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Module-5

Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)


Analysis of Variance - Learning Objectives

• At the end of this session, delegates will be able to:


• Understand the concept of additivity of variance
• Interpret results from an Analysis of Variance
Table
• Test results from Analysis of Variance for statistical
significance
Analysis of Variance - Agenda
1. Introduction
2. Calculation of Total Variance
3. One-Way Analysis of Variance
4. Components of Variation
5. Calculation of Sum of Squares
6. Degrees of Freedom
7. Calculation of the Mean Square
8. F-Ratio
9. Testing for Significance
10. Estimating Components of Variation
11. Crossed v Nested Designs
12. Summary
DMAIC Improvement Process
Define Measure Analyse Improve Control
 Select Project  Define Measures (y’s)  Identify Potential x’s  Characterise x’s  Control Critical x’s
 Define Project
Objective
C1 C2 C3
y
.. .. . 10.2 Upper Control Limit

. .. .. . x
 Form the Team 10.0
 Evaluate Measurement Effect
System 9.8 Lower Control Limit

C4 C5 C6 y=f(x1,x2,..) 9.6
1 5 10 15 20

 Analyse x’s  Optimise x’s  Monitor y’s


Run 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
 Map the Process
 Determine Process 1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
 Identify Customer Stability 3 1 2 2 1 1 2 2
4 1 2 2 2 2 1 1
Requirements 5 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 y
 Determine Process 6 2 1 2 2 1 2 1
7 2 2 1 1 2 2 1
Capability 8 2 2 1 2 1 1 2

 Set Tolerances for x’s  Validate Control


LSL USL  Select Critical x’s
 Verify Improvement Plan
xx
x x
x x LSL USL
15 20 25 30 35
x x
 Identify Priorities x
 Set Targets for x
 Update Project File Measures  Close Project
x
15 20 25 30 35

Phase Review Phase Review Phase Review Phase Review Phase Review
Introduction to ANOVA
• Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) is a technique that
separates variation into individual components
• These components of variation can then be interpreted to
determine their importance
• In Six Sigma, Analysis of Variance will be used to
interpret:
• Results from Gauge R&R Studies
• Data from Designed Experiments
• Results from Regression Analysis
• Data from Response Surface Methodology
Additivity of Variance

• Although the standard deviation (σ σ) is the most


commonly used measure of variation, it is the
σ2) that is studied in Analysis of Variance
variance (σ

• The reason for this is that variances are additive,


which means that the total variation can be divided
into constituent parts

• The following example demonstrates how this is


done
Data - Dimension

Cavity Number
1 2 3 4 5
49.6 48.3 48.6 49.3 51.8
49.4 48.5 51.2 49.6 51.6
•The data opposite represents
51.1 51.5 49.5 51.1 49.5 the dimension of an injection
51.6 51.8 50.5 48.7 50.2 moulded component, with a
49.1 49.2 48.9 48.5 51.2 nominal dimension of 50mm.
48.9 50.2 48.4 50.0 51.8
50.1 50.2 49.4 50.6 52.3 •10 samples have been taken
50.9 50.2 50.4 50.4 50.9 from each of 5 mould
50.0 51.0 48.4 52.0 51.2 cavities.
49.7 49.5 48.2 50.5 50.0
Data-Dimension
Summary for data
A nderson-Darling N ormality Test
A -S quared 0.41
P -V alue 0.323

M ean 50.110
S tDev 1.126
V ariance 1.268
S kew ness 0.05595
Kurtosis -1.00052
N 50
M inimum 48.200
1st Q uartile 49.275
M edian 50.150
3rd Q uartile 51.100
48 49 50 51 52 M aximum 52.300
95% C onfidence Interv al for M ean
49.790 50.430
95% C onfidence Interv al for M edian
49.567 50.500
95% C onfidence Interv al for S tD ev
95% Confidence Intervals
0.941 1.403
Mean

Median

49.50 49.75 50.00 50.25 50.50

• We might want to investigate if there is a significant difference between


cavities
• We can use One-way ANOVA to investigate this
Total Variance Calculation

The equation for the sample variance of the 50


observations can be calculated as follows:

