Transportation Systems Analysis

Modeling
CEE 3604
Introduction to Transportation

Engineering

Dr. A.A. Trani

Virginia Tech

November 2011!
!

Organization!
Discuss all four steps in transportation systems
planning and modeling"
Discuss urban applications of the transportation
systems modeling approach"
If you want to know more about this topic take a
senior class called: Transportation Planning (CEE
4624)"

2!

Why do We Need a Transportation

Systems Planning and Modeling?!
Because transportation engineers plan, design and
construct facilities"
Because predicting how people travel is more
difficult than predicting a nuclear reaction at the
molecular level (true statement from Los Alamos
Physicists)"
Keeping up with demand is difficult in constrained
budget environments"
"

3!

The Basic Idea and Few Steps!

Trip Generation!
Trip Distribution!

Predicts trips from

zone to zone!

Distributes trips
between zones!

Mode Split/Choice!

Splits trips among

various modes of
travel!

Traffic Assignment!

Assigns trips among

various transport
networks!
4!

Reston!
Population = 60,000"
Household Income = $55,000"
Car Ownership = 2.1 (per house)!

Transportation
Planning Idea!
Washington DC!
Population = 230,000"
Household Income = $45,000"
Car Ownership = 1.3 (per house)!

Road Network

!
Fairfax!
Population = 120,000"
Household Income = $70,000"
Car Ownership = 2.3 (per house)!

Centroids!
5!

Reston!
Interzone trips = 230,000 person-trips"
Intrazone trips = 70,000 person-trips!

How Many Trips?!

Washington DC!
Interzone trips = 400,000 person-trips"
Intrazone trips = 130,000 person-trips"

Road Network

!
Fairfax!
Interzone trips = 360,000 person-trips"
Intrazone trips = 100,000 person-trips"
6!

Basic Definitions!
Intrazone trips trips that stay within the zone where
the person making the trips starts its journey"
A trip to a shopping center"
A trip to drop children to school"

Interzone trips trips that extend beyond the zone

where the person starts its journey"
Commuting trip to work "
Commuting trip to airport, train station to make a longdistance trip"

The definition of a zone in our context is a subarea of

interest in our study with similar socio-economic
characteristics or perhaps physical boundaries"
7!

What Drives the Number of Trips?!

Number of persons per household"

Number of cars per household"
Income levels"
Road infrastructure density (lane-km or road per
square kilometer)"
Many others"

8!

Back to General Transportation

Planning Method!

Trip Generation!
Trip Distribution!
Mode Split/Choice!
Traffic Assignment!
9!

Trip Generation!
Use of cross classification tables"
Provides a snapshot of potential trips per household"
Obtained through surveys"
Socio-economic parameters dictate trips"
Persons per household
1
2
3
4 or more

Vehicles per household

0
1
1.02
1.9
2.12
3.25
2.15
3.75
3.96
5.02

2 or more
2.1
3.7
3.9
6.54

Trip Rate Table for Urban Areas!

(units are trips per household per day)!
10!

Sample Surveys Done in the US!

National Household Travel Survey (NHTS)"

American Travel Survey (ATS) "

http://nhts.ornl.gov/!

http://www.bts.gov/publications/1995_american_travel_survey/!

11!

Trip Generation Output!

A trip matrix of trip Attractions (Aj) and trip
Productions (Pi)!
The matrix predicts all trips produced and attracted
to and from every zone"
Trip attractions depend on variables like
employment, retail floor space, etc."
Zone
Reston
Fairfax
DC

Productions
230000
360000
400000

Attractions
200000
200000
590000

Attraction and Production Table for Sample Area!

(units are trip-persons per day)!
12!

Techniques to Perform Trip

Generation Models!
Cross classification trip rate tables for trip productions"

"

Persons per household

1
2
3
4 or more

Vehicles per household

0
1
1.02
1.9
2.12
3.25
2.15
3.75
3.96
5.02

2 or more
2.1
3.7
3.9
6.54

Regression analysis for trip attractions"

"Trip attractions = A + B * (employment)!
"where: A and B are regressions constants to be
obtained using statistical regression techniques such
as the least-squares method"
13!

