Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
NDICE
Contenido
Pgina
1.
OBJETIVO ............................................................................................................................................ 2
2.
GENERALIDADES ................................................................................................................................ 2
3.
4.
2.1.
UBICACIN ................................................................................................................................. 2
2.2.
2.3.
CLIMA ........................................................................................................................................ 2
3.2.
3.3.
3.4.
4.2.
4.3.
5.
6.
CONCLUSIONES ................................................................................................................................ 16
7.
ANEXOS ............................................................................................................................................ 17
-1-
1.
OBJETIVO
Evaluacin hidrolgica de las quebradas que cruzan la lnea de conduccin de agua en el
tramo VilachaullaniChuapalca, orientado a la determinacin de mximas avenidas para
diferentes perodos de retorno que permitir proponer y disear las estructuras hidrulicas de
cruce ms adecudas para evitar atenuar los impactos del flujo del perodo de lluvias.
2.
GENERALIDADES
2.1. Ubicacin
La zona de estudio est ubicada polticamente en la Regin Tacna, Provincia de Tarata,
Distritos de Suspaya y Tarata en las coordenadas geogrficas de 1710 a 1728 de latitud
Sur y 6945 a 7000 de longitud Oeste; a una altitud promedio de 4300 msnm. En la figura
01 se presenta la ubicacin de la zona de estudio.
-2-
Figura 01
Ubicacin de Zona de Estudio
3.
-3-
Cuadro 01
Principales Caracteristicas de las Microcuencas Tramo I
N de Qda
Este (m)
Norte (m)
Altitud
(msnm)
Progresiva
402155
8096370
4340
0+798
Quebrada Putina-Borateras
402758
8095965
4339
1+584
Quebrada en Kovire-Chilicolpa
403483
8095516
4342
2+451
403988
8095000
4339
3+318
405082
8094586
4338
4+562
Quebrada Chapoccahua
409194
8092881
4333
10+370
Quebrada 06
409273
8092817
4332
10+478
Quebrada 07
413480
8091930
4332
15+754
Quebrada Titire
413825
8091552
4327
16+282
10
414604
8087140
4318
21+394
Quebrada Negrote
11
415716
8086667
4268
22+607
12
416606
8086629
4262
23+613
Quebrada (alcantarilla)
13
416898
8086453
4267
24+975
Quebrada (alcantarilla)
14
418458
8086039
4258
25+594
Quebrada (3 alcantarillas)
15
422004
8085605
4241
29+221
Quebrada Kallapuma
16
423451
8085892
4258
29+685
Quebrada 16
17
423725
8085947
4270
30+975
Quebrada 17
18
423945
8086152
4286
31+298
Quebrada 18
19
424215
8086441
4287
31+711
Quebrada 19
20
424334
8086446
4287
31+829
Quebrada 20
21
424471
8086467
4285
31+985
Quebrada 21
22
424506
8086484
4286
32+025
Quebrada 22
23
424526
8086509
4287
32+060
Quebrada 23
24
424725
8086674
4287
32+336
Quebrada 24
25
424758
8086824
4287
31+491
Quebrada 25
26
424911
8086873
4285
32+699
Quebrada 26
27
425356
8087227
4287
33+336
Quebrada 27
28
425381
8087228
4287
33+360
Quebrada 28
29
425408
8087276
4287
33+419
Quebrada 29
30
425411
8087291
4287
33+434
Quebrada 30
31
425421
8087324
4287
33+469
Quebrada 31
32
425449
8087381
4287
33+533
Quebrada 32
33
425648
8087527
4287
33+808
Quebrada 33
34
425716
8087521
4287
33+876
Quebrada 34
35
425936
8087594
4284
34+108
Quebrada 35
36
426086
8087674
4287
34+282
Quebrada 36
37
426857
8088012
4287
35+153
Quebrada 37
38
427297
8087993
4283
35+630
Quebrada 38
39
427465
8087902
4284
35+894
Quebrada 39
40
427693
8087538
4284
36+383
Quebrada 40
41
427984
8087395
4284
36+848
Quebrada 41
42
428735
8086935
4284
38+163
Quebrada 42
43
428677
8086600
4283
38+550
Quebrada 43
44
428781
8086314
4283
38+864
Quebrada 44
45
429198
8085529
4282
39+823
Quebrada 45
46
429249
8085323
4280
40+068
Quebrada 46
47
429850
8085330
4281
40+704
Quebrada 47
-4-
Descripcin
Fotografia 01: Quebrada Putina que tiene un rea de drenaje de 10,68 Km2
hasta la zona de cruce con el trazo del canal del Tramo VilachaullaniChuapalca.
-5-
-6-
4.
TIEMPO EN AOS
PUNO
VILACOTA
-7-
CHUAPALCA
AOS
30 min
60 min
90 min
120 min
180 min
6 horas
12 horas
24 horas
1965
10,5
18,5
21,6
27,0
31,5
41,5
44,7
46,2
1966
10,0
19,0
22,5
25,5
22,7
38,2
41,4
45,2
1967
7,4
10,0
16,6
16,9
17,0
30,4
33,3
37,7
1968
11,3
15,7
17,6
19,4
21,5
26,8
27,6
29,8
1969
10,0
16,8
21,7
25,1
28,5
30,2
30,2
30,2
1970
8,5
11,6
14,7
18,0
20,4
25,3
35,7
36,3
1971
20,0
26,1
28,3
29,9
32,2
33,9
42,3
46,4
1972
3,0
6,9
9,4
11,9
19,4
33,4
37,0
38,2
1973
9,1
24,3
28,0
29,3
30,9
32,4
40,8
40,8
1974
9,6
14,7
19,2
23,0
27,7
32,5
41,9
53,3
1975
8,6
13,8
16,3
17,6
21,5
33,6
35,3
53,3
1976
7,5
13,2
16,5
17,7
18,9
20,5
20,5
29,6
1977
3,2
7,5
11,0
14,3
19,8
26,2
36,3
37,4
1978
13,0
22,5
24,6
26,1
27,6
29,7
30,8
40,4
1980
8,1
14,5
14,5
14,5
14,6
19,1
23,9
29,1
1982
14,0
24,6
27,6
29,0
31,2
35,8
38,5
42,8
1984
23,0
14,2
19,5
21,4
28,1
42,0
54,7
58,1
1985
13,7
15,7
20,2
23,2
30,6
37,3
37,8
47,7
1986
12,3
16,3
17,7
18,0
20,8
24,5
25,7
26,5
1987
23,1
26,8
29,6
32,0
36,0
39,4
48,0
48,0
1988
2,9
3,8
5,1
5,3
9,9
18,2
28,7
28,7
1989
10,0
16,9
18,0
19,3
20,1
23,0
28,6
34,4
Con la finalidad de correlacionar los registros de la estacin Puno con el rea del
proyecto, se ha introducido un factor de correccin de 0,67 obtenido relacionando
precipitaciones totales anuales y altitudes de las estaciones de Chuapalca y Vilacota
que son estaciones representativas del rea del proyecto. La precipitacin mxima
transferida al rea de proyecto se presenta en el cuadro 03.
