Escolar Documentos
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Part 1: Introduction
Raj Chetty and Gregory A. Bruich
Harvard University
Fall 2012
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Practical Relevance
Academic Interest
Methodology
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Motivation 3: Methodology
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15
Earnings ($1000)
5
10
=0.5 (0.12)
()
10
Years of Schooling
Part 1: Introduction
15
20
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15
Earnings ($1000)
5
10
=0.5 (0.12)
()
10
Years of Schooling
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15
20
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15
Earnings ($1000)
5
10
=0.5 (0.12)
()
10
Years of Schooling
Part 1: Introduction
15
20
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15
Earnings ($1000)
5
10
=0.5 (0.12)
()
10
Years of Schooling
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15
20
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()
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80
60
40
20
1980
1990
AER
Year
JPE
2000
QJE
2010
ECMA
Note: Pre-existing surveydatasets refer to micro surveys such as the CPS or SIPP and do not
include surveys designed by researchers for their study. Sample excludes studies whose primary
data source is from developing countries.
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80
60
40
20
1980
1990
AER
Year
JPE
2000
QJE
2010
ECMA
Note: Administrativedatasets refer to any dataset that was collected without directly surveying
individuals (e.g., scanner data, stock prices, school district records, social security records).
Sample excludes studies whose primary data source is from developing countries.
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Earnings at Age 28
$21,000
$20,800
1 SD TVA = $182
(73)
$20,600
$20,400
-0.2
-0.1
Teacher Value-Added
0.1
0.2
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Very large sample sizes: 2,000 times the size of the CPS
Can develop new research designs
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Earned Income Tax Credit Schedule for Single Earners with One Child in 2008
4k
3k
2k
1k
0k
$0k
$5k
$10k
$15k
$20k
$25k
$30k
$35k
Family Earnings
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4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
$0
$10K
$20K
$30K
$40K
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Part 1: Introduction
Two children
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Fraction of Tax Filers Who Report Income that Maximizes EITC Refund
in 1996
4.1 42.7%
2.8 4.1%
2.1 2.8%
1.8 2.1%
1.5 1.8%
1.2 1.5%
1.1 1.2%
0.9 1.1%
0.7 0.9%
0 0.7%
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Fraction of Tax Filers Who Report Income that Maximizes EITC Refund
in 1999
4.1 42.7%
2.8 4.1%
2.1 2.8%
1.8 2.1%
1.5 1.8%
1.2 1.5%
1.1 1.2%
0.9 1.1%
0.7 0.9%
0 0.7%
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Fraction of Tax Filers Who Report Income that Maximizes EITC Refund
in 2002
4.1 42.7%
2.8 4.1%
2.1 2.8%
1.8 2.1%
1.5 1.8%
1.2 1.5%
1.1 1.2%
0.9 1.1%
0.7 0.9%
0 0.7%
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Fraction of Tax Filers Who Report Income that Maximizes EITC Refund
in 2005
4.1 42.7%
2.8 4.1%
2.1 2.8%
1.8 2.1%
1.5 1.8%
1.2 1.5%
1.1 1.2%
0.9 1.1%
0.7 0.9%
0 0.7%
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Fraction of Tax Filers Who Report Income that Maximizes EITC Refund
in 2008
4.1 42.7%
2.8 4.1%
2.1 2.8%
1.8 2.1%
1.5 1.8%
1.2 1.5%
1.1 1.2%
0.9 1.1%
0.7 0.9%
0 0.7%
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Correlation Between Response to EITC and EITC Filer Density by ZIP Code
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
R2 = 0.6
1.0%
-2
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40
30
20
10
0
50
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
Revenue
Expenditure
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60
40
Canada
OECD Avg.
30
Percent of GDP
50
Sweden
20
United States
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year
Source: OECD Economic Outlook (2009)
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Other
4.2%
Other 4.2%
Excise
2.7%
Excise
12.6%
Income
44%
Payroll
15.9%
Corporate
23.2%
Income
45.4%
Payroll
37.5%
Corporate
12.1%
2008
1960
Source: Office of Management and Budget, historical tables, government receipts by source
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Property
Tax
38.2%
Other
17.7%
Sales Tax
28.8%
Sales Tax
17.9%
Other
33%
1960
2007
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 Summary of State & Local Government
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Other
12.4%
Social
Security
13.5%
Social
Security
19.5%
Health
23.1%
Health, 2.9%
UI and Net Interest
8.3%
Disability
8.9%
Net
Interest
12.3%
UI and Disability, 6.3%
1960
2001
Source: Office of Management and Budget, historical tables, government outlays by function
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Mexico
Norway
Payroll
24.3%
Consumption
73.5%
Consumption
31.3%
Wealth,
2.2%
Wealth, 2.2%
Payroll
20.5%
OECD Average
Consumption
32.6%
Individual
Income
24.2%
Corporate
Income 21.7%
Wealth, 5.5%
Payroll
26.7%
Individual
Income
26%
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How can govt. improve e ciency when private market is ine cient?
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Bob
s Consumption
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Bob
s Consumption
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Bob
s Consumption
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No externalities
Perfect information
Perfect competition
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Failure 1: Externalities
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When markets are not competitive, there is role for govt. regulation
Ex: natural monopolies such as electricity and telephones
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Individual Failures
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Redistributional Concerns
Even when the private market outcome is e cient, may not have
good distributional properties
E cient markets generally seem to deliver very large rewards to small
set of people (top incomes)
Government can redistribute income through tax and transfer system
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Bob
s Consumption
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Course Outline
Optimal Taxation
Corporate Taxation
Social Insurance
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Harvard University
Fall 2012
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Outline
1
Capitalization
Mandated Benets
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()
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Denition
Tax incidence is the study of the eects of tax policies on prices and
the distribution of utilities
What happens to market prices when a tax is introduced or changed?
Increase tax on cigarettes by $1 per pack
Introduction of Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC)
Food stamps program
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Overview
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Overview
Ideally, we would characterize the eect of a tax change on utility
levels of all agents in the economy
Useful simplication in practice: aggregate economic agents into a
few groups
Incidence analyzed at a number of levels:
1
2
3
4
5
()
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()
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()
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D q
q D (q )
log D
log q
()
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c (S )
S p
p S (p )
()
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Equilibrium condition
Q = S (p ) = D (p + t )
denes an equation p (t )
Goal: characterize
dp
dt ,
()
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$27.0
Consumer
Burden = $4.50
Supplier
Burden = $3.00
A
$22.5
D
$19.5
B
$15.0
$7.50
D+t
1250
()
1500
D
Quantity
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B
$30.0
C
$27.0
Consumer
Burden = $4.50
Supplier
Burden = $3.00
A
$22.5
D
$19.5
D
1250
()
1500
Quantity
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Price
S+t
$27.0
Consumer
burden
$22.5
$7.50
1500
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Quantity
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Price
S+t
$7.50
$22.5
Supplier
burden
$15.0
1500
()
Quantity
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D
p )
dp
D
=
dt
S D
Incidence on consumers:
dq
dp
S
= 1+
=
dt
dt
S D
()
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P1
P2
1 excess supply of E
created by imposition of tax
dp = E/ /S
?
/p
dp/dt =
/D
/p
/S
/p
/D
/p
/D
/p
2 re-equilibriation of market
through producer price cut
D1
D2
Q
E = dt
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/D
/p
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()
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x ,p
log x
log(1 + )
()
log x
log x
x ,1 +
/
=
log(1 + ) log p
x ,p
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log x (p, )
()
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TABLE 1
Evaluation of Tags: Classroom Survey
Mean
Median
SD
0.18
0.00
0.39
0.75
1.00
0.43
()
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Control groups:
Products: Other prods. in same aisle (toothpaste, skin care, shave)
Stores: Two nearby stores similar in demographic characteristics
Time period: Calendar year 2005 and rst 6 weeks of 2006
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TREATMENT STORE
Control Categories
Treated Categories
Difference
Baseline
26.48
(0.22)
25.17
(0.37)
-1.31
(0.43)
Experiment
27.32
(0.87)
23.87
(1.02)
-3.45
(0.64)
Difference
over time
0.84
(0.75)
-1.30
(0.92)
DDTS = -2.14
(0.64)
()
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TREATMENT STORE
Control Categories
Treated Categories
Difference
Baseline
26.48
(0.22)
25.17
(0.37)
-1.31
(0.43)
Experiment
27.32
(0.87)
23.87
(1.02)
-3.45
(0.64)
Difference
over time
0.84
(0.75)
-1.30
(0.92)
DDTS = -2.14
(0.64)
Period
CONTROL STORES
Control Categories
Treated Categories
Difference
Baseline
30.57
(0.24)
27.94
(0.30)
-2.63
(0.32)
Experiment
30.76
(0.72)
28.19
(1.06)
-2.57
(1.09)
Difference
over time
0.19
(0.64)
0.25
(0.92)
DDCS = 0.06
(0.90)
()
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TREATMENT STORE
Control Categories
Treated Categories
Difference
Baseline
26.48
(0.22)
25.17
(0.37)
-1.31
(0.43)
Experiment
27.32
(0.87)
23.87
(1.02)
-3.45
(0.64)
Difference
over time
0.84
(0.75)
-1.30
(0.92)
DDTS = -2.14
(0.64)
Period
CONTROL STORES
Control Categories
Treated Categories
Difference
Baseline
30.57
(0.24)
27.94
(0.30)
-2.63
(0.32)
Experiment
30.76
(0.72)
28.19
(1.06)
-2.57
(1.09)
Difference
over time
0.19
(0.64)
0.25
(0.92)
DDCS = 0.06
(0.90)
DDD Estimate
-2.20
(0.58)
()
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()
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()
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()
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()
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()
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.1
.05
0
-.05
-.1
-.02
-.015
-.01
-.005
.005
.01
.015
.02
()
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.1
.05
0
-.05
-.1
-.02
-.015
-.01
-.005
.005
.01
.015
.02
()
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-0.87
(0.17)***
Bus Cyc,
Alc Regs.
(2)
-0.89
(0.17)***
(4)
-0.91
(0.22)***
-0.20
-0.02
-0.00
-0.14
(0.30)
(0.30)
(0.32)
(0.30)
0.05
0.01
0.05
0.04
Sample Size
1,607
1,487
1,389
937
()
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(p + t )x (p, t, Z ) + y (p, t, Z ) = Z
Demand functions taken as empirically estimated objects rather than
optimized demand from utility maximization
Supply side model same as above
Market clearing price p satises
D (p, t, Z ) = S (p )
where D (p, t, z ) = x (p, t, z ) is market demand for x.
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Dp|t S = 0
Dp|t S
p0
p1
S ( p)
dp = E/
dp/dt =
S
/D
/t S
/S
/p
?
/S
/p
/D
/p
/D
/p
1 excess supply of E
created by imposition of tax
2 re-equilibriation of market
through pre-tax price cut
E = tS /D//t S
S,D
()
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D
S
Intuition: Producers need to cut pretax price less when consumers are
less responsive to tax
()
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But that same unobserved factor could also aect outcome: no way to
know if cov ( i , i ) = 0
Cannot be sure that estimate of treatment eect is consistent
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PA0 ]
()
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Dierence-in-Dierence
But what if price uctuates because of climatic conditions or trends in
demand?
PA0 ]
[ PB 1
PB 0 ]
()
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()
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Triple Dierence
Some studies use a triple dierence (DDD)
Chetty, Looney, Kroft (2009): experiment using treatment/control
products, treatment/control stores
DDD = DDTS
DDCS
()
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Fixed Eects
ERS have data for 50 states, 30 years, and many tax changes
Want to pool all this data to obtain single incidence estimate
Fixed eects generalize DD with S > 2 periods and J > 2 groups
Suppose that group j in year t experiences policy T of intensity Tjt
Want to identify eect of T on price P. OLS regression:
Pjt = + Tjt + ejt
With no xed eects, the estimate of is biased if treatment Tjt is
correlated with ejt
Ex: states with higher taxes may have more anti-tobacco campaigns
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Fixed Eects
Include time and state dummies to solve this problem:
Pjt = + t + j + Tjt + ejt
Fixed eect regression is equivalent to partial regression
P jt = T jt + ejt
where P jt = Pjt
Pj
()
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()
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0.42
D =
P Q
= /P
Q T
()
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()
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DD before and after one year captures short term response: eect of
current price Pjt on current consumption Qjt
F.E. also captures short term responses
What if full response takes more than one period? Especially
important considering nature of cigarette use
F.E. estimate biased. One solution: include lags (Tj ,t 1 , Tj ,t 2 , ...).
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()
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Question: How does food stamps subsidy aect grocery store pricing?
Food stamps typically arrive at the same time for a large group of
people, e.g. rst of the month
Use this variation to study:
1
()
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Rothstein 2010
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Rothstein: Model
Rothstein considers a model of the labor market with three types of
agents
1
2
3
Employers
EITC-eligible workers
EITC-ineligible workers
()
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()
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()
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()
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()
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DFL Reweighting
Generalizes propensity score reweighting
Used to examine changes in distributions semi-parametrically,
conditioning on observables
Example: suppose wages are a function purely of height
When EITC is expanded, average observed height of workers falls
because less-skilled (shorter) people enter the labor force
We want to identify how wage distribution changes for people of
given height
Solution: hold xed height semi-parametrically by reweighting the
distribution of wages ex-post to match heights ex-ante.
