Dr.

Hasan Askari Rizvi

The writer is an independent political and defence analyst. He is also
the author of several books, monographs and articles
on Pakistan and South Asian affairs.

Compiled by: Aamir Mahar

Aamir Mahar

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In Search of Genuine Democracy (September 19, 2016)

Dynamics of Indo-US military cooperation (September 5, 2016)
Fracturing of Pakistani politics (August 22, 2016)
Agitation and Uncertain Politics in Pakistan (August 8, 2016)
Civil-Military Interaction and Pakistan's Foreign Policy
(June 13, 2016)
6. Turkish episode doesnt apply to Pakistan (July 25, 2016)
7. Local Roots of Transnational Terrorism (July 11, 2016)
8. Political Options for the PML-N (June 27, 2016)
9. Foreign Policy Dilemmas (May 30, 2016)
10. The Panama Leaks and Pakistani Politics (May 2, 2016)
11. Democratic politics under threat (April 18, 2016)
12. The Politics of Religious Parties (April 4, 2016)
13. How to Judge Democracy? (March 3, 2016)
14. Towards A New Political Drift In Pakistan
(February 22, 2016)
15. Protests and Political Uncertainties (February 8, 2016)
16. The Politics of Army Chiefs Extension of Service
(February 3, 2016)
17. Playing the Diplomatic Card Smoothly (January 11, 2016)
18. Terrorism: Domestic and Global Dimensions

Aamir Mahar
In Search of Genuine Democracy
(September 19, 2016)
The international community celebrated the Democracy Day on
September 15, an acknowledgement of the importance assigned to
participatory governance and constitutionalism. Democracy is
viewed as a flexible, egalitarian and peoples oriented governance
system that is suitable for diversified societies. It is now so popular
that even dictatorial regimes adopt some semblance of democracy.
Consequently, democracy exists in different countries in various
shapes and forms.
Long time ago, a British philosopher, C.E.M. Joad, made a
comment about Socialism that can now be applied to democracy. He
said, Socialism is like a hat that has lost its shape because
everybody wears it.
This comment implies that only the use of label of democracy
does not make a political system democratic. The key question is
how judge the quality of democracy. Another problem is that
democracy is equated with political status-quo in some countries like
Pakistan where any challenge the sitting elected government is often
described as playing into the hands of the adversaries of democracy.
Still another problem is that many elected leaders think that their
electoral victory gives them license to pursue any political agenda
until the next general elections. Democracy has one major weakness
because it can be destroyed by democratic means. The elected
government can undermine democracy by resorting to what is
described as the tyranny of the majority which involves the use of
the voting power in the parliament to pass legislation that negates the
values and spirit of democracy. An elected leader can become an
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authoritarian ruler by using the democratic institutions and processes
to advance personal power agenda.
Democracy takes roots gradually over time provided the
dominant elite internalises democratic values and norms and works
towards implementing them in letter and spirit. Unless the
competing political players learn to restrain them on their own on
the basis of the fundamental assumptions and principles of
democratic theory, the country will suffer from democracy deficit.
The first major requirement of genuine democracy is the holding
of regular elections that are perceived as fair, free and transparent by
the major competing political parties. All of them should get a levelplaying ground and the procedures from the filing of the nomination
papers to election campaign and the polling day arrangements as
well as counting of votes and the declaration of result should to the
satisfaction of the candidates and independent observers. The voters
and the political parties should learn from electoral experience that
they can change the government through the ballot box.
Second, democracy is based on liberal constitutionalism. It needs
a well-established constitutional and legal system that recognises civil
and political rights, equality of all citizens irrespective of religion,
caste, ethnicity or language and region. An independent judiciary
ensures that the Rule of Law is available to all citizens. The civil and
political rights have to protected not only from the excesses of state
institutions and functionaries but also secured against powerful
interest groups that resort to violence or a threat thereof against any
particular community or region.
Third, the accountability of rulers and their immediate families is
another condition for improving the rating of democracy. No ruler is
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above law and he/she can be held accountable for their official
conduct while in office. There should be no tolerance for the conflict
of official and private financial interests on the part of the rulers.
The people holding key political offices cannot pursue personal
commercial interests and the members of their immediate family
cannot exploit the official position of their parents or guardians to
their financial and business advantage.
Fourth, all major government transactions, especially involving
state funds, must be transparent and available to any one for
inspection. If sensitive security issues are involved in any official
transaction it could be shared with the relevant committee of the
parliament and public dissemination of information can be avoided.
Fifth, democracy cannot be sustained if the elected political
government cannot control corruption and partisan use of state
resources by the permanent and political officials of the government.
Any democratic system will falter if the key government leaders and
officials freely engage in illegal practices for making money, allow
some people to engage in corrupt practice to secure state resources,
ignore financial corruption and looting of state funds in order to
build political support. Merit and professionalism should be the main
criteria for managing state affairs.
Sixth, the government must provide basic services to citizenry to
secure their voluntary loyalty for state institutions and processes.
These services include education and health facilities for all,
provision of clean drinking water, civic amenities and related
facilities that make it possible for the citizens to lead a peaceful and
secure life with the hope of better prospects for the future. The more
the government works for the welfare and betterment of the common
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folks, the greater are the prospects that the people would be
politically and psychologically attached with the political system.
Seventh, the state policies must take care of the disadvantaged
sections of the populace. The state must intervene in the economic
and societal domains in order to remove sharp economic disparities
among people and regions and work towards promoting socioeconomic egalitarianism. If inequities increase in the society, it will
contribute to breeding discontent, alienation and violence.
This seven - point criteria can be used to judge the quality of
democracy anywhere. What matters most is the overall direction of
the political system. Democracy will become sustainable if the
governance system is moving in the direction of achieving these
goals and the citizens learn from experience that the government is
genuinely working towards improving the quality of their life.
The countries that have returned to liberal constitutionalism and
democracy after long years of military or authoritarian rule, must
learn from the counties like Turkey, Indonesia and Brazil, to name a
few, on pushing the military back and strengthening electoral
democracy. These civilian governments performed in the economic
domain, ensured good governance, provided a relatively secure and
peaceful living to common people and gave them the hope for a
better future.
A non-performing government cannot secure democracy only by
engaging in propaganda against the military to subdue it. Can
Pakistani rulers learn from these countries on improving the
prospects of democracy?

Aamir Mahar
Dynamics of Indo-US Military Cooperation
(September 5, 2016)
The US and India have embarked on a new course of action for
military and diplomatic cooperation with the signing of the Logistics
Exchange Memorandum of Agreement on August 29 in
Washington, and the visit of US Secretary of State, John Kerry, to
Delhi on the same day.
The US and Indian militaries would work closely to provide
logistics support to each other. There will be no permanent stationing
of US troops/aircraft in India. However, American military
personnel, aircraft and ships will have open access to Indias military
bases, get service and repair facilities and obtain supplies. This
agreement is viewed as the first step for more military cooperation in
the future. The frequency of American visits and the scope of
cooperation can increase if the US is confronted with a difficult
security situation in the region.
John Kerrys visit to Delhi underlined greater cooperation between
India and the US in countering terrorism in the region. This includes
intelligence-sharing and diplomatic consultation on terrorism and
regional stability issues. These arrangements represent a major
departure from Indias tradition of avoiding formal military-related
commitment with a major power.
This undertaking goes beyond the scope of two security-related
arrangements of the past. In the first instance, the US and some other
Western powers provided weapons and training facilities to India in
the aftermath of the Sino-Indian war of 1962. India received such
support without any reciprocal treaty obligation although it allowed
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the US to spy on China from its territory. From 1963, India began to
receive Soviet weapons, including the first MiG aircraft. The second
instance was the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation
of August 1971. The treatys text was crafted in a manner that it
could not be described as a purely bilateral military treaty. However,
the Soviets provided weaponry and diplomatic support to India for
the 1971 war with Pakistan.
Now, in 2016, India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has
entered into a formal military arrangement with the US, which
shows a major shift in the policies of both countries. The Modi
government has gone far ahead of the previous BJP government
under Atal Behari Vajpayee with reference to its relations with the
US. This negates Indias traditional non-aligned posture, although
some analysts would argue that it had long abandoned this policy to
get close to the US in the post-Cold War era.
Three major factors explain this departure in Indias foreign and
security policy. First, the Modi government is promoting a
Hinduism-based ultra-nationalism in the domestic context with the
support of the Sangh Parivar that upholds an extreme right-wing and
Hindu fundamentalist vision of India. In foreign policy, it advocates
greater Indian assertiveness and a hard line towards external
adversaries. Such a strident approach to foreign policy is
strengthened from military and diplomatic cooperation with the US.
Second, the global foreign policy agendas of China and India are
bound to clash in five to 10 years time. China is on the way to
becoming a global power. India is an aspirant for such a status.
Chinas One Belt, One Road policy of global economic connectivity
and trade has caused serious concerns in India and the US because
such inter-continental connectivity gives much diplomatic and
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economic clout to China. In this connection, the CPEC gives a
relatively secure sea access to China as there are no hostile states in
the vicinity of Gwadar in comparison to the situation in South China
Sea. However, US naval ships are often present in the area and these
would increase surveillance of Chinas activity in Gwadar. A
military cooperative arrangement between the US and India that
includes the opening up of all Indian military bases to the US, serves
the Indo-US shared agenda of keeping China under check.
Third, Indias current repression in Indian-administered Kashmir
has come to the notice of the international community. Pakistan is
expected to raise this issue in a more vocal manner in the
forthcoming UN General Assembly session. By linking up with the
US military agenda in the expanded Asian region, India hopes to
restrain the US and some of its allies from publicly criticising its
ongoing efforts to suppress the Kashmiri struggle by coercive means.
The US has made two additional concessions to India. It has
proposed an India-Afghanistan-US dialogue on the Afghanistan
situation, and has extended full support to Indias cross-border
terrorism allegations against Pakistan. The US is attempting to kill
two birds with one stone: bring India in line with the US military
agenda in the region and increase diplomatic pressure on Pakistan.
If the efforts of four powers (Afghanistan, China, Pakistan and the
US) could not find a solution to Afghanistans troubles, how could
the US succeed by knocking out China and Pakistan from the
process? If it is a question of Afghanistans economic reconstruction,
India can be helpful. However, if the idea is to settle the internal
strife in Afghanistan, this is an unrealistic proposal, which ignores
geographic realities. Further, the Afghan Taliban view the US,
Afghanistan and India as their adversaries and they are not expected
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to enter into a dialogue with them for a political settlement in
Afghanistan.
In view of US support, the Indian government will display more
arrogance and belligerence than ever in its diplomatic interaction
with Pakistan. It will insist more on a single-issue agenda of Indias
choice, for talks with Pakistan, i.e., Pakistan must satisfy India on
the terrorism issue first while rejecting Pakistans proposal for a
mutually agreed agenda for the talks. Similarly, Afghanistan will also
adopt a more hostile disposition towards Pakistan, knowing fully
well that such a policy is in harmony with the policies of India and
the US.
The US has increased direct diplomatic pressure on Pakistan to
force the latter to pursue a counterterrorism policy to Washingtons
satisfaction. Its top leadership has joined hands with Indian leaders
to publicly censure Pakistan on terrorism in the region. This policy
will further reduce the prospect of any meaningful dialogue between
India and Pakistan. The regional situation will slide towards more
acrimony and conflict. India and the US will not be able to tame the
Afghan Taliban and thus the current internal strife in Afghanistan
will aggravate.

