Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
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21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
+-------------------------------+
| year
savings
income
dum |
|-------------------------------|
| 1970
61
727.1
0 |
| 1971
68.6
790.2
0 |
| 1972
63.6
855.3
0 |
| 1973
89.6
965
0 |
| 1974
97.6
1054.2
0 |
|-------------------------------|
| 1975
104.4
1159.2
0 |
| 1976
96.4
1273
0 |
| 1977
92.5
1401.4
0 |
| 1978
112.6
1580.1
0 |
| 1979
130.1
1769.5
0 |
|-------------------------------|
| 1980
161.8
1973.3
0 |
| 1981
199.1
2200.2
0 |
| 1982
205.5
2347.3
1 |
| 1983
167
2522.4
1 |
| 1984
235.7
2810
1 |
|-------------------------------|
| 1985
206.2
3002
1 |
| 1986
196.5
3187.6
1 |
| 1987
168.4
3363.1
1 |
| 1988
189.1
3640.8
1 |
| 1989
187.8
3894.5
1 |
|-------------------------------|
| 1990
208.7
4166.8
1 |
| 1991
246.4
4343.7
1 |
| 1992
272.6
4613.7
1 |
| 1993
214.4
4790.2
1 |
| 1994
189.4
5021.7
1 |
|-------------------------------|
| 1995
249.3
5320.8
1 |
+-------------------------------+
UAM-X
ECONOMETRA
50
1000
100
2000
3000
INCOME
SAVINGS
150
200
4000
250
5000
300
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
YEAR
SAVINGS
INCOME
UAM-X
300
ECONOMETRA
250
1992
1995
1991
SAVINGS
150
200
1984
1985
1986
1982
1981
1980
1983
1990
1993
1994
1988 1989
1987
100
1979
1978
1975
19741976
1977
1973
50
1971
1972
1970
1000
2000
3000
INCOME
4000
5000
Por lo que respecta a los datos a considerar por el modelo, el cual esta dado por
ln savings 1 2 ln income 3 ln dum u
se puede notar que matemticamente el ln(0) no esta definido mientras que el ln(1)=0.
Al estimar el modelo apuntado al logaritmo de la variable dummy incluida en el archivo
(variable ldum=ln(dum)) se perdern las observaciones correspondientes al periodo
1970-1981 (donde dum=0), y no se logra el objetivo de identificar el cambio estructural.
Lo anterior se puede ilustrar al estimar el modelo con Stata, esto es:
gen
gen
gen
reg
lsavings= ln(savings)
lincome= ln(income)
ldum= ln(dum)
lsavings lincome ldum
Source |
SS
df
MS
-------------+-----------------------------Model | .051667822
1 .051667822
Residual | .224070354
12 .018672529
-------------+-----------------------------Total | .275738176
13 .021210629
Number of obs
F( 1,
12)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
=
=
=
=
=
=
14
2.77
0.1221
0.1874
0.1197
.13665
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------lsavings |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------lincome |
.2413205
.1450727
1.66
0.122
-.0747658
.5574068
ldum | (dropped)
_cons |
3.355222
1.191403
2.82
0.016
.7593787
5.951065
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
donde se puede notar que n=14, es decir, se toman en la regresin solo las observaciones
que corresponden a ln(1)=0 (para los aos 1982-1995).
UAM-X
ECONOMETRA
Para sortear est problema se puede generar una nueva variable denominada dum2
definida de la siguiente manera:
10 para los aos 1970 a 1981
dum2=
1 para cualquier otro ao (1982-1995)
UAM-X
ECONOMETRA
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2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------+
| year
savings
income
dum
lsavings
lincome
ldum
dum2 |
|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|
| 1970
61
727.1
0
4.110874
6.589064
.
0 |
| 1971
68.6
790.2
0
4.228292
6.672286
.
0 |
| 1972
63.6
855.3
0
4.152614
6.751452
.
0 |
| 1973
89.6
965
0
4.495355
6.872128
.
0 |
| 1974
97.6
1054.2
0
4.580877
6.960537
.
0 |
|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|
| 1975
104.4
1159.2
0
4.64823
7.055485
.
0 |
| 1976
96.4
1273
0
4.568506
7.149132
.
0 |
| 1977
92.5
1401.4
0
4.527209
7.245227
.
0 |
| 1978
112.6
1580.1
0
4.723842
7.365243
.
0 |
| 1979
130.1
1769.5
0
4.868303
7.478452
.
0 |
|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|
| 1980
161.8
1973.3
0
5.086361
7.587462
.
0 |
| 1981
199.1
2200.2
0
5.293807
7.696303
.
