Los gastos mximos anuales registrados en la estacin hidromtrica Las Perlas en el ro Coatzacoalcos se mue

de este sitio un bordo para proteccin contra inundaciones. Calcular los gastos de diseo para los perodos de
Calcular los gastos de diseo con las funciones de probabilidad Normal, Lognormal, Gumbel y DobleGumbel

Funcion de distribucin NORMAL

NO APLICAR A
columna 1

columna 2

columna 3

columna 4

columna 5

columna 6

Ao

Gastos

Gasto ordenado

Nm. De orden

Tr

F(z)

( m /s)

( m /s)

(aos)

26

1954

2230

7430

26

0.9615

13
8.67
6.5
5.2
4.33
3.71

1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960

3220
2246
1804
2737
2070
3682

7061
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565

2
3
4
5
6
7

13
8.666666667
6.5
5.2
4.333333333
3.714285714

0.9231
0.8846
0.8462
0.8077
0.7692
0.7308

3.25
2.89
2.6
2.36
2.17
2
1.86
1.73
1.63
1.53
1.44
1.37
1.3
1.24
1.18
1.13
1.08
1.04

1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978

4240
2367
7061
2489
2350
3706
2675
6267
5971
4744
6000
4060
6900
5565
3130
2414
1796
7430

4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796

8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

3.25
2.888888889
2.6
2.363636364
2.166666667
2
1.857142857
1.733333333
1.625
1.5294117647
1.444444444
1.368421053
1.3
1.238095238
1.181818182
1.130434783
1.083333333
1.04

0.6923
0.6538
0.6154
0.5769
0.5385
0.5000
0.4615
0.4231
0.3846
0.3462
0.3077
0.2692
0.2308
0.1923
0.1538
0.1154
0.0769
0.0385

Miu
Sigma

x=
S=

Media =
Desv. Estndar =

3886.16
1825.91

Calculo del error cuadratico mnimo

ECM=
2790.87

EE=

581.94

o Coatzacoalcos se muestran en la tabla, se planea construir cerca

o para los perodos de retorno de 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000 aos.
mbel y DobleGumbel

AR A LA TAREA
columna 7

columna 8

columna 9

Q calculado

(Error)2

columna 10

( m /s)
3

7115.87

98678.17

1.4261
1.1984
1.0201
0.8694
0.7363
0.6151

6490.04
6074.29
5748.72
5473.65
5230.60
5009.35

325991.82
681798.13
268610.17
277047.96
548186.18
308746.75

0.5024
0.3957
0.2934
0.1940
0.0966
0.0000
-0.0966
-0.1940
-0.2934
-0.3957
-0.5024
-0.6151
-0.7363
-0.8694
-1.0201
-1.1984
-1.4261
-1.7688

4803.50
4608.72
4421.85
4240.44
4062.47
3886.16
3709.85
3531.88
3350.47
3163.60
2968.82
2762.97
2541.72
2298.67
2023.60
1698.03
1282.28
656.45

3540.19
135952.52
130933.04
285623.18
144755.14
443769.15
336229.49
631838.58
456264.17
455088.67
307825.79
156792.12
36755.01
2774.49
42602.55
138361.17
272194.96
1298572.33

1.7688

Eventos de diseo de la distribucion

Tr (aos)
2
5
10
20
50
60
100
200
500
1000
10000

P(z)
0.5
0.8
0.9
0.95
0.98
0.9833333333
0.99
0.995
0.998
0.999
0.9999

Gastos en mcs

1.7688

8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0

4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0

diseo de la distribucion NORMAL

z
Q (m3/s)
0.0000
3,886.16
0.8416
5,422.88
1.2816
6,226.15
1.6449
6,889.51
2.0537
7,636.11
2.1280
7,771.77
2.3263
8,133.85
2.5758
8,589.38
2.8782
9,141.41
3.0902
9,528.64
3.7190164855 10676.736469

8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0

10

15

20

Periodo de retorno en aos

25

30

4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0

10

15

20

Periodo de retorno en aos

25

30

Funcion de distribucin NORMAL

z = w - ((C0+C1W+C2W2)/(1+d1W+d2W2+d3W3))
Donde:
C0=
C1=
C2=

d1=
d2=
d3=

2.515517
0.802832
0.010328

P(z)=1-1/Tr

1.432788
0.189269
0.001308

Probabilidad de no ocurrencia

w=(ln(1/(1-p(z))^2))^0.5
columna 1
Ao

columna 2
Gastos sin ordenar
( m3/s)

columna 3
Gasto ordenado
( m3/s)

columna 4
Nm. De orden

columna 5
Tr
(aos)

1954
1955

2230
3220

7430
7061

1
2

26
13

1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978

2246
1804
2737
2070
3682
4240
2367
7061
2489
2350
3706
2675
6267
5971
4744
6000
4060
6900
5565
3130
2414
1796
7430

