Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
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Keynes'
General
Theory
ED IT E D BY
REPORTS
OF
THREE
DECADES
Robert Lekachman
Barnard College, Columhia University
Palgrave Macmillan
ISBN 978-1-349-81809-9
ISBN 978-1-349-81807-5 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-81807-5
Toronto
New York
Preface
T
vi, Preface
prices. Viner reaffinns his admiration of Keynesian short-run analysis
and his preference for older analyses of the long-run.
The last group of essays, the contents of Part III, mark three
events: the passage of a decade after the publication of the General
Theory, the end of World War II, and the untimely death of Lord
Keynes. It is not surprising that Haberler's, Sweezy's, and Samuelson's early and contemporary judgments vary considerably on such
issues as theoretical originality, analytical usability, and public policy
guidance. Indeed, it is scarcely necessary to say that among them
these nine economists cover most of the available theoretical and
political attitudes toward the New Economics.
The date of publication suggests that the delays which attend the
coordination of contributors, editor, publishers, and printers have
made it necessary to interpret a quarter of a century with a certain
indulgence. Nevertheless, it is much more than a routine courtesy
on my part to express my gratitude to nine distinguished contributors.
ROBERT LEKACHMAN
New York
Biographical Notes
D. G. CHAMPERNOWNE, now Fellow of Trinity College,
Cambridge, initially read mathematics as an undergraduate at Kings
College Cambridge. Coming under J. M. Keynes' inRuence, he
turned to economics and joined W. B. Reddaway as a pupil of
Keynes'. A prize fellow of Kings College in 1937 and Cambridge
lecturer in statistics in 1938, he directed the Oxford Institute of
Statistics from 1945 to 1948 and held the position of Professor of
Statistics at that University between 1948 and 1959. In the years
1945-49 he was a Fellow of Nuffield College, Oxford. Since 1959 he
has been a Fellow of Trinity and Reader in Economics at Cambridge
University.
GOTI'FRIED HABERLER, Professor of Economics at Harvard
and 1963 President of the American Economic Association, was born
in Purkersdorf, near Vienna, in Austria, and came to the United
States in 1936. A student at the University of Vienna, the Handelshochschule in St. Gallen, and the University of London, he also
attended Harvard and other American universities. He has taught
at the University of Vienna and Harvard, been associated with the
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and been elected
President of the International Economic Association (1950-1951)
and the National Bureau of Economic Research (1956). His extensive publications in international trade and economic Ructuations
include The Theory of International Trade with its Applications to
Commercial Policy, and Prosperity and Depression which since its
publication in 1937 has gone through several editions and been translated into a number of other languages.
SIR ROY HARROD, a don at Christ Church College, Oxford,
since 1922, is a fellow of the British Academy and the recipient of
honorary degrees from the Universities of Poitiers and Aberdeen.
During the Second World War, he was a member of Winston
Churchill's private statistical branch. Sir Roy was a member of the
vii
Biographical Notes ix
PAUL A. SAMUELSON, who has been President of the American Economic Association and the Econometric Society, was trained
at Chicago and Harvard. His extensive works range from a bestselling textbook Economics (5th edition and numerous translations
since 1948) to advanced treatises like Foundations of Economic
Analysis (1947) and (with R. Dorfman and R. M. Solow) Linear
Programming and Economic Analysis. At M.LT. since 1940, he has
served as consultant for numerous government and private organizations, lectured extensively, and engaged in financial journalism for
domestic and foreign papers.
PAUL M. SWEEZY is coeditor of the Monthly Review, an
independent socialist journal, and a former member of Harvard's
economics department. A 1938 winner of Harvard's David A. Wells
Prize and a 1945 recipient of the Bronze Star, he served during the
Second World War with the Office of Strategic Services in England,
France, and Germany. In recent years he has been Visiting Professor
of Economics at Cornell and Stanford. His publications include
Monopoly and Competition in the English Coal Trade, The Theory
of Capitalist Development, Socialism, The Present as History, and,
with Leo Huberman, Cuba: Anatomy of a Revolution.
JACOB VINER, Professor Emeritus of Economics at Princeton, was born in Montreal, Canada, and educated at McGill and
Harvard. A naturalized American citizen, he taught at Chicago and
Princeton and served several terms in the American government. A
past president of the American Economic Association, he is the recipient of twelve honorary degrees, a special award from the American Council of Learned Societies, and the American Economic
Association's highest honor, the Francis A. Walker Medal. His inHuential publications include Canada's Balance of International
Indebtedness, Studies in the Theory of International Trade, International Trade and Economic Development, and The Long View
and the Short.
Contents
Preface
Biographical Notes
Introduction
PART ONE
vii
E. A. G. ROBINSON
13
87
W. B. REDDAWAY
99
108
R. F. HARROD
124
139
D. G. CHAMPERNOWNE
153
174
ABBA P. LERNER
203
222
JACOB VINER
235
253
xii . Contents
PART THREE
GOTTFRIED HABERLER
269
289
PA UL M. SWEEZY
297
305
P A U L A. SAM U E L SON
315
331
Introduction
IN THE VERY LONG RUN every economic doctrine loses its
capacity to persuade. In 1798, a mere twenty-two years after the
Wealth of Nations, Malthus' Essay on Population substituted demographic pessimism for Smith's institutional optimism. Nineteen years
later David Ricardo completed Malthus' work with a tight theory
of distribution which left small scope for encouragement about the
prospects of the ordinary citizen. When Ricardo's work was done
little remained of Smith's treatise save a dauntless confidence in the
primacy of egotistic economic motives and in the pervasiveness of
the self-adjusting capacities of competitive markets. In nineteenthcentury England economists were few-Malthus himself occupied
the first chair of political economy at Haileybury, and reliable statistics were nearly' as scarce. Even so, two decades appeared a very
respectable run for a major economic conception.
In the twentieth century English-speaking lands lack for neither
economists nor statistics, and reputations are as readily acquired by
destroying theories as by creating them. For a single doctrine still to
be the center of learned controversy after nearly three decades is a
striking testimonial to the powers of its creator and the richness of
his creation. Such is the state of Keynesian economics, for the contributors to this volume seem agreed that there is no contemporary
economist who commands Keynes' position in 1963, much less in
1946, the year of his death. In 1962 when the New Republic published its symposium Time for a Keynes the principal impressions
which the assorted opinions produced were two: we need a Keynes,
and no Keynes is in sight.
A new Keynes would have work to occupy him. Problems of economic development have assumed an urgency that they did not
evince in the mid-1930'S. Although Keynesian-influenced growth
models have certainly been applied to the economic situations of
numerous developing countries, no single model and no single
growth theorist has come close to duplicating the feat of the General
I
Robert Lekachman
Introduction 3
required. For the first time since World War I, the United States
has a balance of payments problem.
2. The apparent intractability of the unemployment problem is
the consequence of an "unusual" spurt in the growth of the labor
force. During the 1950'S the year-to-year increase of the labor force
averaged only 700,000. In 1963 the expansion approximated a million
and a quarter. Worse is yet to follow during the rest of the 1960's.
3. More jobs are lost because of automation than are gained because of economic expansion. Whether automation is or is not a
phenomenon qualitatively different from the incremental technological innovations that have been routine since the Industrial Revolution fascinates the theorists. What is certain is this: in both factories
and offices routine, slightly-skilled jobs are vanishing. It is estimated
that in offices every $5,000 of investment in the new computer devices displaces a clerk. The record is to be read in rising clerical
unemployment: 2.8 per cent in January, 1957, 3.8 per cent in January, 1960, 4.2 per cent in January, 1961, and 4.6 per cent in
January, 1962. No one is certain, but as many as a million office
workers may lose their jobs annually because computers do their
work more efficiently.
4. In the labor market supply and demand are imperfectly adjusted.
Partly as the consequence of automation, partly as the result of continuing shifts in the occupational structure from manufacturing to
the service trades, unskilled and semi-skilled jobs are becoming relatively scarce, and managerial, technical, and professional opportunities
are expanding. The existing distribution of skills does not match the
new job specifications. Displaced clerks make indifferent programmers. Discharged assembly-line workers make poor managers.
Remedies are easier to state than to implement. Older workers
require retraining and possibly relocation. New entrants to the job
market need different, greatly improved forms of vocational education. All workers would benefit from the command of the skills of
word and number, which enhance worker confidence and facilitate
the learning of new skills throughout a working career.
All that has been said on this score applies a fortiori to Negroes
and Puerto Ricans, whose job opportunities have been cruelly limited
by racial discrimination to the very unskilled positions which are now
rapidly disappearing.
4 . Robert Lekachman
5. Then there is the much disputed influence of large corporations
and large unions to which Lerner alludes in his 1963 essay. If in
the concentrated industries unions force wages up more rapidly than
productivity rises, and if managements raise their prices at the breath
of favorable economic breezes and somehow omit to lower them in
economic squalls, then any Administration is compelled to switch
from expansion to restriction well in advance of full employment.
Unless, of course, it is willing to pay the price of inflation. Samuelson speculates in his new essay that price stability in the United
States may be purchasable only at the cost of 5-6 per cent levels of
unemployment. Is such an outcome worse than annual increases in
general prices of 2-3 per cent? The answers are far from unanimous.
6. Finally, there is the possibility, stressed in Sweezy's second
essay, that the United States is undergoing a recurrence of the problems of secular stagnation which were masked but not resolved by
World War II and the consumption boom that followed it. The new
stagnationist doctrine bases itself on income distribution. Studies by
Lampman, Kolko, and Miller, among others, have documented the
proposition that the trend toward diminished inequality of income
halted by the end of World War II.
What is notable about these varied, partially overlapping, explanations of American economic sluggishness is this: with the important
exception of the last one, they have comparatively little to do with
Keynesian diagnoses. The first hypothesis is no more than the venerable gold standard justification of internal deflation. The novelty
of the gold standard prescription in the 1960's is that no nation
actually is on the gold standard and few are willing to argue for the
concomitant wage and price reductions. Explanations 2, 3, and 4 are
related either to "accidental," temporary events like unusual increases
in the labor force, or to frictional impediments which represent labor
market imperfections. Number 5, the popular postwar emphasis upon
cost-push inflation, is founded upon the behavior of exactly those
large economic units whose activities are so imperfectly comprehended within the Keynesian conceptual framework. For by abstracting from the degree of competition, Keynes in effect denied the
importance of variations in market organization to the workings of
his apparatus.
It is the sixth line of argument which, purified of its demography,
1ntroduction 5
is most interesting. If we use secular stagnation as a convenient label
for any persistent tendency of aggregate demand and aggregate
supply to approach equilibrium at less than full employment values,
we can glance at a question which has received only moderate attention in recent years from Keynesians: how much in Keynes supports
the stagnationist judgment of capitalist prospects?
Unquestionably the Keynes who is now in vogue is a safely moderate figure completely devoted to the proposition that the proper
application of intelligent monetary and fiscal policies can maintain
intact the current institutional arrangements of Western capitalism.
Indeed, taken solely as an analytical apparatus applicable to shortrun problems exclusively (as Viner argues in his second essay we
should understand Keynes), Keynesian macroeconomics plausibly
support this conservative characterization.
All the same, there is another Keynes present both in the General
Theory and in much that preceded it. This Keynes is less optimistic,
less capitalist, and more radical. Certainly as early as 1920, Keynes
was already emphasizing the fragility of capitalist arrangements.
Here, for example, is his comment on the delicate balance of forces
which facilitated the social harmonies of pre-World War I Europe:
While there was some continuous improvement in the daily
conditions of life of the mass of the population, Society was so
framed as to throw a great part of the increased income into
the control of the class least likely to consume it.... This remarkable system depended for its growth on a double bluff of
deception. On the one hand, the laboring classes accepted from
ignorance or powerlessness, or were compelled, persuaded or
cajoled by custom, convention, authority and the well-established order of Society into accepting a situation in which they
and Nature and the capitalists were co-operating to produce.
And on the other hand the capitalist classes were allowed to
call the best part of the cake theirs and were theoretically free
to consume it, on the tacit underlying condition that they consume very little of it in practice.1
As Keynes described the operations of this system of "double bluff,"
a good deal depended upon the mystique of the gold standard and
the astute, secretive central bankers who worked its delicate coni
6 . Robert Lekachman
troIs. Much rested upon a complex international division of labor
which required comparatively free trade among the nations and comparative political tranquillity between the major trading partners. The
first World War slaughtered the gold standard, disrupted the international division of labor, created a host of new, protectionist nations,
and dealt a mortal blow to free trade. After the British General Strike,
few could argue that the social harmonies remained any more intact.
Keynes' concerned observation and study of English economic
troubles during the 1920'S led him in 1930 to diagnose England's
economic ailment as over-saving. In part, the difficulty was geriatric:
"England is an old country.... The population will soon cease to
grow. Our habits and institutions keep us, in spite of all claims to
the contrary, a thrifty people."2 Obviously anyone steeped in the
classical economic tradition could not believe thrift hostile to full employment, if only thrift's companion were vigorous investment. Indeed, precisely this combination of high saving and high investment
explained to Keynes' satisfaction the economic successes of 18701914- But by the time Keynes came in the 1930'S to write the General
Theory, he had begun to question the plausibility of high investment. Here is one such passage:
Today and presumably for the future, the schedule of the
marginal efficiency of capital is for a variety of reasons much
lower than it was in the nineteenth century. The acuteness and
the peculiarity of our contemporary problems arises, therefore,
out of the possibility that the average rate of interest which
will allow a reasonable average level of employment is one so
unacceptable to wealth-owners that it cannot be readily established by manipulating the quantity of money.s
What therapy is possible? To conservatives the most acceptable
Keynesian treatment is interest rate variation. But suppose, as Keynes
hypothesized in the quotation, interest rates must be forced down
so low in order to stimulate reluctant investors that the owners of
wealth will preserve rather than part with their resources for rewards
so small. Then the money that central banking authorities can so
easily create will fail to flow into productive investments. And if in
addition interest rates have little effect on new investment at best,
2
Introduction 7
then even direct lending by government agencies at rates of interest
little higher than zero will have only trivial effects upon investment,
income, and employment.
This is familiar enough ground. Once we depart from the analytical skeleton of the General Theory, we can find a good many obiter
dicta which uneasily contemplate the possibilities that extra money
will simply vanish in the liquidity trap, that interest rates cannot
fall to levels low enough to evoke necessary, full-employment investment, and that the marginal efficiency of capital will remain stubbornly low. These Keynesian speculations reflect a mood and a guess
about the shape and position of the relevant functions, rather than
any empirical evidence.
But if by itself monetary policy is for reasons of this kind inadequate what else is there? Keynes' clearest statement of an alternative
policy is to be found near the end of the concluding chapter of the
General Theory:
In some other respects the foregoing theory is moderately conservative in its implications. For whilst it indicates the vital
importance of establishing certain central controls in matters
which are now left in the main to individual initiative, there
are wide fields of activity which are unaffected. The State will
have to exercise a guiding influence on the propensity to consume partly through its scheme of taxation, partly by fixing the
rate of interest, and partly, perhaps, in other ways. Furthermore, it seems unlikely that the influence of banking policy
on the rate of interest will be sufficient by itself to determine
an optimum rate of investment. I conceive, therefore, that a
somewhat comprehensive socialisation of investment will prove
the only means of securing an approximation to full employment; although this need not exclude all manner of compromises and devices by which public authority will co-operate
with private initiative. But beyond this no obvious case is made
out for a system of State Socialism which would embrace most
of the economic life of the community. It is not the ownership of the instruments of production which it is important for
the State to assume. If the State is able to determine the aggregate amount of resources devoted to augmenting the instruments and the basic rate of reward to those who own them, it
will have accomplished all that is necessary. Moreover, the
necessary measures of socialisation can be introduced gradually
and without a break in the general tradition of society.4
4
Ibid., p. 378.
8 . Robert Lekachman
The quiet tone and the temperate words should not conceal a startling message, nothing less than the admission of the virtual bankruptcy of any version of capitalism which endeavors to limp along
as an old-fashioned private enterprise system. Keynes' own "capitalism" must make its peace with a state that exerts a "guiding influence"
on consumption and undertake on its own account a "somewhat
comprehensive socialisation of investment." Since in a closed economic system consumption and investment (private and public) are
the components of total spending, Keynes' capitalism must be translated as a system in which total spending is directly or indirectly
controlled by the state and the state's instrumentalities.
How is it possible to term such a resolution of economic impasse
"moderately conservative in its implications"? In part no doubt because the implied alternative to such policies is not old-style laissezfaire but a "system of State Socialism which would embrace most
of the economic life of the community." The rest of the answer is
inferable from Keynes' affection for much that capitalism achieved
in the past and from his persistent confidence that reasonable men
could combine new economic arrangements with old cultural values.
For few have plead capitalism's case more eloquently:
Let us stop for a moment to remind ourselves what these advantages are. They are partly advantages of efficiency-the
advantages of decentralization and of the play of self-interest.
The advantage to efficiency of the decentralization of decision
and of individual responsibility is even greater, perhaps, than
the nineteenth century supposed; and the reaction against the
appeal to self-interest may have gone too far. But, after all,
individualism, if it can be purged of its defects and abuses, is
the best safeguard of personal liberty in the sense, that, compared with any other system, it greatly widens the field of
personal choice. It is also the best safeguard of the variety of
life, which emerges precisely from the extended field of personal choice, and the loss of which is the greatest of all losses
of the homogeneous or totalitarian state. For this variety preserves the traditions which embody the most secure and successful choices of former generations; it colors the present with the
diversification of its fancy.1>
"Purged of its defects and abuses": there's the crux of the matter.