Fracturing of Pakistani politics

(August 22, 2016)
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Politics in Pakistan has become fractured to such an extent that its
long-term endurance is threatened unless the major political players
adopt some corrective and cooperative measures. The fast-growing
conflict and polarisation in the political process is reducing the scope
for internal political and societal harmony.
Five major developments are fragmenting the political process.
First, the political discourse has become very bitter, involving
charges and counter-charges on the part of the ruling PML-N and the
major opposition parties. The growing acrimony in their political
exchanges is a negation of democratic parlance and personalises the
political contest. The competing political parties are publicly
threatening to knock one another out of the political process.
Second, the PML-N and the opposition are engaged in a war of
legal references against each other. These references, meant for
disqualifying the senior-most leaders from parliament, are now with
the election commission, the speaker of the National Assembly and
the Supreme Court. The legal battle regarding the references will
produce a flood of charges and counter-charges against each other.
Some of the top leaders of the PML-N and the PTI face legal
references for not fully declaring their foreign assets and properties,
their bank loan write-offs, alleged corrupt money-making practices
and related issues. Asif Ali Zardaris track record is problematic in
this respect as he still faces some cases. These political parties do not
realise that they are undermining their own reputation by trading
charges and counter-charges. Political leaders are getting maligned as
a class.
Third, different opposition parties have launched separate protests
against the federal government. The PTI is holding protests in
support of its demand for the prime ministers accountability for
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financial malpractices especially in light of the disclosures in the
Panama documents. The Pakistan Awami Tehrik (PAT) has
initiated street protests to seek justice for the killing of its 14 workers
in Model Town, Lahore, in June 2014. Though an FIR was filed on
the initiative of the army chief, no action was taken against those
named in it because it included names of some key PML-N leaders
and their favourite bureaucrats and police officials. Sheikh Rashid
Ahmed has also announced a schedule of public rallies in AugustSeptember to get rid of the PML-N government. The PML-N, on the
other hand, has adopted a dismissive disposition towards these
protest rallies and marches.
Fourth, there are strains in civil-military relations. The August
12 statement of the army chief about the neglect in the
implementation of the National Action Plan (NAP) by the civilian
governments brought these differences out in the open. Now, the
civilian government has become active in implementing NAP.
However, in addition to other differences between the PML-N
government and the establishment, some elements in the former are
engaged in a low-key campaign against the establishment,
neutralising the prime ministers efforts to improve relations.

Fifth, the MQM is playing politics in its peculiar way to protect

its political interests and assets in Karachi. Its latest protest,
especially the fast-unto-death movement has been initiated to build
pressure on the law-enforcement apparatus in Karachi, as well as the
Sindh and federal governments in a bid to force them to accept its
demands. The MQM is not opposed to the security operation in
Karachi, but it does not want action to be taken against its activists,
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including those who are said to have used violence in support of their
personal and party agendas.
There is a lot of political activity going on against the PML-N,
but so far it has managed to withstand it because the opposition
parties are pursuing their anti-PML-N agendas separately. If they
join hands, the PML-N will find it extremely difficult to cope with
the protests. Furthermore, much depends on the capacity of the PTI,
the PAT and the Jamaat-e-Islami to sustain street protests for at least
two weeks in Lahore, the heartland of the PML-N. The ambiguous
disposition of the PPP towards the growing conflict between the
PML-N and the PTI and other above-named political parties
weakens its efforts. The PML-N is confident that Asif Ali Zardari
and his close associates would stand by it if the crisis accentuates.
However, the PPP leadership in Punjab wants to pursue open
confrontation with the PML-N in Punjab. At the moment, some PPP
leaders, mainly from Punjab, are engaged in tough talk against the
PML-N, but the Dubai-based leadership wants to keep its options
open. If the opposition protests intensify, the PPP is expected to face
internal turmoil on its vague policy.
It is difficult to predict whether the opposition will succeed or
not. As long as the PML-N maintains a monopolistic control of
political power in Punjab, it can wriggle out of the difficult situation.
However, the political process will get more fragmented with
multiple divisions and splits. This will add to the uncertainty
regarding the future of Pakistans domestic political system. Even if it
does not collapse, it can become dysfunctional unless the PML-N
accommodates some opposition demands, makes changes at the
federal cabinet level and adopts policies that directly benefit the
people and address growing socioeconomic inequities rather than
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buying off loyalties through allowing corruption, making partisan
use of state patronage and subordinating the bureaucracy and the
police to its whims.
The uncertain situation can get out of control of the current
rulers by a triggering factor that can shoot out of a court decision,
greater political assertion by the opposition, a decision of the federal
government to make extensive use of the coercive apparatus of the
state against the opposition, rebellion in the PML-N, or an adverse
development in the governments relations with the establishment.
The political future is uncertain and open.

Agitation and Uncertain Politics in Pakistan

(August 8, 2016)
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Pakistan is moving towards a major political confrontation
between the ruling PML-N and the opposition parties. It may be
difficult to predict its outcome, but it will surely create an uncertain
situation that could be manipulated in multiple directions.
Three political parties want to demonstrate their popular
support individually in their own ways. The PTI launched its first
protest on August 7 and it plans to stage marches from one city to
another, and hold public meetings in the future. The Pakistan
Awami Tehrik (PAT) started its protest on August 6 to seek justice
for the 14 people killed in the Model Town area, Lahore, by
indiscriminate police firing in June 2014.
The PPP will launch public rallies after adopting a wait and see
approach to gauge how the situation develops after the PAT and PTI
protests. It appears that the PPP is pursuing a dual-track policy of
building political pressure on the government as well as seeking some
political accommodation with it. The Punjab-based PPP wants to
take on the PML-N in order to assert its autonomous identity.
Bilalwal Bhutto Zardari is inclined towards such a head-on
confrontation with the PMLN. However, Asif Ali Zardri, Khurshid
Shah and Faryal Talpur are more interested in getting some political
concessions from the PML-N in return for staying quiet on the
sidelines. The PML-N circles are of the view that that the PPP would
not engage in a persistent confrontation with them. Such a soft
approach may serve Zardaris personal agenda, but it will undermine
the PPP in Punjab where the policy of compromise with the PML-N
has already led to the decline of the former.

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While the PML-N is dismissive of the opposition protest,
Nawaz Sharif has become active in rehabilitating his contacts with
allied political parties and is giving more time to his partys
parliamentarians. The prime minister presided over special meetings
to review the development work done by various government
departments and new development plans were announced for the
next two years. The Punjab chief minister is devoting more attention
to different power projects in the province. Last week, he took media
personnel to three power projects under construction to assure them
that these would become operational on schedule in 2017. These
efforts are meant to assure the people that their socioeconomic
problems and especially the shortages of electricity would be
addressed adequately in the next two years so that they stay away
from the current opposition protests.
The government and the opposition are also engaged in a legal
battle against each other. Four petitions have been filed with the
election commission for the prime ministers disqualification with
reference to his family assets uncovered by the Panama Papers. As a
rejoinder, the PML-N has filed a reference against Imran Khan and
one of his senior colleagues for disqualification before the National
Assembly speaker. No matter what the decision is on these petitions
and references, the stage is set for a major political confrontation
whose outcome is uncertain. There is one positive sign for the PMLN in this troubled political situation. The three parties that want to
show their street power are not working from a single political
platform. This weakens the opposition and gives a lot of breathing
space to the PML-N. If the ruling partys calculations about the PPP
materialise, the oppositions efforts to dislodge the government will
be further weakened.
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Besides the pressures from political circles, Nawaz Sharif faces
pressures of another kind from the military. Four issues are of
current relevance: military action in Punjab; the monopolistic control
of Punjab by the PML-N; the management of the CPEC; and the
appointment of the new army chief.
There is criticism from Sindhs political circles for there not
being any tough military action in Punjab, which has the reputation
of being a safe haven for sectarian and other extremist groups. The
military launched an operation in Punjab after the bombing incident
in Iqbal Town Park. However, there was opposition by the Punjab
and federal governments to any autonomous operation by the
military in the province. If the military gets a free hand in Punjab,
the PML-Ns monopolistic control of the province will be
compromised, which it cannot afford at this stage. The key to the
PML-Ns success in the next general election is its monopolistic
control of Punjab. It fully controls the top bureaucracy, business and
commercial activity, and has created a big class of beneficiaries and
dependents in the province by tolerating corruption and distributing
state patronage on partisan considerations. These beneficiaries and
the bureaucrats will ensure that votes are delivered to the PML-N in
such large numbers that it sweeps the polls in the province. By
winning over some independents and smaller parties from other
provinces, the PML-N can then continue to hold on to power
beyond 2018.
However, if its grip over Punjab loosens, there will be defections
from its support base and it will not be able to sweep the polls in the
province.
Similarly, the PML-N wants to retain the exclusive control of
the CPEC, which gives access to power generation and other projects
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whose location can help obtain political dividends. The
establishment, on the other hand, is in favour of an autonomous
authority looking after CPEC affairs. The Chinese government is
favourably disposed towards an increased role of the army in CPEC
management. Similarly, if the prime minister attempts to by-pass the
established procedure for appointment of the new army chief, this
could cause major problems.
If political confrontation persists for some time, the political
situation will become uncertain. The simmering discontent will then
persist. However, some sudden triggering development either
because of the confrontation between the PML-N and the opposition
or because of adventurism on the part of the prime minister in his
interaction with the establishment can create an entirely new
political scenario.

