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Cultura Documentos
Datos registrados
Q [m3/s]
Ao
1954
2230
1955
3220
1956
2246
1957
1804
1958
2737
1959
2070
1960
3682
1961
4240
1962
2367
1963
7061
1964
2489
1965
2350
1966
3706
1967
2675
1968
6267
1969
5971
1970
4744
1971
6000
1972
4060
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
Promedio
Desv
6900
5565
3130
2414
1796
7430
3886.16
1825.91
8
0.9761
1/Tr
Probabilidad de excedencia
0.0167
1- P (x>= xi) =
0.9833
1-0.017
Probabilidad de ocurrencia
-0.041
2.1273
Excedencia_normal
Al graficar tenemos:
P = m / (N+1)
P (x >= xi)
0.038
0.077
0.115
0.154
0.192
0.231
0.269
0.308
0.346
0.385
0.423
0.462
0.500
0.538
0.577
0.615
0.654
0.692
0.731
0.769
0.808
0 846
0.846
0.885
0.923
0.962
Q, caudal, [mcs]
m
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
14.00
15.00
16.00
17.00
18.00
19.00
20.00
21.00
22 00
22.00
23.00
24.00
25.00
Distribucin
normal
T
26.00
13.00
8.67
6.50
5.20
4.33
3.71
3.25
2.89
2.60
2.36
2.17
2.00
1.86
1.73
1.63
1.53
1.44
1.37
1.30
1.24
1 18
1.18
1.13
1.08
1.04
Q
7430
7061
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796
P(x>xi)
0.026
0.041
0.049
0.096
0.123
0.127
0.179
0.319
0.423
0.462
0.539
0.545
0.642
0.661
0.735
0.746
0.778
0.790
0.797
0.800
0.815
0 818
0.818
0.840
0.873
0.874
T
38.3
24.4
20.2
10.4
8.1
7.9
5.6
3.1
2.4
2.2
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.2
12
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
8000
7000
6000
5000
Datos
4000
3000
Dist.
Normal
2000
1000
0
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
T, perodo de retorno, [aos]
Excedencia_normal
T=
2
5
P=
0.5
0.2
p=
0.500
0.200
w=
1.177
1.794
z=
0.000
0.841
Datos estadsticos de la serie de datos para la estacin
T de retorno
Eje X
2
5
Promedio
3886.16
3886.16
Desviacin
1825.907
1825.907
10
0.1
0.100
2.146
1.282
25
0.04
0.040
2.537
1.751
50
0.02
0.020
2.797
2.054
100
0.01
0.010
3.035
2.327
10
3886.16
1825.907
25
3886.16
1825.907
50
3886.16
1825.907
100
3886.16
1825.907
Ao
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
-0.1643
0.2598
0.6128
1.1164
1.5209
1.9420
3586.213
4360.537
5005.145
5924.586
6663.101
7432.126
T
26.00
13.00
8.67
6.50
5.20
4.33
3.71
3.25
2 89
2.89
2.60
2.36
2.17
2.00
1.86
1.73
1.63
1.53
1.44
1.37
1.30
1.24
1.18
1.13
1.08
1.04
Q
7430
7061
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796
Q
2230
3220
2246
1804
2737
2070
3682
4240
2367
7061
2489
2350
3706
2675
6267
5971
4744
6000
4060
6900
5565
3130
2414
1796
7430
m
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9 00
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
14.00
15.00
16.00
17.00
18.00
19.00
20.00
21.00
22.00
23.00
24.00
25.00
P (x >= xi)
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.15
0.19
0.23
0.27
0.31
0 35
0.35
0.38
0.42
0.46
0.50
0.54
0.58
0.62
0.65
0.69
0.73
0.77
0.81
0.85
0.88
0.92
0.96
Gumbel
Q, [mcs]
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
Datos
Gumbel
3000
2000
1000
0
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
