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Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Working Paper
11-020
VentureCapitalInvestmentintheCleanEnergySector
ShikharGhoshandRamanaNanda
August1,2010
1. Introduction
Venturecapitalhasbeenakeysourceoffinanceforcommercializingradicalinnovationsinthe
UnitedStates,particularlyoverthelastthreedecades.Theemergenceofnewindustriessuch
assemiconductors,biotechnologyandtheinternet,aswellastheintroductionofseveral
innovationsacrossaspectrumofsectorsinhealthcare,ITandnewmaterialshavebeendriven
inlargepartbytheavailabilityofventurecapitalfornewstartups.Unlikeotherformsof
externalfinance,akeyaspectofventurecapitalisthatitfacilitatestheprovisionoffundingto
startupfirmsdespitethehugerisksassociatedwithunproventechnologies(Gompersand
Lerner1999).Sincestartupswithnewtechnologiesrarelyhaveinternalcashflowtodraw
uponandaretooriskytogetdebtfinance,theydependcriticallyontheprovisionofventure
capitalfortheirsurvival.
Inthischapter,weexaminetheextenttowhichventurecapitalisadequatelypositionedforthe
rapidcommercializationofcleanenergytechnologiesintheUnitedStates.Theneedfora
revolutionincleanenergyisdrivennotjustbyenvironmentalconsequencesofenergyuse,but
alsobytheneedforenergysecurity,toaddressgrowingconcernsaboutacrisisinthebalance
ofpayments,andasapotentiallyimportantsourceofdomesticjobs.Ourpremiseinthis
chapteristhatakeyaspectofsuchwidespreadchangeisthattheseissuescannotbesolved
byasingletechnology.Rather,technologicalchangeswillhavetobepervasiveandwillrequire
awholerangeofdifferentproductsandprocessestocometomarket.Someofthe
technologicalprogresswillcomefromincrementalinnovationsthatdonotdependonventure
capital.Forexample,thelargescaledeploymentofmorematuretechnologiessuchaswind
farmsorutilityscalesolarisfundedthroughprojectfinance.Moreover,firmsmanufacturing
thewindturbinesandsolarmodulesareabletofundtheirgrowththroughdebtorthestock
market.Othersolutionssuchasretrofittinghomesandofficespaceswithmoreenergyefficient
materialscanbefundedthroughbankfinance.
However,arangeofnewstartupsintheenergyproduction,transportation,energystorageand
energyefficiencysubsectorsdependcriticallyonventurecapitalfortheircommercialization
1
becausetheirtechnologiesandbusinessmodelsarenotyetproven.ItistheVCfundingof
theseprojectsandthepotentialchallengestherein,thatisthefocusofthischapter.1
Wedocumentarangeoffactorsaboutthesecleantechnologystartupsthatmakethemmuch
morechallengingfromaninvestmentstandpointthanthetypicalinvestmentmadebyVCfirms.
ThesechallengeshavebeguntoimpactthefocusofVCinvestmentsincleanenergyandare
likelytocontinuedoingsointhenearfuture.Inparticular,VCinvestmentshavebeguntomove
awayfromradicaltechnologiesrelatedtoenergyproductionandareincreasinglyfocusedon
energyefficiency,software,energystorageandtransportation.Startupsintheselattersectors
tendtobeclosertothetraditionalinvestmentsVCsmake,intermsoftheircapitalintensity,
exitrequirementsandbusinessmodels.Evenforinvestmentsinenergyproduction,VCshave
begunshiftingthebusinessmodelsoftheirportfoliocompaniestowardscomponent
manufacturingthatismuchclosertotheirtraditionalfocusandexpertisethantheskills
requiredtobuildenergyproductioncompanies.Inthelongterm,sustainedventure
investmentinstartupsfocusedonenergyproductionwilldependontheabilityofventure
capitaliststofindworkablesolutionstotheinvestmenthurdlestheyface.Wehighlight,based
onhistoricalevidence,thatovercomingsuchhurdlescantakeasignificantamountoftimeand
isnotguaranteedtosucceed.
AkeyattributeoftheventurebackedinnovationintheUShasbeentheabilityoftheprivate
capitalmarketstofinanceawidevarietyofapproachesinaspecificarea,asopposedto
choosingwinnersearly.Sinceventurecapitalistheprimarysourceofriskcapitalavailableto
cleanenergystartupsintheUS,thechangingfocusofVCinvestmentincleanenergycanhave
importantconsequencesforthenatureofUSinnovationinthisspace(KortumandLerner
2000).Inthelongterm,itcouldimplythatthelocusofinnovationinenergyproductionmay
moveawayfromtheUStoEuropeortoChina,drivenbythemoreaggressivegovernment
policiesinthoseregionsaimedatpromotingprivateinvestmentincleanenergyproduction.We
thereforealsohighlightUSgovernmentpoliciesthatmayhelptomitigatethechallengesfaced
byVCs,aswellasacceleratetheinstitutionalizationofventureinvestmentinthecleanenergy
space.
Ouranalysisisbasedonbothaquantitativestudyofrecentventurecapitaldeals,aswell
discussionswithseveralleadingventurecapitalinvestors.Insomecases,VCswespoketohad
Thisdoesnotinanywayimplythattheothersourcesofinnovationareunimportantorthattheotherformsof
financeforthesesectorsdonotfacetheirsetofchallenges.Theyaresimplyoutsidethescopeofthischapter.
Likewise,wedonottakeapositionontherelativeimportanceofincrementalvs.radicalinnovationsfortheUSto
focuson.Wetakeasgiventhatbotharenecessary,andgiventhis,examinethehurdlesfacingtheventurecapital
communityincommercializingradicalinnovationsincleantechnology.
madeinitialinvestmentsinthesector,butsubsequentlydecidedtocurtailtheirinvestments
becauseofactualorperceiveddifficultiesinmakingadequatereturns.Wealsospokewith
activeVCinvestorswhohadchosennottoinvestin(certaintypesof)cleanenergystartups.As
such,ouranalysisisalsoforwardlookingintermsoftheexpectationsthattheseindividuals
haveaboutVCinvestmentinthissectorgoingforward.
Toputthechallengeswenoteincontext,wefirstoutlinetheprocessesthatVCfirmshave
developedtomakethemuniquelyqualifiedtofosterinnovationinanuncertainenvironment.