Civil-Military Interaction and Pakistan's Foreign Policy

(June 13, 2016)

Pakistan represents a civil-military hybrid where an elected civilian
government rules but it cannot command the political system to the
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exclusion of the top military brass, which exercises clout over
policymaking from the sidelines.
Such a situation is more likely to arise in countries that have
shaped as security states mainly due to external security pressures
and internal political and societal incoherence, rampant extremism
and an incessant use of violence by competing politico-religious
interests. Governance involves balancing the imperative of
participatory democracy and good governance with the pressures of
national security.
A troubled political system like ours cannot be effectively
managed singlehandedly by either the civilian or the military elite
alone. They need to work in harmony, pursuing cooperation where
they need to work together and, at the same time, respecting each
others institutional autonomy.
The shared policymaking areas include internal and external
security affairs and the interaction between the demands of national
security on internal political and economic matters as well as the
financial implications of security. Each side also has its own
exclusive domain. The civilian government manages exclusively
political issues and day-to-day governance affairs and provides basic
services to the common people. The militarys exclusive domain
includes internal and organisational service matters, disbursement of
the defence budget, and professional affairs.
There are areas of military activity whose boundaries are not yet
fully determined. One of these is the periodic civilian demands on
the military to undertake tasks outside of its professional domain.
The Aid to Civil is an established role of the military. However, if it
is called out too frequently for civilian tasks, it makes the civilian
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government vulnerable to criticism that it is unable to perform its
primary tasks.
A good example of civilian-military cooperation is the handling
of terrorism. The military deals with terrorists and criminal elements
that challenge the writ of the state. However, the civilian aspects of
extremism and terrorism are the responsibility of the civilian
government. The elimination of terrorist hideouts and training
centres is important but this cannot be achieved if the civilian
dimension of terrorism is not addressed. Counterterrorism and
counter-insurgency efforts must have full political ownership of the
civilian government, the political elite and society.
On June 7, a meeting was called between the military top brass
and top civilian officials to discuss the current security and foreign
policy challenges. The army chief and his principal staff officers
sought more activism from the civilian government to address the
challenges. We then saw the Foreign Office showing activism by
giving a briefing to some diplomats in Islamabad on Pakistans
policy on a number of issues. The adviser on foreign affairs
addressed a press conference on Pakistans relations with the US and
Afghanistan, and our membership bid for the Nuclear Suppliers
Group. Several other officials and ministers gave a special briefing
on Pakistans economy to some foreign diplomats and the Pakistani
media on June 9.
The key issue is why the civilian leadership did not embark on active
diplomacy on its own? Why was it slow in responding to diplomatic
and economic challenges until the establishment pushed it?
Pakistans current foreign policy crisis and a slow response to
the changing regional and global situation represent a multifaceted
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dilemma. The three dimensions of the crisis include: a lack of a
comprehensive vision of what Pakistan should achieve in the next
five to 10 years and through what strategies rather than complaining
about the whole world undermining Pakistan; a leadership crisis in
the sense that too many people are poking their noses in foreign
policy, resulting in incoherence and inaction; and personal
preferences of the rulers that may not necessarily advance our longterm interests.
Pakistan needs smart diplomacy to deal with India, Iran and
Afghanistan as well as to cope with the current trouble in its relations
with the US. Smart diplomacy seeks to find alternative ways to deal
with a situation when one option does not offer a credible
opportunity. You do not wait for the situation to change on its own;
you invoke different diplomatic options to create space for yourself.
If India has a secured trade route to Afghanistan and Central Asia
through Iran, Pakistan should not view this as a threat. Instead it
should quickly take practical step to obtain gas and electricity from
Iran. If this economic connection is built, Iran will have greater
interest in cultivating Pakistan because this economic relationship
will not require the use of a land route of a third country.
Pakistan has shown greater interest in obtaining LNG/gas from
Qatar and it is hoping that gas will also be available from
Turkmenistan through the TAPI project. Similarly, Pakistan is very
keen to get electricity through the CASA-1000 project from Central
Asia. However, given the law and order situation in Afghanistan and
Pakistans troubled relations with that country, TAPI and CASA1000 may not materialise in the near future. Pakistan wants to wait
for these projects rather than seek gas and electricity from Iran. Our
future demand for gas and electricity is going to be so high that we
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will be in a position to consume gas and electricity from all these
sources. However, our rulers are pushing their personal preferences
rather than adopting a realistic approach to address the energy
problem.
There are many other examples from Pakistans foreign and
security policies, which show poverty of vision and leadership in
exploring new options. Had China not been so supportive, Pakistan
would have faced even more diplomatic embarrassment at the global
level.
Pakistans civilian leadership and the establishment have now
adopted a more forthright position in their interaction with the US
delegation that visited Pakistan on June 10. Pakistan has asked for
reciprocity in relations rather than the US presenting a demand list
for dealing with terrorism.
Hopefully, the vitality demonstrated in our foreign and security
disposition after the meeting between the military top brass and the
civilian leadership will improve the prospects of initiating smart
diplomacy and new options for coping with our current economic,
military and diplomatic pressures.

Turkish episode doesnt apply to Pakistan

(July 25, 2016)
Never before have Pakistans politically active circles expressed
pleasure and satisfaction over a failed coup attempt in another
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country. The PML-N took the lead in celebrating the failed attempt
at a coup in Turkey by a section of its military on July 15. While
extending full support to the Turkish government led by President
Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Binali Yildirim, PML-N
leaders described the collapse of the coup as a triumph of democracy
and a clear assertion of the power of the people, who came out in the
streets on the appeal of President Erdogan to challenge rebellious
troops.
Pakistans print and electronic media carried articles
ancomments in support of the Turkish government. The Senate
passed a resolution that endorsed Turkish democracy and
appreciated the courage of the Turkish people to stand up to the
military and protect the elected civilian government.
Not many people in Pakistan paid attention to the history and
dynamics of civil-military relations in Turkey, which makes that
country different from Pakistan in several respects. Similarly, no one
talked about the challenges to Turkish democracy despite the failure
of the coup and how President Erdogan was using emergency
powers in the aftermath of the coup to cleanse the military, civilian
institutions and lower judiciary of his political adversaries and pack
these institutions with loyalists. The current tensions in civil-military
relations in Turkey are expected to persist and these might lead to
fresh upheavals in politics. The Turkish government plans to purge
the military of the Gulenist elements and some of its top
commanders are going to be put on trial at a time when military
cohesion and morale are needed to cope with Kurd separatists and IS
extremists.
Pakistani enthusiasm for the beleaguered Turkish government
can be better understood in the context of the uncertain civil-military
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relations in Pakistan. The PML-N and its allies have played up the
Turkish episode in order to deter Pakistans security establishment
from expanding its role in the political domain. The ruling party is
hoping that the threat of popular resistance would contain the role of
the military and ensure civilian continuity in Pakistan.
The single variable explanation of the failure of the military
coup in Turkey is misleading. The response of the people to the
appeal for help by President Erdogan was an important contributory
factor, but this was not the key element in the civilian triumph. The
initiator of rebellious coup violated the standard operating procedure
for staging a coup. First, if a coup is not spearheaded by the top
command of a professional military, it is likely to collapse. In this
case, the rebellious elements have to fight on two fronts: their
colleagues who refuse to join them and the political leadership that
needs to be dislodged. This divides the military and dissipates their
energy for swift action. Second, it is important for the military
staging a coup to establish quick control over key government
offices, disarm its security system and take over the official
communication system.
A divided military will always find it difficult to establish a
stable control of state institutions and networks. Third, the top
leadership to be dislodged needs to be quickly isolated from their
loyalists and supporters so that they do not mobilise them. The key
leaders of the target regime are either arrested or detained in their
residences in a manner that they are isolated from the outside world.
The rebellious Turkish military failed on all three counts. The
military as a whole was not united and it was unable to control key
government installations in Ankara and Istanbul. It did not know
that President Erdogan was not in Ankara that night. By the time it
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came to know of his location, he was able to issue an appeal to the
people and moved to Istanbul which was his main support base as
had served as mayor of Istanbul in the past. As the people realised
that the president and the prime minister were free to function, the
public responded positively to the appeal. It took almost three hours
from the first information about the beginning of the coup for the
public to take to the streets in large numbers. Had the rebellious
military succeeded in following the first three standard operating
procedures, the appeal to the people which actually led to the
failure of the already-faltering coup could not have been made.
The popular response to President Erdogans appeal in Turkey
can be attributed to the governments successful economic and social
development policies since the Justice and Development Party came
to power in 2002. The Turkish government was able to improve the
delivery of basic services to the people and this created a widely
shared perception at the grassroots level that the peoples quality of
life had improved under this government.
The Turkish public reciprocated the good work done by
Erdogan as prime minister (2003-14) by responding positively to his
appeal.
In the case of Pakistan, however, it is difficult to say whether
the civilian federal and provincial governments have adequately
addressed the socioeconomic problems of the poor or improved the
quality of life of ordinary people in the country. The current political
order has entrenched itself in Pakistan by tolerating corruption and
has relied on the partisan use of state patronage to build support.
Therefore, the direct beneficiaries of state patronage and those who
have made money one way or another under the current civilian
order are expected to support such a corrupt and lopsided system in
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Punjab. However, the probability is extremely low that there would
be a spontaneous display of popular support in the major cities if the
civilian order is threatened by non-democratic pressures.
The civilian order in Pakistan can be secured by ensuring
corruption-controlled governance and political accommodation with
the opposition. This needs to be coupled with managing irritants in
civil-military relations, such as the extension of the powers of the
Rangers in Sindh, security and foreign policy priorities, civilian
aspects of countering terrorism and relations with India and
Afghanistan. Consensus-building on these issues can strengthen trust
between civil and military authorities and this holds the key to
political stability in Pakistan.

Local Roots of Transnational Terrorism

(July 11, 2016)
Terrorist attacks in Turkey, Bangladesh, Iraq and Saudi Arabia
during the last two weeks have underlined the transnational
character of this menace. This does not mean that there is a central
command sitting somewhere and systematically ordering such
attacks. The transnational character of terrorism is country-based
and managed by autonomous local groups that exploit local and
region-based socio-political and economic grievances.
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What these extremist and hardline groups share across territorial
boundaries of the state is an ideology and agenda based on an
extreme and violent interpretation of certain religious doctrines. The
other transnational aspect is inspiration from the leadership and the
causes which they want to serve. With a global ideological
framework and an allegiance to a supreme leadership, these groups
function within the local context of a country, cashing in on the
widespread alienation that has developed among young and middleaged people in these countries from existing political and economic
arrangements. Therefore, local conditions play no less of a role in
moving people towards an extremist and violent disposition than the
extremist interpretation of an ideology. Modern information
technology makes it easy to combine these sets of factors, exchange
messages and engage in ideological inspiration.
Terrorist attacks in Turkey, Bangladesh and Iraq have been
attributed to the Islamic State (IS) that stands for a universal
caliphate and attracted much attention at the global level because of
its initial successes in Iraq and Syria. In June 2016, it suffered
military setbacks in Iraq and Syria. The city of Fallujah, in Iraq, was
taken back from the IS by Iraqi forces. Similarly, some of the gains of
the IS in Syria were reversed. This seems to be an important cause of
the recent attacks especially the two in Iraq as the IS wanted to
demonstrate that it still had the strength to assert its authority.
These attacks were widely condemned in Muslim countries by
official and non-official circles. The unanimity in the Muslim world
on condemning these attacks weakened when it came to identifying
the culprit. Most people with strong religious orientations hold the
enemies of Islam, especially the US and the West, as the real
sponsors of attacks in Muslim countries, especially in Saudi Arabia.
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Others appear convinced that only non-Muslims could launch an
attack in Saudi Arabia.
If the sources of the attacks are externalised the West and the
enemies of Islam then there are limited chances of checking these
incidents. What are the options available to the target states to adopt
punitive action against some Western countries and unidentified
enemies of Islam? All major militant movements like al Qaeda, the
IS, the Taliban, al Shabaab and others invoke religious doctrines by
giving them their own extreme interpretations that justify the use of
violence in certain situations. Most of them want to grab political
power in some country. The IS talks about a transnational Islamic
state under a caliph.
The major causes of the rise of these militant organisations and
terrorist incidents have to be located within each country. It is the
local and regional conditions that give rise to such movements and
expose these countries to external penetration and influences.
External players states and movements exploit the troubled
situation in a country to their political advantage. These militant
movements can attract external financial and material support,
provided the external players are convinced that such movements
have developed the capacity to impact the internal situation in the
country of their existence.
The role of these movements is linked closely with the internal
conditions of a country, internal divisions and conflicts, religioussectarian divides and the inability of the government to assert the
primacy of the state. If the government policies become very
oppressive and highly partisan, the movements based on religious or
secular ideologies can emerge to challenge the state system. The
experience of many Islamic states shows that if the state system
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becomes too oppressive, hardline interpretation of religion becomes
the idiom of dissent. In certain cases, Muslim states patronised
religious orthodoxy and militancy and with the passage of time some
of these movements went out of control.
Such movements have greater prospects in states that suffer from
internal chaos and a weakened state authority, or if state authority is
too partisan in political management. Iraq is a good example of how
internal chaos and non-existent governance enables such movements
and groups to grow. Iraqs troubled internal situation enabled al
Qaeda and some other extremist groups to make inroads. Later, the
IS virtually replaced all of them. It also benefited from the internal
conflict in Syria. The troubled internal situation in Yemen, Somalia
and Libya provided safe havens to extremist and terrorist groups.
Saudi Arabia experienced terrorism in the past. Now, it faces a
new wave of terrorist incidents. It needs to examine internal sources
of terrorism, the export of a fundamentalist religious ideology to
other countries and its involvement in regional conflicts, especially in
Yemen and Syria.
Turkeys ambiguous approach vis-a-vis the ISs role in Syria, in
view of its confrontation with the Kurdish movement, has enabled
the militant group to make inroads into Turkey. It needs to review its
regional approach.
In Bangladesh, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasinas ill-advised
strategy of eliminating her political opponents, such as those within
the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Jamaat-e-Islami, has made
more societal space available to hardline militant groups. She needs
to adopt an accommodating disposition towards the political