Can a system still recognizably capitalist endure after defects of inG
Ibid, p. 3 80.
Introduction' 9
come distribution, inadequate investment, excessive saving, and persistent unemployment are removed? How much individualism will
linger if personal incomes are equalized? How much independence
of choice will businessmen retain where government intervenes so
substantially in the investment decisions which are at the heart of
the entrepreneurial process? How much of that variety of life which
Keynes enjoyed for himself as much as he cherished it for others
can survive in the world of the giant organization?
In the perspective of this second, gloomier Keynes, the American
doctrinal situation possesses its ironies. Intelligent businessmen and
alert politicians have swallowed Keynesian techniques of monetary
manipulation and fiscal adjustment just about the time that these
measures give every sign of inadequacy. For increasingly the real
choices of public policy must be made among various versions of
private, publiC, and hybrid socialization. No socialist, President Eisenhower in a startling speech delivered just before the end of his term
in office alerted Americans to the dangers of undue influence from
the combination of military officials, defense contractors, and their
congressional allies who have acquired vested interests in the hardware of national security. Mr. Eisenhower feared that this increasingly effective coalition threatened to "involve the very structure
of our society." Occasionally truth issues from the mouths of ideological babes. For what the General was describing was the emergence in an uncomfortable form of Keynes' highly complex new
"compromises" by which public authority will co-operate with private
initiative." The defense-oriented industries-electronics, missiles, and
airframes-are government enterprises in everything but name and
profit distribution. The Communications Satellite Corporation, a
congressional creation of 1962, is a complicated mixture of the private
socialism of American Telephone and Telegraph and the public
socialism of the federal government. Inadequately, incompletely, and
muddle-headedly, the socialization of investment that Keynes favored
is indeed occurring and under a wide variety of auspices.
These speculations are not designed to deny that the main thrust
of the General Theory is in the direction of monetary and fiscal
policies. Still, it is odd that Keynes' interesting premonitions of our
world receive so little attention and that in the latest stage of Keynesian influence the version of Keynes which attracts the respect-
10
Robert Lekachman
PART ONE
The Man
The Theory
E. A. G. ROBINSON
13
14 . E. A. G. Robinson
worth's gentle Irish philosopher father and romantic Spanish mother,
the "yeoman farmers owning their own land back to the sixteenth
century and beyond, turning in the eighteenth century into thrifty
parsons and scholars" that produced the Paley stock from which
carne Mary Marshall. It was natural that his interest should have extended to--perhaps even have grown from-an interest in his own
forebears. As a schoolboy he had delved deeply into the history of
the Keynes family; and of late years he reverted to his interest in
them.
In his own immediate generation Maynard Keynes was completely
a product of Cambridge. His father, born in 1852 and still vigorous
today, carne as an undergraduate to Pembroke College, Cambridge,
with a scholarship in mathematics after completing a full degree
course at University College, London. Deserting mathematics at the
end of his first year, he was Senior Moralist in 1875, held a Fellowship at Pembroke from 1876 to 1882, and was University Lecturer
in Moral Science from 1884 to 191 r. To later generations he was
best known as Secretary of the Local Examinations and Lectures
Syndicate from 1892 to 1910, and thenceforward to 1925 as Registrary of the University. Pembroke elected him to an Honorary Fellowship in 191 r.
In Neville Keynes' day, and much later, the study of economics
lay within the Moral Sciences Tripos, and formed an important part
of it. He had himself been examined in that Tripos by Foxwell and
Jevons. When he took his degree, Sidgwick and Fawcett of the older
generation were in the ascendant, though Marshall, in his first creative period, was working out in Cambridge the system of analysis
which was privately printed in 1879. Neville Keynes lay between
the two generations. His most important work was his Formal Logic,
published in 1884, and, after many editions, still selling a few copies
each year when the remaining stock of sheets was destroyed in the
London blitz. To economists, however, he is better known as the
author of The Scope and Method of Political Economy, a book
which is in essence of the older generation. But he was, not only in
age, but also by association, the intimate of Marshall and the new
generation. Maynard Keynes, in his biographical notice of Marshall,
recorded how his father had watched and deplored, as his pupil and
colleague, "Marshall's obstinate refusal to understand where his
16 . E. A. C. Robinson
than in our more austere and egalitarian times. Maynard Keynes
suspected, with what warrant I know not, that there had been an
element of judicious and fortunate speculation in land at the time
that the railways were pushing westwards, followed by good and
skillful Victorian investment of the proceeds.
If we wish to go back still farther on the Keynes' side, the family,
like so many English families, had suffered its vicissitudes. Of Norman origin (the name of Keynes has been traced to one Guillaume
de Cahaignes, who came from a village of that name between Vire
and Bayeux), the family had at one time widespread estates, to
which their name in many cases, as at Horsted-Keynes and MiltonKeynes, still attaches. Included in their estates was Tilton, in Sussex,
which Maynard Keynes many years later acquired as a country
home. In the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries the family, clinging to the Catholic faith, bred Jesuits of ability and distinction;
Father John. Keynes was a Professor of Logic at Liege. But the
Catholic adherence ultimately involved the final loss of the estates,
already much reduced by the failure of male heirs and the marriage
of heiresses into other families. The Keyneses, as recusants, fell on
hard times, until, as in so many other cases, they re-emerged as part
of the middle-class stock of England.
On his mother's side Maynard Keynes was almost equally a child
of Cambridge. Indeed, he often claimed that he was the first son of
a union of a Cambridge Fellow with a member of Newnham.
Whether this is literally true I do not know; certainly Mary Paley,
of an earlier generation at Newnham, had married Alfred Marshall
in 1877, five years before Florence Brown married Neville Keynes,
and there were other such matches, but none, I believe, produced a
son. The year 1882 was a great year for matrimony; the University
Statute which had required Fellows to resign on marriage had that
year been repealed.
His mother sprang from a background as typically British as his
father. Her own father, the Reverend John Brown, D.D., was minister for thirty years of Bunyan's chapel at Bedford. The life that he
wrote in 1885 is still the best, the most authoritative, and the most
readable study of Bunyan. Dr. John Brown was famous in his generation both as preacher and as historian-he wrote a number of
books on the puritan movement and the pilgrim fathers-and was a
IS E. A. G. Robinson
like the common run of mankind. There was, however, one thing in
his make-up on which he would sometimes dwell: he was, improbable as it might seem in one of his intellectual gaiety and nimbleness, utterly and completely English. And sometimes, in days of
stress, that Englishness would unexpectedly peep out.
3
20
E. A. G. Robinson
22
E. A. C. Robinson
At this time he was a forceful and pungent speaker, a little inclined when excited to stutter. The mellow charm of utterance that
belonged to his later days was not yet his. But the Cambridge Review
describes his speech on retirement from the Presidency, on the
motion "That this House views with impatience the prolonged existence of the present (the Balfour) government" as "in his best
style-cool, logical, and yet full of a regard primarily and above all
for the highest and best moral principles of statesmanship. We lose
no ordinary speaker in Mr. Keynes, but one who raises the tone of
any debate he may take part in"; and the less restrained Granta records that "his speech was cool and well reasoned, yet with just
sufficient passion to carry conviction." The written record is supported by the photograph which hangs on the wall of the Union
Society-a picture of a young man with burning and penetrating
eyes, a thin and angular face, and already the little bushy moustache
that he carried through the rest of his life.
The energies that Maynard Keynes devoted to the Union were,
at least in more distant retrospect, not misdirected. He had come to
Cambridge with a very considerable Eton reputation as a mathematician. But it fairly quickly became apparent that by the exacting
standards of Cambridge he was not in that narrow superlative class
which alone can hope to achieve fame in the field of pure mathematics. In his own year at King's, W. M. Page was his superior.
Keynes' mathematical interests lay rather in the borderland between
mathematics and the philosophical problems which were familiar to
him through his father and his father's friends. To say this is not
to suggest that the young Keynes was idle; he worked seriously, but
not with that all-exclusive devotion which gave to a familiar walk
to the bare outskirts of Cambridge the name of Senior Wrangler'S
Grind-the limit for which a senior wrangler might tear himself
from his exacting labors. It was still the day of mathematical coaching, though Routh and the famous coaches of the nineteenth century were now gone. Maynard Keynes coached with Hobson of
Christ's, Senior Wrangler of 1878 and a famous Cambridge figure,
but possessed of one powerful disadvantage for Keynes: he coached
at nine o'clock, and locked his door against stragglers at ten minutes
past the hour; early rising was never easy, then or later, to Keynes,
and more than once Hobson had to be cut.
Keynes' absorbing interest at this stage of his life was politics. He
24 . E. A. C. Robinson
In the event Keynes was twelfth wrangler in a good, but not exceptional, year 0. E. Littlewood, now Rouse Ball Professor of
Mathematics at Cambridge, was 6rst)-a satisfactory result, but a
little disappointing to those who had formed high hopes of his mathematical abilities. This con6rmed his decision not to go on to Part II
of the Mathematics Tripos. For a time he toyed with the idea of
tackling the Economics Tripos, and with that in mind read for a
while pretty widely in the 6eld of economics. But in the end he
made up his mind to take the examination for the Civil Service, and
to postpone for the moment any attempt to write the Fellowship Dissertation, which was, then as later, a necessary preliminary to a
Fellowship at King's.
For most men entry into the Civil Service meant a year with a
London "crammer," usually Wren's. A very few dared the risks of
being an "auto-coach": Keynes, needless to say, ventured. And it is
little exaggeration to say that history has been changed by that decision. For it was while thus engaged in his fourth year at Cambridge
that he 6rst came into formal working contact with Cambridge economics. He decided to take in the Civil Service Examination, besides
mathematics, papers on political science, on ethics, metaphysics and
philosophy, on logic and psychology, and on economics. By way of
preparation for the last he went to some of Marshall's lectures, and
some scrappy notes of the lectures survive, covering a wide variety
of subjects; one is reminded of his comments, written many years
afterwards, on Marshall's methods of lecturing:
I think that the informality of his lectures may have increased
as time went on. Certainly in 1906, when I attended him, it
was impossible to bring away coherent notes.
More important, Keynes wrote, as did others who were going to
the course, the papers which Marshall (as Pigou also in a later generation) was accustomed to set, and Marshall, whose red ink comments
often submerge the author's original black, got a feeling of Keynes'
quality that was later to be important. His comment still survives on
one of Keynes' essays:
This is a very powerful answer. I trust your future career
may be one in which you will not cease to be an economist. I
should be glad if it could be that of an economist.
In the Civil Service his second place meant that he missed the
Treasury and was appointed to the India Office. He would sometimes in later life describe his days in the India Office as devoted to
26 . E. A. G. Robinson
the study of The Times in the morning and to the writing of his
fellowship dissertation in the afternoon. But this, as anyone who has
known Maynard Keynes' regrettable incapacity for idleness might
suppose, is a caricature with no more than an element of verisimilitude. He was posted first to the Military Department, where he
began work within a few days of the publication of the results, in
October 1906. He found his work interesting, but not particularly
congenial, and from time to time insufficient to fill his day. In March
1907 he was moved into the Revenue, Statistics, and Commerce Department, with little routine but very much to interest him. By the
following July the Permanent Secretary, Sir Arthur Godley, whose
affectionate interest in the young Keynes throws a happy sidelight
on the Civil Service of that day, was drawing the attention of John
Morley, Secretary of State, to a minute by Keynes, and Morley in
turn was asking Godley to tell Maynard Keynes that he regarded it
as "a performance of admirable promise."
Meanwhile Maynard Keynes was making good progress with his
fellowship dissertation. To that he devoted most of his evenings,
and on that account he refused the offer, and additional pay, of a
resident clerkship, which Godley had pressed upon him, even when
Godley, whose interest in his winning the fellowship was manifest,
urged that the duties of a resident clerk were in the main so nominal
as to involve no interruption of his work.
His dissertation was submitted for the Fellowship Election in
March 1908. To the considerable vexation of Maynard Keynes himself and to the surprise of his friends, he was not elected. At this
moment of disappointment, Maynard Keynes received an offer from
Marshall of a Lectureship in Economics with a salary of '100 attached to it. For some years Marshall had found the money for two
lectureships from his own pocket. After his retirement in 1908,
Professor Pigou continued for some years to do the same. Keynes
consulted Lowes Dickinson, and got from him the advice that, if he
came back into residence and revised his dissertation, his election
the next year was almost certain. He decided to burn his boats. Sir
Arthur Godley and his immediate superiors were full of regrets at
lOSing so promising a member of their staff, but full also of understanding. They remained his close friends, and when he was later
studying Indian finance did all in their power to help him.
28 . E. A. C. Robinson
from January, on Money, Credit, and Prices, to a third-year class.
Mr. Fay, who later went to these lectures, has clear recollections of
their clarity of argument, breadth of comprehension and wealth of
historical illustration. Thanks not a little to Keynes (in later years
he used to claim that at that time he was teaching more than half
the economics students in the University), Part II of Marshall's
tripos was working well. Between 1907 and 1914, with no more
than a handful of men and women in each year-there were nine
men and three women in 19 I o-it had produced, among others,
Walter Layton, Hugh Dalton, Frederick Lavington, Harold Wright,
Hubert Henderson, Dennis Robertson, Gerald Shove, Claud Guillebaud, Lynda Grier-a level of talent which, despite the addition of
an elephantine rump, the post-1914 years have never equaled.
Keynes' first economic writing on any large scale, apart from his
lectures, was the essay which won the Adam Smith Prize (after his
election to a fellowship) in 1909, entitled The Method of Index
Numbers. While it is possible to recognize in this essay certain
elements which later appeared in Book II of the Treatise on Money,
the main argument of that brilliant treatment would seem to be of
later date.
His first further advancement as an economist was his appointment as Editor of the Economic Journal in 19II. To all except the
inner circle of Cambridge economists he was still relatively unknown. He had published only one major article in the Journalthat on "Recent Economic Events in India"-and some few reviews, of which that of Irving Fisher's The Purchasing Power of
Money is by far the most substantial and interesting. He owed his
appointment mainly to Marshall's confident recommendation. But
his relative inexperience (he was still only twenty-eight in a society
in which then, as later, grayheads predominated) dictated the appointment of an editorial committee-Ashley, Cannan, Chapman,
Edgeworth-with which Edgeworth, his predecessor, had not been
shackled.
Shackles of any kind were never very effective in imprisoning
Maynard Keynes. Despite his committee, he acted, as was to be
expected, on his own. Some eighteen months before his death, when
he and I were wrestling together in the middle of a wartime Atlantic
crossing with a huge bundle of manuscripts sent to us for publica-
30 . E. A. C. Robinson
tance. First, his own contributions to the problems at issue were great
and significant: not only does the Report itself show obvious indications of his influence; it includes a very substantial Memorandum,
specifically attributed to his authorship, on Proposals for the Establishment of a State Bank in India, which won high commendation
from Alfred Marshall. Second, the experience of the Committee
greatly fortified and consolidated what was to prove Keynes' great
strength as an economist-his power to fuse rigid economic thinking
with a great mastery of practical and administrative detail. Third,
and in the event most important of all, the Commission brought him
into the closest touch with a number of persons who were greatly to
affect his subsequent life. The Chairman of the Commission was
Austen Chamberlain; among its members were Sir Robert Chalmers
(later Lord Chalmers), Permanent Secretary of the Treasury, Lord
Cable, Lord Kilbracken, Lord Faber, all three leading figures in the
contemporary world of commerce and finance, and the Secretary
of the Commission was Basil Blackett of the Treasury, then and
for many years a close and valuable friend. to Keynes. From the time
of the Commission he had measured himself against the greater
world and knew his stature; he moved, thenceforward, with the assurance that such knowledge can give.
5
When war came in 1914 it was in a world very different from that
of 1939. The Civil Service of the day was appropriate to a liberal
world in which the main objective of government was not to govern
inadvisedly. The expansions of the social services begun by Asquith's
administration and associated with the name of Lloyd George had
not yet proliferated into the organizational mazes of today. There
had not been planned beforehand any scheme of expansion to meet
the needs of a world war; indeed, many believed that a world war,
as we have twice since known it, was beyond the endurance of the
delicate organization of a modern economic State. The Treasury
itself was a small and very select body of officials, expert not so much
in finance or economics as in the making of economic and financial
decisions based on the best available technical advice. And, if one
may believe only part of the saga told by those who served then in a
junior capacity, many of the senior officials were the ripe products
32 . E. A. G. Robinson
violently assailed it when, after the war, the cancellation of these
debts was resisted. For, from his special knowledge of the purposes
and circumstances of the loans he knew well that the accumulations of inter-Allied debts reflected neither the inferior war efforts
of the debtors, nor the greater efforts of the lenders.
