Opening Bell

January 27, 2016

Index Movement (past one month)

8200

30000

8000

28000

7800

26000

7600
7400

BSE (RHS)
Sensex
Nifty

25-Jan

21-Jan

19-Jan

22000
15-Jan

13-Jan

11-Jan

7-Jan

7200

Key Developments
We expect Colgate Palmolive to report 4.8% YoY growth in net sales
to | 1035.8 crore and ~5.5% volume growth in toothpastes. We
estimate operating margins at 22.6% and YoY growth of 19.6% in
net profit to | 156.5 crore
We expect Power Grid's topline to grow 20.2% YoY while PAT is
expected to grow 16.7% YoY to | 1433.8 crore in Q3FY16. We
expect capitalisation of ~| 12,000 crore driven by commissioning of
phase-I of Biswanath Chariyali Agra HVDC project
HDFC Ltd is expected to have credit traction of 12% YoY to | 246345
crore led by the individual loan segment. Asset quality is expected
to remain under control. Reported NIM is expected to be steady
QoQ at ~4% while a spread of ~2.3% is expected to be maintained.
PAT growth of 8% YoY to | 1537 crore is estimated
For IDFC Bank, this is the first quarterly result post de-merger. IDFC
Banks loan book may moderate to | 46000 crore, with NII seen at
| 382 crore for the bank. With majority provisions taken care of
before de-merger, we believe provisions will remain lower. We
expect the bank to report PAT of | 193 crore

24000

.
5-Jan

US markets ended positive due to a significant rebound in the price

of crude oil and in reaction to the release of quarterly results from
several big companies as the earnings season picks up steam

Results: United Spirits, HDFC, Colgate, MPS,

IDFC, KPR, Godrej Consumer, Tata Coffee, HT
Media, Bharti Infratel, Kajaria, Graphite, Sagar

1-Jan

Markets Yesterday
Domestic markets ended in the green tracking firm Asian markets as
oil prices rose & Chinese shares began the week on a firm note amid
indications the Chinese government will hold Yuan steady for long

Todays Highlights

30-Dec

Market Outlook
Indian markets are likely to open higher on the back of positive global
cues. Key financial results of large cap companies and the outcome of
the US Federal Reserve meeting can impact market sentiments while
F&O expiry may lead to volatility in the market.

NSE (LHS)

Close Previous Chg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yr fwd)

24,486 24,436
0.2
-6.2
-6.2
15.3
7,422
7,277
2.0
-6.4
-6.4
15.1

Institutional Activity
FII (| cr)
DII (| cr)

CY13
112,221
-73,385

CY14 YTD CY15 Yesterday Last 5 Days

99,525
16,281
-91
-4,628
-30,570
66,249
308
5,261

World Indices Monthly performance

BSE
24,486
-5.2%
Germany
9,823
-8.4%

NSE
7,436
-5.4%
Dow Jones
16,167
-9.5%

U.K.
5,911
-5.5%
Nasdaq
4,568
-9.5%

Kospi
1,884
-6.0%
Nikkei
17,097
-11.0%

France
4,357
-6.6%
Shanghai
2,731
-24.2%

Nifty Heat Map

Cairn
India
ONGC
HDFC
Bank
TCS
IDEA
Power
Grid
Vedanta
Ltd
BPCL
Yes Bank
Tata
Motors

119.0
5.4%
219.7
1.6%

Tata Steel
HUL

1,041.2 Indusind
Bank
1.1%
2,304.7
0.4%
107.0
0.1%
133.0
-0.1%
64.4
-0.5%
877.9
-0.6%
677.5
-1.0%
332.6
-2.0%

Bajaj
Auto
Tech M.
NTPC
Hindalco
Tata
power
IDFC
United
Spirits

254.9
2.9%
783.3
1.5%
907.2
1.0%
2,327.3
0.4%
514.6
0.1%
138.0
-0.1%
72.0
-0.5%
61.4
-0.6%
41.3
-1.1%
2,700.0
-2.1%

