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Q max (m3/sg)
86.00
174.00
164.00
279.00
223.00
51.00
191.00
176.00
118.00
178.00
175.00
159.00
142.00
322.00
219.00
130.00
166.00
120.00
662.00
193.00
198.00
249.00
232.00
150.00
138.00
183.00
268.00
162.00
347.00
203.00
129.00
220.00
66.00
58.00
157.00
347.00
METODO DE NASH
m
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
Q max.
662.00
347.00
347.00
322.00
279.00
268.00
249.00
232.00
223.00
220.00
219.00
203.00
198.00
193.00
191.00
183.00
178.00
176.00
175.00
174.00
166.00
164.00
162.00
159.00
157.00
150.00
142.00
138.00
130.00
129.00
120.00
118.00
86.00
66.00
58.00
51.00
igual a:
7035.00
Q prom =
195.42
Xm =
-0.597
T
37.000
18.500
12.333
9.250
7.400
6.167
5.286
4.625
4.111
3.700
3.364
3.083
2.846
2.643
2.467
2.313
2.176
2.056
1.947
1.850
1.762
1.682
1.609
1.542
1.480
1.423
1.370
1.321
1.276
1.233
1.194
1.156
1.121
1.088
1.057
1.028
(m/sg)
T/(T-1)
1.028
1.057
1.088
1.121
1.156
1.194
1.233
1.276
1.321
1.370
1.423
1.480
1.542
1.609
1.682
1.762
1.850
1.947
2.056
2.176
2.313
2.467
2.643
2.846
3.083
3.364
3.700
4.111
4.625
5.286
6.167
7.400
9.250
12.333
18.500
37.000
X
-1.924
-1.617
-1.435
-1.304
-1.200
-1.114
-1.041
-0.975
-0.917
-0.864
-0.815
-0.769
-0.726
-0.685
-0.646
-0.609
-0.573
-0.538
-0.505
-0.471
-0.439
-0.407
-0.375
-0.343
-0.311
-0.278
-0.245
-0.212
-0.177
-0.141
-0.102
-0.061
-0.015
0.038
0.103
0.195
Q*X
-1274.007
-561.230
-497.967
-419.808
-334.885
-298.663
-259.103
-226.316
-204.504
-190.035
-178.411
-156.083
-143.721
-132.231
-123.446
-111.465
-102.031
-94.764
-88.297
-82.024
-72.841
-66.681
-60.687
-54.489
-48.776
-41.752
-34.861
-29.237
-23.024
-18.163
-12.281
-7.182
-1.286
2.499
5.964
9.965
iguales a:
-21.499
-5931.819
a=
76.48
b = Xi*Qi - N*Xm*Qm
Xi - N*Xm
b=
-199.15
y T = 50 aos
486.11
y tambin T / (T -1)=
1.020
(m/s)
Sxx =
312.8254
Sqq =
14496435.0000
Sxq = N Qi*Xi - ( Qi )( Xi ) =
Sxq =
-62300.5964
Xi=
-2.0568
X i log ( log (
Q 2
T
))
T -1
Sqq
S qq
1
1
(
X
X
)
(
)(
)(
S
)
M
qq
N 2 ( N 1)
N 2 S xx
S xx
2
540.439
(m/sg)
P (%)
80.00
90.00
96.00
98.00
99.00
99.50
99.79
99.80
99.90
X
-1.0136
-1.3395
-1.7513
-2.0568
-2.3600
-2.6622
-3.0385
-3.0608
-3.3620
Qmax (m3/s)
278.35
343.26
425.27
486.11
546.49
606.66
681.60
686.05
746.04
Qd (m3/s)
315.96
384.63
473.48
540.44
607.48
674.70
758.81
763.80
831.39
Q =
nuales.
udal de diseo.