0 |
| 1982
205.5
2347.3
1
5.325446
7.761021
0
2.302585 |
| 1983
167
2522.4
1
5.117994
7.832966
0
2.302585 |
| 1984
235.7
2810
1
5.46256
7.94094
0
2.302585 |
|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|
| 1985
206.2
3002
1
5.328846
8.007034
0
2.302585 |
| 1986
196.5
3187.6
1
5.280663
8.067023
0
2.302585 |
| 1987
168.4
3363.1
1
5.126342
8.120619
0
2.302585 |
| 1988
189.1
3640.8
1
5.242276
8.199959
0
2.302585 |
| 1989
187.8
3894.5
1
5.235378
8.267321
0
2.302585 |
|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|
| 1990
208.7
4166.8
1
5.340898
8.334904
0
2.302585 |
| 1991
246.4
4343.7
1
5.506956
8.376482
0
2.302585 |
| 1992
272.6
4613.7
1
5.608006
8.436786
0
2.302585 |
| 1993
214.4
4790.2
1
5.367844
8.474327
0
2.302585 |
| 1994
189.4
5021.7
1
5.243861
8.521523
0
2.302585 |
|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|
| 1995
249.3
5320.8
1
5.518657
8.579379
0
2.302585 |
+-----------------------------------------------------------------------+
Number of obs
F( 2,
23)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
=
=
=
=
=
=
26
82.79
0.0000
0.8780
0.8674
.16465
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------lsavings |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------lincome |
.6695037
.1073573
6.24
0.000
.4474182
.8915892
dum2 | -.0002938
.0580883
-0.01
0.996
-.1204585
.119871
_cons | -.1588827
.7657065
-0.21
0.837
-1.742867
1.425102
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UAM-X
ECONOMETRA
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
+---------------------------------------+
| year
lincome
dum2
lindum2 |
|---------------------------------------|
| 1970
6.589064
0
0 |
| 1971
6.672286
0
0 |
| 1972
6.751452
0
0 |
| 1973
6.872128
0
0 |
| 1974
6.960537
0
0 |
|---------------------------------------|
| 1975
7.055485
0
0 |
| 1976
7.149132
0
0 |
| 1977
7.245227
0
0 |
| 1978
7.365243
0
0 |
| 1979
7.478452
0
0 |
|---------------------------------------|
| 1980
7.587462
0
0 |
| 1981
7.696303
0
0 |
| 1982
7.761021
2.302585
17.87041 |
| 1983
7.832966
2.302585
18.03607 |
| 1984
7.94094
2.302585
18.28469 |
|---------------------------------------|
| 1985
8.007034
2.302585
18.43688 |
| 1986
8.067023
2.302585
18.57501 |
| 1987
8.120619
2.302585
18.69842 |
| 1988
8.199959
2.302585
18.8811 |
| 1989
8.267321
2.302585
19.03621 |
|---------------------------------------|
| 1990
8.334904
2.302585
19.19183 |
| 1991
8.376482
2.302585
19.28756 |
| 1992
8.436786
2.302585
19.42642 |
UAM-X
ECONOMETRA
24. | 1993
8.474327
2.302585
19.51286 |
25. | 1994
8.521523
2.302585
19.62153 |
|---------------------------------------|
26. | 1995
8.579379
2.302585
19.75475 |
+---------------------------------------+
Number of obs
F( 3,
22)
Prob > F
R-squared
Adj R-squared
Root MSE
=
=
=
=
=
=
26
96.14
0.0000
0.9291
0.9195
.12834
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------lsavings |
Coef.
Std. Err.
t
P>|t|
[95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+---------------------------------------------------------------lincome |
.9288191
.1060343
8.76
0.000
.7089175
1.148721
dum2 |
2.327843
.5864124
3.97
0.001
1.111698
3.543988
lindum2 | -.2985768
.0749812
-3.98
0.001
-.4540782
-.1430753
_cons | -2.004836
.7557207
-2.65
0.015
-3.572105
-.4375676
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ahora las cosas han cambiado radicalmente. Los resultados obtenidos indican que tanto
el coeficiente asociado a la variable dum2 como al efecto interaccin, variable lindum2,
resultan ambos estadsticamente significativos, por lo que existe un desplazamiento en el
intercepto como un cambio en el impacto (pendiente) de la variable lincome sobre
lsavings considerando los dos periodos considerados en el anlisis. Para el perodo 19821995, la propensin marginal a ahorrar es 0.6303 (0.9288191-.2985768=.6302423),
mientras que para el perodo anterior es de 0.9288. De la misma manera, el trmino de
intercepto para el primer perodo es negativo (-2.004836) pero es positivo para las
segunda parte del periodo completo en estudio (.323007 = -2.004836+2.327843).
