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Conditional probability & r balls randomly distributed in n cells

jerro

#1

Mar 19, 2012

Conditional probability & "r balls randomly distributed in n cells"

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1. The problem statement, all variables and given/known data

I'm posting this in hope that someone can give me a correct interpretation of the
following problem (problem V.8 of Feller's Introduction to probability theory and its
applications VOL I):

8. Seven balls are distributed randomly in seven cells. Given that two cells are empty,
show that the (conditional) probability of a triple occupancy of some cells equals 1/4.
Verify this numerically using table 1 of II,5.

2. Relevant equations
Conditional probability:
P {AB}
P {A|B} =
P {B}

Number of ways of distributing r indistinguishable balls in n cells:

n + r 1
(

)
r

Number of ways of distributing r indistinguishable balls in n cells and no cell remaining empty:
(

r 1
)
n 1

3. The attempt at a solution

I cannot arrive at the 1/4 gure, so I thought this may be due to a misunderstanding of the problem statement. The way I interpreted
the problem is saying that the new sample space is the same as if any 2 of the seven cells turn out to be empty, giving 315 possible
arrangements:
7
7 1
( )(
) = 315
5 1
2

With this scheme, only one cell of the remaining 5 can be triply occupied, because that leaves us with distributing the remaining 4
balls in the remaining 4 cells and no cell remaining empty. If we ignore the common factor 7 choose 2 = 21:
5
(

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#2

Mar 19, 2012

Re: Conditional probability & "r balls randomly distributed in n cells"

jerro said:
Science Advisor
Homework Helper

1. The problem statement, all variables and given/known data

I'm posting this in hope that someone can give me a correct interpretation of the following problem (problem V.8 of Feller's Introduction to probability theory
and its applications VOL I):
8. Seven balls are distributed randomly in seven cells. Given that two cells are empty, show that the (conditional) probability of a triple occupancy of some cells
equals 1/4. Verify this numerically using table 1 of II,5.
2. Relevant equations
Conditional probability:
P {AB}
P {A|B} =
P {B}

Number of ways of distributing r indistinguishable balls in n cells:

(

n + r 1
)
r

Number of ways of distributing r indistinguishable balls in n cells and no cell remaining empty:
(

r 1
)
n 1

3. The attempt at a solution

I cannot arrive at the 1/4 gure, so I thought this may be due to a misunderstanding of the problem statement. The way I interpreted the problem is saying that
the new sample space is the same as if any 2 of the seven cells turn out to be empty, giving 315 possible arrangements:
7
7 1
( )(
) = 315
2
5 1

With this scheme, only one cell of the remaining 5 can be triply occupied, because that leaves us with distributing the remaining 4 balls in the remaining 4 cells
and no cell remaining empty. If we ignore the common factor 7 choose 2 = 21:
5

1
=

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Presumably you are supposed to come up with some clever direct argument, but barring that, Feller's hint will give you what you want
(except for roundoff errors---which can be eliminated by going to exact rational expressions). Just consult Table I of II,5. What entries
have exactly two cells empty? Among those, what entries have have triple entry cells?
RGV

jerro

#3

Mar 19, 2012

Re: Conditional probability & "r balls randomly distributed in n cells"

Thanks, now I got the correct answer. I guess my mistake was approaching the problem from "the number of indistinguishable
congurations", ignoring that some of those congurations would appear more often than others.

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