O DE NASH
N=
36 aos
Q
438244.000
120409.000
120409.000
103684.000
77841.000
71824.000
62001.000
53824.000
49729.000
48400.000
47961.000
41209.000
39204.000
37249.000
36481.000
33489.000
31684.000
30976.000
30625.000
30276.000
27556.000
26896.000
26244.000
25281.000
24649.000
22500.000
20164.000
19044.000
16900.000
16641.000
14400.000
13924.000
7396.000
4356.000
3364.000
2601.000
X
3.704
2.616
2.059
1.700
1.441
1.242
1.083
0.952
0.841
0.746
0.664
0.591
0.527
0.469
0.418
0.371
0.329
0.290
0.255
0.222
0.193
0.165
0.140
0.117
0.097
0.077
0.060
0.045
0.031
0.020
0.010
0.004
0.000
0.001
0.011
0.038
1777435.000
21.529
54.33
METODO DE LEBEDIEV
AO
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
igual a:
Q max
86.00
174.00
164.00
279.00
223.00
51.00
191.00
176.00
118.00
178.00
175.00
159.00
142.00
322.00
219.00
130.00
166.00
120.00
662.00
193.00
198.00
249.00
232.00
150.00
138.00
183.00
268.00
162.00
347.00
203.00
129.00
220.00
66.00
58.00
157.00
347.00
7035.00
N=
36
(Qmax/Qm) - 1
-0.560
-0.110
-0.161
0.428
0.141
-0.739
-0.023
-0.099
-0.396
-0.089
-0.104
-0.186
-0.273
0.648
0.121
-0.335
-0.151
-0.386
2.388
-0.012
0.013
0.274
0.187
-0.232
-0.294
-0.064
0.371
-0.171
0.776
0.039
-0.340
0.126
-0.662
-0.703
-0.197
0.776
igual a:
Qm = Qi / N
, luego :
Qm =
(m3/s)
195.42
(Q/Qm - 1)2
0.314
0.012
0.026
0.183
0.020
0.546
0.001
0.010
0.157
0.008
0.011
0.035
0.075
0.420
0.015
0.112
0.023
0.149
5.701
0.000
0.000
0.075
0.035
0.054
0.086
0.004
0.138
0.029
0.602
0.002
0.116
0.016
0.439
0.494
0.039
0.602
10.545
(Q/Qm - 1)3
-0.176
-0.001
-0.004
0.078
0.003
-0.404
0.000
-0.001
-0.062
-0.001
-0.001
-0.006
-0.020
0.272
0.002
-0.038
-0.003
-0.057
13.611
0.000
0.000
0.021
0.007
-0.013
-0.025
0.000
0.051
-0.005
0.467
0.000
-0.039
0.002
-0.290
-0.348
-0.008
0.467
13.477
0.541
Cs=
Cs=
Cs =
2.3615
50 aos
P=
P (en %) =
0.02
2.00
K=
2.980
0.78
(m3/s)
f) Clculo del intervalo de confianza: Para N = 44 aos (N > 40 aos) se toma A= 0.7
A= 0.70
Q = + (A*Er*Qmax)/N
Q =
46.463
(m3/s)
g) Clculo del caudal de diseo Qd :
Qd = Qmax + Q
Qd =
557.050
(m3/s)
P (%)
20.00
10.00
4.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.21
0.20
0.10
K
0.55
1.26
2.35
2.98
3.73
4.52
5.75
5.77
6.26
Er
1.10
1.41
1.65
0.78
1.87
1.98
1.99
2.10
2.13
Qmax (m3/s)
253.59
328.68
443.96
510.59
589.91
673.46
803.55
805.66
857.48
3*Cv
1.6236
Qd (m3/s)
286.13
382.74
529.42
557.05
718.61
829.03
990.10
1003.05
1070.57
0.10
7.16
7.23
7.29
7.35
7.39
7.44
7.49
7.54
7.59
7.64
7.68
7.72
7.79
7.86
7.91
7.97
8.02
8.08
8.12
8.17
8.23
8.29
8.33
8.38
8.43
8.49
8.54
8.60
8.64
8.69
0.50
4.98
5.01
5.04
5.08
5.11
5.14
5.16
5.19
5.22
5.25
5.27
5.30
5.32
5.35
5.37
5.40
5.42
5.45
5.47
5.50
5.52
5.55
5.57
5.60
5.62
5.65
5.67
5.69
5.71
5.74