Sun
Pharma

807.3

ICICI
Bank

236.1

Asian
Paints

878.6

ACC
RIL
Cipla
Bank of
Baroda
PNB
Lupin
L&T

2.3%
1.4%
1.0%
1,245.0
0.3%
1,004.0
0.0%
580.6
-0.2%
129.5
-0.5%
91.9
-0.7%
1,699.1
-1.3%
1,114.2
-2.5%

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Ambuja
Cement
HDFC Ltd
Dr Reddy
ITC
HCL Tech
Kotak
Bank
Wipro
Axis Bank
BHEL
Hero
Moto

197.0
2.0%
1,174.6
1.4%
2,903.3
0.7%
309.4
0.2%
838.7
-0.1%
681.0
-0.3%
547.1
-0.6%
420.9
-0.8%
145.3
-1.4%
2,525.2
-2.6%

Coal India
Ultratech
NMDC
Infosys

304.9
1.8%
2,750.5
1.4%
80.7
0.4%
1,137.7
0.1%

Grasim
Ind

3,444.8

Bharti
Airtel

297.5

Maruti
SBI
M&M
GAIL

-0.1%
-0.4%
4,081.4
-0.6%
183.0
-0.9%
1,178.3
-1.7%
356.7
-2.8%

Markets Today
Close Previous
Commodities
Gold (|/10 gm)
Silver (|/kg)
Crude ($/barrel)
Copper ($/tonne)
Currency
USD/INR
EUR/USD
USD/YEN
ADRs
HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank
Tata Motors
Infosys
Dr Reddys Labs

Change (%) MTD(%)

YTD(%)

26,373
34,227
31.3
NA

26,186
34,110
31.8
NA

0.7
0.3
-1.5
NA

5.5
3.8
-16.0
-3.4

5.5
3.8
-16.0
-3.4

67.84
1.09
118.17

67.63
1.09
118.42

0.3
-0.1
-0.2

-2.5
0.0
1.7

-2.5
0.0
1.7

56.5
7.1
25.2
17.5
43.0

55.5
6.9
24.5
17.8
42.0

1.7
2.0
3.0
-1.6
2.3

-8.2
NA
-15.3
5.7
-7.8

-9.9
NA
-16.9
6.3
-9.2

Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore)

Sectoral Index

10000
5000

18-Jan

19-Jan

20-Jan
BSE Cash

2,615
13,706

15000
3,498
17,412

21-Jan
22-Jan
NSE Cash

25-Jan

NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore)

400000.00
200000.00

18-Jan

19-Jan

0.00

20-Jan
21-Jan
NSE Derivative

365,028

4.00%
6.75%
5.75%
5.41%
-6.2bln $
21.35bln $
352.1bln $
7.00%
6.90%
31.12bln $
9.80%
10.60%
-34.2bln $
9.77bln $
5.20%
-11.09%
-1.99%
-1.42%

398,971

4.00%
6.75%
5.75%
5.61%
-8.2bln $
20.01bln $
350.37bln $
7.40%
7.30%
29.8bln $
-3.20%
-4.40%
-37.4bln $
9.78bln $
8.17%
-9.15%
-0.73%
-1.36%

3,007
18,082

N/A
N/A
N/A
Dec
Q3
Nov
2014
Q2
12M
Nov
Nov
Nov
Q3
Nov
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec

354,837

RBI Cash Reserve Ratio

RBI Repo Rate
RBI Reverse Repo Rate
CPI YY
Current Account Balance
Exports - USD
FX Reserves, USD Final
GDP Quarterly yy
GDP Annual
Imports - USD
Industrial Output yy
Manufacturing Output
Trade Deficit - RBI
Trade Deficit Govt - USD
WPI Food yy
WPI Fuel yy
WPI Inflation yy
WPI Manufacturing Inflation yy

20000
3,089
18,064

Prior Values

274,319

Latest

263,891

Period

3,063
16,295

Key Economic Indicator

311,891

KEY ECONOMICINDICATORS

3,192
1,838

Key Data Points

22-Jan

25-Jan

Sectoral Performance Monthly Returns (%)

