S. HRG.

111524

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: JANUARY 2010

HEARING
BEFORE THE

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES
ONE HUNDRED ELEVENTH CONGRESS
SECOND SESSION

FEBRUARY 5, 2010

Printed for the use of the Joint Economic Committee

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56275

2010

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JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE

[Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Congress]
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
CAROLYN B. MALONEY, New York, Chair
MAURICE D. HINCHEY, New York
BARON P. HILL, Indiana
LORETTA SANCHEZ, California
ELIJAH E. CUMMINGS, Maryland
VIC SNYDER, Arkansas
KEVIN BRADY, Texas
RON PAUL, Texas
MICHAEL C. BURGESS, M.D., Texas
JOHN CAMPBELL, California

SENATE
CHARLES E. SCHUMER, New York, Vice
Chairman
JEFF BINGAMAN, New Mexico
AMY KLOBUCHAR, Minnesota
ROBERT P. CASEY, JR., Pennsylvania
JIM WEBB, Virginia
MARK R. WARNER, Virginia
SAM BROWNBACK, Kansas, Ranking Minority
JIM DEMINT, South Carolina
JAMES E. RISCH, Idaho
ROBERT F. BENNETT, Utah

ANDREA P. CAMP, Executive Director

JEFF SCHLAGENHAUF, Minority Staff Director

(II)

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CONTENTS
MEMBERS
Hon. Carolyn B. Maloney, Chair, a U.S. Representative from New York ..........
Hon. Robert P. Casey, Jr., a U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania ............................
Hon. Elijah E. Cummings, a U.S. Representative from Maryland ......................

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3
4

WITNESSES
Statement of Dr. Keith Hall, Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Accompanied by: Mr. John Galvin, Associate Commissioner for Employment
and Unemployment Statistics; and Mr. Phillip Rones, Deputy Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics ......................................................................
SUBMISSIONS

FOR THE

RECORD

Prepared statement of Representative Carolyn B. Maloney ................................

Prepared statement of Representative Kevin Brady ............................................
Prepared statement of Dr. Keith Hall, Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics, together with Press Release No. USDL100141 ......................................

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(III)

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THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: JANUARY 2010

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 2010

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES,

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE,
Washington, DC.
The committee met, pursuant to call, at 9:30 a.m. in Room 216
of the Hart Senate Office Building, The Honorable Carolyn B.
Maloney (Chair) presiding.
Representatives present: Maloney and Cummings.
Senators present: Casey.
Staff present: Brenda Arredondo, Andrea Camp, Gail Cohen,
Colleen Healy, Annabelle Tamerjan, Andrew Wilson, Jane
McCullogh, Jeff Schlagenhauf, Ted Boll, and Robert OQuinn.
OPENING STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE CAROLYN B.
MALONEY, CHAIR, A U.S. REPRESENTATIVE FROM NEW YORK

Chair Maloney. The meeting will come to order. My colleagues

on the other side of the aisle, because of the snow, I have asked
unanimous consent to have their statements placed in the record.
Chair Maloney. We may have some others coming on the Democratic side, but many people have left because of the snow warning.
Well first of all, what a difference a year makes. Todays report
from the Bureau of Labor Statistics provides further evidence that
the labor market has stabilized and that we have turned a corner.
The economy is no longer hemorrhaging jobs. In fact, the unemployment dropped to 9.7 percent, and employment was virtually
unchanged, dropping by 20,000 jobs.
Just over one year ago the current Administration took office,
taking helm of a country suffering the worst crisis since the Great
Depression. In fact, the Council of Economic Advisers Chair, Christina Romer, testified before this Committee that the shocks we endured during this recession were even greater than during the
Great Depression.
During the last three months of the Bush Administration we lost
an average of 727,000 jobs per month. In contrast, during the most
recent three months of the Obama Administration we lost an average of 35,000 jobs each month. We are definitely trending in the
right direction.
But there is no escaping the cruel math of recoveries. The recovery of the job market lags behind the recovery of the broader economy. Businesses must have more customers before they have more
employees. However, thanks to the Recovery Act, which became
law a year ago on February 17th, the economy is growing.
(1)

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The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported last week that in the
final quarter of 2009 the economy expanded at a rate of 5.7 percent. Average weekly hours are climbing, with indications that the
manufacturing sector is driving that upward trend. Since June, the
manufacturing workforce is up 1.2 hours, and job creation in the
temporary help sector is a leading indicator of progress in the labor
market. Since September, temporary help services have added
274,000 jobs, 52,000 in January alone.
Although the labor market appears to be stabilizing, too many
Americans remain out of work. More than 15 million workers are
unemployed. The overall unemployment rate masks how hard some
groups have been hit. While the overall unemployment rate is 9.7,
the unemployment rate is 16.5 percent for African Americans, and
12.6 percent for Hispanics.
Todays Jobs Report makes it clear: We are making progress. But
the road to recovery will be long, and it will not be easy. While we
have brought the economy back from the brink, we are not yet
where we need to be in terms of job creation.
The mission is to create high-quality private-sector jobs. In the
last year, Congress has enacted policies that support struggling
families and encourage job creation. The $700 billion Recovery Act
included a tax cut for 95 percent of American families and created
jobs, while investing in clean energy technologies, infrastructure,
and education.
Last year we extended the $8,000 first-time home buyers credit
that will help spur construction jobs. We extended a host of safety
net programs that will help struggling families weather this economic storm. We extended the Net Operating Loss Carryback Provision that will help small businesses hire new employees. And we
are boosting funding for small business loans via the Small Business Administration.
In order to bring creative ideas on job creation to Congress, I
started the year reaching out to CEOs of Fortune 100 companies
and leaders of small businesses. I asked these employers to share
new ideas on ways to create good private-sector jobs.
In order to jumpstart job growth, I am introducing an Employer
Tax Credit co-sponsored in the Senate by the JEC colleague who
is sitting next to me, Senator Casey, and my fellow New Yorker
Kirsten Gillibrand. This idea was suggested by several of the respondents to the survey.
On Tuesday, February 9th, the Joint Economic Committee will
hold a hearing to discuss job creation ideas from some of Americas
best economists and business leaders. The hearing will include testimony from CBO Director Doug Elmendorf. A recent CBO study
showed that an employer tax credit similar to the one in my bill
is one of the most effective and efficient ways to spur job creation.
I look forward to hearing from all of our witnesses today and at
Tuesdays hearing, and to hear their different perspectives. I encourage all to attend and to be there for Tuesdays hearing.
[The prepared statement of Representative Maloney appears in
the Submissions for the Record on page 20.]
Chair Maloney. I am pleased that my colleague, Congressman
Cummings, is here. Senator Casey is recognized for five minutes.