(∑ y ) 2

∑ ( y − y)
2
∑y 2

n
s2 = =
n−1 n−1
Where:
Σy = The sum of the individual observations
Σy2 = The sum of squares of the individual observations
n = the number of observations
Total Variance Calculation
1 2 3 4 5
49.6 48.3 48.6 49.3 51.8
49.4 48.5 51.2 49.6 51.6
51.1 51.5 49.5 51.1 49.5
51.6 51.8 50.5 48.7 50.2
49.1 49.2 48.9 48.5 51.2
48.9 50.2 48.4 50.0 51.8
50.1 50.2 49.4 50.6 52.3
50.9 50.2 50.4 50.4 50.9
50.0 51.0 48.4 52.0 51.2
49.7 49.5 48.2 50.5 50.0

∑ y =49.6 + 49.4 + 51.1 + ............. + 50.0 = 2505.5


∑y 2 2 2 2 2
=49.6 + 49.4 + 51.1 + ............. + 50.0 = 125612.73
Total Variance Calculation

2 (Σy )
2

Σy −
σ n2−1 = s 2 = n
n−1

125612.73 −
(2505.5 )
2

σ 2 2
=s = 50 = 1.268
n −1
49
The total variance of our 50 observations is 1.268
The square root of the variance, the standard deviation, is 1.126
(These calculations can be performed simply in Minitab!)
One-Way ANOVA

A one-way analysis of variance requires the following:


1. Identification of the Sources (Components) of Variation
2. Calculation of the Sum of Squares due to each Source of
Variation
3. Assignment of the appropriate Degrees of Freedom
4. Calculation of the Mean Squares
5. Calculation of the F-Ratio
6. Test the statistical significance of the F-Ratio
1. Components of Variation
Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) allows the decomposition of
the total variance into it’s constituent parts:

The components of variance in this study are:

σ2Between Cavity = Variation due to the different cavities


(Between Cavities)
σ2Within Cavity = Variation due to the parts within each cavity
(Between Parts within Cavities)
σ2Total = σ2Between Cavity + σ2Within Cavity
2. Calculation of the Sum of Squares

The total sum of squares is calculated as follows:

( ) =∑y
2 (∑ y )2

SS Total = ∑ y − y 2


n
Strictly speaking the sum of squares is the sum of
squares around the mean, known as the corrected sum
of squares. We always use the corrected sum of
squares when estimating variation.

(∑ y ) 2
(2505.5)
2

SS Total = ∑ y 2 −
− = 125612.73 − = 62.12
n 50
2. Calculation of the Sum of Squares
The sum of squares due to cavities is calculated as follows:

(C ) + (C ) + (C ) + (C ) + (C ) (∑ y )
2 2 2 2 2 2
1 2 3 4 5
SS BetweenCavity = −
np n

SS BetweenCavity =
(500.4) + (500.4) + (493.5) + (500.7) 2 + (510.5) 2 (2505.5)
2 2 2


2

10 50

SS BetweenCavity = 125565.33 − 125550.61 = 14.72

C1, C2, C3, C4, C5 are the Sums for each Cavity (i.e the Sum
of the 10 parts made on each cavity).
np is the number of parts made within each cavity
2. Calculation of the Sum of Squares

The sum of squares due to within cavity variation can


be calculated by subtraction since:

SS Total = SS BetweenCavities + SSWithinCavities


SS Total = 62.12
SS BetweenCavities = 14.72
SSWithinCavities = 62.12 − 14.72 = 47.40
2. Calculation of the Sum of Squares

Source of Variation Sum of Squares

Between Cavities 14.72


Within Cavities 47.40

Total 62.12
3. Degrees of Freedom

Degrees of Freedom is a statistical concept relating to the


number of paired comparisons required to distinguish
between items.

For example, we need to find the tallest person out of 3


people. 2 comparisons would be required:

Person 1 v Person 2
Tallest v Person 3

We would then know who the tallest person is.