Sector

Close

Previous

Change

% Change

Volume

Auto

16775.17

16891.43

-116.26

-0.688278

2190000

Banks

17662.39

17625.07

37.32 0.2117438

5827000

BSE Small Cap

11792.74

11901.39

-108.65 -0.9129186

66926000

Capital Goods

12431.39

12544.81

-113.42 -0.9041189

10401000

Consumer Durables

11918.74

11761.48

157.26 1.3370766

182000

8304.6

8368.14

-63.54 -0.7593085

1023000

FMCG
Healthcare

17870.57

18140.06

-269.49

-1.485607

1830000

IT

11396.98

11501.95

-104.97 -0.9126279

1254000

Metals

6766.95

6661.68

Mid Cap

10993.02

Oil & Gas

105.27

1.580232

5757000

11070.76

-77.74 -0.7022101

64406000

9051.59

9072.65

-21.06 -0.2321262

2705000

Power

1772.47

1779.59

-7.12 -0.4000922

13945000

PSU

6098.82

6095.64

3.18 0.0521684

10863000

Real Estate

1189.49

1183.61

5.88 0.4967853

7371000

Consumer
IT
Oil & Gas
Healthcare
FMCG
Mid Cap
Power
Banks
Auto
Metals
BSE Small
PSU
Real Estate
Capital Goods
-20.0

-0.7
-1.1
-4.3
-6.2
-7.1
-7.3
-7.9
-8.0
-8.1
-8.6
-8.8
-9.7
-10.7
-12.7
-15.0

-10.0
(%)

-5.0

Key News for Today

Company/
Industry
HCL Tech
(HCLT)

News

View

HCLT has acquired two firms in HCLT has announced the acquisition of two UK-based
the UK for 8 million
firms Point to Point (PPL) and Point to Point Products
(PPPL) in an all-cash deal. Both companies have a
common set of shareholders. PPL, incorporated in 1993,
offers desktop and application virtualisation services and
had FY15 revenues of 6.3 million while PPPL,
incorporated in 1998, had FY15 revenues of 2.2 million
primarily by selling licences of Google, Citrix, etc. HCLT
hopes these acquisitions could help take advantage of the
global shift to desktop virtualisation

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Impact

0.0

HCL Tech

HCL Tech has signed an IMS deal As part of the deal, HCLT will provide engineering
with Alstom
services and PC as-a-Service for 30,000 global users.
HCLT would also enable local end-user support services
for multiple geographies by setting up a multi-lingual
global service desk for Alstom in 11 languages including
50% French speaking users. The company would deliver
services through its three global delivery centers in
Poland, Brazil and India. The deal could help sustain
growth momentum in FY17E

NBCC

India
Trade
Promotion
The project has an estimated cost of | 2149 crore which
Organisation has awarded the would take NBCC's orderbook to ~| 34,450 crore
work of redevelopment of Pragati providing strong revenue visibility for next couple of years
Maidan involving construction of
integrated
exhibition
cum
convention centre to NBCC

Key developments (Continued)

