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Fisheries Research
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/fishres
Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence, P.O. Box 937, Cairns, QLD 4870, Australia
James Cook University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, P.O. Box 6811, Cairns, QLD 4870, Australia
a r t i c l e
i n f o
Article history:
Received 20 February 2009
Received in revised form 1 May 2009
Accepted 4 May 2009
Keywords:
Decadal
Fisheries
Barramundi
Management
Sustainable
a b s t r a c t
Signicant relationships between long-term climate indices such as the Interdecadal Pacic Oscillation
and sheries catch have been shown for a number of oceanic species such as herring, cod, sardine and
anchovy that are dependant on oceanic upwelling for food chain nutrients. However, there are no similar
studies between long-term climate cycles and estuarine species. In this study, barramundi (Lates calcarifer)
landings as recorded by the Fish Board across north-east Queensland were found to be signicantly
correlated with an index of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation at lags of three to four years and the latitude
of the sub-tropical ridge one to four years prior to catch. These results indicate that long-term climate
cycles may affect the early life cycle stages of the species by inuencing climate variables such as rainfall,
stream ow and temperature and hence nutrient availability and nursery habitat suitability. Signicant
relationships between long-term climate cycles and barramundi catch may provide an opportunity to
predict catch a number of years in advance.
2009 Published by Elsevier B.V.
1. Introduction
Analyses of long-term (intra- and inter-decadal) climate variations and the concurrent uctuations in sheries populations as
measured by catch, can identify causal links and so provide an
opportunity to forecast catch a number of years in advance. Decadal
climate oscillations in the Pacic Ocean such as the Interdecadal
Pacic Oscillation (IPO) and Pacic Interdecadal Oscillation (PDO),
have been shown to have large-scale impacts on some of the pelagic
sheries of the world including the Norwegian and Icelandic herring, Norwegian cod and Peruvian anchovy (e.g. Klyashtorin, 1998).
In fact, it is now proposed that the whole ecosystem balance of the
Pacic Basin oscillates between an anchovy regime and a sardine regime every 50 years or so in response to these multi-decadal
climate cycles, a phenomena that appears to have occurred for hundreds of years (Chavez et al., 2003; Sandweiss et al., 2004). Although
a number of similar relationships have been found for a variety of
pelagic sheries, few studies have linked inshore, and more particularly, catadromous and anadromous sheries with long-term
climate cycles.
One study of variations in the catch of anadromous salmon
(Chinook, Sockeye and Pink salmon) in Oregon, California, Alaska
and Washington found a signicant relationship with the IPO
Present address: P.O. Box 48, Glenside, SA 5065, Australia. Tel.: +61 8 83385815;
mobile: +61 488010466.
E-mail address: jacqueline.balston@jbalston.com.
0165-7836/$ see front matter 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V.
doi:10.1016/j.shres.2009.05.001
84
Fig. 1. Conceptual model of north-east Queensland barramundi life cycle and climate inuences (Balston and Williams, 2005).
85
Fig. 2. North-east Queensland study region. The centres that have Fish Board data
used in the analysis are shown (adapted from the Queensland Fisheries Service.
CHRIS website, October 2006). The study region includes estuarine and inshore areas
to the east of the dashed line.
years are not recorded and have included amendments to catch regulations, habitat degradation (including the draining of wetlands
for sugar cane and urban expansion), and changes to sher access
(introduction of green zones, marine national parks and sheries
Fig. 3. Total commercial nancial year (July 1June 30) catch of barramundi for north-east Queensland as recorded by the Queensland Fish Board. Data includes catch from the
Townsville, Mackay, Port Curtis, and Burnett areas for the years 1945/461980/81. Catch in the Cairns region for the years 1970/711980/81 is excluded due to an unquantied
inux of sh sold into the area that were caught in the Gulf of Carpentaria over those years.
86
87
Table 1
Pearson correlation coefcient (r) matrix of Fish Board barramundi landings across north-east Queensland for each area and the total study region. Correlations signicant at
the p < 0.05** level and at the p < 0.10* level.
Area landings
Burnett
Cairns
Fitzroy
Mackay
Port Curtis
Townsville
Total
Burnett
Cairns
Fitzroy
Mackay
Port Curtis
Townsville
Total
1.00
0.18
0.15
0.35**
0.16
0.17
0.27
1.00
0.26
0.22
0.09
0.07
0.37*
1.00
0.65**
0.24
0.18
0.78**
1.00
0.34**
0.26
0.67**
1.00
0.12
0.29*
1.00
0.68**
1.00
Table 2
Pearson correlation coefcient (r) between long-term climate indices and Fish Board barramundi landings for north-east Queensland (zerove year lag). Correlations
signicant at the p < 0.05** level and at the p < 0.10* level.