InSections3and4weshowhowtheseprocessesarepoorlysuitedtofundingcertaintypesof
cleanenergystartups.Section5outlinessomepossiblesolutionstothechallenges,including
theroleofgovernmentpolicy.Section6hasconclusions.
2. DistinguishingFeaturesofVentureCapitalInvestments
2.1PortfolioStrategy
Akeydifferencebetweenventurecapital(VC)andothersourcesoffinanceisthatVCfirmstend
tofocusoninvestmentsthatfacesubstantialtechnologyrisk.Moreover,thetechnologyriskis
notresolveduntiltheVCshavemadesignificantinvestmentsinthestartup,whichmeansthat
VCsmayhaveinvestedsizeablesumsofmoneybeforeitendsupbeingafailure.Together,
thesefeaturesleadtoahighlyskeweddistributionofreturnsinventurecapitalistsportfolios.
Figure1documentsanexampleoftheseskewedreturnsforaleadingVCfirm.Ascanbeseen
fromFigure1,8%ofthedollarsinvestedbythisVCfirmaccountedforover70%oftheoverall
returnsoftheportfolio.Ontheotherhand,60%ofthedollarsinvestedwerespentonprojects
thatwereultimatelyterminatedbelowthecostoftheinvestment,andhencecontributedto
under4%ofthereturnsoftheportfolio.2Itisimportanttonotethatatthetimeoftheinitial
investment,ofcourse,alltheirinvestmentshadthepotentialtorealizeexceptionalreturns.
Indeed,giventhehighchanceoffailure,VCswillnotinvestinprojectsthatdonothavethe
potentialtobewinners.Theyjustdonotknowwhichoftheirinvestmentswillendupas
winnersandwhichoneswillendupbeingfailures.Putdifferently,thereturndistributionfor
VCslookslikethatinFigure1inexpectation,eventhougheachindividualinvestmentismade
withthebeliefthatitcouldbeawinner.
Dataonventurecapitalinvestmentstendstobeprivatesothatalargescaleanalysisisdifficulttodocument.
Moreoverfundswithinvestmentsprimarilyinsoftwarehavesomewhatdifferentreturnprofilesthanthosein
morecapitalintensivesectorssuchasbiotechnology.However,discussionswithinvestorsrevealthatskewed
distributionshighlightedinFigure1areacommonfeatureinventureportfolios,evenforthebestventurefunds.
Figure1:BreakdownofaTier1VCsPortfolio
70.0%
63.2%
60.0%
50.0%
61.7%
40.0%
30.0%
20.5%
20.0%
13.6%
11.6%
9.2%
8.7%
10.0%
3.8%
3.3%
4.3%
0.0%
<1X
1X to 3X
3X to 6X
Multiple on Invested Capital
% of Cost
6X to 10X
>10X
% of Value
Source:AnalysisbyProfessorWilliamSahlman,basedon468Investmentsforthefundfrom19902006
Animportantfacetoftheventurecapitalistsinvestmentprocessthereforeinvolvesalarge
enoughnumberofinvestmentsintheportfoliosothatthechanceofapositivetailoutcome
intheportfolioincreases.Itthereforefollowsthatanyindividualinvestmentcannotbetoo
capitalintensiverelativetothesizeofthefund.Infact,mostfundshaveformalrestrictions
thatconstraintheamountofcapitalthattheVCfirmcaninvestinasingleproject.Figure2
showswhattheplannedinvestmentslooklikeforatypical$300Mventurefund.Ithighlights
thefactthatsinceVCsplantoonlymakemoneyfromhalfoftheirinvestments,theyneedafew
oftheirinvestmentstodoverywellaswellasownareasonableshareofthosefirmsatexit,in
orderfortheVCtogeneratestrongdollarreturns.
Figure2:ExampleofProFormashownbyVCstotheirinvestors
CategoryofOutcome
Projected
ValueatExit
Total$
invested
Total$
Return
EarlyFailure
$5M
n/a
$25M
Completewriteoff
$815M
n/a
$55M
Moneyback
$50M
$815M
20%
$55M
$50M
Successfulexit(low)
$200M
$815M
20%
$55M
$200M
Successfulexit(medium)
$350M
$815M
20%
$55M
$350M
Successfulexit(high)
$500M
$815M
20%
$55M
$500M
Total
$300M
$1,100M
Source:AuthorsanalysisbasedondiscussionswithVCs
VCsareoftenmostcomfortableinvestinginlesscapitalintensivesectors,and/orfocusearlyin
thestageofthefirmslifecyclewherethecapitalneedsaresmaller,inordertohavealower
overallinvestmentinthefirm,whilestillretainingalargeshareofequity.Thisisoutlinedin
Figure3below.Figure3showsthatVCsfocusontheprecommercialstagesofthefirmslife
cycle,anduptillthepointwherecommercialviabilityhasbeenestablished.Atthispoint,they
oftenexittheirinvestment,eitherthroughasaletoestablishedcompaniesinthesector,or
throughthepublicequitymarkets.3
SinceindividualVCfirmshavelimitsonhowmuchtheycaninvestinagivenportfoliocompany,theyneedto
havesomeassurancethattheprojectcanbehandedovertoanotherinvestorifthethesefinancinglimitshave
beenreachedbutthestartuphasnotyetachievedanIPOorsale(NandaandRhodesKropf2010).Thus,even
withintheprecommercialstageofthefirmslifecycle,VCfirmsspecializeinsomewhatdifferentsubstages,with
someinvestorsfocusingonseedandearlystageinvestments,whileothercominginathighervaluationsafterthe
initialriskhasbeenminimizedbutpriortoestablishingcommercialviability.
Figure3:StageofVCInvestments
Basic &
Applied
Research
Establishing
Commercial
Viability
Large-Scale
Deployment
Universities,
Government
Venture Capital
2.2Governance
Theskillsrequiredtorunearlystagecompaniesareverydifferentfromthoserequiredto
managelargecorporations.Asecondimportantaspectofventurecapitalisthereforethesetof
skillsandcontactsVCinvestorsbringtobearontheirinvestments.Byensuringthatthestartup
ismakingprogressasexpectedandhelpingtoremoveroadblocks,VCsreducetheoperational
riskofthestartupandincreaseitschancesofsuccess.ThegovernanceprovidedbyVC
investorsisthusakeyattributeofventurecapitalcomparedtoothersourcesoffinanceandis
alsobelievedtobeasourceofcompetitiveadvantageacrossventurecapitalinvestors(Hsu
2004;KaplanandSchoar2005;Sorensen2007).
