320

The Chronospace

THE

CHRONOSPACE

A proposed

methodology

for futures

studies
Kimon

Valaskakis

In a recent article in F~tures,~ eclectics was presented as the

first part of a methodology of futures studies. In this second
article, time is introduced as a variable and expressed in a diagram
entitled the chronospace. Time is treated both as a subjective
perception and as a vehicle for causality. The passage of time is
perceived as a scenario, the content of which must vary with
the scenario writer and the medium used. The perceived symmetry between historical and futures studies leads the author to
propose the construction of a new science of time-chronosophy
-to use with eclectics as an operational methodology for futures
studies.
IN an article published in the December issue of Futures, the first instalment
of a two-part paper on the methodology of futures studies was presented.
It focused on the utilisation of a proposed interdisciplinary
method called
eclectics, or the theory of choice, to explain human behaviour. This understanding of the base (the series of present facts that must be fully understood
before forecasting is attempted)
was static and had no time dimension. In
introducing the time dimension we will now attempt to show that there is a
symmetry between the historical and futurological
approaches,
which is
eloquently expressed, for instance, in the opposition in the French language
between retrospective (history) and prospective (futures studies). This article will
present evidence to support the view that a good futurist must be a good
historian and vice versa, and that successful forecasting will involve carrying
the present both backwards and forwards.
Since our primary concern here is with the notion of time, the discussion
will be divided in three parts. In the first, the subjectivity of the concept of time,
a truly individual and culturally influenced dimension, will be emphasised.
Kimon Valaskakis is with the Department of Economics, University of Montreal. He is also the
Director of Gamma, the Montreal/McGill Intenmivenity Futures Studies Group. The first part of
this study, The eclectics paradigm, appeared in Futures in December 1975.

FUTURES

Auoust IS76

The Chronospace

321

In the second, the possibility of modelling time as a vehicle for causality will
be investigated, and in the third, the perception of time as a scenario, ie as a
sequence of events, will be examined.
Time

as a subjective

perception

A celebrated
aspect of Einsteins theory of relativity is the alleged interdependence of the method of observation and the object observed: Space is
what rulers measure and Time is what clocks measure. In the catalogue
of clocks we have wristwatches, grandfather clocks, an apple, a wrinkle, the
schedule which all, in
human ageing process, or a machine-depreciation
their own special way, mark the passage of time. Our biological clock runs
fast or slow, depending on the rate of our metabolism, the external environment, jet-lag, climate, etc. Our psychological clock will vary according to age,
intensity of pleasure and pain, cultural influences, climate, etc. Two seconds
with our finger dipped in boiling water is an eternity. Twelve hours of peaceful
sleep may be perceived as but an instant. For a small child, Christmas coming
land: to a middle-aged
man,
in two weeks may seem like never-never
retirement five years hence may feel as ifit is just around the corner.
Time is what our human clocks measure and the felicity-function2
will
more often than not include it. In some cases, time will be a discommodity.
In other cases, as for instance when we are enjoying a weeks holiday, or
empathising with a football team that is behind in the scoring, time is viewed
as a valuable commodity to be managed efficiently. There seems to be too
little of it.
In terms of decision making, individuals tend to perceive time in discontinuous blocks, as was cogently pointed out by Meadows in the first report to
the Club of Rome.3
The individual thinks of time as : tomorrow morning; next week; the summer
holidays; in five years; when the children grow up; when I retire. In some
cases this will be extended: my childrens lifetime; and my childrens childrens
lifetime.
The relevance of these discontinuous perceptions is that decisions will be
made with reference to them. The successful eclecticist
who has understood
the motives of static human behaviour must also fully identify the alternative
time horizons of the people whose behaviour he is studying. Quite often
decisions that are fully rational in the context of one time period may appear
irrational in a different one. An unrepentant smoker who persists in his habit
in spite of the health warnings is not necessarily irrational. If his clear objective
is longevity, and we assume here that smoking is bad for ones health, he
should not smoke. If on the other hand he has freely chosen a shorter but
more pleasurable life then smoking is rational for him even though medically
inadvisable.
Temporal rates of discount can be the object of sophisticated mathematical
theorising and therefore the time horizon in decision making, once we have
understood motives, may be a valuable tool in explaining present and in
forecasting
future behaviour.
Unreasonable
acts now become
merely
obscure-a
measure of our ignorance-and
not evidence of irrationality.