6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796

3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

8.6666666667
6.5
5.2
4.3333333333
3.7142857143
3.25
2.8888888889
2.6
2.3636363636
2.1666666667
2
1.8571428571
1.7333333333
1.625
1.5294117647
1.4444444444
1.3684210526
1.3
1.2380952381
1.1818181818
1.1304347826
1.0833333333
1.04

x=
S=

Media =
Desv. Estndar =

3886.16
1825.91

Calculo del error cuadratico mnimo

ECM=
2694.36
EE=

561.814

columna 7
w

columna 8
z

columna 9
Q calculado
( m3/s)

columna 10
(Error)2

0.9615
0.9231

2.5527
2.2649

1.7674717928
1.424985164

7113.40
6488.05

100236.65
328272.04

0.8846
0.8462
0.8077
0.7692
0.7308
0.6923
0.6538
0.6154
0.5769
0.5385
0.5000
0.4615
0.4231
0.3846
0.3462
0.3077
0.2692
0.2308
0.1923
0.1538
0.1154
0.0769
0.0385

2.0782
1.9348
1.8159
1.7125
1.6200
1.5354
1.4566
1.3824
1.3116
1.2435
1.1774
1.1127
1.0489
0.9854
0.9218
0.8576
0.7920
0.7244
0.6536
0.5780
0.4952
0.4001
0.2801

1.1973936163
1.0191366415
0.8685044481
0.7354077052
0.6142466177
0.5015341703
0.3949065685
0.2926461748
0.1934249102
0.0961527989
-0.000120066
-0.096274135
-0.193178505
-0.291746971
-0.393001759
-0.498157397
-0.608744946
-0.726814992
-0.855301902
-0.998749903
-1.164972971
-1.369708688
-1.655465006

6072.49
5747.01
5471.97
5228.95
5007.72
4801.91
4607.22
4420.50
4239.34
4061.73
3885.94
3710.37
3533.43
3353.46
3168.58
2976.57
2774.65
2559.06
2324.46
2062.54
1759.03
1385.20
863.44

684774.76
270391.43
278817.86
550644.54
310564.45
3354.09
134852.35
129963.54
284447.08
144191.85
443477.11
336832.16
634307.29
460304.31
461822.89
316486.31
166177.41
43707.66
6155.76
28044.18
96703.43
175393.47
869676.28

Eventos de diseo de
Tr (aos)
2
5
10
20
50
100
200
500
1000

Q (m 3/s)

columna 6
F(z)

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

columna 8
z

1.7674717928 7113.3982802
1.424985164 6488.0497097

Eventos de diseo de la distribucion NORMAL

P(z)
0.5
0.8
0.9
0.95
0.98
0.99
0.995
0.998
0.999

w
1.1774
1.7941
2.1460
2.4477
2.7971
3.0349
3.2552
3.5255
3.7169

z
-0.0001
0.8407
1.2805
1.6436
2.0521
2.3244
2.5735
2.8754
3.0871

Q (m3/s)
3,885.94
5,421.21
6,224.29
6,887.24
7,633.09
8,130.21
8,585.10
9,136.30
9,522.91

1.1973936163
1.0191366415
0.8685044481
0.7354077052
0.6142466177
0.5015341703
0.3949065685
0.2926461748
0.1934249102
0.0961527989
-0.000120066
-0.096274135
-0.193178505
-0.291746971
-0.393001759
-0.498157397
-0.608744946
-0.726814992
-0.855301902
-0.998749903
-1.164972971
-1.369708688
-1.655465006

8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
-1

-0.5

0
Z

0.5

columna 9
Q calculado
( m3/s)

1.5

6072.4888177
5747.0082442
5471.9679392
5228.9457279
5007.7169076
4801.9145143
4607.2224804
4420.5045602
4239.3358056
4061.726023
3885.94077
3710.3724289
3533.4341072
3353.4573018
3168.5755246
2976.5711578
2774.6486316
2559.0637637
2324.458676
2062.5360354
1759.0282506
1385.1999688
863.43564304

3000
2000
1000
0
-1

-0.5

0
Z

0.5

1.5

columna 3
Gasto ordenado
( m3/s)

Tr
(aos)
0

Gasto ordenado Q calculado

( m3/s)
( m3/s)
0
0

7430
7061

26
13

7430
7061

7113.3982802
6488.0497097

6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796

8.6666666667
6.5
5.2
4.3333333333
3.7142857143
3.25
2.8888888889
2.6
2.3636363636
2.1666666667
2
1.8571428571
1.7333333333
1.625
1.5294117647
1.4444444444
1.3684210526
1.3
1.2380952381
1.1818181818
1.1304347826
1.0833333333
1.04

6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796

6072.4888177
5747.0082442
5471.9679392
5228.9457279
5007.7169076
4801.9145143
4607.2224804
4420.5045602
4239.3358056
4061.726023
3885.94077
3710.3724289
3533.4341072
3353.4573018
3168.5755246
2976.5711578
2774.6486316
2559.0637637
2324.458676
2062.5360354
1759.0282506
1385.1999688
863.43564304