But apart from the problems of inter-Allied finance, Keynes was
also concerned, in the first war as in the second, with the wider
problems of external finance, with the problems of obtaining particular currencies-a field in which his dexterity became legendary
-and with the short as well as the longer-term problems of achieving
a balance of payments. In all this Keynes quickly proved himself a
master, and his standing in the Treasury rose rapidly. He was constantly occupied, in the first war as in the second, in major financial
negotiations with our Allies, and accompanied the Prime Minister,
the Chancellor of the Exchequer, or the Governor of the Bank of
England to numerous conferences in Paris and elsewhere; he only
at the last moment was detained from accompanying Lord Kitchener
on his fatal mission to Petrograd. In 1917 he received a C.B. (Companion of the Bath)-an honor seldom given to a temporary member
of the Civil Service; he owed it to the strongest possible pressure from
the Treasury after he had, as was thought, been improperly excluded. And by 1918 he had reached the rank of Acting Principal
Clerk-the contemporary equivalent of what has more recently
been known as Assistant Secretary; in the Treasury hierarchy of the
day only the two Joint Permanent Secretaries were above him. Both
his standing in the Treasury and his particular knowledge of the
details of external finance made him a natural choice as financial
representative of the Treasury at the Peace Conference.
6
His arrival in Paris divides the phase of apprenticeship and academic development from the phase of controversy in which Maynard
Keynes spent the rest of his life. And none of those controversies is
yet sufficiently resolved for us to dogmatize as between right and
wrong. The mere facts of his share in Versailles are quickly told.
Keynes, after conducting the first post-armistice discussions with
the Germans in regard to foodstuffs and other supplies, was in Paris
almost continually from January to early June 1919. He was there
34 .
E. A. G. Robinson
36 . E. A. G. Robinson
in itself illogical and absurd. To understand his own opinion,
that it "is not practically right or possible," it is necessary to look
at the general basis of his economic philosophy as set forth in
his Chapter II ("Europe before the War") and in scattered
passages elsewhere throughout the work.
Mr. Robertson was, I am convinced, right in seeing that the book
was rooted in Keynes' philosophical view of the fundamental nature
of the European economy. First, despite its successful weathering of
the war, it was a "delicate organization" (the first words with which
Keynes opens his description). Its restoration was therefore the
easier the less it was mutilated and changed, and the fewer the problems of adaptation enforced upon it. Second, while before 1914
(in Keynes' words) "the interference of frontiers and of tariffs was
reduced to a minimum" and "the various currencies, which were all
maintained on a stable basis in relation to gold and to one another,
facilitated the easy flow of capital and of trade to an extent the full
value of which we only realize now, when we are deprived of its
advantages," and again "over this great area there was an almost
absolute security of property and person," nevertheless the existence
and whereabouts of frontiers are to be regarded as a matter of first
importance. Mr. Robertson's comments go so deep to the roots not
only of the matters then at issue, but also of much of Keynes' subsequent work, that I must quote him in extenso:
Now the startling thing about this analysis of the economic
structure of Europe is that it is in some respects very different
from, and indeed diametrically opposed to, that of pre-war optimistic, free-trade, pacific philosophy, and resembles much
more nearly that upon which, consciously or unconsciously, the
edifices of protectionism, militarism and imperialism are reared
(question-begging words must be used for brevity's sake). To
begin with, political frontiers are not, in Mr. Keynes' view,
economically unimportant, but charged with significance, especially if they be multiplied. The transfer of a province from
one sovereignty to another is not an economic irrelevance; Governments do seek to impose barriers and prohibitions and confiscations of private property, and they can enforce them.
Secondly, the international division of labour between Europe
and the rest of the world is not, as by our fathers, hailed as an
unquestionable dispensation of Providence, but is seen to be
fraught with peril and instability. The 'devil' of Malthus is un-
38 . E. A. G. Robinson
negligible as compared with the greater forces at work, and did not
make a return to 1913 as impossible of achievement as some other
objective.
The more powerful indictment of Keynes' position has come more
recently, and, as might have been expected, from a Frenchman. In
his book The Carthaginian Peace or the Economic Consequences of
Mr. Keynes, Etienne Mantoux has asked the question that in some
form or other we have all asked ourselves during the war: If our
treatment of Germany in 1919 had been different, could we have
escaped 1939? The gravamen of Mantoux's charge is that Maynard
Keynes' debunking of the peace-makers was the source of all subsequent evil. The peace was to be looked at as a unity. Woodrow Wilson, both in his Fourteen Points and in subsequent negotiations,
made self-determination supreme over the balance of power. Such
a fundamental change was untenable save on the condition of American willingness to underwrite the security of France. When American willingness was in the balance, Keynes made both the peace
and the peace-makers a laughingstock, gave impulse to American
desires to be rid of European entanglements, and effectively destroyed the whole security system. From that moment on, in Mantoux's view, both the re-emergence of Germany and the impossibility
in such an event of saving Wilson's newly created States in Central
Europe were inescapable, as Foch had pointed out in 1919.
One would like to have heard Keynes' own rejoinder to Mantoux,
for the charge was not wholly new, and he must already have considered it in his mind; Winston Churchill, in The World Crisis,
had argued that Keynes' political judgment was in 1919 greatly
inferior to his economic judgment. I cannot pretend to know what
Keynes would have answered. He had certainly said more than once
in my hearing during the last war that the fault of Versailles was
that it had failed either to be sufficiently Carthaginian or sufficiently
liberal. And he would certainly not have accepted any suggestion
that the world that emerged from Versailles was the world that he
was seeking to create. Would a world in which the full rigors of the
reparations clauses were retained in all their unachievable nonsense
have proved a better world? Could the Allies, in Keynes' silence,
have retained a unanimity of passion to destroy Germany economically? Would public opinion in America, Britain, and other countries
40 E. A. G. Robinson
the belief that it might ultimately be mitigated. From beneath a
Georgian skin there peeped out from time to time an almost Victorian
sense of moral purpose and obligation; neither Eton, nor Cambridge,
nor Bloomsbury had obliterated wholly his heritage from generations
of Keyneses and Browns. And in all this Maynard Keynes was distinguished fundamentally, on the one hand from the cynicism that
insensibly permeates the thinking of any but the most pachydermatous of civil servants, on the other hand from the Hippancy which had
affected so many of the Georgians. The civil servant, regarding international negotiation as an ever-continuing process of give and take, is
apt to think his purpose achieved if in winning his prime objectives
he has not yielded too much on secondary objectives: if today's solution is nonsense, it represents, none the less, the best that is achievable today; tomorrow will demonstrate to the world that he was
right and others wrong, and thus tomorrow he can really get right
what the world is not ready to put right today. It was fatally easy so
to regard the problems of peace-making: frontiers are difficult to
change, let us aim first to get the best solution of frontier problems;
reparations are easy to change, if the world is not ripe for a sensible
solution let us have a nonsense solution and leave it to time to get it
right; a thoroughly bad and utterly unworkable plan may even be
preferable for the moment to a moderately bad and almost workable
plan. Keynes would never admit the initial hypothesis of the civil
servant-that public opinion that made policies possible or impossible
was itself immutable and impervious to reason. The dramatic swing
of public opinion, largely the result of Keynes' own writings, was to
demonstrate his rightness in this view.
He was equally removed from the Hippancy of the Georgians. It
would have been easy for him, as for them, to have escaped from the
whole confusion of political muddle-headedness and of time-serving
defeatism by retreating into the exercises of the intellect, into the
arcana of mathematical philosophy, or of the pure theories of economics. It was his passionate care for the fate of his fellow men and
his sense that economics shorn of the underlying realities is void that
forbade such an escape.
And it was this Victorian element of moral purpose which contributed not a little to the inHuence that he exercised, then and later,
over his colleagues and pupils. If one pursued as his devoted adher-
42 .
E. A. G. Robinson
lems of the world. Alarming because if one read a paper one was
likely to nnd one's undergraduate efforts (I speak from painful memory) being dissected by a visiting Mr. Hawtrey, destroyed by the full
power of Frank Ramsey's dialectical analysis, and when one had
maintained one's postion to the best of one's ability for some three
hours, Keynes would sum up in friendly but utterly devastating
fashion-I learned a certain sympathy with the prisoner waiting for
the judge's black cap. Alarming also because if it was not one's turn
to read the paper, one must draw a number from the hand of the
Secretary, and take one's turn on the hearthrug to discuss a paper on
a subject about which one might well feel an embarrassing ignorance
in the presence of some of the most critical minds of Europe. But a
wonderful training, because in Keynes' presence there were certain
forms of nonsense that one did not enjoy perpetrating once, and remembered for life not to perpetrate a second time.
Through his Club, Keynes knew intimately right down to his
illness in 1937 all the best of each generation of Cambridge economists, and exercised a more personal influence upon them than anyone else. The very great influence of Professor Pigou on the whole
technique of Cambridge economic thought in our generation was of
a rather different character-exercised less personally and more
through his writings and lectures. And through the Club we insensibly acquired certain elements in Keynes' own approach to the
problems of economics. In the early years his interests were almost
wholly in the practical problems of economic policy. I can remember
very few papers on purely theoretical issues, though we covered a
very wide range of questions. The choice was mainly our own, made
in consultation with the undergraduate Secretary, but our tastes were
in some measure the consequence of his.
My recollections of Keynes in the early twenties are of a formidable, and at moments somewhat intolerant, personality. But we were
his allies contra mundum. We could only be effective allies if we
learned to eschew nonsense. None of us would willingly talk nonsense in his presence. But if he was intolerant of nonsense, he was,
nevertheless, eclectic in his dislikes of nonsense. In the young, and
even more in the not-so-young, he particularly disliked some sorts of
pretentious nonsense. On the other hand, he could sometimes be surprisingly tolerant of honest stupidity. I well remember, two or three
44 . E. A. C. Robinson
doctor and the right oculist, and taking infinite pains to see that I
should not be handicapped by it.
But there was, curiously, another side to Keynes. I have said that
he hated stupidity, not only with esthetic but also with a moral
hatred: stupidity prevented the accomplishment of what was best for
the world. And it was for this reason, I think, that Keynes, even to
the end of his life, did not possess the power of living in wholly
amicable disagreement with those whose views on essentials differed
from his own. Many of those who were at one time his close friends
found themselves, because their views and his diverged, for a time at
least his enemies. In many cases the enmity was short-lived. Some of
his earliest opponents-among them Lloyd George and Winston
Churchill-became later his friends and allies. And Keynes was always one who, in retrospect, appreciated redoubtable opponents
above ineffectual allies. Others lingered unhappily in antagonism.
His rare lectures and the Political Economy Club did not exhaust
Keynes' contribution to Cambridge life. Ordinarily in the 1920'S he
spent three days in the week in Cambridge-Saturday, Sunday, and
Monday. But into those three days he managed to crowd as much
work as most men did in a week. He became Second Bursar of King's
in 1919. From 1924 to the end of his life he was First Bursar, and
over those years carried a heavy responsibility for the finances of his
college. The remarkable success with which he handled the college
finances, as also his own, is well known. He left King's with financial
resources to match, almost for the first time, its great architectural and
intellectual heritage.
Apart from his services to King's, he played an important part also
in the affairs of the University, occasionally in matters of university
finance, where his criticism and advice were valued; more continuously on the Faculty Board of Economics and Politics, of which for a
short period he was chairman, and in whose counsels he always
played a leading part. The recent establishment of a Department of
Applied Economics in the University for statistical and other applied
research was largely due to his efforts.
Great as were his services to Cambridge over these years, from
1920 onwards Cambridge could not provide a sufficient outlet for his
activities. The days in each week that were devoted to London
covered a range of activity even greater than the days at Cambridge.
46 . E. A. G. Robinson
morning's work in bed before getting up, and my picture will always
be of him sitting propped up in bed by many pillows, either in his
room in King's or later in his Rat in St. Edward's Passage, a bed-table
half across the bed, books, manuscripts, the Sunday papers scattered
about the bed, and on chairs or tables by his bedside. And (here I am
anticipating) after his illness Lydia forms an essential part of the
picture, letting me in, giving me a ration of time, slipping in and out,
and chasing me out when, despite my best endeavors to fulfill her
orders, Maynard had kept me gossiping beyond the permitted hour.
In writing of Keynes as editor I have inevitably run far ahead of
the years. In the 1920'S the Journal filled only a fraction of the time
that he was in London. There were two-or maybe three-other
main calls on his time besides economics: his business interests; writing and speaking on the current economic issues of the day; his literary and other pursuits. May I take them in tum?
Keynes' principal business interest in the early postwar years was
the National Mutual Insurance Company, of which he became
Chairman in 1921; among his fellow directors were his old friends
Walter Layton and O. T. Falk. Both to the problems of insurance
and of investment Keynes devoted a great deal of thought. His theories of investment were neither orthodox nor always acceptable to
more conservative minds. His speeches to the Annual Meeting of the
Company were often used by him as an opportunity for discussion
both of the general economic situation and the particular problems of
investment. Largely under Keynes' inRuence, the National Mutual
led the way in increasing the proportion of equities and industrial
shares generally that it was thought proper for such organizations to
hold. Around Keynes' theories of investment there have from time to
time been acute controversies. As to his Rair for investment there can
be no doubt. The prosperity of the National Mutual, of his college,
of the Royal Economic Society, of his own finances, all bear ample
witness.
At a later date he became for a time director also of the Independent Investment Company, originally founded to exploit certain new
theories of investment which he had helped to develop, and in later
years of the Provincial Insurance Company.
A quite different type of interest was represented by his chairmanship of the Nation and Athenreum weekly newspaper, and later by
48 . E. A. G. Robinson
ahead of his time. Devaluation was as inevitable as a scaling down of
reparations; the political difficulties were immense; in a world which
regards the Hexibilities of Bretton Woods as a modern straitjacket, it
is difficult to recapture in retrospect the sanctity of the pre-I914 rates.
But my recollection is that we who were then his pupils thought of
the Tract as a volume which did little more than conveniently bring
together ideas which he had for some time been disseminating.
The most important outlet for his views on European reconstruction was the series of special supplements of the Manchester Guardian Commercial Supplement, entitled Reconstruction in Europe,
which appeared under Keynes' general editorship from April 20,
1922 to January 4, 1923. They were of great contemporary importance; first, because they provided a forum in which Keynes, Cassel,
and others who were trying to work out the underlying economic
principles were publishing much of their thought; second, becausea triumph for Keynes' editing-the real experts from all over Europe
in the different fields of industry, finance, commerce and the like
were here engaged, if not always in cooperative thinking, at least in
sharing a single cover-for contributors included Prime Ministers,
Finance Ministers, heads of National Banks, heads of great international industrial and commercial concerns, as well as the world
experts in population, transport, exchange operation, whatever it
might be. Keynes' principal contributions to them included essays on
currency stabilization, on purchasing-power parity, on the forward
market in exchanges, on the Geneva Conference, on Russia, on inflation as a method of taxation, on the social consequences of changes
in the value of money, on population, on the possibilities of a settlement of reparations, on speculation in the German mark and a final
conclusion and summary on the underlying principles of European
reconstruction. Thus in many ways the Tract was no more than a
further statement of ideas that he had already here traversed.
Apart from his contributions to the Manchester Guardian Supplements, Keynes was writing or influencing writing elsewhere. He contributed over these years a large number of articles to the Manchester
Guardian on various questions, mainly related in the earlier years to
reparations; he attended the Genoa Conference in 1922, and contributed a series of brilliant articles on it to the Manchester Guardian.
By 1925 by far the greatest outstanding monetary problem of
Europe was the future of the pound. Already, in the Tract on Mone-
50 . E. A.
C. Robinson
for himself and the world. Nevertheless, the year 1925 divides broadly
the years of reconstruction from the subsequent phases both of European economic history and of Keynes' personal life.
And I think the year 1925 was significant in Maynard Keynes' own
life in another very important sense. On August 4, 1925, he married
Lydia Lopokova, brought up in the Imperial Ballet School at St.
Petersburg, great dancer and even greater personality-as remarkable
in her world as Maynard in his. No ordinary woman could have provide4 as she did the perfect partner to Maynard. Lydia, herself a
great authority, assured in her judgment in those arts in which her
knowledge and experience were supreme, never attempted to rival
Maynard in those other arts that were completely his. And it was
under Lydia'S hand that the passionate missionary of the twenties
gradually mellowed and grew first into the scholar and creative
thinker of the thirties and then into the philosopher and statesman of
the forties.
8
52 E. A. G. Robinson
Apart from Mr. Robertson, it was probably Wicksell who exercised
most influence on these early stages of Keynes' thought. Keynes was
mainly instrumental in securing the translation of Geldzins und
Giiterpreise into English and its publication by the Royal Economic
Society. In the Treatise he makes considerable use of Wicksell's
ideas, and if he later abandoned them, it was with a consciousness
of having advanced with their aid. But apart from Wicksell his debts
to writers outside the English language were inconsiderable. He
read German indeed, but not with great facility, and he said on one
occasion that he had never comprehended through the medium of
German an idea that was new to him.
While there is little doubt that 1925 had seen the first planting of
the seeds of certain new ideas in Keynes' mind, it was some time before they germinated and bore fruit. The years 1926-8 are in
retrospect, and measured by Keynes' own standards, relatively barren
of academic output, though certainly not of activity or thought. We
find him concerned with many of the aftereffects of the return to
gold-the embargo on foreign lending, the failure, implicit in the
terms on which the general strike and the coal strike were settled, to
implement the declared policy of deflation and wage reduction-as
well as with more general problems of the treatment of monopolies,
and programs of national development. He was an active member
of the group of Liberals which produced in 1928 the Liberal Industrial Inquiry under the title of Britain's Industrial Future, and
several chapters in it were mainly drafted by him. Included in his
other writings in this period are his attempts to shift the Liberal
Party from its traditions of laissez faire and to steer it down a middle
course between doctrinaire socialism and uncritical individualism.
