INTRODUCTION

- we are going to consider the problem of

making inferences.
-Probability permits us to make inferential
conclusion from sample to population and
then give the measure of reliability for the
influence.
- One of the fundamental tools of
statistics is probability, which had its
formal beginnings with games and chances
as early as the 17 th century.
Probability and statistics are like
opposite lanes.
Probability uses deductive reasoning to make
a guess about a small sample based on
the behaviors or possibilities in a large
population, while statistics uses inductive
reasoning to make a guess about a large
population after surveying or studying a
small sample.
It is clearly understood that some events
may be possible but may not be probable.
Consider the idea that it is possible for an
outstanding mathematics students to win in
a Mathematics Wizard Contest, but if he will
not join the contest, it is not probable for him
to win.
It is very important that we should know
what are possible before we can think of
what are probable. This simple logic plays an
important role in our lives especially in
making decisions.

- In the study of probability, we start the

activity by defining the activity random
experiment or simply experiment .
Experiment is a process that always
results in a single outcome.
*Single outcome cannot be predicted before
the performance of the experiment, while the
set of all possible outcomes can be
determined.
Sample Space set of all possible
outcomes of experiment or the complete
listing of the outcomes, denoted by the
capital letter S.
Sample Point Each of the possible
outcomes of the experiment from the sample
space
The total number of sample points in the
given space S, is symbolically denoted by
n(S)
EXAMPLE1
Find the sample space and the sample points
in the event of getting an even number and
the event of getting a perfect square in
rolling a die
a. To find the sample space (s)
The activity has 6 possible outcomes. Thus,
S = (1,2,3,4,5,6)
b. The sample points in an event of getting
even number

PROBABILITY

n(A) = (2,4,6)

- is a mathematical concept that is used to

measure the certainty or uncertainty of
occurrence of statistical phenomena.

c. The sample points in an event of getting a

perfect square.

- the word probability is derived from the

word probablethat comes from the latin
word prob and bills meaning
provable , which is rather paradoxical since
only when the probability is exactly zero that
can anything be definitely proved

n(B) = (1,4)
Note : The elements of A and B are subsets
of the sample S. Therefore,
n(S) = 6

n(A) = 3

EXAMPLE 2

and n(B) = 3

A box contains 7 green and 3 yellow balls. If

three balls are drawn from the box,
determine the number of the sample points
of the following
a. sample space
To find the sample space
Let S = event of drawing 3 balls from the box
n(S) =

10

10!
( 103 ) ! 3 !

b. the event of getting 2 green and 1 yellow

balls
Let A = event of getting 2 green and 1 yellow
balls
n(A) = 7C 2 x 3C 1

7!
3!
x
5 !2! 2!1!

= (21)(3) = 63

c. the event of getting all green balls

Let B = event of getting all green balls
n(B) = 7C3 X 4C0

7!
4 ! 3 ! = 35
One of the properties of probability states
that the probability of any event lies from 1
to 0, inclusive. Symbolically it is denoted by:
0 P(A) 1 for any event
The probability of occurrence plus the
probability of nonoccurrence of an event is
always equal to one. In a given experiment,
an event must or must not occur. If A
represents the occurrence of an event and A
represents the non occurrence of the event
then
P(A) + P(A) = 1
EXAMPLE

One Contestant in a certain math quiz was

able to compute the probability of winning
the contest to be equal to 0.65. What is the
probability that the contestant is not going to
win the math quiz?
Let A = event of winning the math quiz
A = event of not winning the math quiz
Hence, we have:
P(A) = 1- P(A)
= 1-0.65 = 0.35 or 35% is the probability of
not winning the quiz.
APPROACHES OF PROBABILITY
SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY OR NON
FREQUENTIST SUBJECTIVE APPROACH
- based on an individuals perception or
experience
- It may be based on the strength of
someones belief and guess with no regard to
certainties of events
Disadvantages
- it cannot be used to provide probability
estimates for events that occur only once or
rarely, e.g. climate change.
- Subjective probability is based entirely on
the sample and cannot take into account any
prior belief (common sense ) about the
probability
The value associated with subjective
probability is biased since this approach is
nothing but an educated guess
For example : A teacher may guess based
only on his own intuition or judgment that a
student will be absent from his class on a
particular day.
An unbiased coin could easily produce 2
heads when tossed 10 times and this would
lead to subjective probability estimate of 2
out of 10 for heads.

