in 2014 and the average from 2010 to

2013. In the North Sea (FINO1), relatively high significant wave
heights compared to the Baltic Sea (FINO2) can be seen. This
2
3
Significant wave height [m]
means lower levels of accessibility in the North Sea.

Figure 70: Distribution of mean significant wave height for FINO1
A monthly comparison of mean significant wave heights for
and FINO2 2014, and mean from 2009 to 2013,
the FINO1 and FINO2 measurement stations also shows a
data source: BSH [146]
lower mean wave height in the Baltic Sea. The missing values
in Figure71 are due to the low data quality at these times. It
2.5
is for this reason that the mean shown for March at the FINO2
(which could explain the relatively high value).
The relatively lower wave height in summer is evident at both
locations. Because lower wind speeds are also prevalent in
summer, most operators schedule their maintenance work
Average wave height [m]
measurement point is based only upon the previous years value
FINO1: 2014
FINO1: 2011-2013
FINO2: 2014
FINO2: 2011-2013
2.0
1.5
1.0
during these months.

0.5
However, restricted accessibility means that existing access

systems must be optimized for efficient deployment of offshore
wind energy. This area is still the subject of intensive research.
0.0
January
March
May
July
September
November
The objective is to develop systems which are designed for
Figure 71: Monthly comparison of mean significant wave heights in
higher significant wave heights and guarantee safe transfer of
2014, and mean from 2011 to 2013 at FINO1 and FINO2,
personnel - in turn to minimize the number of weather days.
data sources: BSH [146]
63
5,000
Operating result
Average of hours at full load

Annual hours at full load
Full-load hours. A comparison of performance of different
Volllaststunden [h]
4,000
WTs at different locations is made by scaling the annual energy

delivery to the nominal capacity of the WTs. The number of
3,000
equivalent full-load hours calculated this way depends greatly

on the power curve of the WTs in question and the location
2,000
conditions.
Average value for the hours at full load onshore

1,000
Figure 72 contrasts the full-load hours of different European
ev
st
No
sR
Ny
rn
Ho
rth ed
H
Sc
ro oyle
by
Ke San
nt
d
ish s
Fla
ts
Eg
B
m
a
on rro
w
d
aa
n
Ze
Bu
e
rb
o
Ba
nk
Lil
lg
ru
n
Rh d
yl
Ho Fla
ts
rn
sR
e
Ro v 2
bi
n
Ri
a
G
gg
un lph
a
fle
v
e
et
Sa ntu
s
nd
sI
Ro + I
ds I
an
d
2
Th
En
a
BW ne
t
Ba
W
al
ne ltic
1
y
Ph
as
e
1
Beginning 2002 2003 2004 2004 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011
of operation
offshore wind farms with a total nominal capacity exceeding

45MW with the full-load hours of German onshore installations
over the last 10 years. Considerably more full-load hours are
reached offshore than onshore. The first commercial German
Figure 72: Offshore full-load hours of different wind farms from a
offshore wind farm, alpha ventus, reached almost three times
nominal capacity of 45 MW,
as many full-load hours in its first year of service as an average
data source: wind farm operators [147152]
onshore WT.
1,400
1,200
Wind energy yield [GWh]
1,000
Significant differences are evident between individual wind

1,312.7
Baltic Sea (direct)

Baltic Sea (REA)
Baltic Sea (preliminary)
North Sea (direct)
North Sea (REA)
North Sea (preliminary)
farms erected nearshore to exhibit a lower number of full-load

hours than their younger equivalents erected farshore. In
1,027.4
Horns Rev1, the number of full-load hours in the second year
800
of service fell to about 60% of the long-term average. Other
721.7
wind farms also had individual results which differed greatly -
568.1
600
attributable to technical difficulties in early operational phases

(see Figure74).
400
173.7
200
Offshore wind power yield in Germany. The projections
37.5
0
farms and their years in service. The trend is for older wind
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
of TSOs show a rise of 285GWh compared to the previous year

(1,313GWh of offshore wind power yield in Germany in 2014).
Figure 73: Offshore wind power yield in Germany,
This is due to the effect of the added generation capacity to-
data sources: Annual REA statements [3034], offshore wind ener-
taling 522MW. Figure73 also shows that all offshore capacity
gy online projections [36]
has been sold directly since 2013.
64
Offshore
100
Average availibility onshore
Availability. The goal of maintenance is to attain a high
alpha ventus
2011
2012
2007/2008 Barrow
2008/2009
10
06
20
20
06
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Egmond
Kentish Flats
2006
2007
2008
20
20
05
04
2005
2006
2007
2004/2005 North Hoyle

2005/2006
2006/2007
03
20
Samso
2004
2005
2006
20
20
03
20
00
20
01
exhibit availability in the bandwidth of average onshore availa-
03
50
nominal capacities and which are relatively close to the coast
20
Whilst older farms comprising turbines with relatively low
Nysted
60
ferent offshore wind farms, in order of time entering service.
Utgrunden
are expected. Figure74 shows the technical availability of dif-
70
Middelgrunden
weather conditions) generally mean lower levels of avail-ability
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
associated challenges (such as accessibility and exposure to
80
2000
99% [153]. For offshore projects, the particular location and
Availibility [%]
Modern WTs on land generally reach an availability of 97% to
Scroby Sands
1.5 MW
2 MW
2.3 MW
3 MW
5 MW
90
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
level of technical availability of WTs whilst keeping costs down.
Beginning of operation
bility, the availability of newer farms erected further from the
Figure 74: Availability of offshore wind turbines,
coast is much lower in part. Whilst high availability levels are
data source: wind farm operators [148150, 154, 155]
also attainable in these areas, as alpha ventus and Egmond aan

8,000
Figure75 provides an overview of specific investment costs of

European offshore wind farms over 45MW. The major discre-
2004
2004
2005
2006
2007
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2011
2012
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2014
attained.
2,000
2007
2013
with much more effort. However, higher wind yields can be
2006
2008
than on land, and maintenance and servicing work is associated
2010
2011
2013
2014
2014
WTs are at sea. Mechanical loads when in operation are greater
4,000
2002
2003
2009
2010
2013
on land. The foundations, cabling, installation and operation of
2010
2012
for offshore wind energy usage are generally much greater than
6,000
Belgium
China
Denmark
Germany
Netherlands
Sweden
UK
Be
Th lwi
o n
Th rnt d P
or on ha
nt B se
on an 1
Do No Ba k 2
ng rth nk
Jia hai win 3
ng Br d
su idg
Ru e
Ho do 1
rn ng
s
Ho N Rev
r n ys 1
Ro s R ted
ds ev
an 2
Al An d 2
h
p
BA EnB ha olt
RD W Ven
M
B t
ee Off alt us
sh ic
r
w
Pr
o 1
in
in
d R re
se
Eg S iffg 1
sA
m
d
m
on / Oat
al
d
s
ia
a
an t
W
in
Ze
df
e
ar
mL
il
Ka lgru
re nd
N ha
Sc ort mn
ro h
Ke by Hoy
nt Sa le
ish nd
Bu B Fla s
r a t
In bo rrows
ne
B
r D ank
G
owLyn
un
e R Rhy sin n
et ob l F g
Sa in lat
W nds Rig s
g
al
ne T I +
h
W y P an II
G aln Or has et
Lo Sh reat ey mo e 1
nd er er Ph nd
on ing Ga ase e
Ar ham bb 2
a
ra
W
es Lin y P Shord
t o cs ha a
f D Of se l
ud T fsh 1
do ee ore
n ssid
Sa e
nd
s
Costs of offshore wind energy. The technical challenges
Specific investment costs [/kW]
maintenance efforts and costs.
2010
2012
2013
2014
Zee demonstrate, they are usually associated with increased
pancies between wind farms result from sometimes seriously
Figure 75: Specific investment costs for different farms by country
different framework conditions. First there are country-specific
with a minimum nominal capacity of 45 MW,
differences such as the bearing of grid connection costs by grid
data sources: varied public communication from operators and in-
operators in Germany, and second, wind farms differ in terms
vestors, summarized by Fraunhofer IWES
of various location-dependent parameters such as distances

from coast, water depths, foundations structures and farm
sizes.
65
In addition to Figure 75, Figure 76 shows the findings from
Specific investment costs [/kW]
1,600
expert interviews. In Europe, 3,940 /kW to 5,360 /kW are

invested for offshore WTs. The bandwidth can be attributed
1,200
to the different sizes of WTs and the properties of wind farms.

The maximum cost figures come from wind farms with smaller
800
installations. The average investment costs for a 400MW wind

farm are 1,856 million. To simplify the comparison, grid
400
nc
en
In
su
ra
em
ag
an
example they are borne by the TSOs.
tm
ec
Pr
oj
in
tu
en
Ev
bl
er
w
ali
ty
n
at
Ca
rm
fo
ns
tra
t/
en
Po
pm
lo
De
ve
they are borne by the farm investors, whilst in Germany for
io
gy
no
ch
te
cu
oc
ed
ct
pe
ex
un
lo
ce
re
n
in
n
tio
nd
Fu
da
un
Fo
Tu
r
bi
ne
connection costs are not included because in some countries
Annual specific operating costs are 137/kW on average (see

Figure 77). Maintenance and servicing work for the turbines
Figure 76: Median and bandwidth of specific investment costs of Eu-
represents the highest part, 75/kW. For a 400MW farm, the
ropean offshore farms (grid connection costs not included),
costs therefore amount to around 55 million per year. The
data source: expert interviews
assumption of 3,800 full-load hours gives operating costs of

3.61ct/kWh.
unexpected occurance
spezific cost of operation [/kW]
Logistic
Operational management
80
Others
Insurance
120
Equipment periphery
Helth and safty,

protection of enviroment
Figure 78 shows a comparison of electricity generation costs

for offshore wind energy as determined in the cost studies
by Fraunhofer ISE (Institute for Solar Energy Systems) and the
Costs of operation
Leipzig Institute for Energy (IE Leipzig). The figures from Fraun-
Spare parts
hofer ISE are based upon the data of German projects with
installations in the 3to 5MW category, and investment costs
amounting to 3,400/kW to 4,500/kW. Electricity generating
40
costs of 11.4ct/kWh to 14ct/kWh were determined for very

Turbine
good farms with 4,000 full-load hours. For farms with lower
numbers of full-load hours, costs amount to 12.3 ct/kWh to
18.6ct/kWh[94]. The IE Leipzig study determined similar values

for German farms, albeit with a lower bandwidth. A survey in
Figure 77: Specific operating costs of European offshore farms per
spring 2013 on investment costs put a figure of 4,083/kW to
year (grid connection costs not included),
4,780/kW on this. This gives a figure for electricity generating
data source: expert interviews
costs in the 14ct/kWh to 15.9ct/kWh range [95].
66
Offshore
20
been regulating feed-in payments since April 2000. Since 2004,

the law has included special provisions for WTs at sea so that
profitable operation is also possible for offshore WTs. The EU
guideline for government environmental protection and energy
grants[99] stipulates tenders from 2017 for wind farms having
a capacity exceeding 6 MW or with six or more installations.
According to 2 Section 5REA, this means the financial funding
Electricity production costs [ct/kWh]
Feed-in payment for offshore wind power. The REA has