Funcion de distribucuion LOGNORMAL

columna 1
columna 2
columna 3
Ao
Gastos sin ordenarGasto ordenado
( m3/s)
( m3/s)

columna 4
Nm. De orden

columna 5
Tr
(aos)

1954
1955

2230
3220

7430
7061

1
2

26
13

1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978

2246
1804
2737
2070
3682
4240
2367
7061
2489
2350
3706
2675
6267
5971
4744
6000
4060
6900
5565
3130
2414
1796
7430

6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796

3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

8.6666666667
6.5
5.2
4.3333333333
3.7142857143
3.25
2.8888888889
2.6
2.3636363636
2.1666666667
2
1.8571428571
1.7333333333
1.625
1.5294117647
1.4444444444
1.3684210526
1.3
1.2380952381
1.1818181818
1.1304347826
1.0833333333
1.04

=
=

Media =
Desv. Estndar =
Calculo del error cuadratico mnimo
ECM=
EE=

columna 7
z

columna 8
Q calculado
( m3/s)

columna 9
(Error)2

8.9133
8.8623

1.767472
1.424985

7909.92
6756.22

230320.50
92890.50

8.8393
8.7431
8.6995
8.6947
8.6243
8.4646
8.3523
8.3089
8.2177
8.2112
8.0771
8.0488
7.9146
7.8917
7.8196
7.7890
7.7694
7.7622
7.7169
7.7098
7.6353
7.4978
7.4933

1.197394
1.019137
0.868504
0.735408
0.614247
0.501534
0.394907
0.292646
0.193425
0.096153
-0.000120
-0.096274
-0.193179
-0.291747
-0.393002
-0.498157
-0.608745
-0.726815
-0.855302
-0.998750
-1.164973
-1.369709
-1.655465

6084.22
5604.91
5229.44
4918.66
4651.85
4416.64
4205.10
4011.74
3832.63
3664.80
3505.94
3354.14
3207.81
3065.52
2925.91
2787.66
2649.30
2509.15
2365.05
2213.93
2050.85
1866.39
1636.35

665496.75
438361.71
593763.60
1107411.46
833851.66
107162.06
1218.26
2329.19
16034.96
295.72
81760.93
50240.53
221665.23
152503.96
190893.42
139619.50
79693.66
25329.98
14173.63
258.31
366.87
3893.05
25487.75

Eventos de diseo de la distribucion LO

Tr (aos)
2
5
10
20
50
100
200
500
1000

10000

8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000

8.1623
0.4603

1000
0

r cuadratico mnimo
2252.78

0
-2

469.737

P(z)
0.5
0.8
0.9
0.95
0.98
0.99
0.995
0.998
0.999

9000

Q (m3/s)

columna 6
Ln Q

-1.5

5
-1

10

1000

-0.5

columna 7
z

seo de la distribucion LOGNORMAL

z
0.0000
0.8416
1.2816
1.6449
2.0537
2.3263
2.5758
2.8782
3.0902

Q (m3/s)
3,506.13
5,165.12
6,324.55
7,475.82
9,024.08
10,230.56
11,475.58
13,189.10
14,541.57

10000

10

15

1000

-0.5

0
z

20
0.5

25
1

1.7674717928 7909.9171776
1.424985164 6756.2205749

7430
7061

1.1973936163
1.0191366415
0.8685044481
0.7354077052
0.6142466177
0.5015341703
0.3949065685
0.2926461748
0.1934249102
0.0961527989
-0.000120066
-0.096274135
-0.193178505
-0.291746971
-0.393001759
-0.498157397
-0.608744946
-0.726814992
-0.855301902
-0.998749903
-1.164972971
-1.369708688
-1.655465006

6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796

30
1.5

columna 8
columna 3
Q calculado Gasto ordenado
( m3/s)
( m3/s)

6084.2201596
5604.9111012
5229.4394269
4918.6638105
4651.8452142
4416.6438392
4205.0963629
4011.7383037
3832.6292029
3664.8033702
3505.9386798
3354.1439922
3207.8133716
3065.5175496
2925.9135144
2787.6569321
2649.3006586
2509.1539474
2365.0530357
2213.9281286
2050.8461468
1866.3942974
1636.3511513

sto ordenado

Tr
(aos)

Gastos
( m3/s)

Q calculado
( m3/s)

26
13
8.666666667
6.5
5.2

7430
7061
6900
6267
6000

7909.92
6756.22
6084.22
5604.91
5229.44

4.333333333
3.714285714
3.25
2.888888889
2.6
2.363636364
2.166666667
2
1.857142857
1.733333333
1.625
1.529411765
1.444444444
1.368421053
1.3
1.238095238
1.181818182
1.130434783
1.083333333
1.04

