Saifuddin Suaib 397251

Climate Change Politics and Policy

Assignment 1

TUVALUS FIGHT AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE

Adopting Targeted Emission Reduction 2013-2020
April 5, 2011
To: Minister of Natural Resources, Energy and Environment
Key aim:
To advise on adopting carbon reduction emission target 2013-2020 as a
way to mitigate climate change in Tuvalu.
Overview of relevant issues:
It is widely known that earth gets warmer nowadays. The strongest
argument for the so called global warming to happen is due to the
combination of natural events and land use alteration by human kind1.
The science has predicted that if we keep emitting the world the way we
do it nowadays, it will create an abrupt climate change in which there is
no more turning point. The latest research shows that we emit 40% more
greenhouse gases to the atmosphere than what we did in 1990es, which
means that we just need less than 20 years to pass the level of 2 degrees
increase2.

1IPCC. 2007. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press.
2Allison, I., N. Bindoff, R. Bindschadler, P. Cox, N. d. Noblet-Ducoudr, M. England,
J. Francis, N. Gruber, A. Haywood, D. Karoly, G. Kaser, C. L. Qur, T. Lenton, M.
Mann, B. McNeil, A. Pitman, S. Rahmstorf, E. Rignot, H. J. Schellnhuber, S.
Schneider, S. Sherwood, R. Somerville, K. Steffen, E. Steig, M. Visbeck & A.
Weaver. 2009. The Copenhagen Diagnosis; Updating the World on the Latest
Climate Science. Sydney, Australia: The University of New South Wales. Climate
Change Research Centre (CCRC).

Saifuddin Suaib 397251

Climate Change Politics and Policy
Assignment 1

The impact of abrupt climate change is the change of storm, floods or

drought patterns and sea level rise3. Tuvalu is the most vulnerable
country for the impact of climate change. The most recent big disaster
that Tuvalu experienced was Kina cyclone in 1993 that spent one third of
government budget for urgent reconstruction4. Community is aware that
the current trend of cyclones and floods is getting more unpredictable.
With the highest point of 4 meters above sea level5, Tuvalu is very prone
to sea level rise impact.
Sea rise level has threatened coastal population. As a country that deals
with many kind of natural disasters, Tuvalu may be able to deal with
seasonal disasters but unable to cope with the impact caused by climate
change alone. Ironically Tuvalu that has an emission next to zero6, indeed
is a country that will be enormously affected by climate change; and in
the worst case the country will be just history when the action to halt
emission can not be carried out7. Tuvalu is now in an endangered situation
and desperately required world action to significantly reduce their
emission.
The road to reduce emission appears to be wobbly. Kyoto protocol is
designed to target the countries (particularly developed countries) to
3 Alley, R. B., J. Marotzke, W. Nordhaus, J. Overpeck, D. Peteet, R. P. Jr, R.
Pierrehumbert, P. Rhines, T. Stocker, L. Talley & J. M. Wallace. 2004. Abrupt
Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington DC: The National Academies.
4 Simms, A. 2005. The Heaven Bursters: Tuvalu and the Fate of Nations. In
Ecological Debt. New York: Pluto Press.
5 ibid
6 United Nations Statistics Division. 2009. Environmental Statistics Country
Snapshot: Tuvalu.
7 Fisher, P. B. 2008. Climate Justice: Human Security and Climate Change in
Tuvalu. Conference Papers -- International Studies Association, 1-22.