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DFL Reweighting
Example: 100 short, 100 tall pre-reform and 200 short, 100 tall
post-reform
Then put 2/3 weight on tall and 1/3 on short when calculating wage
distribution after reform
Compare reweighted post-reform distribution to pre-reform
distribution to assess eect of expansion on wages
Key assumption for causal interpretation of changes: selection on
observables
Here it is height; more generally, experience, age, demographics, etc.
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Rothstein: Results
()
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()
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Rothstein: Results
Ultimately uses quantity estimates and incidence formula to back out
predicted changes
Wage elasticity estimates: 0.7 for labor supply,
()
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Rothstein: Caveats
Short run vs. long run eects; important due to evidence of nominal
wage rigidities.
()
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()
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Dynamic
Characterize impacts over time or across generations
Asset price eects: capitalization
()
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()
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()
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d )p2 F2K
()
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()
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()
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d and dw > 0
Capital bears more than 100% of the burden if output eect su ciently
strong
Taxing capital in sector 2 raises prices of cars ! more demand for
bikes, less demand for cars
With very elastic demand (two goods are highly substitutable), demand
for labor rises sharply and demand for capital falls sharply
Capital loses more than direct tax eect and labor suppliers gain
()
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Bottom line: taxed factor may bear less than 0 or more than 100% of
tax.
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()
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()
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()
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()
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)F1K
()
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()
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()
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I =X
Motivates regression:
I /GDP = + S /GDP + ...
Find = 0.89 (0.07)
()
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In closed economy, = 1
But do not know what should be in an open economy
may be close to 1 in open economy if
1
()
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()
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()
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qt Xt wjt Ljt
Dt
=
1+r
1+r
Change in valuation of rm ( dV
dt ) reects change in present value of
prots
dV
dt
()
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()
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Friedman 2008
()
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Dene "event time" as calendar time minus date of treatment for each
treated obs.
Plot means/medians, etc. of outcome variable by event time
()
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()
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Friedman 2008
Test whether excess returns for high Medicare share drugs is higher
after Medicare Part D is passed
Let MMSi denote medicare market share drug class i. Second-stage
estimating equation:
Excessi = + MMSi + Post2003t + Post2003t MMSi
()
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()
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()
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Friedman: Results
()
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()
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()
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()
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()
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()
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()
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Mandated Benets
()
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Mandated Benets
()
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()
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Mandated Benefit
Wage
Rate
w1
D1
L1
()
Labor Supply
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Mandated Benefit
Wage
Rate
w1
B
$1
D2
L1
()
D1
Labor Supply
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Mandated Benefit
Wage
Rate
w1
B
C
w2
$1
D2
L1
()
D1
Labor Supply
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1 + (1
D0)
S
where
D = wD 0 /D < 0
S = wS 0 /S > 0
If = 1, dw /dt =
()
with usual
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()
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()
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w1
B
minimum wage
w2
D2
L1
()
D1
Labor Supply
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Acemoglu and Angrist estimate the impact of act using data from the
Current Population Survey
Examine employment and wages of disabled workers before and after
the ADA went into eect
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()
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Harvard University
Fall 2012
()
Part 3: E ciency
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Outline
1
Marshallian surplus
Harberger Approximation
Empirical Applications
()
Part 3: E ciency
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Denition
()
Part 3: E ciency
3 / 106
References
()
Part 3: E ciency
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To redistribute income
()
Part 3: E ciency
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Competitive production
()
Part 3: E ciency
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()
c (S )
Part 3: E ciency
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Model: Equilibrium
()
Part 3: E ciency
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$30.0
D
1500
()
Part 3: E ciency
Quantity
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B
$36.0
Excess Burden
$30.0
C
$t
D
1350
()
1500
Part 3: E ciency
Quantity
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()
Part 3: E ciency
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P1
D
Q1
()
Part 3: E ciency
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P2
P1
A
C
$t1
D
Q2
()
Part 3: E ciency
Q1
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S+t1
P3
P2
Change in EB
P1
A
$t2
C
D
D
Q3
()
Q2
Part 3: E ciency
Q1
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Comparative Statics
(a) Inelastic Demand
P
S+t
S+t
P2
B
P2
P1
P1
C
$t
$t
D
Q
Q 2 Q1
()
Part 3: E ciency
Q2
Q1
15 / 106
With many goods, the most e cient way to raise tax revenue is:
1
Spread taxes across all goods to keep tax rates relatively low on all
goods (broad tax base)
()
Part 3: E ciency
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()
Part 3: E ciency
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EB
EB
EB
1
dQd
2
D
1 0
S (p )dpd = (1/2)(pS 0 /S )(S /p )
d 2
2
S D
d
1 S D
pQ ( )2
2 S D
p
D
D
)d
Tax revenue R = Qd
Useful expression is deadweight burden per dollar of tax revenue:
EB
=
R
Public Economics Lectures
()
1 S D d
2 S D p
Part 3: E ciency
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dQ p 0
d Q
+
p0
()
dQ
d d
d
dQ p Q
=
(1/2)
( )( )d d
d Q p
d
= (1/2) Q pQ ( )2
p
(1/2)
Part 3: E ciency
19 / 106
d
Consider EB from raising tax by given pre-existing tax :
EB ( ) =
EB ( ) =
=
=
(1/2)
dQ
[( + )2 2 ]
d
dQ
(1/2)
[2 + ( )2 ]
d
dQ
dQ
(1/2)
( )2
d
d
(1/2)
()
Part 3: E ciency
20 / 106
dQ
dEB
1 d 2 EB
+
( )2
d
2 d 2
()
Part 3: E ciency
21 / 106
dQ
d
dR
=Q
d
()
[Q +
dQ
]=
d
Part 3: E ciency
dQ
EB
=
d
22 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
23 / 106
S+
Lost cons.
surplus (2nd order)
E
B
Lost govt. revenue
(1st order)
C
D
Lost producer
surplus (2nd order)
D
Q2
()
Q1
Part 3: E ciency
24 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
25 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
26 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
27 / 106
Expenditure Function
Fix utility at U and prices at q
Find bundle that minimizes cost to reach U for q:
e (q, U ) = min q c s.t. u (c )
c
e (q 0 , u )
()
Part 3: E ciency
28 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
29 / 106
Compensating Variation
Measures utility at initial price level (u 0 )
Amount agent must be compensated in order to be indierent about
tax increase
CV = e (q 1 , u 0 )
e (q 0 , u 0 ) = e (q 1 , u 0 )
()
Part 3: E ciency
CV
30 / 106
Equivalent Variation
e (q 0 , u 1 ) = Z
e (q 0 , u 1 )
EV is amount extra that can be taken from agent to leave him with
same ex-post utility:
e (q 0 , u 1 ) + EV = e (q 1 , u 1 )
()
Part 3: E ciency
31 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
32 / 106
e (q 0 , u ) =
Z q1
q0
h (q, u )dq
If only one price is changing, this is the area under the Hicksian
demand curve for that good
Note that optimization implies that
h (q, v (q, Z )) = c (q, Z )
Public Economics Lectures
()
Part 3: E ciency
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h(V(p0,Z))
p1
p0
x(p1,Z)
Public Economics Lectures
()
Part 3: E ciency
x(p0,Z)
x
34 / 106
h(V(p0,Z))
p1
EV
p0
x(p1,Z)
Public Economics Lectures
()
Part 3: E ciency
x(p0,Z)
x
35 / 106
h(V(p0,Z))
p1
CV
p0
x(p1,Z)
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()
Part 3: E ciency
x(p0,Z)
x
36 / 106
Marshallian Surplus
h(V(p1,Z))
p
h(V(p0,Z))
p1
Marshallian Surplus
p0
x(p1,Z)
Public Economics Lectures
()
Part 3: E ciency
x(p0,Z)
x
37 / 106
But this is not true in general with multiple price changes because
Marshallian Surplus is ill-dened
()
Part 3: E ciency
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Excess Burden
(q 1
(q 1
()
q 0 )h (q 1 , u 1 ) [Mohring 1971]
q 0 )h (q 1 , u 0 ) [Diamond and McFadden 1974]
Part 3: E ciency
39 / 106
h(V(p1,Z))
~
h(V(p0,Z))
p1
EBEV
EBCV
p0
x(p1,Z)
~
()
xC(p1,V(p0,Z))
~
~
Part 3: E ciency
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h(V(p1,Z))
~
h(V(p0,Z))
p1
Marshallian
p0
x(p1,Z)
~
()
xC(p1,V(p0,Z))
~
~
Part 3: E ciency
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Excess Burden
()
Part 3: E ciency
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e (p, U )]
h1 (p + , U )
()
= EB ( + ) EB ( )
dEB
1
d 2 EB
'
+ ( )2
d
2
d 2
Part 3: E ciency
43 / 106
dEB
d
= h1 (p + , U )
dh1
d
h1 (p + , U )
dh1
d
d 2 h1
dh1
d
d 2
=
d 2 EB
d 2
) MEB =
dh1
d
1 dh1
( )2
2 d
()
Part 3: E ciency
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Harberger Formula
Without pre-existing tax, obtain standard Harberger formula:
EB =
1 dh1
( )2
2 d
Hicksian Slope
()
ci
qj
|{z}
Marshallian Slope
Part 3: E ciency
ci
cj
Z
| {z }
Income Eect
45 / 106
i k
2 k d k i 6 =k
d k
Second-order eect in own market, rst-order eect from other
markets with pre-existing taxes
Complementarity between goods important for excess burden
calculations
Ex: with an income tax, minimize total DWL tax by taxing goods
complementary to leisure (Corlett and Hague 1953)
Public Economics Lectures
()
Part 3: E ciency
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dhk
d k
i 6 =k
dhi
d k
()
Part 3: E ciency
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No income eects
Ignore interactions with commodities other than labor (other taxes are
small)
()
Part 3: E ciency
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(1 + t ) pk ck = wl
k
()
Part 3: E ciency
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(1 + t ) pk ck = wl
k
()
Part 3: E ciency
50 / 106
dl
d k
A tax increase on this good has same eect as an increase in sales tax
t on all consumption goods scaled down by sk
Therefore cross-elasticity of l w.r.t. k is equivalent to L sk
Labor supply elasticity L su cient to calculate cross-elasticity for
good that has average level of substitutability
()
Part 3: E ciency
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()
Part 3: E ciency
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()
Part 3: E ciency
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()
Part 3: E ciency
54 / 106
1 ) + xN
Goal: measure
Public Economics Lectures
dW
dt
1) + Z
(p1 + t )x1
i =2
pi xi g + tx1
Part 3: E ciency
55 / 106
Primitives
Sufficient Stats.
1
2
.
.
.
K 1 t
K 2 t
=preferences,
constraints
= f(,t)
y = 1X1 + 2X2 +
not uniquely
identified
identified using
program evaluation
Welfare Change
dW
dt
()
Part 3: E ciency
56 / 106
( p 1 + t ) x1
i =2
pi xi g + tx1
dx1
dt
x1 + x1 + t
dx1
dx
=t 1
dt
dt
()
Part 3: E ciency
57 / 106
Heterogeneity
Benet of su stat approach particularly evident with heterogeneity
K agents, each with utility uk (x1 , ..., xN
1 ) + xN
W (t ) = fmax
x
1) + Z
k =1
(p1 + t )x1k
N 1
i =2
pi xik ]g +
tx1k
k =1
dW
=
dt
Public Economics Lectures
k =1
()
x1k +
x1k + t
k =1
Part 3: E ciency
k
d K
dx1
k =1 x1
=t
dt
dt
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Vk
(p + t )x1
max[Vk x1k + Z
Vk
x1k
tx1k dF (Vk )
()
Part 3: E ciency
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max
_
V
+t
Z
_
[ Vk
(p1 + t )] dF (Vk ) + Z
dF (Vk )
=
= t
F V
+ 1
dx1
dt
()
Part 3: E ciency
F V
+t
R _
V
dF (Vk )
dt
60 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
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()
Part 3: E ciency
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()
Part 3: E ciency
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TI =
wi li
i =1
()
t )TI + e
Part 3: E ciency
64 / 106
u (c, e, l ) = c
i (li )
g (e )
i =1
Social welfare:
N
W (t ) = f(1
t )TI + e
g (e )
i (li )g + tTI
i =1
TI + TI + t
dTI
dTI
=t
dt
dt
()
Part 3: E ciency
65 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
66 / 106
(l )
= y + (1
t )(wl
e) + e
W (t ) = fy + (1
t )(wl
e) + e
s.t. c
z (e )
z (e )
(l )g
+z (e ) + t (wl
e)
()
Part 3: E ciency
67 / 106
(wl
e ) + (wl
e) +
dz de
d [wl e ]
+t
de dt
dt
dTI
dz de
+
dt
de dt
dLI
de
dz de
= t
t
+
dt
dt
de dt
First-order condition for individuals choice of e:
dz
t =
de
dW
dLI
)
=t
dt
dt
Intuition: MPB of raising e by $1 (saving $t) equals MPC
= t
()
Part 3: E ciency
(1)
68 / 106
dLI
de
g 0 (e )
dt
dt
dTI
dLI
= t f
+ (1 )
g
dt
dt
t
fTI TI + (1 )wl LI g
=
1 t
= t
()
Part 3: E ciency
69 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
70 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
71 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
72 / 106
dTI
dt
()
Part 3: E ciency
73 / 106
Poterba 1992
Estimates e ciency cost of subsidy for housing in the U.S. from
mortgage interest deduction
First need to dene cost of owning $1 of housing
Denition: user cost measures opportunity cost of living in home
Could rent the house to someone else at percentage rate
r=
Rent
Property Value
With marginal income tax rate and nominal interest i, net user cost
taking into account mortgage deduction is
c=r
Public Economics Lectures
()
Part 3: E ciency
i
74 / 106
Poterba 1992
()
Part 3: E ciency
75 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
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Poterba 1992
Calculates compensated elasticity using estimates in literature and
Slutsky eqn.