Variable
Year of catch
1 year lag
2 year lag
3 year lag
4 year lag
5 year lag
IPO
QBO
SAM
L-index
0.23
0.08
0.06
0.25
0.17
0.22
0.05
0.45**
0.16
0.32
0.13
0.48**
0.24
0.40*
0.18
0.52**
0.18
0.42**
0.28
0.41**
0.11
0.24
0.16
0.32
areas except the Burnett in the far south which showed the lowest
catch of all the areas (Table 1).
3.2. Regression analysis
The results of the regression analysis between annual total Fish
Board landings and long-term climate indices for lags of up to ve
years (Table 2) showed a signicant negative correlation between
catch and the QBO at a lag of three and four years, and a signicant positive correlation with the L-index at a lag of one through
to four years. Neither the SAM nor the IPO showed any signicant
correlations with Fish Board landing for lags of up to ve years.
4. Discussion
Evidence of a causal link between long-term climate variables
and total barramundi catch across north-east Queensland may provide sheries managers with the opportunity to predict regional
catch a number of years in advance, and so improve the capacity to sustainably harvest the resource. This study considered the
relationship between four long-term climate patterns in the Australia region and the catch of commercial barramundi in north-east
Queensland. The signicant correlation between total catch for
north-east Queensland and catch from each individual area along
the coast (except the Burnett which had the lowest catch of all the
areas) suggests that there are coherent variations in catch across
the study region. This result would suggest that large scale changes
in the region have inuenced the shery.
The relationship between the IPO and total Fish Board catch
was not signicant at any of the lags tested. Previous studies have
shown the IPO to drive synchronous, large-scale variations in northern hemisphere pelagic shery catch (e.g. Klyashtorin, 1998). In
most cases changes in catch have been the result of basin scale
changes in winds, upwelling, primary production and nutrient
levels (see review by Chavez et al., 2003; Ottersen et al., 2001).
Such oceanic changes are stronger in the northern hemisphere
and regions adjacent to the South Pacic Convergence Zone in the
southern hemisphere, and less along the north-east coast of Australia and so may not affect inshore areas (Folland et al., 1998).
In addition, the estuarine barramundi species is not dependant on
nutrient from oceanic upwelling, and instead catch has been linked
to freshwater runoff from terrestrial streams. As the period of Fish
Board data (1945/461980/81) corresponds almost entirely with a
negative phase of the IPO when the relationship with cyclones off
the coast of north-east Queensland is not signicant (as opposed
to the positive phase of the IPO) (Grant and Walsh, 2001), a significant relationship based on ood events and a resultant boost to
estuarine nutrient levels and primary production is not expected.
Correlations between total barramundi catch and the SAM were
positive for all but the year of catch but again not signicant. The
life cycle model suggests that wetter conditions and enhancement
of nursery habitats would be linked to the positive values of the
SAM across the north-east Queensland region. The variable used
in this analysis was the average SAM for the full nancial year as
connections with tropical climatology are as yet unclear (Sturman
and Tapper, 1996) and so may not identify critical effects from the
climate system that occur at shorter time periods.
Each of the signicant correlations between catch and long-term
climate variables occurred at a lag of one or more years, a nding
that suggests that the effect from long-term climate variability is
strongest on early life cycle stages of the sh and less so on catchability. Correlations between catch and the QBO were negative and
signicant at a lag of three and four years when most barramundi
are ngerlings or juveniles in the nursery areas. An increase in the
frequency of intense cyclones in the south-west Pacic Ocean (near
Australia) is seen during westerly phases of the QBO (positive values
of the QBO index) and so a negative correlation with catch three or
four years later would suggest that the effect of cyclones on early
barramundi life cycle stages is destructive. Results from an analysis of the impacts of short-term climate variability and extreme
threshold events on the commercial barramundi shery of Princess
Charlotte Bay in north-east Queensland (Balston, 2007) indicated
that increased wet season rainfall and ow had a likely positive
effect on survival of young-of-year sh and subsequent catch, but
that extreme pre-wet season rainfall and early dry season ow negatively affected survival of sh and reduced subsequent catch, a
result that would concur with the negative correlation identied
in this study. A strong relationship between the JanuaryFebruary
QBO and the LSTR has been noted in some studies (e.g. Salby and
Callaghan, 2000). However, the correlation matrix of all the longterm climate indices used in this analysis did not show a signicant
correlation between the QBO and L-index variables for the years in
this study.
The strongest and most consistent correlations (positive) were
between barramundi catch and the L-index. High values of the Lindex indicate that the high pressure belt is anomalously south, a
pattern that tends to generate increased rainfall along the northeast coast. Correlations were highest at a lag of three years, when
sh are likely to be spawning and in their early life cycle stages
(Balston, 2007). The signicant correlation at one, two and four
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