Escolar Documentos
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230
It should be noted that many analysts attribute the high unemployment rate to Argentinas rigid labor laws rather than to peso
overvaluation. Other analysts have pointed to the deteriorating
education system as causing wage stagnation and increased
demands by the Peronist labor unions for job security.
231
Key indicators
GDP ($ billions)
Real GDP growth (%)
Consumer price inflation (%)
Population (millions)
Exports of goods ($ millions)
Imports of goods ($ millions)
Current-account balance ($ millions)
Foreign-exchange reserves excluding gold ($ billions)
Total external debt ($ billions)
Debt-service ratio (%)
Exchange rate (Ps:US$)
Exhibit I 1.2
1997
1998
1999
293.0
8.1
0.5
35.7
26,431
28,554
11,954
22,320
130.8
50.2
1
298.3
3.9
0.9
36.1
26,441
29,558
14,274
24,752
144.1
57.6
1
282.9
3.1
1.2
36.6
23,316
24,145
12,152
26,252
148.6
63.1
1
2000
2001
2002
2003
0.8
0.9
2.1
4.2
6.9
1
3.7
0.7
1.5
4.4
6.7
1
3.4
0.4
0.8
3.6
6.4
1
3.7
1.3
0.1
3.9
7
1
Local
creditors
Foreign
creditors
Total
32,200
46,700
2,100
81,000
81,000
35,100
23,600
139,700
113,200
81,800
25,700
220,700
232
Exhibit I 1.3
Post-Devaluation Scenarios
Exchange rate
Non-financial sector
(millions of pesos)
Assets
Liabilities
Equity
Change in equity
Banks
(millions of pesos)
Assets
Liabilities
Equity
Change in equity
Current
1.00
1.40
1.70
3.47
80,890
38,046
42,843
80,890
44,988
35,892
16.2%
80,890
50,211
30,678
28.4%
80,890
80,890
0
100.0%
155,023
138,229
16,794
155,023
147,962
7,061
58.0%
155,023
155,023
0
100.0%
Exhibit I 1.4
Public-Sector Impact of
Peso Devaluation (In Pesos
Unless Otherwise Indicated)
Post-Devaluation Scenarios
Current
Exchange rate
Total revenues
Primary spending
Primary balance*
Interest payments
Pesos
U.S. dollars
To local creditors
To foreign creditors
Central bank revenue
1.00
54,900
52,800
2,100
8,000
640
7,360
2,355
5,005
400
1.40
54,900
52,800
2,100
10,063
640
9,423
2,355
7,068
1,128
1.70
54,900
52,800
2,100
11,560
640
10,920
2,355
8,565
1,368
Fiscal balance
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
(5,500)
1.9%
(6,835)
2.4%
(8,092)
2.9%
Case I.2
233
which was arranged in 1996, gives Argentina the
option to sell government bonds to a group of
international banks under a repurchase agreement. Another cost of dollarization would be the
Argentine governments loss of seignorage.
Currently, the currency board stands ready to
convert pesos into dollars but it invests its dollars in interest-bearing assets. These assets would
have to be sold off to get the cash to replace the
pesos currently in circulation.
Mike Lanning also realized that he had to
consider the consequences of these alternative
currency scenarios for his own projects as well as
the likelihood of their materializing.
Questions
1. What are the pros and cons of Argentine peso
devaluation?
2. Given these pros and cons, what is the likeli3.
4.
5.
6.
234
1.2
4%
1.1
3%
Change in dollar value of the real
Reais per dollar
Nov-97
Sep-97
Jul-97
May-97
Mar-97
Jan-97
Nov-96
Sep-96
Jul-96
May-96
Mar-96
0.6
Jan-96
1%
Nov-95
0.7
Sep-95
0%
Jul-95
0.8
May-95
1%
Mar-95
0.9
Jan-95
2%
Dollar
235
Exhibit I 2.2
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Gross Domestic
$445.9
$386.2
387.3
$429.7
$543.1
$705.4
$775.4
$803.0
Product
Current-Account
$3.8
$1.5
$6.1
$0.0
$1.2
$18.1
$24.3
$33.8
Balance
Current-Account
0.9%
0.4%
1.6%
0.0%
0.2%
2.6%
3.1%
4.2%
Balance (% of GDP)
Budget Deficit
1.4%
1.4%
2.2%
0.2%
1.3%
4.8%
3.9%
5.9%
(% of GDP)1
Foreign Investment2
$0.8
$3.9
$16.4
$15.8
$23.8
$25.8
$34.3
$55.1
Portolio
$0.5
$3.8
$14.5
$15.0
$21.6
$22.6
$24.7
$37.2
Direct
$0.3
$0.1
$1.9
$0.9
$2.2
$3.3
$9.6
$17.9
Reserves Excluding
$7.4
$8.0
$22.5
$30.6
$37.1
$49.7
$58.3
$51.4
Gold
Exchange Rate (End
0.000064
0.0004
0.005
0.119
0.846
0.973
1.039
1.116
of Period, Reais/$)3
Inflation (Consumer
1657.7%
493.8%
1156.0% 2828.7% 992.0%
25.9%
11.3%
7.2%
Price Index)
U.S. Inflation Rate
5.4%
4.2%
3.2%
3.0%
2.6%
2.8%
3.0%
2.3%
(CPI)
1
Exchange rate for the real prior to 1994 reflects the effects of two earlier currency replacements.
Source: Current Bank of Brazil Bulletin, April 1998 and Economic Report of the President, February 1998.
236
Exhibit I 2.3
180
160
140
120
100
80
10/31/97
8/29/97
6/30/97
4/30/97
2/28/97
12/31/96
10/31/96
8/30/96
6/28/96
4/30/96
2/29/96
12/29/95
10/31/95
8/31/95
6/30/95
4/28/95
2/28/95
12/30/94
60
237
6%
4.92%
4.22%
4%
2.76%
2%
3.03%
1.03%
0%
0.54%
2%
4%
4.35%
6%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
238
Exhibit I 2.5
70%
60%
Money-market rate
Long-term interest rate
Percentage
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Oct
Aug
Jun
Apr
1996 Feb
Dec
Oct
Aug
Jun
Apr
1995 Feb
Dec
Oct
Aug
Jun
Apr
Feb
1994 Dec
0%
Questions
7.
en in recent years?
8.
9.
10.
11.