Rosen (1982):
H ,r =
Income elasticity:
0.75
Housing share:
0.25
) Compensated elasticity:
1+
3
4
1
'
4
0.8
Intuition for large elasticity: broker calculates how much house you
can aord if they spend 30% of income
Can aord more with larger tax subsidy ! tax is eectively salient
()
Part 3: E ciency
77 / 106
Poterba: Results
Tax reforms in 1980s reduced DWL from $12K to $2K for each
household earning $250K
Still have relatively large ine ciency from subsidizing mortgages
This is why President Bushs Tax Panel recommended cap or
elimination of subsidy for homeownership
But hard to implement politically
()
Part 3: E ciency
78 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
79 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
80 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
81 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
82 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
83 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
84 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
85 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
86 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
87 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
88 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
89 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
90 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
91 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
92 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
93 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
94 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
95 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
96 / 106
(p + t S )x (p, t S , Z ) + y (p, t S , Z ) = Z
()
Part 3: E ciency
97 / 106
S
p
p
denote
S (p )
()
Part 3: E ciency
98 / 106
()
e (p, 0, V (p, t S , Z ))
Part 3: E ciency
R (p, t S , Z )
99 / 106
A2 When tax inclusive prices are fully salient, the agent chooses the same
allocation as a fully-optimizing agent:
x (p, 0, Z ) = x (p, 0, Z ) = arg max u (x ) + v (Z
x
px )
A1 species ancillary condition: tax rate and salience does not enter
utility directly
A2 is a renement: behavior when tax is salient reveals true
preferences
Public Economics Lectures
()
Part 3: E ciency
100 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
101 / 106
x
Excess Burden with No Income Eect for Good x ( Z
= 0)
p, t S
C
x( p,0) = u ' ( x)
xp 0 ,t S
p0 + t S G
E
F
tS
p0
EB p ? 12 t S 2
/x//t S
/x//p
H tS
x1*
x1
/x//tS
/x//p
/x//t S
A
/x
/t S
x0
()
Part 3: E ciency
102 / 106
EB (t S ) '
1 S 2 x /t S
(t )
x /t S
2
x /p
1 S 2
(t ) x (p, t S , Z ) D S
2
p+t
()
Part 3: E ciency
103 / 106
1 S 2 x c /t S c
(t )
x /t S
2
x c /p
c
1 c S 2
( t ) x (p, t S , Z ) D S
2
p+t
()
Part 3: E ciency
104 / 106
EB (t S ) '
1 S 2 x c /t S c
(t )
x /t S
2
x c /p
c
1 c S 2
( t ) x (p, t S , Z ) D S
2
p+t
With income eects (dx /dZ > 0), making a tax less salient can raise
deadweight loss.
Tax can generate EB > 0 even if dx /dt S = 0
()
Part 3: E ciency
105 / 106
()
Part 3: E ciency
106 / 106
Harvard University
Fall 2012
()
1 / 80
Outline
()
2 / 80
()
3 / 80
()
4 / 80
()
5 / 80
()
6 / 80
()
7 / 80
) qi
()
= 1
= 1 + i
8 / 80
wl + Z
()
9 / 80
(q1 x1 + .. + qN xN ))
()
10 / 80
x=
i xi (q, Z )
i =1
e (p, V (q, Z ))
()
11 / 80
LG = V (q, Z ) + [ i xi (q, Z )
E]
LG
=
qi
V
qi
|{z}
+ [
xi
|{z}
Mechanical
Eect
Priv. Welfare
Loss to Indiv.
V
=
Using Roys identity ( q
i
+ j xj /qi ] = 0
j
{z
Behavioral
Response
xi ):
)xi + j xj /qi = 0
j
()
12 / 80
j qi
j
xi
(
()
13 / 80
=
=
V
d i
qi
xi d i
()
14 / 80
xi xj /Z
xi xj /Z ] = 0
)
where =
1
xi
hi
j qj
j
(j j xj )
Z
()
15 / 80
( j xj )/Z
j
()
16 / 80
hi
j qj
Suppose revenue requirement E is small so that all taxes are also small
Then tax j on good j reduces consumption of good i (holding utility
constant) by approximately
dhi = j
hi
qj
()
17 / 80
1 + j cij =
j =1
()
18 / 80
()
19 / 80
where qt = (1 + t )pt
and 0
()
1
(1 + (1 )r )t
20 / 80
1+r
)t
1 + (1 )r
lim t =
= 1 + t = (
)
t !
()
21 / 80
()
22 / 80
()
23 / 80
T (z ) =
T (0) + z
[T (z )
T (0)] =
T (0) + z (1
p )
()
24 / 80
Disposable Earnings
$50,000
$40,000
$40,000
Welfare:
TANF+SNAP
$30,000
$30,000
Tax credits:
EITC+CTC
$20,000
$20,000
$10,000
$10,000
Earnings after
taxes
45 Degree Line
$48,443
$43,060
$37,678
$32,295
$26,913
$21,530
$16,148
$10,765
$5,383
$0
$0
$0
()
25 / 80
T (z ) where
u (z
T (z ))h (z )dz
()
T (z )h (z )dz
E (multiplier )
26 / 80
L = [u (z
T (z )) + T (z )]h (z )
0 = L/T (z ) = [ u 0 (z
T (z )) + ]h (z )
where z =
) u (z T (z )) =
) z T (z ) = c constant for all z
) c = z E
zh (z )dz average income
()
27 / 80
T (wl )
w (1
T 0 ) uc + ul = 0
()
28 / 80
()
29 / 80
()
30 / 80
0 T 0 (.)
1976]
1. T 0 (.)
Marginal tax rate T 0 (.) should be zero at the top if skill distribution
bounded [Sadka-Seade]
()
31 / 80
But until late 1990s, had little impact on practical tax policy
Recently, Mirrlees model connected to empirical literature
Diamond (1998), Piketty (1997), and Saez (2001)
Su cient statistic formulas in terms of labor supply elasticities instead
of primitives
()
32 / 80
()
33 / 80
) is inverse-U shaped:
= R ( ) = z dz /d (1
) MAX = 1/(1 + )
()
instead of ?
34 / 80
()
35 / 80
()
36 / 80
z ]d
Behavioral response:
= Ndz m =
dB
dz m
d
d (1 )
z m d
g dM
()
37 / 80
g )[z m
z ]
zm
g )(zm /z
zm /z
1)
()
38 / 80
()
39 / 80
High taxes reduce number of people in tail, but could leave thickness of
tail unchanged
Public Economics Lectures
()
40 / 80
) TOP =
1
1
a
a 1
zm
z
)a=2
g
g + 2
()
41 / 80
z ] ! 0 < dB = Nd
zm
()
42 / 80
) z m /z = = a/(a
Public Economics Lectures
()
1) ) a = 1 ) MAX = 1/(1 + )
43 / 80
()
44 / 80
()
45 / 80
H (z ))
dzd (1
H (z ))G (z )
T 0)
Optimum dM + dW + dB = 0
Public Economics Lectures
()
46 / 80
H (z )
zh (z )
[1
G (z )]
H (z )) [density]
H (z ))/(zh (z )) ! 1/a
(z ) ! ) T 0 (z ) = (1
Public Economics Lectures
()
g )/(1
g + a ) = TOP
47 / 80
()
48 / 80
= c (l )1 +
) l = [(1 T 0 )w ]
()
49 / 80
()
50 / 80
Numerical Simulations
Use formula expressed in terms of F (w ) to solve for optimal T (z ):
Z
T 0 (z (w ))
1
1
G 0 (u (s ))
=
1
+
1
f (s )ds,
1 T 0 (z (w ))
wf (w )
p
w
R
where p = G 0 (u (s ))f (s )ds is marginal value of public funds
Start with initial MTR schedule T00 and compute incomes z 0 (w ) using
individual FOCs
Get T 0 (0) using govt budget constraint, compute utilities u 0 (w )
R
Compute p0 = G 0 (u 0 (s ))f (s )ds
()
51 / 80
()
52 / 80
h (z )
t,T (.)
()
t =0,T (.)
53 / 80
u ( c2 )
1+
(z/w )
)r )
T (z )
()
54 / 80
If low ability people have higher then capital income tax tK > 0 is
desirable (Saez 2004)
Violates homogeneous utility assumption
Savings reveal information about type and relax IC constraint
()
55 / 80
()
56 / 80
()
57 / 80
()
58 / 80
()
59 / 80
()
60 / 80
Ti
c0 = wi (1
i )
()
c0 )/hi hi /(ci
c0 )
61 / 80
()
62 / 80
()
63 / 80
hi dci
c0 )
ei hi dTi (Ti
T0 ) / ( c i
c0 )
FOC: dM + dB + dW = 0 )
i
1
g1 > 1 ) T1
Public Economics Lectures
Ti
ci
T0
1
= (1
c0
ei
gi )
64 / 80
()
65 / 80
()
66 / 80
()
67 / 80
()
68 / 80
()
69 / 80
()
70 / 80
()
71 / 80
()
72 / 80
()
73 / 80
()
74 / 80
= 2S .5W
= S 1W
R has higher disutility from waiting and lower utility from soup
Social welfare
SWF = Up + Ur
Public Economics Lectures
()
75 / 80
With a total of $100 in soup to give away and no wait times, the soup
will be split between the two agents
Both get some utility from soup, so both will claim it
Assume that they split it equally, resulting in
Up
Ur
SWF
= 100
= 50
= 150
()
76 / 80
25.5 = 174.5
Social welfare with in-kind transfer (wait time) greater than cash
transfer (no wait time)
Targeting gains outweighing e ciency losses from ordeal
Scope for such targeting depends upon degree of heterogeneity in
preferences
()
77 / 80
()
78 / 80
T (z ))
()
79 / 80
()
80 / 80
Harvard University
Fall 2012
1 / 220
Outline
1
2 / 220
References
Surveys in labor economics:
Pencavel (1986) Handbook of Labor Economics vol 1
Heckman and Killingsworth (1986) Handbook of Labor Econ vol 1
Blundell and MaCurdy (1999) Handbook of Labor Economics vol 3
3 / 220
4 / 220
One period
5 / 220
1 +1/
a l1+1/
Agent earns wage w per hour worked and has y in non-labor income
With tax rate on labor income, individual solves
max u (c, l ) s.t. c = (1
)wl + y
6 / 220
(1
)w = al 1/
)w
)w
7 / 220
Econometric issues
Unobserved heterogeneity [tax instruments]
Measurement error in wages and division bias [tax instruments]
Selection into labor force [panel data]
8 / 220
)w
9 / 220
e
l
where e is earnings
) log l = log l +
) log w = log e log l = log e
log l
= log w
10 / 220
Problem: Eb
2 6= because orthogonality restriction for OLS violated
Ex. workers with high mis-reported hours also have low imputed
wages, biasing elasticity estimate downward
Solution: tax instruments again
Public Economics Lectures
11 / 220
12 / 220
y )
13 / 220
Non-Hours Responses
Traditional literature focused purely on hours of work and labor force
participation
Problem: income taxes distort many margins beyond hours of work
More important responses may be on those margins
Hours very hard to measure (most ppl report 40 hours per week)
14 / 220
15 / 220
16 / 220
17 / 220
Example 2: EITC
18 / 220
19 / 220
20 / 220
21 / 220
Optimization Frictions
22 / 220
23 / 220
Np t x D p t
149
148
Utility u( xt )
147
146
145
144
143
142
141
X p t , N
140
6
Source: Chetty 2009
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Demand (xt)
24 / 220
3.0
=1
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
0.4
Source: Chetty 2009
0.6
0.8
1
log(pA)
1.2
log(pB)
1.4
1.6
1.8
25 / 220
3.0
=1
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
0.4
Source: Chetty 2009
0.6
0.8
1
log(pA)
1.2
log(pB)
1.4
1.6
1.8
26 / 220
3.0
=1
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
0.4
Source: Chetty 2009
0.6
0.8
1
log(pA)
1.2
log(pB)
1.4
1.6
1.8
27 / 220
3.0
=1
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
0.4
Source: Chetty 2009
0.6
0.8
1
log(pA)
1.2
log(pB)
1.4
1.6
1.8
28 / 220
29 / 220
30 / 220
i ) + yi + i
31 / 220
w3
y3
w2
y2
w1
y1
-L
L2
l*
L1
32 / 220
( + wi (1
Li = ((li
1 ) + y 1 + i
1 ) + y 1 ). Likelihood:
( + wi (1
1 ) + y 1 )/)
( + wi (1
2 ) + y 2 )/)
33 / 220
1 ) + y 1 + i
( + wi (1
> lK > + wi (1 2 ) + y 2 + i
1 ) + y 1 ) < i < lK ( + wi (1 2 ) + y 2 )
= [(lK ( + wi (1 2 ) + y 2 ))/]
[(lK ( + wi (1 1 ) + y 1 ))/]
()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply
34 / 220
35 / 220
36 / 220
37 / 220
dz /z
excess mass at kink
=
dt/(1 t )
% change in NTR
38 / 220
39 / 220
40 / 220
Saez implements this method using individual tax return micro data
(IRS public use les) from 1960 to 2004
Advantage of dataset over PSID: very little measurement error
Finds sharp bunching around rst kink point of the EITC for
self-employed
Later shown to be largely due to reporting eects
41 / 220
42 / 220
43 / 220
44 / 220
45 / 220
Friedberg: Estimates
Estimates elasticities using Hausman method, nds relatively large
compensated and uncompensated elasticities
Haider and Loughran (2008) replicate these results in admin. data
over mroe years
Find that degree of bunching and implied elasticities are 3 times larger
in data with less msmt error
!So the one kink where we do nd real bunching is actually not real!