3. Rules for Degrees of Freedom

The following rules apply to Degrees of Freedom for One-


Way ANOVA:

DF for Between Factor Variation = (Number of levels) – 1


(Between Cavities)

DF for Within Factor Variation = (Factor levels) x (Repeats – 1)


(Within Cavities)

Total DF = (Number of Individual results – 1)


3. Degrees of Freedom

Degrees
of
Source of Variation Sum of Squares Freedom

Between Cavities 14.72 4


Within Cavities 47.40 45

Total 62.12 49
4. Calculation of the Mean Square

The Mean Square is calculated as follows:

Mean Square = (Sum of Squares) / (Degrees of Freedom)

Source of Variation Sum of Squares DF Mean Square

Between Cavities 14.72 4 3.680


Within Cavities 47.40 45 1.053

Total 62.12 49
5. Calculation of the F-Ratio

Source of Variation Sum of Squares DF Mean Square F-Ratio

Between Cavities 14.72 4 3.680 3.49


Within Cavities 47.40 45 1.053

Total 62.12 49

The F-Ratio is used to test the significance of the between cavity


variation. The higher the F-Ratio, the more likely that the source of
variation is significant.

F-ratio = (MSBetween Cavities) / (MSWithin Cavities) = 3.680/1.053 = 3.49


6. Testing for Significance

We can test the significance of the between cavity variation by


examining the F-Ratio, (named after Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher).

Between Cavity Mean Square 3.680


F - ratio = = = 3.49
Within Cavity Mean Square 1.053

• Examining the F tables for F0.05,4,45 gives a value of 2.61 (this is


nearest in the tables to F0.05,4,40 )

• Our value of 3.49 is greater than 2.61 so we can assume that the
between cavity variation is statistically significant.

• This is equivalent to saying that there is a statistically significant


difference in dimension dependent on the cavity used.
ANOVA - Minitab
Open Worksheet: ANOVA-One-Way Unstacked
ANOVA - Minitab

Select: ‘1’-’5’
Analysis of Variance - Minitab

• The p-value gives the probability of no difference between the cavity


averages.
• As p = 0.014 <0.05, we can conclude that there is a difference
between cavity averages with 95% confidence.
95% Confidence Intervals
Crossed v Nested Designs

• In the previous example we were investigating the effect


of a single factor (cavity) on component dimension
• In many cases we might want to investigate two or more
factors e.g. machine or operator
• Depending upon how the levels of one factor appear with
the levels of the other factor, we can say that the design is
“Crossed” or “Nested”
• In Crossed Designs every level of one factor occurs with
every level of another factor
• In Nested Designs not all levels of one factor occur with
every level of another factor
Crossed Design

Factor A:- Machine Machine 1 Machine 2

Factor B:- Operator Operator 1 Operator 2

•Factors are CROSSED because each operator works on


each machine
•For example, when doing a Gauge R&R every
component is measured by every operator so we use a
Crossed analysis
Nested Design

Factor A:- Machine Machine 1 Machine 2

Factor B:-
Operator 1 Operator 2 Operator 3 Operator 4
Operator

•Factors are NESTED because different operators work


on each machine
Analysis of Variance - Summary

• Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) is a technique that


separates all variation into individual components
• These components of variation can then be interpreted to
determine their importance
• Analysis of Variance is a complicated subject and the
advice of a statistician should be sought before attempting
any complex analyses
DMAIC Improvement Process
Define Measure Analyse Improve Control
 Select Project  Define Measures (y’s)  Identify Potential x’s  Characterise x’s  Control Critical x’s
 Define Project
Objective
C1 C2 C3
y
.. .. . 10.2 Upper Control Limit

. .. .. . x
 Form the Team 10.0
 Evaluate Measurement Effect
System 9.8 Lower Control Limit

C4 C5 C6 y=f(x1,x2,..) 9.6
1 5 10 15 20

 Analyse x’s  Optimise x’s  Monitor y’s


Run 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
 Map the Process
 Determine Process 1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
 Identify Customer Stability 3 1 2 2 1 1 2 2
4 1 2 2 2 2 1 1
Requirements 5 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 y
 Determine Process 6 2 1 2 2 1 2 1
7 2 2 1 1 2 2 1
Capability 8 2 2 1 2 1 1 2

 Set Tolerances for x’s  Validate Control


LSL USL  Select Critical x’s
 Verify Improvement Plan
xx
x x
x x LSL USL
15 20 25 30 35
x x
 Identify Priorities x
 Set Targets for x
 Update Project File Measures  Close Project
x
15 20 25 30 35

Phase Review Phase Review Phase Review Phase Review Phase Review