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OPENING STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE ROBERT P.
CASEY, JR., A U.S. SENATOR FROM PENNSYLVANIA

Senator Casey. Thank you. I want to thank our Chair for gathering us today, and for her comments about the challenges that are
ahead of us.
We are all gratified that the unemployment rate has come down
from month to month. We do not know what that means yet, and
we will be interested to hear some of the analysis about what it
means. I do believe, though, that in places around the country people are still very, very worried, and there is a high degree of anxiety about what lies ahead.
In Pennsylvania I know that when we looked at December numbers, 560,000 people are out of work in Pennsylvania, which translates into an 8.9 percent unemployment rate. Unfortunately, that
number went up in December by 0.4 percent.
And then when you look at individual communities, we have 14
labor markets in our state and we had one that just went to 10 percent, Erie up in northwestern Pennsylvania. We do not know what
this number that we are getting today means for the long term, but
one thing I am sure of: We need a jobs bill passed as fast as possible.
We need a bill that tackles a number of the problems that we
are discussing today. One of the solutions to bringing this unemployment rate down over time I believe, as our Chair just stated
and her good work on this is important, is to have a jobs creation
tax credit. Economists from across the board have made it clear
that it is the right thing to do. It is the fastest way to create jobs
and to grow our Gross Domestic Product.
This is not a theory. We have done it before. We passed a similar
tax credit in the 1970s that created over 700,000 jobs, and a program which has widely been known to be under-advertised. If we
could do that all those years ago without a lot of dissemination of
information, I think a lot of employers would take advantage of
this opportunity to create jobs literally in the next several months,
not the next several years.
So we have a real challenge ahead of us. You need only go to
places like a jobs center. I was in a jobs center in Gettysburg,
Pennsylvania, about 10 days ago now and met 8 unemployed Pennsylvanians out of the 560,000 who have yet to find work. You learn
a lot by literally just listening to the struggles and the worries that
people in our economy feel when they are out of work.
Many of them in this group, and I think this is true across the
board, tend to be over the age of 50, or over the age of 60, and feel
that they not only have an economic challenge but sometimes are
facing discrimination because of their age, but they obviously cannot prove that sometimes. But they feel it. And they fill out application after application, and not just 5 or 10, but 20, and 30, and
50, and 100, and are either rejected outright or never hear back.
We are going to continue to push forward to get a jobs bill
passed; to continue every possible strategy to create jobs in the
near-term. And I want to thank our Chair for getting us together
today.
Chair Maloney. I want to thank the Senator for his comments,
particularly on creating new jobs. We passed a jobs bill in the

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House earlier, so it is encouraging to hear the Senate is now taking
up a focus on creating new jobs, the main focus of President
Obamas speech last night and recently.
Congressman Cummings.
OPENING STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE ELIJAH E.
CUMMINGS, A U.S. REPRESENTATIVE FROM MARYLAND

Representative Cummings. Thank you very much, Madam

Chair.
I would like to associate myself with the words you stated and
the statements of Senator Casey.
After staggering job losses in 2008 and 2009, the national unemployment rate has inched lower for four months now, reaching 9.7
percent today. Ive got to tell you that I am glad that it did not go
up, because if it had gone up we would have some naysayers on
the other side talking about how bad things are. That is not to say
that we do not have problems.
As I have said many, many times: One job lost is one job too
many. There are so many people who are suffering, and I just want
to take the few moments that I have, Madam Chair, to urge our
Republican colleagues to join in as we attempt to address this problem.
You know people are unemployed in every district of our 435
Congressional Districts. Last week the President was in Baltimore,
and he did two things. One, he went to a company that manufactures all kinds of steel casings for things like water purification apparatus, and just did a lot of wonderful things.
One of the things we found out there was that they have been
getting some government contracts, and other contracts from the
private sector, and they may very well be on the verge of hiring a
few more people. It is not a tremendously large company, but when
the President talked about a tax credit that you and Senator Casey
talked about, Madam Chair, for employers to hire folks and to
incentivize them to do that, you could tell that the owner of the
company was simply delighted.
There are so many businesses that are right on the verge of hiring people, it is just a hard decision. And I do not think it is the
solution that is going to necessarily be the one silver bullet, but it
is a part of a whole group of efforts that have been put forth on
the part of the House, and I know will be put forth on the part of
the Senate. But the thing that we have to do now is do what the
President has said:
Folks have got to put the partisanship aside, Madam Chair. As
I say to my constituents, I tell them that we will get through the
storm. This is the United States of America, and we have been
through storms before. But the question is not whether we will get
through the storm; the question is: After the storm is over, who
will be living in your house? Who will have your job? Will you have
your health? Will you have your health insurance? Will your children, when given the golden opportunity to go to school after they
have worked hard and done everything they were supposed to do
from kindergarten through the 12th grade and they bang on the
door of college, will they have been able to go to college at that critical moment? Those are the questions.

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And so I do believe that the things that we have been doing have
been working. But in the words of the President, we can do better.
We can do better. And I just take this moment to urge all of those
people that may be listening to this to urge their Senators09 be
they Republican or Democrat, their Congressman, Republican or
Democratto stand up for them.
It is time the American people had people standing up for them,
putting partisanship aside, so that they can live the best lives that
they can.
Finally, Madam Chair, we have one life to live. This is no dress
rehearsal; this is life. This is it. Some people act like theyve got
a life next door, or theyve got a life over there; no, no, no. This
is it, right here.
So I think it is our duty, when people go to the polls and they
pull that lever, they are not pulling it so that we can win the next
election in a few years. They pull it so that we could win the election that they are voting in, and so that we can immediately act,
and they expect that of us, and nothing less.
And so, on behalf of my constituents, I urge all of our colleagues
to join together to address this issue, and I look forward to hearing
from the witnesses, and with that I yield back.
Chair Maloney. Thank you very much.
Before we begin, I would like to ask unanimous consent to accept
into the record written statements from any Member of this Committee.
[The prepared statement of Representative Kevin Brady appears
in the Submissions for the Record on page 20.]
And now I would like to introduce Commissioner Hall. Dr. Keith
Hall is the Commissioner of Labor Statistics for the U.S. Department of Labor. Prior to that he served as Chief Economist for the
White House Council of Economic Advisers. And prior to that he
was Chief Economist for the U.S. Department of Commerce. Dr.
Hall also spent ten years at the U.S. International Trade Commission.
Welcome, and we hope to hear some good news.
STATEMENT OF DR. KEITH HALL, COMMISSIONER, BUREAU OF
LABOR STATISTICS; ACCOMPANIED BY: MR. JOHN GALVIN,
ASSOCIATE COMMISSIONER FOR EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS; AND MR. PHILLIP RONES, DEPUTY
COMMISSIONER, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