5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796

4918.66
4651.85
4416.64
4205.10
4011.74
3832.63
3664.80
3505.94
3354.14
3207.81
3065.52
2925.91
2787.66
2649.30
2509.15
2365.05
2213.93
2050.85
1866.39
1636.35

Funcion de distribucuion GAMA de III Parametros

columna 1
Ao

columna 2
Gastos sin ordenar
( m3/s)

columna 3
Gasto ordenado
( m3/s)

columna 4
Nm. De orden

1954
1955

2230
3220

7430
7061

1
2

1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978

2246
1804
2737
2070
3682
4240
2367
7061
2489
2350
3706
2675
6267
5971
4744
6000
4060
6900
5565
3130
2414
1796
7430

6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796

3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

x=
S=

Media =
Desv. Estndar =

3886.16
1825.91

g=

Coeficiente sesgo=

0.6778

gg=
gg=
gg=

8.706
618.84
-1501.26

Calculo del error cuadratico mnimo

ECM=
2205.05
EE=

459.785

columna 5
Tr
(aos)

columna 6
F(x)

columna 7
w

columna 8
z

columna 9
Q calculado

26
13

0.96
0.92

2.553
2.265

1.769
1.426

7511.39
6657.59

8.6666666667
6.5
5.2
4.3333333333
3.7142857143
3.25
2.8888888889
2.6
2.3636363636
2.1666666667
2
1.8571428571
1.7333333333
1.625
1.5294117647
1.4444444444
1.3684210526
1.3
1.2380952381
1.1818181818
1.1304347826
1.0833333333
1.04

0.88
0.85
0.81
0.77
0.73
0.69
0.65
0.62
0.58
0.54
0.50
0.46
0.42
0.38
0.35
0.31
0.27
0.23
0.19
0.15
0.12
0.08
0.04

2.078
1.935
1.816
1.713
1.620
1.535
1.457
1.382
1.312
1.244
1.177
1.113
1.049
0.985
0.922
0.858
0.792
0.724
0.654
0.578
0.495
0.400
0.280

1.198
1.020
0.869
0.736
0.615
0.502
0.395
0.293
0.194
0.096
0.000
-0.096
-0.193
-0.292
-0.393
-0.498
-0.609
-0.727
-0.855
-0.999
-1.165
-1.370
-1.656

6121.17
5717.87
5388.39
5105.76
4855.30
4628.08
4418.18
4221.44
4034.77
3855.76
3682.44
3513.11
3346.24
3180.36
3013.95
2845.36
2672.66
2493.40
2304.25
2100.25
1873.16
1606.85
1259.15

Q (m 3/s)

10000

Q (m 3/s)
-2.000000

-1.500000

-1.000000

-0.500000

1000
0.000000
z

0.500000

1.000000

1.500000

2.00000

columna 10
(Error)2

6624.25
162742.01
606575.37
301540.42
374062.77
748639.46
503669.92
13437.76
31747.10
26061.84
108087.56
30191.41
213846.75
146772.81
371176.14
255387.54
275571.82
186073.40
93428.18
20563.48
3393.06
16834.43
38746.76
38869.23
288210.40
4862253.86

Eventos de diseo de la distribucion GAMMA DE

Tr (aos)
2
5
10
20
50
100
200
500
1000

P(z)
0.5
0.8
0.9
0.95
0.98
0.99
0.995
0.998
0.999

0.500000

1.000000

1.500000

2.000000

seo de la distribucion GAMMA DE 3 PARAMETROS

w
1.18
1.79
2.15
2.45
2.80
3.03
3.26
3.53
3.72

z
0.0000
0.8414
1.2817
1.6452
2.0542
2.3268
2.5762
2.8785
3.0905

Q (m3/s)
3682.44
5328.71
6314.30
7196.05
8264.72
9023.55
9751.51
10677.66
11356.71

columna 7
z

columna 8
Q calculado
( m3/s)

1.769193
1.426310

7511.39
6657.59

1.198470
1.020030
0.869250
0.736031
0.614763
0.501958
0.395248
0.292913
0.193624
0.096291
-0.000038
-0.096242
-0.193193
-0.291803
-0.393095
-0.498283
-0.608898
-0.726990
-0.855493
-0.998949
-1.165169
-1.369888
-1.655601

6121.17
5717.87
5388.39
5105.76
4855.30
4628.08
4418.18
4221.44
4034.77
3855.76
3682.44
3513.11
3346.24
3180.36
3013.95
2845.36
2672.66
2493.40
2304.25
2100.25
1873.16
1606.85
1259.15

columna 3
Gasto ordenado
( m3/s)
7430
7061
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796

Funcion de distribucin GUMBEL

columna 1
Ao
26
13
8.67
6.5
5.2
4.33
3.71
3.25
2.89
2.6
2.36
2.17
2
1.86
1.73
1.63
1.53
1.44
1.37
1.3
1.24
1.18
1.13
1.08
1.04

columna 2

columna 3

Gastos sin ordenar Gasto ordenado

( m3/s)
( m3/s)