Public Economics Lectures
46 / 220
47 / 220
48 / 220
49 / 220
Ito (2012)
Ito (2012) presents evidence that individuals pay more attention to
average prices than marginal prices
Paper can be interpreted as estimating price-perception function
p
e(p + )
50 / 220
Consumption Density and Price Schedule in 2007: Bunching Around Kink Points
51 / 220
52 / 220
53 / 220
54 / 220
55 / 220
56 / 220
57 / 220
58 / 220
30000
25000
.44
15000 20000
(sum) cnt
.42
NTR
.38
.4
10000
.36
5000
.34
220000
240000
260000
280000
300000
320000
pig
NTR
(sum) cnt
59 / 220
80000
60000
20000
40000
Frequency
100000
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
10
20
30
40
50
60 / 220
80000
60000
20000
40000
Frequency
100000
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
10
20
30
40
50
61 / 220
60000
80000
20000
40000
Frequency
100000
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
10
20
30
40
50
62 / 220
30000
20000
Frequency (single men)
20000
Married Women
Excess mass (b)= 1.79
Standard error = 0.10
10000
10000
Single Men
Excess mass (b) = 0.25
Standard error = 0.04
30000
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
10
20
30
40
50
63 / 220
3000
1000
2000
Frequency (teachers)
2000
4000
6000
Teachers
Excess mass (b)= 3.54
Standard error = 0.25
Military
Excess mass (b) = -0.12
Standard error = 0.21
Frequency (military)
8000
4000
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
10
20
30
40
50
64 / 220
3000
2000
1000
Married Women
Excess Mass (b) = 1.03
Standard error = 0.14
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
Taxable Income (1000s DKR)
290
300
65 / 220
1000
8000
b = 0.41
s.e. = 0.08
2000
12000
b = 1.25
s.e. = 0.16
4000
3000
1995
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
66 / 220
2000
1000
b = 0.66
s.e. = 0.09
12000
8000
b = 1.55
s.e. = 0.17
4000
3000
1996
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
67 / 220
3000
2000
1000
b = 0.58
s.e. = 0.01
15000
10000
b = 1.26
s.e. = 0.19
5000
1997
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
68 / 220
2000
1000
b = 0.78
s.e. = 0.09
3000
12000
8000
b = 1.71
s.e. = 0.18
4000
1998
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
69 / 220
2000
b = 0.62
s.e. = 0.08
1000
0
3000
12000
b = 1.49
s.e. = 0.16
8000
4000
4000
1999
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
70 / 220
3000
2000
10000
1000
b = 0.72
s.e. = 0.09
14000
b = 1.50
s.e. = 0.21
6000
4000
2000
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
71 / 220
4000
3000
2000
1000
b = 0.55
s.e. = 0.10
14000
10000
b = 1.44
s.e. = 0.20
6000
2001
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
72 / 220
30000
10000
20000
Frequency
40000
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Taxable Income Relative to Middle Bracket Cutoff
40
50
73 / 220
Observed Elasticities
0.01
0.005
-0.005
0
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
74 / 220
1000
500
0
Frequency
1500
All Teachers
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
10
20
30
40
50
75 / 220
10000
6000
4000
0
2000
Frequency
8000
This group
starts paying
top tax here
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
10
20
30
40
50
76 / 220
(a) Electricians,
Electricians
(3114),2000
2000
Frequency
100
40
20
Frequency
200
60
80
300
-50
50
100
-100
-50
50
Earnings
Relative
Top Bracket
Wage Wage
Earnings
Relative
to Topto
Bracket
Cutoff Cutoff
(1000s DKr)
Earnings
Relative
Top Bracket
Wage Wage
Earnings
Relative
to Topto
Bracket
Cutoff Cutoff
(1000s DKr)
100
200
0
100
50
Frequency
Frequency
100
300
400
150
-100
-100
-50
50
Earnings
Relative
Top Bracket
Wage Wage
Earnings
Relative
to Topto
Bracket
Cutoff Cutoff
(1000s DKr)
100
-100
-50
50
100
77 / 220
10
Frequency
20
30
-100
-50
50
100
Modes of Wage Earnings Distributions Relative to Top Bracket Cutoff (1000s DKr)
Source: Chetty et al. 2009
78 / 220
79 / 220
80 / 220
3
3k
2.5
2
2k
1.5
1
Percent of Wage-Earners
3.5
1k
.5
0
0k
$0
$5K
$10K
$25K
$20K
$25K
$30K
$35K
81 / 220
82 / 220
83 / 220
Percent of Filers
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-$10K
$0
$10K
$20K
84 / 220
Percent of Filers
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-$10K
$0
$10K
$20K
85 / 220
Fraction of Tax Filers Who Report SE Income that Maximizes EITC Refund
in 2008
4.1 42.7%
2.8 4.1%
2.1 2.8%
1.8 2.1%
1.5 1.8%
1.2 1.5%
1.1 1.2%
0.9 1.1%
0.7 0.9%
0 0.7%
86 / 220
87 / 220
88 / 220
5%
Effect of Moving to
10th Decile = 1.93
(0.13)
4%
Effect of Moving to
1st Decile = -0.41
(0.11)
3%
2%
1%
0%
-4
-2
Event Year
Movers to Lowest
Bunching Decile
Public Economics Lectures
Movers to Middle
Bunching Decile
Movers to Highest
Bunching Decile
89 / 220
90 / 220
120
100
= 59.7
(5.7)
80
60
= 6.0
(6.2)
40
-1%
-0.5%
0%
0.5%
1%
91 / 220
3.5%
Sharp Bunching
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
R2 = 0.6
1.0%
-2
92 / 220
93 / 220
3.5
3k
2.5
2
2k
1.5
1
Percent of Wage-Earners
1k
.5
0
0k
$0
$5K
$10K
$25K
$20K
$25K
$30K
$35K
94 / 220
4k
3k
2.5
2
2k
1.5
1
Percent of Wage-Earners
1k
.5
0
0k
$0
$5K
$10K
$25K
$20K
$25K
$30K
$35K
95 / 220
96 / 220
97 / 220
Earnings Distribution in the Year Before First Child Birth for Wage Earners
Percent of Individuals
6%
4%
2%
0%
$10K
$0
$20K
$30K
$40K
Wage Earnings
Lowest Sharp
Bunching Decile
Public Economics Lectures
Middle Sharp
Bunching Decile
()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply
Highest Sharp
Bunching Decile
98 / 220
Earnings Distribution in the Year of First Child Birth for Wage Earners
Percent of Individuals
6%
4%
2%
0%
$10K
$0
$20K
$30K
$40K
Wage Earnings
Lowest Sharp
Bunching Decile
Public Economics Lectures
Middle Sharp
Bunching Decile
()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply
Highest Sharp
Bunching Decile
99 / 220
Simulated EITC Credit Amount for Wage Earners Around First Child Birth
1900
1850
= 85.4
(7.2)
1800
1750
-4
-2
Age of Child
Lowest Sharp
Bunching Decile
Public Economics Lectures
Middle Sharp
Bunching Decile
Highest Sharp
Bunching Decile
100 / 220
200
= 26.5
(1.97)
100
-100
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
101 / 220
200
= 26.5
(1.97)
100
= -0.13
(1.08)
-100
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2 to 3 Children
102 / 220
103 / 220
100% of
Poverty Line
150% of
Poverty Line
200% of
Poverty Line
13.7%
31.9%
54.3%
77.3%
EITC, No
Behavioral
Response
9.4%
22.0%
42.1%
71.1%
EITC, with
Avg. Behavioral
Response
8.2%
21.0%
42.0%
71.3%
6.2%
19.6%
42.0%
71.7%
No EITC
Counterfactual
104 / 220
Elasticity Estimates Based on Change in EITC Refunds Around Birth of First Child
Mean
Elasticity
Phase-in
Elasticity
Phase-out
Elasticity
Extensive
Elasticity
A. Wage Earnings
Elasticity in U.S. 2000-2005
0.10
(0.008)
0.14
(0.011)
0.06
(0.006)
0.10
(0.009)
0.46
(0.017)
0.58
(0.021)
0.30
(0.021)
0.59
(0.033)
B. Total Earnings
Elasticity in U.S. 2000-2005
0.22
(0.013)
0.34
(0.020)
0.08
(0.004)
0.18
(0.012)
0.95
(0.026)
1.32
(0.036)
0.34
(0.012)
1.05
(0.039)
105 / 220
106 / 220
107 / 220
108 / 220
109 / 220
110 / 220
111 / 220
Selective attrition
After initial year, data was collected based on voluntary income reports
by families to qualify for the grant
Those in less generous groups/far above breakeven point had much less
incentive to report
Consequently attrition rates were much higher in these groups
112 / 220
113 / 220
114 / 220
115 / 220
116 / 220
117 / 220
118 / 220
119 / 220
120 / 220
121 / 220
MTR )
Note that elasticities reported in paper are w.r.t. average tax rates:
L,T /E
E ,T /E
(L87 LA )/LA
T86 /E86
(
E
87 EA )/EA
T86 /E86
122 / 220
Variation across states because Fed govt. gave block grants with
guidelines
EITC also expanded during this period: general shift from welfare to
workfare
Public Economics Lectures
123 / 220
124 / 220
Benets: did removing many people from transfer system reduce their
welfare?
How did consumption change?
125 / 220
Study the rst question: impact of welfare reforms and EITC on labor
supply
Document dramatic (6 pp, 10%) increase in LFP for single women
with children around EITC expansion
No change for women without children
126 / 220
127 / 220
.9
.8
.7
Employment Rate
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
Year
Children
No Children
128 / 220
129 / 220
130 / 220
131 / 220
132 / 220
133 / 220
134 / 220
135 / 220
Larger responses for workers who are less attached to labor force
Married women, low incomes, retirees
136 / 220
137 / 220
U=
t u ( ct , lt )
t =0
Combining yields:
lt
: t ult + wt /(1 + r )t = 0
ct
: t uct + /(1 + r )t = 0
ul (lt ) = wt uc
138 / 220
= l (wt , /( (1 + r ))t )
= c (wt , /( (1 + r ))t )
v (l )
) v (lt ) = wt /[ (1 + r )]t
) lt = v 0 1 (wt /[ (1 + r )]t )
Su ciency of greatly simplies solution to ITLS model
Public Economics Lectures
139 / 220
wt l
)
j
lt wt
Experiment: change wage rate in one period only, holding all other
wages, and consumption prole constant
Can show that > 0: work more today to take advantage of
temporarily higher wage
In separable case:
lt
= v 0 1 (wt /[ (1 + r )]t )
l
)
j =
>0
wt
(1 + r )t v 00 (lt )
()Part 5: Income Taxation and Labor Supply
140 / 220
141 / 220
142 / 220
143 / 220
Frisch elasticity
Compensated static elasticity
144 / 220
d [wli ,t ] 2 Ai ,t
)
dYi ,t
wli ,t
0.11
0.22
0.33
0.44
0.55
0.66
0.35
0.00
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.20
0.33
0.34
0.35
0.36
0.38
0.41
0.44
0.55
0.40
0.33
0.34
0.36
0.39
0.43
0.49
0.55
0.60
EIS
0.60
0.33
0.34
0.37
0.42
0.48
0.56
0.66
0.65
()
0.80
0.33
0.35
0.38
0.44
0.53
0.64
0.77
0.70
1.00
0.33
0.35
0.39
0.47
0.58
0.71
0.88
0.75
1.20
0.33
0.35
0.41
0.50
0.63
0.79
0.99
0.79
1.40
0.33
0.35
0.42
0.53
0.67
0.87
1.10
0.84
145 / 220
MaCurdy (1983)
Structural estimate using panel data for men and within-person wage
variation
Find both Frisch and compensated wage elasticity of around 0.15
But wage variation is not exogenous
Pencavel (2002)
Instruments with trade balance interacted with schooling and age
Frisch elasticity: 0.2
Uncompensated wage elasticity: 0-0.2
146 / 220
147 / 220
148 / 220
149 / 220
150 / 220
151 / 220
.75
.5
.333
0
10
15
20
Years of Tenure at Retirement
25
30
152 / 220
4000
2000
0
Number of Individuals
6000
Quarterly Frequency
10
15
20
Years of Tenure at Retirement
25
153 / 220
154 / 220
155 / 220
Feldstein 1995
156 / 220
157 / 220
Feldstein: Results
158 / 220
H )
Estimated elasticity e =
e 20% 0
20% 10%
H ) = 20%
= 2e
159 / 220
160 / 220
161 / 220
18%
Wages
16%
S-Corp.