AlthoughVCsplayanimportantroleingovernancethroughtheirpositionsontheboardof
portfoliocompanies,thedaytodaymanagementinthefirmstillrequiresanableCEO.This
impliesthatakeyelementinthesuccessofaVCinvestmentisthequalityandtrackrecordof
theentrepreneurswhowillrunthecompany.VCsthuslookforentrepreneurswithboth
industryexperienceandpriorhistoryofworkinginstartups,sothattheycansuccessfully
manageandgrowthecompanytoapointwhereitexits.Infact,akeyassetofsuccessfulVCsis
theirstablenetworkofmanagementtalentthatcanbebroughtintosupportanopportunity
thatisoutsidethescopeofthecurrentmanagement(HellmanandPuri,2002).
2.3Contracts
Despitethefocusonselectinggoodteamsandgovernance,manyVCinvestmentsfaildueto
thehightechnologyrisk.VCsthereforestructuretheirinvestmentsusingcontractssuchas
convertiblepreferredstockthatgivesthemsomemeasureofdownsideprotectioninthe
eventthattheinvestmentfails,whilestillgivingthemachancetoshareintheupsideifthefirm
succeeds(GompersandLerner1999;KaplanandStromberg2003).VCsalsostagetheir
investments,givingthefirmenoughcapitaltoreachitsnextmilestone,butmakethenext
roundoffundingcontingentontheprogressmadebythefirmupuntilthatpoint(Gompers
1995).Sincealargenumberoftheirinvestmentswillfailafterdemonstratingearlypotential,
VCsonlymakefollowoninvestmentsforfirmsthatcontinuetolookpromisingateachstage,
therebyfocusingtheircapitalandtimeonthepotentialsuccesses,asopposedtodividingit
equallyacrossallfirms.
VCfundsarestructuredtohavealifeof10years.Sincethemanagingpartnerscompensation
isbasedonamanagementfee(typically2%ofthecommittedcapital)andabonusforastrong
returnaboveahurdlerateofreturn(knownascarriedinterest,andtypically20%oftheexcess
return),VCsliketoexittheirinvestmentwellwithinthe10yearperiod.Thisallowsthemto
establishacleartrackrecordwiththeirowninvestorsandhenceraiseafollowonfundbythe
timeinvestmentsinthepriorfundarebeingharvested.VCsthereforehaveabiastowards
investinginprojectswherethecommercialviabilityisestablishedwithinathreetofiveyear
period,sothattheycanexitthroughanacquisitionorthroughanIPOwithinthelifeofafund
(GompersandLerner1999).
LookingatFigure4,itcanbeseenthatthesweetspotforventurecapitalinvestmentis
thereforeinthelowerrighthandboxthatistypifiedbyhightechnologyrisk,butlowcapital
intensity(KerrandNanda2010).VCshavehonedtheartofinvestingintechnologicallyrisky
projects,butthefactthattheyneedtomakemanyinvestmentstorealizeafewsuccesses
impliestheytypicallyinvestunder$1015Minequityperstartup.SectorssuchasITand
software,thathaverelativelylowlevelsofcapitalinvestment,areidealsectorsforVCs,wherea
syndicateoftwotothreeinvestorscancompletelyfundastartupthroughtoIPO.Inadditionto
theirlowercapitalrequirements,thesesectorshaveshortersalescyclesthatgenerate
commercialviabilityquickly,henceenablingVCstoquicklygrowtheirportfoliocompanies
throughthefirstthreestagesoutlinedinFigure3,andexittheirinvestmentsinashorterperiod
oftime.Infact,thehighreturnsforseveralofthemostsuccessfulVCfirmsarebasedtheir
InternetandITinvestments.AclassicexampleisthatofGoogle,thathadanIPO5yearsafterit
receiveditsfirstroundofVCfundingandhavingraisedabout$40Minventurecapital.
Figure4:FocusofVCinvestments
capitalintensityofproject
high
Project Finance /
Existing Firms
Bank Debt /
Existing Firms
low
Hard to Fund
(Valley of Death)
Venture Capital
TechnologyRisk
high
3. VentureCapitalInvestmentsinCleanEnergy
Venturecapitalfundingofcleanenergystartupshasgrowndramaticallyinabsolutetermsover
thelastdecade.4In2002,only43cleanenergystartupsreceivedVCfundingintheUS,raisinga
combinedtotalof$230M.In2008,over200startupsraised$4.1BNinventurecapitalinthe
US.5Infact,cleanenergyinvestmentsaccountedforabout15%ofthetotaldollarsinvestedby
VCsintheUSin2008.
Despitethisgrowinginterestinthesector,thenumberofventurecapitalfirmswithastrong
focusoncleanenergyremainssmall.Lessthan30USVCshaveasubstantialportionoftheir
portfoliotargetedtowardscleanenergyinvestments.Thisimpliesthataconcentratedsetof
investorsmakethemajorityoftheinvestments.Forexample,in2008and2009,thetop5VC
Giventhatventurecapitalisfocusedonearlystageandlesscapitalintensiveinvestments,itnecessarily
constitutesasmallfractionofthetotalprivatecapitalinvestedinanysector.Thisisequallytrueofcleanenergy,
wherelessthan5%ofthe$500BNinnewinvestmentfrom20072009wasVentureCapitalandPrivateEquity
investment.(CalculationsbasedondatafromNewEnergyFinance.)
5
Source:ErnstandYoung,NationalVentureCapitalAssociationPressReleases.
investorsincleanenergyaccountedforabout25%ofallthecleanenergydealsdonebyVCsin
theUS.6
Figure5:SubSectorswithinCleanEnergy
capitalintensityofproject
high
Wind farms
Utility-scale solar
First-gen biofuel refineries
Fabs for solar cells using
established technologies
low
TechnologyRisk
high
Figure5describesthecleanenergyinvestmentlandscape,mappedontotheframework
outlinedinFigure4.Thetoplefthandboxoutlinesthemanufactureanddeploymentofmore
matureenergyproductiontechnologies.Thetechnologyriskfortheseisminimalafterthe
equipmenthasbeencommerciallyprovenatscale,butyetisextremelyexpensivetofinance.
