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MAJOR CURRENCY
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USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR
67.319
93.536
1.133
1.467
104.020
67.700
Prev.
Close
67.085
94.206
1.128
1.436
104.16
67.168
Chg.
0.234
-0.670
0.005
0.031
-0.140
0.532
% Chg.
0.35%
-0.71%
0.48%
2.14%
-0.13%
0.79%
Prev.
Close
Close
8242.0
8238.5
26866.9
20579.1
16046.6
2900.2
2083.3
17804.9
4837.2
6204.0
4340.8
9962.0
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY
Segment
The rupee pared its initial losses, but was still closed down by
0.35% at 67.32 against the US currency, having hit 67.69 to the
dollar earlier in the session, its weakest level since May 24, after
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan said no to a second term in the post.
Meanwhile, Indias 10-year bond yield closed lower for the fifth
consecutive session at 7.496%, compared with Fridays close of
7.502%.
The loss was recouped on talk of central bank sold dollar through
public sector bank to stem the currencys fall and volatility.
GLOBAL INDICES
SGX NIFTY
NIFTY
SENSEX
HANG-SENG
NIKKEI
SHANGHAI
S&P INDEX
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
FTSE
CAC
DAX
8242.5
8170.2
26625.9
20510.2
15965.3
2888.8
2071.2
17675.2
4800.3
6021.1
4193.8
9631.4
Chg.
-1
68
241
69
81
11
12
130
37
183
147
331
% Chg.
-0.01%
0.84%
0.91%
0.34%
0.51%
0.39%
0.58%
0.73%
0.77%
3.04%
3.50%
3.43%
17-Jun-16
16-Jun-16
Jun 16
EQUITY
-104.59
-78.33
4174.45
DEBT
144.44
203.44
-2168.67
The home currency may start weaker today on dollar demand from
importers and foreign fund outflow. FII sold worth Rs. 2107 Cr. in
derivative and Rs. 385.60 Cr. in domestic equity market on 20th
June, as per the exchange provisional figures. The one month
forward USDINR last quoted at 67.47 up from yesterdays 67.35 at
5pm. In near term, USDINR June future is having resistance at
67.865 and support at 66.72.
On overseas market, the dollar fell against a basket of major
currencies, dropped to 93.449, its lowest in more than two weeks.
It was last down 0.6% at 93.654.
Meanwhile, investors also prepared for Federal Reserve Chairwoman
Janet Yellens semiannual monetary policy report to Congress, which
begins today. Investors will look for hints on the Feds future plans
for interest-rate increases in Ms. Yellens comments.
Pound Jumps most since 2008 as "Remain" Recollects Lead in
Polls
The pound posted its biggest one-day rise for almost eight as
traders reacted to an apparent shift in support towards a remain
vote in Thursdays EU referendum. The currency rose more than 2%
against both the US dollar and the euro. Sterling rose to a global
session high of $1.4707, nearly a three-seek peak, as it extended a
recovery from Thursday's more than two-month trough of $1.4013.
Last it up 2.3% at $1.4688, its largest one-day rise since Dec.
15, 2008.
The rallies came as Betfair, the online gambling site, said the implied probability of the UK remaining in the EU had risen to about
78%, up from 60 to 67% on Friday. A one-week gauge of implied volatility for the pound versus the dollar dropped to 39.5 percent
from a record close of 47.87 percent in the previous session.
The sharp move in the pound against the dollar also reflected receding expectations of a near-term interest rate rise from the US
central bank, especially following remarks from a key policymaker last week.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR June Future Daily Chart
Strong support for the pair is seen at 66.72, which happened to be the previous bottom while previous top 67.8650 act as
resistance in near term.
Near term bias for the pair remains upward with higher side expectation of 67.865.
TECHNICAL LEVELS
JUNE Month
Last
Exp. Open*
Range
S2
S1
R1
R2
USDINR
67.40
67.50
Bullish
67.65-67.30
67.08
67.24
67.67
67.94
75.23
75.83
77.06
77.69
EURINR
76.43
76.55
Bullish
76.85-76.25
GBPINR
98.67
98.99
Bullish
99.10-98.50
97.85
98.26
99.03
99.38
JPYINR
64.43
64.80
Bullish
65.10-66.50
64.04
64.23
64.71
64.99
Spot
Wkly
High
Wkly
Low
1-Mth.