Partner.
Sole P.
Dividends
Interest
Other
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
0%
FIGURE 7
The Top 1% Income Share and Composition, 1960-2000
Source: Saez 2004
162 / 220
taxt ) + 2 log(1
taxt +1 )
163 / 220
164 / 220
Goolsbee 2000
165 / 220
= ft +3 (yt , Xt )
= ft +3 (yt +3 , Xt +3 )
log(1
MTRt ) on
Isolates changes in laws (ft ) as the only source of variation in tax rates
Public Economics Lectures
166 / 220
167 / 220
168 / 220
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-4
-2
169 / 220
170 / 220
171 / 220
172 / 220
Macro Evidence
Macroeconomists estimate/calibrate elasticities by examining
long-term trends/cross-country comparisons
Identication more tenuous but estimates perhaps more relevant to
long-run policy questions of interest
Use aggregate hours data and aggregate measures of taxes (average
tax rates)
But highly inuential in calibration of macroeconomic models
Macro models require high elasticities to t both business cycle and
cross-country data
173 / 220
Prescott 2004
Uses data on hours worked by country in 1970 and 1995 for 7 OECD
countries
Technique to identify elasticity: calibration
Rough logic: posit a utility function u (c, l; )
Hicksian elasticity of = 0.8 best matches cross-country evidence
Note that this is analogous to a regression without controls for other
variables abstracting from GE eects
174 / 220
7.4
Prescott=0.7
Japan 1970-74
US.1970-74
7.2
Japan 1993-96
UK 1993-96
Germany.1970-74
France 1970-74
Canada 1993-96
UK 1970-74
US 1993-96
Canada 1970-74
7
Germany 1993-96
Italy 1970-74
France 1993-96
6.8
Italy 1993-96
-1
-.8
-.6
-.4
-.2
175 / 220
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
Employment
176 / 220
= Nh
d log N
d log h
d log h
=
+
>
d (1 ) d (1 )
d (1 )
177 / 220
Optimization Frictions
178 / 220
179 / 220
180 / 220
181 / 220
Setup
Consider a static demand model; results hold in dynamic model
N individuals with quasilinear utility over two goods:
ui (x, y ) = y + ai
x 1 1/
1 1/
where vi = i
E log x1
log p1
E log x0
log p0
182 / 220
E log x1
log p1
E log x0
log p0
b =
E log p
e ( p1 )
log p1
E log p
e ( p0 )
log p0
183 / 220
Optimization Frictions
184 / 220
Np t x D p t
149
148
Utility u( xt )
147
146
145
144
143
142
141
X p t , N
140
6
Source: Chetty 2009
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Demand (xt)
185 / 220
3.0
=1
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
0.4
Source: Chetty 2009
0.6
0.8
1
log(pA)
1.2
log(pB)
1.4
1.6
1.8
186 / 220
187 / 220
Partial Identication
188 / 220
3.4
3.2
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2
1.8
0.2
Source: Chetty 2009
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
log(pA)
1.2
1.4
log(pB)
1.6
1.8
2.2
189 / 220
3.4
3.2
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2
1.8
0.2
Source: Chetty 2009
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
log(pA)
1.2
1.4
log(pB)
1.6
1.8
2.2
190 / 220
3.4
3.2
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2
1.8
0.2
Source: Chetty 2009
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
log(pA)
1.2
1.4
log(pB)
1.6
1.8
2.2
191 / 220
4
4
(1 ),b +
(1 + )]
( log p )2
( log p )2
1 b
( log p )2 )1/2
where = (1 +
2
[b +
192 / 220
F (p )
log A (pA )
log pA
log B (pB )
log pB
193 / 220
Intensive Margin
Bounds
3.5
Elasticity ()
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
Extensive Margin
Bounds
1.0
0.5
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Observed Elasticity ( )
^
194 / 220
195 / 220
196 / 220
Identification
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
0.15
0.20
0.09
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.07
0.07
0.09
0.07
0.39
0.07
0.07
0.23
0.39
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.03
0.80
15.29
15.07
1.78
0.80
0.37
0.14
0.09
0.12
0.49
0.25
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.15
0.05
0.14
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.49
0.14
0.15
0.36
0.71
0.71
0.34
0.30
0.11
0.09
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.28
0.12
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.92
4.42
3.51
0.84
0.86
0.54
0.70
0.93
6.62
9.88
A. Hours Elasticities
1. MaCurdy (1981)
2. Eissa and Hoynes (1998)
3. Eissa and Hoynes (1998)
4. Blundell et al. (1998)
5. Ziliak and Kniesner (1999)
se( P ) log(1-)
197 / 220
Identification
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
1.04
0.57
1.00
0.50
1.07
0.84
0.12
0.15
0.18
0.22
0.26
0.37
0.37
0.30
0.30
0.37
0.21
0.47
0.14
0.44
2.89
1.53
2.14
1.77
2.58
0.09
0.08
0.004
0.42
0.58
1.00
0.18
0.07
0.19
1.20
0.57
0.51
se( P ) log(1-)
D. Macro/Cross-Sectional
21. Prescott (2004)
Cross-country Tax Variation, 1970-96
22. Davis and Henrekson (2005) Cross-country Tax Variation, 1995
23. Blau and Kahn (2007)
U.S. wage variation, 1980-2000
Mean observed elasticity
0.46
0.20
0.31
0.32
198 / 220
2.5
Elasticity
2
MaCurdy (1981)
1.5
0.5
0
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
199 / 220
Feldstein (1995)
2.5
Goolsbee TRA86
Elasticity
Saez (2004)
MaCurdy (1981)
1.5
Prescott (2004)
1
Gelber (2010)
Davis and Henrekson
(2005)
0.5
0
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
200 / 220
Feldstein (1995)
2.5
Goolsbee TRA86
Elasticity
Saez (2004)
MaCurdy (1981)
1.5
Prescott (2004)
1
Gelber (2010)
Davis and Henrekson
(2005)
0.5
0
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
201 / 220
Feldstein (1995)
Elasticity
Saez (2004)
MaCurdy (1981)
1.5
Prescott (2004)
1
Gelber (2010)
Davis and Henrekson
(2005)
0.5
0
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
202 / 220
Elasticity ()
.8
.6
.4
min=0.33
.2
0
min= 0.5% 1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
203 / 220
Blau and
Kahn (2007)
0.4
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
204 / 220
Chetty, Guren, Manoli, and Weber (2012): can frictions explain gap
between micro and macro elasticities?
Collect estimates of intensive and extensive margin elasticities
adjusted for frictions and evaluate macro predictions
205 / 220
7.4
Prescott=0.7
micro=0.58
Japan 1970-74
US.1970-74
7.2
Japan 1993-96
UK 1993-96
Germany.1970-74
France 1970-74
Canada 1993-96
UK 1970-74
US 1993-96
Canada 1970-74
7
Germany 1993-96
Italy 1970-74
France 1993-96
6.8
Italy 1993-96
-1
-.8
-.6
-.4
-.2
206 / 220
Extensive
Margin
Intensive Aggregate
Margin
Hours
micro
0.25
0.33
0.58
macro
0.17
0.33
0.50
Intertemporal Substitution
(Frisch)
micro
macro
207 / 220
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
Employment
208 / 220
Extensive
Margin
Intensive Aggregate
Margin
Hours
micro
0.25
0.33
0.58
macro
0.17
0.33
0.50
micro
0.32
0.54
0.86
macro
[2.77]
[0.54]
3.31
Intertemporal Substitution
(Frisch)
209 / 220
(l )
210 / 220
Chetty 2006
Suppose marginal utility of consumption declines quickly, i.e. large
Then as wages rise, individuals should quickly become sated with
goods
Therefore, they should opt to consume much more leisure when
wages rise
But this would imply l ,w << 0
Ex: if marginal utility of consumption drops to zero, agent reduces
labor supply 1-1 as wage rises
211 / 220
ul (y + wl, l )
(1 +
wl l ,y
)
y l c ,w
212 / 220
213 / 220
uc ,ul
Case A: < 1
w1uc(w1l,l)
w0uc(w0l,l)
-ul(w0l,l)
w1uc(w1l,l)
Case B: > 1
lB
l0
lA
214 / 220
Sample
(2)
Identification
(3)
Income
Elasticity
(4)
Compensated
Wage Elasticity
(5)
Additive
(6)
c/c=0.15
(7)
A. Hours
MaCurdy (1981)
Blundell and MaCurdy (1999)
MaCurdy, Green, Paarsch (1990)
Eissa and Hoynes (1998)
Friedberg (2000)
Blundell, Duncan, Meghir (1998)
Average
Married Men
Men
Married Men
Married Men, Inc < 30K
Married Women, Inc < 30K
Older Men (63-71)
Women, UK
Panel
Various
Cross Section
EITC Expansions
EITC Expansions
Soc. Sec. Earnings Test
Tax Reforms
-0.020
-0.120
-0.010
-0.030
-0.040
-0.297
-0.185
0.130
0.567
0.035
0.192
0.088
0.545
0.301
0.46
0.63
1.47
0.88
0.64
0.93
0.93
0.69
0.60
0.82
1.81
1.08
1.34
1.46
1.66
0.94
EITC Expansions
EITC Expansions
-0.008
-0.038
0.033
0.288
0.44
0.15
0.29
0.48
0.30
0.39
Lottery Players in MA
Married, Inc > 30K
Single and Married, Inc>15K
Lottery Winnings
TRA 1986
TRA 1986
-0.110
1.040
0.660
0.32
0.50
0.41
0.41
0.65
0.53
Women
Europe/US aggregate stats
Europe/US aggregate stats
Cohort Trends
Cross-Section of countries
Cross-Country time series
-0.278
-0.251
-0.222
0.646
0.432
0.375
0.60
1.74
1.78
1.37
1.29
2.25
2.30
1.95
0.71
0.97
B. Participation
Eissa and Hoynes (1998)
Average
C. Earned Income
Imbens, Rubin, Sacerdote (2001)
Feldstein (1995)
Auten and Carroll (1997)
Average
D. Macroeconomic/Trend Evidence
Blau and Kahn (2005)
Davis and Henrekson (2004)
Prescott (2004)
Average
Overall Average
Source: Chetty 2006
215 / 220
(1 +
wl l ,y
y ) l c ,w
216 / 220
Income Distribution
Third piece can be well measured using tax data, even for high
incomes (Piketty and Saez 2004)
217 / 220
218 / 220
$40,000
35%
$35,000
30%
$30,000
25%
$25,000
20%
$20,000
15%
$15,000
10%
$10,000
5%
Average Income
$5,000
0%
2000
1998
1996
1994
1990
1992
1988
1986
1984
1980
1982
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1964
1966
1962
1960
$0
219 / 220
$800,000
70%
$700,000
60%
$600,000
50%
$500,000
40%
$400,000
30%
$300,000
20%
$200,000
10%
Average Income
$100,000
0%
2000
1998
1996
1994
1990
1992
1988
1986
1984
1980
1982
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1964
1966
1962
1960
$0
220 / 220
Harvard University
Fall 2012
()
1 / 178
Outline
Unemployment Insurance
WorkersCompensation
Disability Insurance
Health Insurance
()
2 / 178
()
3 / 178
Health
0.4%
Social
Security Income
3.6% Security
5%
Other
21.6%
National Defense
69.4%
National
Defense
20.7%
Health
9.4%
Social
Security
20.7%
Income
Security
14.5%
Other
34.8%
1953
2008
Source: Office of Management and Budget, historical tables, government outlays by function
()
4 / 178
% of GDP
% of Central
Government
Expenditures
% of Total
Government
Expenditures
Sweden
32.47%
86.60%
49.58%
Germany
28.05%
82.91%
49.44%
Mexico
1.36%
8.82%
6.39%
Columbia
6.61%
43.33%
N/A
United Kingdom
17.53%
43.13%
33.77%
United States
12.22%
59.76%
30.02%
Japan
2.50%
19.44%
16%
Czech Republic
11.89%
38.90%
25.75%
()
5 / 178
80
60
40
0
20
100
120
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Time (months)
Belgium
Hungary
Spain
Sweden
USA
()
6 / 178
Generate new distortions as you x the problem you set out to solve
> second-best solution
Identify optimal policy by combining theoretical models of social
insurance with empirical evidence on program eects
Public Economics Lectures
()
7 / 178
References
()
8 / 178
()
9 / 178
()
10 / 178
Rothschild-Stiglitz model
()
11 / 178
()
12 / 178
Rothschild-Stiglitz: Contracts
An insurance contract is described by a vector = (1 , 2 )
Consumption in the two states: (E1
1 , E2 + 2 )
p i ) u ( E1
1 ) + p i u ( E2 + 2 )
p
p
()
13 / 178
Rothschild-Stiglitz: Equilibrium
Denition
An equilibrium is dened by a set of insurance contracts such that
(1) individuals optimize: both types cannot nd a better contract than the
ones they chose
(2) rms optimize: all rms earn zero prots
()
14 / 178
Plugging in 2 =
1 pi
pi
max(1
pi ) u ( w
1 ) + pi u (w +
pi
pi
1 ).