Back to General Transportation

Planning Method!

Trip Generation!
Trip Distribution!
Mode Split/Choice!
Traffic Assignment!
14!

Trip Distribution!
Answers the question:"
Where do the trips generated go?"
Reston!

Distance = 20 km

Distance = 10 km

!
Washington DC"

Fairfax"
15!

Trip Distribution!
Methods"
Gravity Model (just like the attraction between planets!)"
Growth factor models (Fratar Models)"

Distance = 20 km

Reston!
Productions = 230,000!
Attractions = 200,000 !

Distance = 10 km

Fairfax!

Washington DC!

Productions = 360,000!
Attractions = 200,000!

Productions = 400,000!
Attractions = 590,000!

"

16!

Gravity Model Formulation!

where!
Pi = Productions at zone I!
Aj = Attractions at zone j!
Fij = Impedance of travel between I
and j

Reston!
Productions = 230,000!
Attractions = 200,000 !

Distance = 10 km

Distance = 20 km

Fairfax!

Washington DC!

Productions = 360,000!
Attractions = 200,000!

Productions = 400,000!
Attractions = 590,000!

"

17!

What is the Impedance (Fij)?!

A common term to state that there is resistance to
travel between two zones"
The resistance is proportional to the travel time
between the zones (time ij)"

Fij = Cij exp(-alpha) or!

Cij = travel time!

Reston!

Distance = 20 km!
Travel time = 1 hour

Distance = 10 km!
Travel time = 30 minutes

!
Washington DC!
18!

Output of Trip Distribution!

A trip interchange matrix (Tij)"
How many trips go from zone I to zone j"

Origin Zone
Reston
Fairfax
DC

Reston
T reston-reston
T fairfax-reston
T dc-reston

Destination Zone
Fairfax
T reston-fairfax
T fairfax-fairfax
T dc-fairfax

DC
T reston-dc
T fairfax-dc
T dc-dc

19!

Back to General Transportation

Planning Method!

Trip Generation!
Trip Distribution!
Mode Split/Choice!
Traffic Assignment!
20!

Trip Mode Split!

Estimates the number of trips made taking a specific
mode of transportation"
For the sample area, travelers will have choices of
mode:"
Bus"
Auto"
Rapid transit"
Walk"
Bicycle"

21!

Mode Split or Mode Choice!

Out-of-pocket costs (Cost ij via mode k) is important"
Travel time (time ij via mode k) is important"

How many trips by auto?!

How many by transit?!
Reston!
Travel time (transit) = 1 hour!
Travel cost (transit) = $1.50!
!
Travel time (auto) = 45 minutes!
Travel cost (auto) = $5.00 (includes parking)!

Washington DC!
22!

Mode Split Formulation!

Um = Utility of travel using mode m

Zmj = travel characteristics (time and cost)

Bm = Mode specific constant!
aj = Model parameter (from calibration)!
e

= stochastic term with zero mean!

23!

Calculating Probabilities of
Travel by a given Mode (Logit Model)!
W. McFadden (Nobel Price winner 30 years ago)
developed a fundamental model called Logit Model
to predict peoples choice in economic terms"
Basis for todays logit models used in
transportation"

Pm =

Um

Um

Pm = probability that mode!

m is selected!
M = index over all modes !
included in the choice set!

24!

Example of Mode Split Equation!

A mode split has been calibrated using the maximum likelihood
technique (an advanced statistical method)"
The following equation has been obtained as follows:"
"
"
"

U m = m 0.25C 0.02T

where: C is the out-of-pocket cost ($), T is the travel time (minutes)

and the values of the mode specific constants (betas) are:"
"

Transit = 0.30!
Auto = 2.2!
25!

Back to the Original Problem!

How many trips by auto?!

How many by transit?!
Reston!
Travel time (transit) = 1 hour!
Travel cost (transit) = $1.50!
!
Travel time (auto) = 45 minutes!
Travel cost (auto) = $5.0 (includes parking)!

Washington DC!
26!