Saifuddin Suaib 397251

Climate Change Politics and Policy
Assignment 1

reduce emission and simultaneously assist developing countries through

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The protocol that we perceived to
be an effective tool, in fact could not impose the biggest emitter country
to agree in reducing its emissions. Although many Annex 1 countries have
ratified the protocol, the protocol itself has compliance issue. This issue
derives from the nature of an international treaty for not being able to
create a legally binding agreement (soft law)8.
Another decision that may put Tuvalu in danger is that developing
countries are not obliged to have targeted emissions. Although
industrialised countries listed in Annex 1 have agreed and targeted their
emission reduction, such effort will not give a maximum impact when
developing countries are not committed to do so. The countries with high
population like China, India and Indonesia could possibly be other threats
in the future once they do not commit to target their emission reduction
from now. Besides, Tuvalu will insist to set 1,5 degrees as the temperature
increase target since scientific prediction shows that 2 degrees will lead to
catastrophic events for Tuvalu9. Even with 1.5 degrees, Tuvalu still needs
to optimise the adaptive measures in order to minimize the impacts of
climate change.
As the most vulnerable country, Tuvalu requires a lot of fund for climate
mitigation. The country requires funding for adaptation measures which is
estimated around US$ 80 billion per year10. Such amount is clearly not
affordable for Tuvalu as the least developed country. The country will not
8 von Stein, J. 2008. The International Law and Politics of Climate Change.
Journal of Conflict Resolution, 52, 243-268..
9 Farbotko, C. M., Helen V. 2010. Copenhagen , climate science and the
emotional geographies of climate change. Australian Geographer, 41, 159-166.
10 Tuvalu at the United Nations. 2007. Tuvalu calls for Climate Change Polluters
to Pay Retrieved 30 March 2011, from
http://www.tuvaluislands.com/un/2007/un_2007-09-29.html

Saifuddin Suaib 397251

Climate Change Politics and Policy
Assignment 1

rely on the aids to cover the adaptation measures; instead Tuvalu requires
the responsibility of climate change emitter to pay compensation. The
concern is whether Kyoto Protocol can accommodate this proposed
scheme or not.
Tuvalu has experienced a series of disappointments in UNFCC
negotiation. In Copenhagen, for instance, Tuvalu has prepared a proposed
framework convention on climate change11. Unfortunately such proposal
has never been discussed which implies that Tuvalus concerns have
never been taken seriously by the forum. Thus, we decided not to accept
Copenhagen Accord because we think it only serves a short term political
interest of some parties12.
Tuvalu has attracted world attention in Copenhagen, international
community and NGOs gave massive support for Tuvalu. However, it was
insufficient to convince other countries to commit for the proposed 1.5
degrees. Tuvalu do believe that Kyoto Protocol framework as the most
viable option so far, however Tuvalu and other atoll countries require a
legally binding commitment from all parties. Besides, the vulnerable
developing countries are less heard while in fact the atoll countries in
Pacific are the worst affected countries. Although Tuvalu is perceived
insignificant economically due to its size and remoteness, but when it
comes to climate change impact, Tuvalus voice should be heard and
accommodated.
11 Government of Tuvalu. 2009. Tuvalu addressed to the secretariat of the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change presenting a new protocol to
the Convention Retrieved 1 April 2011, from
http://unfccc.int/files/parties_and_observers/notifications/application/pdf/050609_
nv_tuvalu_proposal.pdf
12 Government of Tuvalu. 2010. Tuvalu Statement at the High Level Segmen
COP16/CMP6 Retrieved 1 April 2011, from
http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/cop_16/statements/application/pdf/101208_cop16
_hls_tuvalu.pdf

Saifuddin Suaib 397251

Climate Change Politics and Policy
Assignment 1

The plus and minus of Kyoto Protocol and its implementation in reducing
emission have been identified. Below are the options for Tuvalu:
1. Adopt targeted emission reduction commitment outside Kyoto
Protocol framework
2. Adopt targeted emission reduction commitment within Kyoto
Protocol framework
3. Reject targeted emission reduction commitment
4. Encourage other non-Annex 1 countries to adopt targeted emission
reduction
5. Urging climate change polluter to pay compensation for the
vulnerable developing countries.
6. Gain more support from NGOs
Recommendation
Tuvalu should select option 2, 4, 5 and 6 as the option combination that
may give the best results for the country. Option 1 is taken because Tuvalu
still believes that Kyoto Protocol Framework is the best framework that we
have so far. By adopting the target emission reduction, other developing
countries will feel the pressures to also adopt such commitment. Above
all, Tuvalu should still strive for a legally binding agreement to create a
more effective result. Support from NGOs will create extra pressures for
the emitters to achieve our maximum 1,5 degrees goal.
Word Count: 1000 (excluding references)