Solution
Set MRS12 =
1 pi
pi ,
()
15 / 178
()
16 / 178
()
17 / 178
1 p
p 1
but p > pL .
()
18 / 178
()
19 / 178
()
20 / 178
EUH = u (100(1
()
pH )) =
100
1
=5
4
21 / 178
()
3p
100
4
3.85 +
1p
3 3.85 = 8.2.
4
22 / 178
1 1
7
9 3
+
)100 = 100 = 70.
10 4 10 4
10
()
70 > 8.2
23 / 178
Because there are relatively few high risk types, L types benet from
pooling with them and getting full insurance coverage.
Note: pooled contract of 70 could be oered by a private rm,
destroying separating eq. proposed above
Hence there is actually no equilibrium in this example
()
24 / 178
What tool does the govt. have that private sector does not? Ability
to mandate
Public Economics Lectures
()
25 / 178
()
26 / 178
()
27 / 178
()
28 / 178
Correlation does not clearly map into parameters that control welfare
costs of selection
Einav, Finkelstein, and Cullen (2010) develop cost curve tests that
map to measures of welfare costs
Only applicable in markets that exist, i.e. those that have not totally
unravelled
Hendren (2012) uses subjective expectations data to bound welfare
costs in markets that have unraveled
Public Economics Lectures
()
29 / 178
()
30 / 178
()
31 / 178
()
32 / 178
Unemployment Insurance
Potential benets
1
Potential distortions
1
()
33 / 178
()
34 / 178
Replacement Rate
Common measure of programs size is its replacement rate
r=
net benet
net wage
()
35 / 178
200
100
300
362 400
200
400
600
800
1000
()
36 / 178
Baily-Chetty model
Canonical analysis of optimal level of UI benets: Baily (1978)
Shows that the optimal benet level can be expressed as a fn of a
small set of parameters in a static model.
Once viewed as being of limited practical relevance because of strong
assumptions
Chetty (2006) shows formula actually applies with arbitrary choice
variables and constraints.
Parameters identied by Baily are su cient statistics for welfare
analysis ) robust yet simple guide for optimal policy.
Public Economics Lectures
()
37 / 178
()
38 / 178
()
39 / 178
e) b
t (b )) + (1
()
e )u (A + wl + b )
(e )
40 / 178
t ) + (1
b,e
s.t. t =
e
e
e )u (A + wl + b )
(e )
()
41 / 178
wl
wl
b
()
42 / 178
t ) + (1
e )u (A + wl + b )
(e )
s.t. e (b )t = (1
()
e (b ))b
43 / 178
Problem
Optimal Social Insurance
max V (b, t (b ))
b
s.t. e (b )t (b ) = (1
e (b ) = arg max e u (A + wh
e
e (b ))b
t ) + (1
e ) u (A + wl + b )
(e )
()
44 / 178
()
45 / 178
t (b )) + (1
e )u (A + wl + b )
(e )
e
b
e ) u 0 ( cl )
dt 0
eu (ch )
db
()
46 / 178
Kaplan 2009
()
47 / 178
+(1
t (b ))
e )[u (A + wl + b + H )
g (H )]
(e )
dV (b )
db
dV (b )
= (1
db
e ) u 0 ( cl )
dt 0
eu (ch )
db
()
48 / 178
=
=)
b de
1 e
=
(1 + 1 e,b )
2
e
e db
e
e
dV (b )
= (1 e )fu 0 (cl ) (1 + 1 e,b )u 0 (ch )g
db
e
= 1 e,b
u 0 ( ch )
e
LHS: benet of transferring $1 from high to low state
RHS: cost of transferring $1 due to behavioral responses
()
49 / 178
Baily-Chetty Formula
u 0 ( cl ) u 0 ( ch )
= 1 e,b
0
u ( ch )
e
This equation provides an exact formula for the optimal benet rate
Implementation requires identication of
Three ways to identify
u 0 (c l ) u 0 (c h )
u 0 (c h )
u 0 (c l ) u 0 (c h )
u 0 (c h )
empirically
()
50 / 178
Consumption-Based Formula
u 0 ( ch )
u 00 (ch )(cl
ch )
u 00 (c )c
,
u 0 (c )
we can write
u 00 c
ch
u0
c
c
=
c
(1)
()
51 / 178
Consumption-Based Formula
Theorem
The optimal unemployment benet level b satises
c
(b )
c
e,b
where
c
c
=
1
e,b
ch
cl
()
52 / 178
Consumption-Based Formula
c
(b )
c
e,b
()
53 / 178
()
54 / 178
Weekly
Benefit
Amount
WBAAmax
After Benefit Increase
WBABmax
Before Benefit Increase
WBAmin
E1
E2
E3
Previous Earnings
High Earnings Group
()
55 / 178
Hazard Models
Dene hazard rate ht = number that nd a job at time t divided by
number unemployed at time t
This is an estimate of the probability of nding a job at time t
conditional on being unemployed for at least t weeks
()
56 / 178
Hazard Models
Useful to rewrite expression as:
log ht = log t + X
Key assumption: eect of covariates proportional across all weeks
d log hs
d log ht
==
8t, s
dX
dX
If a change in a covariate doubles hazard in week 1, it is forced to
double hazard in week 2 as well
Restrictive but a good starting point; can be relaxed by allowing for
time varying covariates Xt
()
57 / 178
Meyer 1990
Meyer includes log UI benet level as a covariate:
log ht = log t + 1 log b + 2 X
In this specication,
d log ht
= 1 = ht ,b
d log b
Note: in exponential survival (constant-hazard) models,
ht ,b = 1 e,b
Meyer estimates ht ,b =
claimants
()
0.5
58 / 178
()
59 / 178
()
60 / 178
Gruber 1997
Gruber estimates
Finds 1 = 0.24, 2 =
c
b
= 1 + 2
c
w
0.28
()
61 / 178
()
62 / 178
e,b
e
1
e,b
/e 1
b
= 1 e,b ( )
w
2
1
2
()
.43/.95 1
)
.28
( .24)
.28
63 / 178
Results:
b
w
b
w
1
0
2
0.05
3
0.31
4
0.45
5
0.53
10
0.7
()
64 / 178
()
65 / 178
()
66 / 178
.025
0
-.025
-.05
-.075
.05
-4
-2
Food
()
67 / 178
.025
0
-.025
-.05
-.075
.05
-4
-2
Food
()
68 / 178
()
69 / 178
()
70 / 178
b
w
1
0
2
0.05
3
0.31
4
0.45
5
0.53
10
0.7
()
71 / 178
Since and c
c are hard to identify, recent work has sought
alternative ways of calculating optimal benet.
Two approaches
1
()
72 / 178
ct
L
()
73 / 178
No heterogeneity
()
74 / 178
()
75 / 178
st+1
ctu
1-st+1
()
ct+1e
ct+1u
76 / 178
At + 1 + w
) + Vt + 1 ( At + 1 )
At +1 + bt ) + Jt +1 (At +1 )
()
s t ) U t ( At )
(st )
77 / 178
U t ( At )
()
78 / 178
) st /bt
()
79 / 178
()
80 / 178
u 0 (ctu ) u 0 (cte )
= 1 e,b
e
0
u ( ct )
e
Combining yields formula that depends solely on duration elasticities:
st /At
st /bt st /At
1 e,A
1 e,b Ab 1 e,A
Public Economics Lectures
()
e,b
e
e,b
e
81 / 178
()
82 / 178
()
83 / 178
TABLE 1
Summary Statistics by Wealth Quartile for SIPP Sample
1
(< -$1,115)
Median Liq. Wealth
Median Debt
Median Home Equity
Median Annual Wage
4
(>$13,430)
$466
$5,659
$2,510
$17,188
$0
$0
$0
$14,374
$4,273
$353
$11,584
$18,573
$53,009
$835
$48,900
$23,866
12.21
35.48
11.23
35.18
12.17
36.64
13.12
41.74
Fraction Renters
Fraction Married
0.43
0.64
0.61
0.59
0.35
0.60
0.16
0.63
()
84 / 178
Figure 3a
.2
Fraction Unemployed
.4
.6
.8
10
20
30
Weeks Unemployed
40
50
()
85 / 178
Figure 3b
.2
Fraction Unemployed
.6
.4
.8
10
20
30
Weeks Unemployed
40
50
()
86 / 178
Figure 3c
.2
Fraction Unemployed
.4
.6
.8
10
20
30
Weeks Unemployed
40
50
()
87 / 178
Figure 3d
Fraction Unemployed
.6
.8
.2
.4
10
20
30
Weeks Unemployed
40
50
()
88 / 178
TABLE 2
Effect of UI Benefits: Cox Hazard Model Estimates
(1)
(2)
Pooled
Full cntrls
Stratified
No cntrls
(3)
(4)
(5)
-0.527
(0.267)
log UI ben
Q1 x log UI ben
-0.721
(0.304)
-0.978
(0.398)
-0.727
(0.302)
-0.642
(0.241)
Q2 x log UI ben
-0.699
(0.484)
-0.725
(0.420)
-0.388
(0.303)
-0.765
(0.219)
Q3 x log UI ben
-0.368
(0.309)
-0.476
(0.358)
-0.091
(0.370)
-0.561
(0.156)
Q4 x log UI ben
0.234
(0.369)
0.103
(0.470)
0.304
(0.339)
0.016
(0.259)
0.039
0.012
0.013
0.008
0.001
0.002
0.090
0.062
4337
4054
4054
4054
Q1=Q4 p-val
Q1+Q2=Q3+Q4 p-val
Number of Spells
4529
()
89 / 178
TABLE 3
Summary Statistics for Mathematica Data
Pooled
No Severance
Severance
(0.83)
(0.17)
Percent dropouts
14%
15%
6%
17%
13%
34%
Percent married
58%
56%
68%
Mean age
36.2
35.2
40.6
$19,347
$30,693
1.5
4.8
1.9
()
90 / 178
Figure 5
.5
Fraction Unemployed
.7
.9
.6
.8
10
Weeks Unemployed
No Severance
15
20
Received Severance
()
91 / 178
Figure 6a
.4
Fraction Unemployed
.6
.8
10
Weeks Unemployed
No Severance
15
20
Received Severance
()
92 / 178
Figure 6b
.4
Fraction Unemployed
.6
.8
10
Weeks Unemployed
No Severance
15
20
Received Severance
()
93 / 178
TABLE 4
Effect of Severance Pay: Cox Hazard Model Estimates
Pooled
Severance Pay
By Liquid Wealth
By Sev. Amt.
-0.233
(0.071)
-0.457
(0.099)
-0.088
(0.081)
-0.143
(0.055)
-0.340
(0.119)
<0.01
0.03
()
94 / 178
()
95 / 178
Severance Amt.
(months of pay)
3
2
0
0
36
()
60
Job Tenure
96 / 178
Figure 3
30000
20000
10000
0
Number of Layoffs
40000
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
()
97 / 178
32
30
31
Mean Age
33
34
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
()
98 / 178
Figure 4
.9
.85
.8
.95
Selection on Observables
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
()
99 / 178
Figure 5a
165
160
155
150
145
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
()
100 / 178
TABLE 3a
Effects of Severance Pay and EB on Durations: Hazard Model Estimates
Severance pay
(1)
(2)
(3)
Restricted
Sample
Restricted
Sample
Full
Sample
-0.122
-0.125
(0.019)
(0.017)
Extended benefits
Sample size
512,767
-0.084
-0.093
(0.018)
(0.016)
512,767
650,922
NOTE--All specs are Cox hazard models that include cubic polynomials with
interactions with sevpay and/or extended benefit dummy.