Commissioner Hall. Madam Chair, Members of the Committee,

thank you for the opportunity to discuss the employment and unemployment data we released this morning.
The unemployment rate declined from 10.0 to 9.7 percent in January. Nonfarm Payroll Employment was essentially unchanged,
and on net has shown little movement over the last three months.
In January, job losses continued in construction and in transportation and warehousing, while employment increased in temporary
help services and retail trade.
With revisions released today, job losses since the start of the recession in December 2007 totaled 8.4 million, substantially more
than previously reported.

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Construction employment fell by 75,000 in January, about in line
with the average monthly job loss in 2009. Nonresidential specialty
trade contracting accounted for much of the over-the-month decline. The nonresidential components of construction have accounted for the majority of the industrys job losses since early
2009.
Employment in transportation and warehousing decreased by
19,000 in January. The entire decline occurred in courier and messenger services, which laid off more workers than usual over the
month.
Employment in temporary help services grew by 52,000 over the
month. This industry which provides workers to other businesses
has added nearly a quarter of a million jobs since its recent low
point last September.
Following two months of little change, retail trade employment
increased by 42,000 in January, with gains in several components.
Health care employment continued to rise in January. Overall
manufacturing employment was little changed, although motor vehicles and parts added 23,000 jobs.
Since June, the manufacturing work week for all employees has
increased by 1.2 hours. Federal Government employment rose in
January, partly due to hiring for the decennial census. Employment in State and Local Governments, excluding education, continued to trend down over the month.
Turning now to some measures from our Household Survey, both
the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate declined in January. However, the share of those jobless for 27 weeks
and over continued to rise.
The employment-to-population ratio increased to 58.4 percent
over the month. The number of persons working part-time who
would have preferred full-time employment dropped from 9.2 to 8.3
million, the lowest level in a year.
Before closing, I would note that several changes were introduced
today to The Employment Situation News Release Text and Tables.
Three new Household Survey Tables provide information on the
employment status of Veterans, persons with a disability, and the
foreign-born population. In January the unemployment rate of Veterans from Gulf War Era II was 12.6 percent compared with 10.4
percent for non-Veterans.
Persons with a disability had a higher jobless rate than persons
with no disability: 15.2 percent versus 10.4 percent. In addition,
21.8 percent of persons with a disability were in the labor force,
compared with 70 percent of persons without a disability.
The unemployment rate for the foreign-born was 11.8 percent,
and the rate for the native-born was 10.3 percent. The Establishment Survey Tables have been redesigned to include the addition
to data on hours and earnings for all private-sector employees, as
well as employment information for women.
Women currently make up 49.9 percent of total non-farm payroll
employment, compared with 48.8 percent when the recession began
in December of 2007. Additional information about the new and redesigned tables is available on the BLS website.
I would also note that there were annual adjustments to data
from our two surveys. The Establishment Survey data released

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today reflects the incorporation of annual benchmark revisions.
Each year we re-anchor our sample-based survey estimates to a full
universe count of employment primarily derived from administrative records of the Unemployment Insurance Tax System. Accounting for revisions during the benchmark and post-benchmark periods, the previously published level of nonfarm employment for December was revised downward by 1.4 million. Household Survey
Data for January reflect updated population estimates from the
U.S. Census Bureau. Further information about the impact of these
adjustments is in our news release and on our website.
Returning now to the Labor Market Data we released this morning, the jobless rate declined to 9.7 percent in January, and payroll
employment was essentially unchanged.
My colleagues and I would now be glad to answer your questions.
[The prepared statement of Commissioner Hall appears in the
Submissions for the Record on page 22.]
Chair Maloney. Well thank you very much. What a difference
a year makes. Can you point to any particularly encouraging bright
spots in this months labor report?
Commissioner Hall. I would say there are several things worth
mentioning.
First of course is that the unemployment rate went from 10.0 to
9.7 percent. Also in a related thing, people who are part-time for
economic reasons declined this month. So what that means is our
broadest measure of labor underutilization, those who are unemployed plus those who are marginally attached plus those who are
part-time who want to be full-time, that declined from 17.3 to 16.5
percent. That is a drop of .8 percentage points. That was a nice
sign.
Temporary help has added almost a quarter of a million jobs over
the past four months. Quite often that is a leading indicator of
strengthening in the labor market.
Manufacturing work week now increased .3 hours this month,
and 1.2 hours since June. That also is a leading indicator of it is
an indicator of strengthening in the labor market.
And then of course there are a number of other there is some
other non-labor market data I think that indicates that there may
be some signs of strengthening in the labor market.
Chair Maloney. Could you comment on any further indicators
that overall job losses will continue to slow and turn positive in the
coming months?
Commissioner Hall. Without speculating too much, obviously
the temporary help and the manufacturing work week are both
considered leading indicators of a strengthening labor market. I actually think some of the other data the GDP number that just
came out, although most of that growth in GDP was from inventories, a good portion of it was actually equipment and software investment. Which if you look at that, that actually tracks very nicely with payroll jobs. In other words, when firms bring back invest
in equipment and software, they also tend to bring back employees.
I think the industrial production numbers are also signaling potentially a strengthening labor market.
Chair Maloney. Some economists have estimated that we need
to grow our jobs just to meet the new demand for jobs that they