18
16
14
12
of offshore WTs in the future is to be regulated with tender

processes. In the transition period, operators of offshore WTs
10
who receive a grid connection commitment before January1,
2,800
3,200
3,600
4,000
Full load hours [h]
4,100
4,300
2017, and are operational before January1, 2021, can continue
Figure 78: Bandwidth of levelized cost of energy of German offshore
to claim REA payments. Stipulated in the REA amendment dated
wind farms at different full load hour assumptions,
August 1, 2014 is offshore expansion of 6500 MW by 2020,
data source: Fraunhofer ISE [94], Leipziger Institute fr Energie
and 15,000MW by 2030 (3REA). Installations further than
GmbH [95]
3miles from the coast apply as offshore WTs. Figure79 shows

current REA payment rates and degressions.
As an accompanying measure, the Reconstruction Credit
Institute (KfW) put into place in 2011 a special Offshore wind
energy program with a credit volume totaling 5bn at market
interest rates. Up to 10offshore wind farms can take advantage of this program[156]. Also, the KfW is planning to open
up the special offshore wind energy program to shipyard and
ship capacities, and to check into a separate credit program for
financing special ships and offshore structures[157].
In 2014, the European Court of Justice confirmed twice
that national funding of renewable energy is possible under
European law. On September 11, 2014 [100] and on July 1,
2014 [101], the European Court of Justice decreed that
funding systems for renewable energy providing funding only
for electricity generated inland do not necessarily infringe the
free movement of goods. If the court had decided otherwise,
the restriction of funding installations in the Federal region
laid down in 2 REA would have violated European law.
Then German grid operators and end consumers would also
have had to fund green electricity installations from other EU
member states [102].
67
20
Remuneration [ct/kWh]
16
12
Base and initial payments. The initial payment for offshore
Offshore
Initial remuneration
WTs is 15.4ct/kWh, and the base payment is 3.9ct/kWh. The
Base remuneration
Elevated initial remuneration
REA stipulates the initial payment for 12years after an offshore
Onshore
Initial remuneration
Base remuneration
Market premium
WT enters into service. Then the feed-in payment is reduced to

the base payment. Offshore turbines entering service before 2017
Non remote controlled

Remote controlled
are paid for 12years at a rate of 15.4ct/kWh, and thereafter

at 3.9 ct/kWh up to their 20th year of operation. The initial
payment is later reduced to 14.9ct/kWh (2018) or 14.4ct/kWh

(2020).
Increased initial payment. All offshore WTs entering into

20
20
18
20
20
20
16
14
12
20
10
20
08
20
20
20
06
04
operation by the end of 2020 can receive (as an alternative

to the regular initial payment on request) an increased initial
Figure 79: Feed-in payments for offshore electricity, data source: REA
payment of 19.4 ct/kWh (18.4 ct/kWh from 2018). In this

case, the guaranteed period for the initial payment reduces
to eight years. The intention with this compression model
is to reduce the financial risks for offshore investments and
17-18 years
BARD 1
Water depth [m]
40
Global Tech I
16-17 years
30
Alpha Ventus
15-16 years
Borkum 1
Meerwind
Sd / Ost
Nordsee Ost
DanTysk
14-15 years
Riffgat
Butendiek
Baltic 1
20
uncertainties for creditors - with revenues from investments

being able to flow back earlier. In the case of a potential time
period extension, WTs can receive over several years, after the
first eight years of increased initial payment, an extended initial
payment of 15.4ct/kWh, and thereafter the base payment of
3.9ct/kWh.
10
12-13 years
0
17
28
39
50
Time period extension. The time period for the initial
13-14 years
61
72
83
94
106
117
Shore distance [km]
payment is extended for offshore WTs erected at a distance of

at least 12miles (approx. 22.2km) or in a water depth of at
Figure 80: Time period of initial payment for offshore wind turbines
least 20m. For every full mile over the 12miles, the time period
in Germany, data source: REA
is extended by half a month, and for every additional full meter

of water depth, by 1.7months. Figure80 shows the graduation
of the time period for the initial payment as a function of the
distance to the coast and water depth, and the position of the
offshore wind farm realized in this grid.
68
Offshore
Direct marketing. For all new WTs, operators must sell the
offshore electricity directly. Since the end of 2012, direct selling
has been common practice for all offshore WTs installed in
Germany (see Figure73). The revenues of operator and direct
marketers are made up of the sales price attained and the
market premium together. The level of the market premium
is calculated monthly and retrospectively as the difference
between the value to be created (base/initial payment) and a
mean market value at the EEX exchange.
The REA reform in 2014 means base and initial payments for
new installations can no longer be augmented with additional
bonus payments (such as system services and management
bonuses). For existing installations from 2015, the management bonus is reduced to 0.4 ct/kWh for WTs with remote
management.
69
70
Special Report
CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS IN

WIND POWER EXPANSION
Dr. Peter Viebahn, Ole Soukup
Introduction
BMU 2012 - scenario 2011 A
The expansion of renewable energies is increasingly being
SRU 2011 - scenario 2.1.b
discussed in terms of resource consumption as well as in terms
SRU 2011 - scenario 2.1.a
of cost, security of supply, acceptance issues and effects on

in the discussion that overall resource utilization of an energy
BMWi 2010 - scenario I B
2050
land utilization and landscape appearance. It is beyond dispute
FVEE 2010 - 100%-RE

UBA 2010 - regions network
system is generally considerably lower the more it is based upon

This does not necessarily mean however that renewable energy
can be seen as unproblematic with regards to deployment of
resources. In particular, little investigation has been conducted
Greenpeace 2009 - Plan B

WWF 2009 - innovation with CCS
hydropower
wind onshore
wind offshore
biomass
photovoltaic
geothermal energy
imports
WWF 2009 - innovation without CCS
2012
renewable energy (and not aligned primarily towards biomass).
statistic (preliminary)
into the consumption and long-term availability of mineral raw
TWh/a 0
200
400
600
800
materials generally required to manufacture energy converters
Figure 1: Power generation from renewable energies in Germany in
and infrastructure. A current study (Wuppertal Institute 2014)
2050 according to various scenarios
contributes towards closing this analysis gap, providing infor-
resource efficiently.
Analytical approach
Investigated as part of the study was which critical mineral
raw materials will be relevant before 2050 in Germany for the
manufacturing of technologies which generate power, heat
30
generating capacity onshore [GW]
level of renewable energy expansion can be structured more
low capacity
medium capacity
high capacity
total power low

total power medium
total power high
60
20
40
10
20
total power onshore [GW]
mation on whether and how energy transition with a high
and fuel from renewable energy. Long-term availability of

and environmental conditions of transportation are taken into
the analysis were all technologies which could be deployed in
Germany over coming decades, supplemented by infrastructure
installations such as energy stores and power networks. Secondary applications such as batteries in electric vehicles which do
not use renewable energy directly are not included.
40
generating capacity offshore [GW]
account in the categorization of critical. Initially included in
low capacity
medium capacity
high capacity
total power low

total power medium
total power high
80
30
60
20
40
10
20
total power offshore [GW]
raw materials identified, supply situation, recycling capability
The analysis was conducted in due consideration of different

long-term energy scenarios created for the German energy
system. They describe different paths of renewable energy
1991-2000 2001-2010
2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040 2041-2050
expansion to 2050, shown in Figure 1 for the electricity sector.
Figure 2: Overall capacity at the end of a decade and capacity ex-
The long-term expansion requirement was identified for
pansion per decade for the different expansion paths
relevant technologies based upon these scenarios. For this, four

possible expansion paths low, medium, high and very
Christoph Froning / pixelio.de
71
high were derived for the period up to 2050, and the expan-
100
sion required (including replacement infrastructure) between

2011 and 2050 was calculated for every path. This expansion is
market share onshore [%]
80
shown in Figure 2 for onshore and offshore wind power.

60
Furthermore, roadmaps including estimations of future market

shares and potential technical development of different install-
40
ation types were developed for the relevant technologies.

Associating the expansion requirement with specific material
SG-PM-DD
SG-PM-MS
SG-PM-HS
SG-E-DD
AG
20
consumptions over time enabled the cumulated quantities of

mineral raw materials required to generate the required capacities
0
100
until 2050 to be ascertained and assessed.
Analysis of wind power
market share offshore [%]
80
Expansion path. Identified as potentially critical technologies

60
with regards to the supply of mineral raw materials were

individual components and sub-technologies of wind power.
Neodymium (Nd) and dysprosium (Dy), being used more and
40
more in generators with permanent magnets (PM), are critical
SG-PM-DD
SG-PM-MS
SG-PM-HS
SG-E-DD
AG
20
2009
2010
minerals here. They make it possible to deploy more powerful

and lightweight wind turbines. Cumulated expansion require2011
2012
2020
2030
2040
2050
ments for the low, medium, high and very high paths of 59, 79,
106 and 282 GW respectively (onshore), and 37, 62, 113 and
Figure 3: Technology market shares in Continuity scenario
123 GW respectively (offshore) were derived for wind power for
(onshore top, offshore bottom)
period 2011 to 2050.

Market development. Three roadmaps were developed for
expansion across Germany to 2050 to estimate future technologies and their market shares. For the onshore wind market,
they are based upon market development from 2009 to 2012.
To determine this information, data from Fraunhofer IWES
(Institute for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology) was
analyzed by manufacturer and installation type, and categorized by wind turbine class (see Table 1). Offshore market shares
were determined on the basis of all known offshore projects
in the German North and Baltic Seas for which a construction
permit has been issued as a minimum, or which are already
in the planning or construction phase. The roadmaps are built
72
Special Report - Critical raw materials in wind power expansion
upon three scenarios to include potential bandwidths from the
100
development of technical and economic framework conditions

for wind power.
with increasingly higher nominal capacities is slowing, attributable perhaps to legally binding height restrictions. Following on
from this is broad retention of the decentralized structure of
market share onshore [%]
In the Continuity scenario, the trend towards installations
80
onshore wind power usage. Given that the technical require-
60
40
20
SG-PM-DD
SG-PM-MS
SG-PM-HS
SG-E-DD
AG
ments of a wind turbine do not change to any great extent,

manufacturers are subjected to comparably lower pressure to
innovate, meaning low dynamics in any changing of market
100
shares are assumed (Figure 3). Low pressure to innovate and

80
assumed for the offshore sector. Also potentially contributing

towards this development is that the goal stated, of more
powerful and lightweight installations, cannot yet be met from
a technical standpoint.
In the Upscaling scenario, the trend is intensifying towards
market share offshore [%]
a low level of dynamics in continued development are also
60
40
SG-PM-DD
SG-PM-MS
SG-PM-HS
SG-E-DD
AG
20
large-scale, 10 MW class installations. This is because larger hub

heights and rotor diameters mean specific material requirements
2009
2010
2011
2012
2020
2030
2040
2050
and costs can be reduced significantly. The problem of high

tower top weights is resulting in a change of technology direc-
Figure 4: Technology market shares in Upscaling scenario (onshore
tion - towards PM generators (Figure 4). Onshore will therefore
top, offshore bottom)
continue on the trend observed since 2010. This change will be

more intense for offshore, meaning asynchronous machines will
have been broadly replaced by PM-based generators by 2050.
In the HTS scenario, significant usage of high-temperature
superconductors (HTS) is assumed in addition (no figure). In
terms of maturity for production and entry onto the market,
HTS generators would be direct competitors to driveless SG-PM
generators. Manufacturer market shares are therefore identical
to those in the Upscaling scenario. Market shares of SG-PMDD generators are reduced in the roadmap to make way for HTS
generators with direct drive (HTS-DD) - to reach 12% and 17%
market share for onshore and offshore respectively by 2050.
73
Excitation
Generator type
Permanently
excited (PM)
Synchronous (SG)
Drive
Short-form
Resors
2014
2025
2050
Direct drive
SG-PM-DD
Nd
201.5
162.5
130.0
Dy
15.0
11.7
11.7
Nd
49.6
40.0
32.0
Dy
3.7
2.9
2.9
Nd
24.8
20.0
16.0
Dy
1.8
1.4
1.7
2.3
2.3
Medium speed drive
SG-PM-MS
High speed drive
Elektrically
excited (E)
Asynchronous (AG)
Synchronous (SG)
SG-PM-HS
High speed drive
AG
Direct drive
SG-E-DD
High temperature superconductor (HTS) with