Con la informacin correlacionada se ha evaluado la precipitacin mxima para
diferentes perodos retorno empleando el Modelo FlFreq. Los resultados se presentan
en el cuadro 04. En el anexo 01 se presentan las salidas del modelo FlFreq.
-8-
Cuadro 03
PRECIPITACIN MXIMA ANUAL DE LAS SUBCUENCAS TRAMO I CANAL CALACHACA
CALCULADO A PARTIR DE LA ESTACIN DE PUNO
PRECIPITACIN (mm)
AOS
30 min
60 min
90 min
120 min
180 min
6 horas
12 horas
24 horas
1965
7,0
12,4
14,5
18,1
21,1
27,8
29,9
31,0
1966
6,7
12,7
15,1
17,1
15,2
25,6
27,7
30,3
1967
5,0
6,7
11,1
11,3
11,4
20,4
22,3
25,3
1968
7,6
10,5
11,8
13,0
14,4
18,0
18,5
20,0
1969
6,7
11,3
14,5
16,8
19,1
20,2
20,2
20,2
1970
5,7
7,8
9,8
12,1
13,7
17,0
23,9
24,3
1971
13,4
17,5
19,0
20,0
21,6
22,7
28,3
31,1
1972
2,0
4,6
6,3
8,0
13,0
22,4
24,8
25,6
1973
6,1
16,3
18,8
19,6
20,7
21,7
27,3
27,3
1974
6,4
9,8
12,9
15,4
18,6
21,8
28,1
35,7
1975
5,8
9,2
10,9
11,8
14,4
22,5
23,7
35,7
1976
5,0
8,8
11,1
11,9
12,7
13,7
13,7
19,8
1977
2,1
5,0
7,4
9,6
13,3
17,6
24,3
25,1
1978
8,7
15,1
16,5
17,5
18,5
19,9
20,6
27,1
1980
5,4
9,7
9,7
9,7
9,8
12,8
16,0
19,5
1982
9,4
16,5
18,5
19,4
20,9
24,0
25,8
28,7
1984
15,4
9,5
13,1
14,3
18,8
28,1
36,6
38,9
1985
9,2
10,5
13,5
15,5
20,5
25,0
25,3
32,0
1986
8,2
10,9
11,9
12,1
13,9
16,4
17,2
17,8
1987
15,5
18,0
19,8
21,4
24,1
26,4
32,2
32,2
1988
1,9
2,5
3,4
3,6
6,6
12,2
19,2
19,2
1989
6,7
11,3
12,1
12,9
13,5
15,4
19,2
23,0
MXIMA
15,5
18,0
19,8
21,4
24,1
28,1
36,6
38,9
Cuadro 03
PRECIPITACIN MXIMA DE LA ESTACIN PLUVIOGRFICA DE PUNO
PRECIPITACIN MAXIMA (mm)
PERIODOS DE
RETORNO
30 min
60 min
1
2
5
10
20
50
100
200
500
1000
2000
5000
10000
6,3
10,0
14,9
18,2
21,3
25,4
28,4
31,4
35,4
38,5
41,5
45,5
48,5
10,3
15,2
21,7
26,0
30,2
35,5
39,6
43,6
48,9
52,9
56,9
62,2
66,1
-9-
14,5
20,3
28,0
33,1
38,0
44,3
49,1
53,8
60,1
64,8
69,5
75,8
80,5
17,8
23,2
30,4
35,2
39,8
45,8
50,2
54,7
60,5
64,9
69,4
75,2
79,6
24,0
29,6
37,0
41,9
46,6
52,7
57,3
61,9
67,9
72,4
77,0
83,0
87,5
28,2
34,4
42,7
48,2
53,5
60,3
65,4
70,5
77,3
82,4
87,4
94,2
99,3
32,1
38,5
47,1
52,8
58,3
65,4
70,7
76,0
83,0
88,3
93,5
101,0
106,0
Con la finalidad de correlacionar los registros de la estacin Puno con el rea del proyecto, se
ha introducido un factor de correccin de 0,67 obtenido relacionando precipitaciones totales
anuales y altitudes de las estaciones de Chuapalca y Vilacota que son estaciones
representativas del rea del proyecto. La precipitacin mxima transferida al rea de proyecto
se presenta en el cuadro 04.
Cuadro 04
Precipitacin Mxima en el rea del Proyecto
PERIODO
RETORNO
30 min
60 min
1
4,22
6,90
2
6,70
10,18
5
9,98
14,54
10
12,19
17,42
20
14,27
20,23
50
17,02
23,79
100
19,03
26,53
200
21,04
29,21
500
23,72
32,76
1000
25,80
35,44
2000
27,81
38,12
5000
30,49
41,67
10000
32,50
44,29
Fuente: Elaboracin propia.