Sinceraisinghundredsofmillionsofdollarsofequityfinanceisextremelydilutivetoprivate
manufacturersanddevelopers,theywouldprefertoraisedebtfinancefortheselargecapital
investments.Indeed,debtinvestorsarewillingtoinvestlargesumsofmoneyonce
technologieshavebeentriedandtestedoveraperiodofafewyears.Forexample,over50%of
the$500BNinnewinvestmentincleantechnologiesgloballybetween2007and2009was
fromprojectfinanceofmaturetechnologiessuchaswindturbines,solarpanels,andfirst
generationbiofuelrefineries,despitethechallengesfacedbytheglobalcapitalmarketsduring
therecession.7Similarly,debtandequitymarketswillfinancethecapitalinvestmentsneeded
6
7
AuthorscalculationsbasedondatafromNewEnergyFinancereportsandtheVentureXpertdatabase.
AuthorscalculationsbasedondatafromNewEnergyFinance.
tosupportthegrowthoffirmssuchasSunTechorFirstSolarthatproducethesecommercially
proventechnologies.
Thebottomlefthandboxdescribeslesscapitalintensive,lessriskybusinesses,orthe
manufactureofcomponentsforexistingtechnologiesthatareusedforenergyproduction.
Severaloftheserelatetoincrementalinnovationsbeingundertakenwithinexistingcompanies
thathaveachievedandcontinuetoachievelowercostsfortheirproducts.Forexample,
GeneralElectric,whichisaleaderinthewindturbinemarket,iscontinuouslyworkingon
incrementalinnovationstoreducethecostandincreasetheefficiencyofitsproducts.In
addition,severalbusinessesrelatingtoenergyservicesorenergyefficientbuildingmaterialsare
emerging,drivenbylegislationtopromotehomeandcommercialretrofits.Thesebusinesses
donotfacetechnologyrisk,andcaneasilyraisebankdebttofundtheiroperations.8
Ontheotherhand,thetechnologiesinthetworighthandboxestypicallyaretoo
technologicallyriskytoattractdebtfinance.Thebureaucraticstructureoflargecorporations
oftenimpliesthatsuchinnovationisdonebystartupsasopposedtolargerfirms(Henderson
andClark1990.)Theonlywaytheycanthusbecommercializedisthroughinitialinvestment
fromventurecapital,astheydonothaveinternalcashflowtofundtheirinnovationandare
tooriskyforprojectordebtfinance.
Afteraninitialforayintobackingtechnologiesinboththetopandbottomrighthandboxes,
VCsareincreasinglychangingtheirfocustowardsonlybackingstartupsinthelowerrighthand
box.Thatis,theyarefocusingonsectorsthatliemoreintheirtraditionalsweetspotasshown
inFigure4.Forexample,theshareofenergyefficiencydealsdonebyVCsrosefrom24%in
2008to32%in2009whileenergyproductioninvestmentsfellfrom30%to18%,and
investmentsinalternativefuelsfellfrom13%to8%.9Evenamongtheprojectsthatarerelated
toenergyproduction,VCshavebegunchangingtheirfocustowardscomponentmanufacturers
ratherthanfullscaleenergyproducers.DiscussionswithVCssuggestthatthistrendislikelyto
continueandthatseveralfactorsarecontributingtothisshiftinfocus.Weoutlinethesein
greaterdetailinthesectionbelow.
Eveniftheydidseekventurecapital,theyareunlikelytohavethegrowthpotentialthatcanofferVCstail
outcomes.
9
Source:ErnstandYoungpressreleases.
10
4. CleanEnergyInvestmentChallengesfacingVCs
4.1 CapitalintensityofenergyproductionandtheValleyofDeath
Akeyaspectoftheenergyproductiontechnologiesinthetoprighthandboxisthattheyface
technologyrisksattwostagesoftheircommercialization.Thefirst,whichistheriskofthe
technologyworking,issharedwithotherstartups.However,thesetechnologiesfaceasecond
risk:evenifthetechnologyworksinthelab,itisnotclearifitwillworkatscale.
Thisimpliesthatthetechnologyriskforenergyproductioncompaniesremainsformuchlonger
thaninmostfirmsthatVCsinvestin.Italsoimpliesthatriskcapitalisnotjustnecessaryforthe
earlystagesofthefirmslife,butisalsoneededtodemonstratethatthetechnologyworksat
scale.Demonstrationandfirstcommercialplantsforenergyproductionareverycapital
intensive:thefundsrequiredtoprovecommercialviabilityforenergyproductiontechnologies
outlinedinthetoprighthandboxofFigure4canreachseveralhundredmilliondollarsovera5
10yearperiod,comparedtothetensofmillionsthatVCsaretypicallyusedtoinvestinginany
givenstartup.Forexample,Solyndra,acompanythatmanufacturersphotovoltaicsystems
usingthinfilmtechnology,hashadtoraise$970Minequityfinanceinadditiontoa$535M
loanguaranteefromtheDepartmentofEnergy,priortoitsplannedIPOinmid2010.This
amountofcapitaltoprovecommercialviabilityisanorderofmagnitudegreaterthanthe$40
$50MthatVCsaretypicallyusedtoinvestingineachcompanytogetthemtoasuccessfulexit.
AsoutlinedinFigure2,thislevelofinvestmentisjustnotfeasiblefroma$300Mfundwithout
severelycompromisingthefunddynamicsofaventurefirm.Forexample,investingonly$8
15Minprojectthatistwiceascapitalintensivehalvesthedollarreturn,whilemaintainingthe
sameshareatexitinordertogetthedollarreturnsrequiresmakingfarfewerinvestmentsand
hencemakestheportfoliomuchmorerisky.Suchinvestmentsarethustypicallytoocapital
intensiveforVCs,givenfundstructurespresenttoday.Ontheotherhand,thesestartupsare
stilltooriskyfordebtandprojectfinanceinvestorstofundtheirdemonstrationorfirst
commercialplants.Debtinvestorsareabletodeploylargesumsofcapital,butrequire
commercialviabilitytohavebeenestablishedwellbeforetheymaketheirinvestments.