Probabilidad P en (%)
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.07
3.14
2.66
4.09
3.14
2.66
4.10
3.14
2.66
4.11
3.14
2.66
4.13
3.14
2.66
4.15
3.14
2.66
4.16
3.14
2.66
4.18
3.15
2.66
4.19
3.15
2.66
4.21
3.16
2.66
4.22
3.16
2.66
4.24
3.17
2.66
4.25
3.17
2.66
4.26
3.18
2.66
4.27
3.18
2.66
4.29
3.18
2.65
4.31
3.19
2.65
4.32
3.20
2.65
4.33
3.20
2.65
4.34
3.20
2.65
4.35
3.21
2.65
4.36
3.21
2.65
4.37
3.22
2.65
4.39
3.23
2.65
4.39
3.24
2.64
4.40
3.24
2.64
4.41
3.24
2.64
4.42
3.25
2.63
4.43
3.25
2.63
4.44
3.26
2.62
5.00
1.97
1.97
1.96
1.96
1.95
1.95
1.94
1.94
1.93
1.93
1.93
1.93
1.92
1.91
1.90
1.90
1.90
1.90
1.90
1.90
1.89
1.89
1.88
1.88
1.87
1.87
1.86
1.86
1.85
1.85
10.00
1.12
1.11
1.10
1.09
1.06
1.08
1.07
1.06
1.05
1.04
1.03
1.03
1.02
1.01
1.00
1.00
0.99
0.98
0.97
0.96
0.95
0.95
0.94
0.93
0.92
0.92
0.91
0.91
0.90
0.89
20.00
0.38
0.37
0.36
0.35
0.34
0.33
0.32
0.31
0.30
0.29
0.28
0.28
0.27
0.26
0.25
0.24
0.23
0.23
0.22
0.21
0.20
0.20
0.19
0.19
0.18
0.17
0.16
0.15
0.14
0.14
Ao
Max.
662.00
347.00
347.00
322.00
279.00
268.00
249.00
232.00
223.00
220.00
219.00
203.00
198.00
193.00
191.00
183.00
178.00
176.00
175.00
174.00
166.00
164.00
162.00
159.00
157.00
150.00
142.00
138.00
130.00
129.00
120.00
118.00
86.00
66.00
58.00
51.00
7035.00
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
=
Descendente
662.00
347.00
347.00
322.00
279.00
268.00
249.00
232.00
223.00
220.00
219.00
203.00
198.00
193.00
191.00
183.00
178.00
176.00
175.00
174.00
166.00
164.00
162.00
159.00
157.00
150.00
142.00
138.00
130.00
129.00
120.00
118.00
86.00
66.00
58.00
51.00
7035.00
log Q 2
7.957
6.453
6.453
6.289
5.981
5.896
5.742
5.596
5.515
5.487
5.478
5.325
5.275
5.224
5.203
5.119
5.064
5.042
5.031
5.020
4.929
4.906
4.882
4.846
4.822
4.735
4.632
4.579
4.469
4.455
4.323
4.293
3.742
3.311
3.110
2.916
182.10
(logQ - logQp)^3
0.197
0.027
0.027
0.019
0.009
0.007
0.004
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
-0.001
-0.001
-0.002
-0.002
-0.004
-0.005
-0.028
-0.074
-0.107
-0.150
-0.08
a) PROMEDIO:
Log Qp =
2.239
b) DESVIACION ESTANDAR:
Log Q =
0.217
36
-0.229
P (%)
20.00
10.00
4.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
K
0.835
1.293
1.790
2.115
2.412
2.685
Log Q
2.420
2.519
2.627
2.698
2.762
2.821
Qd (m3/s)
263.01
330.61
423.75
498.50
577.97
662.52
475
500
1000
0.21
0.20
0.10
2.963
3.105
3.885
2.882
2.912
3.081
761.24
817.18
1206.41
Q mx
86.00
174.00
164.00
279.00
223.00
51.00
191.00
176.00
118.00
178.00
175.00
159.00
142.00
322.00
219.00
130.00
166.00
120.00
662.00
193.00
198.00
249.00
232.00
150.00
138.00
183.00
268.00
162.00
347.00
203.00
129.00
220.00
66.00
58.00
157.00
347.00
7035.00
(Q mx )
7396.000
30276.000
26896.000
77841.000
49729.000
2601.000
36481.000