From 1927 onwards, however, Keynes was already working at the
Treatise on Money, which appeared in 1930, and the ideas which he
printed there were progressively developing. Each year from 1926
onwards he gave a short course of eight lectures, usually in the
Michaelmas Term, on the Theory of Money, and year by year the
form and content of his ideas developed. But as late as 1927-8 the
theoretical structure was, so far as I can discover, of an essentially
"velocity of circulation" design, though with important improvements
of his own. Much of the final version of the Treatise on Money is still
comparatively little changed from this earlier pattern; Book V, which
54
E. A. G. Robinson
56 . E. A. G. Robinson
truth with as enthusiastic a zest as if he were demolishing the work
of his worst enemy.
In the years following the publication of the Treatise Keynes
continued his practice of giving eight lectures annually, usually in
the Michaelmas Term. Each year he gave us the development of
his ideas to date. And these lectures became something wholly unlike
anything else that I have ever known in Cambridge lectures. Apart
from the third-year undergraduates, to whom officially the course
was addressed, there were to be found there the whole body of research students, at least half the members of the Faculty, a visiting
Professor or two from America, Australia or where you will, and on
occasion a few spies Cor should they be called in the modern jargon
"members of the fifth column"?) from London, Oxford, or elsewhere.
Gradually year by year the essential features of the General Theory
emerged. Thus, when it was finally published in 1936, Cambridge
at least knew fairly well what to expect.
To the world outside, however, the General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money came as a shock. Keynes had meant to
shock. An ordinary book, wooing with sweet reason, would not have
fulfilled his purpose. The ideas that happened to be congenial might
have been accepted, the others discarded according to taste. Keynes
was firmly convinced, as he said in his preface, that "if orthodox
economics is at fault, the error is to be found not in the superstructure, which has been erected with great care for logical consistency,
but in a lack of clearness and of generality in the premisses." He had,
as he saw it, to force his fellow economists to decide whether in toto
they were for or in toto against. For if he was right in his analysis,
the basic assumptions of the automatism of the economic system were
at fault. Because he believed it necessary that economists should face
these issues, he deliberately2 heightened differences and emphasized
controversy.
This involved saying things that hurt about men that he had admired-including in their number Alfred Marshall. It involved also
that subsequent discussion was conducted very much in the atmosphere of the revivalist meeting: "Brother, are you saved?" I am not
2
58 . E. A. C. Robinson
that it is wrong to criticize or change or develop. I can conceive no
memorial to Keynes' teaching that he would more passionately have
assailed.
9
60 . E. A. G. Robinson
nection for granted. But in the twenties it was far less evident. In his
earlier days Keynes was primarily an applied economist, in the same
sense that Adam Smith was, developing and using the techniques of
economic thought on the practical problems of the day. In Cambridge, at least, he taught our generation how to do this.
Second, we owe to Keynes more than to any of his contemporaries
in England the integration of the analytical and the statistical approaches to economics. While he took little personal part in the
minor refinements of econometrics, he followed closely the work of
the statisticians, and it was his natural inclination to approach any
problem from the angle of measurement of the phenomena. He was
for many years prominent in the affairs of the Royal Statistical
Society, and took a lead in the establishment of the London and
Cambridge Economic Service. My impression is that he owed more
of his own original ideas to the study of other men's figures than to
a study of other men's writings. He had a curious sixth sense about
figures, and would instinctively reject a figure which he felt could
not be right. His gifts of forecasting and his sense of orders of magnitude were sometimes uncanny. But just as he was sceptical of ideas
that could not be verified by measurement, so he was sceptical also
of the adventures of the statisticians into the worlds of correlations
built on insufficient logical foundations.
Third, and most important, Keynes insisted, both with himself
and with his pupils, in making us search out the assumptions which
underlay our argument. I remember him saying at a meeting of his
Club early in the twenties that the most interesting study in relation
to the classical economists was to discover the implicit assumptions
on which they were working. His own later work showed that in
very many cases we were implicitly assuming that more of one thing
was conditional on accepting less of another-a state that was not
universally, or even most frequently, true. It was, I myself firmly believe, a great step forward in economic thought when Keynes insisted
that we should have a general theory-a theory which was valid not
only with full (or near-full) employment, but also with unemployment-and that we should know quite clearly which of the propositions of economics were universally valid, and which were valid only
in conditions in which it might be true that an increase of one activity was possible only at the expense of another activity. In the
62 . E. A. C. Robinson
attack elsewhere. But in the end his victory was complete. Full employment of resources has become the national objective; some
would say it has obscured other objectives. Ordered flexibility of exchange rates has become the agreed world system. Low interest rates
have become the official policy to the extent that former advocates
now begin to fear.
Keynes was consistent also, possibly overconsistent, in another
sense. He began life as a Liberal. He belonged by birth, upbringing
and natural abilities to the class for which the carriere ouverte is
the natural aim. He was not a stagnant Liberal; he sought to prevent Liberalism becoming a backward-looking and uncritical worship of laisser faire; he did not in any narrow sense regard the
criterion of the market place as final and decisive, and in an essay
in 1932 in The Political Quarterly he argued for the economically
unsound as the ultimate and distant ideal, to be reached through
the economically sound. But he belonged to the world of reason. He
was possessed of an inherent distaste for -isms and shibboleths and
emotionally reached views. He was never anti-Socialist, but he was
anti-doctrinaire. I do not think that the fashionable school of historians who believe that a glimpse of a man's passbook can explain
the whole of his character will have an easy task with Keynes. He
had made himself rich, it is true, in a Liberal world; but he had
nothing to fear in Socialism; he would have been a perfectly loyal,
happy and financially carefree Governor of the Bank and the Fund,
or whatever might come his way, in a Socialist world or in any other.
His objectives were included in their objectives. His political Liberalism was seldom obtruded in later life. I do not know (and I doubt
if anyone knows) what his final views would have been upon the
present moves towards nationalization. Neither, I suspect, wholly
unfavorable nor wholly favorable. Yet it was natural to him, in
trying to make a framework within which the world economic
system might develop, to think of it in the essentially Liberal terms
of markets and prices and discounts and borrowing rates. And when
the General Theory was interpreted as an argument for closing
national economic systems, or his pupils expressed scepticism whether
interest rates could ever provide a wholly perfect and effective working link between the volume of saving and the volume of investment in full employment, Keynes' fundamental belief in the Liberal
In 1937 Keynes, who for some years had been in better health
than at any stage in his life, fell seriously ill with a form of heart
trouble difficult to diagnose, but ascribed to some poison in his system. The overwork of many years almost certainly contributed. For
some months he was completely laid up, and reduced his work to a
minimum; included in that minimum was always at least an oversight of the editing of the Economic Journal. While, after the period
of rest, he recovered somewhat, it remained necessary for him to
take careful precautions against excessive strain, and to conserve
his efforts for what was most important. The difficult task of restraining him from the impulses of his own energies and from the importunities of others fell upon his wife. We all learned the importance
of obeying her behests, if he was to carry on; but neither for him
nor for us was it easy. Over the last years before the war he was
very much of an invalid, and one had almost come to think of him
remaining as such for the rest of his days. He cut down permanently
a certain amount of the work that he had been doing in the past. He
resigned his Chairmanship of the National Mutual, and he spent
far less of his time in London, and more of it than in previous years
in Cambridge or at the house that he acquired at Tilton in Sussex,
where he was expanding his farming activities and was still able
to exercise a general supervision.
12
64 . E. A. C. Robinson
remarkable collection of the work and papers of Isaac Newton, and
of works on alchemy bearing on the study of his manuscripts.
He had a small but interesting collection of modern paintings,
particularly of the French School, and for very long his close friendship with Roger Fry, Duncan Grant, Clive and Vanessa Bell, and
others meant that he was in close touch with the leaders of English
criticism and painting. His rooms in King's had been decorated for
him by Duncan Grant and Vanessa Bell.
His interest in the ballet went back to the early years in London
just after the first war. His more intimate touch with it began after
he first got to know Lydia Lopokova, and developed during the
following years, and with and through her he played a large part
in the growth of ballet in England. From 1932 he was Treasurer of
the Camargo Society, and helped as much as anyone to discover
the happy mean between artistic insolvency and a conventional popularity rewarded by financial success, and it was he also who helped
unobtrusively to achieve, in 1932, the union of the resources of the
Camargo, the Vic-Wells Ballet, the Rambert Ballet and others which
first gave us British performances of distinction. Arnold Haskell was
writing in that year:
I do not suggest that Mr. J. M. Keynes is the new Diaghileff,
he has other work which he might mistakenly regard as more
important, but he has succeeded with tact and energy in centralising the available talent, a gigantic task; and to that extent
the season is very much his.
Many economists the world over will remember, moreover, the performance in 1933 at Covent Garden in honor of the Delegates of
the World Economic Conference, which owed its conception and
organization very much to Maynard Keynes, and equally they will
remember Lydia Lopokova's delicious performance in it.
If in later years the ballet became better able to carryon without
Keynes' help, that was largely a result of his work during those
critical early years. In 1936 there was opened in Cambridge the Arts
Theatre which Keynes built himself and later transferred to a trust
representative both of university and town. He was chairman of
the directors, and while he found the perfect manager in Mr. Norman Higgins, he gave also himself much time to its problems, both
artistic and financial.
66 . E. A. G. Rohinson
Keynes, and I was bidden to meet him. Shortly before he arrived I
brought Keynes the news that our much beloved Mary Marshall
was thought to be dying, and that it was believed that one thing
alone could save her-a message from us all giving her the call to
live. No one but Keynes could write it, and I besought him to do so.
With a word of apology, Keynes left me to entertain Professor
Schumpeter, and sat down for a moment at a writing table in the
crowded Combination Room. On half a sheet of writing paper, without an erasure, in no more than a couple of minutes, he wrote a
message that for beauty and simplicity could have been equalled by
no man that I know. Mary Marshall always declared that she owed
her recovery to that message. I wonder whether it remains among
her papers.
Nor do I feel certain that Keynes' speed of work was excessive.
When I first started to do research and was finding a beginner's
difficulty in getting my ideas on paper, Keynes urged me to follow
his own rule of life-to try every day to write three pages. He did
not always keep to this rule of life, but he was persuaded (and
surely he was right) that mental constipation was best cured by
regular writing. Richard Braithwaite has confirmed that Keynes told
him that his best work was written at the rate of about a thousand
words a day. Does that represent undue haste? Is the average speed
of fifty to a hundred words a day that most of us seem to achieve
a reflection of our superior scholarship or of inferior industry and
capacity? In measuring the rate of Keynes' work one must remember,
moreover, that from 1920 onwards routine lecturing played no part
in his life. There was practically nothing in Keynes' economic work
that was not ultimately destined, often after very substantial revision,
for publication.
That Keynes compressed much into his life is undeniable. It is
undeniable also that he suffered much from interruptions, though
I doubt whether his opportunities for continuous work were inferior
to those of the ordinary university teacher. He gave himself unstintingly to his friends and, whatever the load upon him, was always welcoming and apparently unhurried. All of us relied upon
him, consulted him, and made no major decision in our lives without
him. He loved to entertain, loved good conversation, to meet people
and to argue with them. Would it have been better if he had been
When war broke out in 1939 Keynes was still a sick man. None
of us imagined it possible that he should play a part in this war
comparable to the part that he had played in 1914-18. Nevertheless,
within a few weeks of the outbreak of war he had developed ideas
of the scale of the British war potential and of the methods of war
finance which were later to form the basis of the whole operation
of the British war economy. The study of the problems of war potential he published in the Economic Journal of December 1939.
His proposals for financing the war were first read to the Marshall
Society in Cambridge and subsequently published, first in The
Times and later in the form of a pamphlet How to Pay for the War,
which had very wide currency.
This pamphlet had a twofold importance. First, it approached the
problems of war finance not from the orthodox, budgetary, angle,
but from the angle, implicit in all his work on employment problems,
of total income and total demand. Second, it included the proposal
that as a third source of war finance, additional to taxation and voluntary saving, we should call to our aid compulsory saving.
The second of these-the proposal for compulsory saving-naturally provoked discussion, and even antagonism. It was not finally
adopted until the Budget of 1941. But the first-the approach to
war finance from the angle of the national income-involved no
68 . E. A. C. Robinson
similar political problems. Some of us were already in Government
service, and Keynes' ideas were known to us, both directly and
through the paper to the Marshall Society which I, at least, had
heard. When How to Pay for the War was published we quickly
convinced our seniors that it was right to set up a small section in
the Cabinet Office to improve our national income estimates and to
make, with all the resources of government, the calculations which
Erwin Rothbarth had attempted, not wholly successfully because
of the limits of information, to make for Keynes. Within a few weeks
James Meade and Richard Stone were at work, and the first fruits
of Keynes' original idea and of their labors was available in time to
influence the Budget of 194 I.
But by then Keynes, in defiance of all expectations, was already
himself at work in the Treasury. When the Chamberlain administration was succeeded by that of Winston Churchill in summer 1940,
Sir Kingsley Wood became Chancellor of the Exchequer, and to
strengthen the Treasury he appointed Keynes and Lord Catto in
July 1940 as his advisers. They lived in adjacent rooms, and quickly
became so intimate that the door between them seemed to be perpetually open, and the irreverent of the Treasury soon came to know
them as Catto and Doggo.
In the Treasury, Keynes had this time no specific responsibilities.
He was there to help the Chancellor, and in practice to share some of
the heavier burdens with the Second Secretaries, on whom fall the
main responsibilities for the ordinary day-by-day business of the
Treasury. In the earlier years he was much concerned with the problems of internal finance, and there can be little doubt that the budget
speeches of 1941 and 1942 were considerably influenced by Keynes.
But increasingly Keynes became concerned with postwar problems.
The broader problems of internal war finance had by 1942 in the
main been reduced to order. In the British system the general
economic planning of the war was by then conducted almost exclusively in terms of the real resources, in manpower allocations, in
raw materials allocations, in shipping allocations, in building allocations, and the like; the needs of civil consumption were taken into
account at that stage, and the problems of war finance increasingly
became, as Keynes had argued that they should, those of seeing that
taxation and savings mopped up so much as possible of the redundant
70 E. A. G. Robinson
Loan that his journeyman's work at the Treasury showed its
full achievement. There was no figure that Keynes used at
Washington whose application to the present and future life of
the English people he could not illustrate from his knowledge
of the practical details of government and administration.
Conferences in Keynes' room at the Treasury were seminar
classes in adult education and his new, but middle-aged, pupils
at the Treasury experienced something of the same sense of
excitement as the younger men who had worked with Keynes
when he was a teacher at Cambridge.
Even on the many journeys he made abroad he took care to
receive and read regularly the most important of the current
papers reaching the Treasury. The feel and touch of things was
to him a large part of the area of government.
In the course of 1940, moreover, the transition of Keynes from
outside critic, outspoken, fearless and therefore disreputable, to inside adviser and maker of policy, respectable and acceptable, had
been advanced an important stage by his election to the Court of
the Bank of England. His own immediate and irreverent comment
was: "I am not sure which of us is being made an honest woman
of-the Old Lady or me." But, with his quick power of absorbing
the atmosphere of an institution so soaked in tradition as the Bank,
the arch-critic was soon its most loyal and sincere defender, and no
appointment, I suspect, ever gave him more real pleasure. The
transition was furthered when Maynard Keynes was raised to the
Peerage in the Birthday Honours in June 1942, becoming Lord
Keynes of Tilton, in the County of Sussex; and the Government,
when he broke a long period of silence in May 1943, gained a powerful spokesman in the House of Lords, who possessed all the special
knowledge of a Minister and none of a Minister's departmental
responsibility. The College of Heralds appended to his Arms the
very appropriate punning motto "me tutore tutus eris." In the following March, the Borough of Cambridge elected him to the dignified medieval sinecure of High Steward, a successor to a great
line which included Sir Francis Bacon, Oliver Cromwell, Lord
Macaulay. And if he had not died, he was to have received the
signal honor of the Order of Merit. Truly had Cassandra become
the Delphic Oracle.
There was one other honor that came to Keynes which he prized,
perhaps, even above all the rest. In 1940 he was elected a Fellow
of Eton as representative of the Head Master, Lower Master, and
That it was a share and not sole authorship will be plain to anyone
who knows the methods of Civil Service criticism and collaboration.
But may I quote Keynes himself CHouse of Lords, Official Report,
May I 8, 1943)? "To associate it too closely with a particular name is,
I venture to say, to do it an injustice. It has been the subject of intensive criticism and of progressive amendment and the final result is the
embodiment of the collective wisdom of Whitehall and of experts and
officials throughout the Commonwealth." This is not the only matter
in which outside critics would seem to attach to Lord Keynes or to
other individuals a personal responsibility which is cOlI!pletely alien
to a system in which many civil servants necessarily collaborate and
in which ultimate responsibility must rest with a Minister and with
the Cabinet.
