January 11, 2012

Technical Analysis Vista: EUR/USD

International Markets Analysis
FINANCIAL PRODUCTS SALES DIVISION

EUR/USD:
EUR/USD dropped to 16-month low ($1.2664) on January 9 mainly due to Eurozone debt crisis and recession
worries.
In the short term (1-3 weeks), downwards trend remains as indicated by trend indicators (MACD, DMI and MAs 55,
21 days). Support levels at $1.2664 (9/1/12 low), at the area of $1.2585-1.2600 (24/8/10 low & 76.4%: Fibonacci
retracement: $1.1875-$1.4939) and at $1.2478 (6/7/10 low). However, RSI (9 days) is approaching oversold area,
which could produce some short term reaction with resistance levels at $1.2950 (21 days MA & 5/1/12 high) and at
$1.3076 (3/1/12 high).
Daily QEUR=

9/2/2011 - 1/18/2012 (GMT)

Price
USD
1.41

1.4
1.39
1.38
1.37
1.36
1.35
1.34
1.33
1.32
Cndl, QEUR=, Bid
1/11/2012, 1.2773, 1.2789, 1.2727, 1.2760
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 55
1/11/2012, 1.3314
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 21
1/11/2012, 1.2948
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 200
1/11/2012, 1.3947

1.31

100.0% 1.3076
76.4%
61.8%
50.0%
38.2%

1.2979
1.2918
1.287
1.2821

0.0%

1.2664

1.3
1.29
1.28
1.27
.1234

RSI, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing

1/11/2012, 31.299

Value
USD
60
40
20
.123

05

12

19

26

03

September 2011

10

17

24

October 2011

31

07

14

21

November 2011

28

05

12

19

December 2011

26

02

09

16

January 2012

Source: International Markets Analysis, Reuters.

In the medium term (1-3 months), EUR/USD remains in strong downwards trend. Support levels found at $1.2478
(6/7/10 low), at $1.2149 (29/6/10 low) and at $1.1875 (7/6//10 low). Resistance levels are placed at $1.3197 (21/12/11
high), at $1.3385 (12/12/11 high) and at $1.3548 (2/12/11 high).

International Markets Analysis

t.+30 210 326 8265, marketanalysis@alpha.gr

Weekly QEUR=

11/25/2007 - 4/15/2012 (GMT)

Cndl, QEUR=, Bid
1/15/2012, 1.2691, 1.2818, 1.2664, 1.2756 Price
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 200
USD
1/15/2012, 1.3899
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 55
1.56
1/15/2012, 1.3869
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 21
1.52
1/15/2012, 1.3516

0.0%

1.4939
1.48

1.44

23.6% 1.4216
1.4

38.2% 1.3769
1.36

50.0% 1.3407
1.32

61.8% 1.3046
1.28

76.4% 1.2598
1.24

1.2
100.0% 1.1875
.1234
RSI, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing
1/15/2012, 28.264

Value
USD
30
.123

J F M A M J

Q1 08

Q2 08

J A

S O N

Q3 08

D J F M A M

Q4 08

Q1 09

Q2 09

J A

S O N

Q3 09

D J

Q4 09

F M A M

Q1 10

J J A

Q2 10

S O

Q3 10

N D J

Q4 10

F M A M

Q1 11

J J

Q2 11

A S O

Q3 11

N D J

Q4 11

F M A

Q1 12

Source: International Markets Analysis, Reuters.

Events which will probably affect EUR/USD, at least in the short term:

ECB meeting (12/1)

Spain (12/1 & 19/1) and Italy (13/1, 26/1 & 30/1) bonds auctions

US corporate results season with most sensitive announcements by 23/1

ECOFIN meeting (24/1)

Fed meeting (24-25/1)

EU summit (30/1)

International Markets Analysis

www.alpha.gr

Panos Remoundos
Maria Koutouzi
Ioannis Kouravelos, CFA
Konstantinos Anathreptakis

Disclaimer:

+30 210 326 8265

marketanalysis@alpha.gr

premoundos@alpha.gr
mkoutouzi@alpha.gr
ikouravelos@alpha.gr
kanathreptakis@alpha.gr

The information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we make no representation or warranty,
express or implied, with respect to the fairness, correctness, accuracy or completeness of such information. In addition we have no obligation to update, modify or amend
this communication or to otherwise notify a recipient in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or
subsequently becomes inaccurate. We are not acting and do not purport to act in any way as an advisor or in a fiduciary capacity. We therefore strongly suggest that
recipients seek their own independent advice in relation to any investment, financial, legal, tax, accounting or regulatory issues discussed herein. Analyses and opinions
contained herein may be based on assumptions that if altered can change the analyses or opinions expressed. Nothing contained herein shall constitute any
representation or warranty as to future performance of any financial instrument, credit, currency rate or other market or economic measure. Furthermore, past
performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This communication is provided for information purposes only. It is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer
to buy, any security, nor to enter into any agreement or contract with Alpha bank or any affiliates. In addition, because this communication is a summary only it may not
contain all material terms, and therefore this communication in and of itself should not form the basis for any investment decision. Financial instruments that may be
discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors, and potential investors must make an independent assessment of the appropriateness of any transaction in light of
their own objectives and circumstances, including the possible risks and benefits of entering into such a transaction. By accepting receipt of this communication the
recipient will be deemed to represent that they possess, either individually or through their advisers, sufficient investment expertise to understand the risks involved in any
purchase or sale of any financial instrument discussed herein.