direct drive
HTS-DD
Yttrium
8,000
4,000
low
medium high
Onshore
very high
low
medium
high
Roadmap "continuity"
Roadmap "upscaling"
800
400
low
medium high
Onshore
very high
low
medium high
Offshore
400
200
Roadmap "HTS"
very high
Offshore
1,200
600
very high
1,200
0
low
medium
high
very high
spec. neodymium requirement
30
800
20
400
10
1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030 2031-2040 2041-2050
specic neodymium requirement [kg/MW]
dysprosium requirement [t]accumulated, 2011-2050
Roadmap "HTS"
low
medium
high
very high
spec. neodymium requirement
specic neodymium requirement [kg/MW]
Roadmap "upscaling"
12,000
absolute neodymium requirement [tper decade]
Roadmap "continuity"
800
16,000
absolute neodymium requirement [tper decade]
neodymium requirement [t]accumulated, 2011-2050
Table 1: Overview of generator types in the German installation mix
Figure 5: Cumulated neodymium (top) and dysprosium (bottom)
Figure 6: Neodymium requirement for new onshore (top) and off-
requirement for new wind turbines installed in Germany between
shore (bottom) wind turbines installed in Germany in the Continui-
2011 and 2050
ty roadmap (specific and absolute, for each decade in each case)
74
Development of specific consumption of rare earths.
Figure 6 clearly illustrates that the average specific Nd require-
Lanthanide series such as neodymium (Nd), dysprosium (Dy) and
ment for onshore wind turbines in the Continuity roadmap
yttrium (Y) are amongst the group of rare earths. Rare earths
will initially rise from 5 to 7 kg/MW between 2001 and 2040.
are not rare (as their name would suggest) but do not, or only
It sinks again slightly to 6.4 kg/MW in the last decade. Whilst
to a minimal extent, form deposits. Accordingly, they usually
over the entire period in question efficiency improvements and
only occur in low concentrations and are primarily acquired as
substitution efforts mean average specific consumption values
by-products. Nd and Dy are used in neodymium-iron-boron
of all individual generator types (Table 1) fall, the assumed
permanent magnets for synchronous generators in wind tur-
continued increase of the market share for generators with PM
bines. These rare earth magnets have the benefit of high ma-
magnets, primarily high speed, but also medium speed,
gnetic energy density, meaning lower generator weights can be
means the specific requirement of newly built wind turbines
attained. Quantitatively, neodymium and praseodymium, which
rises in all but the last decade. In the first offshore installations
are very similar chemically and physically, dominate. Additives
in Germany which came online in 2010, only asynchronous
of dysprosium and terbium are also used in low quantities to
generators were fitted, meaning no Nd entered the balance for
raise the Curie temperature of these magnets. To determine the
the first decade. Afterwards, the average specific requirement of
Nd/Dy requirement for PM magnets, their weights and specific
installations newly-built every decade rises to just under 30 kg/
requirements in todays wind turbines were estimated on the
MW, caused by the share of installations with PM magnets,
basis of literature analyses (Table 1). Values for years 2025 and
mainly medium speed and direct drive, increasing over
2050 were assumed on the basis of literature specifications and
time. In the Upscaling roadmap (not shown), the requirement
discussions with experts, whilst the field strength and density
due to considerable expansion of these installations taking place
of a magnet, and so the specific magnet weight, were assumed
rises for onshore and offshore to just shy of 70 kg/MW.
as unchanged.
Cumulated consumption of neodymium and dysprosium. Figure 5 shows the cumulated requirement of Nd
and Dy over the entire period in question. It can be seen clearly
that the requirement for critical raw materials depends not
only on the level of wind power expansion in the future, it also
depends to an even greater extent in part on the technology
mix to establish itself. This can be seen in particular for the
requirement of Nd and Dy for onshore wind turbines. In the
Continuity roadmap, there is only 12% to 13% of the Nd
and Dy requirement needed over the entire observation period
as compared to the Upscaling roadmap. For offshore wind
power, the differences between the various roadmaps are not
as great because in the Continuity roadmap the assumption
is that medium speed and direct drive generator types
having a particularly high requirement of critical raw materials
will gain significant market share for new installations.
75
Assessment of resources
other countries
Greenland
ex-Soviet Union
India
China
USA
If geological availability was taken on its own, all scenarios and

expansion paths looked at for wind power usage in Germany
can be implemented, even if similar expansion of wind power
is assumed for all other countries. Used here was a budget
approach from climate policy, in which global reserves and
resources are weighted using the percentaged population of
Germany, and reduced by consumptions from other sectors.
On the other hand, adequate supply of the quantities required
by Germany cannot necessarily be guaranteed. Firstly, excavation levels from mines are as low as 10% in part. Minerals theo-
Figure 7: Distribution of reserves of neodymium (including praseody-
retically available in sufficient quantities are therefore remaining
mium) and dysprosium (including terbium)
unused or partly unused. Also, very different environmental

performances must be factored into the extraction process.
Mining Nd and Dy brings with it considerable environmental
impact, depending on the minerals mined, the processing
technologies and the addition of other materials to the minerals
extracted. On the other hand, there is a high level of dependency on a few supplier nations, entailing a corresponding bearing
on security of supply (see Figure 7). China is currently the only
extraction nation of relevance, especially for Dy. At the moment
it is unclear as to whether other supplier countries can establish
themselves in the long term, and under what conditions extraction
would take place (including transportation costs, quality of
deposits and environmental legislation).
Alternatives. Despite the benefits of rare earth magnets, the
risks associated with this dependency mean established and
new technologies not using rare earths should continue to be
developed and enhanced.

For onshore installations, the use of Nd and Dy is not an absolute necessity because problems such as high tower top
weight and cost-intensive maintenance work for turbines
pertain mainly to offshore installations. At least the recent
rapidly rising trend of also using onshore installations with
PM magnets cannot be justified using the same requirements as for offshore installations. Non-critical, electrically
excited generators could continue to be used for onshore,
especially in the 1 to 3 MW class.
76
Potentially usable for offshore installations in the long term
Acknowledgement
are electrically excited synchronous generators in which
The authors would like to thank those working on research
HTS replaces in part the copper in the rotor coils, and so
project KRESSE Kritische mineralische Ressourcen und
feature much lower generator weights and volumes than
Stoffstrme bei der Transformation des deutschen Energiever-
conventional direct driven synchronous generators.
sorgungssystems (Critical mineral resources and mass flows in

the transformation of the German energy supply system) for
If installations with PM magnets continue to be used however
their contributions towards compiling the findings presented
(in the offshore sector in particular), they should at least be
here, as well as the BMU (federal environment ministry) and
designed so as to be recyclable. In terms of perspective, the
BMWi (federal ministry for economic affairs and energy) for
development of a recycling system must be evaluated to get
promoting the project.
access to recycled Nd and Dy for the replacement requirement

in 20 to 30 years. Still, there are engineering challenges in
Literature
process technology for high-quality recycling that are yet to be
Wuppertal Institute (2014): KRESSE Kritische mineralische
addressed.
Ressourcen und Stoffstrme bei der Transformation des deutschen

Energieversorgungssystems (Critical mineral resources and
Conclusions
mass flows in the transformation of the German energy supply
Overall the study makes clear that the geological availability of
system). Final report to the federal ministry for economic affairs
mineral raw materials essentially does not represent a restric-
and energy (BMWi), with cooperation from Karin Arnold, Jonas
ting factor for the planned expansion of renewable energies
Friege, Christine Krger, Arjuna Nebel, Michael Ritthoff, Sascha
in Germany. However, potential shortfalls in supply may mean
Samadi, Ole Soukup, Jens Teubler, Peter Viebahn and Klaus
that not every technology variant can be deployed without
Wiesen.
restriction. In addition to wind power, individual technologies
http://wupperinst.org/de/projekte/details/wi/p/s/pd/38/.
of photovoltaics (thin film) and battery storage (Redox flow
Wuppertal
batteries based on vanadium) were identified as critical. However, for these technologies there are non-critical alternatives
which could be used increasingly in the future or which are
already dominant in the market. Geothermal energy could not
be assessed due to a lack of data. All other technologies from
the power, heat and transport sectors can most probably be
regarded as non-critical for direct deployment of renewable
energy. The general suggestion nevertheless in safeguarding
the supply of raw materials for Germany is to place the mediumterm focus on efficiency and recycling strategies. This way the
increase in resource efficiency and recycling capability can take
center stage in technology development. Existing recycling
potential should also be leveraged. However, every recycling
method is associated in part with considerable material losses
and high energy usage. So in addition to recycling strategies,
it is strategies for prolonging service lives in particular which
should be developed in close collaboration with the industry.
77
78
Special Report
Balancing Power
FROM WIND TURBINES
Malte Jansen, Dominik Jost
Introduction
An equitable balancing power provision with all types of
During the course of the energy transition in Germany, more
balancing services with fluctuating feed-in of renewable energy
than 25% of electricity consumed is now provided from
would be unparalleled in Europe. Thus far there have been few
renew-able energies. This energy comes primarily from wind
regulations in Europe which open up access to individual system
turbine and photovoltaic installations. It is therefore becoming
service markets for fluctuating feed-in of renewable energies. In
increasingly necessary that renewable energies are also invol-
Denmark, wind turbines are already providing balancing energy,
ved in the provision of system services. The reform of the REA
but access to the reserve power market remains protected. In
(Renewable Energy Act) has meant since the start of 2012 that
Ireland, wind turbines provide primary spinning reserve by
renewables are able to participate in the market. This explicitly
accepting energy losses. Changing market conditions to benefit
includes participation in the markets for the provision of system
fairer competitive conditions for all players represents a new
services. Within this context, balancing power is already being
challenge for operators, wind turbine and virtual power plant
provided successfully by biogas and hydroelectric power plants
manufacturers, and direct sellers. Many technical innovations
(exceeding 1 GW in total). Wind turbines have yet to contri-
have already resulted from this situation and are still being antici-
bute any balancing power however. This is mainly because the
pated. Such an integration of renewables not only does justice to
formalities for the balancing service market are not rendering
the pioneering role of Germany, it also substantially strengthens
participation possible.
the competitiveness of companies in the international context.
Since 2014, all renewables together provide more energy
This issue after all is about continuing the energy transition in its
than any other power generation technology [1]. Renewables
very nature. Part of this is the gradual flexibilisation of installa-
therefore represent the greatest pillar of German energy supply.
tions and the reduction of must-run power plants. Must-run
The resultant responsibility for reliable operation of the energy
generation, only on the grid to render system services, can be
supply system can only be perceived up to a point given the
reduced significantly with the greatest possible provision of ba-
exclusion of fluctuating renewable energy. Despite these circum-
lancing power from renewable energy. The analyses in [2] arrive
stances, the industry is aware of the problem and is proactively
at the conclusion that the must-run generation of thermic power
seeking solutions. For example, European energy supply com-
plants is up to 13.5 GW for the provision of balancing services.
pany Trianel announced in 2014 it would be addressing this
According to another experts report [3], this must-run genera-
issue in 2015. The findings from the research project headed
tion is between 8 and 25 GW. A capacity in the energy system
by Fraunhofer IWES are finally being implemented in practice.
which cannot be addressed constantly with renewable energy

is therefore a reason to regulate renewable energy installations
Challenge of the electricity market design
(especially for high feed-in levels from the fluctuating feed-in of
Minor adaptations to currently applicable market conditions
renewables). Paramount in the provision of balancing services
are being discussed to facilitate participation of fluctuating
from renewables is the fact that there is a high requirement for
feed-in of renewable energy. This is attributable not least to the
balancing energy when feed-in levels are high, something which
Green Paper / White Paper process of the federal ministry for
in addition could increase must-run load.
economic affairs and Energy (BMWi). In the adaptation of market

