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CHAPTER II
PROBABILITY
2.1 Probability
Probability is a field of mathematics that deals with chance. We begin our discussion with a
few basic concepts and useful terminologies.
An experiment is an activity in which the results cannot be predicted with certainty.
Each repetition of an experiment is called a trial.
An outcome is a result of an experiment.
An event is any collection of outcomes, and a
Simple event is an event with only one possible outcome.
The sample space for a given experiment is a set S that contains all possible outcomes of the
experiment.
In any experiment for which the sample space is S, the probability of an event occurring is
given by the formula
n (event )
Sample space
P (event )
n (samplespac e )
Event

Example 1: A coin is tossed. Find


a) the sample space
b) the probability of getting a head
Solution: Experiment = tossing the coin
a) Sample Space = S = { H, T} ans.
H= head T= tail
ns = 2
b) E= getting a head nE = 1
1
PE =
ans
2
Example 2: Two cards are drawn from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards, what is the
probability that two are both face cards?

Solution: Face cards = J,Q &K


nS = 52C2 = 1326
E=both are face cards
nE = 12C2 = 66
66
11
PE =
=
0.04977 ( 4significant figures ) ans .
1326 221
Tree diagrams are used for a finite sequence of experiments in which the outcomes of each
experiment depend on the outcomes of the preceding experiments.
ILLUSTRATION:

P(tournament reaches game 5)=4/10 = 2/5


2.2 Probability Postulates
For every event A of a sample space S, 0 < P(A) < 1.
If event A equals the sample space S, then

P(A) = P(S) = 1.

General Addition Rule


Probability of event A or event B = P(AUB)
Where A and B are not mutually exclusive events (intersection is not empty)

P A B P A P B P A B
S
A

A B

If events A and B are the subsets of S and have no elements in common, then
P A B P A P B .
S
B

P(A or B) = P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B)


If A and B are mutually exclusive events (disjoint sets)
Example:
Find the probability of drawing a pair or two red cards when two cards are drawn
at random from a 52-card deck. ANS. 0.2941
Example: Find the probability of drawing a pair of aces or two face cards when two cards are
drawn at random from a 52-card deck. ANS. 0.0543
Complement of a set
A is called the complement of A with respect to a set S if
i) A A' S
ii) A A'
S
A

If A is the complement of an event A with respect to a sample space S, then


P(A) = 1 P(A).

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Example 1: Rolling a die twice. Find the probability of getting two different numbers.
Solution:
S={(x,y)/ x=number on 1st trial, y=number on 2nd trial}
n S=6 ( 6 )=36 (ordered pairs)
E=getting two different numbers
E=complement of E = getting the same numbers = {(1,1),(2,2),(3,3),(4,4),(5,5),(6,6)}
6 1
PE ' = =
36 6
1 5
PE =1 = ans.
6 6

Example: Find the probability of drawing two face cards that do not form a pair when two face
cards are drawn at random from a 52-card deck.

Pairs: P=( 3{4C2})/(12C2)=3/11


Complement(not pair): P=1-(3/11)=8/11

Example2: Find the probability of getting at least two 4s in a roll of three dice.
ANS. 0.07407
Solution:
S = {(x,y,z)/ x= number on 1st die, y=number on 2nd die, z=number on 3rd die}
nS= 6 x 6 x 6 = 216
E=getting at least two 4s minimum is two two 4s + three 4s
E= {(4,4,1), (4,4,2), (4,4,3), (4,4,4), (4,4,5), (4,4,6), (1,4,4), (2,4,4), (3,4,4), (5,4,4)
(6,4,4), (4,1,4), (4,2,4), (4,3,4), (4,5,4), (4,6,4)}
P(E) = 16/216 = 2/27 or 0.07407
ANS: 0.07407
Example 3
A manufacturing company can have 5 defective chips for every 100 it
produces. If five chips are selected at random, what is the probability of getting at least
one defective? ANS. 0.2304

5
Solution:
100 chips ( D=5, N=95) select 5 chips at random
D=defective, N=nondefective
100
Sample Space: S = 100C5
5
E=getting at least one defective minimum is 1 defective { D=1 N=4, D=2 N=3,
D=3 N=2, D=4 N=1 and D=5 N=0} 5 cases
Direct Method:

( )

5 95
5 95
5 95
5 95
(
)(
)
(
)(
)
(
)(
)
(
1 4
2 3
3 2
4 )( 1 )
P ( E )=
+
+
+
(1005) (1005) ( 1005) (1005)
Complement Method:
E= All are non defective (D=0)
5 95
0 5
P ( E ' )=
=0.7696
100
5

( )( )
( )

P(E) = 1 P(E) = 1 0.7696 = 0.2304 ans.

(55)(950) =0.2304 ANS


( 1005)

SEATWORK

Example 5:
Suppose that in a senior college class of 500 students it is found that 210 smoke, 258
drink alcoholic beverages, 216 eat between meals, 122 smoke and drink alcoholic
beverages, 83 eat between meals and drink alcoholic beverages, 97 smoke and eat
between meals, and 52 engage in all three of these bad health practices. If a member of
this senior class is selected, find the probability that the student
a) Smokes but does not drink alcoholic beverages. ANS. 22/125
b) Eats between meals and drinks alcoholic beverages but does not smoke. ANS. 31/500
c) Neither smokes nor eats between meals. 171/500
VENN DIAGRAM: S=210, D= 258, E= 216, S&D=122, E&D=83, S&E=97, S,E&D=52
U=500
S

E
2.3 Conditional Probability
The conditional probability of an event is the probability of the event, given that
another event has occurred. Let A and B be the two events in a sample space S. The
conditional probability of an event B occurring given that A has occurred is defined to be

P BlA

P A B
P A

if

P A 0 .