FUTURES

August 1976

322

The Chronospace

Time

as a vehicle of causality

(dynamic

modelling)

If time is a subjective perception and if that perception includes discontinuities,

these discontinuities
could be modelled for the purpose of decision making.
The result of this modelling we shall call the chronospace
which is the
analytical representation
of the locus of decision making in the past, present,
and future. Following the example of Marshall,*
we can define decision
periods by the degree to which variables alter within them. In other words
the shortest time period is that where all factors are constant and cannot
be changed. The longest time period is when all factors can change. In between
these extremes will be a series of intermediate time periods.

Past

Time

Actual preseni:
(as subjectively perceived)

Figure 1. The chronospace

From an anthropocentric
point of view it is possible to divide functional
time into seven discrete periods (Figure 1). At the centre is the actual present,
the sum total of perceptions we have about the external world. From this
vantage point we can move forward into the future or backwards into the
past and encounter the limits of conceptual spaces, which reflect the different
time periods. These limits are not straight lines, eg time periods in the past
may be further away than the equivalent periods in the future (as for instance
when there is an acceleration of the rate of change).
The first chronospace is the immediate run, a period short enough to imply
that there is no change in the strategic variables of decision making. The
immediate run is best illustrated as the day-to-day run. It is to be noted that
since our criterion for time periods is the possible changes in the variables
used, in decision making this will vary from one sector to another. If one is
caught in the rain without an umbrella, the immediate run is the time it would
take to obtain an umbrella or to seek cover. This is a few seconds in some
cases. But if one is in a boat when it starts raining, the immediate run will
be much longer-the
time it takes to go back to shore.
The second time period is the cyclical run. Here there is change but it is
cyclical, reversible change. Examples are the Kitchin, Juglar, or even Kondra-

FUTURES

August 1676

The Chronosbace

TABLE

1. THE

CHARACTERISTICS

Period
Immediate

Cyclical

Micro-structural

Macro-structural

Biological-geological

Astronomical

Infinity

OF THE CONCEPTUAL
FIGURE 1

TIME

PERIODS

SHOWN

323

IN

Characteristics
Virtually all elements relevant to decision making are unchanged. This
is the day-to-day run
Time period long enough for certain elements to fluctuate but in a
cyclical pattern. The principal characteristic
of this run is reversible
change, eg business cycles, body rhythms, etc
Irreversible
but gradual changes occur in structural organisation,
eg
technological
change, slow shifts in attitudes
Irreversible
and revolutionary
changes, eg scientific revolutions, political dynasties changing, etc
Characterised
by changes in our biological and/or geological endowment, eg Ice ages, species mutation
Characterised
by the possibility of change in planets, stars, galaxies,
etc. Probably best measured in aeons
?

tieff business cycles, human bio-rhythms,

and alternating periods of psychological excitement and depression, etc.
The third period may be called micro-structural.
Irreversible changes take
place, but they are slow and gradual. Economic growth, technological change,
visible signs of individual ageing, a persistent trend, all express themselves in
this micro-structural
run.
The fourth period is the macro-structural
run. Here, structural change
occurs but with serious discontinuities involved.
The change is revolutionary.
Examples are scientific revolutions (in the Kuhnian sense),5 and changes in
the modes of production,
eg the move from feudalism to capitalism in the
period 1500-l 750.
The above four periods contain variables that can be changed by human
volition. The next three contain variables, which in the main, are beyond
human control (at least given present technology).
The fifth period is the
biological-geological
run. Here our natural endowment
can change. This
includes climatic change, mutation of the human species, etc. Another ice age
could occur within this time period, which is usually quite long. An exception
however must be noted. An earthquake is a geological occurrence with potentially severe consequences, yet can take place in the short run. But, generally
speaking, other than earthquakes,
volcanoes, and the alleged overnight disappearance of the continent of Atlantis, geological change takes millennia.
The sixth period is the astronomical run. In this period the cooling of the
sun, the formation of new stars, and the movement of galaxies can all be
envisioned. Its unit of measurement will be in aeons.
Finally the seventh and last period is the hypothetical
infinite run, which
we will not deal with here.
The advantage of the chronospace as a model of time is that it allows the
symmetry of historical and futures studies to be perceived, and provides an
elegant framework for analysis. The seven periods suggested here can be
replaced by five, ten, or fifteen other periods.
Traditional
social sciences usually focus on the immediate
and cyclical
run. Social history will work backwards
(the past) to the micro-structural
run and social forecasting will move forward (the future) to the edges of that
same run. The archeologist will retrospect over centuries and the ambitious