PROBABILITY OF THE RELATIVE

FREQUENCY
- For repeated events, probability can be
estimated by the long run relative
frequency of an event out of a set of many
trials
- if an event occurs m times in n trials, then
the relative frequency m/n provides an
unbiased estimate of the probability of the
event.
- the probability value based on the
calculation of relative frequency is obtained
by dividing the frequency f by the total
number of frequencies n and multiplying the
result by 100
The probability rule in relative frequency
approximation is :
Conduct an experiment a larger number of
times and count the number of times that
the event actually occurs
Then, we say that P(A) is estimated as
follows

P ( A )=

number of A occurred
number of experiment was repeated

EXAMPLE :
A consumer test group consists of 80 college
students, 35 of whom are woman. If one
person randomly selected from this group,
find the probability of not getting a woman.
Because 35 of the consumers are women, it
follows that 45 of them are not women.
Hence,
P(not selecting a woman) = 45/80 = 0.5625
or 56.25%
CLASSICAL PROBABILITY
- an experiment shall be performed.
Assuming that a given experiment has n
different sample events (A), each of which

has an equal chance of occurring then A can

occur in S of these n ways, as follows

P ( A )=

n( A)
n (S)

Where:
n(A)=represents the number of sample
points in event A
n(S)=represents the number of sample
points in the sample space
EXAMPLE1:
In the recent Board Examination for
engineers, a typical question has 5 possible
answers. If an examinee makes a random
guess on a typical question, what is the
probability that the examinee is wrong?
There are 5 possible outcomes or answers,
and there are 4 ways to answer the question
incorrectly. Random guessing implies that
the outcomes are equally likely to happen.
Hence we apply the classical approach.

4
P ( wrong answer )= =0.880
5
EXAMPLE2:
A die is rolled. Find the probability that the
number of dots is:
a. a perfect square
b. an even number
SOLUTION
Since a die has 6 faces, then:
S = (1,2,3,4,5,6)

n(S) = 6

Suppose we let A = be the event of getting a

perfect square and B = be the event of
getting an even number, then,
A = (1,4)
B = (2,4,6)

n(A) = 2
n(B) = 3

Hence,

a.

P ( A )=

Note : A scientific calculator can also be

used to find combination values, e.g.
press 5 shift nCr 1 to obtain the value of
5C1 = 5 and 4 shift nCr 2 = 6 for 4C2 = 6

n( A) 2 1
= =
n (B) 6 3

ADDITION RULE

b.

- to develop a rule for finding the event

P(A) or P(B) which is the probability that
for a single outcome of an experiment,
either event A or event B or both events
occur.

n (B) 3 1
P (B)=
= =
n( S) 6 2

EXAMPLE 3
A box contains 5 yellow and 4 blue balls. If 2
balls are drawn from the box , what is the
probability of getting

while the event that both events A and B

will occur is denoted by A B . Thus,

a. both blue
Determine n(S)

n(S) = 9C2 =

9!
( 92 ) ! 2!

= 36

Let A = event of getting both blue balls.

Then,

n(A) = 4C2 =

P ( A )=

4!
=6
( 42 ) ! 2 !

n( A) 6 1
= =
n (S) 36 6

b. one yellow and one blue?

Let B = event of getting 1 yellow and 1
blue balls. Then,
n(B) = 5C1 x 4C1

5!
4!
x
=5 x 4=20
( 51 ) ! 1 ! ( 41 ) ! 1 !

P (B)=

The event that at least one of the events

A or B will happen is denoted by A B ,

n (B) 20 5
= =
n(S) 36 9

P(A or B) = P (event A occurs or event B

occurs or they both occur)
P( A B ) = P(A) + P(B) P( A B )
Applying classical probability, we have:
P( A B ) =

n( A) n( B) n(A B)
+

n( S) n(S)
n(S)

But if P(A) does not intersect P(B), the

intersection is empty or P( A B ) = 0.
demonstrates the concept of mutually
exclusive events.
Two or more events are mutually
exclusive if they cannot occur
simultaneously. This means that only one
of 2 or more events can occur.
Events are non mutually exclusive
when 2 or more events can occur.
Therefore it follows that:
If A and B are non- mutually exclusive
then

P( A B ) = P(A) + P(B) P( A B ) or
P( A B ) =

n( A) n( B) n(A B)
+

n( S) n(S)
n(S)

If A and B are mutually exclusive, then

P( A B ) = P(A) + P(B) or
P( A B ) =

n( A) n( B)
+
n( S) n(S)

EXAMPLE 1
If a pair of dice is rolled , find the
probability of getting a sum of 7 or a
match (same number of dots on the
faces)
Solutions:
The sample space for a pair of dice is 36.
Hence
n(S) = 36
n(A) = sum of 7 = ( (6,1), (5,2),(2,5),
(4,3), (3,4), (2,5), (1,6)
n(B) = a match =
( (1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6) )
Events A and B have no elements in
common. Hence, they are mutually
exclusive events. Using the formula
above, we obtain:
P( A B ) =

n( A) n( B)
+
n( S) n(S)