Calculation of Utilities (Um)!

u = m 0.25C 0.02T
Uauto = 2.2 - 0.25 (5) - 0.02 (45) = 0.05!
Utransit = 0.3 - 0.25 (1.5) - 0.02 (60) = -1.275!

Reston!
Travel time (transit) = 60 minutes!
Travel cost (transit) = $1.50!
!
Travel time (auto) = 45 minutes!
Travel cost (auto) = $5.00 (includes parking)!

Washington DC!
27!

Estimate Probabilities of
Travel by Mode m!
Uauto = 2.2 - 0.25 (5) - 0.02 (45) = 0.05!
Utransit = 0.3 - 0.25 (1.5) - 0.02 (60) = -1.275!

eU auto
e 0.05
Pauto =
= 0.05 1.275 = 0.79
Um
e e + e
m

Ptransit

eU transit
e1.275
=
= 0.05 1.275 = 0.21
Um
e e + e
m
28!

Interpretation of Results!
The probability that a traveler from Reston to DC
uses auto is 79%"
The probability that a traveler from Reston to DC
uses transit is 21%"

Why is this important?"

Because as a transportation engineer you have to
plan how many lanes of highway should you
provide between Reston and DC"
You also need to figure out how many transit
vehicles will be needed and how often they
should be scheduled"
29!

Sensitivity of Logit Model Results!

30!

Interpretation of Results!
If the auto cost is $1.00 the model predicts a
ridership of 9% for the bus (compared to 21%)"
This is a bargain in using the auto mode"
the bus captures a smaller fraction of the riders"

If the auto cost is $20.00 the model predicts a

ridership of 9% for the auto mode"
This provides incentives for riders to take the bus"
The cost of auto is quite high and forces many
decision makers to walk away from auto mode"

31!

Back to General Transportation

Planning Method!

Trip Generation!
Trip Distribution!
Mode Split/Choice!
Traffic Assignment!
32!

Traffic Assignment (Final Step in

Transportation Systems Planning)!
Reston!

What routes are selected!

by travelers?!

Route 1

Route 3

Route 2

Washington DC!
Link ij

Road Network

Fairfax!
33!

How do Travelers select Routes?!

Consideration of travel time and congestion in
transportation links"
Travelers tend to take routes that minimize travel
time"
After a long period of time traveling a network, a
traveler selects routes that reach equilibrium for that
traveler"
For example, if two routes are feasible to take me from
an origin (say Reston) to a destination (say DC), I will
select these routes in a way that gains in travel time
are not possible once we consider other network users"
34!

Travel Time vs Demand!

Route 1

Travel Time!

Route 2
Route 1

Route 2

t!

Total

Demand!

V1!
Traffic Volume!

V2!

VT!
35!

Calculation of Travel Times!

Use any of the known traffic flow models"
For example:"
Greenshields model"

Speed!
Flow!
Travel Time!

uf
u = uf k
kk
uf 2
q = uf k k
kk
t=

d
u
36!

Other Ways to Find Travel Times

on Highway Links!
Use of empirical data is useful in finding travel times
if the model is suspected not follow Greenshield or
Greenberg models"

37!

Other Ways to Find Travel Times!

Use of empirical data is useful in finding travel times
if the model is suspected not to follow Greenshield or
Greenberg models "

38!

Computational Example
(Two-Zone Network)!
qf"

Reston"

q a"

Freeway"
(2 lanes per side)"

6000 person-trips/hr"

Arterial"
Road (3 lanes per side)"

Washington DC"
Find qa and qf (volumes on arterial and freeway,
respectively) so that travel times are the same"
39!

Sample Problem (Traffic Assignment)!

Two zones are linked by a simple highway network
with network characteristics as shown:"
Freeway"
vf_freeway = 110;

% free flow speed in kilometers per hour"

kj_freeway = 75;

% jamming density in vehicles per km-lane"

d_freeway = 30;

% length of freeway (km)"

N_freeway = 2;

% number of lanes per side"

Arterial road"
vf_arterial = 90;

% free flow speed in kilometers per hour"

kj_arterial = 80;

% jamminf density in vehicles per km-lane"

d_arterial = 33;
N_arterial = 3;

% length of arterial (km)"

% number of lanes on arterial road"

40!