FUTURES
24

August 1976

324

The Chronospace

forecaster, usually a science-fiction

writer, will prospect ahead to the same
outer limits of macro-structural
change. The climatologist will project forward
and backwards across ice ages, and the astronomer will theorise on the origins
of the universe and its ultimate fate. In each case we seem to have not two
sciences, history and future studies, but only one, the science of time, defined
and categorised by functional discontinuities in the unfolding of events.
The division of time into periods defined by the degree of change in the
variables can be quite useful to test causal hypotheses. Are there laws of history?
Is there a logic of events ? Is time the vehicle for strict causality, where knowledge
of the cause will allow the prediction of the effect? In the 18th century G. B.
Vito suggested that such laws might well exist. The encyclopaedists
and the
followers of St Simon shared this perception .6 Spencer perceived society as
a living organism in full evolutions and Hegel and Marx identified the engine
of history as economic determinism or dialectical materialism.
If in fact there are laws of change an understanding of the base (via eclectics
for instance) will allow accurate forecasting. To deny on the other hand that
there are laws of change is to deny the uniformity of nature. Without the
assumption of the uniformity of nature, the possibility of any science at all is
doubtful.
Among the opponents of a logic of history is of course Karl Popper:
There is no history of mankind, there is only an indefinite number of histories of all
aspects of human life . . .
There can be no prediction
rational means.
Herman

Kahn

of the cause of human history by scientific or any other

on the other

hand

offers the

following

:s

Critics who dispute the very notion of macrohistory may be like a man who uses a
microscope to examine a river flowing to the sea and then claims it is impossible to
determine the direction of flow. He is so close to the subject that minor details mask
its general movement.

Forecasting of course, is necessarily committed to laws of change and these

laws seem to find expression in two phenomena which become indispensable
tools for forecasting: the trend and omens (what the French call les faitsporteurs
d'avenir) .
A trend is a double-edged sword. It can lead or mislead. The distinction
found in the French school of forecasting between heavy and light trends
(tendances lourdes et Zegdres)g is particularly
useful. Translating
into our forecasting methodology a heavy trend is one which, within the relevant timeperiod, has persisted and is likely to persist. A light trend is a cyclical phenomenon not belonging to the relevant time period. The idea of trend underlies
most of the classical forecasting techniques, extrapolation,
the sceptics method,
mapping,
Markov chains, and
fork forecasts, envelope curves, contextual
retrodiction
and postdiction
(see below).
Extrapolation
illustrates the danger of mistaking heavy for light trends,
as expressed by the following example amusingly entitled
37ze Limits to
Shrinkth : lo