regulations, the needs of volatile generators must be addressed
adequately without at the same time restricting the opportunities
of existing market players.
Uwe Schlick / pixelio.de
79
Balancing energy from wind turbines R&D project
The purpose of calculating a reliability figure is to facilitate
In order to enable the integration of fluctuating renewables
quantification of uncertainty in a bid, and thereby to guarantee
into the energy supply system, the Fraunhofer Institute for
that the spinning reserve actually held in reserve is below the
Wind Energy and Energy System Technology IWES carried out
quantity offered in only 0.01% of cases. Probabilistic forecasts
the Balancing power from wind turbines project. The project
are a potential tool for determining the reliability of bids from
was run in collaboration with wind turbine manufacturer Ener-
wind farms and manageable installations. These forecasts
con, wind farm operator Energiequelle and transmission system
return a wind farm or wind farm pool capacity which is attained
operators (TSOs) Amprion und TenneT. The goal of the project
or exceeded with a specific probability.
was to develop and test a concept with which wind turbines

can provide balancing power cost-effectively. The project was
Shown in figure 1 are the results of a probabilistic forecast for
completed in 2014 [4].
different scenarios. The reliability figure is 99.994% for the

entire German wind farm pool. The nominal capacity is normal-
The process developed in this project shows the degrees of
ized to 1. The orange line shows the result of the probabilistic
freedom and restrictions with which wind turbines can parti-
day-ahead forecast - as balancing power which can be offered.
cipate in the balancing power market. The focus is placed on
The blue line is for the 1-hour intraday forecast. The red line
bid preparation and trialing of a new verification method for
is the actual feed-in level. Infringements of balancing power
rendering balancing power. At the end, the technical feasibility
bids by the day-ahead forecast would always be detected by an
of the newly developed verification method was demonstrated
intraday forecast. This increases forecast reliability even further.
in a field test.
The use of probabilistic forecasts opens up new areas of busiThe findings show that it is possible to offer day-ahead spinning
ness for direct sellers and forecast providers. The provision of
reserve reliably with wind turbines. The technical realization of
balancing services is just one aspect. The expectation is that
the verification method requires further research. The field test
information gained can also be used for issues of portfolio
as part of the Spinning reserve from wind turbines project
assessment, meaning the advancement of renewable energy
showed that both ICT environments and installations themselves
system integration.
are essentially capable of meeting the requirements. The obstacles pertaining to installation connectivity and activation could
Verification method
be overcome in the project. This process is likely to be structured
A key issue in the provision of balancing power is the mechanism
more efficiently with commercialization.
to verify the feed-in of balancing power when it is required. The

current method, used by biogas installations and other spinning
Probabilistic forecasts create reliability
reserve providers, can only be deployed with restrictions for
The participation of wind power in the balancing services mar-
wind turbines. The call-off of negative tertiary control power is
ket requires that wind turbines offer spinning reserve with the
used below to explain the problem.
same reliability as existing suppliers. In Germany, a reliability

of 100% is required from participants in this spinning reserve
For manageable installations, the schedule registration is used
market. This stipulation cannot be met by any technical system
for verification of spinning reserve rendering. The assumption
however. A reliability figure of at least 99.99% for rendering
is that the schedule is attained reliably. The call-off of spinning
spinning reserve can be derived from empirical values available
reserve is verified by comparing the actual feed-in with the
from the TSOs.
planned feed-in from the schedule. Verification is achieved if

the difference corresponds to the spinning reserve requested.
80
Special Report - Balancing power from wind turbines
Keeping to the schedule is a problem for wind turbines. Although
input
forecast Day-Ahead
forecast Intraday
offer Day-Ahead
offer Intraday
wind turbines have systematically reduced their balance compower (normalized)
pensation errors since the introduction of direct selling, it cannot

be assumed that individual wind farms keep a constant value
over 15 minutes. This is regarded as problematic, especially at
times of strong wind gradients.
For a wind turbine to reliably keep to a schedule, it must be
curtailed. The degree of curtailment determines the reliability
of the schedule value. The principle of verification with the schedule is shown in Figure 2. The forecast normally used for direct
marketing is shown in dark green. However, a wind farm keeps
Figure 1: Probabilistic 1-hour forecast the 30 GW wind farm pool in
balancing energy in reserve in the first quarter of an hour, and
2012.
so is regulated to the reliable schedule value of the probabilistic

forecast (in blue). The energy shortage quantities are factored
possible input
forecast
prob. forcast @ x%
input
into the bids for the spinning reserve market as opportunity

uneconomical. Furthermore, the regulated energy must be
replaced by fossil fuel plants. When a curtailment is carried
out, the turbine power is reduced by an amount equaling the
power [MW]
costs. This can quickly make the provision of spinning reserve
regulating power call
balancing power bid to a value below the schedule which is

already curtailed. The level of the curtailed energy in provision
is strongly dependent on the forecast quality.
15
time [min]
30
There is an alternative method for verification of balancing
Figure 2: Verification of rendering negative tertiary control capacity
power without the need for curtailment. During provision, the
using the Schedule verification method
wind farm is operated as in normal direct selling. During the

call-off, the wind farm is operated with differential capacity up
possible input
forecast
prob. forcast @ x%
input
to the maximum possible feed-in level. The maximum possible

feed-in level is the power which would have been fed in if the
ations would only regulate energy in the event of a call-off.
The determination of possible feed-in level currently represents
regulating power call
power [MW]
wind farm was not regulated. With this verification, the install-
a technical challenge however, and it is being addressed by

researchers and turbine manufacturers. Shown in the same
way in Figure 3 is the verification mechanism using the possible
feed-in level.
15
time [min]
30
Figure 3: Verification of rendering negative tertiary control capacity

using the Possible feed-in level verification method
81
Windenergie
WINDReport
ENERGY
Deutschland
REPORT 2012
GERMANY 2014
Business case for balancing service provision

cost savings []
Prices on the balancing power market could change if the

framework conditions for participation of wind turbines are adopted such that a business model for wind turbines results. This
means balancing power costs in the system fall without reliability
being impacted. The reduction of costs for provision and calloff of balancing power arise through the participation of wind
farms on the balancing services market. Expensive suppliers are
ousted from the merit order list.
Figure 4: Savings effects and potential additional revenues for wind
The economic effects of participation were addressed in the
farm operators through participation by German wind farm pool
Spinning reserve from wind turbines project using simulations
in negative tertiary control market in line with Potential feed-in
for a 30 GW wind farm pool [4]. The levels of wind farm bids
level method for different product lengths and reliabilities of bid
are determined in each case using probabilistic forecasts. The
for 2010
level of savings for the system and potential additional revenues

for suppliers depend on the framework conditions in question
particularly on the issue of the verification mechanism.
Figure 4 shows the savings effects for participation of the German wind farm pool on the market for negative tertiary control
in line with the Potential feed-in level method for 2012.
Savings effects anticipated are shown as continuous lines.
Potential additional revenues for the wind farm operators from
the anticipated profits due to participation of wind turbines in
the balancing power market are shown as dashed lines. In a
comparison, the Potential feed-in level method is proven to
be economically superior.
A savings potential of 13 million would have resulted for
2012 given a reliability figure of 99.994% and product length
of 1hour. Savings would be 12 million and 7 million for a
product length of 4 hours and 24 hours respectively. The
potential additional revenues in 2012 are 22 million (1 hour),
19 million (4 hours) and 9 million (24 hours). This means the
benefits determined for 2012 as the total savings and potential
addition revenues was 31 million, given a realistic assumption
of a balancing power block with a length of 4 hours.
82
Special Special
ReportReport
- Balancing
Direktvermarktung
power from wind turbines
Summary
The growing share of fluctuating renewables within the energy
system is increasing pressure on decision-makers to transfer
more system responsibility to renewable energy. The remit first
of all is compensation of very short-term system imbalances.
Within this context, it has been possible for wind turbines to
prove their capability of performing in a system-supporting
manner. In order to ensure fluctuating renewables are also
capable operatively it is essential to set the course correctly. Not
least, the adaptation of market conditions by the Green Paper
process of the federal ministry for economic affairs and energy
is being addressed on a political level. The dynamics in technological innovations resulting from this change are directly linked
to Germanys pioneering role in energy system transformation.
Sources
[1] [1] AG Energiebilanzen (2014). Accessed on
20/01/2015 by: www.ag-energiebilan-zen.de/index.
php?article_id=29&fieName=20141216_brd_stromerzeugung1990-2014.pdf
[2] [2] Grnwald, R.; Ragwitz, M.; Sensfu, F.; Winkler, J.
(2012). Regenerative Energietrger zur Sicherung der
Grundlast in der Stromversorgung Endbericht zum
Monitoring. Office for technology impact assessment at
the German Bundestag. Berlin
[3] [3] Forschungsgemeinschaft fr Elektrische Anlagen und
Stromwirtschaft (FGH) e. V.; CONSENTEC; Institute for
Electrical Installations and Electricity Industry (IAEW) at
RWTH Aachen (2012): Study to determine the technical
minimum generation of conventional generation system
to guarantee system stability in German transmission
networks given high feed-in levels from renewables.
Mannheim/Aachen
[4] [4] Brauns, S.; Jansen, M.; Jost, D.; Siefert, M.; Speckmann, M.; Widdel , M. (2014). Balancing energy from
wind turbines - final report. Kassel, http://www.energiesystemtechnik.iwes.fraunhofer.de/de/presse-infothek/
publikationen/uebersicht/2014/abschlussberichtregelenergie-durch-windkraftanlagen.html
83
84
Special Report
REGIONAL MARKET VALUE

FACTORS FOR WIND POWER
Ann-Katrin Gerlach, Carsten Pape, Peter Stratmann
The share of fluctuating renewables as a percentage of total

power generation means a greater call for better market in-
Definition of market value factor
tegration of renewable produced electricity. Within this context,

the question arises as to the value of the electricity generated
The market value factor specifies how the value of
from renewables dependent on supply. One possible parameter
electrical energy provided differs from the average
is represented by market value factors - providing information
spot market price. It corresponds to the ratio of actual
on the value level of the electricity generated as compared to
sales revenue which the installation attains over the
the average exchange electricity price. Different time-related
year, and the sales revenue which would be achieved
generation characteristics mean this value can vary from region to
with feed-in at the average spot market price.
region. Given the mandatory direct selling of electricity generated

by wind turbines, introduced in the 2014 Renewable Energy Act
(stdl. Strompreis stdl. Einspeisung des Energietrgers)
of special interest. Also, the level of financial funding for electricity
MWF =
from renewables is to be determined by means of a tender system
Accordingly, a market value factor of less than 1
no later than 2017 [EEG 2014]. The analysis of regional market
means on average that below average revenues are
value factors for wind energy is the subject of a study carried out
achieved in selling the electricity. From 2012 to 2014,
by Fraunhofer IWES on behalf of BNetzA (the Federal Network
the market value factors for electricity generation
[REA 2014], the regional market value factors for wind energy are
Agency) [Gerlach and Pape 2015].
durchschnittlicher Strompreis stdl. Einspeisung
from wind power on land were between 0.80 and

0.88 [Fernahl et al. 2014].
With a yield of about 50 TWh, wind energy was the dominant

renewable energy generation technology in Germany in 2014
[AGEB 2014]. The low-cost wind resource and greater areas of
may be necessary to raise the attractiveness of such regions
suitable land have meant initially that the north of Germany
and to compensate potentially higher investment costs.
has seen major expansion of wind energy. Resulting from

this is a concentration of wind turbines in the north Germany
Analysis methodology
region which frequently feed into the grid at high capacity at
To determine the market value factors of wind energy in a future
the same time. The merit order effect means this high level of
scenario, the capacity time series of wind power generation and
simultaneous feed-in of wind power often has a considerable
the corresponding time series of the spot market prices are
price-lowering effect on the exchange electricity price.
required. The latter were generated on the basis of the 2013