12 Hr
18,89
23,05
28,61
32,29
35,85
40,40
43,82
47,24
51,79
55,21
58,56
63,11
66,53
24 Hr
21,51
25,80
31,56
35,38
39,06
43,82
47,37
50,92
55,61
59,16
62,65
67,67
71,02
- 10 -
Microcuenca
Progresiva
Cruce Con
Canal
Proyectado
Coordenadas
UTM Este (m)
Coordenadas
UTM Norte (m)
Cota Inicio de
Cauce de
Microcuenca
(msnm)
Cota Zona de
Cruce de Tubera
Proyectada
(msnm)
rea de Drenaje
(Km2)
Cuadro 05
Parmetros Geomorfolgicos de Microcuencas del rea del Proyecto
Longitud
de Cauce
Principal
(m)
Quebrada Putina-Borateras
0+798
402155
8096370
5155
4340
10,68
6754
0,12
Quebrada en KovireChilicolpa
1+584
402758
8095965
4510
4339
0,48
968
0,18
2+451
403483
8095516
4450
4342
0,22
801
0,13
3+318
403988
8095000
4420
4339
0,09
426
0,19
Quebrada Chapoccahua
4+562
405082
8094586
5100
4338
30,44
8486
0,09
Quebrada 06
10+370
409194
8092881
4340
4333
0,04
162
0,04
Quebrada 07
10+478
409273
8092817
4345
4332
0,09
129
0,10
Quebrada Titire
15+754
413480
8091930
4505
4332
0,72
654
0,26
16+282
413825
8091552
4450
4327
0,02
159
0,77
10
Quebrada Negrote
21+394
414604
8087140
5000
4318
15,56
10479
0,07
11
Quebrada Mamuta
(alcantarilla)
22+607
415716
8086667
4998
4268
13,29
6677
0,11
12
Quebrada (alcantarilla)
23+613
416606
8086629
4450
4262
11,47
5289
0,04
13
Quebrada (alcantarilla)
24+975
416898
8086453
4410
4267
3,72
5162
0,03
14
Quebrada (3 alcantarillas)
25+594
418458
8086039
5150
4258
46,89
19433
0,05
15
Quebrada Kallapuma
(alcantarilla)
29+221
422004
8085605
5255
4241
221,12
22094
0,05
16
Quebrada 16
29+685
423451
8085892
4405
4258
0,53
1058
0,14
17
Quebrada 17
30+975
423725
8085947
4470
4270
0,36
1094
0,18
18
Quebrada 18
31+298
423945
8086152
4305
4286
0,08
297
0,06
19
Quebrada 19
31+711
424215
8086441
4955
4287
1,31
2641
0,25
20
Quebrada 20
31+829
424334
8086446
4310
4287
0,06
306
0,08
21
Quebrada 21
31+985
424471
8086467
4340
4285
0,04
326
0,17
22
Quebrada 22
32+025
424506
8086484
4550
4286
0,64
1045
0,25
23
Quebrada 23
32+060
424526
8086509
4325
4287
0,03
298
0,13
24
Quebrada 24
32+336
424725
8086674
4325
4287
0,02
173
0,22
25
Quebrada 25
31+491
424758
8086824
4303
4287
0,02
177
0,09
26
Quebrada 26
32+699
424911
8086873
4700
4285
0,82
1576
0,26
27
Quebrada 27
33+336
425356
8087227
4475
4287
0,31
585
0,32
28
Quebrada 28
33+360
425381
8087228
4345
4287
0,02
205
0,28
29
Quebrada 29
33+419
425408
8087276
4353
4287
0,04
216
0,31
30
Quebrada 30
33+434
425411
8087291
4340
4287
0,01
158
0,34
31
Quebrada 31
33+469
425421
8087324
4320
4287
0,01
115
0,29
32
Quebrada 32
33+533
425449
8087381
4390
4287
0,03
280
0,37
33
Quebrada 33
33+808
425648
8087527
4340
4287
0,01
135
0,39
34
Quebrada 34
33+876
425716
8087521
4360
4287
0,02
172
0,42
35
Quebrada 35
34+108
425936
8087594
4450
4284
0,38
691
0,24
36
Quebrada 36
34+282
426086
8087674
4604
4287
0,82
1529
0,21
37
Quebrada 37
35+153
426857
8088012
4660
4287
1,12
2159
0,17
38
Quebrada 38
35+630
427297
8087993
4340
4283
0,06
388
0,15
39
Quebrada 39
35+894
427465
8087902
4348
4284
0,10
423
0,15
40
Quebrada 40
36+383
427693
8087538
4400
4284
0,43
608
0,19
41
Quebrada 41
36+848
427984
8087395
4600
4284
1,52
1681
0,19
42
Quebrada 42
38+163
428735
8086935
4470
4284
0,45
1091
0,17
43
Quebrada 43
38+550
428677
8086600
4648
4283
1,54
1683
0,22
44
Quebrada 44
38+864
428781
8086314
4450
4283
0,32
651
0,26
45
Quebrada 45
39+823
429198
8085529
4500
4282
0,30
707
0,31
46
Quebrada 46
40+068
429249
8085323
4850
4280
2,24
2145
0,27
47
Quebrada 47
40+704
429850
8085330
4325
4281
0,30
467
0,09
- 11 -
Pendiente
Promedio
del Cauce
Principal
(m/m)
5.
- 12 -
- 13 -
Figura 05
Tiempo de Concentracin y Coeficiente de Almacenamiento de las Subcuencas de Aporte
Figura 06
Tormenta de Diseo Para Diferentes Perodos de Retornamiento de Subcuencas de Aporte
Los resultados de los caudales de mxima avenida obtenidos para las 29 microcuencas se
presentan en el cuadro 06 y en el anexo 02 se muestra los hidrogramas obtenidos del HEC-HMS.
- 14 -
Cuadro 06
Resumen de Resultados de Mximas Avenidas con Periodo de Retorno de 50 Aos
N
Progresiva de
Canal
Proyectado
1
2
Microcuenca
rea de Drenaje
(Km2)
Descarga Mxima
Instantnea (m3/s)
0+798
Quebrada Putina-Borateras
10,68
2,033
1+584
Quebrada en Kovire-Chilicolpa
0,48
0,127
2+451
0,22
0,059
3+318
0,09
0,052
4+562
Quebrada Chapoccahua
30,44
4,237
10+370
Quebrada 06
0,04
0,039
10+478
Quebrada 07
0,09
0,045
15+754
Quebrada Titire
0,72
0,342
16+282
0,02
0,036
10
21+394
Quebrada Negrote
15,56
1,811
11
22+607
13,29
3,966
12
23+613
Quebrada (alcantarilla)
11,47
1,046
13
24+975
Quebrada (alcantarilla)
3,72
0,325
14
25+594
Quebrada (3 alcantarillas)
46,89
4,465
15
29+221
221,12
11,119
16
29+685
Quebrada 16
0,53
0,110
17
30+975
Quebrada 17
0,36
0,165
18
31+298
Quebrada 18
0,08
0,079
19
31+711
Quebrada 19
1,31
0,217
20
31+829
Quebrada 20
0,06
0,099
21
31+985
Quebrada 21
0,04
0,089
22
32+025
Quebrada 22
0,64
0,236
23
32+060
Quebrada 23
0,03
0,145
24
32+336
Quebrada 24
0,02
0,134
25
31+491
Quebrada 25
0,02
0,147
26
32+699
Quebrada 26
0,82
0,409
27
33+336
Quebrada 27
0,31
0,147
28
33+360
Quebrada 28
0,02
0,079
29
33+419
Quebrada 29
0,04
0,047
30
33+434
Quebrada 30
0,01
0,045
31
33+469
Quebrada 31
0,01
0,053
32
33+533
Quebrada 32
0,03
0,156
33
33+808
Quebrada 33
0,01
0,052
34
33+876
Quebrada 34
0,02
0,079
35
34+108
Quebrada 35
0,38
0,192
36
34+282
Quebrada 36
0,82
0,524
37
35+153
Quebrada 37
1,12
0,400
38
35+630
Quebrada 38
0,06
0,125
39
35+894
Quebrada 39
0,10
0,098
40
36+383
Quebrada 40
0,43
0,280
41
36+848
Quebrada 41
1,52
0,306
42
38+163
Quebrada 42
0,45
0,254
43
38+550
Quebrada 43
1,54
0,778
44
38+864
Quebrada 44
0,32
0,208
45
39+823
Quebrada 45
0,30
0,195
46
40+068
Quebrada 46
2,24
0,673
47
40+704
Quebrada 47
0,30
0,195
- 15 -
6.