FUTURES

Auausll976

The Chronospace

325

A man claims he has lost five pounds in five weeks using a special reducing diet. He
then adds that,at this rate, he will lose 52 poundsinaye~and
in four years completely
disappear.
There are indeed limits to shrinkth.
The extrapolation
of the light linear
trend was a mistake. Once again it focused attention on the need to understand
the base for forecasting. If the base is too short then light trends may be mistaken for heavy. If the base is too long, heavy trends may be used to forecast
events that should have been forecast using light trends only. Here are two
examples :
If the French economys growth rate for 1975-2000
is forecast using 19601970 rates, the forecast will be very optimistic, If on the other hand, a longer
period say 1945-1970
is used, then the result will be less optimistic. Least
optimistic will be the forecast using 187~1970
as a base. Which is the correct
base? This is a difficult question and can only be answered by a qualitative
explanation of why growth rates differed in the various periods. Here again,
methods such as eclectics may be used to explain rates of change.
In this second example, a light trend is actually more relevant than the
heavy trend. A play-off is planned between the top two football teams in the
world. By heavy trend extrapolation,
team A, the perennial
champions,
should win. However, an investigation
reveals that team As goal-keeper is
afflicted with the flu and is likely to play badly. Since we are referring to a
short period of time-one
game-the
light trend (ie that the goal-keeper
has played badly in yesterdays game) is more relevant than the heavy trend
in forecasting the outcome.
The use of the trend as an indicator of a logic of change can be made even
more valid through retrodiction
and postdiction.
Retrodiction
is starting
with the present and turning the clock backwards to some period in the past
(eg extrapolating
backwards to the 1890 population of the world from present
trends). Postdiction is starting at time t - 2 and using the data to predict
the levels at t - I. An example of postdiction occurs when 1950 data are used to
postdict economic performance for 1960. Both retrodiction and postdiction
as simulation runs may be used to test the hypothesis that a time series of
quantifiable facts is in fact a trend worth using in forecasting.
Trend analysis along is quite insufficient as a forecasting technique and it
must be supplemented by omens.11
Omens or facts with a future potential are the set of all qualitative present
phenomena that may give us a clue to the future. The identifi~a~on of omens
is more an intuitive process than a systematic mechanical
procedure. In the
same way as the ideal entrepreneur
in economic theory must have strong
forecasting abilities, the ideal futurist must possess the horse sense ability to
successfully recognise omens, whatever form they may take.
What are these omens? They can range from an individual event to socia1
crises, and may be distinguished from trends in that, unlike the latter, they
do not include quantifiable time series. There may, for instance, be a nascent
sense of identity in an ethnic group of a multicultural
nation which can be a
fact with a great potential for the future. The existence of a social conflict,
of tensions, of a sense of alienation,
of increasing human stress may again
be symptoms of things to come. Clothing fashions, movements in painting,

FUTURES

August W76

music, sculpture, plays and the cinema may all be relevant omens for the
futurist to assemble.
A clue to technical or scientific omens may reside in social indicators, that
amorphous and heterogeneous
mass of data collected by statistical agencies
around the world. These social indicators,
as was pointed out in the first
article on eclectics are meaningless unless we have a theory of what we are
measuring. This theory is partly provided by eclectics, which identifies quaternary commodities and the needs they cater for. Therefore, a full understanding
of omens is aided by a comprehension
of what it is that people are trying to
achieve, ie their actual felicity function.
The importance of omens is underlined more often than not by the consequences of not noting them :
Marshall Foch, an otherwise brilliant general of World War I, completely
missed the military importance
of aviation. Aviation is pure sport, it will
never make an iota of difference in real battles, he said.
Both French and German general staffs looked back on the 1914-1918
war to derive lessons for the future. The French staff singled out trench warfare
as the wave of the future and built the disastrous Maginot Line. The Germans
conciuded, from the same facts that the future lay in mobile tank warfare and
developed the highly successful blitzkrieg.
It would be fair to say that the most important skill of the successful forecaster
is the ability to perceive omens and to draw conclusions from them. This is
a skill which, unfortunately,
is neither taught nor learnt in contemporary
universities.
Time

as a sequence

of events (scenarios)

The scenario is the heuristic tool, par excellence, for the examination of alternative
futures. The word itself is French and literally it denotes a film or theatre
script. Whereas a simulation run is a systemisation of time (la mise en sys&re
du tern&) a scenario is a quasi-artistic
expression of time (la mise en she
du
tern&).
We contend that scenario writing is both a futures-oriented
and a historical
technique using symmetrical
tools and is a possible end-point of dynamic
analysis.
TABLE
z;;tnario

Second
Third
Fourth
Fifth

2. SCENARIO

levels

LEVELS AND

THEIR

DEGREE OF DRAMATISATION

Dramatis?tion_techqique
Mathematical srmulabon or a statistical extrapolation: Here a sequence of
events is presented using low-impact dramatisation-(unless
of course a
curve shooting downwards strikes terror in the onlooker, as would be the
case in an executive boardroom), eg Forresters World 2, MeadowsWorld 3,
Mesarovic and Pestels Mankind at the Turning Point
Synopsis: Straight narrative in simple sequential form, eg war in the Middle
East; uncertain military situation: oil embargo; world energy crisis. This
approach is favoured by the Hudson Institute
Diary: Narrative in descriptive prose, eg On the 5th of October at 5.03 when
the desert sun slowly rose above the horizon, Egyptian troops attacked the
Bar-Lev line in human waves
Novel/feature film: Fully rounded and rich description of sequence of events
and characters, eg Stanley Kubricks A Clockwork Orange, or his more recent
film, Barry LyndonHappening/gaming: Full reconstruction of events involving audience participation, eg psycho-drama/gaming

