Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Logistics - Overweight
VLCC
Suezmax
Aframax
Capesize
Panamax
Supramax
Handysize
Research Analyst
Bharat Chhoda
bharat.chhoda@icicisecurities.com
Ankit Panchmatia
ankit.panchmatia@icicisecurities.com
Volatility in Baltic dry index (BDI) has stabilised at 600 levels. Average
BDI for June was at 600 compared to 620 in May 2016. Indices for dry
bulk remained firm during the month with a slight negative bias for
certain asset classes. Indices for Capesize improved for a third
consecutive month with 13% growth to an average of 882 for Q1FY17
vis--vis an average of 778 in Q1FY16. Continued demand for iron ore,
coal and foodgrains would enable continued revival in BDI
Tanker rates across asset classes tapered for June, with VLCC
declining the most. Tanker rates for VLCC de-grew 22% MoM to
$27500 per day. Broader indices for tankers Baltic Dirty Tanker (BDTI)
and Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) declined for a fourth consecutive
month to an average of 722 (-6% MoM) and 463 (-1% MoM) levels,
respectively. For Q1FY17, the BDTI and BCTI corrected by 13% and
28%, respectively as compared to Q1FY16
Total volumes handled by rail for June grew 3% YoY to 92.3 million
tonnes (MT). Volumes for key commodities like coal, iron ore and
fertilisers grew 4%, 12% and 3%, respectively. The YTD (April-June)
volumes for railways remained flat at 271 MT. For major ports, total
traffic grew by 6% on YTD basis (April-June) to 159 MT compared to
150 MT. Growth in container volumes was spirited with growth of
10% YoY to 726000 TEUs
Outlook
Tankers remain in bearish mode; Dry bulk sustains
As tanker markets heads towards the summer months, tanker indices and
rates continue to tread down. In addition to the same higher supplies of
VLCCs (19 - delivered; 38 - to be delivered throughout rest of the year)
mainly impacted the daily rates for the asset which de-grew by 28% YoY
(down 22% MoM). Also, the daily rates for Aframax and Clean
sequentially declined 1% MoM and 29% MoM, respectively. Dry bulk
indices continue to remain on firm foothold of 600 levels. BDI remained
supportive of increase in demand in China for seaborne coal, due to the
governments drive to cut domestic supplies. For the first six months, the
imports of coal increased by 8% YoY to 108 MT. Rise in crude prices
coupled and oversupply tonnage would continue to haunt the outlook for
the shipping sector. I-direct shipping universe earnings and profitability
would remain sluggish, given the phenomenal performance in FY16,
following which we continue to retain HOLD on the same.
Sustainability in port volumes indicates recovery; earnings to follow....
Container volumes at major ports for June attained double digit growth of
10% YoY to 726000 TEUs. JNPT, the largest container port, was the major
contributor with 7% YoY growth. Total port volumes (all commodities) for
June grew by 6.2% on YTD (April-June) to 159 MT. Iron ore volumes now
contribute 6% to total volumes compared to 1% in FY16. Increased
volumes affirm our revenue estimates for Concor and Gujarat Pipavav.
Higher utilisation levels would lead to better margins for coverage
companies.
E-commerce takes back seat; GST & revival in economy to drive growth
With the new guidelines on discounting, volumes for e-commerce
companies are expected to taper. However, better monsoon coupled with
revival in trade economy would be at the forefront for the earning growth
of logistics players. In addition to the same, higher probability of passage
of Goods and Services Tax (GST) would change operational landscape of
logistics players. Organised players with a pan-India reach are expected to
benefit form the same, subsequently we remain positive.