1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978

2230
3220
2246
1804
2737
2070
3682
4240
2367
7061
2489
2350
3706
2675
6267
5971
4744
6000
4060
6900
5565
3130
2414
1796
7430

7430
7061
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796

x=
S=

Media =
Desv. Estndar =

3886.16
1825.91

columna 4

columna 5

Nm. De orden

Tr
(aos)

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

26
13
8.667
6.5
5.2
4.3333333333
3.7142857143
3.25
2.8888888889
2.6
2.3636363636
2.1666666667
2
1.8571428571
1.7333333333
1.625
1.5294117647
1.4444444444
1.3684210526
1.3
1.2380952381
1.1818181818
1.1304347826
1.0833333333
1.04

De la tabla 9.6 del libro de Aparicio obtenemos para 25 datos =

y =
y =

1.0914
0.5309

Con los valores anteriores calculamos

= y / S
= x - y /

Alfa =

0.000598

(m3/s)-1

Beta =

2997.97

(m3/s)

Calculo del error cuadratico mnimo

ECM=
2101.82
EE=
Columna 6=

438.2601986079

esta columna calcula el termino Xi = LN(LN(Tr/(Tr-1)))

Columna 7=

esta columna se calcula con la ecuacin Qcalc= beta-(1/alfa)*Xi

columna 9

Q calculado
( m3/s)

(Error)2

3.2386
2.5252
2.0988
1.7894
1.5438
1.3380
1.1595
1.0004
0.8559
0.7226
0.5978
0.4796
0.3665
0.2572
0.1506
0.0455
-0.0591
-0.1644
-0.2717
-0.3828
-0.5000
-0.6269
-0.7699
-0.9419
-1.1811

8416.04
7222.61
6509.26
5991.69
5580.69
5236.47
4937.73
4671.67
4429.95
4206.81
3998.00
3800.31
3611.14
3428.31
3249.90
3074.10
2899.11
2722.97
2543.42
2357.60
2161.53
1949.16
1709.98
1422.11
1021.92

972284.41
26116.20
152674.52
75797.27
175822.02
539534.41
393471.82
5232.30
36081.72
21552.00
85266.52
13997.98
152991.49
88990.37
263067.93
159282.89
168188.43
95462.64
31125.13
57.75
7134.64
78868.98
129614.74
145841.15
599198.72

Eventos de diseo de la
distribucion GUMBEL
Tr (aos)
2
5
10
20
50
100
200
500
1000

Gasto en mcs

columna 8

Q (m3/s)

columna 7

Q (m3/s)
3,611.14
5,507.36
6,762.82
7,967.09
9,525.89
10,693.99
11,857.83
13,393.30
14,553.77

9000

9000

8000

8000
7000

7000
6000

6000

5000
4000

5000

3000
4000

2000
1000

3000

0
0

2000

10
15
Periodo de retorno

1000
0
-1.5

-1

-0.5

0.5

z
1

1.5

0.5

columna 7
z

columna 8
columna 3
Q calculado Gasto ordenado

( m3/s)
3.238550275 8416.0448323
2.5251949408
2.0988093153
1.7894376587
1.5437714325
1.3380214184
1.1594534651
1.0004205007
0.8559409856
0.722559893
0.5977527554
0.4795866668
0.3665129206
0.2572306095
0.1505888878
0.0455085373
-0.059091174
-0.164373955
-0.271694745
-0.382767501
-0.499962003
-0.626901698
-0.76986942
-0.941938735
-1.181143141

10
15
20
Periodo de retorno en aos

z
1

1.5

25

2.5

30

3.5

7222.6050672
6509.2641325
5991.6869596
5580.6886405
5236.4699366
4937.7266791
4671.6653565
4429.9518789
4206.8060044
3998.0043121
3800.3130603
3611.1412708
3428.3125327
3249.9014866
3074.1026066
2899.1078328
2722.9702886
2543.4231642
2357.5990209
2161.5332285
1949.1637794
1709.9795238
1422.1084544
1021.9207268

( m3/s)
7430
7061
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796

sto ordenado

Funcion de distribucin DOBLEGUMBEL

Suponiendo que los siete primeros gastos fueron producidos por una tormenta ciclonica o huracan.
columna 1
Ao

columna 2
Gastos sin ordenar
( m3/s)

columna 3
Gasto ordenado
( m3/s)

columna 4
Nm. De orden

columna 5
Tr
(aos)

1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978

2230
3220
2246
1804
2737
2070
3682
4240
2367
7061
2489
2350
3706
2675
6267
5971
4744
6000
4060
6900
5565
3130
2414
1796
7430