Kajaria's sales volume is expected to grow 12.8% YoY to 16.5 MSM. Consequently, we expect the topline to grow
12.1% YoY to | 620.8 crore and EBITDA margin to expand 190 bps YoY to 17.3% due to falling natural gas prices.
Overall, the bottomline is expected to grow 16.4% YoY to | 53.1 crore due to better margin show
Public sector oil firms IOC, BPCL, HPCL and EIL will invest | 1.5 lakh crore in setting up India's biggest refinery on the
west coast. IOC will build a 60 million tonne a year oil refinery in Maharashtra along with BPCL, HPCL and EIL
India and France have signed an Inter-Governmental Agreement (IGA) on the sale of 36 French fighter jets, Rafale, but
were unable to sign the final deal due to some financial aspects, which are expected to be sorted out within a month
McLeod Russel reported muted numbers with net sales growing 6% YoY to | 501.6 crore. Tea production suffered
due to weather conditions & came in at 28.1 million kg (3.7% YoY). Employee cost was up by | 26.7 crore (up 19.1%
YoY) on the back of revised wages. Lower EBITDA & higher interest outgo led to 29.2% decline in PAT to | 57 crore
Vardhman Textiles in Q3FY16 reported flattish revenue growth of 0.5% YoY to | 1436.2 crore (I-direct estimate:
| 1378 crore). EBITDA increased 36.4% YoY to | 279.5 crore while EBITDA margins improved 510 bps YoY to 20%.
This was driven by lower raw material cost as a percentage of sales which was at 49.09% in Q3FY16 vs. 54.97% in
Q3FY15. Consequently, PAT grew 80% YoY to | 128 crore
Godrej Properties has entered the Noida real estate market through a development management agreement to
develop a residential group housing project within Lotus Greens Sports City in Sector 150, Noida
HDFC Bank's Q3FY16 earnings were in line with our estimates. However, asset quality pressure was slightly above
estimates. PAT grew 20.1% YoY to | 3357 crore led by healthy NII traction. GNPA ratio was at 0.97% vs. 0.91% QoQ.
Margins improved to 4.3% from 4.2% QoQ, led by strong traction in retail loans and CASA deposits
The board of directors of Apollo Energy Company Ltd, an Apollo Hospitals Group company, has approved the
divestment of 23.3% stake in Apollo Munich Health Insurance to its joint venture partner, Munich Re of Germany for
| 163.5 crore. The proposed transaction values Apollo Munich at | 703 crore. Apollo Hospital has ~10.23% in Apollo
Munich. Post completion of the transaction, Apollo Hospitals Groups holding in Apollo Munich shall come down from
74.4% to 51.1%. Correspondingly, Munich Res shareholding in Apollo Munich is expected to be 48.7%
Swaraj Engines (SEL) reported a muted performance in Q3FY16 primarily on the back of prior build of inventory at its
key customer i.e. M&M resulting in subdued topline and profitability in the quarter. Sales in Q3FY16 were at | 105.1
crore, EBITDA at | 12.8 crore (margins: 12.1%) with consequent PAT at | 8.4 crore
Somany's results were marginally below our estimates mainly on account of a slowdown in revenue growth.
Revenues grew 11.3% YoY to | 413.1 crore driven by volume growth of ~8.5% and realisation growth of ~2.6%. The
EBITDA margin expanded 112 bps YoY to 6.7% and was ahead of our estimate of 6.5%. Net profit grew 25.8% YoY to
| 13.9 crore and was marginally below our estimate of | 16.4 crore mainly on account of the topline miss

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Sensex Chart

Technical Outlook

We said, "Close above Tuesday's high could

confirm fall is over ..." The index opened 100
points gap-up but hit the day's high within 30
minutes. Later shaving off 217 points intraday, it settled just 50 points or 0.2% higher.
The sectors traded mixed. While capital
goods, banks lost 1%, metal and pharma
gained 1%. The A/D ratio ended positive, at
2:1.
The action formed a small Bear candle,
indicating the index' inability to close above
last Tuesday's high of 24563, after crossing it
initially. The higher high-low can maintain
positive bias if today's action does not weaken
and close below the candle's low. However,
strength & close above the candle is required
to continue the positive bias and test the
December 2015 lows.

Pivot Points

CNX Nifty Technical Picture

Index/Stocks
SENSEX
NIFTY
ACC
ADANI ENTER.
ADANI PORT
ADITYA BIRLA
AJANTA PHARMA
ALLAHABAD BANK
AMARA RAJA BATT.
AMBUJA CEMENT
AMTEK AUTO
ANDHRA BANK
APOLLO HOSP.ENT.
APOLLO TYRES
ARVIND
ASHOK LEYLAND
ASIAN PAINTS
AUROBINDO PHARMA

Close
24485.95
7436.15
1245.00
74.10
218.40
878.35
1217.80
52.90
838.45
196.95
38.45
52.55
1421.10
142.70
316.75
86.75
878.60

S1
24504.65
7442.15
1247.40
74.10
215.50
862.90
1217.40
51.90
833.75
196.80
38.35
51.95
1419.05
143.05
317.45
86.70
877.40