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estimate is between 100- to 150,000 new payroll jobs. I would like
you to comment on that. And what rate is needed to lower the unemployment rate to what it was in 2007 before the recession began,
at 4.7 percent?
Commissioner Hall. The number of 100- to 150,000, that seems
about accurate for payroll job growth that would keep up with population growth.
Going forward, if the labor market continues to improve we expect people to re-enter the labor force. So actually we might hope
to get stronger payroll job growth than 100- to 150,000. We would
probably need stronger than that to have the unemployment rate
drop in the next few months.
Chair Maloney. Well as you said, some workers are likely to reenter the labor force because they see greater promise of finding a
job now with these numbers. That is good and encouraging. But
isnt it true that those workers re-entry into the labor market will
bump the unemployment rate upwards?
Commissioner Hall. It often does, yes. If the labor market continues to strengthen, in the past certainly whats happened is an
increase in the labor force has caused the unemployment rate to
bump up temporarily.
Chair Maloney. Well how big a factor is it in bumping up the
unemployment?
Commissioner Hall. It certainly has done that in the past. This
particular time we have got a particularly high potential for that
because so many people are unemployed and weve lost so many
people out of the labor force. It is one of those things where I would
say that as we go forward, if we start to see real improvement we
should not get too concerned if the unemployment rate hits a bit
of a speed bump and goes up for a couple of months.
Chair Maloney. Great. My time has expired.
Senator Casey.
Senator Casey. Thank you very much.
I wanted, just preliminarily, to make a comment about where we
are and where we have been. I know, Commissioner, you are not
allowed to make the kind of comments that I will make, but I think
it is important to put it in the record.
We have had a lot of folks in Washington denigrating the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, the so-called Stimulus Bill,
but I think the facts are pretty clear right now that prior to the
Recovery Bill we were losing, between December and March, every
single month for four months, at least 600,000 jobs. And in January of 2009, 741,000 jobs.
Here we are a little more than a year later from January, and
we lost and, I want to make sure the number is right, this month,
is it 20,000?
Commissioner Hall. Yes.
Senator Casey. 20,000 jobs lost. Last month was what?
Commissioner Hall. 150,000.
Senator Casey. 150,000. So at least we are moving in the right
direction. I think a strong case can be made that the Recovery Bill
is having and has had a positive impact, and is at least any fairminded person would say, is beginning to work. So that is I think
important to put on the record.

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But I did want to note in terms of the individual groups or demographic groups that we look at here, I wanted to highlight one segment, one part of our population where the number actually went
up, African Americans. The unemployment rate went up to 16.5?
Is that right?
Commissioner Hall. That is correct.
Senator Casey. And that was up .3 percent?
Commissioner Hall. Yes.
Senator Casey. The only group I guess among if you look at in
terms of just groups, whether it is adult women, adult men, teenagers, White Americans the Hispanic unemployment rate was 12.6?
Commissioner Hall. Yes.
Senator Casey. So one of the only groups, if not the only group,
where the number went up was for African Americans? Is that correct?
Commissioner Hall. I believe thats correct. Im not sure that
number was statistically significant, though.
Senator Casey. Okay. In terms of it being not necessarily a
trend?
Commissioner Hall. Correct. I think the uncertainty in that
number is relatively large.
Senator Casey. Okay. And why is that? Because sometimes
with a group it is harder to get an accurate read just from.
Commissioner Hall. Yes. Our sample size is a little bit smaller.
We over-sample the group relative to the population, but it is still
not as large a sample as say the overall number.
Senator Casey. We of course hope you are wrong about this. We
hope the number is stabilized for African Americans, or going
down.
The other point that I wanted to highlight is the new data. I
think it is pretty significant that you are now tracking Veterans
and persons with disabilities. The Veteran number I wanted to
make sure I had right. This would be Veterans for let me just have
you say it Veterans since the Gulf War?
Commissioner Hall. Yes, the Gulf War Era II, so that is since
September 11.
Senator Casey. Okay. And that number is what?
Commissioner Hall. That number was 12.6 percent.
Senator Casey. Do you know what that works out to be in a
total number?
Commissioner Hall. In terms of the number of unemployed?
Senator Casey. Unemployed Veterans.
Commissioner Hall. It is about 213,000.
Senator Casey. That is a big number. And I guessand I have
only got a minute left, but if you are able to speak with great
speed. Are there data points here that indicate that there are sectors that are growing that we should be encouraged by?
Commissioner Hall. Yes. The short answer is yes. I think one
notable one is that we actually gained 11,000 jobs in manufacturing.
Senator Casey. A net gain in manufacturing?
Commissioner Hall. A net gain in manufacturing. And this is
the first net gain we have had in three years in manufacturing. So
that actually was notable.

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10
Senator Casey. The first time in three years in a monthly number?
Commissioner Hall. Yes. Thats correct.
Senator Casey. Okay.
Commissioner Hall. So that is encouraging. Professional Business Services seems to be back, especially with Temporary Help.
And of course the Health and Education are continuing to grow.
Most of the job loss right now is centered in construction. We lost
75,000 jobs in construction, which is in fact more of the overall loss
of 20,000. So we actually had net gains overall outside of construction.
Senator Casey. Thank you.
Chair Maloney. Congressman Cummings.
Representative Cummings. Lets go to the African American
numbers. You said that it is possible that the numbers might not
be as bad as they appear? Is that right?
Commissioner Hall. Just because it is a relatively it is a smaller sample, so there might be some fluctuation that is due to our
measurement rather than actual changes in the unemployment
rate.
Representative Cummings. Well if I were to guess, I believe
they would be higher. Because I think you have a lot of when I go
to my District, if I went there right now, 40 miles away from here,
you would see a lot of African American men just riding through
my neighborhood who are unemployed, and I do not know whether
their numbers are even registered here. I would venture to guess
that there are parts of my District where the African American
male unemployment rate is 45 to 50 percent.
So I just do not know how we I know you look at stats. As you
were talking I was thinking about the Census and how people get
left out of the Census, not necessarily because of government, governments fault, but they just never get counted. And so I just do
you want to comment on what I just said?
Commissioner Hall. Well, sure. One thing I think we know for
sure is the unemployment rate is very high. It is very high relative
to other groups. When I talked about the .3 increase, I was just
talking about the monthly change, but it is absolutely true that
this is a high number and it has well more than doubled since before the Recession started.
Perhaps a bit of what you are seeing as well is discouraged workers who have dropped out of the labor force, and that would not
be reflected in this 16.5 percent number.
Representative Cummings. Now if the President were to call
you as soon as you got out of this hearing and ask you for a 30second explanation, bottom line, on what you have said, a summary
of what we have got here today, and he said: Where does it look
like we are going? And I know you are limited with your opinions
even with the President, but would you share what you can with
us?
Commissioner Hall. Ill tell you where I see we have come to.
Representative Cummings. All right, Mr. President, go ahead.
Commissioner Hall. The past three months we have had essentially no change in the payroll jobs, which is a dramatic improvement over earlier in the year. And there are lots of indications in

