II

Trouble Spots

Conflicts in Africa are sources not only of humanitarian concern.

They effect important U.S. security objectives as well as the
achievement of international norms of conduct that are vital to
America’s moral values. In this section, ‘‘Trouble Spots,’’ we deal
with several conflicts that touch on these various interests and the
difficulties in addressing them.
Zimbabwe is a tragic country. Over the past decade, President
Robert Mugabe has steadily destroyed the commercial farming
economy of the country, stripped away the protection of law by
undermining and intimidating the judiciary, closed down much of
the independent press, rigged elections, and ruthlessly crushed
opposition. The result is a country nearly in ‘‘free fall.’’ Inflation
exceeds 2,000 percent, unemployment in some estimates is as high
as 80 percent, millions of Zimbabweans have fled the country,
and those remaining rely heavily on the support of international
humanitarian agencies and the remittances of their relatives abroad.
Yet somehow, neither the surrounding states, the African Union,
nor the international community as a whole has been able to alter
these developments. In his article on ‘‘The Limits of Influence,’’
Princeton N. Lyman explains how such happenings in a country
cannot only go on without being stopped, but also how the interna-
tional community is perforce an enabler in Mugabe’s continuing
authoritarian rule. Only Mugabe’s recent excesses of brutality, and
uneasiness within his own party, may portend an end to this
situation.

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Darfur, the western region of Sudan, has on the other hand
captured the world’s attention. With at least 200,000 people dead,
2.5 million displaced, and continuing harassment and violence
against the survivors, Darfur has challenged the world’s commit-
ment of ‘‘never again,’’ i.e., to prevent genocide such as happened
in World War II and again in Rwanda in 1984. In this situation,
unlike Zimbabwe, the United States and the United Nations have
been actively involved, seeking to end the conflict that began in
2003, to bring an international peace force into the region to protect
the displaced, and to punish those accused of the most egregious
offenses. The Africa Union has been similarly engaged, providing
the only peacekeepers in the region so far, but at levels and equip-
ment woefully below what is needed. For all these efforts, the
situation remains nearly as bad today as it has been for the past
four years. Lee Feinstein has put this conflict into the context of
the commitment, made at the UN’s Millennium summit, that it
is the responsibility of the international community to protect
those in any nation whose government cannot or will not protect
them from widespread violations of their human rights and threats
to their very survival. Feinstein demonstrates the difficulties that
face nations and institutions in carrying out this commitment in
Darfur and provides clear and practical recommendations not only
for the immediate crisis in Darfur but for similar situations in
the future.
Eben Kaplan’s article traces the development of the terrorist
infiltration in Somalia, and the complexities of how to address it.
For fourteen years, the conditions within Somalia simmered below
the surface of American attention. Burned by the debacle of U.S
military intervention in 1992–93, when eighteen U.S. servicemen
were killed and some dragged through the streets of Mogadishu,
the United States largely stayed out of the many subsequent but
largely ineffective efforts by neighboring African states to bring
some kind of order and centralized government to the country.
America’s interest, especially after 9/11, focused almost exclusively
on trying to capture alleged terrorists who had taken refuge there.
But in 2006, America’s interests were seriously challenged when
an Islamic movement, similar in its initial strategy to the Taliban
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in Afghanistan, swept to power in Mogadishu, providing for the
first time in decades order, the protection of commerce, and the
potential for national government. The movement was, however,
also determined to impose a strict Islamic system of laws and
culture on the country, and was led by some who were on the U.S.
and the UN’s terrorist lists. Ethiopia, whose interests were similarly
challenged by this movement, swept the new government out of
power in a lightning military attack in December 2006. But the
result has been a guerrilla war, pitting insurgents against both
the Ethiopian military and the fledging Somalian government it
protects. An Africa Union peacekeeping force, barely mobilized,
faces similar opposition. Mogadishu has thus once again become
the scene of daily fighting, mortars, and casualties. Hundreds of
thousands have fled the capital, creating a major humanitarian
crisis. The United States faces a more difficult challenge than ever
in trying to address the dangers of this failing state.
Somalia brings into relief the larger security threats that exist
in the Horn of Africa. Professor Terrence Lyons examines these
in his report. The Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict, which he addresses,
has the potential to spill over into the larger region of the Horn
of Africa. Sudan, Somalia, Uganda and Kenya are all drawn into
the complexities of the Horn’s conflicts. For the United States,
there is the special dilemma of dealing with an Ethiopian regime
that is its most valuable ally in the war on terror in this region,
but that has stepped back from the promising opening toward
democracy of two years ago and that faces internal threats of its
own. Not surprisingly, the U.S. Senate has been calling for the
Bush administration to develop a comprehensive policy toward
the Horn. John Prendergast and Colin Thomas-Jensen offer one
approach to developing such a policy.

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