VLCC
CY15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
20178
54876
41355
46228
47162
35412
27560
Suezmax
11488
29777
27220
24380
28233
17401
20370
Aframax
11972
23390
18971
21272
17127
11838
11751
5903
14818
10231
10786
10574
8250
5858
Clean
CY14
Tankers
Bulk Indices
Baltic Dry index
1016
746
307
383
621
620
608
Capesize
1875
1169
203
187
630
861
938
Panamax
855
719
324
445
637
601
565
Supramax
883
678
280
424
493
567
571
Handysize
469
366
197
251
288
350
330
mn tonnes
100
80
60
40
20
Jun-16
Dec-15
Jun-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
40
30
20
10
Australia
Brazil
India
Jun-16
Feb-16
Oct-15
Jun-15
Feb-15
Oct-14
Jun-14
Feb-14
Oct-13
Jun-13
S. Africa
Page 2
100
953
933
1000
750
628
52.4
619
687
51.6
745
57.2
820
62.1
82.3
79.4
77.8
80
68.4
60
494
500
40
250
20
CY16
CY15
CY14
CY13
CY12
CY11
CY10
CY09
50
40
30
20
May-12
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
May-16
800
600
400
200
0
Jun-13
Oct-13
Feb-14
Jun-14
Oct-14
BWCOAL Index
Feb-15
Jun-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Jun-16
BPRCOAL Index
Page 3
2000
Index
1000
BDI
Jun-16
Dec-15
Jun-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
BPI
1000
Index
600
Jun-16
Dec-15
Jun-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Dec-13
Jun-13
200
$/barrel
100
Average crude prices revived for a sixth consecutive
month to $48.4. The prices grew 3% MoM; however
the YTD (January to June) average stood at a steep
discount of 31%, as compared to same period
pervious year
80
60
40
20
0
Jun-12
Feb-13
Oct-13
Jun-14
Feb-15
Oct-15
Jun-16
Page 4
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Jun-13
Oct-13
Feb-14
Jun-14
Oct-14
VLCC
Feb-15
Jun-15
Suezmax
Oct-15
Feb-16
Jun-16
Aframax
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
YTDFY16
Kolkata
600
552
563
630
662
147
27.9%
Paradip
13
0.0%
Vizag
248
234
263
248
293
63
87
38.1%
Ennore
0.0%
-5.0%
Chennai
1539
1558
1468
1552
1565
398
378
Tuticorin
479
477
508
560
612
148
162
9.5%
Cochin
326
336
351
365
421
94
120
27.7%
New Mangalore
48
45
50
63
76
19
18
-5.3%
Mormugoa
20
22
22
25
26
20.0%
Mumbai
58
58
41
45
43
10
11
10.0%
4259
4321
4161
4460
4491
1108
1144
3.2%
0.0%
2118
6.3%
JNPT
Kandla
118
168
29
Total
7708
7779
7465
7952
8197
1993
12.0
9.8
750
5.8
650
2.1
4.0
2.0
726
0.0
-2.0
Jun-16
706
686
Apr-16
744
673
Feb-16
694
683
643
666
693
-1.2
Dec-15
Aug-15
678
0.1
730
660
Jun-15
4.9
1.3
0.9
Oct-15
1.1
550
6.0
5.4
3.9
3.1
600
500
10.0
8.0
700
('000 TEUs)
10.0
Page 5
| Crore
Passenger
Other Coaching
Goods
Sundry
Total
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
28631.5
32536.1
37478.3
42866.2
YTDFY16
YTDFY17
YTD
FY16 (Apr-June) (Apr-June) Growth (%)
45353.6
11619.8
11976.1
3%
2848.6
3197.9
3818.0
4035.6
4461.5
1082.9
1174.7
8%
69382.2
86255.4
94955.9
107074.8
110340.3
28743.0
25690.1
-11%
2828.3
3913.2
4509.0
3903.9
3493.0
682.1
798.9
17%
103690.7
125902.6
140761.3
157880.5
163648.4
42127.8
39639.7
-6%
| Crore
Coal
RM for steel plants
except iron-ore
Pig Iron &
Finished Steel
YTDFY16
YTDFY17
YTD
FY16 (Apr-June) (Apr-June) Growth (%)
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
28611.6
36802.4
39986.9
49273.7
49988.5
13372.5
11450.0
-14%
1163.7
1387.3
1560.8
1964.3
2022.7
535.0
443.3
-17%
4080.7
5182.1
5805.3
6488.7
7046.5
1732.1
1725.9
0%
Iron Ore
7285.0
7421.3
9163.4
7804.5
7072.6
1772.1
1945.0
10%
Cement
6719.7
8229.2
8665.3
9241.6
9155.0
2605.2
2159.3
-17%
Foodgrains
4634.2
6792.2
7894.4
8474.9
7811.3
1885.4
1772.7
-6%
Fertilizers
4270.8
4732.1
4536.0
5600.4
6919.9
1610.6
1313.6
-18%
POL
3667.3
4720.3
5405.7
5738.3
6002.9
1582.8