Thus,whilemanystartupsfacetheriskthattheymaynotreceiveenoughearlystagecapitalto
getthempasttheprecommercialstage,energyproductionstartups,inparticular,facea
massivefundinggaparoundthedemonstrationandfirstcommercialstagesoftheproject.The
fundinggapthatarisesatthecommercializationstagehasbeenreferredtoasthevalleyof
deathasshowninFigure6below.WhileafewstartupssuchasFirstSolar(thathadprivate
fundingfromdeeppockedinvestors,includingtheWaltonfamily)andSolyndrahavebeenable
11
toraisethiscapital,severalfirmsthatwerebackedbyVCsinthissectorhavenotbeenableto
raisesufficientfollowonfunding,evenwhentheirtechnologyhaslookedpromising.10
AnotherwayofdepictingthevalleyofdeathisthroughtheframeworkinFigures3and4.It
highlightsthefactthatstartupsintheupperrighthandcornerthathavethetwostage
investmentriskandhencearetooriskyforprojectfinanceandtoocapitalintensiveforventure
capitalarepreciselytheonesthatriskfallingintothevalleyofdeath.
Figure6:FundingGapsandValleyofDeath
Establishing
Commercial
Viability
Valley of
Death
Large-Scale
Deployment
4.2 ManagerialValleyofDeath
Whilemuchofthefocusofinvestorsandpolicymakershasbeenonthechallengesoffinancing
thescaleup,itisimportanttonote,however,thatitisnotjustacapitalgapthatisfacedby
energyproductionstartups.Potentialentrepreneurswhoknowtheenergyspaceoftentendto
befromlargeoilcompaniesorfromutilities.Theirexpertiseisinrunninglarge,established
firmsthatdonotfacemuchcompetitivepressureandhavelargecashflowsattheirdisposal.
Hence,theymakegoodCEOsforthestagewhenthestartupismoreestablished,buttheytend
toberelativelypoorentrepreneursattheearlystageofthebusinesswherecashislimitedand
needstoberaisedfrequently,thebusinessmodelisnotclear,anddecisionsneedtobemade
quicklywithlimitedinformationathand.Ontheotherhand,thosewithabackgroundofVC
10
IndeedthefactthatSolyndraneededtowithdrawitsIPOissupportiveofthefactthatevenforafirmthathas
successfullyraisedmillionsofdollarsinVCfunds,anexitisnotguaranteed.Thiswillonlyservetofurther
exacerbatethechallengesfacedbysimilarstartupsinraisingventurecapital.
12
backedentrepreneurshipmaybesuccessfulatrunningsmallITrelated,biotechorsemi
conductorstartups,butareillpositionedtomanageandgrowenergyproductioncompanies
thathavedifferentbusinessmodelsandchallenges.SinceVCsrequireentrepreneurstoplaya
centralroleinfundraisingforthelargeamountsofmoneyrequiredforcommercialtestingof
thetechnology,inadditiontomanaginglargeproductionfacilities,internationalcommodity
pricingandanticipatingthechanginggovernmentpolicies,theskillsetrequiredofsuchCEOsis
onethatisinshortsupply.
Hence,VCshavebeguntoidentifyamanagerialvalleyofdeathaswell.Therearemanagers
withexpertiseindeploymentandentrepreneurswithexpertiseintheinitialideavettingstage,
butgiventhelongertimetakenforenergyproductionstartupstoexit,theentrepreneurswho
cansuccessfullybridgethevalleyofdeathinthecapitalmarketsarefewandfarbetween.This
mismatchbetweentherequirementsofanentrepreneurintheenergyproductionspaceand
theskillsetofthetypicalVCbackedentrepreneurisexacerbatedbythefactthatcurrentVCs
arealsoillpositionedtoactasmentorsandhelpwiththegovernanceofenergyproduction
startups.SincemostofthecurrentsuccessfulVCinvestorshavethemselvesmadetheirmark
investingintheITsector,theirknowledgeabouttheneedsaroundbuildingasuccessful
companies,theircontactstohelpstartupswithsuppliers,customersandpotentialacquisition
targetsarenotgearedtowardstheenergyproductionsector.Allthesefactorsgreatlyincrease
theoperationalriskofcompanies,andhencethiscreatesimportantchallengesforrunningand
growingstandaloneenergyproductioncompaniesthatgowellbeyondtheircapitalintensity.
4.3 NoestablishedExitMechanism
Inindustriessuchasbiotechnology,semiconductorsandIT/networksthatalsosharethe
attributesofhugeinfrastructureandmanagementrequirementsthatareoutsidethescopeofa
startup,VCsbankonanestablishedexitmechanismtohandovertheirearlystageinvestments
beforetheyhitthevalleysofdeathincapitalandmanagerialtalent.Forexample,inthe
biotechnologyindustry,theVCmodelhasevolvedsothatpharmaceuticalcompaniesstepinto
buypromisingstartupsatapointevenbeforecommercialviabilityhasbeenproven.Thisisa
keypartoftheinnovationecosystemasitbridgesthepotentialvalleyofdeathandthereby
facilitatesprecommercialVCinvestmentsinbiotechnology.Thepropensityofpharmaceutical
companiestobuypromisingstartupsalsofacilitatestheirIPOsatprecommercialstages,
becausepublicinvestorsbelievethereissufficientcompetitionamongpharmaceuticalfirmsfor
biotechnologystartupswithinnovativesolutionsthattheywillbeacquiredwellbeforetheyhit
thevalleyofdeath.Cisco,Lucent,HPandJunipernetworksplayanequivalentroleintheIT/
networkingindustry.
13
Thusfar,however,energyproducingfirmsandutilitiesthatsupplyelectricitytocustomershave
beenfarfromactiveinacquiringpromisingcleanenergystartups.Thisbottleneckinthe
scalingupprocesshasaknockoneffectontheabilityforVCstofundprecommercial
technologiesinthisspaceaswell.Ifearlystageventureinvestorsfacetheriskthattheymaybe
unabletoraisefollowonfundingortoachieveanexit,evenforstartupswithotherwisegood
(butasyetunproven)technologies,theyrunthedangerofsinkingincreasingamountsof
dollarsforlongerperiodsoftimetokeepthestartupalive.Withincumbentfirmsunwillingto
buythesestartupsatprecommercialstages,thetimetoexitforthetypicalstartupismuch
longerthanthethreetofiveyearhorizonthatVCstypicallytarget(thetimetobuildpower
plantsandfactoriesisinherentlylongerthanasoftwaresalescycleandcaneventakelonger
thanthelifeofaVCfund).AsshowninFigure6,thisleadsventurecapitaliststowithdrawfrom
sectorswheretheycouldhavehelpedwiththeprecommercialfunding,butwheretheyarenot
certainthattheywillbeabletoeitherfundtheprojectthroughthefirstcommercialplant,or
theyarenotsureiftheycanexittheirinvestmentatthatstage(NandaandRhodesKropf2010).