Problem!
Assign traffic so that volumes on the freeway and the
arterial road reach equilibrium assignment "
Equilibrium means: if a traveler switches from a link
to another one, there is no gain in travel time"
In other words, assign volumes so that travel times
on the freeway and the arterial are the same"

41!

Solution: Use Traffic Assignment

Simulator (traffic_assignment.m)!
Simple Matlab script to ease computations"
Uses Greenshields traffic flow model to estimate
travel time"
Inputs:"
Trips between zones (person trips)"
Vehicle occupancy (passengers per vehicle)"

Outputs: "
Freeway Speed (km/hr)"
Freeway Travel Time (minutes)"
Freeway Volume per lane (veh/hr)"
Total Freeway Volume(veh/hr)"
Freeway Capacity (veh/hr)"
Freeway Number of Lanes (lanes)"
42!

Running traffic_assignment.m!
The program requires that you enter the percent of
the trips to be assigned to each link"
Try the following parameters: 6000 person-trips,
vehicle occupancy = 1.2 persons/veh and 60% of
trips assigned to the freeway"
Freeway Speed (km/hr) 83.7228"
Freeway Travel Time (minutes) 21.4995"
Freeway Volume per lane (veh/hr) 1500"
Total Freeway Volume(veh/hr) 3000"
Freeway Capacity (veh/hr) 4125 "

"
Arterial Speed (km/hr) 80.7071"

Note:"
travel times"
are not in "
equilibrium"

Arterial Travel Time (minutes) 24.5331"

Arterial Volume per lane (veh/hr) 666.6667"
Total Arterial Volume(veh/hr) 2000"
Arterial Capacity (veh/hr) 5400"

43!

Running traffic_assignment.m!
Assign more traffic to the freeway to balance the
travel times"
Try the following parameters: 6000 person-trips,
vehicle occupancy = 1.2 persons/veh and 70.7% of
trips assigned to the freeway"
Freeway Speed (km/hr) 75.8006"
Freeway Travel Time (minutes) 23.7465"
Freeway Volume per lane (veh/hr) 1767.5"
Total Freeway Volume(veh/hr) 3535"
Freeway Capacity (veh/hr) 4125

"

"
Arterial Speed (km/hr) 83.4139"
Arterial Travel Time (minutes) 23.7371"
Arterial Volume per lane (veh/hr) 488.3333"
Total Arterial Volume(veh/hr) 1465"
Arterial Capacity (veh/hr) 5400"

Note:"
travel times"
are in "
equilibrium"

System is"
In user-equilibrium"
44!

Applications to Intercity Travel!

Intercity travelers are faced with similar decisions as
urban travelers"
Mode choices are based on attributes of the mode:"
Travel time"
Travel cost"
Route convenience"
Trip purpose, etc."

Describe the study done for NASA in the period

2001-2006"
Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS)"
45!

On-demand (Air Taxi) Air Transportation

Assumptions!

Assumptions:"
SATS aircraft is very light jet vehicle"
High mission reliability"
High perceived level of safety"
350 knots cruise speed"
All-weather (pressurized)"

SATS aircraft cost (VT Eclipse 500 PW610F model)"

Baseline cost $1.50 per seat-mile"
60% load factor"
2 professional pilots"

SATS airport set (3,364 public airports, paved runways > 3kft, all
weather equipped)"
SATS access and egress times driven by airport set selected"

46!

Assumptions (continuation)!
Commercial airline service network (year 2000 419 airports in the continental U.S.)"
Commercial air fares based on 2000 Department
of Transportation data (12 million fares)"
No constraints in pilot production and aircraft
production"
No constraints in ATC/ATM capacity"

47!

Mode Choice (Modal Split)!

Auto

Air Taxi (SATS)

Commercial Aviation

Route1

Route2... Route n

Include Airport Choice

48!

Multi-route Mode Split/Choice Model!

Utility function = Um = Bm +

Pm =

Um

eU m

sum( aj z

mj

+ e)

"

Probability of selecting !
mode m!

49!

