Q2 2008 Charleston Market Report

The Charleston Market Report
"An Analysis of Real Estate and Economic Trends"

Accurate Predictions Ahead of Wall Street
"I think it's a lending bubble. Lending is out of control. The way some people finance their homes is crazy."
Introduction Brad Rundbaken.
Charleston Market Report Post and Courier
Commentary September 14, 2006
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Search Like Agents For the country, "We are not so much a housing bubble as a lending bubble," he said. "Many lenders are involved in high-risk financing
Housing Cartoons scenarios with borrowers when they push high-risk loans and do not expect loan defaults when the market turns ugly," he said. "My main
CMR in the News worry for the local real estate market here is the possibility of nationwide recession, which could drag down the U.S. real estate market even
further."
Brad Rundbaken
Leading Indicators Post and Courier
Existing Residential Sales September 16, 2006
New Building Permits
Foreclosures "As far as the economy goes I feel the national economy is going to get worse before it gets better. There are a couple of major problems out
Monthly Inventory Ratio there that are looming and if kernels in a bag of popcorn represent risk then we are starting to see some kernels pop."
Interest Rates Brad Rundbaken
* Current Interest Rates Q4 2006 Commentary- The Charleston Market Report
* Long Term Interest Rates January 23, 2007
* Fed Watch
"I know many of you are feeling good because of the stock market reaction after the cut. This euphoria in the market will not last forever with
Market Matrix some of the existing problems related to leverage and easy credit. The 50 bp rate cut will now put even more pressure on the US Dollar to
the downside. In order for The Fed to ditch the inflation argument/fight and drop rates they must be analyzing some worrisome data on the
Residential Market Matrix economy and a potential recession. So now inflation is contained? BS!!!"
Townhouse/Condo Market Brad Rundbaken
National Real Estate Data Trendocracy: The Bernanke Dollar Put and Interest Rate Call
September 21, 2007
Housing Cycle Barometer
Current Economic Data Countrywide
US Housing Market Stats Tomorrow is judgement day for Countrywide becauase they are releasing their earnings. I expect them to be brutal.
Local Housing Market Stats
Home Appreciation (Last 12
Months)
US County Appreciation Rankings
Median & Avg Sales Prices of
Homes Sold in the US
Philadelphia Housing Index
CME Housing Index Futures
SC Real Estate Data
Reports
Commercial Market Data
Charleston
Trulia Data
National Heat Map
South Carolina Heat Map
Berkeley County Heat Map
Charleston County Heat Map
Dorchester County Heat Map
Brad Rundbaken
Trendocracy
October 25, 2007
Charleston Real Estate TV
Indy Mac Bancorp
Historic Charleston
"Another Anatomy of a Collapse? Time will tell.
On Demand Video
Charleston Tour Videos
Charleston on the Today Show
CMR Best Real Estate Website
The Cigar Factory
**Check out the interactive tour!
Additional Information
Famous Quotes
Testimonials
About Brad Rundbaken
Resources
Disclaimers and
Acknowledgements
Contact
Brad Rundbaken
(843) 297-2701 (Phone)
brundbaken@comcast.net
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_________________________________________ Brad Rundbaken
I Have Joined the Blogging World! Trendocracy
Trendocracy July 30, 2007
________________________________________
Predictions for 2008
* Oil will hit $125-$150 per barrell. Sell your Suburbans in Mt. Pleasant soccer moms!
Q4 2007 - The Charleston Market Report
DWA
January 20, 2008
________________________________________
My Real Estate Attorney

Clay Olson, P.C.
Olson Law Firm
________________________________________
2nd Quarter 2008

This website is dedicated to telling the truth about the most current local and national real estate and economic market conditions.
*** The Charleston Market Report is now providing monthly updates to Subscribers Only. If you would like to receive a monthly
email on the latest local and national real estate and economic trends you will need to subscribe. The subscription is currently free
and I keep all emails confidential.***
There is an old saying used by many successful investors in the stock market which states, The trend is your friend. These investors are
successful because they do not strictly rely on fundamental analysis (PE Ratios, Book Value, Dividends, etc) to help them determine what to
buy. They also rely on technical analysis, which involves utilizing the supply and demand of the market to help them make investment
decisions.
Smart investors take the emotions out of their investments and allow the market to help them make rational decisions. The ability to know
trends in the market gives you a tremendous advantage over the masses that are merely playing a high stakes investment game with no real
data or strategy and instead rely strictly on emotion.
Just like the stock market, real estate markets have their own cycles which are influenced by local, regional, national and global economics
and events. The first thing to understand about real estate is that people generally tend to follow the crowd. The second is that many people
believe whatever the existing trend is, that trend will continue in the same manner in the future without changing. This type of thinking could
cost you thousands of dollars in the real estate market if you do not educate yourself before you buy or sell your next property.
The purpose of this website is to provide statistics and a macro view on the latest and most up to date trends that are occuring in the Tri-
County real estate market. What is unique about this website is that some of the leading indicator charts have 15+ years worth of local data
and trends. These are primary trends and they illustrate past trends and what is currently happening in the Charleston residential housing
market as a result of supply and demand dynamics. It is important to remember that real estate is local and what is happening in Miami,
Atlanta or San Diego may not reflect current market conditions in Charleston.
Commentary - Q2 2008
Hey Bailout/Socialist Nation,
I hope everyone is enjoying the summer.

A couple of housekeeping items before we get into the nitty gritty world of the economy and real estate. Me and my partner (Web Guru) are
working hard on the new website. I do not have a timetable of when we are going to be finished but it is exciting. I hope many of you come
along for the "premium content" and I can assure you it will pay for itself. I should be real nervous right now about this venture but I am
not. Confidence baby! I have already dealt with enough bubbles and recessions to last most a lifetime. You can call me bubble boy if you
want. I have been in the financial/real estate world for the past 10 years and I am very confident in my abilities to provide accurate and
truthful analysis amidst the smoke and mirrors in everyday life. I have many subscribers who have been with me since day one who can
back me up on that statement and if you do not believe us then go read all of my past CMRs for the past two years. I am not hiding anything
or I would be like Jim Cramer and have to explain myself every night about my inaccurate goofs and analysis. I encourage you to go back
and read all my stuff and make a decision for yourself about the quality of this newsletter. Just remember what I wrote the past two years
was while I was giving this report away for free. Just think how much better it gets when I start charging for it. :)
I would also appreciate any input from all of you for if you have suggestions about how we can make the website better. Please feel free to
email me at brundbaken@comcast.net if you have some recommendations.
A quick note about the info and data on the CMR website. This information is protected by copyright laws. I have heard that some people
are taking my data, cutting and pasting it, and are then putting their name on it for their own personal marketing. Please do not this. When
you go to the website you will now see the charts with my name and website on them to try and prevent others from stealing this info. I
would ask all of you to contact me if you come in contact with someone using my info/charts so I can handle it. If you want to use the charts
for your work then you need to contact me and get permission.
The most recent issue of the Charleston Regional Business Journal has a good article called "Expected upswing in real estate market not here
yet" on the local real estate conditions. The CMR was quoted a couple of times. I am always the guy in these articles who is the most
bearish. I am not an optimist just merely a realist. You know the old saying, "What is is." I just do not sugarcoast anything because it is not
my style. It was a well written article if you decide to read it.
In this issue I am going to give all of you a little peak at some new tools and analysis. There will be more when we go live with the new
website but this will give you an idea of what we are building. Once we have refined the Charleston Market Report site I plan on
implementing a separate site for investments. I plan on setting up some investment models for the (DIYs) Do It Yourselfers and have money
managers for the high end clients. I will have to set up a Registered Investment Advisory Firm in order to do this but I like to do one thing at
a time so the CMR is the first priority. Unlike Dr. Al Parish, I actually have securities licenses (7,65 and 63) that are parked right now so I
will not be giving investment advice without a license. How that man got away with that crap for so long is a mystery to me!
Once both sites are built I would like to offer bundled or separate subscriptions for those interested. I am not sure about pricing yet. My
main goal is to bridge real estate and investing with the risk management process I have spent so much time learning over the past ten years.
So no matter whether you are involved in the real estate or the stock market you will feel comfortable with the fact that the investment
process is designed for up, down and sideways markets. This is why trend analysis, relative strength, research, and risk/reward are so
important. It does not matter what type of investment you are going to be involved in because you will immediately see that we have a game
plan for any scenario. Just think if Wall Street had any idea what risk management was all about and we would not be in the mess we are in
today! I know wishful thinking and trust me, those clowns will NOT learn their lesson because so many of them are a bunch of
dysfunctional Egomaniacs.
By most accounts the market had peaked by the end of 2005. But the belief held by the vast majority of forecasters was that homeowners,
homebuilders, and the mortgage industry would simply have to live without the dizzying double digit price increases that predominated
during the prior decade. Most believed that after the largest and fastest increase in history, appreciation would just return to the traditional
2% to 3% annual rates. And although some distant rumblings from the subprime market could be heard in the second half of 2006, no one
given much credibility on the national stage was predicting that the subprime problems would spread, or that the country faced serious
declines in national home prices, rocketing defaults, rampant bankruptcy among lenders, or bailouts for Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. A
handful of others and me sounded the alarm in 2006 regarding the "Lending Bubble" but nobody listened. Some "so called experts" actually
wrote editorials or took out ads in the Post & Courier claiming I was wrong and basicly an idiot. I think they all stand corrected in a major
way. Don't you? No more editorials lately Mr. Lucey?
Please Watch and Get Outraged America!