7430
7061
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

26
13
8.667
6.5
5.2
4.3333333333
3.7142857143
3.25
2.8888888889
2.6
2.3636363636
2.1666666667
2
1.8571428571
1.7333333333
1.625
1.5294117647
1.4444444444
1.3684210526
1.3
1.2380952381
1.1818181818
1.1304347826
1.0833333333
1.04

Pob. ciclnica
Pob. No ciclnica

7
18

Parametros estadisticos de los datos no ciclnicos

x=
Media =
2886.67
S=
Desv. Estndar =
874.79
Parametros estadisticos de los datos ciclnicos
x=
Media =
6456.29
S=
Desv. Estndar =
681.25
De la tabla 9.6 del libro de Aparicio obtenemos para 18 datos de la poblacin no ciclnica =

= y / S
= x - y /

y =
y =

1.049376
0.520096

Alfa1 =

0.001200

(m3/s)-1

Beta1 =

2453.10

(m3/s)

De la tabla 9.6 del libro de Aparicio obtenemos para 7 datos de la poblacin ciclnica =

y =
y =

0.4814
0.8932

= y / S
= x - y /

Alfa2 =

0.000707

(m3/s)-1

Beta2 =

5192.25

(m3/s)

Datos no ciclo.
Datos total

Nn=
NT=

18
25

Probabilidad p =

0.72

Calculo del error cuadratico mnimo

ECM=
1946.19
EE=

435.182

a o huracan.

x
columna 6
F(x)

columna 7
z

columna 8
Q calculado
( m3/s)

columna 9

0.9615
0.9231
0.8846
0.8462
0.8077
0.7692
0.7308
0.6923
0.6538
0.6154
0.5769
0.5385
0.5000
0.4615
0.4231
0.3846
0.3462
0.3077
0.2692
0.2308
0.1923
0.1538
0.1154
0.0769
0.0385

3.2386
2.5252
2.0988
1.7894
1.5438
1.3380
1.1595
1.0004
0.8559
0.7226
0.5978
0.4796
0.3665
0.2572
0.1506
0.0455
-0.0591
-0.1644
-0.2717
-0.3828
-0.5000
-0.6269
-0.7699
-0.9419
-1.1811

7946.52
6900.00
6244.00
5749.00
5337.00
4977.00
4654.00
4360.00
4093.50
3854.50
3640.00
3448.50
3276.00
3119.00
2974.58
2840.00
2711.50
2588.00
2466.50
2345.00
2221.00
2091.30
1949.00
1782.00
1557.00

0.9614
0.9231
0.8846
0.8462
0.8077
0.7692
0.7308
0.6923
0.6538
0.6154
0.5769
0.5385
0.5000
0.4615
0.4231
0.3847
0.3462
0.3078
0.2692
0.2307
0.1922
0.1538
0.1154
0.0769
0.0385

e la poblacin no ciclnica =

(Error)2

Tr (aos)
2
5
10
20
50
100
200
500
1000

9000
9000

8000

8000
7000
7000

Q (m 3/s )

266787.8339
25921.0000
430336.0000
268324.0000
439569.0000
988036.0000
829921.0000
147456.0000
21462.2500
42230.2500
4356.0000
54522.2500
3136.0000
121.0000
56444.2564
27225.0000
49506.2500
30276.0000
9900.2500
25.0000
625.0000
19237.6900
14641.0000
484.0000
57121.0000

Eventos de diseo de la
DOBLEGUMBE

6000

6000
5000

5000

4000

4000

3000

3000

2000

2000

1000
1000
0
0
-1.5

5
-1

-0.5

10

0
0

la poblacin ciclnica =

columna 7
z

Eventos de diseo de la distribucion

DOBLEGUMBEL

-1

F(x)
0.5
0.8
0.9
0.95
0.98
0.99
0.995
0.998
0.999

Q (m3/s)
3,276.00
5,270.00
6,485.00
7,561.00
8,900.00
9,909.00
10,900.00
12,210.00
13,200.00

3.238550275
2.5251949408
2.0988093153
1.7894376587
1.5437714325
1.3380214184
1.1594534651
1.0004205007
0.8559409856
0.722559893
0.5977527554
0.4795866668
0.3665129206
0.2572306095
0.1505888878
0.0455085373
-0.059091174
-0.164373955
-0.271694745
-0.382767501
-0.499962003
-0.626901698
-0.76986942
-0.941938735
-1.181143141

9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
5
-0.5

10

0
0

15
0.5

1
z

20
1.5

25
2

2.5

30
3

3.5

columna 8
columna 3
Q calculado Gasto ordenado
( m3/s)
( m3/s)
7946.5
6900
6244
5749
5337
4977
4654
4360
4093.5
3854.5
3640
3448.5
3276
3119
2974.58
2840
2711.5
2588
2466.5
2345
2221
2091.3
1949
1782
1557