1575.9
0%
Other Goods
5115.3
5684.4
6111.4
7111.3
7776.4
1970.6
1803.1
-9%
921.2
953.8
1239.9
1263.4
1248.8
331.4
284.3
-14%
EXIM Container
2495.9
2879.6
3098.7
3676.3
4234.4
1034.4
1011.3
-2%
Total Container
3417.1
3833.4
4338.6
4939.7
5483.2
1365.9
1295.6
-5%
68965.4
84784.7
93467.7
106637.4
109278.9
28432.1
25484.4
-10%
Domestic Container
Grand Total
Million Tonnes
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
YTDFY16
YTDFY17
YTD
FY16 (Apr-June) (Apr-June) Growth (%)
Coal
RM for steel plants
except iron-ore
Pig Iron &
Finished Steel
455.8
496.4
508.1
547.6
551.7
135.7
133.9
-1%
14.5
15.7
17.3
19.0
20.3
4.9
4.9
-1%
34.5
35.3
38.6
40.2
42.7
10.4
10.9
5%
Iron Ore
104.7
111.5
124.2
112.3
117.0
28.5
31.9
12%
Cement
107.6
105.8
109.9
109.7
106.1
28.3
26.1
-8%
45.6
48.3
54.4
53.8
45.8
10.6
10.1
-5%
Foodgrains
Fertilizers
52.7
45.9
44.4
48.1
52.3
12.0
11.2
-7%
POL
41.2
41.6
42.0
42.7
44.0
11.1
11.3
2%
Domestic Container
9.3
9.3
10.9
10.3
9.0
2.4
2.0
-18%
EXIM Container
29.1
31.9
32.6
38.3
37.1
9.2
9.7
5%
Total Container
38.5
41.2
43.5
48.5
46.1
11.6
11.7
1%
Other Goods
74.3
68.1
71.2
76.8
78.0
19.3
19.2
0%
Grand Total
969.5
1009.8
1053.5
1098.7
1104.0
272.4
271.1
0%
Page 6
CMP
(|)
338
65
72
424
TP (|)
325
80
65
500
Rating
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
BUY
Mcap
(| Cr)
5,111.4
4,785.3
3,353.8
1,139.6
EPS (|)
P/E (x)
FY16 FY17E FY18E FY16 FY17E FY18E
68.9 70.3 62.8
4.5
4.4
4.9
-8.0
-3.1 -0.3
NA
NA
NA
8.1 10.1 10.5
8.5
6.9
6.6
28.5 30.5 41.7 14.9
13.9
10.2
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY16 FY17E FY18E
3.4
3.5
3.5
-77.4
39.5
22.6
5.1
5.3
4.5
10.9
9.3
8.2
RoCE (%)
FY16 FY17E FY18E
10.2
8.4
7.3
-4.1
0.5
2.6
4.8
4.3
4.3
7.4
8.0
9.0
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY16 FY17E FY18E
25.8 20.0 15.4
12.5 11.4
9.6
37.0 31.0 25.7
14.9
9.7
7.8
19.2 16.7 13.5
RoCE (%)
FY16 FY17E FY18E
8.8 10.5 12.7
17.4 18.4 20.1
35.9 39.1 43.1
11.4 15.8 17.9
13.4 14.0 15.7
RoE (%)
FY16 FY17E FY18E
12.5 11.6
9.7
-26.9
-9.4 -1.1
5.5
6.3
6.2
5.3
5.1
6.2
CMP
M Cap
(|)
TP(|) Rating (| Cr)
1,470 1,600
BUY 26,321
307
320
BUY 2,335
5,820 7,300
BUY 13,828
162
150
BUY 1,414
164
190
BUY 7,928
EPS (|)
FY16 FY17E FY18E
53.7 40.4 51.1
10.8 12.2 15.0
81.2 87.0 109.6
4.2
7.1
8.6
4.9
4.6
5.5
P/E (x)
FY16 FY17E FY18E
36.4 28.8 23.0
26.4 23.5 19.0
72.6 67.8 53.8
40.7 24.0 19.8
36.6 39.0 32.6
RoE (%)
FY16 FY17E FY18E
9.7 11.2 12.8
11.9 12.5 13.7
46.6 41.1 42.5
6.6 10.6 11.7
11.7
9.9 10.5
Page 7
Glossary
Tankers
VLCC
Suezmax
Aframax
Small Tankers
Bulkers
Capesize
Panamax
Handymax
Handysize
Offshore
Drill ship
Offshore drilling vessel capable to drill in water depths up to 6000 meter. (Deepwater drilling)
Semi submersible rig Offshore drilling vessel capable to drill in water depths up to 2000 meter. (Deepwater drilling)
Jack up rig
Offshore drilling vessel capable to drill in water depths up to 350 meter. (Shallow water drilling)
AHTS
Anchor handling tag supply vessel used for positioning of jack up rigs.
PSV
Platform support vessel used for transport of men and material to oil platform and jack up rigs.
LPG
VLGC
LGC
MGC
Miscellaneous
DWT
LDT
TCY
TEU
Time Charter Yield measures the operating profit of a ship on a daily basis.
Twenty-foot Equivalent Units
Page 8
RATING RATIONALE
Pankaj Pandey
Head Research
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
Page 9
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Bharat Chhoda, MBA; Ankit Panchmatia, MBA Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately
reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this
report.
Page 10