The CMR has been discussing these issues for 2 years!
Contact your politician and let them know what you think about their economic policies.
Click Here to Play
Take A Load Off Fannie!

Since this is probably the last free quarterly CMR I have been thinking hard about what to write about. I think the Fannie Mae and Freddie
Mac issue is one of the most important issues with regards to real estate and the economy that we will see in a long time. I feel a better name
for these two fat, bloated, irresponsible and stupid red headed step children that were created by the US Government should be Phony Mae
and Fraudy Mac. No I can not take credit for these nicknames.
I ask all of you reading this commentary why the United States government rewards fraud and predatory lending in the form of bailouts when
there are no profits and rather huge losses among these financial companies. Where was the outrage when these companies were banking
significant profits since 2000? When the oil companies demonstrate significant profits our government wants to tax their gains and
investigate. Can you say HYPOCRICY! Government needs to let the capital markets remain free and quit manipulating them!
Here is a snapshot of these two rug rats.
Phoney Mae
Fraudy Mac
So I dedicate the following tune to you Fraudy Mae, Phony Mac and all of your enablers in Washington DC courtesy The Band from 1969.
How convenient I play this video at the moment our fearless leaders in DC are passing the Housing Bailout Bill. Man, this band was
psychic!
Click Here to Play
You must play while your read the article!

and
Take a load off Fannie, take a load for free: Take a load off Fannie, and, and, and you can
put the load right on me.
That is exactly what the Demopublicans and Republicrats are doing right now. They take the load ie.bailout (it sounds like loan NOT load in
the song) and put it right on you and me. How convenient. God bless America! The only reason the Housing Bailout Bill of 2008 gets
passed is because of Fraudy Mae and Phony Mac. President Bush had to pull his veto threat on the bill because Congress attached the Phony
and Fraudy Bailout to the Housing Bill. Bush and everyone else knows if these two go down it is depression and economic Armageddon.
Here is the truthful headline you will not see in the mainstream media:
Bush Caves: Will Sign Housing Bill That Won't Save Housing Market
Jonathan Kennedy | Jul 23, 08 8:53 AM
Bush has dropped his threat to veto the $25 billion housing deal that is about to sail through Congress. The bill is probably just a drop in the
bucket, but it's designed to ease the pressure on consumers and bolster struggling GSEs Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE).
Key Features:
l
permits the government to buy shares in the two firms,
l
overhauls regulatory oversight,
l
allows the government to insure up to $300 billion in refinanced mortgages,
l
and extends existing credit lines.
The White House has threatened to veto the bill as a result of a $4 billion program to allow local governments to buy foreclosed properties,
but Bush has now dropped his opposition (probably because he doesn't want the White House stormed by an angry mob).
Source:www.clusterstock.com
Below are the highlights of Housing Bailout Bill written by Professor William Wheaton, Department of Economics, MIT. I want to
give you a smart economist's view (I imagine he is smart if he teaches at MIT) since I am not an economist.
The bill, passed on 7/24/08 by both houses of Congress, contains a number of provisions designed to help prevent housing foreclosures,
encourage housing sales and, in general, stimulate the housing market. In most respects, its specific measures actually offer remarkably small
incentives, with complicated features that most homeowners or potential homeowners will likely chose to forego. On the other hand, its
bailout and preservation of Fannie and Freddie are likely to be of historic importance. Let's examine each feature in detail.
1. Loan restructuring. In this feature, homeowners whose mortgage payments have risen above 31% of their income can go to their lender
and renegotiate their loan, lowering its magnitude to a reasonable range, given their current house value and income. In exchange for
lower payments, however, the owner gives up at least 50% of the future appreciation in the house (at such time as it is sold). Given that
the market is continuing to decline and that housing markets always mean-revert, the upside potential for a lender on this swap is
actually quite attractive. Accountants will surely argue over how lenders can book the expected future appreciation, but at some point it
will handsomely reward the lender for the current loan write-down.
My own view is that only owners who are deep underwater and who want desperately to stay in their current house will avail
themselves of this swap feature. Notice also that it does not help owners with negative equity that are still able to afford their
payments.
2. First-time buyer tax credit. On the surface, the ability to take a tax credit of up to $7500 for buying a home seems to be just the shot in
the arm that sagging sales need. That's true until you read the fine print and note that the $7500 has to be repaid in 15 annual
installments. In effect it's a no-interest loan for 15 years. When looked at this way, the feature saves the buyer at most just a few
hundred dollars a yearthe annual value of the forgone interest. This seems like a very small amount to influence the decision of
anxious new buyers waiting on the market's sideline.
3. Expanded standard deduction for home owning. This is an interesting provision and actually might help stimulate home buyingbut
only for those owners who generally have very low income, little or no debt and few other deductions. The vast majority of owners opt
to itemize and for them this provision has no impact.
4. Reduced fees for Reverse Mortgages. This interesting feature could have the undesirable side effect of actually reducing the
availability or supply of reverse mortgages. Alternatively, it will just lead to increases in the implicit interest rate built into these loan-
annuities. In any case, I do not see the reverse mortgage market as providing any immediate solution to the current housing market
crisis. In the longer term, removing any obstacles in the reverse mortgage market might well help retiring Americans live off their
housing equityat least what is left of it.
5. Expanding Fannie and Freddie Loan limits. This again seems like a good provision of the legislation. (I disagree) It allows a larger
number of loans to meet the definition of "conforming" and to access the assumed lower interest rates of such loan pools.
Unfortunately it neglects how financial markets are likely to respond. Larger loans that are securitized into the conforming loan pool
may well dilute the credit quality of the entire poolif in fact they are more risky. Smart investors will easily be able to obtain data on
(for example) average loan size and simply not pay as much for conforming pools with higher average loan size. Hence it might lower
(a bit) rates for larger loans, but raise (a bit) rates for smaller loans.
6. Fannie and Freddie Rescue. This one feature is hugely importantat least at this time in the housing market. Let me say that there is
some uncertainty in academic research over how much the expansion of GSE-backed securitization has actually lowered mortgage
interest rates in the last three decades. There seems to be little doubt however that it has expanded the flow of credit to more
households, and eased underwriting. In the long run, if Fannie and Freddie were to fade away it is likely that private markets would at
least partially take their place, with the financial system perhaps reverting a bit to the structure it had prior to 1980. In the short run,
however, a default by Freddie and Fannie would throw mortgage markets into temporary turmoil. This in turn could drive the already
stressed housing market into a state of depression. (I agree 100%)
What the current housing market needs is more sales, more transactions and a return of liquidity with normal moving/mobility. This,
coupled with continued low new construction, will reduce the inventory of unsold units and allow prices to stabilize and then recover.
The mortgage market turmoil that would result from a Fannie and Freddie default would make mortgages more difficult to obtain,
reduce sales further, expand the unsold inventory and drive prices ever more downward. (I agree. Prices must come down in most
areas to affordable ranges before sales will return to normal. Appreciation over the past 5+ years was based on artificial
demand created by the lending industry's creative financing. Now home prices are reverting back to the mean.)
In times of financial crisis, governments around the world time and time again have used their central banks to provide liquidity and to
help stabilize asset prices. I regard the F&F bailout as an extension of this policy. After housing market stability is achieved, we can all
re-examine the question of whether and how the GSE might be better restructured. This is the one essential feature in a bill filled with
many superfluous provisions. (The trillion dollar question is what is the solution? Only the shadow banking system knows!
Reality is that there are no easy solutions to this mess.)
Mother of All Bailout Message