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opposition that functions within the constitutional framework in
order to stall the current drift towards extremism.
Above all, the political divide in the Middle East between Saudi
Arabia and Iran has increased intra-regional conflict and
vulnerability to external political and military interventions. These
two states need to moderate their competing political agendas and
reduce their involvement in affairs of neighbouring countries.
Internal turmoil in Syria and Yemen has created safe havens for
extremist and terrorist groups.
The sooner Muslim states recognise that the key solutions to the
problems of extremism and terrorism lie in their hands, the better.

Political Options for the PML-N

(June 27, 2016)
There is a widely shared belief in Pakistan that participatory
democracy is the most suitable system of governance for the country.
However, this does not mean that the leadership that manages to win
elections gets a free hand to rule till the next general elections.
Democracy must manifest itself in the form of functioning
institutions and processes that are relevant to problem-solving,
constitutionalism, an egalitarian socioeconomic order, delivery of
basic services and security to citizens on a non-discriminatory basis,
a minimum consensus for working harmoniously between the
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government and the opposition, and a check on corruption and
nepotism in government.
Democracy in Pakistan falters on most of these counts.
Democratic institutions are being sidelined because of personalised
governance that resembles the traditional sultan model. Loyalty to
the chief is more important than professionalism and competence.
The distribution of state patronage on a skewed political criterion
and tolerance for corruption in government has created personalised
loyalty for the PML-N in Punjab.
The federal cabinet has lost its importance as a policymaking
agency. It has not met on a regular basis in 2016 and matters are
settled through informal interaction with a few select top leaders of
the PML-N. The fate of parliament, especially that of the National
Assembly, is not very different. The two houses have lost some of
their salience because the prime minister hardly attends any sessions.
Cabinet members are often absent. Members showed little interest in
the budget debate in the National Assembly earlier this month and
there was a serious problem of maintaining the quorum. The
National Assembly cannot become a focal power centre if the prime
minister, cabinet members and other senior members shy away from
attending its sessions or leave the house after a very brief presence.
The prime minister has been out of the country for medical
reasons for over a month. Ishaq Dar and a small groups of associates
are looking after state affairs. There is no constitutional provision for
such a substitution of the prime minister. By pursuing an extraconstitutional strategy, the PML-N has exposed the redundancy of
the office of prime minister and shown that a small group consisting
of the political elite and top bureaucrats can run the state. Unless
some constitutional amendment is made to cover this gap, the wrong
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precedent has been set that can be employed by other competing
political interests.
The PML-N government appears to be satisfied with the
economy, as demonstrated by Dars statements in connection with
the budget. This optimism is not shared by those not belonging to the
ruling party. The finance minister appears so confident of the
economic options available to the people that he recently suggested
that they should eat chicken if they cannot afford daal. What about
those who do not have resources to buy chicken? The major threat to
the democratic political order is the overconfidence of the ruling
party at the federal level and the desperation of the opposition. The
PML-N and especially the political team around the prime minister
are convinced that the government is secure and the opposition has
no popular support and that it comprises some rootless power
seekers, who cannot stop the PML-N from completing its term of
office and then winning the next general elections.

The PML-N needs to adopt a more realistic approach towards

what is happening outside the ruling circles. It should not deny that
there is widespread alienation outside the ruling circles. The
stalemate between the government and the opposition will not help
the former to stay in office peacefully. If the PTI, the PPP and Dr
Tahirul Qadri join hands to challenge the government on the streets
of Lahore and other cities of Punjab, there will be much instability
and uncertainty about the future direction of politics. Then if the
joint opposition street protests persist for some time, other parties are
likely to join them. This can also encourage the dissatisfied elements
in the PML-N to shy away from supporting the current ruling group.
The opposition appears to be opting for a final showdown with the
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PML-N because it feels that given the non-accommodating
disposition of the government and the gradual strengthening of the
house of Sharif and its beneficiaries, this may be their chance to stay
in the game of politics.
After the return of the prime minister to Pakistan, the PML-N
can deal with the internal political situation through different
strategies. It may continue with the present policy of living under a
self-cultivated perception that everything is excellent and that the
opposition lacks the capacity to take it on. This will mean no
flexibility or accommodation towards the opposition on any issue
and treating its agitation as a law and order issue.
A compromise on some issues is another option. However, such
a compromise formula can work only if this offer is made in the
initial stages of the protest. The compromise could be on
investigations of the Panama Leaks. However, this can drag the
prime minister into a major political crisis.
The prime minister can undertake a major change in his cabinet
by bringing in professional people and those more acceptable to the
opposition.
Another option would be an in-house change of leadership.
Nawaz Sharif decides to quit and appoints a person from his party in
consultation with some people outside the PML-N. The new prime
minister should not be from the House of Sharif. Nawaz Sharif can
exercise his leadership from the outside because he will continue to
be the main vote-puller for the PML-N.
The best option is to first seek political accommodation with the
opposition. If this does not work, the prime minister should opt for
new elections before the end of 2016. If he can renew his mandate,
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he will overcome most of his current problems. Political events are
expected to move fast in the near future. At the moment, the
initiative is with the prime minister. This may not remain the case if
his current political problems are allowed to fester.

Foreign Policy Dilemmas

(May 30, 2016)
The death of Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Mansoor in a drone
attack in Balochistan on May 21 has raised several serious issues
about the formulation and management of Pakistans foreign policy.
The most serious deficiency exposed in Pakistan's foreign policy is
the slow and outdated response of our government machinery.
Pakistan was the last to acknowledge the death of the Taliban leader.
It was only after the Afghan Taliban had elected a successor that
Pakistan was left with no option but to confirm on May 26 that
Mullah Mansoor had died. Keep in mind that the incident took place
on Pakistani territory.
There is lack of unity of mind among policymakers on critical issues
and an absence of clarity on how to approach problems. While the
foreign ministry was making up its mind as to what actually
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happened, the interior minister was raising doubts over whether
there had been a drone strike or was some other type of action had
killed two persons in a car in Balochistan. By this time Pakistan had
officially protested to the US for carrying out the drone attack. The
interior minister also questioned as to how the Pakistani passport
and CNIC of those killed survived the fire after the attack. The
question was understandable as the passport and CNIC issue
exposed the interior ministry to criticism.
The disarray in foreign policy is reflected in the statements coming
from the top people in the Foreign Office on the Afghan peace
process. The statements before the death of Mullah Mansoor
indicated that there was hardly any progress in this respect.
However, the post-death statements give the impression that the
peace process was progressing and had been undermined by the
drone attack. There was a meeting of the QCG in Islamabad on May
18. Afghanistan scaled down its representation at the meeting with
its ambassador attending it instead of its deputy foreign minister. The
meeting did not give any indication on whether the Afghan Taliban
were willing to talk to Kabul. A degree of disappointment on the
disposition of the Afghan Taliban was reflected in our foreign
secretarys statement. The tone of the Pakistani leadership changed
after Mullah Mansoors death, creating the impression as if the
Afghan Taliban were on board for peace talks.
The confusion surrounding Pakistans policy towards the Afghan
Taliban persists. Pakistan denies their presence in the country.
However, after the Mansoor incident, how credible is this denial?
The dilemma of Pakistans Afghanistan policy is that the US accuses
us of extending subtle support to the Afghan Taliban. On the other

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hand, the militant group and its Pakistani sympathisers blame our
government for serving American agenda in the region.
Pakistans policy on American drone strikes continues to lack
credibility. Since the beginning of the strikes in 2004, Pakistan has
periodically protested against them but to no avail, although their
frequency has declined in recent times. It appears that Pakistan only
protests against them to keep its foreign policy record straight and to
satisfy domestic political needs.
In terms of abstract principles of international law and the notion of
sovereignty, Pakistan has some options available to counter the
drone policy. However, Pakistan's rulers need to enlighten the people
as to the practical options available to them in view of the ground
realities of global and regional politics and Pakistans dependence on
the US in the economic and military spheres.
There is a need to conduct a down-to-earth review of Pakistans
foreign policy parameters, especially with respect to its Afghanistan
policy. This calls upon the rulers to pursue a unity of command for
foreign policymaking and management.
In contemporary world politics, a credible foreign policy is based on
the inner political and economic strengths of a country and the
positive relevance of that country to other states, especially its
immediate neighbours. Pakistan needs to give high priority to putting
its political and economic house in order. The government and the
opposition need to work towards building political harmony and
trust by cultivating political accommodation and constitutionalism in
letter and in spirit. Democracy cannot be a cover for perpetuating
socio-economic and political inequities, and corruption and misuse
of state resources.
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A viable economy with minimum dependence on foreign aid
increases the foreign policy options available to a country. The aim
has to be to improve the quality of life of ordinary people through
participatory development.
In addition, Pakistan needs to control religious and cultural
intolerance and terrorism. The military has played an important role
in meeting these challenges. The civilian governments should be
more forthcoming with the civilian aspects of countering terrorism.
Unless Pakistan addresses this issue, it will find it difficult to build a
positive relationship with the rest of the world.
It can also expand its foreign policy options by articulating mutually
rewarding economic considerations. A relationship can be judged by
the tangible expansions of trade, investment and cultural interaction
rather than giving a countdown of the signed MoUs, which are not
always implemented. With the exception of China, there is hardly
any significant and concrete expansion of Pakistans relationship in
the above categories with any country during the last three years.
Pakistan faces a serious energy crisis, which is adversely affecting our
economy. Therefore, we need to get gas and electricity from all
possible places in the neighbourhood rather than deciding this matter
on the basis of the priority of our rulers. Therefore, in addition to the
current energy projects that we are pursuing, we need to obtain gas
and additional electricity from Iran as there is no intervening foreign
territory for trade and energy transfers from that country. Peace on
Pakistans borders is an important requirement.
Pakistan's borders should be breached by roads, railways, pipelines,
electricity transmission lines, trade, and people rather than by violent

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elements, intelligence agents, drugs and illegal human and material
smuggling.