FUWJRES

August 1676

The Chronospace

327

Let us formally define a scenario as a sequence of events (real or hypothetical, good or bad, future or past) that can go through different levels of
dramatisation.
By dramatisation
we refer to a metaphor drawn from the
theatre, where the power of a play is measured by the degree of empathy or
involvement of the audience. By the same token the narrative of a sequence
of events can be presented using increasingly dramatic
methods. This escalation of dramatic impact is expressed in Table 2. At the lowest level is the statistical table or a graph projecting quantitative data across time. This presentation usually involves little, if any, dramatic impact. The communication
is
intellectual
not emotional. At the next higher level is the straight synopsis
usually a one-two-three
sequence of events, often used in situation rooms
of strategic contingency
planners. The dramatic impact is higher than the
simple mathematical
table but still intellectual rather than emotional.
It is at the third level that emotions enter into the picture. At that level
a diary-type narrative attempts to recreate the flavour of a past event or
imagine that of a future. At the fourth level is the full novel or feature film
soliciting full emotional involvement.
Example of fourth-level
scenarios are
Dickens Oliver Twist, an eloquent description of life during the British industrial revolution, Stanley Kubricks historical film Barry Lyndon or futuristic
features, A Clockwork Orange and 2001-A
Space Odyssey. Finally at the ultimate
level of dramatisation
is the integral happening/psycho-drama
where the
audience actually lives the scenario. Gaming is an excellent technique belonging
to the fifth-level,
and encounter-groups
in psychology also use essentially
the same technique: full emotional involvement by participation.
The scenario method as an instrument of analysis can be used anywhere
within the chronospace.
If we view time as the unfolding of a very long film
then scenarios of the past (history) are flashbacks
and scenarios of the
future are flashforwards.
The symmetry of these two excursions into time
is expressed in Table 3. Here four types of scenarios arc identified in historical
studies, and four complementary
scenarios are shown in futures studies.
First there are two types of projective scenarios. By projective scenarios we
refer to the excursions into the future and past, which involve few value judgements, and which remain within the realm of feasibility. In this connection
we have the trend scenario of the past (what we think actually happened)
and the trend scenario of the future (what we think will probably happen).
We also have a series of what-if scenarios (again involving few value judgeTABLE

3. THE SYMMETRY

Projective scenarios
The future and the past as
projected from the present.
(Few explicit value judgements)
Normative scenarios
The future and the past as
assessed from the present.
(Explicit value judgements)

OF HISTORICAL

AND

Past scenarios
Trend: retrospective
trend analysis
Contrafactual:
eg If Napoleon
had been born in Germany..
.
Utopias: value-laden perceptions
of the past, eg la belle epoque,
the golden Periclean age
Dystopias:
nightmare visions of
the past: eg the slave trade; the
Nazi holocaust

FUTURES

August 1976

FUTURE
Future
Trend:

SCENARIOS

scenarios
high probability

scenario

Hypothetical:
eg If Britain were
to become the 51st state of the
USA.
Utopias: value-laden perceptions
of the future: eg Fouriers Phalansteres;
Marxs
communist
state
Dystopias:
nightmare visions of
the future:
eg Orwells
1984;
Huxleys Brave New World