CONCLUSIONES
Los caudales de mxima avenida han sido determinados mediante la aplicacin del
Modelo Hidrolgico Hec-Hms cuyos factores ms relevantes son: rea de cuenca, tiempo
de concentracin, coeficiente de almacenamiento, nmero de curva y tormenta de diseo
la intensidad de precipitacin y el coeficiente de escorrenta. Los resultados obtenidos
para un perodo de retorno de 50 aos son:
Quebradas
Area (Km2)
Quebrada Putina-Borateras
10,68
Quebrada en Kovire-Chilicolpa 0,48
Erosin en ladera de cerro
0,22
Erosin en ladera de cerro
0,09
Quebrada Chapoccahua
30,44
Quebrada 06
0,04
Quebrada 07
0,09
Quebrada Titire
0,72
Erosin en ladera de cerro
0,02
Quebrada Negrote
15,56
Quebrada Mamuta (alcantarilla) 13,29
Quebrada (alcantarilla)
11,47
Quebrada (alcantarilla)
3,72
Quebrada (3 alcantarillas)
46,89
Quebrada Kallapuma
221,12
Quebrada 16
0,53
Quebrada 17
0,36
Quebrada 18
0,08
Quebrada 19
1,31
Quebrada 20
0,06
Quebrada 21
0,04
Quebrada 22
0,64
Quebrada 23
0,03
Quebrada 24
0,02
Quebrada 25
0,02
Quebrada 26
0,82
Quebrada 27
0,31
Quebrada 28
0,02
Quebrada 29
0,04
Quebrada 30
0,01
Quebrada 31
0,01
Quebrada 32
0,03
Quebrada 33
0,01
Quebrada 34
0,02
Quebrada 35
0,38
Quebrada 36
0,82
Quebrada 37
1,12
Quebrada 38
0,06
Quebrada 39
0,10
Quebrada 40
0,43
Quebrada 41
1,52
- 16 -
Quebrada 42
Quebrada 43
Quebrada 44
Quebrada 45
Quebrada 46
Quebrada 47
7.
0,45
1,54
0,32
0,30
2,24
0,30
0,254
0,778
0,208
0,195
0,673
0,195
ANEXOS
7.1. Anexo 01: Salidas del Modelo Flfreq.
7.2. Anexo 02: Hidrogramas de Precipitacin-Escorrenta del HEC-HMS.
7.3. Anexo 03: Plano de Subcuencas
- 17 -
ANEXO 01
- 18 -
YEAR
DATA
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
80
82
84
85
86
87
88
89
ORDERED
10.5
10.0
7.4
11.3
10.0
8.5
20.0
3.0
9.1
9.6
8.6
7.5
3.2
13.0
8.1
14.0
23.0
13.7
12.3
23.1
2.9
10.0
RANK
23.1
23.0
20.0
14.0
13.7
13.0
12.3
11.3
10.5
10.0
10.0
10.0
9.6
9.1
8.6
8.5
8.1
7.5
7.4
3.2
3.0
2.9
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
PROB.
RET. PERIOD
.027
.072
.117
.162
.207
.252
.297
.342
.387
.432
.477
.523
.568
.613
.658
.703
.748
.793
.838
.883
.928
.973
37.000
13.875
8.538
6.167
4.826
3.964
3.364
2.921
2.581
2.313
2.094
1.914
1.762
1.632
1.521
1.423
1.337
1.261
1.194
1.133
1.078
1.028
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
.4466E+02
0
.4823E+02
0
SAMPLE STATISTICS
MEAN =
11.
S.D. =
5.5
C.S. =
SAMPLE STATISTICS (LOGS)
MEAN =
2.2492
S.D. =
.5653
C.S. =
SAMPLE MIN =
3.
SAMPLE MAX =
23.
N = 22
PARAMETERS FOR GUMBEL I
A = .229660
U =
8.
PARAMETERS FOR LOGNORMAL
M = 2.2492
S = .5653
PARAMETERS FOR THREE PARAMETER LOGNORMAL
A =
-7.
STATISTICS OF LOG(X-A)
MEAN =
2.8146
S.D. =
.3094
C.S. =
PARAMETERS FOR LOG PEARSON III BY MOMENTS
A = -.2062
PARAMETERS FOR LOG PEARSON III BY MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD
DISTRIBUTION STATISTICS
GUMBEL I
RETURN
PERIOD
1.005
1.050
1.250
2.000
5.000
10.000
20.000
50.000
100.0
200.0
500.0
1000.0
2000.0
5000.0
10000.0
MEAN =
2.2492
LOGNORMAL
FLOOD
ST. ERROR FLOOD
ST.ERROR
ESTIMATE PERCENT ESTIMATE PERCENT
1.1
3.5
6.3
10.0
14.9
18.2
21.3
25.4
28.4
31.4
35.4
38.5
41.5
45.5
48.5
11.20
11.80
12.30
12.90
13.20
13.50
13.80
14.00
14.20
14.40
14.50
2.2
3.7
5.9
9.5
15.3
19.6
24.0
30.3
35.3
40.7
48.3
54.6
61.2
70.1
77.6
14.00
16.30
18.50
21.30
23.20
25.00
27.30
29.00
30.60
32.50
33.90
S.D. =
4.3339
C.K. =
4.1803
M =
S =
2.8146
-.0061
B = .7515E+01
.5522
FLOOD
ST. ERROR
ESTIMATE PERCENT
11.10
12.50
14.50
17.70
20.10
22.60
25.80
28.20
30.50
33.30
35.50
- 19 -
C.K. =
A = -.1875
THREE PARAMETER
LOGNORMAL
.9
3.4
6.3
10.1
15.0
18.2
21.1
24.9
27.7
30.4
34.1
36.9
39.7
43.3
46.1
.9041
-.7296
.3094
C.K. =
3.7722
LOG(M) = 3.7990
B = .8678E+01
C.S. = -.6789
11.10
11.20
12.20
14.40
16.70
19.20
22.70
25.50
28.20
31.70
34.40
FLOOD
ST. ERROR
ESTIMATE PERCENT
1.5
3.4
6.1
10.1
15.4
18.4
21.1
24.1
26.1
27.9
30.0
31.5
32.8
34.3
35.3
M =
LOG(M) = 3.8760
11.20
11.70
14.70
20.70
25.80
31.10
38.00
43.30
48.40
54.60
59.40
M =
YEAR
DATA
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
80
82
84
85
86
87
88
89
ORDERED
18.5
19.0
10.0
15.7
16.8
11.6
26.1
6.9
24.3
14.7
13.8
13.2
7.5
22.5
14.5
24.6
14.2
15.7
16.3
26.8
3.8
16.9
RANK
26.8
26.1
24.6
24.3
22.5
19.0
18.5
16.9
16.8
16.3
15.7
15.7
14.7
14.5
14.2
13.8
13.2
11.6
10.0
7.5
6.9
3.8
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
PROB.