72 . E. A. G. Robinson
Clearing Union (often called the Bancor or the Keynes' Plan), first
published in April 1943 almost simultaneously with an American
variation (known as the Unitas or White Plan).
The objective of the "Keynes' Plan", as of the other also, was to
secure the middle way that he had earlier pursued in the Tract on
Monetary Reform between exchange fixity and leaving exchanges
completely to the short-term forces of the market and of the political
and financial policy of individual countries. It was an essential part
of the Keynes' Plan that the responsibility of relative adjustment,
where the existing exchange and price relations did not provide a
basis for equilibrium, should be laid on creditors as well as debtors,
so that the pressure on the debtor to deBate and contract activity
and incomes should be mitigated.
The first stage of the process of attempting to reach wider international agreement was the examination of these proposals by the
experts, not only of Britain and the United States, but of certain
other countries also. This task, which occupied Keynes for several
months during the later part of 1943 and was finally completed
in the spring of 1944, resulted in a compromise scheme in which
the Keynes Clearing Union had given way to the White conception of a Fund, held in the currencies of the various participants-a
sort of international equalization fund-but in which other elements
of the Keynes Plan, which from the British point of view seemed
essential, had survived. The fruits of these labors were presented to
the British public in a fresh White Paper-A Statement of Principles for an International Monetary Fund-which included both
the Joint Statement agreed by all the experts, and explanatory notes
by the British representatives, making plain, in view of current
British criticism, that the substitution of a fund for a clearing union
now made unnecessary an international currency, that adequate arrangements were included to give elasticity of exchange rates, that
the scarce currency clause might be expected to have a powerful
effect in placing the onus of relative adjustment on creditor as well
as debtor, and finally that the difficulties of transition were provided
for.
It was inevitable that these modified proposals should represent
a compromise which would afford something less than the best
possible for Great Britain individually, were it possible to enforce
74 . E. A. G. Robinson
cident in the past with only academic connection with the projects
currently under discussion, the Americans never shared this view,
and many disillusionments on this side of the Atlantic were due to
the fact that this was not sufficiently appreciated.
The new compromise proposals that emerged from the discussions
of the experts at Washington were referred to a huge International
Conference, representative of forty-five nations, to be convened at
Bretton Woods in New Hampshire. But before it met another event
of moment had occurred in Keynes' public life. In May 1944 the
wartime Coalition Government published the White Paper on Employment Policy which was designed to shape its postwar plans in
this very important field. The White Paper was a triumph for Keynes
in a twofold sense. First, it represented the last stage in the progress
of the general ideas that Keynes had developed in the thirties from
the phase of the solitary voice in the wilderness to the phase of
orthodoxy. Keynes had often complained that it had taken well over
half a century for Adam Smith's ideas to move from the study to
the floor of the House of Commons. His own had made the passage
in less than fifteen years. Seqmd, the White Paper itself was only in
a very minor degree his own work. I suspect that if seventy scholars
spent seventy years trying to discover the authorship of that White
Paper, we should have seventy, or more, different answers-it was
the most completely typical piece of Civil Service collaboration, a
jigsaw of parts of many versions by many hands. But it showed,
more than anything else, how widely Keynes' ideas had now become
dispersed. Keynes would, I suspect, have been the first to urge that
the publication of a White Paper does not solve a problem-that full
employment will come only if people will make it come.
The vast congeries of conflicting personalities which assembled
at Bretton Woods provided for Keynes the greatest test of his public
life, and in the event the greatest triumph. To argue the intensely
complex issues which pervaded the draft agreement in a small meeting of experts was one thing, to ensure that a reasonably coherent
and workable plan should come out of a large polyglot democratic
debating society-there were some 750 persons collected at Bretton
Woods-in which many were highly expert, but not a few were
moved by political, as much as economic or administrative considerations, was something very different. Moreover, since voting rights
76 . E. A. C. Robinson
with Mr. Morgenthau, Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, and with
Mr. Harry White of the U.S. Treasury, to whose masterly chairmanship Keynes offered eloquent testimony.
The three weeks of intensive work brought their disappointments
and disillusions as well as their successes. International negotiations
are apt to include horse dealing as well as idealism. But in the end
something emerged which was not too wholly dissimilar from the
objectives of the idealists. In the felicitous speech in which he moved
the acceptance of the "final act," Keynes could sincerely say that
he believed that they had accomplished something in the way of
constructive internationalism. And conscious of his share and of the
way that, despite fatigue and weakness, he had dominated the conference, the delegates paid their tribute by rising and applauding
again and again.
The objective which Keynes had set himself in the Tract on
Monetary Reform of a system of exchange rates which combined
the virtues of short-term fixity with those of long-term flexibility
seemed a stage nearer achievement. But on his return to London
he found that he had to defend himself against those who, now
convinced of the virtues of flexibility, believed that the plan represented a return to the gold standard. The main criticism, however,
voiced by The Times, came from those who believed that Bretton
Woods represented an irrevocable first step towards a commercial
policy which might prove to be unworkable in a postwar world.
These critics could be only partly reassured by Keynes' promise that
there was nothing in the Bretton Woods Agreement itself which
was fundamentally incompatible with some of the commercial measures which they advocated.
Keynes had scarcely returned from Bretton Woods when at very
short notice he was asked again to return to the United States-this
time to share with Sir Robert Sinclair the task of leading the British
delegation which was to discuss with the U.S. authorities the terms
and quantities in which Lend-Lease might be available to Britain
if Germany should have been defeated, but war should still be continuing, as it was then thought that it would for a considerable time,
against Japan.
Since the problems included not only the transitional fiI)ancial
arrangements, but also the British requirements and supplies of mili-
78 . E. A. G. Robinson
own against that army the small handful must rely on its own capacities for rapid labor.
Actual negotiations occupy, moreover, a very small fraction of
the time. The main tasks of the leaders lie in the protracted discussions of policy within the delegation itself, where conflicting interests
must often be harmonized, in the preparation of material for the
next round of discussions, and above all in keeping the responsible
Ministers and Departments in London informed of progress and
agreed to the lines of policy to be proposed. Seen from 3,000 miles
away, the difficulties of persuading London appear sometimes of
almost equal magnitude with those of persuading Washington; but
London is at once the source of support and strength, the safeguard,
and, if necessary, the alibi.
The strain upon the leaders of such a delegation comes not only
from the volume of work-Keynes' own capacity for work proved
again to be terrific-but also from the measure of the responsibilities
involved. The few occasions when Keynes showed serious and obvious signs of strain were all when things appeared for the moment
to be going badly. His wonderful resilience he owed, I believe, in
large measure to his capacity for putting all his cares and worries
temporarily aside. All who shared in them will remember with joy
some of his gay little dinner parties. I myself shall always treasure
vivid recollections of an utterly happy afternoon after a particularly
exhausting morning when Lydia persuaded him to take us to Mount
Vernon, and for three or four hours he forgot everything except
the exquisite perfection of that lovely house, and the shock of beauty
of the view from its terrace, while he engaged in lighthearted
and completely preposterous arguments about George Washington
and modern America.
While that capacity to shed temporarily his cares enabled him, on
this occasion, as on others before and later, to carry through to the
end, we all felt before it came the measure of his physical exhaustion.
Yet he had to go on to further negotiations, scarcely less strenuous,
in Canada. And on the homeward voyage he never ceased to work.
He crossed the Atlantic always by ship when he could, for flying,
even for short distances, was a strain upon his heart which sometimes
prostrated him for several days. The crossings in some measure
provided a short holiday, for he would mix lighter reading (Jane
The end of the German war and the general election wrought
no change in Keynes' position and responsibilities. He had served
first Sir Kingsley Wood and later Sir John Anderson; Dr. Dalton
now asked him to continue as his Financial Adviser. When the
Japanese war ended unexpectedly in August 1945 Keynes' ambassadorial services were again urgently needed. So rapid an end of
the Japanese war had not been expected, and the process of transition
of the British economy from war to peace had not been carried beyond the stage to which the mission of September 1944 had carried
it. The abrupt cancellation of Lend-Lease, entirely legitimate and
necessary as it may have been, left Britain in acute difficulties.
Keynes was asked to join his old friends Lord Halifax and Mr. R.
H. Brand as a mission to see what credit arrangements could be made
to meet the immediate emergency.
It is no secret-indeed he proclaimed it in the House of Lords
on his return-that Keynes at the outset of the negotiations was
himself convinced that the moral case for very generous treatment
of Britain by the United States was unassailable, and that it should
take the form of an outright gift. He was convinced (as were all of
us) that in terms of equality of sacrifice Britain had borne more
than her share-that she had been in the war for a longer continuous period, that in terms of physical losses of ships and property,
and particularly in terms of the tremendous change from a creditor
to a debtor position, she had suffered as much or more than any
other of the Allies. Keynes started in high hopes that he could convince the American administration also that an outright gift was
not only an act of generosity but equally an act of practical wisdom
designed to rebuild the world's trade and prosperity. This case was
argued in full, and listened to with patience and sympathy. But it
80 . E. A. G. Robinson
was very soon apparent (to quote Keynes' own words to the House
of Lords) "that a primary emphasis on past services and past sacrifices would not be fruitful." The principle of equality of sacrifice
had never been accepted by any of the Allies (ourselves included):
sacrifice itself was of many kinds, and a comparison of it invidious
and insoluable. America was more interested in the future than the
past. Thus the offer which Keynes and his colleagues could secure
was something quite different in, character from what they would
have liked. What they were offered was a loan of '1,100 millions
at 2 per cent, of which about one-seventh was to represent payment
for all outstanding Lend-Lease obligations, with special arrangements
to enable Britain to begin the interest payments only in 1951 and
to escape them in any year if her financial position required it. But
added to this, and at least equally important in any long-term view
of the settlement of war debts, was the complete cancellation of the
greater part of the Lend-Lease account.
It was largely because he felt that in the latter respect the American gesture had been truly handsome, and had received but niggardly acknowledgment in England, that Keynes, on his return, was
able sincerely to say that, disappointed as he and his colleagues
were at their failure to secure the gift for which they had originally
hoped, this represented "an act of unprecedented liberality." But
the great difference between the original hopes and the final outcome made the course of the negotiations exceedingly tortuous. While
Keynes and his colleagues were quickly convinced that their original
ambitions were unrealistic, both official and unofficial views in London were less quickly revised, and Keynes found himself, once again,
persuaded by the Americans, but unable at all readily to persuade
the British. The critics fastened, not so much on the interest and
amortization terms, though in Britain's prospective difficulties these
added responsibilities were certainly matter for concern, as on the
strings attached. The principal of these was the obligation to fulfil
at an early date the requirement, which would have fallen upon us
under the Bretton Woods agreement only after a transition period,
to make other countries' sterling earnings freely convertible. The
critics felt, perhaps wrongly, that Britain was progressively being
committed to a system of international free trade which could be
made a reality only if American tariffs were reduced, and forced
82 . E. A. G. Robinson
Parliament was far from a formality. In the House of Commons,
even though many backbench members of the Labour Party were
uncomfortable, there could be little doubt that, presented by the
Chancellor of the Exchequer as Government policy, the loan would
be accepted and the Bretton Woods Bill passed. But in the House
of Lords the issue was far less certain.
Keynes landed from the Queen Elizabeth on the day on which
the debate in the Lords opened. He reached the House in time to
hear Lord Pethwick-Lawrence put the Government's case, and Lord
Simon, Lord Woolton, and others criticize it severely, though differing as to whether they would or would not reject it. Keynes himself
intervened only momentarily to confirm what the Chancellor of
the Exchequer had said in the House of Commons, that there could
be no misapprehension in the State Department as to the British
view that reduction or elimination of preferences by ourselves could
only be considered in relation to, and in return for, similar reduction
by other countries, and that there could be no question of unilateral
surrender by us.
Keynes opened the resumed discussion the next day. The speech
to which he had devoted so much labor achieved a success as great
as he could have dared to hope. There was no question that it was
the greatest debating triumph of his life. He was able to give the
full American background to the negotiations which made clear the
impossibility of much that earlier speakers had been demanding. He
made abundantly clear his own disappointments. Above all, he was
able to show that the supposed alternatives were a mirage. It was a
tremendous performance, and was acclaimed as such. The Bill was
passed by ninety votes to eight. But many had abstained. And though
Keynes had clearly persuaded not only the House of Lords but also
the country that in existing circumstances nothing better could be
achieved, there remained the strong feeling of discomfort and of
uncertainty whether, in the absence of reductions of tariffs abroad,
all these plans were going to be workable.
It is not yet easy to see Keynes' work for the Loan Agreement
in its true perspective or to fit it into the unexposed sequence of history. It far transcended both in the magnitude of the issues at stake
and in the difficulty and strain of the actual discussions all the earlier
negotiations in which he had taken part. It is fatally easy for the
84 . E. A. G. Robinson
the arguments of the British representatives for New York. Disagreement arose also as to what should be the power of the permanent staff of the institutions as against the powers of the executive
directors who were representatives of the great powers. Again the
decision went in favor of the political power and against the financial.
Because he had gone in no expectation of the differences of opinion
that emerged, Keynes found it the most exhausting conference that
he had attended.
He arrived home from Savannah very tired, and went to Tilton
to rest. On Sunday April 21, 1946, Easter Day, he had a sharp heart
attack. He died within a couple of hours of the onset.
For some years before 1946 both Keynes himself and his friends
had known the possibility, even the likelihood, that if he continued
to work as he was working the end would come one day just as it
did. Despite this knowledge he carried on. This was his contribution
to the war and to the future of his country.
His death left a gap everywhere. In the Treasury, where, despite
his amorphous position, he carried a massive share of the total responsibilities for the country's financial welfare. In the world of
academic economics, where for so many years he called the tune
to which the rest of us had danced. In his College and University,
where his learning and his leadership alike were irreplaceable. In
the world of the ballet and the arts, where his sustaining energies
had kept so much alive that might so easily have died. Not least, in
his own family. But perhaps some day we may learn to say that it
was right that he, like others whom the gods love, should die young.
At sixty-two he was in the plenitude of his powers. That brilliant
mind was still at its best-rapier sharp, leaping always with intuitive
rapidity far ahead of the rest of us. The memory that will remain
is of that mind at its perfection.
15
In the six years from the outbreak of war to its end Maynard
Keynes had subtly changed. At its outbreak he was still fundamentally the academic and the philosopher, with truth and right as
his objectives. He was still the critic, trying to persuade, and content
if sometimes the process of persuasion involved an element of
overemphasis on the component that was undervalued by others. The
86 . E. A. G. Robinson
cases was often disturbing-the more so as they often felt that it
was not the case but the arguing of it that was at fault. But if the case
was good, reason would quickly prevail. Keynes would often laughingly say that he possessed the shortest memory in the world. And
I believe there was truth in this-he had a wonderful memory for
arguments, but no memory for their authors. If next day you returned to the same problem, you were as likely to find him parading
your arguments of yesterday-if they were good arguments-as his
own. And those of us who knew him learned to retreat when worsted
today and to re-engage tomorrow.
And to these others he added the greatest gift of the Civil Servant,
the power to inspire devotion. The missions which he led were all
happy parties. They involved, as I have said, almost unbelievable
pressure of sustained effort, not only for Keynes himself, but also
for all who were engaged either in responsible or routine work. All
drove themselves, partly because Keynes was driving himself, but
at least as much because he filled them with his own sense of
urgency. He was utterly informal, almost without sense of hierarchy,
approachable by everyone who had a problem on which to brief him,
or a difficulty in his own particular negotiations, extraordinarily quick
to see the point at issue and to fasten on to the problems that were
worrying you, extraordinarily rapid in judgment and decision.
I can with difficulty think of others who were nearly Keynes'
equal in a fastidious forensic ability; of others who approached him
in the power to clothe perfect clarity of thought in a perfect choice
of words; of others, again, who shared his mastery of technical and
administrative necessities; of yet others who had grasped the fundamental economic problems of our age, if not so well, yet not very
markedly less well. But no other man in our age has combined all
these rare qualities so remarkably in one person. It was because he
was all these things and more that Maynard Keynes was utterly
unique.
87
88 . E. A. G. Robinson
I doubt whether Keynes himself knew whence he derived all of
his bricks. He was a rapid and omnivorous rather than a painstaking
and laborious reader. He would sometimes argue that anyone (and I
suspect that meant himself) could extract the essentials from almost
any book in a couple of hours. He remembered vividly the ideas
which he absorbed into his own thinking. But he did not, I think, remember with great certainty whence he had got them. They became
part of his own system of thought and would not, I suspect, have
remained identified with an author. He took over into his own
thinking equally and indiscriminately ideas that he had himself
evolved, ideas that had occurred to him while stimulated by a book
or article he was reading, 1 the ideas of the actual author of the book
or article, ideas put into his head in conversation with his Cambridge
colleagues, his pupils, and those with whom he worked in all the
widespread activities of his life. All these became part of his thinking,
and those of us who lived around him found pleasure and amusement when our own ideas were occasionally retailed to us againretailed, however, with a new vividness that they had acquired in
the process of being adopted.
