HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

30 August, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

VIEW POINT

MAJOR CURRENCY
Prev.
Close
67.059
95.741
1.118
1.307
102.23
67.177

Close
USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR

67.176
95.722
1.117
1.308
102.130
67.177

Chg.

% Chg.

0.118
-0.019
-0.001
0.001
-0.100
0.000

0.18%
-0.02%
-0.08%
0.11%
-0.10%
0.00%

To start with the week, Indian rupee fells to a one-week low against
the US dollar, tracking the losses in its Asian peers after comments
by US Federal Reserve speaker hawkish comment on last Friday
raised the possibility of a September rate hike. Domestic currency
ended at 67.18 per dollar--a level last seen on 22 August, down
0.18% from its previous close of 67.06. The 10-year bond yield
closed at 7.123%, compared with its Friday's close of 7.129%.
Technically, USDINR Sept. future is having resistance at 67.65 and
support at 67.15 with negative bias.

GLOBAL INDICES
Prev.
Close

Close

SGX NIFTY
NIFTY
SENSEX
HANG-SENG
NIKKEI
SHANGHAI
S&P INDEX
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
FTSE
CAC
DAX

RUPEE FELLS FOLLOWING WEAKNESS IN ASIAN CURRENCIES

8680.0
8607.5
27902.7
22949.2
16743.3
3070.0
2180.4
18503.0
5232.3
6838.1
4424.3
10544.4

8655.5
8572.6
27782.3
22821.3
16737.5
3070.0
2169.0
18395.4
5218.9
6816.9
4441.9
10587.8

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY

Chg.

% Chg.

25
35
120
128
6
0
11
108
13
21
-18
-43

0.28%
0.41%
0.43%
0.56%
0.03%
0.00%
0.52%
0.58%
0.26%
0.31%
-0.40%
-0.41%

(Provisional Rs. In Cr)

Segment

26-Aug-16

25-Aug-16

Equity

-305.09

-32.57

Debt

302.22

-367.65

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

RBI Comments In FY 16 Annual Reports: Upside Risks To 5%

March17 Inflation Target
Inflation projections still at upper limit of central banks objective
and room to cut policy rates will emerge only if inflation is projected
to fall further, according to the Reserve Bank of Indias FY16 annual
report. Headline inflation expected to trend toward RBIs 5% goal by
last qtr of current FY, although upside risks to target is prominent:
RBI; impact of pay commission expected to peak by Sept. 2017.
Economic growth, while showing signs of picking up, is still below
levels that the country is capable of, said by central bank.
The Reserve Bank of India today said its balance sheet rose by
12.3% to Rs 3243011 crore for the year ended June 30.
Dollar Erodes Gains After Fed Hawkish Comment

Tuesday morning, the dollar took a breather as investors waited to

see if U.S. employment data later this week would reinforce U.S.
Federal Reserve official's recent hawkish messages. The dollar index,
which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals,
stood at 95.549 , below the previous session's high of 95.834 which
was its highest since Aug. 12.
U.S. economic data on Monday showed consumer spending
increased for a fourth straight month, pointing to a pickup in growth
that could pave the way for the Fed to raise interest rates later this
year. dollar edged down 0.1% to 101.78 yen, moving away from
Monday's high of 102.39, while the euro also inched 0.1% lower to
113.87 yen .

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR SEPT. FUTURE DAILY CHART

Technical Observations

The pair closed above 20 SDMA in Mondays session.

Lower Tops and Lower Bottoms intact on daily chart with immediate resistance of recent top placed at 67.65.

Momentum Oscillators hovering near break even line, signaling consolidation.

Recent bottom of 67.17 and 67.05 are supports, while resistance near term resistance is at 67.65.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS
Aug Month