30976.000
13924.000
31684.000
30625.000
25281.000
20164.000
103684.000
47961.000
16900.000
27556.000
14400.000
438244.000
37249.000
39204.000
62001.000
53824.000
22500.000
19044.000
33489.000
71824.000
26244.000
120409.000
41209.000
16641.000
48400.000
4356.000
3364.000
24649.000
120409.000
1777435.000
50
y # de Aos ( N ) =
36
Qm = Q / # de Aos
Qm=
195.417 m3/s
Q i
i 1
N Q m2
N 1
Q =
107.262
YN =
N =
36
0.5410
N =
1.1313
515.033 m3/s
6.- Clculo de :
= 1 - 1/T
= 0.980
7.- Clculo del Intervalo de Confianza:
Si > 0.90, el intervalo de confianza se calcula como:
Q = 1.14 Q/N
Q =
108.087 m3/s
Qdiseo = Qmax Q
Q diseo =
623.120
m3/s
Factor
0.800
0.900
0.960
0.980
0.990
Q mx (m3/s)
296.72
362.44
449.31
515.03
580.75
Q (m3/s)
35.41
50.00
108.09
108.09
108.09
Qd (m3/s)
332.13
412.43
557.40
623.12
688.84
200
475
500
1000
0.995
0.998
0.998
0.999
646.47
728.48
733.35
799.07
108.09
108.09
108.09
108.09
754.56
836.57
841.43
907.15
nemos:
N=
m
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
36 aos
T (aos)
37.000
18.500
12.333
9.250
7.400
6.167
5.286
4.625
4.111
3.700
3.364
3.083
2.846
2.643
2.467
2.313
2.176
2.056
1.947
1.850
1.762
1.682
1.609
1.542
1.480
1.423
1.370
1.321
1.276
1.233
1.194
1.156
1.121
1.088
1.057
1.028
, DONDE :
n 1
Q (m3/s)
662.000
347.000
347.000
322.000
279.000
249.000
268.000
232.000
223.000
219.000
203.000
198.000
193.000
191.000
183.000
178.000
176.000
175.000
174.000
166.000
220.000
164.000
162.000
159.000
157.000
150.000
142.000
138.000
130.000
129.000
120.000
118.000
86.000
66.000
58.000
51.000
En el grfico T vs. Q, se observa que el mtodo que ms se acerca a la datos registrados es la distribucin por el Me
I, por lo cual asumiremos este mtodo para calcular el caudal mximo.
25
50
100
200
475
500
1000
557.40
623.12
688.84
754.56
836.57
841.43
907.15
Q max =
ES METODOS ESTADISTICOS
METODO DE NASH
T (aos)
Q max (m3/s)
5
315.96
10
384.63
25
473.48
50
540.44
100
607.48
200
674.70
475
758.81
500
763.80
1000
831.39
METODO DE LEBEDIEV
T (aos)
Q max (m3/s)
0
0.00
0
0.00
0
0.00
0
0.00
0
0.00
0
0.00
0
0.00
0
0.00
0
0.00
METODO DE LOG PEARSON III
T (aos)
Q max (m3/s)
5
263.01
10
330.61
25
423.75
50
498.50
100
577.97
200
662.52
475
761.24
500
817.18
1000
1206.41
METODO DE GUMBEL TIPO I
T (aos)
Q max (m3/s)
5
332.13
10
412.43
25
557.40
50
623.12
100
688.84
200
754.56
475
836.57
500
841.43
1000
907.15
s:
623.12
m3/s
1000
LEBEDIEV
NASH
Caudal (m3/s)
800
LOG PEARS
GUMBEL TI
600
400
200
0
1
10
100
1000
o (en aos)
Registro
LEBEDIEV
NASH
LOG PEARSON III
GUMBEL TIPO I
100
1000
T (aos)
5
10
25
50
100
200
475
500
1000
METODO DE NASH
315.96
384.63
473.48
540.44
607.48
674.70
758.81
763.80
831.39
METODO DE LEBEDIEV
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00