(From one of the few honest politicians with a clue.)
Click here to play.
The trillion dollar bailout question is how did these bloated, crisis ridden, scandalous and inefficient pair of quasi government/public
companies, that are so important to the global and domestic economy, produce such ridiculous losses and get bailed out?
Here are a couple of facts to chew on:

* Phony Mae and Fraudy Mac have spent $200 million on lobbying and campaign contributions.
* They have access to powerful lobbyists in Washington DC.
* Fannie Mae acquired twice as many homes through foreclosure in the first quarter as it sold, regulatory filings show.
* Unsold properties may weigh on the company's stock, which lost almost half its value since June 5, said Moshe Orenbuch, managing
director of equity research at Credit Suisse Group AG in New York.
* Late payments on the company's home loans, a harbinger of foreclosures, almost doubled in the past year.
* Together, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two biggest U.S. mortgage finance companies, owned a record $6.9 billion of foreclosed
homes on March 31, compared with $8.56 billion held by all 8,500 U.S. commercial banks and savings and loans. Foreclosed houses sell at
an average discount of about 20 percent, according to economists Ethan Harris and Michelle Meyer at New York-based Lehman Brothers
Holdings Inc. At that rate, the two mortgage companies stand to lose $1.39 billion on the foreclosed houses they currently own.
Source:bloomberg.com
All I know is that there is no way that Phony and Fraudy get so large and mismanaged without the governments help. The reality is that
their combined liabilities are approximately $5 trillion, which is more than half the U.S. National Debt of $9 trillion. Can you say Holy
Shizzle! I would imagine almost everyone in DC has had their hand in this cookie jar for years. Promote the growth of the housing industry
via the mantra Every American deserves a home and earn some serious grease in the form of political contributions. That is how DC
works. If I were lying than why in The Big Guy in the Skys Name would Congress propose FHA, Phony and Fraudy take on more risk
during the worst housing recession since the Great Depression by proposing to do such things as increasing loan limits to $625,000? They
want to do this in the segment of the housing industry which is the most overpriced with the most risk and most downside potential and then
put their deflationary portfolios on the Feds balance sheet? It is sheer madness! The Fed should only accept safe assets not deflationary
ones.
There is a reason the Federal Reserve and Treasury Dept. are now backing our dollars with junk paper from Phony and Fraudy. The reason
that this dysfunctional fraternity of politicians and Wall Street financiers are pushing the bailout is that countries such as Japan, China and
Russia hold a large portion of the Phony and Fraudy toxic debt. China clearly got bamboozled by the Wall Street shucksters and holds more
Fraudy and Phony toxic debt than anyone in the world according to the NY Times Chart below. What is ironic is that China is supposedly a
communist country and currently is acting more democratic than the United States which is supposed to be democratic and is acting more
communist or socialist.
What do you think happens if we piss these three countries off along with some others and let Phony and Fraudy fail? I bet they would start
selling Treasuries like it is going out of style because they would lose faith in the US AAA credit rating and be a little upset about their
investment in Phony and Fraudy. This scenario would cause bond prices to collapse which would mean interest rates would skyrocket. The
housing and banking industry needs this to play out like they need more writedowns and inventory right now. Paulson, The Treasury
Secretary looks scared to death right now and he should be. It's economic warfare going on right now and we are losing the battle.
So there you go. Phony Mae and Fraudy Mac have huge implications on the future direction of home prices and the economy regardless of
what our fearless try to do. So much damage is already done. Since they were not proactive enough to fix it earlier they are all now boxed in
without a reasonalble solution accept put the government in more debt and delay Judgement Day by borrowing time and of course more
money. The result is that this is not a great banking environment when you have loans on your books that are highly leveraged assets which
are losing value all over this country. When you add in the fact that the average American is tapped out and in debt, rates are going up, credit
is less available and more expensive due to higher risk and home prices are still overpriced in many markets then we have some serious
issues to deal with in Bailout Nation. How could I forget that the next president, Obama or McCain, are very weak on the economy. Just
great huh?
One issue of concern is the national real inventory numbers that we actually know about.
There are 18.6 million vacant homes in the U.S.--a staggeringly large number. Here is the Census report: CENSUS BUREAU REPORTS ON
RESIDENTIAL VACANCIES AND HOMEOWNERSHIP
* There were an estimated 129.4 million housing units in the United States in the first quarter 2008. Approximately 110.8 million housing
units were occupied: 75.1 million by owners and 35.7 million by renters.
* Of the 2.1 million increase in total housing units, 1.1 million were occupied and 1.0 million were vacant units. Of the 1.0 million additional
vacant units from last year, only 20.5 percent were for rent or for sale.
* The number of total vacant housing units, 18.6 million, was higher than the estimated number in first quarter 2007. Of these vacant
housing units, 13.9 million were for year-round use and 4.7 million were for seasonal use. Approximately 4.1 million of the year-round
vacant units were for rent, 2.3 million were for sale only, and the remaining 7.5 million units were vacant for a variety of other reasons.
*There are a number of interesting facts presented here. Only 4.7 million of the vacant dwellings were "seasonal," i.e. second-
homes/cabins; 14 million homes are available right now for occupancy.
* A million new units sit empty, and only 20% are for sale. We can presume the builders/developers/lenders are hanging on to the other
800,000 empty new homes, hoping and praying that some miraculous turn-around in the housing market will enable them to sell a million
vacant homes in the near future.
* Even as the "downturn" worsens, over a million new dwellings will be constructed and added to the inventory this year. So let's just
round up and say there are (or soon will be) 20 million vacant residences in the U.S.
With an average household size of about 2.5 people, we have room for 50 million more citizens without building a single additional home. If
we subtract the 5 million vacation homes, that leaves 15 million vacant dwellings
Source:oftowinds.com
The unfortunate consequence of the "Lending Bubble" is it creates tremendous opportunity in the REO, short sales and the foreclosure
market at the expense of financially troubled homeowners. Some of the top real estate agents, with regards to volume, in Charleston are
selling some sort of distressed property right now. The Charleston foreclosure market is growing and let's all hope it does not become as
large as certain parts of California and Florida. I do not feel it will but I am worried about how much bigger it grows because there is
a "shadow inventory" in Charleston that does not show up in the MLS stats. It takes a great deal of research to dig up the homes/condos not
listed, under construction and are proposed construction. It is a very scary number in certain areas depending on the segment of the market
you are dealing with. I am very concerned about the $500,000+ market because of the inventory and high jumbo loan rates. I am just not
sure how many buyers can truly afford these homes by using normal fixed mortgage products in an inflationary and stricter
lending environment. Time will tell.
There are very good deals out there if you look. I would highly recommend that if you come across a good deal in this market that you are
certain is priced correctly to pull the trigger. I say this because I feel we are exiting what has been a 20 year cycle of low interest rates and
we all know the impact interest rates have on the price and financing of homes. I plan on addressing and monitoring this in future issues.
I will conclude with a special index put together by Mike Morgan who works in Hurricane Housing Central in the sunny state of Florida.
(F x 4)/ H + I(3) = Not a Happy Ending
There are four "Fs" including fraud, fantasy, fiction and foreclosure. The first three are the foundation for the fourth "F." Enough said. We
take this and divide by H + I, which represents Hype and Incompetence. Okay, so you dont need a discussion about the four "Fs" or the
Hype. But let me share a bit about just how severe the "I" factor is of total, absolute, and beyond any belief . . . Incompetence
Consulting Services with The CMR
If you want to combat the Incompetence Factor (Which is Rampant!) and need consulting buying, selling or a Market Analysis Study I am
available. I DO NOT charge based on commission and work on a Fee Basis Only. I charge $250 per hour or you can purchase a block of 25
hours ($200 per hour) for $5000. Larger projects need to email me a Request for Proposal (RFP) to brundbaken@comcast.net and I can
quote you a fee based on the job. If you end up buying a home with my 25 hours (As an example) and the commission is $20,000 I will turn
over the difference in the commission minus what my firm takes. This means you would come out ahead $15,000 minus my firm's take if a
transaction occurs. I work on the basis of time NOT commission. I am happy to work with other agents if they want or need it. I will only
work with a certain number of clients at one time because my time is limited due to other projects. I will not use commission with my future
Registered Investement Advisory Firm so why should I use it in Real Estate? I feel it is important to remain consistent with my clients on all
consulting arrangements.
WARNING!
Housing Cartoons
Trendocracy
In order to have an easier way to express my opinion and publish articles of interest of I have started a new blog called Trendocracy. This
will allow me to open up the forum of discussion to other areas besides the local housing market I am familiar with such as the stock market,
appraisals and financing. I have a very active mind and this new blog will allow me to express my opinion a little bit easier in the future. I
will also be able to direct you to some very interesting websites and authors who help me get a better picture of the current trends in the
market.
The website for the new blog is:

http://trendocracy.blogspot.com/
Please go take a look and I hope you enjoy it!
back to top
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Charleston Market Report in the News
Please click here to view the Quarterly and Monthly Newsletters below.
Quarterly Commentary - The Charleston Market Report
Q4 2007- Appraisals, Risk, Renters Market, The Oversold Stock Market and Predictions for 2008
Q3 2007 - Old Charleston and Inflation (The Secret Tax)
Q2 2007 - "Mr. Gordon Gekko Economy, You Have Credit Cancer and It's Spreading."
Q1 2007 - What is your most important asset DEBT NATION?
Q4 2006 - Reality
Q3 2006- Sellers are from Mars and Buyers are from Venus
Monthly Commentary - The Charleston Market Report
June 2008 - Welcome Back, The "Denise Richards" Economy, Bond Prices, Black Gold
May 2008 - I am NOT an Economist, Bottom Callers, Fannie Mae and Oil
March 2008 - The Fed, Oil and An Anatomy of a Collapse: Bear Stearns
February 2008 - Predictiong Mortgage Rates and The Oversold Stock Market
December 2007 - Save What We Can!
November 2007 - Oh My Head I Don't Even Remember The Party Last Night. Ooh! Who Is This?
September 2007 - The Bernanke Dollar Put and Interest Rate Call
September 2007 - Happy Anniversary CMR and The Hard Landing
August 2007 - The "Ponzi" Market and Countrywide
July 2007 - Spring Housing Slump
June 2007 - The Cigar Factory
May 2007 - Sector Rotation in Real Estate
April 2007 - 5 Things to Stay Ahead of the Pack
March 2007 - Lenders NOT Girls Gone Wild
March 1, 2007 - Market Meltdown
The Charleston Market Report in the News
Live 5 News
Foreclosure Fears 3/6/2007
The Post and Courier
Shadow Inventory May Impact Area Home Sales 8/9/2008 NEW!
Area Housing Market Seeks Sales, Price Bounce 1/12/2008
Goose Creek the Newest Hot Housing Market 6/9/2007
Trends Tracker: May be good time to 'buy low' 2/3/2007
Outlook Lookout 1/13/2007 1/13/2007
Reports Differ on Area Housing Market Outlook 11/18/2006
Report Analyzes Area Housing Market 9/16/2006
As 'for sale' signs linger, some worry 9/14/2006
The Charleston Regional Business Journal
Expected Upswing in Real Estate Not Here Yet 7/21/2008 NEW!
Mortgage Meltdown Causes Glut of Short Sale Homes 7/21/2008 NEW!
The Bigger They Are, The Harder They Fall 7/21/2008 NEW!
Credit crunch delays housing market upswing 11/12/2007
Tri-County Foreclosures Rise in 2nd Quarter 8/8/2007
Slow Housing Market Not Affecting All Regions Equally 5/14/2007
Real Estate Firm Reports Positive Sales Results 2/7/2007
Local Market Ready to Emerge from 'Tepid' Times 1/22/2007
Charleston Home Market Monthly Report Released 1/10/2007
Real Estate Monthly Report Reveals Slower Sales 12/8/2006
Matrix - Interpreting the Real Estate Economy
Recent Blogs
The Holy City
"Nothin could be finer than livin in Carolina!"
Please feel free to send comments and/or suggestions to brundbaken@comcast.net. I hope this information helps!
brad
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Introduction
The Charleston Market Report

The Charleston Market Report focuses on market conditions for the following local areas:
1. The Tri-County area

2. The three Charleston MLS counties: Charleston, Berkeley and Dorchester
3. The various sub areas in each of the three counties, which includes:
l Daniel Island
l Downtown (Below the Crosstown)
l Edisto Beach
l Folly Beach
l Goose Creek
l James Island
l Johns Island
l Kiawah & Seabrook Island
l Mount Pleasant
l North Charleston
l Sullivans Island/Isle of Palms/Dunes West
l Summerville
l West Ashley
Leading Indicators
The five main leading indicators that are used to determine overall market conditions of the Tri-County area are:
1. Existing Home Sales

2. New Building Permits
3. Foreclosures
4. Monthly Inventory Ratio
5. Interest Rates
In order to identify trends in the real estate market it is important to measure past data with current data. Once we know which way the leading indicators are going, we
should be able to identify the major trends in the market. In order to analyze our leading indicators, I use monthly data to help identify market momentum for tracking real
estate trends. The momentum measures the speed at which the trends can change in the market.
How to interpret the market momentum charts.
When the trend reading crosses the 0 line, this means the trend of this Leading Indicator has changed from a downtrend to an uptrend or vice versa. Thus, as the 0 line is
approached there is a strong possibility that you will be able to anticipate a real estate market trend reversal.
Trend:The general direction (up or down) in which a Leading Indicator is moving.
Moving Average (MA): This calculation gives you a monthly average for the Leading Indicator data over a certain period of time. The MA is important because it smoothes
out month to month data and fluctuations and gives you a very good sense of market direction.
Market Momentum:Measures whether the trend is getting stronger or weaker.
Trend Identification: A series of steps must be taken in order to create the Leading Indicators.
1. Gather the monthly data.

2. Calculate the 12 month moving average for each indicator.
3. Calculate the momentum reading for each indicator.
4. Analyze the data.
The data in the Market Matrix used for the counties and local areas are:
1. Monthly Sales The number of sales per month.

2. Average List Price The average price the property is listed for in the MLS.
3. Average Sales Price The average price agreed upon by the buyer and seller.
4. % Difference between List and Sales Price If for example a condo is listed for $100,000 and sells for $95,000 then the % Difference would be 95%.
5. Average Days on Market (DOM) -How many days it takes to sell a house, townhouse or condo.
6. Current Inventory The number of houses, townhomes or condos on the market that have NOT sold.
7. Months Inventory- This reflects how many months it would take to sell out of inventory at the current months rate of sale.
The purpose of the Charleston Market Report is to give you the quarterly market conditions for the Charleston area residential real estate market. Although some data
reported tends to be leading indicators of the market, the Charleston Market Report does not forecast what the market will do.
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Leading Indicators - 2nd Quarter 2008
Leading Indicators Matrix

Q2 2008
Leading Indicators Market Momentum Reading
Existing Residential Sales Unfavorable
New Building Permits Unfavorable
Foreclosures Unfavorable
Monthly Inventory Ratio Unfavorable
Interest Rates Favorable
Existing Residential Sales

This is one of the best leading indicators of real estate price trends. Buyers create the demand for housing that is directly linked with price movement. When this trend increases
it demonstrates more buyers coming into the market and prices tend to rise. Sellers do play a role in the transaction of a house or condo, but the buyer plays the dominate role
because they must be willing to pay the price the seller is asking.
Source: Charleston-Trident MLS
The existing residential sales indicator is one of the most important indicators. It still shows no sign of bottoming out. Just when you think it can not worse it does. This current
housing downturn has already eclipsed the 1990-91 recesson. Anyone who was in Charleston real estate in 90-91 can tell you that was a brutal market. The housing recession
we are in right now will go down as the worst ever in my opinion.
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New Building Permits

Real estate construction is one of the largest industries in the United States. Homebuilders are very aware of the demand for housing in the areas of the country where they offer
their services. Historically, the trend in building permits will drop before the economy weakens.
It should also be noted that local municipalities can have an effect on this indicator. The town of Mount Pleasant is a great example of government manipulating the market that
reduces the number of building permits allowed which can cause housing prices to escalate quicker than normal. Inventory gets scarcer as demand increases. The end result was a
significant increase in housing prices once the town decided to control the number of building permits allowed each year.
Finally, it appears the local and national builders have slowed down pulling permits due to increased inventory and the local real estate slowdown. It will be interesting to see if
Building Permits improves over the next couple of quarters. Obviously builder confidence is way down as shown in the chart below.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Census and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
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Foreclosures
Tri County Foreclosure Numbers
BerkeleyCounty
Three-month trend for repossessions
June: 38 May: 45 April: 46
Total through Q2 2008: 213