When he was writing, Keynes did not ordinarily work with a pile
of the writings of his predecessors on a table beside him, for reference
and accurate quotation at every moment. His method was rather to
start with a virgin block of paper and write from his own mind. He
used his authorities where necessary to provide facts, but rarely to
buttress his own analytical thinking. If one turns to the Treatise,
which in many ways was more of a work of economic scholarship
than was the General Theory, Keynes' references are usually either
to give the source of some facts or figures or, more often, to justify
his exposition of some theoretical analysis from which he differs. He
seldom, if ever, tries to identify the first origins of an idea with which
he agrees.
Keynes' interest in his predecessors nearly always, I think, came
after the conception of the first draft of a piece of work, or at earliest
1
90 . E. A. G. Robinson
saving and investment. 4 In the process of writing the Treatise, moreover, Keynes had read more than usually deeply in Wicksell's writings. Ralph Hawtrey was, of course, an old friend and continuous
correspondent. From all these sources Keynes undoubtedly drew
perhaps even more than he, or we at the time, knew.
But this is not to belittle his own contribution. For all of us in
Cambridge, it was Keynes who was both the stimulus and the focus
for these various lines of thought. I think, moreover, that he possessed much more clearly than any of the rest of us a complete and
coherent picture of the system that was emerging from all this process
of re-examination. For I have long felt that Keynes' economic thinking was, in reality, intuitive, impressionistic, and in a sense feminine
rather than precise, ordered, and meticulous. 5 He saw how things
must be, and was sometimes prepared to leave others-and particularly Richard Kahn-to work out more formally how his intuitions
happened to be true.
If one is to see Keynes' own contribution one must, I think, take a
step back and ask what was the revolution that has been called after
him. As so often, I believe the principal innovation consisted not so
much in answering as in asking new questions, or in making us all
ask afresh questions to which we wrongly thought we knew the answer. First and foremost Keynes, aided and abetted by those working
most closely with him, made us ask what are the factors that determine the level of output as a whole, not only in a full-employment
long period but also in a short period. To a younger generation of
economists, brought up on Keynesian and post-Keynesian versions of
the theory of employment, it is difficult to imagine a time when
these questions were not central in all economic analysis. But before
1931, while we were inevitably interested in unemployment and its
causes, our attempts to explain it were guilty, as I think a rereading
of Pigou's Theory of Employment will show, either of applying to
the whole of activity propositions that were properly true only of an
4
See numerous references in R. F. Kahn, "The Relation of Home Investment to Employment," Economic Journal, June 1931, pp. 187191.
92 . E. A. G. Robinson
ably most vulnerable in his handling of the longer-term determinants
of the rate of interest. But in a more practical sense, I believe the
subject to have become almost irrelevant. The monetary authorities
of the world have now become so steeped in the general thinking of
the Keynesian revolution that, where a reduction of the rate of interest is desirable, and mayor may not in the purest logic be automatic in theory, they in fact tend to bring about the necessary adjustment; in this way the responsive actions of the authorities can be
regarded as having become a part of the theory in the same way that
they traditionally did in the assumed operations of the gold standard.
To all intents and purposes we now act as if the system is not selfrighting and needs assistance in certain circumstances.
The greatest and most important element in the "Keynesian revolution" I have deliberately left to the last. Before 1936 the task of a
government in a depression was, at most, ambiguous. It encouraged
its central bank to take measures designed to protect the currency
reserves; a strong central banker might be prepared to assist colleagues in difficulties. It might engage in a limited scheme of public
works. It might (as in the 1930's) encourage international consultation. But by and large, booms and depressions were accepted as
inevitable, and as uncertainly predictable as their climatic analogies.
An economist's job was to help intelligent businessmen to manage
their businesses in such ways that they suffered a minimum of
damage. From 1936 onwards our whole attitude to boom and depression has changed. We are not always agreed about what exactly
should be done, or about the exact timing of action, but we are
agreed, almost unanimously, that governments can and should take
action along certain specific lines to mitigate a depression or damp
down a boom that is getting out of hand, and that by doing this they
can in large measure avert a major recession.
It is this change of attitude as to what can and cannot be done, and
the effects of this change on the dimensions of booms and recessions,
that represent the greatest economic change of our life time, and
carry the greatest implications for economic policy. All of this has
involved and been made possible by new attitudes of central bankers
and of finance ministers, which in my own country began, indeed,
with Keynes' inspiration of Kingsley Wood's 1941 Budget, but have
been progressively developed through the work and experience of
94 . E. A. C. Robinson
an intellectual leadership which no other economist of his countrymen, save possibly Ricardo, could have claimed in the past and certainly no other English economist possesses today. I doubt whether
any more ordinary academic who did not possess this leadership could
have achieved what Keynes did.
When he believed that he had an idea of which the official or
wider world needed to be convinced, he was prepared to take endless
trouble to convince it, by writing, by pressing his views on such committees as the Macmillan Committee or the Economic Advisory
Council. And he could be immensely persuasive. But having said
that, I find it difficult to argue that the General Theory is as well
written, as readable, and as persuasive to the general reader as the
great bulk of Keynes' writings. One rereads the Economic Consequences with as much joy as one read it originally. His more polemical pamphlets have a fire and vitality and a happiness of phrase that
few economists have equaled. Large parts of the General Theory are
sheer labor to read and I suspect that few even of the most ardent
Keynesians refresh themselves regulady at the original spring. Here
I find myself agreeing with some of the comments of Professor Johnson in his essay on "The General Theory after Twenty-five Years."
Indeed I find it strange that Keynes, the great stylist, should be remembered principally by the least well-written of all his books. It is a
paradox that the world seems to like its bibles-if one may think of
Das Kapital as well as of the General Theory-to be so nearly incomprehensible as to require a body of expert theologians to expound
them.
It is, of course, easy to explain how it happened. Keynes never,
I feel sure, regarded the General Theory as immutable law, to be
perpetuated on tablets of stone. His instinct was always to cast his
bread on the waters: to get his present thinking into the hands of
readers before the policies that he was seeking to inHuence were
crystallized. He was a pamphleteer rather than a procrastinating and
perfectionist pedant. I suspect that by the end of the rather long
period of preparation of the General Theory he was more anxious to
get it out than to rewrite it.
But the more fundamental reason why it is difficult to read
is that it is two books in one. It is a positive exposition of a new
set of theories. It is an escape from an old set of theories. When
PART TWO
The Thirties
The Sixties
W. B. REDDAWAY
99
100
W. B. Reddaway
the announcement of the new book was its relation to the Treatise
on Money. Mr. Keynes deals with this question in the preface, and
there is little need for me to add anything. There have been important changes in method and terminology, the latter being bound, I
fear, to create much initial confusion. But the underlying principles
are fundamentally the same, though they have been clarified and, in
the process, considerably developed. Those who have accepted the
main thesis will, as soon as they are accustomed to the new terminology, find a more penetrating and more logical exposition of it; those
who still remain unconvinced will be stimulated to greater endeavors
to refute the heresies, now more dangerous than ever as a result of
more forceful expression.
The most fundamental change is a clear recognition that the
thing to be studied is the forces which determine the total volume of
output and employment, rather than the various price levels. Not a
few people, including the present reviewer and probably Mr. Keynes
himself, must have felt that this really was the quaesitum even in the
Treatise, and that the analysis was for that reason rather artificial. In
effect the process was supposed to work in two stages; an increase in
investment, for example, would lead first to higher prices being
realized for an unchanged output of consumption goods, and the
resulting windfall profits then provide an inducement to entrepreneurs to expand output. Mr. Keynes was assailing the notion
that money was a mere counter which could exert at the most a
transitory influence on "real" things like output and employment;
but the old tradition was so strong that he made it work through the
medium of changes in prices, which would only subsequently lead
to changes in output. To quote from the preface of the new book:
"My so-called fundamental equations were an instantaneous picture
taken on the assumption of a given output. They attempted to show
how, assuming the given output, forces could develop which involved
a profit-disequilibrium, and thus required a change in the level of
output. But the dynamic development, as distinct from the instantaneous picture, was left incomplete and extremely confused."
Of all the ideas contained in the Treatise the most familiar is that
associated with "the difference between saving and investment."
This phrase has become a catchword which has been applied, or
rather misapplied, to all manner of problems without any recognition
101
102
W. B. Reddaway
104
W. B. Reddaway
This is the procedure followed in the past dealing specifically with the
marginal efficiency of capital (cf. footnote on p. 137). But in a preliminary outline he uses the expression "complex of rates of interest
on loans of various maturities and risks" (p. 28) (my italics).
105
Thus the schedule is greatly affected by the level of employment, because this reacts on confidence. Investment should perhaps be represented as a function of income CY) and the rate of interest Cr) rather
than of r alone. This appears to involve circular reasoning, because we
started by saying that income depends on investment. But, as shown
later, this is not a valid objection, the factors mutually determining
one another.
I06
W. B. Reddaway
= f (Y)
(2) 1= g (r)4
(I) S
(3) 1= S
(4) M
= Ll (Y) + L2 (r)
These are set down here to show that we have really got enough relationships. Mr. Keynes, quite rightly in my opinion, deprecates the
spurious air of exactness introduced by too much mathematics. But
4
107
108
W. B. Reddaway
cepts the new doctrine, few will dispute Mr. Keynes's remarks about
the importance of the questions at issue. To take a single example:
"A decreased readiness to spend will be looked on in quite a different
light if, instead of being regarded as a factor which will, ceteris paribus, increase investment, it is seen as a factor which will, ceteris
paribus, diminish employment" (p. 185).
109
(1)
C =f(Y)
(2)
I =h(Y,r)
(3) C+I =Y
(4)
M =L1 (Y)+L s(r)
Throughout this chapter I use this phrase in its literal sense, to mean
a budget which shows no significant deficit or surplus according to
some convention.
LIO
W. B. Reddaway
sible to work with a single figure for "consumption," to cover government expenditure on everything from armaments to zoological museums along with the ordinary purchases of individuals. Taxation
and transfer payments by governments have to be brought into the
picture in order to pass from the national income to private disposable
income, and private consumption and saving need to be related to
this;2 government expenditure on goods and services is then a positive
element of demand in its own right, broadly-but only broadly-corresponding with the negative effect which taxes have on personal
consumption.
The logical dilemma posed above then takes the form "what are we
to assume about the forces which determine government consumption, taxes, and transfer payments? Can we, even broadly, assume
that the government will always aim at a balanced budget, or some
other relationship between revenue and expenditure?"
In the simple model given in my review this is essentially what
was assumed-and I can invoke the authority of a letter from Keynes
for saying that I did not misrepresent his treatment. On such an assumption one can, as a first approximation, regard total consumption
(government and private together) as related to the national income
through a single "propensity to consume"-as shown in my first
equation. Admittedly this means that the propensity, i.e., the shape
of the function, will change if the government's policy about budgetbalancing changes; but if one regards big changes in such policies as
unlikely, one may accept this awkward feature for the sake of the
simplicity gained by having few variables.
I do not wish to get involved here with the further important question
of what determines the amount of company profits which is not distributed, and so does not become part of personal incomes.
I I I
its own sake; tax revenue also deserves a place in the list of mutually
dependent variables which we want to study. The literature on the
balanced budget multiplier shows the need to bring out these elements, even if the government did subject itself to rather narrow
behavioral rules by always aiming at a balanced budget.
In effect, then, we need to replace equation (I) by one which
shows consumption as made up of two parts: private (related to
private disposable income) and governmental. We might conveniently adopt the following notation:
P = private consumption
G = Government consumption
t = fraction of the national income taken in taxes
D = transfer payments made by the Government
and then-taking a very simple case which ignores many awkward
complications-we can replace equation (I) by equation (I a)
(Ia) C=P+G=f[Y (I-t) +D]+G
Now the main reason for writing down the equations in my review
was to see that there were the right number to account for the unknowns which have to be explained. This transformation of equation
(I) has introduced three new unknowns-t, D and G-and this immediately raises the question whether the system is determinate. The
answer must be that it is not, unless we attribute to the government
both certain objectives and certain views about how it wishes to attain them. Nor need this be regarded as in any way paradoxical: the
outcome clearly should depend on governmental policy, both as to
ends and to means. The original model left M, the quantity of money,
as essentially determined (in a modern economy) by the authorities,
thus recognizing the role of monetary policy as an influence on
events-whatever the objective of that policy might be: this discussion does no more than put fiscal policy explicitly in the picture in
the same way.
We must not, of course, exaggerate the extent to which the government can exercise its freedom of choice about macroeconomic
policies. For the near future at least, its expenditure (including transfer payments3 ) is likely to be determined within fairly narrow limits
3
112
W. B. Reddaway
AN ILLUSTRATION
Let me illustrate this rather sweeping statement by showing how
one might rewrite the quotation from Keynes about the effects of increased thrift, given at the end of my review, assuming a closed
system.
The effects of a decreased readiness to spend [on the part of
individuals] depend essentially on how the government and
central bank react to it, and indeed on what policy they were
pursuing before. Two groups of possibilities may usefully be
set down, corresponding with two fundamentally different basic
assumptions, but this is far from exhausting the possibilities.
Basic Assumption A. The authorities have been pursuing, with
fair success, a policy of full employment without inflation, and
continue to do so.
On this assumption the level of the national income will be
unaffected by the increase in private thrift, and to ensure this
result the authorities may adopt any of the following measures
(or some combination):
(I) remit taxes or increase transfer payments, so that personal disposable incomes are increased, and personal consumption is maintained at the old level, despite the smaller proportion of these incomes which is spent. In this case personal
saving will be doubly increased, and government saving reduced (possibly becoming negative); total saving, investment,
the quantity of money and the rate of interest can remain
unchanged;
(2) increase government expenditure on goods and services
by the same amount as personal consumption falls, without
raising taxes. If the government expenditure is of the kind
classified as consumption, the increased private thrift (and resultant fall in private consumption) is simply offset by compensating changes in government thrift and consumption; if the
extra expenditure is classified as investment (e.g., making new
roads), extra private saving has financed extra government investment;
(3) pursue an easy money policy so as to raise private investment to match the increase in private saving;
(4) encourage private investment by other devices, notably
I I4
W. B. Reddaway
I IS
portion of disposable incomes will be saved, but disposable incomes themselves will fall, both because of a fall in the national
income and because of the rise in tax rates needed to preserve
the balanced budget. (Government savings will, ex hypothesi,
remain at zero, since we are assuming a balanced budget).
This answer is clearly a somewhat cumbrous affair, and it remains
so even if the movements in the main variables are summarized in a
table, such as that shown on page 116. A cynic may ask whether economics is much use as a science when the table shows that, for
example, private saving may rise for two reasons, or rise for one
reason, or remain unaffected, or possibly fall-depending on what
assumption one makes. ''You pay your money and you take your
choice" or even "The Emperor has no clothes on" may suggest
themselves as comments.
Nevertheless, none of the assumptions which we have taken as
possibilities are in any way absurd as interpretations of "ceteris
paribus." It would indeed be possible to add further plausible alternatives which would lead to some variables which at present feature
as moving only in one direction (or remaining unchanged) being
shown to move in the opposite one: thus if the Basic Assumption B
were interpreted to mean keeping interest rates constant, the quantity of money would be shown as falling "in accordance with the
reduced needs of trade." There is nothing for economists to be
ashamed of in all this: economics provides a technique of analysis,
and the problems are not specified until the assumptions are statedand different assumptions make different problems and different
answers.
The big contrast comes, of course, between the two basic assumptions, with Keynes assuming that the second one was the "natural"
assumption to make about the actions of the authorities, so that any
other action (such as is assumed in the A series), would have to be
regarded as a separate factor. In effect, he accused the classical economists of assuming that the economic system contained within itself
presented with a great display of self-righteousness. When the Labour
Government seemed to be weakening in its resolution, and was replaced by a National Government pledged to "sound finance", that
Government received an overwhelming majority in the general election.
116
W. B. Reddaway
National Income
Consumption
Personal
Government
Total
Investment
Private
Government
Saving
Private
Government
Interest rates
Quantity of money
Tax rates
A2'"
---
A3
A4
A5
--
-- -- --
+
oor-
oor+
++
+
-
0
0
0
0
0
-oor-
--
?-
?-
'" Where alternative entries appear, the first assumes that all the additional Government expenditure is classified as consumption, the second
that part is classified as investment.
118
W. B. Reddaway
120
W. B. Reddaway
ADDENDUM
NOTES ON INVESTMENT AND TIME
There can be no question that Keynes' analysis was in its essence
a description of short-run static equilibrium, rather than of a process
through time. The equations do not "date" the variables, and the
crucial paragraph on page 102 of my review starts by "visualizing" a
series of levels of employment, and ends by saying that the actual one
must be that which corresponds with the level of investment (because otherwise there would be a disequilibrium). There is no attempt to show how one position develops out of another; if
investment changed to a new rate (and stayed there) we are not
told what the process would be by which employment would move to
the "corresponding" level, or how long it would take.
Many attempts have been made to deal with this obvious illogicality by introducing lags of various kinds-notably a lag between the
earning of income and its impact on consumers' spending, and a lag
between spending by consumers and the "resultant" production of
equivalent goods. These lags provide a link between the position in
the present period and that in one or more subsequent periods, and
so enable one to produce a model of a process through time, provided
that either there are sufficient links to give at least the key figures for
the later periods, or information about the missing items can be fed
in from outside.