S2
24450.45
7425.65
1241.80
73.40
213.35
847.65
1213.45
51.10
824.05
195.35
38.05
51.30
1412.05
141.75
315.25
86.45
873.95

R1
24396.20
7409.20
1236.20
72.75
211.20
832.40
1209.50
50.35
814.40
193.90
37.70
50.60
1405.05
140.45
313.00
86.15
870.50

R2
24613.10
7475.15
1258.65
75.45
219.50
881.15
1225.25
53.10
853.15
199.70
39.00
52.80
1433.00
145.65
321.90
87.30
884.35

Trend
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
-ve
-ve
+ve
-ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
-ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve

818.95

819.90

816.00

812.05

827.75

+ve

Nifty Call Put Strike (No. of shares in lakh) Jan 2016

6900
7000
7100
7200
7300
7400
7500
7600
7700

0
4

16

21

15

14

18

10
14

7
7
25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

16
5.0

0.0
5.0
Put Call

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Short Term
Range Bound
0
7240
7600
7543
7985

Advances / Declines
Advances
1717
1055

BSE
NSE

Declines
940
507

Daily Technical Calls

1. Buy Hindustan Unilever above 785.00
2. Sell CESC below 431.00

*All recommendations are of Jan Future

See Momentum Pick for more details

Buy TISCO JAN Fut at 256.00-256.50
View: Bullish
Strategy: Buy Future
Target 1: 258 Target 2: 260
Stop Loss: 254.4
Market Lot: 2000
CMP : 254.2

11
13

Intraday
Up
7390
7420-7390
7470-7510
0
0

Intraday Derivative Strategy

Nifty
Trend
Trend Reversal
Support
Resistance
20 Days EMA
200 days EMA

Sell CANBAN JAN Fut at 181.00-181.50

View: Bearish
Strategy: Sell Future
Target 1: 179.5 Target 2: 177.2
Stop Loss: 183.1
Market Lot: 2000
CMP : 183.8

See Daily Derivatives for more details

Unchanged
163
77

Results/Events Calendar

11

Monday

US Labor Mkt Condt Index

0
0
0
0

18

01

26

Monday

January
Tuesday

09

Monday

20

January
Wednesday

Axis Bank
Gandhi Special Tubes
Ultratech Cement
KPIT, South Indian Bank
Gati

January
Tuesday

February
Tuesday

Amara Raja
Escorts
Grindwell Norton
Bayer Cropscience
Shree Cement, Navneet

February

January
Wednesday

27

January

Wednesday

United Spirits, HDFC Ltd

Colgate, MPS, IDFC, KPR
Godrej Cons,Tata Coffee
HT Media, Bharti Infratel
Kajaria, Graphite, Sagar,HEG

02

Monday

13

EC Industrial Prod WDA YoY

Karur Vyasa Bank
Everest Industries
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

February

GSK Consumer Healthcare

0
0
0
0

Tuesday

HCL Technologies
Greenply Industries
Reliance Industries Ltd
0
0

January

Tech Mahindra, TCI

Ajanta Pharma
Jindal Saw
Emmbi Industries
Aban Offshore

08

19

Monday

HDFC Bank, Somany

Kansai Nerolac
Vardhaman Textiles
Kitex, Swaraj Engines
Mcleod Russel, Kaya Ltd

January

India CPI YoY

India Industrial Prod YoY
Federal Bank
TCS, Indusind Bank
DCB Bank

January

TTK Prestige
Mindtree
Wipro, Asian Paints
Rallis India, Kotak Bank
0

25

12

January

03

February

Wednesday

Shree Cement, LMW

Bajaj Finance
Bajaj Finserv
IOCL, CCL Products
Mangalam Cement

February
Tuesday

10

February
Wednesday

Wonderla Holidays
ACC Cement
NHPC
0
0

Timken, Dr. Reddy's Labs

Ramco Cement
Britannia, Apollo Tyres
Motherson Sumi
CESC

Major Economic Events this Week

Date
27-Jan
29-Jan
26-Jan
26-Jan
27-Jan
27-Jan
28-Jan
28-Jan
28-Jan
28-Jan
28-Jan
29-Jan
29-Jan