The Panama Leaks and Pakistani Politics

(May 2, 2016)
Pakistan continues to drift towards intense internal political
confrontation, which, if not contained through accommodation, can
unravel the current political order. Even if the current uncertainty
persists for some months, it will adversely affect the federal
governments capacity to cope with internal security, extremism and
terrorism-related issues. This is likely to increase distrust between the
civil and the military, the signs of which can already be detected.
Time is the key to the outcome of the current political crisis. The
longer it persists and more intense it becomes, the better for the
opposition. It would be best for the PML-N government to curtail its
tempo and find a way out soon. This argument conflicts with its
current strategy of pushing for confrontation at every level, from the
prime minister to the PML-N media drumbeaters, who think their
verbal wrangling on TV will salvage the situation.
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The conflict was triggered by the leaks that named about 200
Pakistanis with offshore accounts, financial affairs and holdings of
property abroad. Though the prime minister is not directly
mentioned in the Panama documents, his name appears with
reference to his children who are said to be engaged in these affairs.
However, the fact that Nawaz Sharif addressed the nation twice on
this issue, brought him into the controversy. Hardly anybody paid
attention to other names on the list. This strategy was accompanied
by the PML-N top leaders decision to jump into the fray to defend
Nawaz Sharif and his family and they also launched a counteroffensive by blaming a number of opposition leaders of corruption.
What provided additional fuel to the controversy were the
contradictions in interviews given by the prime ministers children at
different times to the media.
This was a God-sent opportunity for Imran Khan to return to the
political centre-stage. The PTI had been pushed to the sidelines after
the end of the 2014 sit-in. Imran Khan availed of the Panama leaks
to raise the issue of corruption in the higher echelons of the
government. The PML-N need not adopt a dismissive attitude
towards the PTI. It is unlikely that the impact of the Panama leaks
will fade away. The current situation is different from what it was
when the PTI launched its 2014 sit-in. With the exception of the JUIF and the Balochistan-based allies, the PML-N has not got any firm
support from others.
The PPP is pursuing a two-track policy. Its Punjab-based
leadership wants to take on the PML-N in order to salvage their
faltering fortunes in the province. However, Asif Ali Zardari and
some of his Sindh-based loyalists are keeping their options open,
hoping that Nawaz Sharif would offer protection to their human
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assets in Sindh. These may prove to be false hopes because the
federal government is not in a position to protect Zardari loyalists. If
the PPP decides to side with the PML-N, the PPPs fate will be
completely sealed in Punjab, at least for the next general elections.
The Jamaat-e-Islami has already launched its protest for the
elimination of corruption, although it has not so far held a joint rally
with the PTI. A number of religious groups are unhappy with the
PML-N for different reasons. The Pakistan Awami Tehrik has
decided to join the ranks of the opposition on the issue of the
Panama Leaks. If these parties and religious groups decide to work
together to challenge the PML-N, it will face an extremely difficult
situation. If these groups continue to oppose the government in their
individual capacity, a political stalemate can persist for a longer time.
The PML-N has decided to adopt a strident approach towards
the opposition, especially the PTI. The Sharif brothers are holding
public meetings in different cities, showering the people with state
funds for development projects and infrastructure work. They are
also promising to end electricity shortages, reduce its price and make
state funds available to people through one project or another. State
funds are being used liberally in pursuing a media campaign. An
important political line pursued by the PML-N is to label all political
adversaries as anti-national and anti-people because these are said to
be undermining the governments public welfare projects.
Another dimension of the current political situation is the
growing strain in civil-military relations and subtle anti-military
propaganda by the federal government. The main line of argument is
that the military is using its clout to pressure the elected government.
Some political activists are saying that any unconstitutional change
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or coup will not be accepted. Some are raising questions as to who
was using Imran Khan against Nawaz Sharif.
The PML-N is disturbed by the armys unilateral decision to
undertake a security operation against the facilitators of terrorism in
Punjab and its success in busting the Chottu gang after the Punjab
polices failure to do so. Further, the army chiefs statement calling
for an end to corruption altogether and the announcement of
punitive action against senior army officers are viewed by PML-N
loyalists as pressure tactics against their governments in Islamabad
and Lahore. The PML-N resists the militarys autonomous role in
Punjab because it compromises its claim of an exclusive and
unchallenged monopoly of power in Punjab.
The only option available to Imran Khan is to continue building
street pressure on the federal government and evolve a working
arrangement with other political parties to mount increased pressure.
Street protest will be his main strategy. This confrontation can persist
for several months unless the PML-N loses patience and engages in
some kind of political adventurism, either by using the state
apparatus against the opposition in a brutal manner or by using
executive powers to tame the security establishment in Punjab.
The governments fight for survival will compromise its efforts to
address the issues of internal security. The agenda for madrassa
reforms and societal mobilisation for countering extremism and
terrorism will be put on the back-burner because it cannot afford to
alienate more people. The struggle for power with an uncertain
outcome will mark Pakistani politics this summer.

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Democratic politics under threat

(April 18, 2016)
Pakistans politics moves from crisis to crisis. It seemed, in midMarch, that the PML-N-led federal and Punjab governments had
overcome the major political challenges and their relations with the
military had stabilised. A good number of PML-N leaders had
started thinking of sweeping the 2018 general elections and ruling the
country well beyond that date.
This dream received a setback by a number of quick political
and security developments in the final week of March and the first
two weeks of April. The latest crisis was triggered by the release of
the Panama Papers, which revealed the off-shore financial activities
and foreign assets of about 200 Pakistanis. This list included three
members of the prime ministers family, which provided the muchneeded opportunity to the opposition to raise ethical questions on the
role of the PM. Others pointed out the contradictions in the
explanatory statements of the family members of the prime minister.
The PML-N adopted a contradictory policy to cope with the
political fall-out of the Panama leaks. On the one hand, the ruling
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party rejected the notion of moral responsibility of the PM and
maintained that the two sons of the PM were doing business outside
of Pakistan. Therefore, no question could be raised about their
financial activities in Pakistan, nor could the PM be held responsible
for their business activities. On the other hand, the PM addressed the
nation on radio and TV to defend him and his family. Some
members of the federal cabinet and the PML-Ns drum-beaters
resorted to a counter offensive against the opposition leaders,
especially Imran Khan, on TV channels, threatening to expose their
corruption. The PML-N activists minced no words in suggesting that
if the opposition leaders continued to accuse the PM and his family
of financial impropriety, the federal government would expose the
corrupt practices of the opposition leaders.
The combative disposition of the ruling PML-N leaders, in
defending the financial affairs of the PMs family in the media, did
not deter the opposition, particularly the PTI. They availed of the
aggressive discussions to launch more acrimonious criticism of the
PM.
Four other developments created additional pressure on the
federal and Punjab governments. These included the strong protest
by religious groups against the passage of the law for protection of
womens rights in the Punjab Assembly, which they described as a
negation of Islamic injunctions; and a sit-in for several days in
Islamabad, by religious parties and activists, in the Barelevi tradition,
to register fresh protest against the hanging of Mumtaz Qadri. These
religious groups included a number of leaders who were known in
the past as supporters or sympathisers of the PML-N. The other two
incidents exposed the claim of the Punjab government that there
were no entrenched violent groups in Punjab and that the law and
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order situation was under the governments firm control. These
incidents included a suicide attack at a park in Lahore, killing 75
people; and the Chhotu gang episode. The military was summoned
to restore the authority of the Punjab government.
Imran Khan and the PTI will find it difficult to build political
pressure on the PML-N government without getting the cooperation
of other opposition parties. The planned Lahore sit-in may prove to
be as inconclusive as the one in 2014.
The other major opposition party, the PPP, is keeping its options
open. On the one hand, it wants a comprehensive scrutiny of the
financial affairs of the PMs family. On the other hand, it does not
endorse the PTIs demand for the resignation of the PM and the
proposed Lahore sit-in. The PPP has kept its options open with the
hope that the federal government would offer to protect its key
activists against corruption charges in Sindh.
Another PPP concern pertains to the situation after the PM is
forced out of office. Will there be an in-house change, or will the
army impose a political set-up of its choice, thus delaying fresh
elections for an indefinite period? The PPP would prefer a weakened
PML-N government rather than early elections, because the PPP is
in a shambles in Punjab. Other opposition political parties may be
inclined to come out openly against the PML-N government if they
are assured that new elections would be held within the prescribed
constitutional period of time.
The PPP and some other opposition parties, like the ANP, are
reluctant to accept Imran Khans leadership. Another factor shaping
the disposition of the PPP is the reported inclusion of one or two
PPP names in the Panama list. The Jamaat-e-Islami is expected to
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support Imran Khan, but the JUI-F continues to stand by Nawaz
Sharif. Other religious parties are expected to wait to see how the
confrontation picks up.
Pakistans major political leaders are in London, pursuing
their exclusive agendas. Nawaz Sharif may seek the advice of
financial experts, to cover up the contradictions in the statements of
his sons regarding their financial affairs. Zardari would look for a
deal with Nawaz, while Imran Khan would explore ways to build
pressure on Nawaz.
The army is sitting quietly on the sidelines, watching how the
politicians manage the new political crisis. The militarys capacity to
influence political change will increase if the current conflict
escalates to open and widespread confrontation.
The current uncertain political situation can result in different
outcomes: the opposition parties joining together to challenge the
PML-N in the streets accelerating internal conflict; Nawaz Sharif
continuing to rule as a weaker leader, giving greater initiative to the
military; an in-house change in the PML-N; an interim arrangement
for holding new elections as prescribed by the Constitution; a
military-backed civilian system that will stay in office for a year or
so, for controlling terrorism and political corruption; and a
stalemated confrontation between the PML-N and some opposition
parties. The PM-LN can run into serious trouble if it overplays its
administrative hand against the opposition. The party faces a real
testing time.
Politics in Pakistan has entered, once again, a new phase of
confusion and uncertainty. There is a need to think of the negative
consequences of the on-going political mud-slinging and in-fighting
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on Pakistans economy and the efforts to counter extremism and
terrorism.