T=
2
5
P=
0.5
0.2
p=
0.500
0.200
w=
1.177
1.794
z=
0.000
0.841
Datos estadsticos de la serie de datos para la estacin
T de retorno
Eje X
2
5
Promedio
3.54
3.54
Desviacin
0.200
0.200
Cs
0.251
0.251
k = Cs/6 =
KT =
0.042
-0.0418
0.042
0.8266
10
3439.285
Ao
10
0.1
0.100
2.146
1.282
25
0.04
0.040
2.537
1.751
50
0.02
0.020
2.797
2.054
100
0.01
0.010
3.035
2.327
10
3.54
0.200
0.251
25
3.54
0.200
0.251
50
3.54
0.200
0.251
100
3.54
0.200
0.251
0.042
1.3053
0.042
1.8345
0.042
2.1867
0.042
2.5106
3.710
3.806
3.912
3.982
4.047
5129.640
6394.205
8157.722
9593.598
11136.021
Duracin
Q
2230
3220
2246
1804
2737
2070
3682
4240
2367
7061
2489
2350
3706
2675
6267
5971
4744
6000
4060
6900
5565
3130
2414
1796
7430
Q, Caudal, [mcs]
Ao
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
Log (Q)
3.348
3.508
3.351
3.256
3.437
3.316
3.566
3.627
3 627
3.374
3.849
3.396
3.371
3.569
3.427
3.797
3.776
3.676
3.778
3.609
3.839
3.745
3.496
3.383
3.254
3.871
m
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
P (x >= xi)
0.038
0.077
0.115
0.154
0.192
0.231
0.269
0.308
0 308
0.346
0.385
0.423
0.462
0.500
0.538
0.577
0.615
0.654
0.692
0.731
0.769
0.808
0.846
0.885
0.923
0.962
T
26.000
13.000
8.667
6.500
5.200
4.333
3.714
3.250
3 250
2.889
2.600
2.364
2.167
2.000
1.857
1.733
1.625
1.529
1.444
1.368
1.300
1.238
1.182
1.130
1.083
1.040
Q
7430
7061
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796
12000
10000
8000
Log Pearson
6000
Datos
4000
2000
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Exc_Fuller
Sea
i
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
T
25.00
12.50
8.33
6.25
5.00
4.17
3.57
3.13
2.78
2.50
2.27
2.08
1.92
1.79
1.67
1.56
1.47
1.39
1.32
1.25
1.19
1.14
1.09
1 04
1.04
1.00
Q med
Entonces:
Qj / Qmed = a + b log T
Qj = Qmed ( a + b log T)
Evaluando tenemos:
b= pendiente =
a = interseccin =
Q
zi = Qi/ Qmed
7430
1.9119
7061
1.8170
6900
1.7755
6267
1.6126
6000
1.5439
5971
1.5365
5565
1.4320
4744
1.2207
4240
1.0911
4060
1.0447
3706
0.9536
3682
0.9475
3220
0.8286
3130
0.8054
2737
0.7043
2675
0.6883
2489
0.6405
2414
0.6212
2367
0.6091
2350
0.6047
2246
0.5779
2230
0.5738
2070
0.5327
0 4642
1804
0.4642
1796
0.4622
3886.16
Qi
Qj = Qi /j
rj = Qj / Qmed
log T
7430
14491
21391
27658
33658
39629
45194
49938
54178
58238
61944
65626
68846
71976
74713
77388
79877
82291
84658
87008
89254
91484
93554
95358
97154
7430
7246
7130
6915
6732
6605
6456
6242
6020
5824
5631
5469
5296
5141
4981
4837
4699
4572
4456
4350
4250
4158
4068
3973
3886
1.9119
1.8644
1.8348
1.7793
1.7322
1.6996
1.6614
1.6063
1.5490
1.4986
1.4491
1.4073
1.3627
1.3229
1.2817
1.2446
1.2091
1.1764
1.1466
1.1195
1.0937
1.0700
1.0467
1 0224
1.0224
1.0000
1.3979
1.0969
0.9208
0.7959
0.6990
0.6198
0.5528
0.4949
0.4437
0.3979
0.3565
0.3188
0.2840
0.2518
0.2218
0.1938
0.1675
0.1427
0.1192
0.0969
0.0757
0.0555
0.0362
0 0177
0.0177
0.0000
0.7659
1.1047
3.0000
2.5000
Qj/Qmed
2.0000
Datos
1.5000
Fuller
1.0000
0.5000
0.0000
1.00
10.00
100.00
T, Perodo de retorno, [aos]
Exc_Fuller