Quick Comment

March 17, 2016

Rating matrix
Rating
Target
Target Period
Potential Upside

:
:
:
:

Bharti Airtel (BHATE)

Buy
| 380
12 months
12%

Augments spectrum portfolio with Videocon deal...

Key Financials
| Crore
Net Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
EPS (|)

FY14
85,864
27,777
2,773
6.9

FY15
92,135
31,323
5,184
13.0

FY16E
96,520
33,838
5,839
14.6

FY17E
105,346
37,955
6,673
16.7

FY14
48.9
54.8
7.2
2.3
4.6
8.2

FY15
26.1
29.3
6.3
2.2
9.9
11.1

FY16E
23.2
26.0
6.5
2.1
6.3
10.3

FY17E
20.3
22.8
5.6
2.0
9.6
11.6

Valuation summary
P/E
Target P/E
EV / EBITDA
P/BV
RoNW (%)
RoCE (%)

Price Chart
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000

550
450
350
250
150
Mar-16

Sep-15

Mar-15

Sep-14

Apr-14

Oct-13

Apr-13

50

Price (R.H.S)

| 339

Nifty (L.H.S)

Research Analyst
Bhupendra Tiwary
bhupendra.tiwary@icicisecurities.com
Sneha Agarwal
sneha.agarwal@icicisecurities.com

Bharti Airtel (Airtel) has entered into a definitive agreement with Videocon
Telecommunications to acquire the right to use spectrum (2*5 MHz
spectrum in the 1800 MHz band) in its six circles of Bihar, Haryana,
Madhya Pradesh, UP (East), UP (West) and Gujarat for a consideration of
| 4428 crore. The move comes in just after Idea Cellular terminated its
spectrum trading agreement with Videocon Telecom for the latter's
Gujarat and UP West circles, signed for a consideration of | 3310 crore.
The abovementioned six circles contribute ~24% to Airtels adjusted
gross revenues and constitute ~32.1% of its total subscriber base. Post
the agreement, Airtel would have an extended high speed data capability
in circles of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh (West) and get additional bandwidth for
the remaining four circles. The pricing of the deal translates to a ~21% (if
we consider the deal price to be inclusive of service tax levy) premium to
the base prices recommended by Trai (recommended at ~| 3205 crore
for these six circles). The premium, we believe, is an offset to the pricing
uncertainty surrounding an auction scenario. The deal will, however,
alleviate the debt levels for Airtel, which were at ~| 78816 crore (as of
Q3FY16). We will, however, include the deal consideration in the
financials once the deal is through. We continue to rate the stock as BUY
with a target price of | 380 based on a DCF based valuation.
Readying itself for big fight with Reliance Jio
Bharti Airtel is already in a sweet spot with regard to the 4G offering with
its first mover advantage. The company has embarked on a huge capex
spree to augment its 4G coverage in India and propped up its capex
spend to | 60,000 crore (over the next three years). This acquisition will
help Airtel further strengthen its spectrum portfolio and help service its
subscribers better with a strong ground ahead of Reliance Jios launch.
Moreover, it also keeps the company better placed ahead of the biggest
auctions in the telecom space.
Exhibit 1: Airtel subscribers, revenue distribution in circles where spectrum is acquired...
Circles
Bihar
Gujarat
Haryana
Madhya Pradesh
UP (East)
UP (West)
Total

Circle AGR/Total Airtel AGR

(FY15)(%)
8.9
2.0
0.7
3.6
6.2
2.7
24.1

Circle Subscribers/Total Airtel Subscribers (Dec15)(%)

11.1
3.4
1.2
5.0
8.2
3.3
32.1

Source: TRAI, ICICIdirect.com Research

Maintain BUY with target price | 380

The two major issues that have been an overhang clouding the prospects
of the telecom sector are the upcoming spectrum auctions and the
impending Jio launch. Airtel, being the market leader, is well placed to
battle the storm as it did in the hyper competitive phase of 2008-12.
Keeping in mind, the huge potential from data and Airtels first mover
advantage in terms of 4G, we expect Airtel to benefit from higher
operating leverage leading to EBITDA margins of 36% by FY17E. We have
not factored in the contours of the deal in financials now. We continue to
maintain BUY recommendation with a DCF based target price of | 380.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Bhupendra Tiwary (MBA), Sneha Agarwal (MBA), Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report
accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s)
or view(s) in this report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited is a Sebi registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is,
inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is Indias largest private sector bank and
has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (associates), the details in
respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.
ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment
banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons
reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.
The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential
and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any
form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the
information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has
been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory
capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.
This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed.
This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or
other financial
instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of
their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific
circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment
objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently
evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities
whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure
Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not
predictions and may be subject to change without notice.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other
assignment in the past twelve months.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for
services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific
transaction.
ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies
mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.
ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its analysts did not receive any
compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research
Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.
It is confirmed that Bhupendra Tiwary (MBA), Sneha Agarwal (MBA) Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the
preceding twelve months.
Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.
ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding
the publication of the research report.
Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject
company/companies mentioned in this report.
It is confirmed that Bhupendra Tiwary (MBA), Sneha Agarwal (MBA), Research Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.
ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.
Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.
We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such
distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such
jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are
required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 2