THE POLITICS OF RELIGIOUS PARTIES

(April 4, 2016)
Street activism demonstrated by a number of religious groups and
parties identifying with the Barelvi traditions in Rawalpindi,
Islamabad, Karachi and Lahore in the last week of March, 2016, has
underlined the need of reviewing the role of religious political parties
in Pakistan. Political groups in the Barelvi traditions are generally
critical of Taliban-type militancy and support army action against
such groups in the tribal areas. However, the March 2016
developments showed that these groups also resorted to violence to
pursue their religio-political agenda.
Religious political parties are an important feature of Pakistans
political landscape. Their number has proliferated since the early
years of independence. With the exception of the Jamaat-e-Islami,
religious political parties and groups invariably identify with a
particular religious denominational or sectarian group; there can be
more than one party with the same religious sectarian identity.
In addition to their mutual competition, these parties are squeezed
from both sides. On the one hand, the nationwide and
regional/ethnic political parties cultivate support that cuts across
religious-sectarian, ethnic and regional identities. A large number of
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people prefer these political parties rather than religious parties. On
the other hand, religious political parties are under pressure from
hardline groups that espouse violence, if needed, to pursue their
religious and political agendas. Those with strong religious
orientations tend to lean towards these. Some activists shuttle
between religious political parties and militant and jihadi groups.
All religious political parties advocate an Islamic socio-political
and economic order for Pakistan and express varying degrees of
reservations on the notion of the Islamic Republic as set out in the
Constitution of Pakistan. They talk of an Islamic order in broad
terms to reflect their aspirations, or discuss its features at a level of
abstraction. However, they diverge when it comes to translating the
abstract principles or their assertions and pronouncements into a
codified constitutional and legal system, institutional arrangements
and processes of an Islamic system needed for running a state in the
21st Century. They have not been able to produce a shared
constitutional and legal document as an alternative to the existing
constitutional and legal system.
Religious political parties have weak electoral standing. No religious
party has ever been able to secure more than a few seats in the
provincial and national elections. Their performance is better when
they build a nationwide or regional partnership or when they enjoy
the blessings of a military government. If they create a coalition of
their own, their electoral performance improves.
Several reasons explain their dismal electoral performance. Religious
political parties cannot make a credible claim that they are the only
saviours of Islam. The major political parties do not disown Islam.
The PML and its various factions, along with the PPP, the PTI, the
MQM and others, do not reject the identification of the Pakistani
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state with Islam. Their vision of an Islam-oriented political order
diverges from that of religious political parties. The notion of a
secular system in the Marxian sense has never been popular in
Pakistan. Most nationwide and regional political parties talk of
religious and cultural tolerance and socio-economic justice and the
notion of equality.
All political parties recognise the 1973 Constitution as the basic law
of Pakistan which provides theoretical as well as institutional
arrangements for deep connections between the Pakistani state
system and Islam. There is a definite guarantee for the Islamic
character of the Pakistani political system that takes steam out of the
slogan of some religious parties and militant groups that Pakistan is
being turned into a secular system.
Most religious parties have a religious-sectarian identity that restricts
the party to the people with a strong religious-sectarian orientation.
Others, who do not share the religious orientations of the party, stay
away from it. Religious political parties compete with one another
on the basis of religious outlook, sectarian identity and personality of
the leader. Even within each sect, there are more than one party,
making competition more narrowly focused.
Religious parties have an image problem. Not many people,
particularly the educated, trust religious leaders as having enough
political acumen and an understanding of the dynamics of domestic
and global politics. They tend to join the nationwide or regional
political parties in a very large number. The religious parties have to
compete with one another to build support from highly conservative
religious circles. With some exceptions, many religious parties either
sympathise with militant groups or maintain an ambiguous
disposition towards these groups. This alienates a good number of
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people from these parties. The strength of religious parties lies in
having street power of loyal activists and madrassa students. The
parties that have links with madrassas and mosques tend to develop
more political clout. Some parties have made inroads into
government universities and colleges to recruit young people to their
fold.
The strength of religious parties increased during the military rule of
General Ziaul Haq, when he joined with the US and Middle Eastern
states to build Afghan-Islamic resistance to Soviet troops in
Afghanistan. It was during this period that the Jamaat-e-Islami and
some other religious parties that were involved in the first Afghan
jihad or enjoyed the blessings of the military regime, strengthened
their position as money and weapons flowed to selected religious
parties and militant groups.
Some of these parties continued to maintain relations with militant
groups even after the end of the first Afghan jihad and extended
support to al Qaeda and Taliban activists when they entered Pakistan
from Afghanistan, after the US launched its air attack on
Afghanistan in October 2001.
The recent use of violence by some religious parties with Barelvi
traditions has created a spectre of increased protest and violence.
However, the success of their protest depends on their capacity to
muster support from other political parties. Their active role in the
anti-Ayub and anti-Bhutto movements made a political impact
because they were working alongside nationwide political parties.
Similarly, some religious parties have exercised power at the federal
or provincial levels, in collaboration with nationwide and regional
political parties, or by either joining hands with military regimes or
enjoying their blessings. Religious parties can make life difficult for
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any government because of their cadres but none can, on their own,
come to power through elections.

HOW TO JUDGE DEMOCRACY?

(March 3, 2016)
Democracy is the most popular system of government.
Every ruler wants to be known as democratic. In Pakistan, all four
military rulers committed to restore and strengthen democracy.
Three Pakistani military rulers returned the country to democracy
but it was done in a manner that the continuity of their rule was
guaranteed. Today, Pakistan has elected governments at the federal
and provincial levels. However, the quality of democracy is poor
because the rulers are not interested in strengthening institutions and
promoting merit.
Governance is highly personalized with greater emphasis on
loyalty to the leader. State resources and patronage are used in a
highly personalized and partisan manner. The provincial and federal
rulers are opposed to their accountability and they are planning to
reduce the powers of the National Accountability Bureau. If the
NAB went after the ruling party in the Punjab, the PMLN may
decide to limit its role.
The first test of democracy is holding of fair and free elections.
All the competing political parties and leaders must feel that they got
a fair opportunity to compete in the elections. If strong doubts arise
about the credibility of the election authority, elections rules and
procedures, the election campaign and the voting, elections become
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controversial. Therefore, it is important that a large number of
candidates and independent observers are satisfied with the election
process. In Pakistan, the 2013 elections are viewed as controversial
by almost all opposition parties for one reason or another. Even the
Judicial Commission investigating the fairness of the elections,
acknowledged widespread irregularities and doubtful votes.
However, it did not reject the election results. This strengthened the
legal legitimacy of the elections but these continued to be viewed as
controversial in the political circles.
Fair and free elections are an important conditions of democracy.
However, this is not the only criterion. The victory in the elections
does not give a free hand to the rulers to govern the country. The
second condition of democracy is that the ruler abide by the
constitution and strengthen democratic institutions and processes.
Every constitution creates institutions and procedures for law
making, governance and other affairs of the state. The important
institutions are the head of government and the cabinet, elected
parliament and its committees and political parties. How far the
cabinet meets regularly and makes the key policy decisions. If it is a
parliamentary system of government, the role of the parliament
becomes very important. It has to be examined how much
importance the government attaches to the parliament. How often
the prime minister and his cabinet members attend the session.
Similarly, role of the political parties is also examined to judge the
quality of democracy. They key issue is who makes the final decision
and who influences these decisions. How far non-elected institutions
like the military, the judiciary and powerful interest groups influence
policy decisions and their implementation.

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In Pakistan, there is little attempt to strengthen democratic
institutions. Federal and provincial cabinet do not always matter
much in policy making. The prime minister or the chief ministers run
the government as a personal empire, consulting ministers of his
choice. With the establishment of the Apex Committee at the
provincial level for countering terrorism, these committees meet
more frequently than the provincial cabinets. Federal cabinet also
does not meet regularly. The Prime Minister consults some key
ministers and top Army brass for decision-making. The Prime
Minister does not attend the National Assembly meetings regularly.
There are often complaints of non-availability of cabinet members in
the National Assembly and the Senate. The parliament in Pakistan
has not been able to become the main center of power and authority
in the state.
The third criterion for democracy is good governance. This
includes two major issues: law and order; and delivery of basic
services to citizens. The state authorities must be capable and willing
to provide security of life and property to the citizens. If some violent
groups threaten the state and its citizens, the credibility of the
government is undermined. The government must also ensure some
basic civic facilities throughout the country. These facilities and
services include health care, education, adequate supplies of food
and drinkable water and a clean and stable environment. It must
create job opportunities for people and help to ease economic
pressures on people. Here, the performance of various governments
in Pakistan for extending basic services to people is poor. There has
been a steady price hike of the goods needed by ordinary household.
The recent hike in the prices of medicines has hit all section of
population. The federal and provincial governments are unable to
check the increased medicine prices.
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The fourth criterion of democracy is the establishment of the Rule
of Law and ensuring equality of opportunity to all citizens. The
government should ensure that all citizens have equal protection of
law and they are treated equally by law. It should work for
promoting socio-economic equality of opportunities and avoid sharp
economic disparities in the society. If poverty and underdevelopment
increase in the society, there are greater chances of internal turmoil,
conflict and terrorism.
The fifth standard to judge democracy is the enforcement of
accountability of those exercising state power and authority. No
ruler can be above accountability. The accountability process should
be independent of the government so that it can judge the
performance of the ruler in terms of misuse of state resources,
corruption in managing state affairs, misuse of the office and living
beyond ones means.
It is in the domain of accountability of the rulers that Pakistans
performance has been extremely weak. Now, the accountability
process is focusing on the PPP leadership in Sind. If it examines the
affairs of the Punjab and the federal government, the ruling PMLN
can run into serious difficulties. That is why the Prime Minister and
the PMLN leaders are critical of the role of the NAB and they want
to reduce its powers. The objective is to restrain it from looking into
the financial affairs of the government in the Punjab.
These five criteria are the minimum conditions for good democracy.
Most developing countries, including Pakistan, falter on them.
Pakistan has a democratic political system because the elections are
now held regularly. However, the quality of democracy is poor and
the rulers manage the state affairs in a personalized manner that
violates the spirit of democracy.
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(The Urdu version was published in Pakistan Post, New York, March 3,
2016)

TOWARDS A NEW POLITICAL DRIFT IN PAKISTAN

(February 22, 2016)

Pakistans politics is entering a difficult and uncertain phase. Two
important developments in the last week can have far-reaching
implications for the nature and direction of Pakistani politics. First,
the prime minister made angry comments about how the National
Accountability Bureau (NAB) is managing corruption and misusing
state resources. He was visibly unhappy about NABs role as an
autonomous accountability institution. Second, the filing of the First
Information Report (FIR) in Gujranwala against unidentified
persons for the terrorist attack on the Pathankot airbase in India is
another unusual development that will have implications not only
for Pakistan-India relations but also for Pakistans internal politics.
The prime ministers criticism of the working of NAB may reflect his
genuine concerns. However, its timing is politically motivated.
When NAB pursued accountability in Sindh, the PML-N leadership
did not complain about any deficiency in its procedures. There was
no complaint about its rough treatment of those accused of
corruption or misuse of state resources. Several PML-N leaders
supported NABs accountability in Sindh. It was the PPP that
complained about the disposition of NAB and the FIA.
Now, it was the prime ministers turn to take on NAB because the
available media reports suggested that the body was looking into the
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affairs of the PML-N big guns at the federal level and in Punjab. It
was reported that some of the major power-generation and transport
projects as well as the LNG project were under scrutiny. Some blueeyed bureaucrats of the federal and Punjab governments were also
said to be under investigation. All this perturbed the prime minister
because if these actions are allowed to go unchallenged, the PMLNs monopoly of power and resources in Punjab would be
undermined. The Punjab law minister defended the prime ministers
criticism of NAB and blamed it for making big businessmen and
investors like Mian Mansha apprehensive about launching new
business and industrial projects. He also claimed that this would also
undermine the efforts for privatisation of state enterprises running in
losses.
The track record of NAB and its predecessor institutions for
accountability shows that the rulers are not held accountable for their
misdeeds. They may face accountability when they are knocked out
of power. Even in such cases if the ousted rulers agree to work
smoothly with the new rulers, they can save themselves from
accountability. Keeping in view this tradition, there is not much
hope of NAB holding the Sharif brothers, their senior advisers and
beneficiaries responsible for any corruption or partisan use of state
resources.
The prime minister or the Punjab law minister need not worry about
NAB pushing the complaints of corruption against the PML-N
leaders to their logical end. This is quite evident from NABs
response to the prime ministers criticism that reflected its timid
traditions. What worries the prime minister and the PML-Ns top
leaders is that if the establishment extends its blessings to NAB, its