328

The Chronospace

ments of the past and future. The what-if scenarios of the past are contrafactual conditionals, eg if Napoleon had been born in Britain he would not
have risen to prominence.
The what-if future scenarios are possible but
not probable, eg If Britain were to become the 51st state of America, the
Queen might become President of the USA. In both cases the what-if scenarios
are hypothetical.
In a different class, both in history and in forecasting,
is the normative
scenario. Here there are explicit value judgements
falling in two categories:
heavenly visions of the past and future (utopias) and nightmare
visions
of the past and future (dystopias).
Since time is a perception, scenarios a fortiori are an exercise in subjectivism.
However, so is all science, and if we strive for intersubjective
consensus, that
consensus, for all intents and purposes, is equivalent
to objectivity.
The
scenario technique is the final stage in the intersubjective
communication
of
the passage of time.
The full mastery of this technique requires the summoning of various qualities
that must be inherent in the ideal futurist. A scenario requires a fertile imagination, especially hypothetical
scenarios. However it also requires logical consistency and rigour, and the writer must; ideally, also be a mathematical
systems modeller. Finally, and most important,
since scenario writing is a
dramatisation
technique, the writer should be a consummate creative writer
or film maker. At the limit, tomorrows futurist will have to be a Renaissance
man, versed in a dozen disciplines and possessing multiple skills.
Conclusion
In this second article on methodology the focus has shifted from an analysis
of the base, an indispensable first step in futures studies, to an examination
of time. The measurement of time was perceived as including the subjectivity
of time periods. However this subjectivity
could be structured in discrete
periods, it was contended, and these periods could be distinguished according
to the variability or constancy of certain key variables.
Time was also perceived as a vehicle for causality and this led to an investigation of two most important concepts: trends and omens.
Finally time was perceived as a sequence of events best described as a
scenario. The scenario could be normative or projective and could deal with
This last point brings us to the central message
the past as well as the future.
of this article: there should be a science of time to replace the separate approaches qf
history andfutures studies. The symmetry between historical and futures methods
was emphasised, and this symmetry is restated in Figure 2.
The relationship between the proposed science of time and eclectics can now
be clearly articulated. Eclectics is a theory of behaviour that seeks to explain
human actions by referrence to the paradigm of choice. A felicity function
guides us; when we encounter scarcity we are forced to choose. If we know
what we are looking for, then forecasting our behaviour will become possible.
To successfully forecast we must bring in the time variable. Time will enter
our eclectic analysis as a quaternary commodity or discommodity. This will
allow us to have temporal rates of discount. Time will also enter into our

FUTURES

August 1976

The Chronospace

329

Future
normative
scenario

normative

2b. Normative forecasting

2a. Projective forecasting

Real

present
Retrodiction scenarios

2d. Postdiction

Zc. Retrodiction

Alternative
present

ility

The present determines the

area of feasibility of the future
2e. Anti-historicist thesis

Figure 2. Preface to a science

FUTURES

August 1976

2f. Determinist thesis

of time: the chronospace

and scenarios

330

The Chronospace

analysis as a constraint to choice since the (seven) periods in the chronospace

impose difIerentia1 choice constraints.
The combination of eclectics and a science of time could lead to the construction of a theory of dynamics. That such an approach could be made
operational has not been demonstrated in either this article or the previous
one. As evidence that these thoughts can lead to practical futures studies I
can cite the major interdisciplinary
project conducted by GAMMA
for the
Canadian
government,
which used techniques similar to eclectics and the
chronospace.

References
1. Kimon
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.

10.
11.

Valaskakis, The eclectics paradigm: a proposed methodology for

futures studies, Futures, December 1975, 1 (6), pages 451-462.
Defined in the first article as the relationship between subjective satisfaction,
which we want to maximise, and the elements that bring about this satisfaction.
D. Meadows et al., The Limits to Growth (New York, Signet, 1972).
A. Marshall, Princa$les of Economics, eighth edition (London, Macmillan, 1947).
T. Kuhn, Tha Structure of Scientzjic Revolutions (Chicago, University of Chicago
Press, 1967).
Dagobert Runes, Philosophy of history, in ~ict~o~r~ of Philosophy (New York,
Little Field Adams, 1961), page 127.
K. Popper, The Poverty of Historicism (London, Routledge, 1941), page 183.
Herman Kahn and B. Bruce-Briggs, Things to Come (New York, Macmillan, 1972).
A term initially invented by Gaston Berger and developed by Bertrand de
Jouvenel in The Art of Conjecture, transIated by Nikitov Lary (New York, Basic
Books, 1967).
W. L. Gardiner, The consumer and the conserver (Montreal, GAMMA,
1975), page 10 (unpublished).
See A. Tiano, La Methode de la Prospective (Paris, Dunod, 1974).

FUTURES

August 1876