RET. PERIOD
.027
.072
.117
.162
.207
.252
.297
.342
.387
.432
.477
.523
.568
.613
.658
.703
.748
.793
.838
.883
.928
.973
37.000
13.875
8.538
6.167
4.826
3.964
3.364
2.921
2.581
2.313
2.094
1.914
1.762
1.632
1.521
1.423
1.337
1.261
1.194
1.133
1.078
1.028
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
.3101E+02
0
.2726E+02
0
SAMPLE STATISTICS
MEAN =
16.
S.D. =
6.2
C.S. =
.0301
SAMPLE STATISTICS (LOGS)
MEAN =
2.6873
S.D. =
.4701
C.S. =
-1.2585
SAMPLE MIN =
4.
SAMPLE MAX =
27.
N = 22
PARAMETERS FOR GUMBEL I
A = .173496
U =
13.
PARAMETERS FOR LOGNORMAL
M = 2.6873
S = .4701
NO MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD SOLUTION FOR THREE PARAMETER LOGNORMAL
PARAMETERS FOR THREE PARAMETER LOG NORMAL BY MOMENTS
A = -.5997E+03
STATISTICS OF LOG(X-A)
MEAN =
6.4228
S.D. =
.0100
C.S. =
.0067
PARAMETERS FOR LOG PEARSON III BY MOMENTS
A = -.2958
B = .2526E+01
PARAMETERS FOR LOG PEARSON III BY MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD
DISTRIBUTION STATISTICS
GUMBEL I
RETURN
PERIOD
1.005
1.050
1.250
2.000
5.000
10.000
20.000
50.000
100.0
200.0
500.0
1000.0
2000.0
5000.0
10000.0
MEAN =
2.6873
LOGNORMAL
FLOOD
ST. ERROR FLOOD
ST.ERROR
ESTIMATE PERCENT ESTIMATE PERCENT
3.4
6.6
10.3
15.2
21.7
26.0
30.2
35.5
39.6
43.6
48.9
52.9
56.9
62.2
66.1
10.20
10.90
11.50
12.20
12.60
12.90
13.30
13.50
13.70
13.90
14.10
4.4
6.8
9.9
14.7
21.8
26.8
31.8
38.6
43.9
49.3
56.9
63.0
69.3
77.6
84.4
11.70
13.50
15.40
17.70
19.30
20.80
22.70
24.10
25.40
27.00
28.20
S.D. =
A = -.4523
.5287
THREE PARAMETER
LOGNORMAL
FLOOD
ST. ERROR
ESTIMATE PERCENT
.3
6.0
10.9
16.0
21.3
24.0
26.3
28.8
30.6
32.1
34.1
35.4
36.7
38.3
39.4
7.30
7.64
8.58
10.20
11.60
13.00
14.80
16.20
17.50
19.20
20.40
- 20 -
C.K. =
3.1515
C.K. =
5.6029
M =
6.4228
S =
C.K. =
3.1629
LOG(M) = 3.4345
B = .1366E+01
1.7
5.2
10.4
16.9
22.5
24.6
25.8
26.6
27.0
27.2
27.2
27.3
27.3
27.3
27.3
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
FLOOD
ST. ERROR
ESTIMATE PERCENT
2.5
6.0
10.5
16.1
21.8
24.3
26.2
27.8
28.7
29.4
30.0
30.4
30.6
30.8
30.9
M =
LOG(M) = 3.3053
C.S. =-1.7110
FLOOD
ST. ERROR
ESTIMATE PERCENT
.0100
7.39
9.22
14.30
21.70
26.90
31.80
37.50
41.40
44.70
48.20
50.50
M =
YEAR
DATA
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
80
82
84
85
86
87
88
89
21.6
22.5
16.6
17.6
21.7
14.7
28.3
9.4
28.0
19.2
16.3
16.5
11.0
24.6
14.5
27.6
19.5
20.2
17.7
29.6
5.1
18.0
ORDERED
RANK
29.6
28.3
28.0
27.6
24.6
22.5
21.7
21.6
20.2
19.5
19.2
18.0
17.7
17.6
16.6
16.5
16.3
14.7
14.5
11.0
9.4
5.1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
PROB.
RET. PERIOD
.027
.072
.117
.162
.207
.252
.297
.342
.387
.432
.477
.523
.568
.613
.658
.703
.748
.793
.838
.883
.928
.973
37.000
13.875
8.538
6.167
4.826
3.964
3.364
2.921
2.581
2.313
2.094
1.914
1.762
1.632
1.521
1.423
1.337
1.261
1.194
1.133
1.078
1.028
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
.3049E+02
0
.3003E+02
0
SAMPLE STATISTICS
MEAN =
19.
S.D. =
6.3
C.S. =
SAMPLE STATISTICS (LOGS)
MEAN =
2.8838
S.D. =
.4045
C.S. =
SAMPLE MIN =
5.
SAMPLE MAX =
30.
N = 22
PARAMETERS FOR GUMBEL I
A = .160377
U =
16.