===============================
CharlestonCounty

================================
DorchesterCounty

A foreclosure sale occurs when a mortgage lender is forced to sell a borrowers property in order to pay off the mortgage obligation that is in default. When foreclosures are
rising, it is a strong signal that the economy is weakening and individuals are having serious financial troubles. Foreclosure sales are likely to be a lagging indicator at market
peaks and they may be a coincidental indicator at market bottoms.
Quarterly Foreclosure Data
FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY UP 14 PERCENT IN SECOND QUARTER ACCORDING TO REALTYTRAC U.S. FORECLOSURE MARKET REPORT
Activity Increases 121 Percent From Q2 2007
95 of 100 Largest Metro Areas Post Annual Increases
IRVINE, Calif. July 25, 2008 RealtyTrac (www.realtytrac.com), the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its Q2 2008 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report,
which shows foreclosure filings were reported on 739,714 U.S. properties during the second quarter, a nearly 14 percent increase from the previous quarter and a 121 percent increase
from the second quarter of 2007. The report also shows that one in every 171 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing during the quarter.
RealtyTrac publishes the largest and most comprehensive national database of foreclosure and bank-owned properties, with over 1.5 million properties from over 2,200 counties across the
country, and is the foreclosure data provider to MSN Real Estate, Yahoo! Real Estate and The Wall Street Journals Real Estate Journal.
Although much of the fallout from foreclosures is being driven by rampant activity in a few states, such as Nevada, California, Florida, Ohio, Arizona and Michigan, most areas of the
country are seeing at least some increase in foreclosure activity, said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. Forty-eight of 50 states and 95 out of the nations 100
largest metro areas experienced year-over-year increases in foreclosure activity in the second quarter.
Bank repossessions, or REOs, accounted for 30 percent of total foreclosure activity in the second quarter, up from 24 percent of the total in the first quarter, Saccacio continued. This
shift in the distribution of activity indicates that there is a progression toward purging the problem loans out of the system at which point the housing market can regain some sense of
normalcy. Of course if another surge in defaults occurs, which could well happen later this year, it would refill the foreclosure pipeline and prolong the recovery.
Nevada, California, Arizona post top state foreclosure rates
One in every 43 Nevada households received a foreclosure filing during the second quarter, the highest foreclosure rate among the states and nearly four times the national average.
Foreclosure filings were reported on 24,657 Nevada properties during the quarter, up 26 percent from the previous quarter and up 147 percent from the first quarter of 2007.
Foreclosure filings were reported on 202,599 California properties during the second quarter, the highest total among the states and a rate of one in every 65 households the nations
second highest state foreclosure rate. Foreclosure activity in California increased 19 percent from the previous quarter and was nearly three times the level reported in the second quarter
of 2007.
With one in every 70 households receiving a foreclosure filing, Arizona posted the nations third highest state foreclosure rate in the second quarter. Foreclosure filings were reported on
37,230 Arizona properties during the quarter, up nearly 36 percent from the previous quarter and close to four times the number reported in the second quarter of 2007.
Florida documented the nations fourth highest state foreclosure rate in the second quarter, with one in every 78 households receiving a foreclosure filing during the quarter more than
twice the national average. Foreclosure filings were reported on 109,433 Florida properties during the quarter, the second highest total of any state and an increase of nearly 25 percent
from the previous quarter.
Despite a nearly 15 percent quarterly decrease in foreclosure activity in the second quarter, Colorado posted the nations fifth highest state foreclosure rate one in every 129 Colorado
households received a foreclosure filing during the quarter. Second quarter foreclosure activity in Colorado was still up more than 50 percent from the second quarter of 2007.
Foreclosure filings were reported on 37,689 Ohio properties in the second quarter, the third highest total among the states and a rate of one in every 134 households the nations sixth
highest state foreclosure rate. Second quarter foreclosure activity in Ohio was up nearly 21 percent from the previous quarter and nearly 27 percent from the second quarter of 2007.
With foreclosure filings reported on 32,868 properties during the second quarter, Michigan notched the fifth highest total among the states. One in every 137 Michigan households received
a foreclosure filing during the quarter, the nations seventh highest state foreclosure rate.
Other states with foreclosure rates among the top 10 were Georgia, Massachusetts and Illinois.
Top 20 metro areas include Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami, San Diego and Detroit
The Q2 2008 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report also ranks the nations 100 largest metropolitan areas by foreclosure rate. California and Florida metro areas accounted for 16 of the top 20
metro foreclosure rates, with the California cities of Stockton and Riverside-San Bernardino taking the No. 1 and No. 2 spots.
One in every 25 Stockton households received a foreclosure filing during the quarter nearly seven times the national average and one in every 32 Riverside-San Bernardino
households received a foreclosure filing during the quarter more than five times the national average. Other California metro areas in the top 20 were Bakersfield at No. 4, Sacramento
at No. 5, Oakland at No. 8, Fresno at No. 9, San Diego at No. 11, Orange at No. 15, Ventura at No. 16 and Los Angeles at No. 19.
Las Vegas documented the third highest metro foreclosure rate, with one in every 35 households receiving a foreclosure filing during the quarter. Foreclosure filings were reported on
21,742 Las Vegas metro properties during the quarter, up more than 25 percent from the previous quarter and up nearly 144 percent from the second quarter of 2007.
The highest ranked Florida metro area was Fort Lauderdale, which ranked No. 6 with one in every 51 households receiving a foreclosure filing during the quarter. Other Florida metro areas
in the top 20 were Miami at No. 10, Orlando at No. 13, Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice at No. 14, Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater at No. 17 and Palm Beach at No. 18.
One in every 51 households in the Phoenix metro area received a foreclosure filing during the quarter, ranking No. 7; one in every 66 households in the Detroit metro area received a
foreclosure filing during the quarter, ranking No. 12; and one in every 91 households in the Atlanta metro area received a foreclosure filing during the quarter, ranking No. 20.
Report methodology
The RealtyTrac Monthly U.S. Foreclosure Market Report provides a count of the total number of properties with at least one foreclosure filing reported during the quarter broken out by
type of filing at the state and national level. Data is also available at the individual county level. RealtyTracs report incorporates documents filed in all three phases of foreclosure: Default
Notice of Default (NOD) and Lis Pendens (LIS); Auction Notice of Trustee Sale and Notice of Foreclosure Sale (NTS and NFS); and Real Estate Owned, or REO properties (that have
been foreclosed on and repurchased by a bank). If more than one foreclosure document is filed against a property during the quarter only the most recent filing is counted in the report.
The report also checks if the same type of document was filed against a property in a previous quarter. If so, and if that previous filing occurred within the estimated foreclosure timeframe
for the state the property is in, the report does not count the property in the current month.
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Monthly Inventory Ratio
This ratio is calculated by dividing sold monthly listings by new active monthly listings. In most cases demand is more sensitive to change than supply. Supply is more sluggish
since it takes time to build new homes. On the other hand it is more difficult to withdraw supply already on the market. As a consequence, markets cycle between oversupply,
equilibrium and shortage. Typically the changes in cycles can take years. Inventory in a buyers market tends to be high because the market is oversupplied with homes based on
demand. Inventory in a sellers market is low because of the scarcity of homes available based on demand. As this ratio increases it signals an increase in inventory levels and a
decrease in demand. This can ultimately lead to housing prices to stagnate and possibly fall if the trend lasts long enough. This occurs because sellers will become more
motivated to sell their property the longer it stays on the market.
The inventory ratio moving avarage has improved a little bit. The reason is that total inventory levels have gone down a bit since last year. This is probably due to many sellers
deciding against trying to sell their home and many have placed these homes on the rental market instead.
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Interest Rates
Interest Rates play an important role on the effect of housing prices and demand. The higher rates climb the more expensive monthly payments become for the buyer. When rates
drop the buyer can usually qualify for a more expensive home. Interest rates are driven by national and global economic forces. The trends in interest rates are mainly used as a
gauge in measuring the potential strength or weakness that may be developing in the market.
Source: The Federal Reserve
Hey some good news!!!!! It is still a great time to refinance (if the bank will let you) or pull the trigger if you are buying a house. I am shocked that rates have remained this
low for so long. Remember that The Fed cutting the Fed Funds Rates has no impact on mortgage rates. You do know that right? The Fed Funds Rate has more of an impact on
variable second mortgages tied to the prime rate.
* The CMR will continue to monitor the TNX and it will break the trendline at 4.4%. I believe this will eventually happen since we are exiting a 20 year cycle of low interest
rates.
* A particular concern is the increase in rates of Jumbo Mortgages. This presents a challenge to the luxury market in the Tri-County as financing gets more expensive and
mortgage availability has been much tighter.
* Due to the weakened state of the economy The CMR feels that The Fed will be on hold for the next couple of months with regards to short term interest rates.
Current Yield Curve
(Source:Martin Capital Advisors)
What is the Yield Curve?
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Market Matrix
Residential Highlights
* The average sales price dropped 6.6% in the Tri-County region compared to the prior year quater.
* Q2 2008 sales are down significantly at -33.5% compared to the prior year quarter.
* Due to economic weakness and tighter credit conditions sales have slowed by 33.5% and inventory has grown 11.3% since last year in the Tri-County Region.
* Days on market has also increased by 31% since Q2 2007.
* The Tri-County Market spring quarter did not live up to expectations of many local realtors and experts. Many are being quoted that it will get better next year. Based on
what? Higher interest rates and a economy in a recession?
* As inventory continues to rise the % Diff Sales to List Price has increased the most in Charleston County. This increase in the Discount can be attributed to buyers getting
better deals on the higher end of the market which encompasses Charleston County in such areas as Mount Pleasant and the beaches.
* As I have stated before there is a "shadow inventory" that is not transparent in the MLS statistics that is very worrisome. I have seen months inventory in the years after
completing Market Analysis Studies for developers.
* The CMR is very concerned about the high end of the residential market. These are the most risky loans to banks and inventory continues to build to extremely high levels.
* The CMR predicts the average price per square foot will continue to decrease in many areas until the credit markets get back to normal. It is important to remember that many
upgrades, discounts and closing costs being paid by sellers often do NOT show up in the Market Matrix. Real estate often has visibility issues with regards to the true price
trends. An appraisal or Market Analysis should provided more transparency if done properly.
Q2 2008
Residential Market Matrix