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this data that, with Temporary Help and Hours Worked, that the
labor market may be tightening up which, if that continued, would
be encouraging for job growth going forward.
Representative Cummings. Now has there been any
discernable trend of jobs moving from unskilled labor to skilled
labor, or vice versa, in past recessions? Did we experience any sort
of shift like that? And how about this one?
Commissioner Hall. Yes. This Recession was notable because
the job loss was significant across all groups: Skilled, Unskilled. So
it was a very, very broad job loss. Other recessions have been a little bit more centered in particular industries, particular occupations, than this particular Recession.
Then of course this Recession has just been so deep. We have
had so much job loss that one of the very interesting things will
be when we come to recovery how quickly recovery comes and how
broad it will be. But in terms of this Recession, there is no real pattern in the Skilled/Unskilled yet at this point.
Representative Cummings. Now the Labor Department reported yesterday that worker productivity increased 6.4 percent in
the fourth quarter as companies did more for less. Are these productivity gains centered in certain sectors? Or is that happening
across the board? Or would you have an opinion on that?
Commissioner Hall. It is pretty across the board. We dont
have a lot of breakout on industries on that monthly data, but it
is across the board. And that actually is a very good sign. Strong
productivity growth in the past has been associated with early
stages of an economic recovery. And I think one thing that was notable about that particular release, we have had about three
months of very strong productivity growth, but this is the first
month where we had strong productivity growth and an increase
in hours worked.
Representative Cummings. So what does that mean?
Commissioner Hall. Well in the prior month we had strong
productivity but it was because output dropped by less than hours
dropped. So a sort of strong productivity in sort of a negative way.
And this last release was strong productivity in sort of a positive
way.
Representative Cummings. So Americans are working hard?
Commissioner Hall. Yes.
Representative Cummings. If they can get a job.
Commissioner Hall. Yes.
Representative Cummings. Thank you.
Chair Maloney. Yes. That is a strong statement, Congressman,
and it is very true.
Commissioner Hall, several months ago the BLS released its Employment Projects for the years 2008 to 2018. What does the BLS
project as the largest growth sector in employment over the coming
years? Where do you see the job growth? And is this different from
past projections?
Commissioner Hall. I will mention some of the broad numbers.
Our projections are that the Service Providing Sector will have
something like 96 percent of the job growth. When I say Service
Providing Sector, I dont mean service occupations, but I mean
service industries. And that is consistent with the past.

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We expect the largest employment growth in Professional Business Services, and in Health and Social Systems, in particular. And
that is also fairly consistent I think with our past forecasts.
Inside that, the more detailed industries, were talking about industries like management, scientific and technical consulting, computer system design, employment services, some industries like
that.
Chair Maloney. And how do these projections differ from the
private sector projections that you read about every now and then?
Commissioner Hall. Well one of the things we are doing here
is, and Jack can maybe talk about this a little bit as well, one of
the things we are doing here is we are projecting from inside of a
Recession right now.
So one of the big reasons our numbers now change from the last
projection is we are looking past the Recession. So a lot of these
numbers are looking at recovery out of the Recession in addition
to sort of normal economic growth afterwards.
Do you want to add anything, Jack?
Mr. Galvin. I would say our projections do not differ from private sector projections. In fact, they typically use the same methodology that we use for ours.
Chair Maloney. Okay. Great. I am concerned about the duration of unemployment. The duration of unemployment has been
longer in this recession. Is there a relationship between this long
period of unemployment and compensation and degree of probability of being employed?
Could you comment on this duration of unemployment that has
increased in this recession?
Commissioner Hall. Sure. Unfortunately there does seem to be
pretty strong evidence that the longer the duration of unemployment, the lower the probability of being rehired.
Chair Maloney. Is this different from prior recessions? In prior
recessions have we had these long periods of unemployment?
Commissioner Hall. No. This is by far the worst Recession with
respect to duration of unemployment. The long-term unemployed,
for six months or more, started at a higher level at the beginning
of this Recession, and it has been at record levels now for several
months. Unfortunately in past recessions the long-term unemployed typically grows well into the recovery.
Chair Maloney. Well, could you tell us anything about the demographic characteristics of the long-term unemployed? Are there
characteristics in terms of educational attainment, in terms of any
category?
Commissioner Hall. We may have to get back to you on the details oh, okay. We do have something. Im sorry.
The duration is particularly high in of the long-term unemployed,
certain demographic groups are over-represented. For example,
those without a high school diploma are over-represented in longterm unemployed. African Americans are over-represented in longterm unemployed. Even those with a high school diploma but no
college are over-represented in the long-term unemployed.
Chair Maloney. My time is expired. Congressman Cummings.
Representative Cummings. Thank you, Madam Chair.

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One of the features often cited about this Recession has been the
fall in consumer spending, which is itself linked to consumer confidence. How does the fall in overall consumer demand show up in
your data?
Commissioner Hall. I would say consumer spending is really
the driver behind GDP, and it is really the driver behind employment. During normal expansions, the growth in consumer spending
is roughly in line with the growth of GDP. So without a strong recovery in consumer spending, and hopefully with consumer confidence and then consumer spending, we just are not going to see
a strong recovery. So it is critical.
Representative Cummings. Now when we got the information
a few days ago that when we got the very good numbers on the
GDP
Commissioner Hall. Yes.
Representative Cummings [continuing]. I mean do you see a
correlation between those numbers and what you found in your report?
Commissioner Hall. Actually a lot of the GDP let me just say,
a lot of the GDP growth was from inventory. So the 5.7, while it
was a good number, a good portion of that was from inventory
buildup which actually may be an indication of future growth, but
it is not an indication of current demand. That current demand has
not fully recovered yet.
But outside of inventories, GDP did grow about 2.2 percent,
which is reasonable growth. And that is consistent, if that continues to grow at 2.2 percent or more that is consistent with payroll job growth.
Representative Cummings. Now we saw with FordI am
going to go into cars nowwe saw with Ford that they had a significant rise in cars sold. We also saw that with GM. And one of
the things that we were concerned about was that after the Cash
for Clunkers sales were over that there might be just a slight
bump-up in manufacturing of automobiles, but a lot of us were concerned that that would not last very long.
Can you tell from your research how we are. Do we see a trend
there? In other words, are people, generally it seems like they are
buying cars and decided that, you know what, although I may not
have bought one during the Cash for Clunkers I am going to get
a car I feel a little bit better about my situation. I mean, what are
you finding there?
Commissioner Hall. Well, actually, this month motor vehicles
and parts, the jobs grew by about 23,000, which actually accounted
for all, more than all of the manufacturing job growth.
Representative Cummings. So that is very significant, isnt it?
Commissioner Hall. It is only one month, but that was a nice
bump-up in employment.
Representative Cummings. Well let me ask you as just sort of
a general question. The month of January from year to year has
certain unique characteristics. For example, it is coming after the
Christmas season. It is the first month of the year. And maybe people are getting off to new starts with certain types of things. Do
you find, when you look at those numbers, now going back to cars,
when you look at those numbers is that surprising to you at all,

