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ReliabilityofComplexSystems,thisIssue'sHotTopic

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ReliabilityHotWire

Issue2,April2001

HotTopics
DeterminingReliabilityforComplexSystems
Part1AnalyticalTechniques
Acomplexsystemisonethatcannotbebrokendowntogroupsofseriesandparallelcomponents.Inmanycasesitisnoteasytorecognize
whichcomponentsareinseriesandwhichareinparallelinacomplexsystem.Thefollowingnetworkisagoodexampleofsuchacomplex
system:

Asthefigureillustrates,thissystemcannotbebrokendownintoagroupofseriesandparallelsystems.Thiscomplicatestheproblemof
determiningthesystem'sreliability.Ifthesystemcanbebrokendowntoseries/parallelconfigurations,itisarelativelysimplematterto
determinethemathematicaloranalyticalformulathatdescribesthesystem'sreliability.However,foracomplexsystem,determinationofthe
systemreliabilitybecomesmoreinvolved.
Inthisarticle,wewilllookatsomeofthetechniquesthatcanbeemployedtodeterminethemathematicalexpressionthatexpressesthe
reliabilityofthesystemintermsofthereliabilitiesofitscomponents.Itisassumedthatthereliabilityvaluesforthecomponentshavebeen
determinedusingstandard(oraccelerated)lifedataanalysistechniques,sothatthereliabilityfunctionforeachcomponentisknown.With
thiscomponentlevelreliabilityinformationavailable,itthenbecomesnecessarytodeterminehowthesecomponentreliabilityvaluesare
combinedtodeterminethereliabilityfunctionfortheoverallsystem.
Thereareanumberofadvantagestousinganalyticaltechniquestodeterminesystemreliability,asopposedtothemorecommonmethodof
usingsimulation.Theprimaryadvantageoftheanalyticalsolutionisthatamathematicalexpressionthatdescribesthereliabilityofthe
systemisobtained.Oncethesystem'sreliabilityfunctionhasbeendetermined,othercalculationsonthesystemcanbeperformed.Such
calculationsinclude:
Determinationofthesystem'spdf.
Determinationofthewarrantyperiod.
Determinationofthesystem'sfailurerate.
Determinationofthesystem'sMTTF.
Inaddition,optimizationandreliabilityallocationtechniquescanbeutilizedtoaidengineersintheirdesignimprovementefforts.Another
advantageofusinganalyticaltechniquesistheabilitytoperformstaticcalculationsandanalyzesystemswithamixtureofstaticandtime
dependentcomponents.Finally,thereliabilityimportanceofcomponentsovertimecanbecalculatedwiththismethodology.
Severalmethodsexistforanalyticallyobtainingthereliabilityofacomplexsystem:
Decompositionmethod
Eventspacemethod
Pathtracingmethod
Wewillexamineeachofthesemethods,illustratingthetechniquesinvolvedwithsimplesystemexamples.
DecompositionMethod
Thedecompositionmethodisanapplicationofthelawoftotalprobability.Itinvolveschoosinga"key"componentandthencalculatingthe
reliabilityofthesystemtwice:onceasifthekeycomponentfailed(R=0)andonceasifthekeycomponentsucceeded(R=1).Thesetwo
probabilitiesarethencombinedtoobtainthereliabilityofthesystem,sinceatanygiventimethekeycomponentwillbefailedoroperating.
Usingprobabilitytheory,theequationis:

Assumingthatthecomponentsarestatisticallyindependent,thisreducesto:

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Considerthreeunitsinseries.
AistheeventofUnit1success
BistheeventofUnit2success
CistheeventofUnit3success
sistheeventofsystemsuccess
Firstselecta"key"componentforthesystem.SelectingUnit1,theprobabilityofsuccessofthesystemis:

IfUnit1survives,then:

Thatis,ifUnit1isoperating,theprobabilityofthesuccessofthesystemistheprobabilityofUnits2and3succeeding.
IfUnit1fails,then:

Thatis,ifUnit1isnotoperating,thesystemhasfailedsinceaseriessystemrequiresallofthecomponentstobeoperatingforthesystem
tooperate.
Thusthereliabilityofthesystemis:

AnotherIllustrationoftheDecompositionMethod
Considerthefollowingsystem:

AistheeventofUnit1success
BistheeventofUnit2success
CistheeventofUnit3success
sistheeventofsystemsuccess
SelectingUnit3asthekey,thesystemreliabilityis:

IfUnit3survives,then:

Thatis,sinceUnit3representshalfoftheparallelsectionofthesystem,aslongasitisoperating,theentiresystemoperates.
IfUnit3fails,thenthesystemisreducedto:

Thereliabilityofthesystemisgivenby:

or:

