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[DAILY PETROSPECTIVE] June 9, 2010
Early Evening Market Review for Wednesday
Wednesday was an active day, and traders had a good deal more to
think about. The biggest factor was this week’s Department of Energy
(DOE) report, which showed a smaller drawdown in crude oil stocks
than the API report had shown, but one that was still larger than the
average estimates of the wire service surveys. The change in crude oil
inventories has become sort of the “standard‐bearer” of each week’s
statistics, and the drawdown gave the re[port a bullish flavor that
quickly translated into higher oil prices. These were supported through
the Nymex close by stronger equities and a stronger euro. Neither of
those could finish on a strong note, though.
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CAMERON HANOVER
[DAILY PETROSPECTIVE] June 9, 2010
This week’s DOE statistical survey showed a drawdown in crude oil stocks of 1.829 million barrels. Distillate
stocks increased by 1.836 million barrels, while gasoline stocks fell by 0.008 million barrels. The DOE report
also showed a bigger increase in refinery utilization, which it had up 1.6%, as opposed to the API report’s
increase of 0.2%. Utilization often increases into Independence Day, and it may follow that pattern this year.
It was the first case ob back‐to‐back crude oil stock
draws in a row since January, and that suggested to
DOE Report
Crude Stocks dn 1.829 mln bbls
traders that recently burdensome inventories may be
Distillate up 1.836 starting to diminish. Of course, crude oil stocks, now
Gasoline dn 0.008 200,000 barrels (0.06%) below year‐ago figures, are still
Utilization up 1.6% to 89.1% an astonishing 59.2 million barrels (19.59%) higher than
Crude Imports up 0.008 mln to 9.535 mln bpd they wwere two years ago this week. And, at some
point, higher utilization could just be turning high crude
oil stocvks into even higher refined products stocks.
Distillate stocks are now only 5.1 million barrels higher
than they were a year ago. But they are 40.8 million bbls more than in 2008 (35.78%). Gasoline stocks, which
are only 8.9 million bbls higher than they were two years ago, are 17.4 million bbls (8.63%) higher than they
were a year ago.
Four‐week demand remained relatively robust, although almost every single product saw its year‐on‐year
percentage increase down from a week ago. Total products supplied were up 7.26% against a year ago, but
had been up 8.12% a week ago. Four‐week distillate demand is now up 12.14%, but was up 17.06% a week
ago. And four‐week gasoline demand has turned negative, and is now 1.01% lower than a year ago, compared
to having been up 0.48% a week ago.
It was seen as being a bullish DOE rerport, and we think it was. But, the oil markets are not only influenced
by supply and demand factors and more investment‐inclined buyers in the oil markets are sure to feel exposed
by Wednesday’s late slide in both the euro and in equities. After having been well into positive territory just
before noon, the DJIA fell from its high then to finish down 40.73 points at 9899.25. And the euro, so
desperate for any stregth at all, dropped from its pre‐noon high to finish below $1.20 per euro. This weakness
in two widely‐watched outside influences could affect oil prices overnight and into Thursday.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Chart
Yesterday’s strength gave technical traders hope that a double bottom type pattern might be forming.
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