Grid Development Plan [NEP 2013] for scenario B 2023 using a
The technical enhancement of wind turbines has enabled the
European market simulation, and made available by the Federal
development of wind farms in inland regions with weaker
Network Agency. Assumptions on renewable energy expansion,
winds. These turbines may feed into the network at different
the growth in the number of power plants and the exchange
times compared to installations in northern Germany [Pape et
capacities between market regions comply with the scenario
al. 2013]. The question therefore arises as to whether wind
framework in the GDP. The historic weather year 2007 was used
turbines which attain lower yields in areas of weaker winds in
for the market simulations and for generating the capacity time
the south, but which feed into the network at atypical times
series for wind energy. The simulation of wind power feed-in is
(due to their different feed-in characteristics) are able to benefit
based upon the COSMO-DE model from the German Weather
from this effect and attain above average revenues in the direct
Service, covering Germany with about 46,000 weather model
marketing of wind power generated. If not, regional grants
areas having a grid width of 2.8 km.
www.siemens.com / presse
85
strong wind strong wind

2013
2023
rated power [MW]
weak wind
(moderate)
2023
weak wind
(distinct)
2023
2.3
2.5
rotor diameter [m]
85
100
115
120
hub hight [m]

spec. rated power [W/m]
spec. investment
(incl. add. costs) [/kW]
90
441
110
382
140
289
145
203
1,275
1,400
1,600
1,930
To eliminate the effect of different yields on the regional market

value factors, capacity time series with identical specific yields
(here 2,500 full-load hours (FLH)) are generated for all model
areas. This occurs with variation in hub height and rotor to
generator ratio, provided this level of utilization is achievable
with realistic installation parameters. Four wind turbine types
Table 1: Configurations and specific investments for the four reference
with different rotor to generator ratios formed the basis for the
installations.
variation of installation parameters. Three of the installation

models are from the study Renewable Energy Expansion in
Germany at Optimum Cost [Frstenwerth et al. 2013]. An
rotor diameter
85 m
100 m
115 m
120 m
installation with about 203 W/m (Table 1) was selected as

another reference installation with a very customized layout for
weak wind locations. By interpolating between parameters hub
3 MW
2.3 MW
3 MW
for wind energy with the number of full-load hours specified,
2.5 MW
with simultaneous formation of generation characteristics over

110 m
140 m
145 m
time, were generated for every model area, taking these four
90 m
hub hight
height and rotor-generator ratio (Figure 1), capacity time series
strong wind
2013
strong wind
2023
weak wind
(moderate)
2023
weak wind
(distinct)
2023
Figure 1: Interpolation between wind turbines.
wind turbine types as the starting point.

Sales revenues are determined by multiplying the hourly wind
power generation (of every model area) by the spot market
prices for the respective hour for the year. The market value
factors for every model area are determined from the ratio of
average sales revenues to average exchange electricity price.
Also, an estimation is carried out in which specific investment
costs would be required on every model area to attain the 2,500
FLHs specified (in weather year 2007). These figures depend on
the wind potential at the location, and so the required design
of installations. The investments required are contrasted against
the sales revenues determined for scenario year 2023 to gain
an indication of the cost-effectiveness of a location in due
consideration of regional market value factors.
86
Special Report - Regional market value factors for wind power
Market value factors determined

A utilization of 2,500 FLHs was possible on 93% of the model
1.00
areas across Germany by varying the installation configuration. This

number of full-load hours was not achieved on the remaining 7%
because the level of wind was too low or too high.
Figure 2 shows the spread of market value factors determined for
Germany. The hypothetical average sales revenues of wind power
0.95
fair market value
generated by wind turbines with 2,500 FLHs are between 85% and
101% of the average exchange electricity price (taking into account
the price time series provided). Similarly, the market value factors
range from 0.85 to 1.01. As assumed at the beginning, the south
sees higher market value factors than in the north. This is attributable mainly to the feed-in of wind turbines in northern Germany
0.90
which drive the electricity price down.. Wind turbines in the south
frequently feed into the grid at times different to installations in the
north, and thus attain higher average sales revenues.
The frequency distribution for the market value factors in question
0.85
can be seen in the histogram in Figure 3. The maximum market

value factors (greater than 1) can be seen primarily in Baden-
Figure 2: Market value factors of wind turbines in 2023 for 2,500
Wrttemberg, whilst on the North German Plain, mainly lower
FLHs and wind conditions of 2007 (in grey areas, it was not possible
market value factors with values between 0.85 and 0.90 are
to attain the FLHs required with the installation configurations given).
determined. At a maximum of 16 percentage points, the spread

of market value factors determined this way is relatively low overall.
Capacity-specific revenues for the weather year analyzed are

derived from the market value factors depicted. They are
between 113,000 and 130,000 / MW, and so differ by a
maximum of 17,000 / MW (Figure 4). Because in this analysis
all installations generate the same amount of energy in terms
of installed capacity, capacity-specific revenues of installations
in the south are higher (in line with the market value factors).
percentage of area in Germany [%]
Capacity-specific revenues
The linear relationship means the distribution across Germany

corresponds to that of the market value factors.
The methodology adapted here permits a comparison of market
0.86
0.88
0.90
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
1.00
fair market value
Figure 3: Distribution of market value factors over the area of Germany

in 2023 for 2,500 FLHs and wind conditions of 2007.
87
values across Germany. It is clear here that installations in the
130
south feed into the network at higher average prices, and so

can attain higher sales revenues than installations in the north
128
for the same energy yield. What continues to be disregarded

however is the fact that higher sales revenues are contrasted
126
122
120
118
power-related revenue [1,000 /MW]
against higher investment costs - because a weak wind install124
ation attaining 2,500 FLHs in the south is usually associated

with higher investment costs than a strong wind installation in
the north having the same FLH rating.
Additional revenue vs. additional cost

Price estimations were made for individual installation types
to assess sales revenue in relation to investment costs. The
estimations for investment costs of wind turbines are based
116
on study Cost Situation for Wind Energy Onshore [Rehfeldt

et al. 2013]. This study investigates the cost structure of wind
114
energy in 2013. For the derivation of cost developments, the
112
trend towards complex structures e.g. with higher towers
Figure 4: Capacity-specific revenues of wind turbines in 2023 for
was included on the one hand, and moderate learning curves
2,500 FLHs and wind conditions of 2007
presumed on the other. The specific costs for the installation

types analyzed are numbered in Table 1 for 2023. The estima-
2.0
tion of such a cost development is always associated with a

high level of uncertainty. Despite the resolution of the weather
1.9
model which is already high, the wind potential within a model

area can be considerably different locally. In ridge locations for
1.7
1.6
1.5
specific investment costs [1,000,000 /MW]
1.8
1.4
example, much cheaper installations could attain 2,500 FLHs,

whilst valley locations would entail higher investment costs. The
findings generated this way, and shown below, therefore only
represent an approximation. But they do form an adequate basis
to estimate the significance of regional market value factors.
Figure 5 shows the specific investment costs of wind turbines
distributed across Germany in 2023 which would achieve
2,500 FLHs in weather year 2007. At locations with weaker
wind, investment costs rise considerably because more complex
1.3
turbines with higher hub heights and greater rotors in relation to

generator capacity would have to be installed. Specifically in are-
1.2
as where figure 4 promises higher revenues, investment costs are
Figure 5: Assumed specific investment costs for wind turbines with
up to 655,000 /MW higher than particularly windy locations.
2,500 FLHs in 2023 (weather year 2007)
Figure 6 illustrates that the higher sales revenues of wind tur-
88
Special Report - Regional market value factors for wind power
bines in the south are not high enough to compensate for the
12 %
addition costs of the installation types required. Sales revenues

for installations in the scenario for 2023 are between 5% and
11 %
ations in isolated regions of central Germany attain the highest
10 %
figures. In south Germany, there are even smaller areas in which

revenues are attained which cover in equal share investments
9%
in large regions of north Germany. However, revenues in most

parts of south and central Germany are not high enough to
8%
compensate for the addition costs of installations. This also

becomes apparent in the comparison of electricity generating
7%
costs of wind turbines in locations with weak and strong wind.

For 2013 for a 60% reference location, electricity generating
6%
procentage of marketing revenue of investment costs
10% of investment costs assumed (weather year 2007). Install-
costs were determined to be 43% higher than for a 100%

reference location (110.7 /MWh compared to 77.4 /MWh)
5%
[Rehfeldt et al. 2013, Table 8-3]. Given that market value factors for wind energy in Germany differ by a maximum of 16
4%
percentage points, these differences are not high enough to

compensate for higher electricity generating costs.
Figure 6: Sales revenues of wind turbines in 2023 as a percentage of

their investment costs for 2,500 FLHs and wind conditions of 2007
If the requirement to build installations at locations with weaker

wind conditions remains, to decentralize energy supply and to
reduce the grid expansion requirement for example, the need
Selbstvermarktung. Short study, Bonn.
for a regionally adopted funding scheme persists - even for a
[NEP 2013] 50Hertz, TenneT TSO, Amprion, TransnetBW: 2013
self-marketing model.
Electricity Network Development Plan.

[Pape et al. 2013] Pape C., Arbach S., Gerlach A.-K., Khn P.,
Sources
Pfaffel S., Frstenwerth D. (2013): Entwicklung der Windenergie
[AGEB 2014] Arbeitsgruppe Energiebilanzen e.V. (2014): Strom-
in Deutschland: A description of current and future trends and
erzeugung nach Energietrgern 1990-2014.
characteristics of feed-in by wind turbines. Agora Energiewende,
[REA 2014] Act on the expansion of renewable energies
Berlin.
(Renewable Energy Act REA 2014). Date of issue: 21/7/2014
[Rehfeldt et al. 2013] Rehfeldt K., Wallasch A.-K., Lers S. (2013):
[Fernahl et al. 2014] Fernahl A., Gtz Ph., Henkel J., Lenck T.
Kostensituation der Windenergie an Land in Deutschland, Varel.
(2014): Determination of market value for electricity generation

across Germany from regenerative power plants. Berlin.
[Frstenwerth et al. 2013] Frstenwerth D., Tersteegen B., Pape
C. (2013): Expansion of renewable energy in Germany at optimal
cost. Agora Energiewende, Berlin.
[Gerlach and Pape 2015] Gerlach A.-K., Pape C. (2015):
Abschtzung der konomischen Wirkung einer Verteilung
von Wind- und PV-Anlagen ber Deutschland im Rahmen der
89
90
Special Report
EFFECTS OF THE
Bidding PROCESS
Heinrich Degenhart
REA 2014 [1] contains for the first time the political agreement
Transfer from PV to wind energy?
to introduce generally by 2017 at the latest bidding processes
The bid process for wind turbines is being introduced on the
for the financial funding of electricity from renewable energy
basis of experience gained from bids for free-field PV installations
(2 Section 5 REA). To gain experience, the REA provides for
as part of the next REA amendment (anticipated in 2017).
pilot bids for ground mounted PV installations ( 55 REA). The
Experience with free-field PV bids can only be transferred up
associated power to issue statutory instruments contains a
to a point. The much longer planning and approval times,
number of specifications for this bid process ( 88 REA). Inclu-
and considerably higher specific planning and development
ded here is the requirement to retain the diversity of players
costs for onshore and offshore wind turbines, would result in
in electricity generation with renewable energy installations.
discrepancies in the process. Nevertheless, initial effects on the
During the course of the legislative procedure, different studies
future realization of wind turbines can already be discussed on
have been published which deal critically with the planned
the basis of this draft and under certain assumptions.
tender process. Accordingly, experience abroad with tender

systems is mixed. The positive effects expected with auctions
Planning and development effects
were rarely realized as implementation was difficult [2]. There
A tender process has considerable effects on the planning and
is also concern that all forms of tender process do not maintain
development durations for wind farms, and the costs incurred
the diversity of players and systematically disadvantage public
within this period. Figure 1 shows the realization perspectives
energy cooperatives and citizen participation in particular [3].
of wind farms in the various phases. Many project ideas are