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considering what we have seen in the past for January? And I
know we are in a recession; I understand that.
Commissioner Hall. That gain in 23,000 jobs is in fact taking
into account the normal seasonal patterns in motor vehicles. So
when we say 23,000, we mean relative to what we expect normally
for January of this year. So I would say the answer is, yes.
Representative Cummings. So in other words, if we were not
in a Recession you would expect 23,000 new jobs? Is that what you
are saying?
Commissioner Hall. No. Well, I think to be honest the expectation I am not sure what the expectation was for motor vehicles particularly, but the way we calculate these numbers is we have
23,000 more jobs than we would have normally expected.
Representative Cummings. I see. I see. So you are saying the
opposite of what I just said.
Commissioner Hall. Yes.
Representative Cummings. So we should feel I take it, then,
and I know you are limited to your opinions and everything but I
am sure that makes you, if somebody were to ask you outside of
your position, and said how do you feel about that, Hall? I guess
you would say you felt pretty good, huh?
Commissioner Hall. Yes. Although I would caution, as I did,
that it is only one month.
Representative Cummings. Right.
Commissioner Hall. But it was growth in jobs in motor vehicles
and parts.
Representative Cummings. Thank you, Madam Chair.
Chair Maloney. Thank you.
Commissioner Hall, temporary help is often an indicator of an
employers willingness to hire more employees. Could you comment
on the Temporary Help numbers and any trends you see over the
past several months?
Commissioner Hall. Sure. The Temporary Help industry has
been and continues to be a leading indicator. For example, before
we went into the Recession, Temporary Help Services job growth
started to decline nine or ten months ahead of the Recession. So
it actually did signal, early on, that we were coming into an economic slowdown.
And in past recessions, a pickup in Temporary Help Services has
preceded a pickup in payroll job growth. So the fact that Temporary Help Services added 52,000 jobs this month, and a quarter
million over the past four months or so, I would consider to be an
indicator of potential payroll job growth in the future.
Chair Maloney. Could you comment on how women have fared
in this recession? You testified earlier that women employees are
up from 48.8 to 49.9 percent. Could you comment on this trend? Do
you see that more women may be employed in this Recession than
men? In what industries are they employed? In what industries are
they losing or gaining jobs?
Commissioner Hall. Yes. Men have lost jobs relative to women
something like 2 to 3 to 1. And you are right, women now make
up about 49.9 percent of the payroll jobs in the economy. And it
is possible. We are within probably 350,000, give or take the number of women employed are within 350,000 of the number of men

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15
employed right now. So actually it still is potentially possible that
the number of women in the payroll jobs could exceed the number
of men in payroll jobs at some point.
But women have also participated in the job loss, though, in this
Recession. That is not to say that they have not lost jobs. Women
have lost literally 2.6 million jobs out of the 8.4 million during this
Recession so far. They have lost particularly notable in say Professional and Business Services. Actually, Education and Health Services, and Financial Activities forget the Education and Health, Im
sorry Financial Activities. In fact, more women have lost jobs in
the Financial Activities than men have, which is kind of interesting.
Chair Maloney. Well thank you for tracking that information.
I would like to ask a few questions about my home state of New
York. In New York City, unemployment rose to 10.6 percent in December. This is a jump of 3.6 points from last December. Is this in
tune with other states, and the overall national average? Are these
changes similar to the changes taking place on national unemployment?
Commissioner Hall. I know historically the State of New York
has had a very similar pattern during a recession as the United
States as a whole, I think because its a very diverse economy. And
I think that is roughly what we have seen during this Recession
with New York. The numbers have been fairly similar to the overall numbers for the United States.
Chair Maloney. What about Manhattan, which is very dependent on Financial Service jobs? Given the economy, has it had a particularly hard blow? Or is it in tune with the national average?
Commissioner Hall. I dont have Manhattan with me. I can tell
you about New York state. New York has lost about 50,000 jobs in
Financial Activities since the start of the Recession, so New York
has been particularly hit by the Financial Activities downturn.
Chair Maloney. My time has expired. Congressman Cummings.
Representative Cummings. Yesterday a New York Times reporter had asked me, Mr. Hall, about the whole idea of African
American unemployment being there being such a gap between
overall unemployment and African American unemployment, and
whether special things ought to be done.
I am not going to ask you your opinion on that, I just want to
know, it appears that there is an increase in the gap between overall unemployment and African American unemployment. Is that accurate?
Commissioner Hall. That is. And it has grown during the Recession, and unfortunately it actually grows during every Recession.
Representative Cummings. Is that right?
Commissioner Hall. Yes.
Representative Cummings. And do we have an explanation for
that?
Commissioner Hall. I dont. I dont. Theres probably some research on that, but Im not familiar with it.
Representative Cummings. Now what changes in the makeup
of the labor force can you identify in terms of gender, race, or age?
And tell me who is entering the labor force, and who is leaving,

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and what is the significance of those changes? Can you answer
those questions? Changes in the makeup of the labor force. In other
words, we have people who are leaving the labor force, and there
are people who are entering.
For example, you have got, I assume, while all the reports are
saying that more and more people are staying in school because
many of them feel they cant find jobs, so Im just wondering do we
have any stats on who is entering, and at what rate, and who is
leaving? Are you following me?
Mr. Rones, how are you?
Mr. Rones. Okay. Fine, thank you. The first thing I would say,
the most important trend in terms of the labor force is that older
workers are actually older workers labor force participation has
been going up, and actually started going up well before the Recession and has continued to go up. And that is at the same time that
labor force participation has gone down for pretty much every other
group.
Now a lot of that is, again, part of a long-term trend. Part of it
is also because of course a lot of people lost much of their assets
through the stock market fall, as well as the housing market fall.
So there are some structural things going on there, as well as some
things related to the downturn.
We have not seen, as you discussed before, we have not seen a
lot of people coming back into the labor force, which you might see
as people start getting more confident. At some point you would expect to see that, as it goes hand in hand with job creation. As the
jobs show up, people hear that someone is hiring. They start looking for work, and the labor force grows. But we are not really there
yet.
Representative Cummings. Now based on what you have observed, Commissioner, in earlier iterations of the Decennial Census, do you anticipate any net job creation effect in government hiring attributable to the Census?
Commissioner Hall. Absolutely we should. In fact, this month
we added about 10,000 Federal Government jobs from the Census.
And in coming months, I think their total hiring yes, we should get
at least about a half a million added to the government jobs when
the Census fully hires up.
Representative Cummings. About a half a million?
Commissioner Hall. Yes. And that actually might have a measurable effect on the unemployment rate. It might go down a little
bit.
Representative Cummings. So is that a usual trend, Mr. Hall?
That is, that there is some slight impact on the unemployment rate
because of the Census? That is not unusual, is what youre saying?
Commissioner Hall. No, that is normal.
Representative Cummings. Now do we see any geographic
changes with regard to job losses? In other words, are there certain
parts of the Nation that seem to be suffering more job losses disproportionately than others?
Commissioner Hall. You know, the job losses have been very
spread out, but it certainly is true that certain states had higher
unemployment rates and they had higher increases in unemploy-