PARAMETERS FOR LOGNORMAL
M = 2.8838
S = .4045
NO MOMENT SOLUTION FOR THREE PARAMETER LOGNORMAL
PARAMETERS FOR LOG PEARSON III BY MOMENTS
A = -.3066
PARAMETERS FOR LOG PEARSON III BY MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD
DISTRIBUTION STATISTICS
GUMBEL I
RETURN
PERIOD
1.005
1.050
1.250
2.000
5.000
10.000
20.000
50.000
100.0
200.0
500.0
1000.0
2000.0
5000.0
10000.0
MEAN =
2.8838
LOGNORMAL
FLOOD
ST. ERROR FLOOD
ST.ERROR
ESTIMATE PERCENT ESTIMATE PERCENT
5.6
9.0
13.0
18.3
25.3
30.0
34.5
40.3
44.7
49.0
54.7
59.1
63.4
69.1
73.4
9.45
10.20
10.90
11.60
12.00
12.40
12.80
13.10
13.30
13.50
13.70
6.3
9.2
12.7
17.9
25.1
30.0
34.8
41.0
45.8
50.7
57.3
62.6
67.9
74.9
80.5
10.00
11.60
13.20
15.20
16.60
17.90
19.60
20.80
21.90
23.20
24.30
S.D. =
3.4713
-1.5161
C.K. =
6.8883
A = -.3719
FLOOD
ST. ERROR
ESTIMATE PERCENT
- 21 -
C.K. =
B = .1740E+01
.4390
THREE PARAMETER
LOGNORMAL
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
-.1994
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
LOG(M) = 3.4174
B = .1394E+01
LOG(M) = 3.4021
C.S. =-1.6940
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
M =
FLOOD
ST. ERROR
ESTIMATE PERCENT
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
M =
YEAR
DATA
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
80
82
84
85
86
87
88
89
ORDERED
27.0
25.5
16.9
19.4
25.1
18.0
29.9
11.9
29.3
23.0
17.6
17.7
14.3
26.1
14.5
29.0
21.4
23.2
18.0
32.0
5.3
19.3
RANK
32.0
29.9
29.3
29.0
27.0
26.1
25.5
25.1
23.2
23.0
21.4
19.4
19.3
18.0
18.0
17.7
17.6
16.9
14.5
14.3
11.9
5.3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
PROB.
RET. PERIOD
.027
.072
.117
.162
.207
.252
.297
.342
.387
.432
.477
.523
.568
.613
.658
.703
.748
.793
.838
.883
.928
.973
37.000
13.875
8.538
6.167
4.826
3.964
3.364
2.921
2.581
2.313
2.094
1.914
1.762
1.632
1.521
1.423
1.337
1.261
1.194
1.133
1.078
1.028
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
.3103E+02
0
.3257E+02
0
SAMPLE STATISTICS
MEAN =
21.
S.D. =
6.6
C.S. =
SAMPLE STATISTICS (LOGS)
MEAN =
2.9875
S.D. =
.3974
C.S. =
SAMPLE MIN =
5.
SAMPLE MAX =
32.
N = 22
PARAMETERS FOR GUMBEL I
A = .146877
U =
18.
PARAMETERS FOR LOGNORMAL
M = 2.9875
S = .3974
NO MOMENT SOLUTION FOR THREE PARAMETER LOGNORMAL
PARAMETERS FOR LOG PEARSON III BY MOMENTS
A = -.3530
PARAMETERS FOR LOG PEARSON III BY MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD
DISTRIBUTION STATISTICS
MEAN =
GUMBEL I
LOGNORMAL
RETURN
PERIOD
1.005
1.050
1.250
2.000
5.000
10.000
20.000
50.000
100.0
200.0
500.0
1000.0
2000.0
5000.0
10000.0
2.9875
FLOOD
ST. ERROR FLOOD
ST.ERROR
ESTIMATE PERCENT ESTIMATE PERCENT
6.4
10.2
14.5
20.3
28.0
33.1
38.0
44.3
49.1
53.8
60.1
64.8
69.5
75.8
80.5
9.34
10.10
10.80
11.50
11.90
12.30
12.70
13.00
13.20
13.50
13.70
7.1
10.3
14.2
19.8
27.7
33.0
38.1
44.9
50.0
55.2
62.3
67.9
73.6
81.0
86.9
9.86
11.40
13.00
14.90
16.30
17.60
19.20
20.40
21.50
22.80
23.80
S.D. =
3.4825
C.K. =
8.3211
B = .1267E+01
.4014
FLOOD
ST. ERROR
ESTIMATE PERCENT
- 22 -
C.K. =
A = -.3249
THREE PARAMETER
LOGNORMAL
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
-.3721
-1.7765
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
LOG(M) = 3.4348
B = .1526E+01
C.S. =-1.6190
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
M =
LOG(M) = 3.4833
FLOOD
ST. ERROR
ESTIMATE PERCENT
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
M =
YEAR
DATA
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
80
82
84
85
86
87
88
89
ORDERED
41.5
38.2
30.4
26.8
30.2
25.3
33.9
33.4
32.4
32.5
33.6
20.5
26.2
29.7
19.1
35.8
42.0
37.3
24.5
39.4
18.2
23.0
RANK
42.0
41.5
39.4
38.2
37.3
35.8
33.9
33.6
33.4
32.5
32.4
30.4
30.2
29.7
26.8
26.2
25.3
24.5
23.0
20.5
19.1
18.2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
PROB.
RET. PERIOD
.027
.072
.117
.162
.207
.252
.297
.342
.387
.432
.477
.523
.568
.613
.658
.703
.748
.793
.838
.883
.928
.973
37.000
13.875
8.538
6.167
4.826
3.964
3.364
2.921
2.581
2.313
2.094
1.914
1.762
1.632
1.521
1.423
1.337
1.261
1.194
1.133
1.078
1.028
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
.7098E+02
0
.4381E+02
0
SAMPLE STATISTICS
MEAN =
31.
S.D. =
7.0
C.S. =
SAMPLE STATISTICS (LOGS)
MEAN =
3.3949
S.D. =
.2441
C.S. =
SAMPLE MIN =
18.
SAMPLE MAX =
42.
N = 22
PARAMETERS FOR GUMBEL I
A = .152580
U =
27.