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chairman can adopt a tougher posture towards the PML-N ministers
and other big guns on corruption and misuse of state resources.
It is in the context of the recent prime ministerial statement on NAB
that the second development becomes significant. It is surprising that
the FIR against the Pathankot perpetrators has been filed in
Gujranwala for something that has taken place in another country.
Though no person or group has been named in the FIR, the phone
numbers given by India are expected to be pursued. The filing of this
FIR amounts to partly acknowledging that the incident originated
from Pakistan. India is not going to be satisfied with the registration
of the FIR. While giving credit to the Nawaz Sharif government for
this, the Indian government will use the FIR to engage in
propaganda against the Pakistani establishment. Indias game would
be to cause a breach between the civilian government and the
establishment because it already argues that Nawaz Sharif wants to
improve relations with India and promote trade and that the
establishment is not entirely on-board with this.
The timing of the filing of the FIR is significant. As has been noted,
the prime minister first made a statement about the misdeeds of
NAB. Within a day of this statement, the federal government filed an
FIR in Gujranwala.
It is important that all stakeholders handle the situation with restraint
and caution. If the prime minister has embarked on these two
measures to assert his electoral strength and he hopes that the PPP
will stand by it as it did during the 2014 PTI dharna, he is likely to be
disappointed unless he agrees to protect the PPPs interests in Sindh.
The prime minister should not overestimate his political clout as this
could prove to be misleading.
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Given the ongoing challenge posed by terrorism and extremism, the
civilian authorities and the establishment need to work in harmony.
However, the civilian government needs to pay more attention to
improving governance, controlling corruption and the highly
partisan use of state resources. Furthermore, the civilian government
should be willing to allow independent scrutiny of the major power
generation projects, the metro bus projects in Lahore and Islamabad
and other construction projects. Any rift in civil-military relations
can make the future of Pakistani democracy problematic and
uncertain.

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Protests and Political Uncertainties

(February 8, 2016)
Pakistan has witnessed several medium and small-scale street
protests and stoppage of work over the last month or so. Most of
these protests relate to socioeconomic issues faced by ordinary
people. The protest by PIA employees is the latest and the most
serious reaction to the federal governments policy of denationalisation. The city of Lahore has been hit by protest marches
against the Orange Line city train service being introduced by the
Punjab government as its coveted project to improve public
transport. Most opposition parties have supported the protests by
PIA employees and criticised the use of force against them by the
federal government. Some labour groups have also sympathised with
PIA employees. However, none of them have actually joined the
protest. If different aggrieved groups engage in protest individually,
they can create administrative problems for the federal government,
but isolated protests that are happening right now cannot become a
nationwide challenge for the authorities.
The PIA protest has created a somewhat complex situation
because its network exists in several cities and the death of two
workers in the course of the protest has led to internal consolidation
among the protesters. However, no major political consequence is
expected unless most of the aggrieved groups and political parties
join hands. This does not appear to be happening in the near future.
However, these disparate protests will, from time to time, make it
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difficult for the federal government to devote full attention to other
key challenges, such as countering terrorism, improving the
economy and checking the growing alienation of ordinary people.
The federal government has adopted the public posture of not talking
to PIA protesters unless they return to their duties. The protesters
have been equally stubborn in their demands. Some efforts are
quietly underway to break the deadlock. This stalemate is typical of
Pakistani politics. The competing interests often find it difficult to
agree upon enduring solutions to contentious issues.
Pakistans three major players of the political power game are
facing a widening gap between their desired agendas and what they
actually do in a real-time situation. Consequently, all key players
express dissatisfaction in their own way when it comes to
governance issues and political management, but none of them have
a clear vision for overcoming the gap between what is viewed as
desirable and what is actually achieved. The three major players in
Pakistans power game are the PML-N, the military top-brass and
the major opposition political parties. The PML-N is now focused on
the 2018 elections with the objective of winning it to ensure the
continuity of its rule at least at the federal level and in Punjab. Its
plan is to extend its rule by securing an overwhelming victory in
Punjab, which has the largest number of seats in the National
Assembly. If the PML-N wins 75-80 per cent of the seats in Punjab,
support can be obtained from smaller groups and independents from
other provinces to set up a new government.
This means that the PML-N would keep a firm control on Punjab
and will be able to resist any attempt by the PTI or the PPP to make
inroads in the province. This also means that the PML-N cannot
afford to allow the kind of operation that has been conducted in
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Sindh to counter terrorism and extremism to take place in Punjab
because this would hurt its electoral base and compromise its control
of the province. As the policy of keeping all out of Punjab is
becoming unmanageable, the PML-N is not happy with the current
situation and equates its continued rule with protecting democracy in
Pakistan.
The military top brass is in favour of preserving civilian and
constitutional order and, at the same time, obtain active civilian
cooperation for countering terrorism at the provincial level,
especially in Punjab. These two agendas may not go together. The
political governments work with the military to counter terrorism.
However, these governments also want to protect their political and
electoral assets as well as their capacity to use state resources and
patronage for cultivating political support. This balancing of
imperatives of working with the military in countering terrorism and
preserving political and electoral assets is going to be extremely
difficult in Punjab, which holds the key to the PML-Ns staying in
power at the federal level. Any impression of the loosening of its
hold here can cause serious damage to the partys ambitions for the
next general elections.
The third major player, the opposition, especially the PTI, wants
to pull down the governments of the Sharif brothers. The PPP saved
the PML-N from the dharna onslaught in 2014, but it has pulled
back from that policy without charting a new course of action. The
opposition parties are facing difficulties in building pressure on the
PML-N because of their mutual jealousies and disharmony. The PTI
and the PPP detest each other. The MQMs agenda is shaped by its
interests in urban Sindh, especially in Karachi. The smaller
opposition parties have their exclusive agendas and seek individual
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arrangements with the PML-N government. The opposition,
therefore, finds it quite frustrating when it cannot exert sustained
pressure on the government.
The current wave of protest and agitation has put to test the
PML-Ns skills to cool down the growing resentment against its
policies. The PML-N leadership is not yet willing to accept that its
elitist and self-serving policies have caused alienation and resentment
at the level of the ordinary citizen. The only reason that the current
situation has not blown out of control is that the opposition is
divided and the military is working within the existing arrangement
in order to counter terrorism and extremism.
The PML-N can hold on to power in such a stalemate. It can
improve its prospects by recognising that public anger against its
policies is genuine. It must give up its personalised and clannish rule
for improved governance, pay greater attention to fairness and
transparency in the management of the economy, avoid heavy
partisanship in using state resources and patronage and relieve
economic pressure on the common man. Above all, it needs to adopt
a more up-front approach in dealing with terrorism and extremism
through active cooperation with political and societal groups and the
military.
If the present policies persist, the PML-N will move from crisis to
crisis and political uncertainty will continue to haunt the civilian
order.

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THE POLITICS OF ARMY
CHIEFS EXTENSION OF SERVICE
(February 3, 2016)

The Chief of Army Staff in Pakistan attracts a lot of attention not

only because he heads a large size professional and disciplined army
but also he enjoys autonomy in managing the army and influencing
security policy making.
The Army Chief is a power center in Pakistani state system mainly
because of five reasons. First, Pakistan faced serious external security
threats from the immediate aftermath of independence. This made
the military as a whole and the army in particular important for the
security and survival of the state against external threats. All civilian
and military governments were supportive of allocating financial
resources to the military. Currently, defense expenditure is the
second largest item in the federal budget. It ranges from 17 to 19 per
cent of the total expenditure.
Second, four army chiefs led military take-overs in Pakistan by
dislodging the civilian governments in October 1958, March 1969,
July 1977 and October 1999. Three of them, Ayub Khan, Zia-ulHaq and Pervez Musharraf, either gave a new constitution or made a
number of changes in the 1973 Constitution to their satisfaction and
to ensure that they continued as the President after the restoration of
the constitution. Yahya Khans military regime collapsed because of
the East Pakistan debacle in December 1971 and he was left with no
option but to hand over power to the elected leader, Zulfikar Ali
Bhutto.
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Third, the army is now playing the key role in countering
terrorism and strengthening internal security. This has increased the
responsibilities of the military because the civilian administration
and law enforcing agencies do not have enough capacity to deal with
extremist and terrorist groups. Therefore, there is a heavy reliance on
the army, the air-force and the paramilitary forces for dealing with
the current terrorism threat.
Fourth, the security of Pakistans nuclear program is the
responsibility of the army. It also makes a major contribution to
making of Pakistans security and foreign policy. Its major
contribution is towards Pakistans relations with India, Afghanistan,
the United States, the nuclear policy and internal security. The
opinions of the Air Force, the Navy and the ISI are sought on these
issues.
Fifth, the Pakistan military has become an important player in
Pakistans economy. It manages its commercial and business activity
through five welfare foundations and some activity is directly
managed by the military. Other business and commercial activities
include real estate business, transport, construction and engineering
work, shopping centers, universities, a bank, and several other
commercial undertakings. This has increased the clout of the military
in Pakistani state system and society.
All these factors have given much importance to the military in
Pakistan. A good number of civilians, especially political leaders,
attempt to cultivate senior army officers. However, as a professional
organization, the officers maintain a distance from politicians and
other activists.