Inthecaseofbiotechnologyindustry,aclearexitmechanismwasfacilitatedbythefactthat
pharmaceuticalcompanieshadthecapabilitiesforchemistryratherthanthenewbiology
basedinnovationbeingundertakenbybiotechnologystartups.Theirowninnovationpipelines
hadbeguntodryup,andhencebiotechnologystartupsprovidedanaturalcomplementtotheir
ownexpertise.Despitethispullfactor,pharmaceuticalfirmsdidnotbegintoactivelyacquire
biotechnologystartupsuntilthelatterbegantoactivelycompetewiththepharmaceutical
industry.FirmssuchasBiogen,AmgenandGenentechcreatedasenseofurgencyamongthe
pharmaceuticalindustry,thatalsocreatedapushtostartacquiringsuchfirms.
Becausethesetofbuyersisuniformandthecriteriaforasuccessfulexitatthisstagehavebeen
developedandwellunderstood,VCscanworkbackwardsandsettheirowninvestment
milestones.Inthisway,thedownstreamexitprocesshasimportantconsequencesforthe
directionofupstreaminnovation.Thefactthatthereisawelldevelopedecosystemwhere
largepharmaceuticalfirmsbuypromisingstartupsimpliesthattheregreaterearlystage
venturecapitalfundingofsuchfirms.Moreover,stockmarketinvestorsalsohaveanappetite
forsuchfirms,intheknowledgethatpharmaceuticalfirmswillbewillingtoacquireapromising
targetbeforeithitsthebottleneckofmarketinganddistribution.Thisinturncreatesanother
exitavenueforventureinvestors,fuellingfurtherearlystageactivity.Infact,thehistoryof
capitalintensiveindustriessuchasbiotechnology,communicationsnetworkingand
semiconductorssuggeststhatuntiltheincumbentsstartbuyingstartups,theinnovation
pipelinedoesnottrulytakeoff.
14
Theextenttowhichlargeenergycompanieswillplayanequivalentroleintheinnovation
pipelineforcleanenergyisnotyetclear.Oilcompanieshavenotchosentobeactivebuyersof
cleantechnologystartups.Thequipwespillmoreoilinadaythanyoumanufactureusing
renewablefeedstockinayeartypifiestheattitudethatentrepreneursandVCsbelievethatoil
companieshave.Whilemanysuchincumbentshavechosentoinvestinrenewable
technologies,theseeffortshavelargelybeenseenaseffectivemarketingratherthan
substantiveeffortsatalterativeenergyproductionthatwouldcannibalizetheircorebusiness.
Similarly,thecurrentincentivesystemforutilitieswheretheyarepaidonelectricitysalesgives
themnoincentivetosaveenergyortoadoptenergyefficienttechnologies.Evenwhentheyare
mandatedtodosothroughquotassuchastheRenewablePortfolioStandardsorthrough
decoupling,theincentivestheyfacewillpushthemtowardsusingthesafest,lowestcost
technologiesasopposedtobuyingriskierstartupfirms.Althoughtherearearangeofsolarand
windenergystartupsthathavethemselvesreachedtheincumbencystage,theyareyetto
becomeactivebuyersofotherstartupsintheirrespectivesubsectors.
Thelackofexitopportunitiesisnotjustanissueforenergyproductionstartups.Othersub
sectorsincleanenergyareequallyvulnerabletothelackofasustainedexitmechanism.Many
oftheenergyefficiencytechnologiesrelatedtosmartmetersdependonacquisitionby,or
cooperationof,incumbentsfortheirsuccess.Othersdependonsystemlevelchangefor
widespreadadoption.Forexample,smartgridsoftwaretechnologiesaremosteffectiveonce
theantiquatedelectricitygridhasbeenupgraded.Widespreadadoptionofelectricvehicleswill
requirecomplementaryinfrastructuresuchaschargingstations.Innovationintheenergy
storagesubsectoralsodependsontheabilityofincumbentstobecomeactivebuyersofnew
startups.Whilenotasextensiveastheproblemsfacedbyenergyproductionstartups,these
challengesmayalsohinderthelongertermsuccessofventureinvestmentinthecleanenergy
investmentsinthebottomrighthandboxofFigure4aswellasthetoprighthandbox
associatedwiththeenergyproductiontechnologies.
4.4 GlobalCommoditiesandPolicyRisk
Itisworthnotingthatthebiotechnologyindustrytookover1015yearstoreachapointof
institutionalizationwherepharmaceuticalfirmsandVCbackedstartupseachplaytheirrolein
theinnovationecosystem.Thecleanenergyindustrytodayiswherebiotechnologywasin
1982andthecommunications/networkingindustrywasin1988.
AnimportantdifferencebetweentheenergyproductionandthetypicalVCbackedstartupis
thatenergyisacommodity.Whileincumbentsinotherindustriescompetewitheachotherto
acquirestartupsinordertomeetenduserdemand,theenduserintheenergymarketcannot
distinguishelectronsproducedfromcoal,thesunorthewind(unlessthegovernmentprices
15
thecostofcarbonappropriately).Incumbentsarethereforenotpressedtoacquirestartupsin
thisspace.Inthecaseofbiofuels,theinputstotheirproductionprocessarealsocommodities.
Energyproducersthereforefacecommodityriskforbothrawmaterialsandendproducts.Since
thesemarketscanexhibitsubstantialpricevolatility,itmakesrunningandmanagingthese
companiesmoredifficult.Forexample,secondandthirdgenerationbiofuelstartups
producingethanolorbiocrudeat$80$90perbarrelwerecompetitivein2007priortothe
globalrecessionwhenconventionaloilpricestopped$100abarrel,butmostwentbustwhen
oilpricesplummetedinthesubsequentrecession.
Thechallengesofbackingaglobalcommodityproducerarecompoundedbythefactthat
energyandcleanenergyaresectorswithlargeinvolvementbygovernmentsacrosstheworld.