7430
7061
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796

sto ordenado

Tr
(aos)
26
13
8.6666666667
6.5
5.2
4.3333333333
3.7142857143
3.25
2.8888888889
2.6
2.3636363636
2.1666666667
2
1.8571428571
1.7333333333
1.625
1.5294117647
1.4444444444
1.3684210526
1.3
1.2380952381
1.1818181818
1.1304347826
1.0833333333
1.04

Gasto ordenado Q calculado

( m3/s)
( m3/s)
7430
7061
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796

7947
6900
6244
5749
5337
4977
4654
4360
4093.5
3854.5
3640
3448.5
3276
3119
2974.58
2840
2711.5
2588
2466.5
2345
2221
2091.3
1949
1782
1557

Funcin de distribucin

NORMAL

Gastos
(m3/s)
7430
7061
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796

Intervalo
i
1
2
3
4
5
6
Media =
Desv. Est.=

Lim. Inf.
Ii
0
1400
2800
4200
5600
7000

Lim. Sup.
Si
1400
2800
4200
5600
7000
8400

3886.2
1825.9

Funcin de distribucin

Marca de
Clase
700
2100
3500
4900
6300
7700
suma=

LOGNORMAL

Intervalo

Lim. Inf.

Lim. Sup.

Marca de
Clase

i
1
2
3
4
5
6

Ii
0
1400
2800
4200
5600
7000

Si
1400
2800
4200
5600
7000
8400

700
2100
3500
4900
6300
7700

=
=
Funcin de distribucin

suma=
8.162268844
0.460320639
GAMA

Intervalo

Lim. Inf.

Lim. Sup.

Marca de
Clase

i
1
2
3
4
5
6

Ii
0
1400
2800
4200
5600
7000

Si
1400
2800
4200
5600
7000
8400

700
2100
3500
4900
6300
7700
suma=

gg=
gg=
gg=
Funcin de distribucin

8.705733115
618.8364216
-1501.26473
GUMBEL

Intervalo

Lim. Inf.

Lim. Sup.

Marca de
Clase

i
1
2
3
4
5
6

Ii
0
1400
2800
4200
5600
7000

Si
1400
2800
4200
5600
7000
8400

700
2100
3500
4900
6300
7700
suma=

0.000598
2997.97

Funcin de distribucin

p=

DOBLEGUMBEL

Intervalo

Lim. Inf.

Lim. Sup.

Marca de
Clase

i
1
2
3
4
5
6

Ii
0
1400
2800
4200
5600
7000

Si
1400
2800
4200
5600
7000
8400

700
2100
3500
4900
6300
7700
suma=

0.001200
2453.10
0.000707
5192.25
0.72

Determinacin de una variable aleatoria con distribucin 2

21-,k-1-m

2 parametros
3 parametros
4 parametros

=
m=
m=
m=

0.05
2
3
4

2 parametros

k-1-m=

2 parametros

3 parametros

k-1-m=

3 parametros

4 parametros

k-1-m=

4 parametros

20.95,3 =
20.95,2 =
20.95,1 =

7.81
5.99
3.84

Nmero
Observado
i
0
11
5
3
4
2

F(Si)

F(Ii)

( i- i)2/ i

0.0867
0.2760
0.5682
0.8260
0.9559
0.9933

0.0167
0.0867
0.2760
0.5682
0.8260
0.9559

1.7502
4.7327
7.3067
6.4451
3.2475
0.9337

1.7502
8.2996
0.7282
1.8415
0.1744
1.2178

25

24.4157

14.0117

Nmero
Observado

F(Si)

F(Ii)

( i- i)2/ i

i
0
11
5
3
4
2

0.0231
0.3126
0.6526
0.8455
0.9335
0.9712

0.0000
0.0231
0.3126
0.6526
0.8455
0.9335

0.5764
7.2380
8.4999
4.8227
2.1993
0.9427

0.5764
1.9553
1.4411
0.6889
1.4744
1.1860

25

Nmero
Observado

i
0
11
5
3
4
2
25

24.2789

F(Si)

F(Ii)

7.3221

( i- i)2/ i

CALCULAR

NO PASA !!!

OK !!!

Nmero
Observado

F(Si)

F(Ii)

( i- i)2/ i

i
0
11
5
3
4
2

0.0743
0.3245
0.6142
0.8097
0.9126
0.9612

0.0025
0.0743
0.3245
0.6142
0.8097
0.9126

1.7967
6.2527
7.2429
4.8877
2.5737
1.2138

1.7967
3.6043
0.6945
0.7290
0.7905
0.5092

25

23.9675

8.1241

Nmero
Observado

F(Si)

F(Ii)

( i- i)2/ i

i
0
11
5
3
4
2

0.0210
0.3729
0.6696
0.8330
0.9279
0.9717

0.0000
0.0210
0.3729
0.6696
0.8330
0.9279

0.5238
8.7993
7.4180
4.0834
2.3731
1.0938

0.5238
0.5504
0.7882
0.2874
1.1153
0.7508

25

24.2913

NO PASA !!!