Auto Travel Time Estimation!

50!

Airport-to-Airport Travel Times!

450 commercial airports!

2001 Official Airline Guide

!
51!

Airline Network Structure!

52!

Detailed Trip Analysis!

53!

Air Taxi (SATS) Travel Time Map!

54!

Cost of Service (Air Modes)!

2.5
Business Class
Notional SATS Jet

Fare ($/seat-mile)

1.5

0.5

0
0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

One-way Distance (statute miles)

Airline fares from 12 million fares (DB1B DOT data)!

SATS cost (Virginia Tech projections)

55!

Traffic Assignment (Which Route?)!

Aircraft vs auto trajectories!
Airway Route!

I-95 Route!

A1-A Route!
56!

Market Share Screen!

57!

Market Share By Segment!

SATS Very Light Jet!

$1.50 per seat-mile

58!

SATS Trip Demand in NE Corridor

(Using 2000 Census Socio-Economic Data)!

SATS Very Light Jet!

$1.50 per seat-mile!
3,416 airports

59!

SATS Demand at Airports

(Using 2000 Census Socio-Economic Data)!

SATS Very Light Jet!

$3.50 per seat-mile!
3,416 airports

60!

Fastest Travel Times by Mode

(from Grafton Co., NH)!
SATS Single-Engine Aircraft!
200 knots cruise speed!
700 mile range

61!

Model Output!
Low Income (<$25K)!

Automobile"

Medium Income ($25-50K)!

Medium Income ($50-100K)!

Market Share (%)!

High Income (> $100K)!

Airline"

SATS"
$1.50/seat-mile"
Distance (statute miles)!

62!

National-level Demand Statistics

by Distance (SATS @ $1.50 per seat-mile)!

Person-trips

Auto Mode

Airline Mode

SATS Mode

One-way Distance (statute miles)

63!

Market Share of SATS

(Business Trips Only)!
7,000,000

2.7% Market Share

6,000,000

SATS Person-Trips

5,000,000

4,000,000

3364 Airports

3,000,000

1.0% Market Share

724 Airports

2,000,000

0.5% Market Share

1,000,000

0
1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

Cost ($/seat-mile)

Annual Intercity Business Trips in the U.S. (all modes) = 225 million

64!

Nation-wide Mobility (Hours Saved)!

60,000,000

(Total Hours Traveled Without SATS

Total Hours Traveled With SATS)

Hours Saved Using SATS

50,000,000

40,000,000

3364 Airports
724 Airports

30,000,000

20,000,000

10,000,000

0
1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

Cost ($/seat-mile)

65!

Fuel Used by SATS!

Fuel Used by SATS Operations (kg)

Fuel Used by Airlines = 44,000,000,000 kg.

1,000,000,000
900,000,000
800,000,000
700,000,000
600,000,000
3364 Airports
724 Airports

500,000,000
400,000,000
300,000,000
200,000,000
100,000,000
0
1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

Cost ($/seat-mile)
66!

Increased Adoption of SATS With

Increased Household Income!

67!

Frequency Plot of Total Travel

Time Savings!
SATS Cost = $1.50 per seat-mile!
3091 counties in the US!

1800
1611

1400
1200
1000
800
528

400

253

260

200

100

5,
00
0

3,
00
0

2,
00
0

12

1,
00
0

222
41

20

14

23

10
,0
00
20
,0
00
30
,0
00
40
,0
00
50
,0
00
10
0,
00
0
15
0,
00
0
20
0,
00
0
25
0,
00
0

600

Frequency (No. of Counties)

1600

Total Hours Saved per Year

68!

Average Speed Gains (by Trip)!

SATS Cost = $1.50 per seat-mile!

Average Speed Gains per Trip (Miles per Hour)!

!
0.5 to 0.6!
0.0 to 0.1

!
1.5 to 1.7!

0.9 to 1.0

!
4.0 to 5.0!

2.0 to 3.0

69!

Total Travel Time Savings!

SATS Very Light Jet!

$1.50 per seat-mile

70!

Per Capita Travel Time Savings!

SATS Very Light Jet!

$1.50 per seat-mile

71!