Giventhatcleanenergytechnologieshavenotyetachievedgridparity,governmentpolicyis
alsocriticalindeterminingthepricesofinputsandfinishedproducts.Somegovernments
choosetoeithertaxcarboncontentinconventionalfuelsortobuycleanenergyatapremium.
Otherschoosetosubsidizecleanenergycompaniesthroughdirectgrantsandsubsidiesor
throughtaxbreaks.Regardlessofthepolicy,itimpliesthattheextenttowhichagiven
startupsproductislikelytobeprofitabledependsgreatlyonwhetheritisincludedinthe
subsidyorcredit,theextenttowhichcarbonistaxedorthepricepremiumatwhichthe
governmentbuysthecommodity.
Policychangesanduncertaintyarethusmajorfactorshinderingthepotentialinvestmentby
privatesectorplayersacrossthecleanenergyinvestmentlandscape.Thisisparticularlytrue
whentheperiodicityoftheregulatorycycleissmallerthantheinvestmentcyclerequiredfor
demonstratingcommercialviability.Insuchanevent,nooneiswillingtoinvestinthefirst
commercialplantiftheydonotknowwhattheregulatoryenvironmentisgoingtobebythe
timesuccesshasbeendemonstrated(basedontherulesofthepriorregulatoryregime).
Theglobalexposureofthesemarketsimpliesthatchangesintheregulatoryregimeinone
countrycanaffecttheinvestmentlandscapeacrosstheentiresector.Attractivesubsidiesfrom
Spainledtoarushofinvestmentinthesolarsectorthere.Whenthegovernmentcouldnot
honoritscommitments,itledtoawidespreadshakeoutoffirmsinSpain.However,thisnot
onlydamagedthecredibilityoftheSpanishgovernmentinhonoringitscommitmentstowards
solarsubsidies,butalsocreatedsuspicionamonginvestorsthatothergovernmentsmightface
asimilarfateiftheydidnotpricetheirsubsidiescorrectly.
USventurecapitalfirmsarenotusedtoinvestinginsectorswithalargeanduncertainrolefor
governmentpolicy.Policyuncertaintyimpliesthatfirmsandtheirinvestorslobbyforlarge
grantsthatgivethemabufferofcapitalintheshorttermandthereforereducetheirexposure
topotentiallyvolatilelongertermgovernmentpolicy.Theyalsolobbytoincludetheir
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particulartechnologyinthesetoffirmsthatareeligibleforbenefits,whileaimingtoexclude
others.ItisnotsurprisingthatmanyVCshaveopenedupbranchesinWashingtonDCtolobby
forgrantstosupporttheirownstartups.
5. Possiblesolutions
5.1Privatecapitalmarketsolutions
Intheabsenceofenergycompaniesandutilitiesplayinganimportantroleinthisinnovation
pipeline,thealternativeforwidespreadinnovationbystartupsinenergyproductionwill
requirethestructureoftheVCindustrytochangeinkeyways.
First,itwillrequiresignificantlylargerfundsthanistypicalforventurecapitalinvestors.Indeed
KleinerPerkins$500MGreenGrowthFund,andKhoslaVentures$750Mfundareexamples
ofsuchatrend,butthesectorwillprobablyrequireevenlargerfundstosupportthescaleup
requiredbyenergyproductioncompanies.Themajorityofventurecapitalinvestorsinclean
technologydonothavededicatedfundsforthissector,andcontinuetoraise$250300Mfunds
andmayneedtohavefargreaterlevelsofsyndication,orpresetpartnershipsacrossVCsin
ordertosustainthelevelofinvestmentrequiredbythissector.
Theproblemofraisingthisscaleofmoneyiscompoundedbythefactthatinvestmentsin
energyproductionwillrequirelongerlifefunds,sothatVCscannurturestartupsthrough
commercialdemonstrationandhencebridgethevalleyofdeath.Thuslimitedpartnerswho
investinVCfirmswillhavetocommitlargersumsofmoneythatwillbelockedupforlonger
periodsoftime.Giventhevoidinhumancapitalrequiredtogrowandrunenergyproduction
startupsintheshorttomediumterm,VCswillneedtospendsignificantlylongerwith
individualportfoliocompaniesinordertoensurethattheycontinuetobesuccessful.However,
thelongertheyneedtospendhelpinganyonecompanytomature,thefewerfirmstheycan
committoworkingwith,sinceeachfirmwilltakealongerproportionoftheirtime.Thishasan
impactontheeconomicsofthefundandthereturnstoindividualventurecapitalpartners.All
ofthesefactorsimplythatifventurecapitalinvestmentintheenergysectoristobesustained
intheabsenceofearlyexitopportunities,itwillrequirearadicalreworkingoftheVCfund
structuresandterms.
Overcomingthesechallengeswillbecompoundedbyanotherfactorassociatedwiththe
emergenceofanewindustry:learningthroughexperimentation.Investorsinnew
technologiesgetfeedbackontheirprocessofduediligence,thetypesofentrepreneurswho
aremostsuccessful,andanunderstandingofthechallengesfacedbycertaintypesofbusiness
modelsovertheinvestmentcycle(Goldfarbetal2007).Thisisalsoaperiodwhenageneration
17
ofnewentrepreneursarise,driveninpartbythemanyfirmsthatfailduetoatechnologythat
didnotwork,butwheretheentrepreneursdevelopedagoodworkingrelationshipwiththe
venturecapitalinvestors.IfclustersofstartupsinenergyproductiondoemergeintheUS,the
locusofsuchanecosystemmayalsoinvolvecitiessuchasHouston,DenverorMinneapolis
wheretheworkforceandpossiblebuyersofenergyproductionfirmsareoftenlocated.Ifthis
happens,itwillalsorequireachangeinthewaythatVCssourcedealsandengagewiththe
wholenewsetofotherintermediariessuchaslawyers,headhuntersandotherservice
providersthatwillemergetoserviceinvestorswhospecializeincleanenergysectors.
AlloftheseprocessesdevelopfasterwhenthecycletimesforexperimentationbytheVCsare
smaller.Inthecontextofcleanenergy,thefeedbackismuchslower,drivenbythedualstages
ofriskandthelongercycletimesofcleanenergy.Manyplayersthereforeseeacriticalrolefor
governmentinsupportingthegrowthofthecleanenergyinnovationpipeline.