2nd Quarter 2008
** If there are limited sales in a certain area some of the data may be skewed.** The data below is an average for each quarter.
Please be aware that this info is pulled from the CTAR MLS. It does not include FSBOs or sales or listings that are not entered into the MLS by agents.
Tri-County CurrentQtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Yr Qtr

Average List Price $333,484 8.6% $307,163 -5.0% $339,011
Average Sales Price $316,822 8.1% $293,019 -6.6% $339,113
% Diff Sales to List Price 5.25% 4.82% 3.49%
Average Days on Market 102 -1.5% 103 31.2% 78
Average Monthly Sales 632 20.1% 527 -33.5% 889
Current Inventory 7487 8.2% 6919 11.3% 6932
Months Inventory 11.9 13.2 7.9
Berkeley County Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Yr Qtr
Average List Price $250,277 15.0% $217,657 3.7% $241,355
Average Sales Price $240,352 13.6% $211,638 1.7% $236,437
Average Days on Market 86 1.5% 85 36.0% 63
Average Monthly Sales 159 -3.8% 166 -29.3% 240
Charleston County Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Yr Qtr
Dorchester County Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Yr Qtr
Average List Price $216,111 -1.0% $218,281 -8.1% $233,245
Average Sales Price $210,729 -0.6% $211,987 -8.5% $228,772
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Townhouse/Condo Highlights
* Tri-County prices showed gains mainly due to 86 transactions in The Village on Wild Dunes that averaged $877k per condo. These high end transactions have had a
positive effect on Tri-County and Charleston County sales price.
* As sales have decreased by 42.8% from the prior year quarter the Months Inventory for the Tri-County has increased from 11.1 to 18.3 in one year.
* Berkely County has seen a 29% drop in the average sales price since Q2 2007. DOM has increased 46% and monthly sales are down 23.5% which has caused Months
Inventory to increase from 8.9 to 18 months of inventroy.
* Dorchester County has seen a 16% decrease in average monthly sales from the prior year quarte, a 53% increase in DOM and a 23% increase in inventory.
* There is currently an "oversupply" of condos and townhomes in every area tracked in the Market Matrix.
Q2 2008
Townhouse/Condo Market
2nd Quarter 2008
It is important to realize that some of the inventory numbers for condos/townhouses are not completely accurate. The real esate agents who represent new
developments or conversions often do not put all of the active inventory into the MLS. In other words, some of these inventory numbers are actually worse than they
appear in this matrix.
Tri-County Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Yr Qtr

Average List Price $323,669 -12.2% $368,584 34.3% $241,021
Average Sales Price $311,615 -12.6% $356,444 34.2% $235,047
Current Inventory 3004 -0.4% 3017 -5.3% 3171
Berkeley County Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Yr Qtr
Average List Price $178,369 -26.9% $244,141 -26.7% $243,452
Average Sales Price $172,511 -27.4% $237,611 -28.7% $241,910
Average Monthly Sales 25 -23.5% 33 -23.5% 52
Charleston County Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Yr Qtr
Average List Price $377,063 -10.4% $420,774 51.7% $248,560
Average Sales Price $362,065 -10.9% $406,152 49.9% $241,591
Dorchester County Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Yr Qtr
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US County Appreciation
1 Quarter
1 Year
5 Years
10 Years
20 Years
30 Years
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Famous Quotes
"There is Nothing to Fear but Risk Itself."
Brad Rundbaken 2007
"A sound banker, alas, is not one who foresees danger and avoids it, but one who, when he is ruined, is ruined in a conventional way along with his fellows, so that no
one can really blame him.
"John Maynard Keynes, "Consequences to the Banks of a Collapse in Money Values", 1931
"Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others."

John Maynard Keynes
"Only government can take perfectly good paper, cover it with perfectly good ink and make the combination worthless."
Milton Friedman
"Any informed borrower is simply less vulnerable to fraud and abuse."

Alan Greenspan
"Homeownership has become a vehicle for borrowing and leveraging as much as a source of financial security."
Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, Feb 11, 2005
"Man is an animal that makes bargains: no other animal does this - no dog exchanges bones with another."
Adam Smith
It is a comfortable feeling to know that you stand on your own ground. Land is about the
only thing that cant fly away.
-Anthony Trollope (1815-1882)
Landlords grow rich in their sleep.

-John Stuart Mill (1806-1873)
Land increases more rapidly in value at the centers and about the circumference of cities.
-William E. Harmon, Noted realty operator
Buying real estate is not only the best way, the quickest way, the safest way, but the only
way to become wealthy.
-Marshall Field (1835-1906)
The best investment on Earth is earth.

-Louis Glickman, American business executive
Buy on the fringe and wait. Buy land near a growing city! Buy real estate when other
people want to sell. Hold what you buy!
-John Jacob Astor (1763-1848)
Every person who invests in well-selected real estate in a growing section of a prosperous
community adopts the surest and safest method of becoming independent, for real estate is
the basis of wealth.
-Theodore Roosevelt (1858-1919)
Land monopoly is not only monopoly, but it is by far the greatest of monopolies; it is a
perpetual monopoly, and it is the mother of all other forms of monopoly.
-Winston Churchill (1874-1965)
Real estate cannot be lost or stolen, nor can it be carried away. Purchased with common
sense, paid for in full, and managed with reasonable care, it is about the safest investment in
the world.
-Franklin D. Roosevelt (1882-1945)
Real estate is an imperishable asset, ever increasing in value. It is the most solid security
that human ingenuity has devised. It is the basis of all security and about the only
indestructible security.
-Russell Sage
I have always liked real estate; farm land, pasture land, timber land and city property. I
have had experience with all of them. I guess I just naturally like the good Earth, the
foundation of all our wealth.
-Jesse H. Jones, former federal government financier
Buy real estate in areas where the path exists...and buy more real estate where there is no
path, but you can create your own.
-David Waronker
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Testimonials
These are a sample of the emails sent by subscribers and visitors that makes me proud to have created this website.
Probably the best speaker yet!