submitted relatively quickly in the initiative phase. However, half
For the key points paper from the federal ministry for econo-
of the projects initiated remain in the securing, draft generation
mic affairs and energy for an auction design for free-field PV
and contract award phases, for which much higher planning
installations [4], 75 responding statements were sent in [5].
and development costs are incurred. In the initial phase early
The project developers involved in the process fundamentally
larger cost positions are related to land securing. A lot of
welcomed the bid process, but criticized the planned penalties
complex investigations must be conducted in the subsequent
and securities. Ultimately the legislators decided to test the
phases up to the issuing of the permit in line with the Federal
bid process in a form as simple as possible, broadly oriented
Emission Control Law. Wind. Nature conservation (wildlife and
towards REA tariffs. The enactment for free-field PV installati-
landscape protection), emissions (noise and shadow casting)
ons [6] non-exhaustively stipulates that:
and turbulence expertises must be sought for this purpose. An

environmental impact study is also required for large wind farms.
Onshore planning costs sum up to 95 /kW on average [8].
the bid value is the only award criterion
at least one lruling on the specification of or change
to a building plan (also) with the purpose of erecting
The planning and development process for wind turbines, which
a ground-mounted installation must be in place for sub
is already long, would be prolonged by months by the bidding
mission of a bid
process, and would add a risk dimension. It is inherent to an
securities must be deposited and graduated penalties
efficient bidding process that far more bids must be submitted
paid to ensure implementation
than can ultimately be realized. To date, 1 in 5 to 10 projects
no specific regulations for safeguarding the diversity of
has been implemented. If the assumption is that only one in 2
players (e.g. for public energy projects) are in place
to 3 bids in the bidding process wins, the chances of success

decrease by a factor of 2 to 3.
eno energy GmbH
91
Given that legislators are interested in a higher realization rate,

advertisement
earliest
latest
the bid time will likely have to be specified at the end of the
planning and development phase. The important approval
5 (10)
projects
2.5 (5)
projects
back-upphase
1.9 (3.8)
projects
phase of
disign
1.8 (3.6)
projects
phase of
order
1.3 (2.6)
projects
phase of
permission
1 project
phase of
execution,
construction
and operation
initiativephase
certificates must be in place, and the necessary permits be

imminent as a minimum, for a project to have any chance of
realization. To avoid penalties in the event of no realization, every
potential bidder must attach importance to only introducing
to the process projects which have excellent prospectives, are
cost-effective, and are ready for approval or already approved.
Figure 1: Funnel for wind energy projects (source: Leuphana expert
We know from experience that, up to this point, 7-digit cost
discussions)
amounts incur for wind farms with a 30 to 50 MW capacity.

These costs must be borne by the project developers from
their own pockets (as securing bank loans for financing is only
possible in exceptional circumstances). Failing to be awarded in
the bid process devalues this upfront investment. Investment
costs spent to no avail must be covered by successful projects.
A portfolio of projects ready for the bid phase is therefore required. Only very experienced and well-funded project developers
are able to allocate the additional time and raise the additional
capital. Less financially solid project developers must presumably get together with well-backed investors in the planning
and development phase, and submit consortium bids in the
tender process. Whether the costs of REA funding are reduced
by the tender when wasted upfront expenditure and risks are
calculated into tenders is yet to be seen.
Regional distribution of wind turbines

The associated power to issue statutory instruments (pursuant to 88 of REA 2014) permits regional differentiation
of the tender process. However, no regional differentiation
is provided in the ground-mounted PV installation tender
currently being discussed. The regionally different periods of
sunshine would justify this as would different wind resources.
Without differentiation by region, it would be mainly the
high-yield wind locations near the coast which would come
out on top in a tender process oriented towards price alone.
92
Special Report - Effects of the bidding process
If legislators were to continue down their current path, correction factors as laid down in REA 2014 for determining the
duration of increased initial remuneration for different wind
strengths would become a consideration.
power density
[MW/km]
0 - 0.05
0.05 - 0.1
0.1 - 0.5
0.5 - 1
1-5
5 - 10
Financing of wind turbines

Given orientation towards the tender process stipulated for
ground-mounted PV installations in the draft, the conditions for
actual investment financing do not decrease in the process itself.
A conditional financing commitment could already be available
at the time of tender submission in the bid process provided the
wind farm satisfies the usual credit lending criteria and the price
bid guarantees a sufficient level of cost-effectiveness.
The financing of securities required in the tender process for orientation towards the planned process for the ground-mounted
PV installation tender is considerably more difficult. Since wind
farms are far more powerful than PV installations, the security
payments stipulated by legislators for the seriousness of offers
(initial security) would amount to considerably higher totals.
While in line with current thinking, the figure will be up to
40,000 for ground-mounted PV installations with a capacity
of 10 MW, and could well be 120,000 to 200,000 for wind
farms with a capacity of 30 to 50 MW. Such securities could
Figure 2: Regional distribution of existing wind turbines in 2014,
represent a financing problem.
installed capacity per km, source: [9]
This becomes clearer still for the required securities for implementing projects with surcharge (secondary security). Here,
for ground-mounted PV installations, a security for protection
against a penalty of up to 50 /kW is planned in case of nonrealization or late realization. For a wind farm with a 30 to
50 MW capacity, securities amounting to 1.5 million - 2.5
million may be required. The financing of such amounts is likely
to be difficult. A bank guarantee of this magnitude covering the
realization risk is only available to large-scale, very financially
strong companies or on a project basis, i.e. within the framework of project financing agreed by the bank. Project-related
credit commitments are only usual however under the provision
of wind farm approval. This approval is not likely to be in place
93
in many cases at the time of contract award from the tender

process. Under these circumstances, the realization risk is too
high for many lending banks. This is why only very financially
instituttional and
strategic investors
39 %
energy
provider
10 %
communal energy
(in the broader sense)
51 %
civic
participation,
supra-regional, cummunal energycorparation
minority
21 %
interests
26 %
individual
holder
4%
status 2012:
30,854 MW
onshore, Germany
strong project developers who assume the liability for the guarantee receive such a realization guarantee at all.
Diversity of players
Public participation in wind energy projects has thus far been
very high (Figure 3). Only 10% of the installed capacity is held
by large energy suppliers. According to the legislators, the
diversity of players is to remain, also for tenders ( 2 Para. 5
Section3REA). The assumption in the PV tender enactment is
Figure 3: Installed capacity of onshore wind by owner groups (source:
that the process is so easy that the diversity of players is virtually
[11] Page 45)
automatic. It is for this reason that special regulations for public

projects are not required [10].
However, if it is assumed concluding from the ground-mounted
PV installation tenders that

the price generated is the major criterion for contract
award

larger wind farms are more economical than smaller
wind farms given otherwise identical conditions
the opportunity for public participation is lower the
bigger the wind farms and required capital are, and the
bigger the portfolio must be to reimburse lost tender costs ,
then the biggest possible projects will be won by financially

strong bidders with the largest project portfolios in a tender
process.
The procedure as with the planned ground-mounted PV tender
is not an absolute requirement however. The associated power
to issue statutory instruments in the REA permits in 88 Para.
1 No. 4 the specification of criteria for issuing surcharges in the
tender process. This allows an array of activities for safeguarding
the diversity of players, such as special tender lines, allotments
and development subsidies for particular bidder groups [12].
Dispensing with the tender process for smaller wind projects is
also conceivable.
94
Special Report - Effects of the bidding process
Whilst the new EU guidelines for national environmental
[5] [5] http://www.bmwi.de/DE/Themen/Energie/
protection and energy subsidies [13] dated 28/6/2014 stipulate
ErneuerbareEnergien/EEG-Reform/stellungnahmen-
tenders from 2017 onwards, they do permit subsidies without
photovoltaikfreiflechenanlagen.html, 28/12/2014
tenders for wind turbines with a maximum installed electricity

generating capacity of 6 MW or 6 generating units (no. 127).
[6] [6] Verordnung zur Einfhrung von Ausschreibungen

der fianziellen Frderung fr Freiflchenanlagen sowie
zur nderung weiterer Verordnungen zur Frderung der
Conclusion
erneuerbaren Energien dated February 6, 2015, Fed Law
In order to guarantee planning security and managed transition
Gazette. I S. 208, BMWi-IIIB2 dated 15/01/2015, cited
to the new REA 2017, legislators drew up in REA 2014 transition
below as free-field tender ordinance.
regulations for installations under construction or in the planning
[7] [7] Begrndung zum Gesetzentwurf der Bundesregierung
stage ( 102 REA). Accordingly, wind turbines approved by the
zur grundlegenden Reform des erneuerbare Energien
end of 2016 can enter service up to the end of 2018 under the
Gesetzes und zur nderung weiterer Bestimmungen des
conditions in REA 2014. The transition period applies to the
Energiewirtschaftsrechts, German Bundestag printed
end of 2020 for offshore wind turbines. Significant expansion

of wind turbines can be anticipated over the next 2 to 4 years.
These WTs are already in the planning phase. Given the very
long upfront time periods required for wind turbines of up to
5 years, the transition periods are possibly too short. Many
installations entering the planning stage after 2015 will not be
material 18/1304, 05/05/2014, Page 2

[8] [8] Deutsche WindGuard, Kostensituation der Windenergie an Land in Deutschland, Varel 2013 Pages 2 - 4
[9] [9] Fraunhofer IWES, Windenergie Report Deutschland
2014
[10] [10] Free-field tender ordinance, justification, Page 2,
able to keep to these deadlines. The expansion of wind turbines
available from http://www.bmwi.de/BMWi/Redaktion/
could therefore stagnate in a few years time. Therefore it makes
PDF/V/verordnung-zur-einfuehrung-von-ausschreibungen-
sense to deal now with designing and debating the tender
der-fianziellen-foerderung-fuer-freiflechenanlagen,pro pe
process for wind energy.
rty=pdf,bereich=bmwi2012,sprache=de,rwb=true.pdf
(23.2.2015)
[11] [11] trend:research GmbH und Leuphana Universitt L-
Sources
neburg, Definition und Marktanalyse von Brgerenergie
[1] [1] Renewable Energy Law dated July 21, 2014, Fed Law
in Deutschland, Bremen/Lneburg 2013
Gazette. I Page 1066, changed by Article 4 of the law

dated July 22, 2014, Fed Law Gazette. I Page 121
[2] [2] IZES, Bewertung von Ausschreibungsverfahren als
Finanzierungsmodell fr Anlagen erneuerbarer Energienutzung, Saarbrcken, 2014
[3] [3] Degenhart/Nestle, Marktrealitt von Brgerenergie
[12] [12] Degenhart/Nestle, Marktrealitt von Brgerenergie

und mgliche Auswirkungen von regulatorischen Eingriffen in die Energiewende, Lneburg/Kiel, 2014, Page 97ff.
[13] [13] European Commission, guidelines for national environmental protection and energy subsidies 2014-2020,
C 200/01
und mgliche Auswirkungen von regulatorischen Eingriffen in die Energiewende, Lneburg/Kiel, 2014
[4] [4] http://www.bmwi.de/DE/Themen/Energie/ErneuerbareEnergien/eeg-reform,did=645752.html, 28/12/2014
95
96
Special Report
GERMAN OFFSHORE EXPANSION

SCENARIOS
Andr Sack, Stefan Faulstich, Katrin Janssen, Sebastian Pfaffel
Introduction
delays, as well as the modified legal and economic framework
Since the initial deliberations on expanding wind energy at sea,
conditions, and the planning and approval status at that time.
different scenarios have existed which represent a potential
A modified forecast reduces the figures for 2015, 2020 and
development of installed offshore capacity for Germany. This
2025 by about 12.5% - as a consequence of criticism on the
article provides an overview of the different early and current
too optimistic expansion expectation of the first path by the
scenarios, and enables classification of the scenarios and esti-
federal environment ministry [2].
mation of the future development of offshore wind energy in

Germany on the basis of the current expansion status and the
National action plan for renewable energy (2010).
existing project pipeline.
The national action plan for renewable energy represents

the development of renewable energy expansion in Germany
Previous expansion scenarios
expected by the Federal Government. It includes measures
The two grid studies by dena are amongst the initial expansion
in place at the time of publication, and planned measures,
scenarios worthy of mention. These made, for the first time,
with which this goal is to be achieved in implementing the EU
forecasts on the expansion of offshore wind energy, with
specification (renewables to represent 18% by 2020). Under the
different studies and energy concepts on behalf of the Federal
assumptions that further installations will run relatively speedi-
Government following later. Essentially, all earlier scenarios
ly and usage relevant to the energy sector starts promptly,
overestimated offshore expansion to varying degrees (see Figu-
the action plan forecasts an installed offshore capacity of 10
re 1). The reasons for this lie with the starting difficulties of the
GW by 2020. However, the expansion stated is only possible
entire offshore industry, triggered for example by delays in grid
given expansion of the necessary grid infrastructure in time,
connections, technical and logistical problems, and a lack of
and represents a relatively optimistic estimation [3].
economic and political framework conditions in the initial years.