6 6 12 1
+ = =
36 36 36 3
Therefore, P (sum of seven or a match) =
1/3

EXAMPLE2
A card is drawn from an ordinary deck of
52 playing cards. Find the probability of
getting:
a. an ace or a queen card
b. a queen or a face card
Solutions:
The sample space is n(S) = 52
a. Let A = n(A) = event of getting an ace
=4
B = n(B) = event of getting a
queen = 4
Therefore A and B are mutually exclusive
events.
Hence, we have.
P( A B ) =

n( A) n( B) 4 4
8
+
= + =
n( S) n(S) 52 52 52

P( A B ) = 2/13
b. Let C = n(C) = event of getting face
card = 12
Events B and C are non mutually
exclusive events. Since 2 events can
occur at the same time, we can find four
queen cards at the same time as the face
cards. Thus,
P( B C ) = P(B) + P(C) P( B C ) or
P( B C ) =
n(B) n(C) n ( B C ) 4 12 4 12
+

= + =
52 52 52 52
n (S ) n( S)
n (S )
P( B C ) = 3/13

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
- is the probability that A will occur, given
that B has occurred. Symbolically it is
written as P(A/B) read as the probability
of event A given that event B has
occurred
P(A/B) =

P( A B)
, provided P ( B ) 0
P( B)

P(A/B) =

n( A B)
n(B)

EXAMPLE 1
Let P(A) = 0.6
P(B) = 0.7
P( A B) = 0.3
Find the value of the following:
P( A B)
0.3
a. P(A/B) =
= 0.7 =0.43
P( B)
b. P(B/A) =

P( A B) 0.3
=
=0.5
P( A)
0.6

Since, there are only 8 hotdogs left out of

the remaining 29 sandwiches, then we
shall have:
P(H2 /H1 ) =

8
29

MULTIPLICATION RULE
- We will develop a rule for finding the
probability that event A or event B will
occur.
From the formula for conditional
probability, we have
P(A/B) =

P( A B)
, provided P ( B ) 0
P( B)

If the formula is cross multiplied and

solved for P( A B) we have
P ( A B ) =P (A/B) x P(B)
In multiplication rule, there are two cases
that we have to consider.

EXAMPLE 2:
The school canteen has 30 sandwiches to
be sold. The sandwiches are 9 hotdog, 5
tuna, 8 ham, 5 cheese and egg and 3
bacon. A sandwich is selected at random
and sold. Given that the first sandwich
selected and sold is hotdog, what is the
probability that the next sandwich
selected and sold is also hotdog?
Solutions:
Let H1 = event that the 1st sandwich
selected is hotdog
Let H2 = event that the second sandwich
selected is also a hotdog

Case 1 :
The probability is determined with
replacement, where the happening of the
second event is not affected by the
happening of first event. This condition
demonstrates the independent type of
event.
P(A/B) = P(A) or P(B/A) = P(B) or
P ( A B ) = P(A) x P(B)
Case 2 :
The probability is determined w/out
replacement where the occurrence of
second event is affected by the

occurrence of the 1st event. This

condition demonstrates the dependent
type of event.
P ( A B ) =

P(A) x P(B/A)

INDEPENDENT AND DEPENDENT EVENTS

- Two events are independent when the
occurrence of one event has no effect on
the probability of another event.
- Two events are dependent when the
occurrence of one event affects the
probability of the occurrence of another
event.
EXAMPLE:
A box contains 5 green, 6 yellow and 4
blue balls. Find the probability of
selecting two balls ( a yellow on the first
and a blue on the second) if selection is
done:
a. with replacement.
b. without replacement.
Solutions:
Let A = event of getting yellow
Let B = event of getting blue
a. Since the replacement is allowed in
the first condition, then we have
independent events
Hence,
P( A B)

= P(A) x P(B)

6
4
24
8
x =
=
15 15 225 75

b. In the second condition, replacement

is not allowed. Hence, the events are
dependent. Therefore,
P(yellow and blue) = P(yellow) x
P(blue/yellow)
P ( A B ) =

P(A) x P(B/A)

n(A ) n(B) 6 4
24
4
x
= x =
=
n( S) n( S) 15 14 210 35

EXAMPLE 2
5 particular cellphones are produced. 4
are in good condition and one is
defective. If two units of the particular
cellphone are randomly selected for
testing, and the first is replaced before
the second selection is made, find the
probability that both units selected are
not defective.
Let N represents the event of selecting
that particular cellphone which is not
defective. Hence,
P( N and N) = P(N) x P(N)

4 4 16
x =
5 5 25

If we will again randomly select 2 units

w/out replacing the 1st selection, What is
the probability of getting 2 good units of
that particular cell phone?
Let G = event of selecting good units
Let P ( both good units) = P(G) x P(G)

Such that replacement is not allowed

4 3 12 3
x = =
5 4 20 5