The speaker was excellent! His compilation and analysis of data will undoubtedly be helpful in the RE market.
Very good information.
That was the feedback from our mastermind members after hearing Brad Rundbaken, founder of www.charlestonmarketreport.com, speak at our July 22nd meeting.
Brad's expertise as a provider of real estate information and market research services to investors was very helpful in understanding what the Charleston real estate market is
currently doing....and what we could expect in the future.
Charleston Real Estate Investors Association
Brad,
I continue to express my appreciation for your visiting my MBA classes in Real Estate Finance/Investing at The Citadel. I have to tell you that, in my opinion, each of your
market reports is worthy of being published in academic/practitioner publications dealing with real estate investing. It is unfortunate (in my opinion) that only a portion of the
practitioners in the greater Charleston real estate market will take the time to thoroughly read and benefit from the multitude of valuable pieces of information that you present in
your quarterly report. The seasoned pros that read and study your report will surely gain a competitive advantage from subscribing to your (surprisingly) free report. My many
years as a consultant and expert witness in finance prompt me to suspect that some local and well-funded realty investors are probably paying handsome sums for consultant
studies providing information that pales in comparison to the Charleston Market Report information that you provide and analyze for free!
Thank you for providing the Charleston Market with valuable local real estate data and giving us your concise and candid assessment of local market trends and outlook. Before
I put my money in the Charleston market, I read your Charleston Market Report.
Best wishes,
Dr. Sam G. Berry

Visiting Professor of Finance
The Citadel
Brad,
My Real Estate Finance and Investment class and I again thank you for your many forms of support. Your visit to our class in The Citadel MBA program was most appreciated,
especially the valuable market information you brought us. All four of the project teams in the class made good use of The Charleston Market Report in their research; you were
quoted and referenced in their presentations and written reports. They particularly enjoyed hearing your perspective on studying the real estate market in ways similar to your
past studies of the stock markets. Your graphical analyses in the Report greatly aid in spotting the trends, turns and current status of the local real estate market. I can easily
foresee your market report becoming the most relied-upon information published in the area. You are researching and writing on a market - - not producing a sales piece.
We were also pleased to have you visit with us to be an observer as they presented their research projects of: (1) converting a 4-unit apartment site to a 2-unit, upscale condo
site, (2) locating and developing a subdivision, (3) renovating and selling a house, and (4) locating and developing a franchised motel. Your comments gave them useful
guidance which they were able to incorporate into their final, written reports.
I look forward to reading and using your report in my teaching and in my own investment activities in our Charleston area market. Best wishes for continued success,
Dr. Sam G. Berry

Visiting Professor of Finance
The Citadel
Hi, Brad.
I stumbled across your web site yesterday! It is awesome...a wealth of information. As they say frequently say at my job, "You Rock"! I honestly do love your web site and
your monthly newsletter/blog. The information is great! Keep up the great work.
I'm in the preliminary stages of getting an investment property in the Charleston area. I'm thinking a vacation rental that I can rent out part of the year, and use as second home
for myself, my family and friends the other parts of the year. Otherwise ,if the numbers don't work for this approach, I'd probably just do a regular rental property.
I'm trying to determine the average rental rates, occupancy rates for areas such as west ashley, james island, mt. pleasant, seabrook. Also, I'm trying to determine vacation rental
rates by the week and peak/off-peak seasons.
Would you happen to know of a web site or anything where I can find this information so that I can crunch some numbers (cash flow, depreciation, insurance, etc) to determine if
this is a good move for me?
Thanks,
Staci
Brad,
I have spent a great deal of time studying stock market trends and bottoms. So many times in my life I used my gut to buy or sell based on news or by comparing a stocks
current price to recent prices, only to have the price drop further. Next panic sets in. As you state, understanding trends is paramount. I am also convinced there is a "force"
that controls stock market bottoms. I am guessing there is not a "force" that controls real estate price bottoms so it would be best to determine a change in trend before buying.
My wife and I are interested in buying a condo in Myrtle Beach. My sister and her husband already own one there and have informed us of condos for sale. Last month one was
listed for $525k. Yesterday they called about one that is for sale for $475k. Just like my uniformed approach to the stock market, I am thinking these prices sound great based
on prices of a year ago. But I catch myself and wonder what data I could use to make a purchasing decision. Unlike the stock market, the real estate market does not have
simple stop losses. Which real estate indicators would tell me the price trend has bottomed or is reversing? I did an Internet search and came across your website. You are
using data to show real estate trends, I love it.
Thanks
Carl
Brad,
My name is RW from Summerville. I discovered your website about a week ago and I'm so glad that someone here in the tri-county area who works in the real estate biz decided
to pull their head up out of the sand and start telling the truth about the real estate market.
Add me to your list of anecdotes of buyers who are preferring to sit on the sidelines for now. I can wait until greedy sellers finally wake up to the fact their homes aren't
ACTUALLY worth 50 to 100 percent more than they were 3 years ago just because they slapped a coat of paint on the dining room and threw some pine straw in the flower
beds! The gold rush mentality has gotten just about everybody in this area forgetting what they learned in high school economics. The basic laws of supply and demand still
apply, even to the housing market. Your website captures these truths and presents them in a very thorough and convincing way.
My wife and I moved to the area because of a new job back in November of '05. At the time, everyone was telling us we had to buy a house immediately even if we hadn't sold
our previous home yet. My first impression was that homes were overpriced, and after some research I found that appreciation rates had been in the 20% range for the area for
the previous year. There were also 60,000 homes either under construction or planned for the next 5 years! I took a gamble and bucked what everyone here was telling me and
decided that I would rent a place until our old house sold.
I can't tell you how many heated arguments I started then by merely suggesting that 20% price appreciation cannot be sustained every year, even here in paradise. People really
seemed to take the suggestion personally. I heard all of the standard lines from coworkers, agents, and friends, "If you don't buy now, you'll never be able to afford a house
becasue the prices will continue to skyrocket," "All of the baby boomers are retiring to the coast, the local market will keep booming and you're going to miss out," "Interest
rates are still at historic lows but they're going up, you'd better buy now."
Well, our house finally sold in July. As a person completely relieved to have unloaded a house in a cooling market, I'm even more wary of buying now. The last thing I want to
do is sink all of our savings into a house that may be difficult to sell or, even worse, lose value in the next few years. We have a lease through March and I'm perfectly
comfortable sitting on the sidelines at least until then. Our proceeds are in a money market account earning interest, waiting for an opportunity to snatch up a "bargain."
I'm not rooting for a crash in prices. That's not good for anyone. I do plan to buy eventually. I'm just glad that the immutable laws of supply and demand have given some of us
buyers a chance to catch up to the affordability curve.
Again, thank you for your website. It puts all of the data in one place. I hope more people open their eyes and pay attention.
Thanks,
RW
Dear Brad,
It is great that there is finally a source for the real story in the real estate market in Charleston.
We have only lived in Mount Pleasant for a year now, but are finding the real estate market here to be incomprehensible. We are from Washington, DC, where the market is
very efficient. If your house is not priced correctly, you know it in about 10 days not 10 months.
For example, this is the only town where if your house doesnt sell in a few months, you raise the price!
Also, houses that agents are attempting to flip with a 10% profit in the space of weeks. Homeowners who bought less than a year ago attempting to sell at profits of 30-40%.
They are holding firm on their prices too! This is ongoing even in the face of bloated inventories and dropping sales.
How is it that this is the only place in the U.S. where people dont realize that the housing bubble is bursting. Dont they notice the months and months houses sit on the market
and the exploding inventory?
Also, we dont understand why only new houses seem to be selling. Isnt this counter to the usual trend in a housing slow down?
Your insights would be greatly appreciated. We are so confused and what to buy a larger home. We just cant stomach paying someone 35% more than they paid a year ago in a
declining market!
Regards,
CK
Brad,
This is T with Prudential, we spoke on the phone last week.
I just want to say congrats on sticking to your principles and your very thorough, and in my opinion, professional, response to what has been said and done by various parties in
our industry, since the article and the founding of your report.
I find your report and it's information very valuable in helping properly consult my real estate clients, whether it be to invest, buy for personal use, or sell,and I'm sure many feel
the same way. I know my clients want to hear market reality "as it is", and your report helps.
Good work, and I wish you the best, I'm pulling for you, your principles, and your report!
T
Dear Brad,
I wanted to write you and thank you for your very informative web page. My wife and I were looking at single family homes in the Mt. Pleasant area just this Labor Day
weekend. We're ready to leave Florida for all the obvious reasons and have narrowed our retirement area search to Mt. Pleasant, Hilton Head or the Asheville/Hendersonville
area.
I came across your web page after our last house hunting trip through a "google" search. Being a finance and economics guy, I appricate the effort and time it must of taken you
to compile all that data into such a user friendly format. Your charts verify everything I was telling my wife. I noticed many more spec houses and town houses, on the market
in Mt. Pleasant, compared to the other areas we looked into. It seemed every NEW house the real estate agent showed us was owned by someone she knew in the real estate
business and they were "motivated" to sell.
Since we are not in a hurry and Mt. Pleasant is our first choice, we are going to wait the market out and will be watching for your trends to turn favorable. We put a $590k offer
in on a "behind the gate" house that was listed for $690k, and the seller countered back at $660k. We told them, "No thanks." Two days ago, they sent us an email asking us
back in the game at $630k. We are still mulling it over.
I truly believe that your web page and some input from zillow.com saved us a nice chunk of change$$-keep up the great work! Thanks again.
Kindest Regards,
ME
Brad,
Just wanted to let you know, that I think your report is great. I can tell alot of hard work went into it. I have just moved from the New Jersey area and playing the wait game on
purchasing a home. When I first decided to move here I looked for a report like yours and couldn't find anything. I even called the Trident MLS system and they had no clue
what I was talking about. In NJ there is a company that produces a simular report to yours, except yours is better.
http://www.otteau.com/The_Otteau_Report/the_otteau_report.html
I included the link to compare. Thank you for this information and your hard work.
Connie
Brad:
After reading the apology by Atlantic Appraisals in todays business section, I had to go back and re-read the original articles. I guessed that the controversy would be about
the local housing market. When I read the articles a few days ago, I thought now there is somebody who understands the issue It was refreshing after reading all the mindless
drivel from local bankers and real estate agents that the housing market would keep going up forever. Sounds like the same hype with the stock market in 1999. You hit the
issue right on target. The run away, out of control mortgage industry is a large part of the problem, and I guess the appraisal industry are accomplices.
Keep up the good work.