OR:
P ( A B)
if P(B) 0
P (B)
P ( A B ) =P (B A)

P ( A /B )=
Note:

Example 6 Two dice are rolled in succession and the first die shows a three. Knowing this,
find the probability that the sum shown by the dice is five, six, or seven.
ANSWER: P(B\A)=1/2, P(A/B)= 1/5
Solution:
Rolling two dice S={(x,y)/ x=number on the 1st die, y=number on 2nd die}
nS= 6 x 6 = 36 (possible outcomes)
Let A = the first die shows a three
B = the sum is 5, 6 or 7
P(B/A)=?
A = {(3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6)}
B={(1,4),(1,5),(1,6),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(5,1),(5,2),(6,1)}
. A B={( 3,2 ) , ( 3,3 ) , ( 3,4 ) }
nA = 6, nB = 15, n ( A B )=3
3
)
P ( A B ) 36
1
P ( B/ A )=
=
= ans
6
2
P(A)
( )
36
P(A/B)=?
(

3
( )
P ( A B ) 36
1
P ( A /B )=
=
= ans .
15
5
P (B)
( )
36

2.3.1

If A and B are two events in a sample space S with P(A)>0 and P(B)>0, then

P A B P B P AlB or P A B P A P BlA

Example 7: Two cards are selected at random from a standard deck. What is the
probability that the first is an 8 and the second is a queen if:
a) the first card is not replaced before the second is selected? ANS: 4/663
b) The first card is replaced before the second is selected ? ANS: 1/169
Solution: 52 cards = Sample space (2 cards are drawn in succession)
A = first card is 8
B = second card is a queen
a) w/o replacement
P ( AB )=P ( A B )=P( A) P (B / A)
4
4
4
P ( A B)=
=
ans
52 51 663
b) w/replacement (B is not dependent on A)

( )( )

P ( AB )=P ( A B )=P ( A ) P ( B )
4
4
1
P ( A B)=
=
ans
52 52 169

( )( )

2.3.2

Product Rule for independent Events


If A and B are independent events, then
P ( AB )=P ( A B )=P ( A ) P ( B ) .

Note:

P( A/ B)=P( A)

P( B/ A )=P(B)

and

Example 8
A roulette wheel contains 38 numbers of which 18 are red, 18 are black
and two are green. When the roulette ball is spun, it is equally likely to land on any of the
38 numbers. In two plays at wheel, what is the probability that
a) the ball lands on black both times? ANS: 81/361
b) the ball lands on green the first time and on red on the second time? ANS:
9/361
Solution: Sample space = 38 numbers (B = 18, R=18, G =2)
a) A = black on the 1st play
B = black on the 2nd play
Plays are independent. Thus,
81
ans
( 1838 )( 1838 )= 361

P ( AB )=P ( A B )=P ( A ) P ( B )=
b) A = green on 1st play
B = red on 2nd play

( 382 )( 1838 )= 3619 ans

P ( AB )=P ( A B )=P ( A ) P ( B )=

Example 9
A box contains 3 defective and 4 non defective transistors. One randomly
selects a transistor (without replacement) until a nondefective one is obtained. What is the
probability that the number of transistors selected is three? ANS: 4/35
Note: When the number of transistors selected is 3, the first two transistors are defective and the
third should be nondefective. P(DDN)=3
Example: The probability that a man will live 10 more years is , and the probability that his
wife will live 10 more years is 1/3. Find the probability that a) both will be alive in 10 years, b)
at least one will be alive in 10 years c) neither will be alive in 10 years, d) only the wife will be
alive in 10 years.
ANSWERS: 1/12, 1/2 , 1/2 ,1/4
Exercise 2.79 (Walpole) : A random sample of 200 adults are classified below by sex and their
level of education attained.
Education
Male
Female
Elementary
38
45
Secondary
28
50
College
22
17
If a person is picked at random from this group, find the probability that
a) the person is a male, given that the person has a secondary education;
b) the person does not have a college degree, given that the person is a female.
Solution: M = the person is a male , S = has secondary education
P(M S)
28 /200
14
=
= ans .
a) P(M/S) =
P(S )
(28+50)/200 39
C = has college degree, F = the person is a female
P(C' F )
( 45+50)/200
95
b) P(C/F)=
=
=
ans .
P( F)
(45+50+17)/200 112
c)
Follow up Q: What is the probability that the person is not male given that the person has no
college degree? P(M/C) = 95/161 ans
2.4 Bayes Theorem
Suppose U1, U2, U3,, Un are mutually exclusive events whose union is the entire sample
space. Let E be an event with non zero probability. Then

P Ui lE
SW

P Ui E
P E .

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Example 9 Three professors administer a common exam to their classes of 40 students each.
Suppose that 32 of the students in class A, 30 of the students in class B, and 30 of the
students in class C pass the exam. If a student who has passed the exam is chosen at random,
what is the probability that the student is in class A?
SW: 2.106 p.73
2.81,p65, ans: 0.35, 0.875, 0.55 2.86 p66 ans: a) 0.34 b) 5/7 c) 1/12
SEATWORK