()
101 / 178
F (x )
F (b + t ))E [u (w
t )jw
t > b ] + F (b + t )u (b )
()
t ) = W (b )
102 / 178
Governments problem is
max W (b ) = max u (w 0
t ) = max w 0
It follows that
dW
db
=
=
()
d w 0
db
d w 0
db
dt
db
1 e
1
(1 +
1
e
e
e,b )
103 / 178
d w 0
db
Find gains from raising UI benets 5 times larger than Chetty (2008)
()
104 / 178
Figure 5a
165
160
155
150
145
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
()
105 / 178
Figure 10a
-.04
-.06
-.1
-.08
Wage Growth
-.02
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
()
106 / 178
Figure 10b
.2
.15
.1
.05
0
-.05
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
()
107 / 178
Figure 9a
165
160
155
150
145
140
135
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
()
108 / 178
0
-.1
-.05
Wage Growth
.05
.1
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
()
109 / 178
.05
0
-.05
-.1
-.15
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
()
110 / 178
()
111 / 178
.15
.1
.05
0
.2
20
15
10
()
112 / 178
.2
10
20
30
40
50
()
113 / 178
.2
10
20
30
40
50
()
114 / 178
.1
.05
0
-.05
-.1
10
20
30
40
50
()
115 / 178
()
116 / 178
6
4
0
10
4
6
8
Benefit Ratio (100*UI Benefits Paid/Payroll)
Washington
s UI Tax Schedule
10
Source: Washington State Joint Legislative Task Force on Unemployment Insurance Benefit Equity 2005
()
117 / 178
()
118 / 178
First observation: more than half of rms are above the max rate or
below the min rate
No marginal incentive for these rms to reduce layos.
()
119 / 178
Topel 1983
Feldstein does not directly show that imperfect exp rating is to blame
for more temp layos b/c not using variation in experience rating itself
Topel (1983) uses state/industry variation in nancing of UI
Variation in tax rate on rms from min/max thresholds for exp rating
Finds that imperfect subsidization accounts for 31% of all temp layo
unemployment, a very large eect
See Krueger and Meyer (2002) for review of more recent studies,
which nd similar results but smaller magnitudes
()
120 / 178
UI Savings Accounts
Alternative to UI transfer-based system (Feldstein and Altman 2007)
Instead of paying UI tax to government, pay into a UI savings account.
If unemployed, deplete this savings account according to current
benet schedule
If savings exhausted, government pays benet as in current system
(nanced using a tax).
()
121 / 178
()
122 / 178
Q1
-$95
Q2
+$22
Q3
-$67
Q4
+$94
Q5
+$468
()
123 / 178
Takeup
Takeup low in many govt. programs. (UI, food stamps, EITC, etc.)
Possible explanations: myopia, stigma, hassle, lack of info.
()
124 / 178
()
125 / 178
()
126 / 178
()
127 / 178
()
128 / 178
()
129 / 178
()
130 / 178
()
131 / 178
We do not have a model consistent with the data that can explain
both savings behavior pre-unemployment and search behavior
post-unemployment
Evidence that unemployment is indeed costly and benets can improve
welfare a lot for certain liquidity-constrained groups
Simple rational model cannot rationalize level of savings that people
have when they get unemployed
()
132 / 178
Workers Compensation
Insurance against injury at work
Covers both lost wages and medical benets
Rationales for govt. intervention:
Market may fail due to adverse selection
Workers may be unaware of risks on the job
Litigation costs (origin of system in 1920s)
()
133 / 178
Arm
Hand
Index finger
Leg
Foot
Temporary Injury
(10 weeks)
California
$108,445
$64,056
$4,440
$118,795
$49,256
$6,020
Hawaii
180,960
141,520
26,800
167,040
118,900
5,800
Illinois
301,323
190,838
40,176
276,213
155,684
10,044
Indiana
86,500
62,500
10,400
74,500
50,500
5,880
Michigan
175,657
140,395
24,814
140,395
105,786
6,530
Missouri
78,908
59,521
15,305
70,405
52,719
6,493
New Jersey
154,440
92,365
8,500
147,420
78,200
6,380
New York
124,800
97,600
18,400
115,200
82,000
4,000
()
134 / 178
Theory of WorkersCompensation
()
135 / 178
()
136 / 178
()
137 / 178
Other explantations:
Gaming system for more days o.
Pure reporting eect if pain does not go away.
()
138 / 178
()
139 / 178
()
140 / 178
()
141 / 178
()
142 / 178
()
143 / 178
()
144 / 178
Disability Insurance
()
145 / 178
()
146 / 178
()
147 / 178
()
148 / 178
()
149 / 178
()
150 / 178
()
151 / 178
()
152 / 178
()
153 / 178
()
154 / 178
()
155 / 178
Gruber 2000
()
156 / 178
()
157 / 178
()
158 / 178
Gruber 2000
()
159 / 178
()
160 / 178
()
161 / 178
()
162 / 178
()
163 / 178
()
164 / 178
()
165 / 178
()
166 / 178
()
167 / 178
()
168 / 178
()
169 / 178
()
170 / 178
()
171 / 178
()
172 / 178
()
173 / 178
E[DI Apps/Pop | X]
6
MS
4
AR
AL
WV GA
LA
KY
MT MO
NCTN ME
MA
OHRI
PA
CT IL
VT
NJ
IN
IA
MN
WI
0
-2
FL
AZ
MISC
OK
TXDE NY
VA
OR CO
KS
NE
SD
UT
CA
MD
WA
ND
NH
WY
AK
NM
NV
HI
ID
-4
-6
Coefficient = -0.094, se = 0.062, t = -1.51
-8
-8
-6
-4
-2
E[Change in Employment/Pop | X]
Source: Autor and Duggan 2003
()
174 / 178
E[DI Apps/Pop | X]
MS
4
2
LA
AR
KY
WV
GA
MT
SC
OK MI
ME TX
MO
AL
NM
FL
IN
NC
TN
WA
SD KS
RI
NY
OH
OR
PA DE IL VA CO
MA
CAAZ
WY IA VT
MD
WI
NE
NJ
MN
CT
NH
UT
0
ND
-2
NV
ID
HI
AK
-4
-6
Coefficient = -0.262, se = 0.067, t = -3.90
-8
-8
-6
-4
-2
E[Change in Employment/Pop | X]
Source: Autor and Duggan 2003
()
175 / 178
E[DI Apps/Pop | X]
MS
WV
KY
AR
4
2
SC
NH
-2
AL
LA
MO
TNNC
IA
MA
NM
ME
INGA TX CO
FL
MI
WA OR
MT
OK
SD
AZ NV
NY
DE
OH
WIIL MN
PA CA
ID
UT
VT VA
MD
NJ RI
KS
WY NE
ND
HI
CT
AK
-4
-6
Coefficient = -0.343, se = 0.130, t = -2.64
-8
-8
-6
-4
-2
E[Change in Employment/Pop | X]
Source: Autor and Duggan 2003
()
176 / 178
MS
E[DI Apps/Pop | X]
6
AR
WV
AL
2
0
WY
-2
KY
SC NC
ME TN
OK MO
DE FL
RI
GA
NM
LA MT IN
KS
PA VTNY MI MA
CT
SD
VA
AZ
NV
NE
NH
IDOR OH
IL
TX
IAHI CACO
WA
MDNJ
WI
AK
MN
ND
UT
-4
-6
Coefficient = -0.849, se = 0.164 t = -5.18
-8
-8
-6
-4
-2
E[Change in Employment/Pop | X]
Source: Autor and Duggan 2003
()
177 / 178
()
178 / 178
Harvard University
Fall 2012
1 / 111
Externalities: Outline
Correcting Externalities
Empirical Applications
2 / 111
Denition
An externality arises whenever the utility or production possibility of
an agent depends directly on the actions of another agent.
Important distinction between pecuniary vs. non-pecuniary
externalities
Consuming an apple vs. consuming loud music
Not a technological distinction; depends on market in place
Coasian view: can convert all externalities into pecuniary externalities
with appropriate markets, property rights.
3 / 111
4 / 111
Model of Externalities
Firms produce x cars using c (x ) units of the numeraire y
Generates x units of pollution: P (x ) = x
Consumers have wealth Z and quasilinear utility:
u (x ) + y
d P (x )
c (x )
d x
5 / 111
c (x )
px
Demand satises
u 0 (x D ) = p
Supply satises
c 0 (x S ) = p
PMB equals PMC in equilibrium:
u 0 (x D ) = c 0 (x S )
But this is not Pareto e cient
Public Economics Lectures
6 / 111
P*
PM
MD
D = PMB = SMB
Q*
QM
Quantity
7 / 111
= u 0 (x )x c 0 (x )x d x
=
d x > 0 if x < 0
8 / 111
Price
S=PMC=SMC
PM
MD
P*
D = PMB
SMB=PMB-MD
0
Q*
QM
Quantity
9 / 111
Regulation
Permits (cap-and-trade)
10 / 111
Coasian Solution
Externalities emerge because property rights are not well dened.
Establish property rights to create markets for pollution.
Consider example of pollution in a river.
If consumer owns river, in competitive equilibrium, rms pay d for
every unit of pollution emitted.
Marginal cost of production is now c 0 (x ) + d, leading to 1st best.
11 / 111
Cost of bargaining
Ex: air pollution would require millions of agents to coordinate and
bargain
To reduce transactions costs, need an association to represent agents
This association is the government
12 / 111
Pigouvian Taxation
Impose tax t = MD (Q )
Restores Pareto e ciency and maximizes social welfare
Practical limitations:
Must know marginal damage function to set t
Di cult to measure the marginal damage in practice
13 / 111
Pigouvian Tax
SMC=PMC+MD
Price
S=PMC+t
S=PMC
$t
P*
P2
P1
D = PMB = SMB
Q*
Q2
Q1
Quantity
14 / 111
Regulation
15 / 111
Permits: Cap-and-Trade
Cap total amount of pollution and auction permits to rms
Then allow rms to trade permits to pollute
Hybrid of regulation and Coasian solution: create the market
In eq., rms with highest MC of reducing pollution will buy permits;
those that can easily reduce pollution will do so
If total number of permits is set to achieve the social optimum, both
allocative and productive e ciency will be achieved
Also have dynamic incentives to innovate because each rm is bearing
a marginal cost of pollution
Public Economics Lectures
16 / 111
17 / 111
c 0 (x ).
18 / 111
PMCQ=SMCQ
SMBQ
Pollution Reduction
Q*
19 / 111
C (Q )
20 / 111
C (Q , )] >? E [B (Q (p ))
C (Q (p ), )]
21 / 111
22 / 111
23 / 111
Quantity Regulation
Price Regulation
24 / 111
25 / 111
MB Flat, Quantity
regulation
26 / 111
27 / 111
28 / 111
d (xN )
wl + Z
29 / 111
(q1 x1 + .. + qN xN ))
s.t.
i xi
d (q )
Analogous to Ramsey tax problem, but here SWF diers from private
sector objective
Public Economics Lectures
30 / 111
Sandmo 1975
Let = marginal social welfare gain from $1 of a lump sum tax and
= marginal value of relaxing agents budget constraint
ip = optimal Pigouvian tax rate (when R = 0)
ip = 0 for goods 1 to N
31 / 111
) i
= (/)/ecii
xic dxic
/
+ ip
dpi
= ip + ir
32 / 111
33 / 111
34 / 111
35 / 111
Two approaches
Indirect market-based methods
Contingent valuation
36 / 111
37 / 111
38 / 111
39 / 111
40 / 111
41 / 111
Also study home prices but use Clean Air Act as an exogenous change
in pollution.
Clean Air Act: imposed ceilings on pollution levels by county in mid
1970s.
High pollution counties experience sharp reductions in pollution levels
relative to low pollution counties
42 / 111
43 / 111
44 / 111
45 / 111
46 / 111
47 / 111
48 / 111
49 / 111
50 / 111
Contingent Valuation
51 / 111
52 / 111
53 / 111
54 / 111
U1 = u (c1 ) + ( t u (ct ))
t 2
55 / 111
56 / 111
57 / 111
58 / 111
59 / 111
60 / 111
61 / 111
62 / 111
63 / 111
64 / 111
65 / 111
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
25-75K Below Top Tax Cutoff
Public Economics Lectures
66 / 111
60
40
20
0
Percent of Individuals
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
20
40
60
80
100
1998 to 1999
67 / 111
68 / 111
0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
-75000
-50000
-25000
25000
50000
75000
69 / 111
70 / 111
18
14
10
6
Event Study around Switches to Firm with >3% Increase in Employer Pension
Contrib.: Switchers with Positive Individual Pensions and Savings in
Year Prior to Switch
-5
0
Year Relative to Firm Switch
Employer Pensions
Total Pensions
Total Savings
71 / 111
10
-5
Total Savings
Pass-Through Rate: = 90%
(0.9%)
-5
10
72 / 111
73 / 111
20
15
10
5
0
25
20
40
60
80
100
74 / 111
.98
.96
.94
.92
.9
.88
20
40
60
80
100
75 / 111
20
15
10
25
.5
1
Wealth/Income Ratio in 1998
() Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities
1.5
76 / 111
.5
1
1.5
Wealth/Income Ratio in Year Prior to Switch
() Part 7: Public Goods and Externalities
77 / 111
Tax subsidies tend to inuence the behavior of those who are already
saving
Need to be an active saver to pay attention and respond to subsidies
More general lesson: economic tools (prices) may not be the best way
to change the behavior of non-optimizing agents
Non-traditional tools such as nudges may be more eective
78 / 111
Samuelson Rule
Alternative Instruments
79 / 111
Xh
8h
80 / 111
Private Good
Person 1
s
Consumption
Person 2
s Consumption
81 / 111
Public Good
Person 1
s
Consumption
Person 2
s Consumption
82 / 111
83 / 111
84 / 111
Production possibility F (X , G ) = 0
Assume that U h is increasing in X and G
85 / 111
s.t. F ( X h , G h )
h
Lagrangian:
L=
0 []
h U h
[X h ] : h UXh = FX
[G h ] : h UGh = FG
86 / 111
87 / 111
s.t. F ( X h , G h )
h
0 []
FOCs:
[X h ] : h UXh = FX
[G ] : h UGh = FG
h
FG
[ UGh ] = FX
h
88 / 111
= MRTGX
89 / 111
G h for individual h.