5.2GovernmentSupport
TheUSgovernmenthasplayedanimportantroleinsupportingcleantechnologyinnovationin
theUS.However,thevastmajorityofthishasbeenonthesupplyside,throughthedirect
supportofspecificgovernmentanduniversityprograms,grantstosupportprecommercial
fundingofnewstartupsthroughtheARPAEprogramandattemptstobridgethevalleyof
deathforindividualprojectsthroughtheDepartmentofEnergysloanguaranteeprogram
(Roberts,LassiterandNanda2010).
Whileclearlyveryhelpfulinattemptingtoaddressthefundinggapsinherentintheenergy
innovationpipeline,akeyaspectofensuringthatthepipelineofnewprojectscontinuetoget
fundingfromtheprivatesectorwillbetoensurethatthereisavibrantsetofexitopportunities
forthesestartupsbeforetheyhitthevalleyofdeath.Whilegovernmentguaranteeddebtwill
helpreducesomeofthisrisk,widespreadexperimentationanddeploymentofnew
technologiescanonlytakeplaceoncestartupshaveaclearpathtobeingacquiredorgoing
publiconthecapitalmarkets.Thegovernmentcanthereforedomoreintermsofmakingexits
easier.WenotethreeinterestingideasthathaveemergedthroughourdiscussionswithVCs
andthatarealsoechoedinthebroadercommunityofinvestorslookingforsolutionstothe
valleyofdeath(BloombergNewEnergyFinance,2010).
Thefirstareawherethegovernmentcanmakeasignificantcontributionisthroughstable,
predictableandlongtermpolicymeasuresaimedatstimulatingdemandforcleanenergy.
Removinguncertaintyaroundpoliciesreducespolicyriskdramaticallyandmakesiteasierfor
theprivatecapitalmarketstoplantheirinvestmentsaccordingly.Furthermore,intheabsence
ofenduserpressuretodriveM&Aactivity,thegovernmentcancreatethispressurethrough
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policiessuchasFeedinTariffs(FITs).WhileFITshavetheirmostdirecteffectonincremental
improvementsofcommerciallyproventechnologies,solutionssuchasemergingtechnology
auctionsmaybeabletosuccessfullycreatetheappropriatedemandfornewtechnologies.
Second,thegovernmentcandirectlystimulateM&Aactivityeitherthroughtheregulatory
systemorthroughcorporateincentives.Forexample,withoutdecoupling,utilitieswillhaveno
incentivetoadoptnewtechnologiesbeyondanythingthattheyaremandatedtodo.
Renewableportfoliostandardsastheystandtodaytendtobiasutilitiestowardsadoptingmore
mature,currentlycheapertechnologies.Thegovernmentcanalsocreateincentivesfor
incumbentfirmstoactasfirstadoptersfornewtechnologies.Thesecaneffectivelyhelpto
bridgethevalleyofdeath,createmoreearlystagefundinganddrivethegrowthofa
sufficientnumberofstartupfirmstoultimatelycreatelargefirmsthatwillcompetewitheach
othertoacquireforthenextgenerationofstartups.
Finally,thegovernmentcancreatepublicprivatepartnershipfundsthatcanhelpeitherwith
firstcommercialtestingorasmechanismsthateffectivelycompetewiththeincumbents.
CreatingthiscompetitioncanhelpstimulateM&Aactivityinthesectorandhencedrivethe
innovationpipeline(BloombergNewEnergyFinance,2010).
6. Conclusion
VenturecapitalhasbeentheenginebehindthewidespreadinnovationintheUnitedStates
overthelastseveraldecades.Towhatextentisitadequatelypositionedtohelpwiththerapid
commercializationofcleanenergytechnologiesoverthecomingyears?
Therehasbeenarapidinflowofventurecapitalbackingcleanenergystartupsinthepastfew
years.Whilethereareseveralstartupsincleanenergythatarewellsuitedtothetraditional
venturecapitalinvestmentmodel,ouranalysishighlightsanumberofstructuralchallenges
relatedtoVCinvestmentinthesectorthatareparticularlyacuteforstartupsinvolvedinthe
productionofcleanenergy.
Manyhavearguedthatcontinuedinnovationinpowerproduction(whichaccountsfor40%of
CO2emissions)isofgreatimportancefrombothanenvironmentalandanenergysecurity
perspective.Wearguethatlongerterminnovationinthisspacebyventurebackedstartupsin
theUSwilldependcriticallyontheabilityoftheinnovationecosystemtoadapttothedifferent
structuralcharacteristicsofthecleanenergysector.
Oneofthemostimportantbottlenecksthreateningtheinnovationpipelineinenergy
productionistheinabilityofVCstoexittheirinvestmentsattheappropriatetime.Thishurdle
didexistinindustriessuchasbiotechnologyandcommunicationsnetworkingthatfaceda
19
similarproblemwhentheyfirstemerged,andwasultimatelyovercomebychangesinthe
innovationecosystem.However,incumbentsintheoilandpowersectoraredifferentintwo
respects.First,theyareproducingacommodityandhencefacelittleenduserpressureto
adoptnewtechnologies.Second,theydonottendtofeelasthreatenedbypotential
competitionfromthesecleanenergystartups,giventhemarketstructureandregulatory
environmentintheenergysector.Whilethisisparticularlytrueforenergyproduction,this
challengeisalsopresentforstartupsintheenergyefficiencyandtransportationsubsectors.
Wehighlightthattheproblemisunlikelytogetsolvedwithouttheactiveinvolvementof
government.Evenifitdoes,historicalexperiencesuggestsitmaytakeseveralyears.
WhiletheUSgovernmenthastakenimportantstepstofacilitatethefundingofradical
innovationsincleanenergy,akeyaspectoftheinnovationecosystemthatwillberequiredto
makethissustainablewillbetojumpstartanactiveM&Amarketforcleanenergystartups.This
willeffectivelybridgethevalleyofdeathinboththecapitalmarketsandthelabormarkets,as
wellasstimulatemoreupstreamfundingofcleantechnologystartupsbyventurecapital
investors.Whileadirectpolicyoffacilitatingexitforventureinvestorsmightbeexpectedto
generatesomepoliticalresistance,wehighlightsomeoptionsthatVCshaveoutlinedthatmay
gosomewaytowardsresolvingthebottleneck.
20
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