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ment. It is a little hard to talk about because it is not so much regional as it is with specific states.
Representative Cummings. I see. All right. Thank you very
much.
Chair Maloney. Many of my colleagues have left because Washington is getting ready for a huge snow storm. We are very grateful, Commissioner Hall, that you have weathered this storm to be
here today and give us the Jobs Report.
Weather aside, it appears that we are trending in the right direction. We no longer are facing an avalanche of job losses. We thank
you for your hard work and for being here today.
This meeting is adjourned.
[Whereupon, at 10:26 a.m., Friday, January 5, 2010, the hearing
was adjourned.]

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SUBMISSIONS FOR THE RECORD

(19)

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PREPARED STATEMENT

OF

REPRESENTATIVE CAROLYN MALONEY, CHAIR, JOINT

ECONOMIC COMMITTEE

Todays report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics provides further evidence that
the labor market has stabilized and we have turned a corner. The economy is no
longer hemorrhaging jobs. In fact, the unemployment rate dropped to 9.7 percent,
and employment was virtually unchanged, dropping by 20,000 jobs.
Just over one year ago, the current Administration took office, taking helm of a
country suffering the worst crisis since the Great Depression. In fact, Council of
Economic Advisers Chair Christina Romer testified to the Joint Economic Committee that the shocks we endured in this Great Recession were actually worse
than those of the Great Depression.
During the last three months of the Bush administration, we lost an average of
727,000 jobs per month. In contrast, during the most recent 3 months of the Obama
administration, we lost an average of 35,000 jobs each month. The trend is heading
in the right direction.
But, there is no escaping the cruel math of recoveries. The recovery of the job
market lags behind the recovery of the broader economy. Businesses must have
more customers before they add employees.
However, thanks to the Recovery Act, which became law a year ago February 17,
the economy is growing. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported last week that
in the final quarter of 2009, the economy expanded at a rate of 5.7 percent.
Average weekly hours are climbing, with indications that the manufacturing sector is driving that upward trend. Since June, the manufacturing workweek is up
1.2 hours. And, job creation in the temporary help sector is a leading indicator of
progress in the labor market. Since September, temporary help services has added
247,000 jobs52,000 in January alone.
Although the labor market appears to be stabilizing, too many Americans remain
out of work. More than 15 million workers are unemployed. The overall unemployment rate masks how hard some groups have been hitwhile the overall unemployment rate is 9.7 percent, the unemployment rate is 16.5 percent and 12.6 percent,
for African Americans and Hispanics, respectively.
Todays jobs report makes it clearwe are making progress, but the road to recovery will be long, and it will not be easy. While we have brought the economy back
from the brink, we are not yet where we need to be in terms of job creation. The
mission is to create high-quality private-sector jobs.
In the last year, Congress has enacted policies that support struggling families
and encourage job creation. The $700 billion Recovery Act included a tax cut for 95
percent of American families and created jobs while investing in clean energy technologies, infrastructure, and education.
Last year, we extended the $8,000 first-time homebuyers credit that will spur construction jobs. We extended a host of safety net programs that will help struggling
families weather the economic storm. We extended the net operating loss carry-back
provision that will help small businesses hire new employees. And we are boosting
funding for small business loans via the Small Business Administration.
In order to bring creative ideas on job creation to Congress, I started the year
reaching out to CEOs of Fortune 100 companies and leaders of small businesses.
I asked these employers to share new ideas on ways to create jobs.
In order to jump-start job growth, I am introducing an employer tax credit (cosponsored in the Senate by my JEC colleague Senator Casey and my fellow New
Yorker, Senator Gillibrand). This idea was suggested by several of the respondents
to our survey.
On Tuesday, February 9, the Joint Economic Committee will hold a hearing to
discuss job creation ideas from some of Americas best economists and business leaders.
The hearing will include testimony from CBO Director Doug Elmendorf. A recent
CBO study showed that an employer tax credit similar to the one in my bill is one
of the most effective and efficient ways of spurring hiring. I look forward to hearing
from all our witnesses at the Tuesdays hearing and look forward to the different
perspectives they will bringespecially their views on lessons learned about creating jobs in previous recessions and economic expansions.
I encourage you all to attend next Tuesdays hearing.
PREPARED STATEMENT

OF

REPRESENTATIVE KEVIN BRADY, SENIOR HOUSE

REPUBLICAN

I am pleased once again to join in welcoming Dr. Hall before the Committee this
morning.