In a closed system, two things seem to me to be of outstanding importance for determining the course of events: government actions
121
122
W. B. Reddaway
7 months
14
"
15
16
16
20
38
"
"
"
"
"
123
Other lags
Government policy and investment seem to me, as I said above, to
be the really important factors for tracing the movements of the variables through time. Moreover, each has its own time lags, and sudden
large changes in any determining flow of expenditure are improbable except in quite abnormal circumstances (e.g., war or hyperinflation)'
In view of this I have come to believe that the lags mentioned at
the start of these notes are normally of relatively little quantitative
importance; thus I believe that one's picture of what happens will
normally be as good if one assumes that this week's purchases are
influenced by this week's "accrual" of wages as it would be if one
related the purchases to what was received at the end of last week. 9
Similarly, little is gained by assuming that production of consumer
goods reflects recent sales, rather than a reasonably correct anticipation of what is currently being sold.
Only one lag seems to me long enough to be worth some attention
in the area of "income generation-consumption-production of consumer goods," and that is the lag between the earning of profits by a
company (which we may think of as "centered" at the midpoint of
its financial year) and the receipt of dividends by shareholders: in
the U.K. the average for this is probably nearer to a year than to six
months. The interval before this income influences consumers'
expenditure may well be further increased by a slow reaction on the
part of the shareholder in spending his dividend. Quantitatively,
however, the amount of this income (net of tax) is only about 5 per
cent of disposable personal incomes.
There is an even longer lag before the other ultimate "owner" of
the profits (the Chancellor of the Exchequer) receives his share. But
one may hope that he is sufficiently sophisticated to prevent this lag
from having any significant effect on his actions.
9
Indeed, I would personally say that the use of credit and changes in
cash balances make the week's accrual more plausible as a guide whenever the difference is significant. I have never believed in the picture
of a newly unemployed man spending last week's wages without any
regard to his change in circumstances, or a newly employed one buying
nothing until pay day arrives.
R. F. HARROD
THIS PAPER I do not propose to ask or answer the question, has Mr. Keynes succeeded in establishing the propositions
which he claims to have established? nor again, what kind of evidence is required to establish or to refute those propositions? I shall
confine myself to a narrower question, namely, what are the propositions which Mr. Keynes claims to have established? And in order to
restrict my subject matter still further, I propose to confine myself to
those propositions, which he claims to have established, that are in
conHict with the theory of value in the form in which it has hitherto
been commonly accepted by most economists. In other words, my
question is what modifications in the generally recognized theory of
value would acceptance of the propositions that Mr. Keynes claims
to have established entail?
In order to clarify the issues involved it may be well to divide
commonly accepted theory into the general theory and its specialized
branches. The general theory consists primarily of a number of functional equations expressing individual preference schedules and a
number of identities, such as that supply must be equal to demand,
and the elucidation of such questions as whether there are as many
equations as there are unknowns and whether the solutions are single
or multiple. The result of these enquiries should make it clear
whether the equilibrium of the system as a whole is stable or unstable
or undetermined, whether there are alternative positions of equilibrium, etc. There may be some clues as to the general form of some of
the functional equations, provided by such principles as the Law of
Diminishing Utility, to use old-fashioned terminology, which may
make it possible to predict the direction of changes in the values of
124
125
126
R. F. Harrod
they have laid their foundations well and carefully, be able to look
down with a smile of indifference on the fulminations of Mr.
Keynes. Pavillioned upon their Olympian fastness, they are not likely
to show much irritation.
It is convenient to take Mr. Keynes' theory of interest as the starting point of this exposition. In the commonly accepted short-cut
theory there are two unknowns and two equations. The two unknowns are the volume of saving (= the volume of investment) and
the rate of interest. Of the newfangled view, sponsored by some outof-the-way definitions in Mr. Keynes' Treatise on Money, that the
volume of saving may be unequal to the volume of investment, it is
not necessary to say anything, since it has played no part in the
standard short-curt formulations of interest theory (although it has
figured in recent writings concerned with practical monetary problems). The commonly accepted interest theory from the time of the
early classical writers onward entails that saving is always and
necessarily equal to investment.
The two equations in the traditional theory of interest correspond
to the demand and supply schedules relating to a particular commodity. First there is the demand equation:
y=f(x),
y, the marginal productivity of capital, depending on x, the amount
of capital invested per unit of time. So much capital will be invested
that its marginal productivity is equal to the rate of interest; that is,
y=y',
where y' is the rate of interest. Since both the traditional theory and
Mr. Keynes hold that investment is undertaken up to the point at
which the marginal productivity of capital is equal to the rate of interest, y' may be suppressed, and y made to stand for the rate of
interest which is equal to the marginal productivity of capital.
Then there is the supply equation:
x=p(y);
x, the amount which individuals choose to save, which is equal to the
amount of investment, depends on the rate of interest. Thus there
are two unknowns, the rate of interest and the volume of saving, and
sufficient equations to determine them. It is not necessary for the
present purpose to consider controversies concerning the forms of
127
y=fCx).
The marginal productivity of capital is a function of the amount of
investment undertaken. The marginal productivity of capital appears
in Mr. Keynes' book under the title of marginal efficiency. It does not
appear that there is a difference of principle here. It is true that Mr.
Keynes makes an exhaustive and interesting analysis of this marginal
efficiency and demonstrates that its value depends on entrepreneurial
expectations. The stress which he lays on expectations is sound, and
constitutes a great improvement in the definition of marginal productivity. This improvement, however, might be incorporated in
traditional theory without entailing important modifications in its
other parts.
When we come to the second equation the level of income must be
introduced as an unknown term, giving
x=Cy, i),
where i is the level of income. The amount of saving depends not
128
R. F. Harrod
129
i=1frCx);
the level of income depends on the volume of investment. The justification for this procedure is that whereas the relation of the level of
income to the amount of investment is in the broadest sense knownit may be assumed that people save a larger absolute amount from a
larger income-the relation of the amount which people choose to
save to the rate of interest is a matter of controversy. Moreover in
Mr. Keynes' view the level of income has a more important effect on
the amount which people choose to save than the rate of interest.
However, there is no need to pick a quarrel here. The rate of interest
may be brought back into this part of the picture without affecting
the main argument. The propensity to consume may be regarded as
depending on the rate of interest, although for the sake of brevity and
clarity mention of this need not be insisted on at every point in an
exposition of the doctrine of the multiplier.
What of the third equation? We have
y=xCm),
130
R. F. Harrod
quo against the risk of depreciation of the capital and also because
the higher the present rate the less probability is there of depreciation within the prescribed period.
It is not necessary to give a final pronouncement on the significance of the liquidity preference equation. It appears that even if
some modification is required in this third equation, which determines the rate of interest, a type of analysis similar in its general
structure to that of Mr. Keynes may be maintained.
We now have three equations to determine the value of the three
unknowns, level of income, volume of saving (= volume of investment), and rate of interest (= marginal productivity of capital).
For the working economist these results may be set out in still
briefer shorthand as follows. The amount of investment (= amount
of saving) depends on the marginal productivity of capital and the
rate of interest; the level of income is connected with the amount of
investment by the multiplier, i.e., by the propensity to consume; and
the rate of interest depends on the desire for liquid reserves and the
amount of spare cash in the community available to satisfy that desire. The amount of this spare cash depends on the policy of the
banks in determining the quantity of their 1.0.U.'s that are outstanding and on the level of income (the higher this, the more money
will be taken away into active circulation).
Thus if the schedules expressing the marginal productivity of
capital, the propensity to consume, and the liquidity preference are
known and the total quantity of money in the system is known also,
the amount of investment, the level of income and the rate of interest may readily be determined.
The next topic for consideration is the legitimacy of the assumption that the level of income may be regarded as determined by the
complex of considerations expressed in the savings/interest equations, rather than by the whole system of equations. In general the
level of activity is traditionally conceived as depending on the preference schedules of the various factors expressing their willingness to
do various amounts of work in return for income, and on the
schedules expressing the relation between the amount of work done
and the income accruing from it (Laws of Returns). In considering
the former schedules we have to take into account all the factors of
production. Now in Mr. Keynes' system the supply of capital has
I3I
132
R. F. Harrod
turns). Since the bargains with prime factors are expressed in money,
the returns due to their employment should be expressed in money
also. But the money value of these returns depends on the level of
prices. The general price level might be regarded as determined by
the Quantity Theory of Money; Mr. Keynes does not so regard it for
reasons which will be explained below. On the contrary he regards
the general price level as completely malleable and determined by
the equations in the general neld without reference to the quantity of
money.
The consequence of the conclusions yielded by the interest/savings equations, if these are accepted, is, that the level of income and
activity is determined. Now suppose the entrepreneurs decide to
produce more than the amount so determined. Owing to a dencient
propensity to consume, they will nnd dencient purchasing power,
and either accumulate stocks or sell at a loss. If they do the former
the accumulation of stocks will constitute an additional (involuntary)
investment on the part of the community, which when added to the
intended investment, makes the total investment of the community
such as to be consistent, in accordance with the interest/savings equations, with the higher level of activity which entrepreneurs are
choosing to indulge in. But such a position is unstable. So long as
stocks are accumulating, they will reduce activity and continue to do
so, until it reaches the point indicated by the interest/savings equations. If on the other hand they sell at a loss, they will be dis-saving;
the propensity to consume will be temporarily raised, so that the
higher level of activity which they are choosing to indulge in becomes
consistent with that required by the interest/savings equations. But
again the position is unstable. The marginal propensity to consume
will not be permanently sustained at an abnormally high ngure by
these means. To avoid losses, entrepreneurs will restrict and continue
to do so, until activity and income are reduced to a level which satisnes the interest/savings equations, with the marginal propensity to
consume normal for that level of income. Converse arguments would
apply in the case of entrepreneurs deciding to produce too little.
Now if the level of activity so determined is indeed the equilibrium level of activity, the price level must be appropriate to it. Let us
suppose that the price of each commodity is determined by the
marginal money cost of production, in the crude way that a tiro might
134 . R. F. Harrod
Theory of Money. The essence of the difference between the traditional theory and Mr. Keynes' theory can be put thus: In the traditional theory the supply and demand schedules of all the factors stand
on the same footing; the level of activity is an unknown, but the
price level is determined by the monetary equation. This determination of the price level enables the level of activity to be determined
by the factors' money supply schedules, and by their marginal productivity schedules. In Mr. Keynes' theory the level of activity is
determined by the equations governing the savings/interest complex. In the general field, in which we are now only concerned with
the demand and supply of prime factors, the level of activity is conceived as determined ab extra. It is a known quantity. But the price
level is conceived to be completely malleable. If it were not the system in the general field would be overdetermined. Thus the monetary equation is shorn of its former powers. The level of activity
being a known quantity the price level is determined by the money
cost of production, with suitable modifications for imperfect
competition.
What right has Mr. Keynes to gut the monetary equation in this
way? Has, then, the banking policy no power to influence the situation? Yes, certainly it has. The fact is that the power residing in the
monetary equation has already been used up in Mr. Keynes' system
in the liquidity preference equation and it cannot therefore exert any
direct influence in the general field. To make it do so would be to
use its determining influence twice over. In fact in Mr. Keynes' system all the old pieces reappear, but they appear in different places.
Explanation is necessary. It will be remembered that according to
the liquidity preference equation, the rate of interest is determined
by the desire of people for liquid reserves and the quantity of money
available for that purpose. The quantity of money available for that
purpose is equal to the total quantity of money in existence less that
required for active trade. 1 Now if the quantity required for active
1
136 R. F. Harrod
trade, and the rate of interest depends on the amount of money available for liquid reserves and the liquidity preference schedule.
It may be well to do some exercises. Suppose the banks to increase
the total amount of money available by open market operations. The
increment may eventually be divided between active circulation and
liquid reserves. An increase of money available for liquid reserves
will tend to reduce the rate of interest; and so to increase investment.
This will increase the level of income through the multiplier in accordance with the marginal propensity to consume. If the fall in the
rate of interest increases the marginal propensity to consume, the increase of income will be pro tanto greater, but it is not certain that it
does so. The increase of incomes involves an increase of turnover,
and of prices in accordance with the law of diminishing returns. This
involves an increased use of money in active circulation. Thus the
fall in the rate of interest will not be so great as it would be if all the
new money went into liquid reserves. The money will be divided between the two uses, but there is no reason whatever to suppose that
the increments in each use will be in proportion to the amounts of
money previously employed there, as is assumed in a Quantity
Theory using a compendious index number. The comparative size of
the increments will depend on the current elasticity of the liquidity
preference schedule and the current elasticity of the marginal productivity of capital schedule (which involves expectations).
Suppose a fall in rewards to prime factors. The price level will
drop. Money will be released from active circulation for liquid reserves. This will tend to make the rate of interest fall and to react on
the level of investment and activity accordingly. Thus the stimulus
to activity is very indirect and its effectiveness depends on the same
factors as that provided by an increase in the quantity of money. This
is very different from the view that a reduction of rewards will stimulate activity because costs fall while prices are sustained by the
quantity of money remaining the same.
It appears to me that the achievement of Mr. Keynes has been to
consider certain features of traditional theory which were unsatisfactory, because the problems involved tended to be slurred over, and
to reconstruct that theory in a way which resolves the problems. The
principal features so considered are ( I) the assumption that the level
of income could be taken as fixed in the departmental theory of inter-
138
R. F. Harrod
Retrospect on Keynes
[1963]
KEYNES IS LIKELY TO HAVE a permanent place in the
history of economic thought as being the first person to develop a
fully articulated theory of what we now call macroeconomics. Such
theory as is to be found in classical economics is largely implicit, and
depends on the proposition that capitalists will always strive to keep
their capitals fully employed; the full employment of labor was,
through the wages fund theory, a corollary of this. One could,
alternatively, at later dates, search for an employment theory in the
proposition that there will be a tendency to equate the marginal
disutility of work with the marginal utility of its product. But it was
not then shown how this tendency worked in practice in relation to
the institutional arrangements of actual economies.
Keynes' finding that free enterprise economies did not in all circumstances tend towards an equilibrium position of full employment
is well known. And it appears to have been generally accepted; witness the widespread recognition that deliberate monetary and fiscal
policies are needed, to supplement the automatic workings of a free
enterprise system.
Since the war attention has been increasingly focused upon the
140 . R. F. Harrod
need to develop a dynamic theory. I call attention to the concluding
paragraphs of my address on Keynes to the Econometric Society in
the summer of 1936. "The only criticism of Keynes which I venture
to offer is that his system is still static." I proceeded to give an outline
of how, in my view, a dynamic theory should be developed. It is to
be noted that for the elaboration of any such dynamic theory, a
macroeconomic theory of statics was an indispensable foundation.
The traditional micro theory did not provide the necessary tools.
Thus Keynes may be truly regarded as the father of dynamic
theory. And that, in the long run, will prove to have been his greatest contribution of all.
Mention should also be made of the great impetus that he gave to
the compilation of national economic statistics, both by his encouragement of independent research in this held before the second
World War, and also by his getting this work put in hand in the
British Central Statistical Office during that war. The British still
appear to hold the hrst place in the compilation of national income
statistics; but it has now become common form in all countries that
attempts should be made, even when the basic data are very imperfect, to furnish such statistics. Their provision has proved to be of
the utmost value to economic researchers.
If one is asked for an opinion about how far the specihc doctrines
of Keynes have held their ground, or how far the corpus of economic
doctrine, as generally accepted and taught, is "Keynesian," it is
difficult to answer. It is possible to dwell on only a limited number
of topics here. And it seems expedient to stress certain aspects, the
neglect of which has, in my view, been disappointing.
Keynes has suffered from his own fertility and from his anxiety to
present his latest thoughts to the public as quickly as possible. In
one way that was a virtue; and in the case of the General Theory it
was most fortunate, since almost all the rest of his life was occupied,
hrst by serious illness, and then by his work in the British Treasury
on behalf of the war effort and on postwar planning.
Since his death, students of Keynes have tended to focus their
attention exclusively on the General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, to the neglect of his Treatise on Money, which was
Retrospect on Keynes .
141
142 . R. F. Harrod
amount of saving that they would have done, had their profits been
normal, and not with the saving that they actually did, so that the
total saving (St), as reckoned by Keynes, was greater or less than the
bookkeeping saving (S), which was the saving that actually occurred
in the period in question, and had to be equal to investment. I believe
that this idea of the possibility of investment exceeding saving, thus
leading to inflation, or saving exceeding investment, thus leading to
depression, was a generally intelligible one.
To complete the definition, it is plainly necessary to have a definition of "normal profit," for it is upon this that the Keynesian St depends. His definition of normal profit is "that rate of remuneration of
entrepreneurs, which, if they were open to make new bargains with
all the factors of production at the current prevailing rates of earnings, would leave them under no motive either to increase or to
decrease their scale of operations." (It is not necessary, of course, for
equilibrium that all entrepreneurs should be in this position, but
only that those with excess profits relatively to the norm should
balance those with deficient profits).
The above definition of normal profit is static, but it lends itself
easily to a dynamization. Delete the last fifteen words and substitute: "give them a motive for increasing their scale of operations by
no more nor less than the increase in the requirement for their
product that is to be expected when the economy as a whole is growing at its optimum rate".
By using this definition Keynes intends that short-period global
corporate profit should be regarded as a residual in the working
of the system as a whole. This brings macro theory into complete
harmony with micro theory, in which the profit of the particular
firm is a residual in the short period. If global corporate profit is a
residual, then global corporate saving also becomes a residual. While
we may think of this as merely the logical consequence of the definitions, it is really something much more important than that.