PARAMETERS FOR LOGNORMAL
M = 3.3949
S = .2441
NO MOMENT SOLUTION FOR THREE PARAMETER LOGNORMAL
PARAMETERS FOR LOG PEARSON III BY MOMENTS
A = -.0687
PARAMETERS FOR LOG PEARSON III BY MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD
DISTRIBUTION STATISTICS
GUMBEL I
RETURN
PERIOD
1.005
1.050
1.250
2.000
5.000
10.000
20.000
50.000
100.0
200.0
500.0
1000.0
2000.0
5000.0
10000.0
MEAN =
3.3949
LOGNORMAL
FLOOD
ST. ERROR FLOOD
ST.ERROR
ESTIMATE PERCENT ESTIMATE PERCENT
16.2
19.9
24.0
29.6
37.0
41.9
46.6
52.7
57.3
61.9
67.9
72.4
77.0
83.0
87.5
6.81
7.71
8.48
9.32
9.86
10.30
10.80
11.20
11.50
11.90
12.10
15.9
20.0
24.3
29.8
36.6
40.8
44.5
49.2
52.6
55.9
60.2
63.5
66.7
70.7
73.9
6.06
7.02
7.98
9.18
10.00
10.80
11.80
12.50
13.20
14.00
14.60
S.D. =
2.6331
C.K. =
2.9535
B = .1263E+02
.2653
FLOOD
ST. ERROR
ESTIMATE PERCENT
- 23 -
C.K. =
-.5627
A = -.1829
THREE PARAMETER
LOGNORMAL
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
-.1626
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
LOG(M) = 4.2624
B = .2105E+01
C.S. =-1.3784
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
M =
LOG(M) = 3.7798
FLOOD
ST. ERROR
ESTIMATE PERCENT
14.0
19.3
24.5
30.5
36.7
40.0
42.7
45.6
47.5
49.3
51.3
52.7
53.9
55.4
56.4
5.14
5.46
6.62
8.94
11.00
13.10
16.00
18.30
20.50
23.30
25.40
M =
YEAR
DATA
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
80
82
84
85
86
87
88
89
ORDERED
31.5
22.7
17.0
21.5
28.5
20.4
32.2
19.4
30.9
27.7
21.5
18.9
19.8
27.6
14.6
31.2
28.1
30.6
20.8
36.0
9.9
20.1
RANK
36.0
32.2
31.5
31.2
30.9
30.6
28.5
28.1
27.7
27.6
22.7
21.5
21.5
20.8
20.4
20.1
19.8
19.4
18.9
17.0
14.6
9.9
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
PROB.
RET. PERIOD
.027
.072
.117
.162
.207
.252
.297
.342
.387
.432
.477
.523
.568
.613
.658
.703
.748
.793
.838
.883
.928
.973
37.000
13.875
8.538
6.167
4.826
3.964
3.364
2.921
2.581
2.313
2.094
1.914
1.762
1.632
1.521
1.423
1.337
1.261
1.194
1.133
1.078
1.028
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
.4468E+02
0
.3822E+02
0
SAMPLE STATISTICS
MEAN =
24.
S.D. =
6.6
C.S. =
SAMPLE STATISTICS (LOGS)
MEAN =
3.1422
S.D. =
.3069
C.S. =
SAMPLE MIN =
10.
SAMPLE MAX =
36.
N = 22
PARAMETERS FOR GUMBEL I
A = .156672
U =
21.
PARAMETERS FOR LOGNORMAL
M = 3.1422
S = .3069
NO MOMENT SOLUTION FOR THREE PARAMETER LOGNORMAL
PARAMETERS FOR LOG PEARSON III BY MOMENTS
A = -.1433
PARAMETERS FOR LOG PEARSON III BY MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD
DISTRIBUTION STATISTICS
GUMBEL I
RETURN
PERIOD
1.005
1.050
1.250
2.000
5.000
10.000
20.000
50.000
100.0
200.0
500.0
1000.0
2000.0
5000.0
10000.0
MEAN =
3.1422
LOGNORMAL
FLOOD
ST. ERROR FLOOD
ST.ERROR
ESTIMATE PERCENT ESTIMATE PERCENT
10.2
13.7
17.8
23.2
30.4
35.2
39.8
45.8
50.2
54.7
60.5
64.9
69.4
75.2
79.6
8.06
8.93
9.67
10.50
11.00
11.40
11.90
12.20
12.40
12.70
12.90
10.5
14.0
17.9
23.2
30.0
34.3
38.4
43.5
47.3
51.0
56.0
59.9
63.7
68.6
72.5
7.61
8.83
10.00
11.50
12.60
13.60
14.80
15.80
16.60
17.60
18.40
S.D. =
2.8753
-.9338
C.K. =
4.7509
A = -.1968
FLOOD
ST. ERROR
ESTIMATE PERCENT
- 24 -
C.K. =
B = .4587E+01
.3141
THREE PARAMETER
LOGNORMAL
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
-.1556
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
LOG(M) = 3.7995
B = .2546E+01
LOG(M) = 3.6434
C.S. =-1.2534
4.76
4.22
3.79
3.41
3.28
3.28
3.45
3.66
3.90
4.21
4.43
FLOOD
ST. ERROR
ESTIMATE PERCENT
8.0
13.1
18.3
24.3
30.1
32.9
35.0
37.1
38.4
39.4
40.6
41.3
41.9
42.5
42.9
M =
5.59
5.95
8.08
11.90
15.00
18.00
21.90
24.80
27.40
30.60
33.00
M =
YEAR
DATA
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
80
82
84
85
86
87
88
89
ORDERED
44.7
41.4
33.3
27.6
30.2
35.7
42.3
37.0
40.8
41.9
35.3
20.5
36.3
30.8
23.9
38.5
54.7
37.8
25.7
48.0
28.7
28.6
RANK
54.7
48.0
44.7
42.3
41.9
41.4
40.8
38.5
37.8
37.0
36.3
35.7
35.3
33.3
30.8
30.2
28.7
28.6
27.6
25.7
23.9
20.5
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
PROB.
RET. PERIOD
.027
.072
.117
.162
.207
.252
.297
.342
.387
.432
.477
.523
.568
.613
.658
.703
.748
.793
.838
.883
.928
.973
37.000
13.875
8.538
6.167
4.826
3.964
3.364
2.921
2.581
2.313
2.094
1.914
1.762
1.632
1.521
1.423
1.337
1.261
1.194
1.133
1.078
1.028
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
.1569E+03
0
.1103E+03
0
SAMPLE STATISTICS
MEAN =
36.
S.D. =
8.3
C.S. =
SAMPLE STATISTICS (LOGS)
MEAN =
3.5463
S.D. =
.2392
C.S. =
SAMPLE MIN =
21.
SAMPLE MAX =
55.
N = 22
PARAMETERS FOR GUMBEL I
A = .136258
U =
32.
PARAMETERS FOR LOGNORMAL
M = 3.5463
S = .2392
PARAMETERS FOR THREE PARAMETER LOGNORMAL
A =
-36.