Al
Brad,
I just recently moved to Mount Pleasant, I leased a brand new home with a short term lease. I sold my house in Delaware and moved here at the end of June.
I could see what was happening last Sept, so I put my house on the market, I luckily managed to sell and make a nice profit. I feel that I was one of the last to get out the door. I
have been coming to Charleston for 10 years because of a son at Charleston AFB. I am now a bubble sitter. I am retired, 67 years of age, a Business High School Teacher for 36
years in the state of New Jersey. Every indicator of the housing markets is available to everyone; all you have to do is read, but unfortunately todays society wants instant
everything. Everything you point out I have been aware of for the last year or more and you are entirely correct on the statements you made about the lending industry. The
number of adjustable rate mortgages coming due in 06 and 07 is in the trillions of dollars; there are going to be a lot of banks and lending institutions in the real estate business,
people don't know that the short term instruments are tied to short term rates; not the long bonds on a 30 year mortgage.
I am sitting waiting for the home prices to recede. Mount Pleasant seems to me the one that should have one of the largest declines due to the fact they went up the fastest and
will fall the fastest. i.e. Naples, San Diego, Florida in general. I feel this current market is going to last through 07. My realtor disagrees with my outlook but I find in general
from the local newspaper to local area governments all have their heads in the sand and are totally unaware of whats going on nationally.
Your site is very comprehensive and extremely well done. I am extremely happy to find your site to keep me informed; if you have any ideas on areas for me to look at I would
appreciate your views. I have a site that I follow every day, It is called thehousingbubbleblog.com very informative nationally. Being in the Business Area all my life and in a
family business I have been cursed with an extremely active mind, its going all the time and the current housing trend just increases its activity. It's extremely unfortunate that
you were fired for telling the truth about current market conditions but that seems to be the mindset here in this area, I have to keep biting my tongue all the time at what I see
and hear.
Sincerely
MM
Brad,
I know you spent months preparing this one. It is great! I am sending to a lot of my friends that will appreciate it!
Talk to you soon.
Patty
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About Brad Rundbaken
Brad Rundbaken is the founder of www.charlestonmarketreport.com, a provider of real estate information and market research services to investors.
Rundbaken attended the College of Charleston on a soccer and academic scholarship where he earned a Bachelor of Science degree, with a major in Business Administration,
and minors in Economics and Intermodal Transportation.
Since graduating from college Rundbaken has been fascinated with the macro and microeconomic influences of supply and demand on the economy, real estate market, and the
stock market. During his investment career with Raymond James Financial Services and Wachovia Securities Private Client Group, he realized that to much emphasis was
placed on investing by only using a companys earnings, which sometimes were based on unrealistic and inaccurate data. In response, he became very interested in how to
implement the irrefutable law of supply and demand to provide a customized tactical allocation strategy for his clients portfolios and retirement plans. During his career as a
Financial Consultant he spent years studying and using a unique money management style of investing focused on risk management called Point and Figure Technical Analysis.
He has completed the Dorsey Wright & Associates Broker Institute and the Advanced Broker Institute which specializes in the applications of Point & Figure Technical
Analysis.
Rundbaken is a Principal and Guarantor with Diversified Resource Group, LLC , a California corporation with headquarters in Sacramento, CA. Rundbaken is the Founder of Charleston
Market Report, LLC and is currently a real estate agent with ERA Tides Realty located in Charleston, SC. He is also a former appraiser.
He currently holds a South Carolina Real Estate License, Series 7, 63 and 65 securities licenses and is a CCIM Candidate. Currently, he does not manage investment (securities)
accounts for clients.
Born and raised in Charleston, South Carolina, Rundbaken enjoys soccer, jet skiing, kite surfing, boating, golf, snow skiing, exercising, traveling and reading.
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Resources
Links
Web Links
Charleston
Charleston.net
Charleston County
Berkeley County
Dorchester County
Council of Goverments
Convention & Visitors Bureau
Charleston Regional Business Journal
Charleston City Paper
National Residential
Matrix
Bankrate Blog
CNN/Money Real Estate
Housing.com
NAR in the News
National Association of Realtors
RealEstate Journal
The Housing Bubble
National Commercial
CCIM
The Slatin Report
Appraisals
Soapbox Blog
The Appraisal Institute
The SC Chapter of the Appraisal Institute
Miller Samuel
Wall Street
Bloomberg
Dorsey Wright & Associates
PIMCO (US)
Economics
Calculated Risk
Econbrowser
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The Federal Reserve
Mortgage & Finance

RealtyTrac
Foreclosure Pulse
Lenderama
The Mortgage Reports
Mortgage Daily News
Architecture
Architecture Record
Old House Journal
Research Tools
Housing Tracker
Statemaster
Zillow
OFHEO
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Legal Disclaimer
Disclaimers and Acknowledgements

The research done to gather the data in the Charleston Real Estate Market Report involves examining thousands of listings. With this much data inaccuracies will occur.
Care is taken in gathering and processing the data and information within this report is deemed reliable. IT IS NOT GUARANTEED. The real estate market is cyclical
and will have its ups and downs. Past performance cannot determine future performance. The purpose of the Charleston Real Estate Market Report is to educate you on
current and consistent market conditions by reporting leading market indicators with the support of traditional real estate data.
This information is offered with the understanding that the author is not engaged in rendering legal, tax or other professional services. If legal, tax or other expert
assistance is required, the services of a competent professional are recommended. This is a personal newsletter reflecting the opinions of its author. It is not a production
of my employer. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of anyone other than myself.
Investing in real estate is not a get-rich-quick scheme nor is there any guarantee you will make a profit. Every effort has been made to make this report as complete and
accurate as possible. However, there may be mistakes. Therefore, this report should be used only as a general guide and not as the ultimate source for making money in
real estate.
Charleston Market Report

843-297-2701
www.charlestonmarketreport.com
Copyright 2006-2008 The Charleston Market Report
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The Charleston Market Report - 700 Daniel Ellis Dr. #5205, Charleston, SC, 29412, United States

Q2 2008 Charleston Market Report

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Q2 2008 Charleston Market Report

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The Charleston Market Report

"An Analysis of Real Estate and Economic Trends"

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Diversified Resource Group, LLC

My Real Estate Attorney

2nd Quarter 2008

I hope everyone is enjoying the summer.

Please Watch and Get Outraged America!

Take A Load Off Fannie!

Click Here to Play

You must play while your read the article!

Mother of All Bailout Message

Here are a couple of facts to chew on:

The website for the new blog is:

Charleston Market Report in the News

The Charleston Market Report

1. The Tri-County area

1. Existing Home Sales

1. Gather the monthly data.

1. Monthly Sales The number of sales per month.

Leading Indicators - 2nd Quarter 2008

Leading Indicators Matrix

Existing Residential Sales

Source: Charleston-Trident MLS

New Building Permits

Total through Q2 2008: 213

Total through Q2 2008: 236

Total through Q2 2008: 85

Quarterly Foreclosure Data

Activity Increases 121 Percent From Q2 2007

95 of 100 Largest Metro Areas Post Annual Increases

Nevada, California, Arizona post top state foreclosure rates

Monthly Inventory Ratio

Source: Charleston-Trident MLS

What is the Yield Curve?

Residential Market Matrix

Tri-County CurrentQtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Yr Qtr

Tri-County Current Qtr % Chg Prior Qtr % Chg Prior Yr Qtr

"Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others."

"Any informed borrower is simply less vulnerable to fraud and abuse."

Landlords grow rich in their sleep.

The best investment on Earth is earth.

Probably the best speaker yet!

Very good information.

Charleston Real Estate Investors Association

Dr. Sam G. Berry

Dr. Sam G. Berry

This is T with Prudential, we spoke on the phone last week.

Keep up the good work.

Talk to you soon.

About Brad Rundbaken

Mortgage & Finance

Disclaimers and Acknowledgements

Charleston Market Report

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