4.0160

NO PASA !!!

Gastos
(m3/s)

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

7430
7061
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796

Media =
Desv. Est.=

3904.7
1623.4

=
=

0.00059773
2997.96706

1 =
1 =
2 =

0.001200
2453.10
0.000707
5192.25
0.72

2 =
p=

Fo(xm)

NORMAL
F(xm)

0.9615
0.9231
0.8846
0.8462
0.8077
0.7692
0.7308
0.6923
0.6538
0.6154
0.5769
0.5385
0.5000
0.4615
0.4231
0.3846
0.3462
0.3077
0.2692
0.2308
0.1923
0.1538
0.1154
0.0769
0.0385

0.9739
0.9590
0.9506
0.9039
0.8765
0.8732
0.8211
0.6808
0.5768
0.5379
0.4607
0.4555
0.3576
0.3394
0.2646
0.2536
0.2221
0.2100
0.2027
0.2001
0.1845
0.1822
0.1600
0.1271
0.1262

0.0123
0.0359
0.0660
0.0577
0.0688
0.1040
0.0903
0.0116
0.0770
0.0775
0.1162
0.0830
0.1424
0.1221
0.1585
0.1311
0.1241
0.0976
0.0665
0.0307
0.0078
0.0283
0.0446
0.0501
0.0877

0.1585
OK!!

LOGNORMAL
F(xm)
D
0.0169
0.0169
0.0169
0.0169
0.0169
0.0169
0.0169
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168

0.9447
0.9062
0.8678
0.8293
0.7908
0.7524
0.7139
0.6755
0.6370
0.5985
0.5601
0.5216
0.4832
0.4447
0.4062
0.3678
0.3293
0.2909
0.2524
0.2139
0.1755
0.1370
0.0986
0.0601
0.0216

0.9447
NO!

La funcin con el menor valor de D es la funci

D = max [|F ( x i ) P X ( x i )|]

i=1

GAMMA
F(xm)

CALCULAR

GUMBEL
F(xm)
0.9317
0.9156
0.9075
0.8679
0.8469
0.8444
0.8061
0.7032
0.6213
0.5886
0.5195
0.5146
0.4166
0.3969
0.3107
0.2973
0.2578
0.2423
0.2327
0.2292
0.2086
0.2055
0.1753
0.1298
0.1286

0.0298
0.0075
0.0229
0.0217
0.0392
0.0752
0.0753
0.0109
0.0326
0.0268
0.0574
0.0239
0.0834
0.0647
0.1123
0.0873
0.0884
0.0654
0.0366
0.0015
0.0163
0.0516
0.0599
0.0529
0.0901

DOBLEGUMBEL
F(xm)
D
0.9455
0.9307
0.9231
0.8862
0.8667
0.8645
0.8298
0.7419
0.6754
0.6487
0.5892
0.5848
0.4867
0.4643
0.3540
0.3350
0.2764
0.2525
0.2376
0.2323
0.1998
0.1949
0.1478
0.0815
0.0798

0.1123
OK!!

alor de D es la funcin preferible, en este caso es la DOBLE GUMBEL

0.0160
0.0076
0.0385
0.0400
0.0590
0.0952
0.0990
0.0496
0.0216
0.0333
0.0123
0.0464
0.0133
0.0028
0.0691
0.0497
0.0698
0.0552
0.0316
0.0015
0.0075
0.0411
0.0324
0.0046
0.0414

0.0990
OK!!

DN =

1. 36
=
N

DN =

1. 36
=
N

0.272
5%

Tr (aos)
2
5
10
20
50
100
200
500
1000

F(x)
0.5
0.8
0.9
0.95
0.98
0.99
0.995
0.998
0.999

Normal-2

Gamma

Lognormal

Gumbel

Q (m /s)
3,885.94
5,421.21
6,224.29
6,887.24
7,633.09
8,130.21
8,585.10
9,136.30
9,522.91

Q (m /s)
3,682.44
5,328.71
6,314.30
7,196.05
8,264.72
9,023.55
9,751.51
9,751.51
10,677.66

Q (m /s)
3,682.44
5,328.71
6,314.30
7,196.05
8,264.72
9,023.55
9,751.51
10,677.66
11,356.71

Q (m3/s)
3,611.14
5,507.36
6,762.82
7,967.09
9,525.89
10,693.99
11,857.83
13,393.30
14,553.77

Clculo del error estn

Normal-2
Lognormal
Gama
Gumbel
DobleGumbel

Clculo del error cuadr

Normal-2
Lognormal
Gama
Gumbel
DobleGumbel

DobleGumbel
Q (m3/s)
3,276.00
5,270.00
6,485.00
7,561.00
8,900.00
9,909.00
10,900.00
12,210.00
13,200.00

culo del error estndar

561.81
469.74
459.79
438.26
435.18

culo del error cuadrtico mnimo

2694.36
2252.78
2205.05
2101.82
1946.19