EventSpaceMethod
Theeventspacemethodisanapplicationofthemutuallyexclusiveeventsaxiom.Allmutuallyexclusiveeventsaredetermined,andthose
whichresultinsystemsuccessareconsidered.Thereliabilityofthesystemissimplytheprobabilityoftheunionofallmutuallyexclusive
eventsthatyieldasystemsuccess.Similarly,theunreliabilityistheprobabilityoftheunionofallmutuallyexclusiveeventsthatyielda
systemfailure.Thisisillustratedinthefollowingexample.
Considerthefollowingsystem,withreliabilitiesR1,R2,andR3foragiventime:

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AistheeventofUnit1success
BistheeventofUnit2success
CistheeventofUnit3success
Themutuallyexclusivesystemeventsare:
X1=ABCallunitssucceed
X2=ABConlyUnit1fails
X3=ABConlyUnit2fails
X4=ABConlyUnit3fails
X5=ABCUnits1and2fail
X6=ABCUnits1and3fail
X7=ABCUnits2and3fail
X8=ABCallunitsfail
SystemeventsX6,X7,andX8resultinsystemfailure.Thustheprobabilityoffailureofthesystemis:

SinceeventsX6,X7,andX8aremutuallyexclusive,then:

And:

Combiningtermsyields:

Since:

then:

Thisisofcoursethesameresultastheoneobtainedpreviouslyusingthedecompositionmethod.
IfR1=99.5%,R2=98.7%,andR3=97.3%,then:

orRs=99.95%.
PathTracingMethod
Withthismethod,everypathfromastartingpointtoanendingpointisconsidered.Sincesystemsuccessinvolveshavingatleastonepath
availablefromoneendoftheReliabilityBlockDiagram(RBD)totheother,aslongasatleastonepathfromthebeginningtotheendofthe
pathisavailable,thesystemhasnotfailed.OnecouldconsidertheRBDtobeaplumbingschematic.Ifacomponentinthesystemfails,the
"water"cannolongerflowthroughit.Aslongasthereisatleastonepathforthe"water"toflowfromthestarttotheendofthesystem,the
systemissuccessful.Thismethodinvolvesidentifyingallofthepathsthe"water"couldtakeandcalculatingthereliabilityofthepathbased
onthecomponentsthatliealongthatpath.Thereliabilityofthesystemissimplytheprobabilityoftheunionofthesepaths.Inorderto
maintainconsistencyoftheanalysis,startingandendingblocksforthesystemmustbedefined.
Considerthefollowingsystem:

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ThesuccessfulpathsforthissystemareX1=ABDandX2=ACD.Thereliabilityofthesystemissimplytheprobabilityoftheunionofthese
paths.

Thus:

Inthefollowingsystem,astartingandanendingnodemustbedefined.

Assumethefollowingstartingandendingnodes:

ThepathsforthissystemareX1=1,2andX2=3.Theprobabilityofsuccessforthesystemisgivenby:

or:

AmodifiedversionofthismethodisusedbyReliaSoft'sBlockSimtocalculatetheanalyticalsolutiontosystemreliabilitydiagrams.
Theexamplesusedtoillustratethesetechniquesusedfairlysimplesystemstosimplifythemathematicsinvolved.Thesametechniquescan
beusedtodeterminethereliabilityofmorecomplexsystems.Itshouldbefairlyobviousthattheexpressionsforthesystemreliabilitywill
getlargerasthenumberofcomponentsinthesystemincreases.Thewaythecomponentsarearrangedreliabilitywisewillalsohavean
effectonthesizeofthefinalsystemreliabilityterm.Infact,evenmoderatelysizedcomplexsystemscanprovetobetoounwieldytosolve
byhand.Computerprogramscanbeemployedtosolvetheselargecomplexsystems,buttothebestofourknowledge,ReliaSoft'sBlockSim
istheonlysoftwarepackageavailablethatiscapableofthistypeofanalysis.
Whiletheseanalyticaltechniquesfordeterminingsystemreliabilitycanyieldresultsnotavailablewithothertechniques,therearealsosome
drawbacks.Thebiggestdisadvantageoftheanalyticalmethodisthatformulationscanbecomeverycomplicated.Themorecomplicateda
systemis,thelargerandmoredifficultitwillbetoanalyticallyformulateanexpressionforthesystem'sreliability.Forparticularlydetailed
systems,thisprocesscanbequitetimeconsuming,evenwiththeuseofcomputers.Furthermore,whenthemaintainabilityofthesystemor
someofitscomponentsmustbetakenintoconsideration,ananalyticalsolutionmaybeimpossibletocompute.Inthesesituations,theuseof
simulationmethodsmaybemoreadvantageousthanattemptingtodevelopasolutionanalytically.Wewilltakealookatthesesimulation
methodsinnextmonth'sissueofReliabilityHotWire.
Copyright2001ReliaSoftCorporation,ALLRIGHTSRESERVED

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