10/21/2016

WhytheBrexitreferendumgivesTrumpfreshhope|HeinrichBllFoundation

Why the Brexit referendum gives Trump

fresh hope
13. Jul. 2016 by Dominik Tolksdorf

Hillary Clinton should be warned by the

British referendum: Similar to the Brexit
movement, Trumps campaign benets
from anti-immigrant sentiment and anger
over the political elites and
mainstream media.
Similar to other countries, most observers
in the US were stunned by the result of the
British referendum on EU membership.
The reactions of the leading candidates for
Even this street art couldn't prevent the brexit.
the position as next US President differed
Creator: duncan c.
This image is
licensed under Creative Commons License.
signicantly from each other. While the
presumptive Democratic presidential
nominee Hillary Clinton declared statesmanlike that she respected the result, the Republican
frontrunner Donald Trump celebrated the outcome, anticipating similar developments for his
own presidential campaign. There are indeed some similarities between the Brexit and the
Trump campaigns which gave the latter fresh hope that it might succeed, against all odds.
President Barack Obama, who had advocated for Britain to remain in the EU, announced that
he respected the result of the referendum. In an effort to calm the situation, he warned against
nancial and international hysteria and argued that the transatlantic alliance would not
dissolve after a potential Brexit. The UK could become a state similar to Norway, which is not a
member but closely afliated with the EU, and that nothing would change in the special
relationship between the US and the UK. Paul Ryan, the Republican Speaker of the House
assured that the UK is an indispensable ally and that its special relationship with the US would
be unaffected by the referendum.
Some observers argued that the Obama administration (including former State Secretary
Clinton) shared responsibility for the Brexit vote due to its declining engagement with Europe in
the past years and the pivot to East Asia in its foreign policy. This assumption is questionable
given that Brexit supporters seem to be neither open for EU interference nor any other foreign
meddling in British politics. Obamas visit to the UK just shortly before the referendum, and his
warning that Britain would be at the back of the queue in any trade deal with the US after a
Brexit, did not seem to help the Remain campaign.
Hillary Clinton argued that results underscored the need for calm, steady, experienced
leadership in the White Housea not-so-subtle plug for her campaign.
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"A wake-up call for internationalist bureaucrats from Brussels to

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"A wake-up call forWhytheBrexitreferendumgivesTrumpfreshhope|HeinrichBllFoundation

internationalist bureaucrats from Brussels to
Washington"
In contrast to Obama and Clintons rather diplomatic reaction to the referendum, Donald Trump
rejoiced that a Brexit would allow the British to regain their independence from the EU and
drew comparisons to his own campaign. Indeed, similar to the Brexit movement, Trumps
campaign benets from anti-immigrant sentiment and anger over the perceived loss of
sovereignty and tutelage by the political elites in Washington, DC and mainstream media.
While many Brexit supporters are opposed to the EUs free movement of labor, which allows
Southern and Eastern Europeans to compete for jobs in the UK, similarly, many Trump
followers support his plan to establish stricter border controls and to build a wall along the
Mexican border to prevent illegal immigration. Both campaigns also benet from growing
xenophobia and particularly Islamophobia. While Brexit supporters fear that EU membership
and regulations by Brussels might eventually force them to accept refugees from Syria and
other (predominantly Muslim) countries, Trump fans back his plans to ban Muslims from
entering the US. The supporters of both campaigns are predominantly White, less educated,
and often fear social and economic decline.
An equally important similarity of both campaigns is their aversion to political elites and
bureaucrats, often referred to as establishment, in distant capitals, be it Washington or
Brussels. The Trump campaign benets from a populist trend that has already affected US
politics for some years and was the reason for the rise of the Tea Party movement. Its success
is based on many voters mistrust against the ruling elites in Washington and the perception
that the government is not accountable to their interests.
Not surprisingly, former Republican Presidential hopefuls also welcomed the result of the
British referendum and drew comparisons to the US. Senator Ted Cruz, for example, argued
that the referendum should serve as a wake-up call for internationalist bureaucrats from
Brussels to Washington, D.C. that some free nations still wish to preserve their national
sovereignty.

Trump will continue to depict Clinton as the establishment

candidate
Ben Carson argued that like the people of America, the people of Great Britain have decided
that they want to take their destiny into their own hands. Both candidates refer to popular view
among Republican outliers and Trump supporters that the US has lost control over its national
sovereignty and self-determination due to its entanglement in international trade regimes,
organizations like NATO, and uncontrolled immigration. The desire to strengthen national
sovereignty also explains Trumps sympathy for Vladimir Putin, who many nationalists in the US
and Europe see as an effective defender of Russias sovereignty and national identity.
Similar to the Brexit referendum, which was considered by many voters as a chance to protest
the
Cameron
the establishment,
can
on of cookies. Find out more
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site uses
cookies.
By government
continuing toand
browse
the site, you are Trump
agreeing
tocount
our use
antigovernment sentiment among his supporters. Many of them believe that only an outsider

like Trump can change the manipulated and rigged system in the US. While British politicians
for long largely underestimated the risk that the Brexit campaign would succeed, the

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WhytheBrexitreferendumgivesTrumpfreshhope|HeinrichBllFoundation

for long largely underestimated the risk that the Brexit campaign would succeed, the
leadership of the Republican Party underestimated Trumps populist campaign and for long
backed establishment candidates like Jeb Bush. They clearly lost control over large parts of
the traditional Republican electorate and still have a hard time adjusting to the idea that Trump
will become their partys nominee.
Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party should be warned by the British referendum. Donald
Trump will continue to depict Clinton as the establishment candidate who has been involved
in politics for decades and does not understand the concerns of the majority of the population.
President Obama acknowledged that the Brexit campaign was fueled by populist anger, but
advised voters in the US against supporting Trump as a way to express such frustration. Trump
could hardly be a legitimate spokesperson for a populist surge of working-class people, as he
very much embodies the global elite that have taken advantage of the forces of global
capitalism.
It remains to be seen whether such advice is effective. Many observers would not have thought
that the British would really vote to give up EU membership. Similarly, many observers do not
believe that Trump can really win the presidential election in November. Let the British
referendum be a cautionary tale.
This article is part of our special Europe's future after "Brexit".

This article is licensed under Creative Commons License.

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