Energy scenarios (2010). The Energy scenarios for an
dena I (2005). The scope of the dena I grid study was to
energy concept from the Federal Government, authored by
determine the required grid expansion and expansion costs
Prognos, GWS and EWI, form the basis for the energy concept
as a consequence of increased wind energy expansion. The
of the Federal Government from 2010. A fundamental assump-
lower expansion path of the dena I scenario is based upon an
tion in the study is adherence to the specifications for reducing
analysis by DEWI on offshore wind farm planning status in place
greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Ways to prolong the service
in 2004 as regards realization capability. Potential restrictions
lives of nuclear power plants is investigated in four scenarios.
and delays are taken into account with a flat-rate reduction of
The renewable energy expansion goals are met in all scenarios.
20%. The top expansion path results from taking into account
10 GW and 7.6 GW of installed offshore capacity by 2020 are
the planning of regional governments of coastal states for the
assumed in scenarios I-III and IV respectively [4].
respective grid connection points. This leads to a slightly raised

offshore capacity in 2007 and 2010. From 2015, the two paths
EWEA (2011). EWEA publishes expansion scenarios for wind
again form a common scenario [1]. .
energy in Europe as part of the Pure Power reports. These

scenarios set out forecasts for the whole of Europe and show
dena II (2010). As a follow-on study of dena I, the dena
onshore and offshore capacities for individual countries. In its
II grid study expects a development of the offshore wind
2011 report, EWEA differentiates between two scenarios antici-
energy expansion highlighted, delayed by five years due to
pating 8 and 10 GW of installed offshore capacity for Germany
capacity bottlenecks in the younger years of the wind energy
by 2020 [7].
industry. The updated dena II scenario takes into account the

WindMW GmbH
97
installed capacity offshore [GW]
Federal environment ministry Leitstudie (2012).
dena I (2005)
dena II (2010)
nat. action plan RE (2010)
scenarios of energy (2010)
EWEA (2011)
pilot study BMU (2012)
actual development
24
20
16
The Long-term scenarios and strategies for renewable energy expansion in Germany, known as the federal environment ministry
pilot study, was authored by DLR, IWES and IFNE and contains
three long-term scenarios to 2050. Every scenario is based around
the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to 2050 by 80% as
12
compared to 1990 [5]. The scenarios differ primarily in the trans-
port sector, meaning they run identically to 2020 as with regards

to offshore wind energy (10 GW), and there is only a minimum
discrepancy of less than 3% up to 2030 [6].
0
2007
2009
2013
2011
2015
2017
2019
2023
2021
2025
Figure 1: Comparison of early expansion scenarios for offshore wind
Current expansion scenarios
energy in Germany
Other scenarios and expansion goals for offshore wind energy

have been published since 2013. Many studies dispense with
16
specifying annual expansion, others use a time horizon of 10
Foundation Offshore (2013)

Prognos/Fichtner (2013)
Agora (2013)
EWEA (2014)
development goal (2014)
frame of scenario (2014)
frame of scenario (2015)
possible development
actual development
12
years, whilst others use year 2020 as the forecast time. The
following studies take into consideration the delays which
have already occurred in offshore expansion, and so lie closer
together. Refer to Outlook for a more detailed explanation of
the potential expansion path.
Prognos / Fichtner (2013). The scenario is from the study

Cost reduction potential for offshore wind energy in Germa-
0
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
ny. It describes a lower expansion path up to the year 2023
Figure 2: Comparison of current expansion scenarios for offshore
with moderate expansion within a market environment stable
wind energy in Germany
over the long term, and an optimistic upper path, the basis of
which is represented by an optimum market environment and
adherence to the then political goals (10 GW to 2020 [5]). The
20
more probable lower expansion path according to the authors

15
achieves 6 GW in 2020 and 10 GW by 2023 [8].
10
Stiftung Offshore (2013). Two expansion paths were

developed based upon other expansion scenarios in a study
into the opportunities and challenges of the maritime industry.

In the ambitious, first expansion path, the expansion goal of
4)
01
01
4
(2
(2
No
ve
lle
RE
A
EA
EW
O
ffs
n
tio
01
3)
3)
(2
(2
01
ho
re
er
ht
n
no
s-
un
da
Fo
Pr
og
ud
y
st
lo
t
Fic
BM
U
EA
(2
(2
01
2)
01
1)
0)
(2
01
pi
io
ar
en
EW
0)
gy
(2
01
of
pl
an
n
ct
io
sc
t.
a
na
en
er
RE
II
na
de
de
n
I(
(2
20
0
5)
01
0)
Figure 3: Comparison of expansion paths of installed offshore capacity

for 2020
98
10 GW to 2020 [5] is achieved with relatively constant expansion. The second expansion path factors in more unfavorable
framework conditions, grid connection delay problems existing
Special Report - German offshore expansion scenarios
at the time of publication, and only offshore wind farms with
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (2.9 GW), Schleswig-Holstein
secure grid connections, corresponding to a capacity of 5.6 GW
(3 GW) and Lower Saxony (10.2 GW), so 16.1 GW of offshore
by 2020 [9].
capacity in total [13].
Agora (2013). In the Agora study into renewable energy
Scenario framework (2015). In January 2015 the BNetzA
expansion at optimal cost, two alternative expansion paths are
approved the updated scenario framework of TSOs for O-GDP
investigated on the basis of the pilot scenario of GDP 2013.
2015. This takes into consideration the modified goals of the
Both alternatives place the focus on onshore wind energy as
REA amendment. Scenario A satisfies the goals set for 2025
the cheapest form of renewable energy. Resulting from this
(renewables making up 40% of gross electricity consumption
is a reduced offshore expansion corridor in range 5 7 GW
- see 1 REA) with an anticipated offshore expansion level of 8.9
in 2023 and 9 14 GW by 2033. Used as the basis for the
GW, whilst the other scenarios reach a figure of 45% with 10.5
upper corridor is the notion of concentrated renewable energy
GW of installed offshore capacity [14].
expansion at optimal locations. The lower threshold implies on

the other hand generation located closely to consumption, and
Goals to 2020
load-oriented renewable energy expansion [10].
The comparison of expansion scenarios for 2020 in Figure 3

shows the development of expansion paths over time. Whilst
EWEA (2014). 2014 sees an updated estimation following the
the dena I scenario in 2005 assumed over 20 GW of installed
EWEA scenario in 2011. It contains adaptations to modified
capacity, the dena II estimation five years later was between 14
political and economic framework conditions, and factors in the
GW and 16.3 GW. The expansion goal of the Federal Government
offshore delays. Three sub-scenarios give a forecast of installed
from 2010 amounting to 10 GW [5] turned out in subsequent
wind energy capacity in 2020. The central scenario corresponds
years to be simply an upper threshold for the scenarios. With
to the expansion goals of the Federal Government, 6.5 GW (see
the exception of the federal environment ministry Leitstudie, a
below). The two other sub-scenarios forecast 5 and 7.5 GW for
downward tendency of the lower expansion paths was identifiable
Germany [11].
in all scenarios following 2010. These reduce from over 7.5 GW

to 5 - 6 GW in the most recent publications. The new goal of
Expansion goal (2014). The Federal Government has re-
the Federal Government, of 6.5 GW by 2020 [12], ultimately
vised its offshore expansion goals with the 2014 REA amendment.
fits in with this downward trend.
The previous goal of 10 GW by 2020 was reduced to 6.5 GW,

whilst 15 GW instead of the original 25 GW is to be reached by
Current situation and outlook

Expansion status. Table 1 shows that 1044 MW from the
2030 (see 3 REA) [12].
German North and Baltic Seas was connected at the end of

Scenario framework
(2014). The scenario framework
2014. A further 1309 MW were installed but not connected
forms the basis for the annual O-GDP, which determines the
to the grid. This capacity is likely to come online during 2015.
necessary expansion requirement for the offshore transmission
Four offshore wind farms were under construction in 2014,
grid. Scenario A shows 11.5 GW for year 2024, correspon-
and the start of construction of four more with final investment
ding to the capacity of all offshore wind farms approved by the
decisions in place is scheduled for 2015. Approved by the
BSH by the end of 2013. The assumption of 12.7 GW in pilot
BSH in 2014 were an additional 23 offshore wind farms with
scenario B is based upon the federal environment ministry pilot
a capacity of just under 7 GW. Efforts are underway to seek
study with a delay addition of two years. Scenario C is derived
final investment decisions and assignments of grid connection
from the total expansion goals of the coastal populations of
capacities. Another 49 offshore wind farms with a capacity of
99
status
no. of offshore wind farms
capacity [MW]
around 18 GW are at the BSH seeking approval, whilst another
operating
1,044*
installed
1,309*
in construction
923
early planning phase. The capacity figures for future farms are
financed
1,220
approximate in line with the current planning status. Also, some
approved
23
6,978
submitted
49
18,264
of the offshore wind farms in the application and planning
planed
45
14,549
45 offshore wind farms with a capacity of 14.5 GW are in the
processes are assigned dual allocation of areas, meaning not all

offshore wind farms mentioned can be realized..
* Capacity is accurate down to the last installation and so contains wind

turbines from farms partially installed / in use
Outlook. Figure 4 shows growth potential up to year 2024
Table 1: Project status of offshore wind farms / offshore capacities in the
based upon the current development status. The upper
German North and Baltic Seas
threshold of the offshore expansion represents the grid connection capacity, installed by TSOs over the upcoming years.
Without the BorWin 4 grid connection which the BNetzA would
12
capacity of interconnection
pipeline of project
possible development
development goal (2014)
like to drop according to the current planning status [15], the

grid connection capacity will reach 12.6 GW in 2024 [13].
One potential expansion path can be depicted using an ap-
proximation of the respective project stages, making use of

previous empirical values and various assumptions. The framework conditions form the scheduled year of entering service
for the relevant grid connections and the maximum assignable

grid connection capacity to EnWG (Energy Industry Act). 17d
0
2014
Section 3 of EnWG states that assignment of 6.5 GW of grid