Event
Eight Infrastructure Ind
Fiscal Deficit INR Crore
Markit US Services PMI
Markit US Comp PMI
New Home Sales
Industrial Profits YoY
FOMC (Lower Bound)
FOMC (Upper Bound)
Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Claims
GDP YoY
GDP Annualized QoQ
CPI Core YoY

Country
IN
IN
US
US
US
CH
US
US
US
US
UK
US
EC

14

15

January
Thursday

India Wholesale Prices YoY

US Initial Jobless Claims
US Continuing Claims
Infosys, Cyient
0

21

22

January

Raymonds,Interglobe Aviation
VST Ind, Reliance Cap
Biocon, Alembic Pharma
Exide, Hindustan Zinc
Essel Propack, Idea Cellular

28

29

January

04

05

Thursday

Bajaj Auto, Styrolution ABS

Hawkins Cooker
Gillete India, Trent Ltd
JK Lakshmi Cement
Tata Steel, Torrent Pharma

11

12

Thursday

Chennai Petro
0
0
0
0

Saturday

January
Saturday

Persisitent Systems Ltd

Unichem Labs
Siyaram Silk Mills
PC Jewellers
0

30

January
Friday

06

Friday

Saturday

February
Saturday

JK Cement
P&G Hygiene and Healthcare
Jet Airways
Kewal Kiran Clothing
VA Tech Wabag

13

February
Friday

Nestle India, M&M

0
0
0
0

January

EPC Industries, EIH

IDFC Holding
Relaxo Footwear
0
0

February

Tata Power, Cox & Kings

NRB Bearings
Lupin, Cadila
PTC India
0

February

23

Friday

V-Guard Industries, Irb Infra

Taj GVK, eClerx, JSW Steel
CARE, Indoco Remedies
Shoppers Stop, Wabco
Yes Bank, Infoedge, NTPC

February

January

LIC Housing Finance

0
0
0
0

January

Cairn India
ITC
Ashoka Buildcon
DB Corp
0

Thursday

Dabur, Mahindra Lifespace

Jyothy Laboratories
Emami, Vedanta, Alok
Titan, Firstsource
Glenmark, Airtel, Maruti

Friday

Indian Hotels, TV18

ZEE Entertainment
Pipavav Defence
Hindustan Unilever
NIIT Tech, Oberoi Realty

Thursday

16

January

February
Saturday

0
0
0
0
0

Q3FY16E Result Preview

Period
Dec
Dec
Jan P
Jan P
Dec
Dec
27-Jan
27-Jan
23-Jan
16-Jan
4Q A
4Q A
Jan A

Expected
------0.3%
0.5%
------

Previous
-1.3%
72277.0
54.3
54.0
490k
-1.4%
0.3%
0.5%
--2.1%
2.0%
--

Company
United Spirits
HDFC
Colgate
HT Media
Bharti Infratel
Kajaria Ceramics

Chg(%)
EBITDA
YoY
QoQ Q3FY16E
-3.8
3.9
314.1
7.8
8.1 2,235.4
4.8
0.4
236.2
11.6
12.3
103.7
3.5
0.5 1,357.1
12.1
2.2
107.4

Revenue = NII; EBITDA = PPP for Banks and NBFC

Recent Releases
Date

Report

25 Jan 2016

Result Update Idea Cellular

25 Jan 2016

Result Update Gati

25 Jan 2016

Result Services ITC

22 Jan 2016

Result Update KPIT Technologies

22 Jan 2016

Result Update Essel Propack

0063

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Revenue
Q3FY16E
2,230.0
2,078.9
1,035.8
675.8
3,053.1
620.8

Chg(%)
Chg(%)
PAT
YoY
QoQ Q3FY16E
YoY
QoQ
34.8
-1.1
143.8 82.4
-84.5
6.0
-5.9 1,537.4
8
-4.2
21.4
-7.3
156.5 19.6
-0.2
20.3
65.5
40.3 -37.1
10.5
6.6
4.3
554.8
9.5
-4.2
26.2
-7.8
53.1 16.4
-8.2

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Pankaj Pandey

Head Research
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

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