Supplement 7

Learning Curves

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

Copyright 2009 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Supplement 7: Learning Objectives

You should be able to:
Explain the concept of a learning curve
Make time estimates based on learning curves
List and briefly describe some of the main
applications of learning curves
Outline some of the cautions and criticisms of learning
curves
Estimate learning rates from data on job times

7S-2

Learning Curves
Learning curve
The time required to perform a task decreases with
increasing repetitions
The degree of improvement is a function of the task
being done
Short, routine tasks will show modest improvement
relatively quickly
Longer, more complex tasks will show improvement
over a longer interval

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Learning

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The Learning Effect

The learning effect is attributed to a variety of factors:
Worker learning
Preproduction factors
Tooling and equipment selection
Product design
Methods analysis
Effort expended prior to the start of work
Changes made after production has begun
Changes in work methods
Changes in tooling and equipment
Managerial factors
Improvements in planning, scheduling, motivation, and control

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Interesting Characteristics of Learning

The learning effect is predictable
The learning percentage is constant

Every doubling of repetitions results in a

constant percentage decrease in the time per
repetition
Typical decreases range from 10 to 20 percent

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Learning Curves: On a Log-Log Graph

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Learning Illustrated
Each time cumulative output doubles, the time per unit for that
amount should be approximately equal to the previous time
multiplied by the learning percentage.
If the first unit of a process took 100 hours and the learning rate is
90%:
Unit

Unit Time (hours)

= 100

.90(100) = 90

.90(90) = 81

.90(81) = 72.9

16

.90(72.9) = 65.61

32

.90(65.61) = 59.049

7S-8

Unit Times: Formula Approach

Tn T1 n b
where
Tn Time for nth unit
T1 Time for first unit
ln r
b
ln 2
r learning rate percentage
ln stands for the natural logarithm
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Example: Formula Approach

If the learning rate is 90, and the first unit took
100 hours to complete, how long would it take to
complete the 25th unit?

T25 100 25

ln .90
ln 2

.15200

100 25
61.3068 hours

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Unit Times: Learning Factor Approach

The learning factor approach uses a table that
shows two things for selected learning
percentages:
Unit value for the number of repetitions (unit number)

Tn T1 Unit time factor

Cumulative value, which enables us to compute the
total time required to complete a given number of
units.

T1 Total time factor

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Learning Factor Table

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Learning Curve Applications

Useful application areas:
Manpower planning and scheduling
Negotiated purchasing
Pricing new products
Budgeting, purchasing, and inventory planning
Capacity planning

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Operations Strategy
Learning curves have strategic implications for:
Market entry when trying to rapidly gain market share
As volume increases, operations is able to move quickly
down the learning curve
Reduced cost improved competitive advantage

Useful for capacity planning

Can lead to more realistic time estimates, thus leading
to more accurate capacity needs assessment

7S-14