High
1-Mth.
Low
52 Wk
High
52 Wk
Low
5 DMA
20 DMA
50 DMA
100 DMA
200 DMA
USDINR
67.34
66.98
67.76
66.54
68.79
63.31
67.22
67.14
66.85
67.22
66.66
EURINR
75.97
75.09
76.92
74.54
77.49
68.74
75.60
75.44
75.58
75.22
74.07
GBPINR
96.11
94.69
99.21
94.69
105.28
93.34
95.98
97.09
96.61
96.31
97.92
JPYINR
64.91
62.82
64.91
60.30
64.91
51.06
64.01
62.33
61.67
60.62
57.80
CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open
High
Low
Close
Chg.
Open
Interest
Chg.
Volume
Chg.
SPOT USDINR
67.69
67.69
67.29
67.32
0.23
--
--
--
--
67.71
67.79
67.36
67.40
0.22
1808346
263635
2541526
1544984
SPOT EURINR
76.55
76.92
76.21
76.27
0.74
--
--
--
--
75.86
77.09
75.86
76.43
0.73
41943
3363
114415
61485
SPOT GBPINR
97.86
98.94
97.86
98.53
2.71
--
--
--
--
98.41
98.97
98.21
98.67
2.71
31646
-11044
215903
60952
SPOT JPYINR
64.13
64.72
64.09
64.51
0.18
--
--
--
--
64.58
64.79
64.32
64.43
0.01
52722
214
40865
1951
Currency
363
400
206
10
22
110
137
13
2
50
34
35
47
60
100
72
150
0
66.00
66.50
67.00
67.50
CALL
68.00
68.50
Volume
69.00
IV
PUT
Strike
Price
LTP
LTP
IV
-44920
73977
4.23
0.915
66.50
0.02
436
2194
5.86
0.7
66.75
0.055
30756 122124
6.64
0.52
67.00
-4034
25283
7.00
0.3675
67.25
16403 223103
Volume OI Chg.
6.31 249760
6.68
-38247
75664
24330
0.1325
7.42 206054
-1972
0.2275
7.62
49909
-1465
8.05 132976
15123
7.63
0.2625
67.50
0.365
37442
8.17
0.185
67.75
0.5325
8.50
5373
642
10438 210088
8.37
0.12
68.00
0.72
8.85
46074
-25058
0.93
9.34
305
1.17 10.61
5578
156
200
15
250
215
300
227
268
286
264
350
154
Thousands
USDINR OI DISTRIBUTION
3021
12883
8.13
0.065
68.25
-19097
83976
9.33
0.0575
68.50
665
283
516
3751
9.79
0.04
68.75
1.3675
9.39
-3510
37895
9.29
0.0175
69.00
1.6375 12.01
25
-3
TOTAL OI
1535200
1351501
PUT
Prior
9.4b
JN
Trade Balance
May
70.0b
-40.7b
823.2b
Jun
--
EC
Apr
--
-0.40%
0.50%
Jun
-10
Date Time
Country
Event
Period
06/21/2016 14:00
UK
May
06/21/2016 14:30
EC
06/21/2016 15:30
UK
Survey
Date Time
Prior
-8
Country
Event
Period
Survey
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com
Disclosure:
I/We, Dilip Parmar and Vinay Rajani, MBA, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my views about the subject issuer (s) or securities. I also certify that no part of our
compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in his report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject instrument at the end of
the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any position in Instruments NO
Disclaimer:
This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information
obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or
correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not
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If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or
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Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, investors in
securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk.
It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. HDFC Securities Ltd may from time to time solicit from, or perform broking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this
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HDFC Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing
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HDFC Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither HDFC
Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or
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compensation/benefits from the Subject Company or third party in connection with the Research Report.
This report has been prepared by the PCG team of HDFC Securities Ltd. The views, opinions, estimates, ratings, target price, entry prices and/or other parameters mentioned in this document may or may not match or may
be contrary with those of the other Research teams (Institutional, Retail) of HDFC Securities Ltd.
"HDFC Securities Ltd. is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.