Last

Pivot

S3

S2

S1

R1

R2

R3

USDINR

67.49

67.47

67.31

67.36

67.43

67.54

67.59

67.65

EURINR

75.46

75.75

74.25

74.85

75.15

76.05

76.65

76.95

GBPINR

88.34

88.49

87.70

88.01

88.18

88.65

88.97

89.13

JPYINR

66.02

66.08

65.35

65.62

65.82

66.29

66.55

66.75

Spot

Wkly
High

Wkly
Low

1-Mth.
High

1-Mth.
Low

52 Wk
High

52 Wk
Low

5 DMA

20 DMA

50 DMA

100 DMA

200 DMA

USDINR

67.06

66.74

67.43

66.67

68.79

64.70

67.09

66.92

67.16

66.98

67.01

EURINR

75.98

74.78

76.15

73.63

77.49

70.24

75.64

75.03

74.91

75.23

74.28

GBPINR

88.09

86.16

89.54

86.16

103.52

86.16

88.43

87.72

89.08

92.85

95.07

JPYINR

67.00

65.96

67.08

62.64

68.11

53.32

66.64

66.23

65.41

63.54

60.57

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open

High

Low

Close

Chg.

Open
Interest

Chg. in OI

Volume

Chg. In
Volume

SPOT USDINR

67.14

67.21

67.14

67.18

0.12

--

--

--

--

USDINR Aug FUT.

67.45

67.52

67.41

67.49

0.11

1867803

459480

1097578

530785

SPOT EURINR

75.18

75.32

75.05

75.09

-0.60

--

--

--

--

EURINR Aug FUT.

75.60

76.34

75.44

75.46

-0.61

70893

6016

77058

60311

SPOT GBPINR

88.20

88.25

87.89

87.92

-0.58

--

--

--

--

GBPINR Aug FUT.

88.75

88.80

88.32

88.34

-0.59

32912

6579

79996

62218

SPOT JPYINR

65.66

65.80

65.61

65.77

-0.99

--

--

--

--

JPYINR Aug FUT.

66.35

66.35

65.88

66.02

-1.02

45180

8393

56923

38832

Currency

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

ECO. DATA RELEASED

Date Time

Country

Event

Period

Survey

Actual

08/29/2016 18:00

US

Personal Income

Jul

0.40%

0.40%

0.30%

08/29/2016 18:00

US

Personal Spending

Jul

0.30%

0.30%

0.50%

08/29/2016 18:00

US

PCE Deflator YoY

Jul

0.80%

0.80%

0.90%

08/29/2016 18:00

US

PCE Core YoY

Jul

1.50%

1.60%

1.60%

08/29/2016 18:00

US

Dallas Fed Mfg. Activity

Jul

-3.90

-6.20

-1.30

ECO. DATA TODAY

Date Time

Country

Event

08/29/2016 08/31

IN

Eight Infrastructure Industries

Jul

--

5.20%

08/30/2016 14:00

UK

Mortgage Approvals

Jul

62.0k

64.8k

08/30/2016 14:30

EC

Consumer Confidence

-8.5

-8.5

08/30/2016 19:30

US

Consumer Confidence Index

97

97.3

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Period

Aug F
Aug

Survey

Prior

Prior

Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)

Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com
Disclosure:
I/We, Dilip Parmar and Vinay Rajani, MBA, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my views about the subject issuer (s) or securities. I also certify that no part of our
compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in his report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject instrument at the end of
the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any position in Instruments NO
Disclaimer:
This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information
obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or
correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not
intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments.
This report is not directed to, or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other
jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject HDFC Securities Ltd or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement
within such jurisdiction.
If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or
published for any purposes without prior written approval of HDFC Securities Ltd.
Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, investors in
securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk.
It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. HDFC Securities Ltd may from time to time solicit from, or perform broking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this
mail and/or its attachments.
HDFC Securities and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of the company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be
engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or
lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.
HDFC Securities Ltd, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report,
including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc.
HDFC Securities Ltd and other group companies, its directors, associates, employees may have various positions in any of the stocks, securities and financial instruments dealt in the report, or may make sell or purchase or
other deals in these securities from time to time or may deal in other securities of the companies / organizations described in this report.
HDFC Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve
months.
HDFC Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing
or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction in the normal course of business.
HDFC Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither HDFC
Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or
brokerage service transactions. HDFC Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.
Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any
compensation/benefits from the Subject Company or third party in connection with the Research Report.
This report has been prepared by the PCG team of HDFC Securities Ltd. The views, opinions, estimates, ratings, target price, entry prices and/or other parameters mentioned in this document may or may not match or may
be contrary with those of the other Research teams (Institutional, Retail) of HDFC Securities Ltd.
"HDFC Securities Ltd. is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]