2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
connection capacity by the end of 2020 with subsequent
Figure 4: Potential expansion path for offshore wind energy in
annual increases of capacity by 800 MW is possible. In terms
Germany
of transition, 7.7 GW can be assigned up to the end of 2017

according to 118 Section 14 EnWG [16]. .
Up to 2014, about 3.8 years on average passed following the
final investment decision, and following construction start,
about 2.3 years on average until an offshore wind farm finally
begins operation. These values are used to forecast the time
required for farms which were in the construction phase in
2014, or for which a final investment decision was in place,
will come online. Four offshore wind farms with a capacity of
around 1240 MW must verify their financing by 01/07/2015,
and construction start by 01/07/2016, otherwise the BNetzA
should retract its commitment to the grid connection ( 17d
Section 6 EnWG). On-time financing as well as construction
start on the due dates are assumed for these wind farms.
100
Special Report - German offshore expansion scenarios
The depiction of a potential development beyond the previous
[3]
German Federal Government, Nationaler Aktionsplan fr
assumptions is associated with great insecurity because the
erneuerbare Energie gem der Richtlinie 2009/28/EG zur
other approved farms are in uncertain project phases and some
Frderung der Nutzung von Energie aus erneuerbaren Quellen,
have no grid connection commitment. Observance of 17d
Berlin, 2010.
Section 6 EnWG is assumed for these offshore wind farms, me-
[4]
konzept der Bundesregierung, Basel/Cologne/Osnabrck, Aug.
aning construction is to start no later than 12 months prior to
2010.
the scheduled start of operation of the respective grid connection. The farms in Cluster 3 with the DolWin 2 grid connection
Prognos AG, EWI und GWS, Energieszenarien fr ein Energie-
[5]
German Federal Government, Energiekonzept fr eine umwelt-
represent a special case. Due to the restricted capacity of 1302
schonende, zuverlssige und bezahlbare Energieversorgung,
MW approved, only a maximum of 900 MW will be able to go
Berlin, Sep. 2010.
online in this cluster.
[6]
DLR, Fraunhofer IWES and IFNE, Langfristszenarien und Strate-
gien fr den Ausbau der erneuerbaren Energien in Deutschland
The project pipeline includes all farms approved in 2014 which
bei Bercksichtigung der Entwicklung in Europa und global,
were able to enter service without delay on completion of their
March 2012.
corresponding grid connection lines and consideration of their
[7]
maximum capacity. Also, it is assumed that construction progress of all farms not yet financed is aligned to the completion
[8]
capacity and the expansion cap to 17d and 118 EnWG

remain unconsidered, meaning this expansion path represents
a purely theoretical option from 2020 onwards.
Prognos AG and Fichtner Group, Kostensenkungspotenziale

der Offshore-Windenergie in Deutschland, Berlin, Aug. 2013.
date of the relevant grid connection in due consideration of

the minimum project term. The assignment of grid connection
European Wind Energy Association, Pure Power: Wind energy

targets for 2020 and 2030, Jul. 2011.
[9]
Stiftung OFFSHORE-WINDENERGIE, Herausarbeitung von Chancen und Herausforderungen fr die Hafen- und Werftwirtschaft
im Zuge der Offshore-Windenergieentwicklung, Jan. 2013.
[10] Agora Energiewende, Kostenoptimaler Ausbau der Erneuerbaren Energien in Deutschland: Ein Vergleich mglicher Strategien
Achieving the expansion goal of the Federal Government by

2020 under the assumptions given appears to be possible if
no delays postpone expansion and, as a minimum, framework
conditions remain unchanged. Accordingly, approximately
9.3GW of installed capacity can be anticipated by 2024.
fr den Ausbau von Wind- und Solarenergie in Deutschland bis

2033, May 2013.
[11] European Wind Energy Association, Wind energy scenarios for
2020, Jul. 2014.
[12] Expansion of renewable energy law: REA 2014, 2014.
[13] 50Hertz Transmission GmbH, Amprion GmbH, TenneT TSO
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[14] Federal Network Agency, Genehmigung des Szenariorahmens
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[16] Electricity and Gas Supply Law: EnWG, 2014
101
102
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html
Author - Contacts
Critical raw materials in wind power expansion

Wuppertal Institute
Dr. Peter Viebahn peter.viebahn@wupperinst.org
Dip.-Umweltwiss. Ole Soukup ole.soukup@wupperinst.org
Balancing power from wind turbines
Fraunhofer IWES
M.Eng. Malte Jansen malte.jansen@iwes.fraunhofer.de
M.Sc. Dominik Jost dominik.jost@iwes.fraunhofer.de
Regional market value factors for wind power
Fraunhofer IWES / Federal Network Agency (BNetzA)
Dipl. Ing. Ann-Katrin Gerlach ann-katrin.gerlach@iwes.fraunhofer.de
Dr. Carsten Pape carsten.pape@iwes.fraunhofer.de
Peter Stratmann peter.stratmann@bnetza.de
Effects of the bidding process
Leuphana Univerity of Lneburg
Prof. Dr. Heinrich Degenhart degenhart@uni.leuphana.de
German offshore expansion scenarios
Fraunhofer IWES
Andr Sack andre.sack@iwes.fraunhofer.de
M.Sc. Stefan Faulstich stefan.faulstich@iwes.fraunhofer.de
Dipl. -Betriebsw. (FH) Katrin Janssen katrin.janssen@iwes.fraunhofer.de
M.Sc. Sebastian Pfaffel sebastian.pfaffel@iwes.fraunhofer.de
Editorial team wind energy report
Fraunhofer IWES
windmonitor@iwes.fraunhofer.d
Further information and latest data on wind energy in

Germany are avaible from www.windmonitor.de
200 m measurement
mast near Wolfhagen
(Kassel), operated by
Fraunhofer IWES,
Fraunhofer IWES
109
Fraunhofer IWES
Fraunhofer IWES. The research of the Fraunhofer Institute

for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology IWES includes
the entire spectrum of the wind energy and the integration of
renewable energies in power structures.
The Fraunhofer IWES was founded in 2009 from the merger of
the former Fraunhofer Center for Wind Energy and Maritime
Engineering CWMT in Bremerhaven and the Institut fr Solare
Energieversorgungstechnik ISET e.V. in Kassel. The Fraunhofer
IWES currently has a workforce of about 500 people.
Fraunhofer IWES Kassel,
The Fraunhofer IWES works very closely with the organized in
Fraunhofer IWES
ForWind composite universities in Hanover, Oldenburg and Bremen. Further intensive cooperation exists with the Universities
of Kassel and Stuttgart.
Research areas. The research work of Fraunhofer IWES
covers all aspects of wind energy, including materials development, grid optimization, and energy system technology for all
forms of renewable energy.
Main research:

Technology and operational management of WTs and

wind farms
Fraunhofer IWES Nordwest, Bremerhaven,
Dynamics of WTs and components
Component development for rotors, drivetrains, and

foundations
Fraunhofer IWES
Test and evaluation methods for WTs and components
Environmental analysis of wind, sea and seabed for utilization of wind energy and marine energy
Control and system integration of decentralized energy

converters and storage systems
Systec Test center for smart grid and electromobility,

Fraunhofer IWES
110
Energy management and grid operation
Energy supply structures and system analysi
Test centers and laboratories. The Fraunhofer IWES has

extensive testing and experiment facilities, laboratories and
equipment facilities. The specialization extends as far, that new
test facilities and procedures were developed and implemented.
Together with the expertise of the scientists, the Fraunhofer
IWES provides its customers and partners a forward-looking research and development infrastructure which goes far beyond
the usual. The main facilities are:

Competence center for rotor blades
Offshore ageing sites
Wind measurement network and 200 meter measuring

mast
Laboratory for control systems for large WTs
Experimental Center for Bioenergy Systems Engineering
Hessian biogas research center
Roller test bench for electromobility at Fraunhofer IWES,,
DeMoTec Design Center for Modular Supply Technology
Fraunhofer IWES
IWES-SysTec Test Center for Intelligent Grids and

Electromobility
Accredited test laboratories for converters and EMV
Nacelle test bench
Photovoltaic systems test field
Battery storage laboratory
Test center for rotor blades at Fraunhofer IWES,

Fraunhofer IWES
111
List of abbreviations and units
List of abbreviations
List of units
BDEW Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft
kW Kilowatt
kWh
(German Association of Energy and Water Industries
Kilowatt hour
BMWi Bundesministerium fr Wirtschaft und Energie
MW Megawatt
MWh
(Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy)
Megawatt hour
BNetzA Bundesnetzagentur
GW Gigawatt
(Federal Network Agency)
GWh
BSH
Bundesamt fr Schifffahrt und Hydrographie
TW Terrawatt
(Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency)
TWh
DiBT
Deutsches Institut fr Bautechnik
m Meter
(German Institute for Building Technology)
km Kilometer
Gigawatt hour
Terrawatt hour
EnLAG Energieleitungsausbaugesetz
Euro
ct Euro-Cent
(Electricity Grid Expansion Act)
EnWG Energiewirtschaftsgesetz

(Energy Industry Act)
EWEA European Wind Energy Association
Special terms
GDP
farshore Offshore wind farm with distance to coast
Grid development plan
HVDC High-Voltage, Direct Current (HVDC) electric power

transmission
IWES
Institute for wind energy and energy system
technology
KfW
Kreditanstalt fr Wiederaufbau
(Reconstruction Credit Institute)
O-GDP Offshore-grid development plan

PV Photovoltaic
REA
Renewable Energies Act
RMSE
Root-mean-square deviation
StrEG Stromeinspeisungsgesetz

(Electricity Feed-In From Renewables Act)
TSO
Transmission service operator
UK
United Kingdom
WT
Wind turbine
WMEP wissenschaftliches Mess- und Evaluierungsprogramm

112
(Scientific Measurement and Evaluation Program)
of more than three sea miles

nearshore Offshore wind farm with distance to coast
of less than three sea miles
Fraunhofer IWES | Kassel

Knigstor 59
34119 Kassel / Germany
Tel.: 0561 7294-0
Fax: 0561 7294-100
Fraunhofer IWES | Bremerhaven
Am Seedeich 45
27572 Bremerhaven / Germany
Tel.: 0471 902629-0
Fax: 0471 902629-19
info@iwes.fraunhofer.de
www.iwes.fraunhofer.de
Funded by:
on the base of an act of the German

Parliament
Supervised by:

Wind Germany 2014 IWES

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FRAUNHOFEr INSTITUTE FOR WIND ENERGY AND SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY IWES

wind energY report

wind energY report

WIND ENERGY REPORT GERMANY 2014

Wind in the renewable energy mix .

Situation across the world . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Grid integration and expansion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Feed-in levels and yields .

Grid operation and expansion

Legal and financial framework conditions

Expansion of offshore wind energy

Wind and wave conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

Legal and financial framework conditions . . . . . . . . 67

THE YEAR OF RECORDS

Wind energy is making great strides. 2014 saw 51 GW of wind

To a minor extent, Germany is able to base its energy supply

on its own raw materials, and is consequently playing a leading

been so high. Already 3% of worldwide power consumption

international role in many part aspects of the energy transition.

is being covered by wind energy (as of 2013). In Germany,

At the same time however, Germany must ensure it retains

2014 2014 saw 9.7% of gross power consumption provided

the expertise it builds up and the multifaceted technological

by wind energy following the record expansion of 5,188 MW.

edge to turn the energy transition into an economic success

Onshore, the highest gross expansion in Germanys history was

sustainable in the long term. All decisions and actions have an

reached with a figure of 4665 MW, and at sea wind capacity

effect on the development of wind energy usage. The German

has doubled with an increase of 523 MW.

Wind Energy Report reflects once a year on the current status,

For the first time in Germany, all renewable energies together

to-date information is available from www.windmonitor.de.

provide the highest share of gross power consumption - just

The Wind Energy Report is published as part of the

(2012) and now also the previously most important energy

Offshore~WMEP project funded by the federal ministry for

source, brown coal.

business affairs and energy.

The most important interim goals for renewable energies are

Prof. Dr. Clemens Hoffmann

Dr. Kurt Rohrig

energy transition, indicate the social efforts of organizing the

supply of energy in a viable and sustainable manner. Fluctuating

Fraunhofer IWES Kassel

Fraunhofer IWES Kassel

framework conditions, such as the current drop in crude oil

WIND ENERGY REPORT GERMANY 2014

Record year 2014. In Germany, the expansion figures

Offshore, the HelWin 1 grid link with a capacity of 580 MW

went online. SylWin 1 and BorWin 2, with a total capacity of

installation figure of 5,188MW surpassed the previous maximum

1660MW, are currently being tested in a trial. In the preliminary

(from 2002) by more than 60%. With an overall capacity of

39,259MW, for the first time, wind energy in Germany covers

connections having an overall capacity of 10.3GW are planned.

9.7% of gross power consumption. On the global scale a capacity

Onshore. 2014 saw a total of 44different turbine types installed

Power mix. At 161 TWh, renewable energies in Germany

which was previously dominant. Added turbines have on average

the tender procedures coming into force in 2017.

1.6GW, as in the two previous years. The greatest expansion was

Installed capacity, cumulated

New installed capacity