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Todays employment report is still bad news for American workers. Payroll employment fell by 20,000. Although the unemployment rate fell to 9.7 percent, largely
due to more workers reporting part-time jobs, the number of long-term unemployed
workers reached an all-time high of 6.3 million. And today we learned that job
losses were 902,000 higher during 2009 than previously estimated.
Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real GDP grew at an
annualized rate of 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009. While this is an improvement over the 2.2 percent rate in the third quarter, more than 57 percent of
real GDP growth in the fourth quarter was due to a one-off restocking of inventory.
The fourth quarter spike reveals how deeply businesses emptied their shelves last
year but gives no indication they are confident in bringing workers back or hiring
new ones. Real final sales, which are a better measure of the underlying trend in
real GDP than the headline number, rose by only 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter
of 2009.
The Blue Chip consensus forecast of private economists is that real GDP will grow
by 2.8 percent in 2010. Unfortunately, such modest growth cannot support vigorous
job creation and a rapid reduction of the unemployment rate. Indeed, the most recent Blue Chip consensus forecast is that the unemployment rate will average 9.8
percent in the fourth quarter of 2010.
Normally, economists would expect two years of rapid economic growth following
a severe recession. Unfortunately for American workers and their families, the current economic recovery is fighting the headwinds of excessive government spending
and debt, the prospect of higher income taxes in the near future, and uncertainty
over the future of health care and cap and trade legislation.
Lets compare the recovery after the recession that began in December 2007 with
the recovery after the August 1981 to November 1982 recession, which is similar
in depth and length to the recent recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research has not yet determined the official bottom for the recent recession. However,
industrial production hit its bottom in June 2009, and real GDP began to grow in
July 2009. So, until the National Bureau of Economic Research makes its official
determination, lets assume that the bottom of the recent recession occurred in June
2009.
Comparing the Reagan and Obama recoveries so far, we find:
The average annualized rate of real GDP growth was 7.2 percent in the first
two full quarters of the Reagan recovery compared with 4.0 percent in the first
two full quarters of the Obama recovery.
During the first seven months of the Reagan recovery, payroll employment had
increased by 1.2 million jobs, while during the first seven months of the Obama
recovery payroll employment fell by 1.1 million jobs.
Looking ahead, the contrast between the Reagan and Obama recoveries becomes
increasingly stark. Fifteen months into the Reagan recovery, payroll employment
had increased by 4.4 million jobs, and the unemployment rate had fallen by a full
3.0 percentage points to 7.8 percent. By October 2010, at the same point in the
Obama recovery, the unemployment rate is forecast to be 9.8 percent, a full 2 percentage points higher.
If we want American workers and their families to enjoy robust job growth, Washington needs to put aside partisan blinders and re-examine what economic policies
have worked in the past to increase confidence and foster job-creating investment
and what policies have not. I encourage President Obama to study the successful
economic policies of John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan, and, for the sake of our
country, to make a mid-course correction in this Administrations economic policies.
Despite significant tax increases, President Obamas FY 2011 budget will entrench
federal spending at a new plateau of more than 23 percent of GDP and more than
double the publicly held federal debt over the next ten years. This budget is a jobkiller.
Finally, I would like to observe that the Census Bureau will hire between 700,000
and 800,000 temporary, mainly part-time, workers during the first five months of
2010 to take the decennial census. The hiring of these temporary Census workers
will inflate the monthly change in payroll jobs above its underlying trend through
May. Then, the dismissal of these temporary Census workers during the following
five months will pull the monthly change in payroll jobs below its underlying trend
from June through October. Because this is a Census year, we will need to examine
the payroll jobs data, without this distortion to understand the employment situation during 2010.
Dr. Hall, I look forward to hearing your testimony.

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22
PREPARED STATEMENT

OF

DR. KEITH HALL, COMMISSIONER, BUREAU

STATISTICS

OF

LABOR

Madam Chair and Members of the Committee:

Thank you for the opportunity to discuss the employment and unemployment data
we released this morning.
The unemployment rate declined from 10.0 to 9.7 percent in January. Nonfarm
payroll employment was essentially unchanged (20,000) and on net has shown little movement over the last 3 months. In January, job losses continued in construction and in transportation and warehousing, while employment increased in temporary help services and retail trade. With revisions released today, job losses since
the start of the recession in December 2007 totaled 8.4 million, substantially more
than previously reported.
Construction employment fell by 75,000 in January, about in line with the average monthly job loss in 2009. Nonresidential specialty trade contracting accounted
for much of the over-the-month decline. The nonresidential components of construction have accounted for the majority of the industrys job loss since early 2009. Employment in transportation and warehousing decreased by 19,000 in January; the
entire decline occurred in courier and messenger services, which laid off more workers than usual over the month.
Employment in temporary help services grew by 52,000 over the month. This industry, which provides workers to other businesses, has added nearly a quarter of
a million jobs since its recent low point last September. Following 2 months of little
change, retail trade employment increased by 42,000 in January, with gains in several components. Health care employment continued to rise in January. Overall,
manufacturing employment was little changed, although motor vehicles and parts
added 23,000 jobs. Since June, the manufacturing workweek for all employees has
increased by 1.2 hours.
Federal government employment rose in January, partly due to hiring for the decennial census. Employment in state and local governments, excluding education,
continued to trend down over the month.
Average hourly earnings of all employees in the private sector rose by 4 cents in
January to $22.45. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen
by 2.0 percent. From December 2008 to December 2009, the Consumer Price Index
for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 2.8 percent.
Turning now to some measures from our household survey, both the number of
unemployed persons (14.8 million) and the unemployment rate (9.7 percent) declined
in January. However, the share of those jobless for 27 weeks and over continued
to rise.
The employment-population ratio increased to 58.4 percent over the month. The
number of persons working part time who would have preferred full-time employment dropped from 9.2 to 8.3 million, the lowest level in a year.
Before closing, I would note that several changes were introduced today to the
Employment Situation news release text and tables. Three new household survey
tables provide information on the employment status of veterans, persons with a
disability, and the foreign-born population. In January, the unemployment rate of
veterans from Gulf War era II (September 2001 to the present) was 12.6 percent,
compared with 10.4 percent for nonveterans. Persons with a disability had a higher
jobless rate than persons with no disability15.2 versus 10.4 percent. In addition,
21.8 percent of persons with a disability were in the labor force, compared with 70.1
percent of persons without a disability. The unemployment rate for the foreign born
was 11.8 percent, and the rate for the native born was 10.3 percent. (The data in
these new tables are not seasonally adjusted.)
The establishment survey tables have been redesigned to include the addition of
data on hours and earnings for all private-sector employees as well as employment
information for women. Women currently make up 49.9 percent of total nonfarm
payroll employment, compared with 48.8 percent when the recession began in December 2007. Additional information about the new and redesigned tables is available on the BLS Web site.
I would also note that there were annual adjustments to data from our two surveys. The establishment survey data released today reflect the incorporation of annual benchmark revisions. Each year, we re-anchor our sample-based survey estimates to full universe counts of employment, primarily derived from administrative
records of the unemployment insurance tax system. Accounting for revisions during
the benchmark and post-benchmark periods, the previously published level of total
nonfarm employment for December 2009 was revised downward by 1,363,000.
Household survey data for January reflect updated population estimates from the

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23
U.S. Census Bureau. Further information about the impact of these adjustments is
contained in our news release and on our Web site.
Returning now to the labor market data we released this morning, the jobless rate
declined to 9.7 percent in January, and payroll employment was essentially unchanged.
My colleagues and I now would be glad to answer your questions.

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