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Given the importance of the military as a whole and the Army in
particular, it is not surprising that Pakistani media gives regular
coverage to official activities of Army Chief General Raheel Sharif.
It was a headline story in Pakistani media when the Inter-Services
Public Relations, the militarys media organization, announced on
January 25, 2016 that the Army Chief would not neither seek nor
accept an extension in service.
General Raheel Sharif will complete his three term of office on
November 28, 2016. Why the statement regarding not seeking an
extension of service was issued so much ahead of time? There is an
intriguing politics at the back of this statement, initiated by Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif.
Nawaz Sharif had learnt from the Dharna by the PTI (AugustDecember 2014) that he needs to keep good terms with the Army
Chief to secure his five year term that gets targeted by the opposition
from time to time. The Prime Minister is conceding a lot of political
and decision-making space to the Army Chief rather than the Army
Chief snatching powers from him. This has created the impression
of good relations between the two. In reality, the Army Chief has to
press hard through direct interaction with the PM and through the
Provincial Apex Committees for effective and sustained
implementation of the National Action Plan. The civilian
government support is tainted by its political and electoral interests
which dilutes its interest in implementation of the National Action
Plan in a consistent manner.
In December 2015, the circles close to Nawaz Sharif disclosed that
he had offered an extension of service to Army Chief so well ahead
of the end of his term of office, mainly to tame him. A section of
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the media disclosed this information which started a speculative
debate on if the Army Chief should be given extension.
The idea of the Army Chief and the Prime Minister coming close
to each other gained strength when the Army Chief accompanied the
Prime Minister in his visit to Saudi Arabia and Iran (January18-19).
This was very unusual that the Army Chief would be part of the
Prime Ministers entourage in his foreign trip. The PMLN circles
began to project this visit as a unanimity of views between the two
on the current security issues.
The Army Chief asserted his autonomy by issuing the statement
for not seeking extension of service. This ended the controversy
regarding the extension issue and focused attention again on what
the civilian governments were doing for implementation of the
National Action Plan. The Army Chief is expected to maintain
professional relationship with the Prime Minister and the civilian
government while maintaining his autonomy.
Three other developments are now building pressure on the
Prime Minister. The federal minister for planning and development,
Ahsan Iqbal, has picked up controversy with the provincial
governments of K-P and Sindh on the energy and industrial projects
relating to China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The other
controversy relates to the interior minister Chaudhry Nisar Alis
blistering attack on the leader of opposition, Syed Khurshid Shah.
This has totally spoiled the relationship between the PMLN and the
PPP. Third, the PIA employee strike and its arrogant handling by the
federal government has created another challenge for Nawaz Sharif

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These developments have complicated political management for
the Prime Minister and undermined his capacity to assert civilian
primacy.

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Playing the Diplomatic Card Smoothly
(January 11, 2016)
Pakistan is currently faced with an extremely complex regional
situation that calls for a dispassionate and professional analysis of
challenges and the adoption of mature and long-term strategies to
protect its national interests. There are several options available in
dealing with these challenges. The real test of the countrys
leadership is to adopt the strategies that address Pakistans long-term
interests. It needs to look beyond personal and partisan interests or
the next general elections.
Pakistan has so far muddled through different crises over the last four
decades. A long-term perspective has been missing, mainly due to
the paucity of a deep thought process for shaping diplomacy. Ideally,
the country should adopt a coherent approach towards the issues and
problems in the region, with an eye on the future. This calls for a
unity of mind and a strong understanding of the dynamics of
regional and global politics as well as a realistic assessment of
Pakistans strengths and weaknesses. A prudent foreign policy
cannot be based on a wish list. It must be based on a realistic
assessment of possibilities. The objective should be to either
maximise ones gains or to engage in damage control and at the
same time, be able to wriggle out of difficult situations through astute
diplomacy.
Pakistan faces two difficult issues: the management of its relations
with India against the backdrop of terrorist activity that serves to
subvert this relationship, and the delicate balancing act of extricating
itself from being a party to the current Saudi-Iran struggle for
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regional eminence. We are under a great deal of pressure from Saudi
Arabia to fully support it in its conflict with Iran.
The prospects for removing current tensions between India and
Pakistan were brightened through quick diplomatic footwork by the
two countries, starting with the brief informal meeting of the two
prime ministers on the sidelines of the international environment
conference in Paris on November 30, 2015. The full confirmation of
the changed diplomatic environment between the two countries
came when Indias Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, visited Lahore
on December 25. However, the Pathankot attack has raised a critical
question of who has the veto power over the relationship between
Pakistan and India. Is it the hardline, violent religious groups or is it
the governments of the two countries? It is beyond the scope of this
article to critically examine whether the attack was undertaken by a
militant Pakistani group or whether it was contrived by a hardline
Indian entity with the objective of disrupting the planned talks. If
these talks get disrupted, then these so-called non-state entities will
have succeeded in imposing their policy choices on both
governments. The Indian government may be tempted to strengthen
itself domestically by walking away from the talks. This may give it
some immediate domestic gains, but in the long run, India will hurt
itself. This would amount to making Indias Pakistan policy a
hostage to these extremist groups.
The Pathankot episode should also be a matter of concern for
Pakistan. India has blamed one Pakistani militant group for the
incident, and one Kashmiri group, based partly in Azad Kashmir,
has claimed responsibility. If it is verified that a Pakistan-based group
staged the attack, the countrys civilian and military authorities
should take this very seriously. If these groups can challenge the
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Pakistani state in one area of policy, they can one day take it on in
other areas too, including domestic policies and actions. This will
make Pakistan a dysfunctional state. It will become a multi-authority
state, with each power centre asserting itself in different territorial
units or dictating its terms to the faltering state government. The long
history of hostility and conflict between Pakistan and India cannot
be used as a pretext by Pakistani militant groups to disrupt the
countrys foreign policy. The government and political parties should
not compromise with these groups in order to win their votes. Longterm interests call for the restoration of the primacy of the Pakistani
state and enforcement of a constitutional political order in a
democratic and tolerant context. This is not possible until hardline
religious and violent groups are brought under the control of the
state.
The other issue that challenges the political and diplomatic skills of
the Pakistani leadership is to avoid getting embroiled in the SaudiIran conflict. Pakistans official stance has Saudi leanings, but avoids
a complete identification with Saudi Arabia. The Saudi leadership is
applying strong diplomatic pressure on Pakistan for seeking its full
support. Long-term Pakistani interests demand a well-formulated
non-partisan disposition on the Saudi-Iran dispute. We also need to
avoid any statement that directly or indirectly reflects negatively on
Iran. We need to pursue the Saudi-sponsored 34-nation military
alliance with caution because there is a lot of ambiguity about its
aims and objectives, organisational structure and the ways and
means by which military cooperation can be brought about between
such a diverse array of countries. The command structure of military
and intelligence systems under this alliance is not yet clear.

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The current Saudi-Iran conflict is a struggle for power in the region.
It is also shaped by Irans continued radical revolutionary zeal and
Saudi Arabias growing internal insecurities since the beginning of
the Arab Spring in 2011. Therefore, there is no reason for Pakistan to
become directly involved in this conflict. Pakistan should advise
restraint to both countries and suggest bilateral dialogue for defusing
the conflict.
Pakistan should be working towards bringing down tensions on our
borders and in the region so that it is able to pay more attention to
dealing with internal political, economic and security issues.
Pakistan needs to control internal violence and terrorism and tame
the extremist organisations that employ religious discourse and
jargon to justify violence. Pakistan must also work towards reducing
its economic dependence on external sources by addressing the
energy crisis, faltering industrial growth, a troubled agriculture
sector, and increased poverty and underdevelopment. Pakistans
salvation lies in seeking peace in and around it and putting its
economic and political house in order.

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Terrorism: Domestic and Global Dimensions
(November 30, 2015)
The terrorist incidents in November, especially the ones in Paris
and the explosion of the Russian passenger aircraft in midair in
Egyptian airspace, have reminded us of the transnational scope and
devastating impact of extremism and terrorism. The appeal of terror
groups is partly ideological, attracting people across territorial
boundaries, and partly local, attracting people on the basis of their
grievances against local and national governance systems. A
combination of these two root causes can be lethal because of
modern communication and transportation technology.
International cooperation amongst states is essential for coping
with these trends. However, the internal dynamics of a society facing
terrorism and the nature of the ideological framework of such groups
are no less salient in understanding this phenomenon.
Three major issues are key to understanding the dynamics of
extremism and terrorism. The marginalisation of some and the ways
in which social and political alienation develops in a section of
society; internal incoherence and chaos in the face of the collapse of
state authority and the erosion of the commanding role of the state;
the ideology and worldview of extremist and violent groups, or their
self-articulated narrative of perceived exploitation and injustices and
a promise of turning the ideological utopia into a reality.
Furthermore, criminality and the sheer desire to take advantage
of an unstable situation in society also attracts a good number of
groups and individuals to pursue their exclusive and criminal

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agendas, by identifying with such extremist groups or by floating
their own groups.
Extremism and terrorism have become far more complex than
domestic crime and violence. Therefore, it requires capacity-building
by the state to track these groups and the use of strong and coercive
methods to effectively deal with them. The state must demonstrate
through tough actions that terrorist groups cannot get away scot-free
after resorting to violence. A concerted and holistic approach is
needed to cope with extremism and terrorism, which includes
military and non-military or non-coercive methods. International
cooperation is needed for exchanging information on extremism and
terrorism, building state capacity to control criminal and terrorist
activity, curtailing the movement of personnel and funding across the
territorial boundaries of states. These efforts come in conflict with
the current notion of globalisation that calls for greater movement of
goods, services, investment and trade across state frontiers and
geographical divides. The fruits of globalisation cannot be enjoyed by
the states that suffer from extremist and violent activity. Therefore,
extremism and terrorism become major obstacles to improving state
economy and the quality of life for the common people which, in
turn, contributes in the alienation of people from state institutions
and processes.
The French president and his government acted swiftly and
without reservations in dealing with the post-attack situation. The
guiding principle was that no individual and group can challenge the
authority of the state and that it is the primary responsibility of the
state to protect the life and property of the people. This approach
needs to be compared with the response of the civilian government in
Pakistan, which pursues an ambiguous approach towards extremist
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and terrorist groups. The military also suffered from this dilemma in
the past. However, it has come to the conclusion that such groups
are a threat to state survival. However, the PML-N and its allies
derive electoral support from right-wing and religious groups, which
have sympathy for militancy. The exigencies of electoral politics
make it difficult for Pakistans federal government to articulate a
unity of mind and action on extremism and militancy. It was ironic
that the joint statement issued after the end of the All-Parties
Conference on terrorism in September 2013, described the Pakistani
Taliban as a stakeholder in the Pakistani state and society.
Another interesting facet of terrorism in Paris is that the
European and North American states adopted a unified and
determined disposition for eliminating terrorism. There was no
ambiguity in their view of how to cope with extremist and terrorist
activity. Compare this with the responses of Muslim states to
religious extremism and terrorism. Their state and dynastic rivalries
and religious preferences influence their disposition towards
extremist groups. For example, some conservative Arab states
support hardline religious groups in their quest to dislodge the
Bashar-al-Assad government in Syria. The support of and opposition
to the Muslim Brotherhood movement has been a point of
contention in the Middle East. Each state acts more on the basis of
its dynastic and state exigencies rather than adopting a nonambiguous and determined policy to eliminate extremist and militant
groups.
There is a downside to the policies of the European and North
American states in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Paris.
Though the French government and the US president argued that
terrorism was an act of a few and that it could not be linked to Islam
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or Muslims as a whole, who oppose such violence, at the societal
level, there were numerous instances in these countries of a display
of hatred against local Muslims. Even in New York City, Muslim
men and women were subjected to what The New York Times
described as Islamophobic taunts and physical assaults. The
European states and the US must strictly discourage the negative
attitude of their societies towards Muslims. These governments and
leaders must engage with local Muslim communities in their
respective countries. It is important to understand why a good
number of Muslims feel marginalised in these societies and complain
about non-availability of equitable opportunities for their cultural
and religious expression. The more there are opportunities for them
to enter the national mainstream, the more isolated becomes the
small fraction of their population that subscribes to extremism and
violent methods.

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Aamir Mahar
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