Todos los clculos realizados en est ejercicio demuestran cmo los errores de
especificacin pueden cambiar radicalmente los resultados que se pueden obtener en un
anlisis.
UAM-X
ECONOMETRA
9.22
a)
Preparacin de los datos.
Agregar las variables aio y trimestre, de manera tal de contar con la siguiente tabla:
AIO
TRIMESTRE
1978
1
1978
2
1978
3
1978
4
1979
1
1979
2
1979
3
1979
4
1980
1
1980
2
1980
3
1980
4
1981
1
1981
2
1981
3
1981
4
1982
1
1982
2
1982
3
1982
4
1983
1
1983
2
1983
3
1983
4
1984
1
1984
2
1984
3
1984
4
1985
1
1985
2
1985
3
1985
4
DISH
841
957
999
960
894
851
863
878
792
589
657
699
675
652
628
529
480
530
557
602
658
749
827
858
808
840
893
950
838
884
905
909
FRIG
1317
1615
1662
1295
1271
1555
1639
1238
1277
1258
1417
1185
1196
1410
1417
919
943
1175
1269
973
1102
1344
1641
1225
1429
1699
1749
1117
1242
1684
1764
1328
WASH
1271
1295
1313
1150
1289
1245
1270
1103
1273
1031
1143
1101
1181
1116
1190
1125
1036
1019
1047
918
1137
1167
1230
1081
1326
1228
1297
1198
1292
1342
1323
1274
DUR
252.6
272.4
270.9
273.9
268.9
262.9
270.9
263.4
260.6
231.9
242.7
248.6
258.7
248.4
255.5
240.4
247.7
249.1
251.8
262
263.3
280
288.5
300.5
312.6
322.5
324.3
333.1
344.8
350.3
369.1
356.4
UAM-X
ECONOMETRA
1980q1
1982q1
1984q1
Refrigeradores
1986q1
1980q1
1986q1
1978q1
1980q1
1982q1
1984q1
Lavalozas
1986q1
WASH
900 1000 1100 1200 1300
1978q1
DISH
500 600 700 800 900 1000
FRIG
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
1978q1
1982q1
1984q1
Lavadoras
UAM-X
ECONOMETRA
-------------------------------------------Variable | frig
dish
wash
-------------+-----------------------------D2 | 245.3750
8.2500
-45.2500
| 84.8393
76.5448
52.1732
| 0.0073
0.9149
0.3931
D3 | 347.6250
42.8750
1.0000
| 84.8393
76.5448
52.1732
| 0.0003
0.5798
0.9848
D4 | -62.1250
49.8750
-1.1e+02
| 84.8393
76.5448
52.1732
| 0.4701
0.5200
0.0500
_cons | 1.2e+03
748.2500
1.2e+03
| 59.9904
54.1253
36.8920
| 0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
-------------+-----------------------------N |
32
32
32
rss | 8.1e+05
6.6e+05
3.0e+05
F |
10.6
.2098
1.901
r2 |
.5318
.02198
.1692
-------------------------------------------legend: b/se/p
UAM-X
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
ECONOMETRA
1978q1
1980q1
WASH
1982q1
t
1984q1
1986q1
Serie destacionalizada
wash deswash
Variable |
Obs
Mean
Std. Dev.
Min
Max
-------------+-------------------------------------------------------wash |
32
1187.844
108.7996
918
1342
deswash |
32
1187.844
99.16899
987.094
1349.469
UAM-X
ECONOMETRA
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
+-----------------+
| wash
deswash |
|-----------------|
| 1271
1233.219 |
| 1295
1302.469 |
| 1313
1274.219 |
| 1150
1219.094 |
| 1289
1251.219 |
|-----------------|
| 1245
1252.469 |
| 1270
1231.219 |
| 1103
1172.094 |
| 1273
1235.219 |
| 1031
1038.469 |
|-----------------|
| 1143
1104.219 |
| 1101
1170.094 |
| 1181
1143.219 |
| 1116
1123.469 |
| 1190
1151.219 |
|-----------------|
| 1125
1194.094 |
| 1036
998.219 |
| 1019
1026.469 |
| 1047
1008.219 |
| 918
987.094 |
|-----------------|
| 1137
1099.219 |
| 1167
1174.469 |
| 1230
1191.219 |
| 1081
1150.094 |
| 1326
1288.219 |
|-----------------|
| 1228
1235.469 |
| 1297
1258.219 |
| 1198
1267.094 |
| 1292
1254.219 |
| 1342
1349.469 |
|-----------------|
| 1323
1284.219 |
| 1274
1343.094 |
+-----------------+
UAM-X