90 / 111
1/H ) > 0.
91 / 111
92 / 111
Individual h solves:
max U h (Xh , Gh + G h )
X h ,G h
s.t. Xh + Gh = Yh
FOC is UXh = UGh
Nash equilibrium exists and is unique
G s.t. all individuals optimize given othersbehavior
93 / 111
s.t. X + G = Y
+ T)
th
94 / 111
s.t. X + Z = Y
h)
95 / 111
96 / 111
97 / 111
Lab experiments
98 / 111
Hungerman 2005
Studies crowdout of church-provided welfare (soup kitchens, etc.) by
government welfare
Uses 1996 Clinton welfare reform act as an instrument for welfare
spending
One aspect of reform: reduced/eliminated welfare for non-citizens
Motivates a di-in-di strategy: compare churches in high non-citizen
areas with low non-citizen areas before/after 1996 reform
Estimates imply that total church expenditures in a state go up by 40
cents when welfare spending is cut by $1
99 / 111
100 / 111
101 / 111
102 / 111
103 / 111
104 / 111
105 / 111
106 / 111
107 / 111
108 / 111
109 / 111
110 / 111
100%
75%
27.3
50%
33.7
44.8
47.8
25%
0%
20
40
60
Social
4 week
Cash
111 / 111
Harvard University
Fall 2013
Corporate Tax
1 / 95
Corporate Tax
2 / 95
Corporate Tax
3 / 95
Corporate Tax
4 / 95
Firms Decision
Organizational
Form
Raise
Capital
S corp or C corp
Debt or
Where to Locate
Equity
Production
Payouts
Investment
Decisions
Pay Dividends
Report Profits
Pay Interest
Corporate Tax
5 / 95
Firms Decision
Organizational
Form
Raise
Capital
S corp or C corp
Debt or
Where to Locate
Indiv. vs.
Corp. tax,
Intl. tax
Production
Payouts
Equity
Investment
Decisions
Pay Dividends
Deduction of
interest
Accelerated
Depreciation
Report Profits
Pay Interest
Div. tax,
Corp. profit
tax
Policy Instruments
Corporate Tax
6 / 95
Firms Decision
Organizational
Form
Raise
Capital
S corp or C corp
Debt or
Where to Locate
Indiv. vs.
Corp. tax,
Intl. tax
Production
Payouts
Equity
Investment
Decisions
Pay Dividends
Deduction of
interest
Accelerated
Depreciation
Report Profits
Pay Interest
Div. tax,
Corp. profit
tax
Policy Instruments
Corporate Tax
7 / 95
Corporate Tax
8 / 95
Corporate Tax
9 / 95
(1 d )[(1 c )f (X + E D) + X D] + E
1+r
Corporate Tax
10 / 95
Corporate Tax
11 / 95
Corporate Tax
12 / 95
Corporate Tax
13 / 95
Corporate Tax
14 / 95
Corporate Tax
15 / 95
Corporate Tax
16 / 95
Corporate Tax
17 / 95
Corporate Tax
18 / 95
Regular Dividends
Special Dividends
82-1
86-1
90-1
94-1
Quarter
98-1
02-1
06-1
Corporate Tax
19 / 95
.2
1.2
82-1 84-1 86-1 88-1 90-1 92-1 94-1 96-1 98-1 00-1 02-1 04-1 06-1
Quarter
Public Economics Lectures
Corporate Tax
20 / 95
15
45
82-1 84-1 86-1 88-1 90-1 92-1 94-1 96-1 98-1 00-1 02-1 04-1 06-1
Quarter
Public Economics Lectures
Corporate Tax
21 / 95
Corporate Tax
22 / 95
Corporate Tax
23 / 95
Corporate Tax
24 / 95
Impacts on Investment
Corporate Tax
25 / 95
1,800
No
cut
1992
1994
cut from
38.6% to 15%
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
1988
1990
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Year
Corporate Tax
26 / 95
Yagan (2013)
After incorporating, a corporation elects either C or S tax status:
Tax rate on
annual profits
Tax rate on
dividends
C-corporations
35%
Cut in 2003
S-corporations
35%
0%
Corporate Tax
27 / 95
Payouts to Shareholders
200%
[$.0063]
200%
[$.075]
150%
[$.0047]
150%
[$.056]
100%
[$.0031]
100%
[$.037]
98
99
00
01
02
03
Year
C-corporations (left scale)
Corporate Tax
04
05
06
07
08
28 / 95
Net Investment
capital per dollar of lagged capital
$.100
$.075
$.050
$.025
$.000
98
99
00
01
02
03
Year
C-corporations
Public Economics Lectures
Corporate Tax
04
05
06
07
08
S-corporations
29 / 95
Employee Compensation
$.18
$.17
$.16
$.15
$.14
98
99
00
01
02
03
Year
C-corporations
Public Economics Lectures
Corporate Tax
04
05
06
07
08
S-corporations
30 / 95
-.5 SD
[-$.125]
10
Size Decile
Corporate Tax
31 / 95
Corporate Tax
32 / 95
Productive investment: I
Dividends: D = X I J
Corporate Tax
33 / 95
Corporate Tax
g (J)
1+r
34 / 95
Corporate Tax
35 / 95
W =+
Corporate Tax
36 / 95
Corporate Tax
37 / 95
Corporate Tax
38 / 95
Preceding models assume that firms can only repay money through
dividends
But firms can also return money to shareholders by buying back shares
Repurchases are taxed at lower capital gains rate rather than dividends
Why pay dividends given tax disadvantage?
Corporate Tax
39 / 95
Agency model (Jensen 1986): firms have free cash flow that they
would otherwise waste on perks
Dividends are a commitment (why?) and therefore tie firms hands and
reduce agency costs
Corporate Tax
40 / 95
Use data from 1962-86 and find that premia are higher in higher tax
regimes using time series regressions, supporting signalling model
Corporate Tax
41 / 95
Corporate Tax
42 / 95
Elton and Gruber (1970) propose a method to back out implied tax
rate based on price change around ex-dividend day
Ex-dividend day which is the day when ownership rights to dividend
payout are determined
Profit from selling just before the ex-day should equal the profit from
selling on the ex-day to eliminate arbitrage
Corporate Tax
43 / 95
(1)
Corporate Tax
44 / 95
Rearranging 1, we get:
PA PB
= 1 d
D
Corporate Tax
45 / 95
Corporate Tax
46 / 95
Corporate Tax
47 / 95
Corporate Tax
48 / 95
Corporate Tax
49 / 95
Corporate Tax
50 / 95
Devereux, Liu, and Loretz (2013) use corporate tax records in the
U.K. to study impacts of taxes on reported profits
Marginal corporate tax rate jumps from 20% to 32% at 300,000
pounds
Study bunching at kink to estimate the elasticity of corporate taxable
income with respect to the tax rate (same method as Saez 2010,
Chetty et al. 2011)
Corporate Tax
51 / 95
Corporate Tax
52 / 95
Cross-Country Comparisons
Djankov et al. (2010) conduct a cross-country analysis of the impacts
of effective corporate tax rate
Measure corporate tax rate for an identical mid-sized firm using a
survey conducted with PriceWaterhouseCoopers
OLS regressions of investment and entrepreneurial activity on
corporate tax rate
Attempt to isolate causal effect using various controls for observables
(e.g., other tax rates, levels of economic development)
Implies substantial effect of taxes on investment: 10 pp increase in
corp tax rate leads to 2 pp decrease in I/GDP
Public Economics Lectures
Corporate Tax
53 / 95
Corporate Tax
54 / 95
Corporate Tax
55 / 95
Corporate Tax
56 / 95
Firms Decision
Organizational
Form
Raise
Capital
S corp or C corp
Debt or
Where to Locate
Indiv. vs.
Corp. tax,
Intl. tax
Production
Payouts
Equity
Investment
Decisions
Pay Dividends
Deduction of
interest
Accelerated
Depreciation
Report Profits
Pay Interest
Div. tax,
Corp. profit
tax
Policy Instruments
Corporate Tax
57 / 95
Corporate Tax
58 / 95
Expensing: subtract the full $1000 from profits in the year you buy
machine
Expensing reduces effective tax rate for firm given interest rate r > 0
Current policy in U.S.: approximate economic depreciation using
linear or exponential rules by asset class
Corporate Tax
59 / 95
Corporate Tax
60 / 95
Corporate Tax
61 / 95
(1 c z)
(1 c )
Right hand side is user cost of capital (Hall and Jorgenson 1967)
User cost c is sufficient to determine investment rule
No need to separately identify effect of r , c , z, etc.
Corporate Tax
62 / 95
Corporate Tax
63 / 95
Corporate Tax
64 / 95
Corporate Tax
65 / 95
Corporate Tax
66 / 95
Corporate Tax
67 / 95
Liquidity Effects
Corporate Tax
68 / 95
Liquidity Effects
Ex: Lamont (1997) studies impact of changes in free cash flow in
conglomerates
Uses shocks to oil prices as an instrument
Oil companies significantly increase investment in non-oil subsidiaries
(relative to others in same industry) when oil prices are high
Corporate Tax
69 / 95
Firms Decision
Organizational
Form
Raise
Capital
S corp or C corp
Debt or
Where to Locate
Indiv. vs.
Corp. tax,
Intl. tax
Production
Payouts
Equity
Investment
Decisions
Pay Dividends
Deduction of
interest
Accelerated
Depreciation
Report Profits
Pay Interest
Div. tax,
Corp. profit
tax
Policy Instruments
Corporate Tax
70 / 95
Corporate Tax
71 / 95
Corporate Tax
72 / 95
Corporate Tax
73 / 95
Neoclassical Explanations
Effective tax rate on equity may not be that much higher than debt
First, cannot deduct interest payments if they exceed current earnings
(but can carry forward)
Altshuler and Auerbach (1991) estimate that average value of interest
deductibility was 32% in practice
Far below statutory corporate rate of 46%
Suggests that constraints on deducting interest payments are binding
for many firms
Marginal value of further debt may not be too high
Corporate Tax
74 / 95
Neoclassical Explanations
Effective tax rate on equity may not be that much higher than debt
Second, could have a Miller (1977) equilibrium
If some investors face 0 tax rates on equity (e.g. pension funds) then
effective tax rate on equity could be low
Clientele effect: pension funds buy shares before they pay dividends
Does not occur fully in practice because we do collect taxes from equity
Corporate Tax
75 / 95
With all of these factors, should still see changes in tax rates on
interest income and corporate profits affecting debt/equity ratio
Corporate Tax
76 / 95
Corporate Tax
77 / 95
Corporate Tax
78 / 95
Corporate Tax
79 / 95
Corporate Tax
80 / 95
Firms Decision
Organizational
Form
Raise
Capital
S corp or C corp
Debt or
Where to Locate
Indiv. vs.
Corp. tax,
Intl. tax
Production
Payouts
Equity
Investment
Decisions
Pay Dividends
Deduction of
interest
Accelerated
Depreciation
Report Profits
Pay Interest
Div. tax,
Corp. profit
tax
Policy Instruments
Corporate Tax
81 / 95
Corporate Tax
82 / 95
Corporate Tax
83 / 95
International Taxation
Another increasingly important dimension of firm organization that
may be distorted by tax policy: location
U.S. has a worldwide tax system
Pay U.S. tax only when you bring money back to the U.S. (e.g., to pay
dividends)
Repatriations taxed on difference between tax rate where profits are
earned and U.S. corporate tax of 35%
Ex: if company makes $100 of profit in Ireland (4% avg corp tax), pay
$31
Corporate Tax
84 / 95
6
8
Percent of total
10
12
14
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Operations of U.S. Parent Companies and their Foreign Affiliates,
various years.
Public Economics Lectures
Corporate Tax
85 / 95
Corporate Tax
86 / 95
Corporate Tax
87 / 95
Corporate Tax
88 / 95
Corporate Tax
89 / 95
Corporate Tax
90 / 95
Corporate Tax
91 / 95
Corporate Tax
92 / 95
Corporate Tax
93 / 95
Corporate Tax
94 / 95
Corporate Tax
95 / 95