STATISTICS OF LOG(X-A)
MEAN =
4.2687
S.D. =
.1153
C.S. =
PARAMETERS FOR LOG PEARSON III BY MOMENTS
A = -.0379
PARAMETERS FOR LOG PEARSON III BY MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD
DISTRIBUTION STATISTICS
GUMBEL I
RETURN
PERIOD
1.005
1.050
1.250
2.000
5.000
10.000
20.000
50.000
100.0
200.0
500.0
1000.0
2000.0
5000.0
10000.0
MEAN =
3.5463
LOGNORMAL
FLOOD
ST. ERROR FLOOD
ST.ERROR
ESTIMATE PERCENT ESTIMATE PERCENT
19.4
23.5
28.2
34.4
42.7
48.2
53.5
60.3
65.4
70.5
77.3
82.4
87.4
94.2
99.3
6.61
7.51
8.28
9.13
9.67
10.10
10.70
11.00
11.30
11.70
11.90
18.7
23.4
28.4
34.7
42.4
47.1
51.4
56.7
60.5
64.2
69.1
72.8
76.3
80.9
84.4
5.93
6.88
7.82
8.99
9.82
10.60
11.60
12.30
12.90
13.70
14.30
S.D. =
3.4810
-.3169
C.K. =
3.3490
M =
S =
4.2687
-.0176
B = .3983E+02
.2345
FLOOD
ST. ERROR
ESTIMATE PERCENT
5.32
6.03
7.14
8.91
10.30
11.80
13.80
15.30
16.70
18.50
19.90
- 25 -
C.K. =
A = -.0475
THREE PARAMETER
LOGNORMAL
16.8
22.8
28.6
35.2
42.4
46.5
50.1
54.2
57.1
59.9
63.3
65.8
68.2
71.2
73.4
.2735
.1153
C.K. =
3.2629
LOG(M) = 5.0559
B = .2433E+02
C.S. = -.4055
5.19
5.61
6.47
8.11
9.57
11.20
13.40
15.10
16.80
19.10
20.80
FLOOD
ST. ERROR
ESTIMATE PERCENT
17.4
22.9
28.5
35.1
42.5
46.7
50.3
54.4
57.2
59.8
63.1
65.5
67.6
70.3
72.3
M =
LOG(M) = 4.7028
5.45
6.04
7.23
9.42
11.30
13.40
16.20
18.50
20.70
23.60
25.80
M =
YEAR
DATA
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
80
82
84
85
86
87
88
89
ORDERED
46.2
45.2
37.7
29.8
30.2
36.3
46.4
38.2
40.8
53.3
53.3
29.6
37.4
40.4
29.1
42.8
58.1
47.7
26.5
48.0
28.7
34.4
RANK
58.1
53.3
53.3
48.0
47.7
46.4
46.2
45.2
42.8
40.8
40.4
38.2
37.7
37.4
36.3
34.4
30.2
29.8
29.6
29.1
28.7
26.5
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
PROB.
RET. PERIOD
.027
.072
.117
.162
.207
.252
.297
.342
.387
.432
.477
.523
.568
.613
.658
.703
.748
.793
.838
.883
.928
.973
37.000
13.875
8.538
6.167
4.826
3.964
3.364
2.921
2.581
2.313
2.094
1.914
1.762
1.632
1.521
1.423
1.337
1.261
1.194
1.133
1.078
1.028
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
.1263E+05
0
.1479E+03
0
SAMPLE STATISTICS
MEAN =
40.
S.D. =
9.0
C.S. =
SAMPLE STATISTICS (LOGS)
MEAN =
3.6643
S.D. =
.2286
C.S. =
SAMPLE MIN =
27.
SAMPLE MAX =
58.
N = 22
PARAMETERS FOR GUMBEL I
A = .131434
U =
36.
PARAMETERS FOR LOGNORMAL
M = 3.6643
S = .2286
PARAMETERS FOR THREE PARAMETER LOGNORMAL
A =
2.
STATISTICS OF LOG(X-A)
MEAN =
3.6169
S.D. =
.2397
C.S. =
PARAMETERS FOR LOG PEARSON III BY MOMENTS
A = -.0090
PARAMETERS FOR LOG PEARSON III BY MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD
DISTRIBUTION STATISTICS
GUMBEL I
RETURN
PERIOD
1.005
1.050
1.250
2.000
5.000
10.000
20.000
50.000
100.0
200.0
500.0
1000.0
2000.0
5000.0
10000.0
MEAN =
3.6643
LOGNORMAL
FLOOD
ST. ERROR FLOOD
ST.ERROR
ESTIMATE PERCENT ESTIMATE PERCENT
23.0
27.2
32.1
38.5
47.1
52.8
58.3
65.4
70.7
76.0
83.0
88.3
93.5
101.0
106.0
6.20
7.10
7.87
8.72
9.27
9.75
10.30
10.70
11.00
11.40
11.60
21.7
26.8
32.2
39.0
47.3
52.3
56.8
62.4
66.4
70.3
75.4
79.2
82.9
87.7
91.3
5.67
6.58
7.48
8.59
9.38
10.10
11.10
11.70
12.40
13.10
13.70
S.D. =
2.6370
-.0791
C.K. =
2.4193
M =
S =
3.6169
-.0944
B = .6392E+03
.2250
FLOOD
ST. ERROR
ESTIMATE PERCENT
5.73
6.84
8.34
10.60
12.40
14.30
16.80
18.70
20.60
23.00
24.80
- 26 -
C.K. =
A = -.0380
THREE PARAMETER
LOGNORMAL
21.8
26.9
32.2
39.0
47.3
52.4
57.0
62.7
66.8
70.8
76.0
80.0
83.8
88.7
92.5
.2590
.2397
C.K. =
2.4174
LOG(M) = 9.4440
B = .3505E+02
C.S. = -.3378
5.09
5.59
6.53
8.25
9.78
11.40
13.70
15.50
17.30
19.60
21.40
M =
LOG(M) = 4.9963
FLOOD
ST. ERROR
ESTIMATE PERCENT
21.3
26.7
32.2
39.1
47.4
52.2
56.6
61.8
65.5
69.1
73.8
77.2
80.5
84.7
87.9
5.58
6.46
7.86
10.20
12.20
14.40
17.40
19.70
22.10
25.10
27.50
M =
ANEXO 02
- 27 -
- 28 -
- 29 -
- 30 -
- 31 -
- 32 -
- 33 -
- 34 -
- 35 -
- 36 -
- 37 -
- 38 -
- 39 -
- 40 -
- 41 -
- 42 -
- 43 -
ANEXO 03
- 44 -