Keynes wanted us to think of corporate saving as in fact a residual,
in relation to the real causes operating in the economic process. And
it was precisely because it brought this important causal relation
under the spotlight that Keynes' special definition was valuable.
(I would note in passing the great difference between Keynes'
definition, by which it is not necessary that St=I, and those other
definitions that also yield the possibility of inequalities of the general
144 . R.
F. Harrod
146 . R. F. Harrod
one who does saving, but is unwilling to part with the liquidity
which thereby accrues to him, can earn no interest. But if there are
marginal savers, who just would not save, or would not save so much,
if no interest could be earned, then for these interest is the reward
for saving. They may have no concern about liquidity, and if they
save, no question arises for them whether they should part with
liquidity or not. Their motive for saving may be solely to get the
interest that they obtain thereby, and for them that is the end of
the matter. It is not inconsistent with Keynes' contention that the
rate of interest is always at such a level as to balance the marginal
inconvenience of parting with liquidity, to hold also that one function of interest is to be a motive for saving.
(2) Keynes puts his spotlight on the relations between bonds and
cash; since lack of liquidity is the sole characteristic differentiating
bonds from cash, the payment of interest on bonds must be the compensation for loss of liquidity. But Keynes does not in the General
Theory enlarge his horizon and discuss the mutual relations between
cash, the yield of bonds and the yield of other assets; had he done so,
he might have made his theory more readily acceptable.
(3) The concept of a "natural" rate of interest, which has a kinship with the concept so named by Wicksell, is prominent in the
Treatise, but disappears from the General Theory. This seems to
be a definite loss. It left Keynes exposed to the (independent) criticisms of D. H. Robertson and J. R. Hicks, which may be summarized
in the words used by the latter that he ''left the rate of interest hanging by its own boot straps."
I believe that the reason why Keynes discarded this expression
was that he wanted to avoid a connotation of the word "natural" as
used by economists from Adam Smith onwards, namely, an equilibrium price that the ordinary workings of the economic system tend
to establish in the long run. He wanted to emphasize his view that
there was no such equilibrium towards which the system normally
gravitated, and he feared to arouse misunderstanding, if he used the
word "natural."
Nonetheless, it should be quite obvious to the discriminating
and careful reader that there is in fact a natural rate of interest implicit in the doctrines of the General Theory. In the Treatise the
natural rate is that which keeps investment equal to saving (in
I48 . R. F. Harrod
is a cause of high interest rates. This theory does not occur in Keynes
and is inconsistent with his theory of interest. I conceive this to be
a great advance on the part of Keynes. But his view does not appear
to have gained wide acceptance. Recently the rate of interest has
been standing at a much higher level in Britain than before the
war, and this may readily be explained by the fact that the supply
of liquidity has not risen since then nearly so much as the demand
for it. When one points this out, and adds perhaps that one thinks
so high a rate of interest is bad for investment and growth, one is
very often met with a flat rejection. "Oh no, the higher rates of
interest prevailing now are simply due to fears of inflation; nothing
that the authorities could do could alter that."
The idea is that if the natural rate of interest is 3 per cent, and
if a man lends 100 for a year, expecting the general price level to
rise by 2 per cent in that time, he will require 5 per cent, the extra
2 per cent being to compensate him for the loss in the real value
of his principal. But if, following Keynes, we hold that the rate of
interest on bonds is a compensation for their inferior liquidity compared with cash, and if we hold strictly to the rule that the causes
of interest on bonds are to be found solely by comparing bonds with
cash, then the argument will not hold. The lender of the 100
would have the alternative of holding cash; but, if he held cash,
that also would lose 2 per cent in real value during the year. In this
respect there is no difference between bonds and cash, so that the
man who holds a bond instead of cash cannot require this extra 2
per cent. By holding cash, one does not hedge against inflation,
any more than one does by holding bonds. In this respect there is
no difference between them, and therefore the question of whether
inflation or deflation is expected does not enter into their relative
valuation; therefore it has no effect upon the rate of interest.
What is affected by the fear of inflation is the relative valuation
of bonds compared with such other assets-equities, real estate etc.
-as do provide a hedge against inflation. The events in recent years
fully confirm this. The drop in the yield of equities relatively to
the yield of bonds has been caused, in part at least, by the expectation of inflation. That is by no means inconsistent with Keynesian
doctrine.
In my opinion, the lingering hold of the old-fashioned doctrine of
150
R. F. Harrod
contention that high interest rates are due to high investment demand. But there is no truth in the view that investment demand is
higher relative to personal saving either in the United States or the
United Kingdom than it was before the war. The facts are exactly
opposite; personal saving has risen relatively to investment. It is at
this point that the distinction between personal saving and corporate
saving becomes so important. If we take total saving, then no argument can arise about the rate of interest in relation to the balance
between saving and investment, since saving is always equal to investment; but, if we concentrate upon personal saving, treating
corporate saving as a residual, then the natural rate of interest should
be lower now in both countries than it was before the war. Actually
rates are higher; but that is solely because insufficient liquidity has
been provided.
.
What the authorities argue is that it would be useless to try to
get interest rates down by providing more liquidity, since the high
rates are due to high investment demand. This attitude is objectionable in two respects, namely (I) because investment demand has
not been not high in relation to personal saving-and it is personal
saving that matters in this context-and (2) because it violates
Keynes' view that interest rates can be brought down by providing
more liquidity whatever investment demand may be.
It is to be noted that personal saving has risen especially strongly
in Britain during the past few years, relatively to investment, and it
is precisely in this period that interest rates have risen most strongly.
But then in this period the reduction in liquidity became especially
intense.
Now it may well be that if Britain and the United States established much higher growth rates, with much larger requirements
for investment to match, and if both provided much more capital
for developing countries, personal savings might prove inadequate
and interest rates above the prewar level might be needed. We just
do not know if this is so or not. But, as things are, we are in a vicious
circle in which the high interest rates are impeding that rate of
growth and investment which alone might make it expedient to
have them. I find the current great neglect of the Keynesian theory
of interest and liquidity depressing.
Retrospect on Keynes r 5 r
There is the problem of internal liquidity and there is the problem
of international liquidity. If there is a shortage of the media of international reserve and settlement, this will tend to lever up those
interest rates to which international capital movements are sensitive,
by mutual competition between countries. This international competition in respect of high interest rates might be a valid reason
for one particular country to hold its own rates up, regardless of
whether such high rates correspond to the "natural rate" as required
to maintain employment and growth in the internal economy. Keynes
reverts again and again to this theme in the Treatise. I have no doubt
that he would hold that, if nothing can be done about the shortage
of international liquidity, it would be better to impose controls over
the international movement of capital, rather than acquiesce in
having domestic interest rates higher than required locally for full
employment and growth. But this view does not appear to be widely
accepted among monetary authorities, and in this respect again I fear
that Keynesian doctrine has not bitten deep.
But cannot something be done about international liquidity shortage? In this respect we need have no doubt what Keynes' views
would be. He would politely, and sardonically, recommend the adoption of his "Clearing Union," as put forward in the Anglo-American
discussions prior to Bretton Woods. And it may be noted that his
proposals on these lines date back much earlier, e.g., to the time of
the World Economic Conference in London (1933) when he recommended the issue of international gold notes. He would doubtless
add that even his Clearing Union scheme as conceived in 1941-2might not be on a sufficiently generous scale to meet modern requirements. He was passionately in favor of an adequate supply of
liquidity, especially if the aim was to have fully multilateral world
trade with the minimum of restrictions. He would certainly not
suppose that the problem could be solved by the minor expedients
recently proposed by Mr. Jacobson and Mr. Roosa.
May I finally put a delicate point. I find myself in a small
minority of my professional colleagues in advocating faute de mieux
--and the mieux is certainly not likely to come to pass-a rise in
the dollar price of gold, and simultaneously increases in the prices
of gold expressed in other currencies also. This proposition is especially repugnant to avant garde economists, I can never understand
152
R. F. Harrod
D. G. CHAMPERNOWNE
153
154 D. G. Champernowne
the entrepreneurs and the employees. In this case, we could apply the
whole of the classical analysis to the study of trends of real wages,
unemployment percentage, prices, investment, the rate of interest, etc.
H this view were only partly correct, and it were true only that
wage bargains had some influence in determining the trend level of
real wages and the trend percentage of unemployment, yet a study
based on the classical assumptions might throw some light on the
questions of what will be the trends of real wages, unemployment
percentage, prices, etc. For an application of the classical apparatus
is simpler than repeated application of Keynesian theory to successive
short intervals of time when account has to be taken of the working
out of the demand by labor for a change of real wages, into an
equation between industry's supply and labor's demand for real
wages.
Accordingly, we may proceed to a rationalization of the classical
apparatus for determining the trends of real wages, unemployment
percentage, prices, etc., in view of the criticisms advanced in The
Theory of Unemployment.
2
It was pointed out by Professor Pigou in The Theory of Unemployment that, sometimes, labor is concerned not only with the real
wage which it will receive, but also with the money wage. For instance, although a man would be unwilling to accept a wage rate
of 35S. a week, yet even if the cost of living had risen by 20 per
cent, so that a wage rate of 42S. would represent the same real wage
rate as before, he would be prepared now to accept a money wage
rate of 40S. a week, just because this represents an advance of 5S. a
week on the original offer.
Mr. Keynes argues that this is the general case. He suggests that
labor is always more awake to changes in money wage rates than to
changes in the cost of living, so that labor's policy with regard to the
level of real wages can always be neutralized by changes in the cost
of living. This suggestion constitutes his first wave of attack on the
classical system of analysis.
This argument is entirely convincing when it is confined to immediate effects, and our only escape from the conclusions to which
156 . D. C. Champernowne
but the wage-earner slowly realizes that owing to the cost of living
having risen 20 per cent during 1938-9 his wage falls short by 20
per cent of the real wage which he had been accustomed to demand,
he is likely to demand a 20 per cent increase in money wage rate.
If this analysis is correct, it follows that if R is the real wage that
labor will eventually try to get when the level of employment is N,
then a state of affairs where employment is N and real wages are less
than R cannot long exist without a rise in money wages taking place.
A similar argument would show that a state of affairs where employment was N and real wages were greater than R would not be
likely long to exist without causing a fall in money wages.
If we could then assume that a rise or fall in money wages must
lead to a rise or fall in real wages, we could assume that real wages
were determined by the supply and demand of labor, through the
bargains between entrepreneurs and employees.
4
158
D. G. Champernowne
5
We must now return to the consideration whether it is still possible to believe that in any sense a rise in money wages is likely to
lead to a rise in real wages. For the second wave of Keynes' attack
consists of a convincing demonstration that there is no reason to
expect that a rise in money-wage-rates is more likely to lead to a rise
than to a fall in real wage rates, unless the monetary authority
takes the necessary steps (e.g., raises the rate of interest) to increase
unemployment. He shows convincingly also that a lowering of
money-wage-rates is no more likely to lower than to raise the real
wage rate, unless the monetary authority takes the necessary steps
(e.g., lowers the rate of interest) to decrease unemployment.
There is no obvious Haw in this argument, and it follows that the
demand of labor for a certain real wage can only make itself effective insofar as it influences the attitude of the monetary authority
and its manipulation of the rate of interest.
Consider a position in which there is considerable monetary employment. After a time, money wages must start to rise, and unless
real wages also rise, in which case monetary employment will be
reduced, the cost of living will rise in as great proportion. This must
lead, after a further interval, to another rise in money wages: this
will be accompanied by another rise in prices and followed by yet
another rise in money wages. Under such conditions the bargaining
power of the laborer will become stronger and stronger as he becomes
more and more confident of his ability to raise his money-wage-rate,
and the speed with which he will revise his demands in the face
of increases in the cost of living will become greater the more accustomed he becomes to the danger of his real wage being reduced
by the rise in the cost of living.
We see that a period of monetary employment will be accompanied
not merely by rising money wages and prices, but moreover by money
wages and prices rising at a rapidly increasing rate.
It is difficult to believe that such a process would continue for long
without evoking a very violent protest from those classes of the
community who stood to lose from a rapidly rising price level; considerable difficulty would be experienced in adjusting the rates of
exchange in order to compensate the effects of the increased labor
160
D. G. Champernowne
6
161
prices, the rate of investment, the rate of interest, etc., and make
use of the ordinary classical analysis but slightly modified to discover
the trend movements of these also.
7
In order to render this analysis simple we must make the usual
assumptions.
We shall consider a closed system inwhich there is only one rate
of interest. We shall treat money and labor and capital and product
as though each of these were homogeneous.
Our method of finding the trend values of unemployment percentage, real wages, money wages, prices, the quantity of money, the
rate of investment and the rate of interest will be similar to the classical analysis of the stationary state. It will not be exactly similar, because the equilibrium which we wish to examine is a dynamic
equilibrium in which investment is supposed to be taking place.
We may define dynamic equilibrium to be a state in which the
demand for and supply of labor, the demand for and supply of saving,
and the demand for and supply of money are all balanced. In order
to make this definition precise we must define the six demand and
supply functions more carefully.
By the supply of labor in any given situation we may mean "the
amount of labor which would have been forthcoming in that situation, if the real wage rate, the price level, and any other relevant
conditions had been fairly constant about their present values for
(say) one year."
We may construct analogous definitions of the demand for labor,
the supply and demand of savings and the supply and demand for
money. In each case we suppose the relevant influences to have been
fairly steady for some years.
In particular, we may define the supply of savings to be the amount
of saving which would have been forthcoming if the level of (real)
incomes, the level of real wages, and the rate of interest had all been
fairly steady for some years at their present levels, and the demand
for saving as being the amount of investment that would have taken
place if the rate of interest, the level of employment, and the price
level and the level of real wages had all been at their present levels
for some years.
162
D. G. Champernowne
Then, with these definitions, having described a position of dynamic equilibrium as one in which the supply of labor equals the
demand for labor, the supply of saving equals the demand for saving.
and the supply of money equals the demand for money, we may
proceed to the analysis of the equilibrium position corresponding to
any given situation.
Following the classical tradition and considering only basic unemployment (i.e., assuming the supply and demand for labor to be
brought into equilibrium by movements of the real wage rate), we
find that for dynamic equilibrium, the volume of employment and
the real wage rate are determined by the supply and demand for
labor.
In other words, in any given situation, if at real wage R, the supply of labor Cdefined above) would be N.CR), and the demand for
labor would be N aCR), then the appropriate values of the real wage
R and of the amount of employment N are found from the equation
N=NaCR) = NsCR)
Having found the level of employment and the real wage, we may
deduce from these and from our knowledge of the general situation
the corresponding level of real aggregate income; from this we can
estimate the supply of saving S.Cr) Cdefined above), and the demand for saving SaCr), corresponding to any rate of interest r; we
can then find the position of dynamic equilibrium for Sand r, from
the equation;
S=SaCr)=SsCr)
Since we know now the level of employment, the real wage and
aggregate income and the rate of interest we are in a position to estimate, on the basis of our further knowledge of the general features
of the situation, the real value, measured in wage units, of the
amount of money which the public will require.
Let this real value be H, and let the amount of money supplied
by the monetary authority be M, then we can derive the equilibrium
money-wage-rate, w, from the formula
M=wH5
The equation M=wH is the same in principle as the quantity equation M=PH, since real wages are "given" and w is simply a convenient index of prices.
><"'
Supply and Demand
L-_ _ _ _ _ _ N
~Sd
L-_ _ _ _ _
b
for Money
Ms
~s
"'------~M
164 . D. C. Champernowne
(iii) Given the volume of employment, the real wage, aggregate
income, and the rate of interest we can estimate the real value H
of the amount of money demanded; if the money wage is w the
amount of money demanded is wH, so that the demand curve for
money at different wage levels is a straight line passing through the
origin. If we know the amount of money M supplied by the moneM
tary authority, then we can read off the money wage - from the
H
point of intersection of the demand curve and the supply curve.
Thus we read off in turn, the real wage rate and the amount of
employment from the demand curve and supply curve for labor;
having determined these we then find the amount of saving and
the rate of interest from the point of intersection of the demand curve
and the supply curve for saving; having determined these, we then
find the money-wage-rate from the point of intersection of the demand curve and the supply curve for money.
This procedure is only justified if the approximation involved in
assuming that, on the balance over a period of many years, the
effects of monetary employment will cancel the effects of monetary
unemployment, is close; only in this case may we consider the effects
of basic unemployment alone, and act on the assumption that the
amount of unemployment is not affected by the cost of living, but
only by the demand and supply for labor at various real wage rates.
9
The conclusion to which our discussion has led is that if it were
true that in the end real forces such as labor's demand for a certain real wage work themselves out, in spite of temporary disturbances due to monetary phenomena, such as unemployment or extra
employment due to changes in the cost of living, then the classical
analysis would be applicable to the examination of trends of real
wages, etc. It is not, however, suggested that even under these circumstances Mr. Keynes' analysis would be invalidated: it is suggested that it would then predict the same result.
As a sequel to this discussion it may not be inappropriate to consider a formal comparison of the logical structures underlying some
parts of the General Theory of Employment and the classical analy-
166 D. C. Champemowne
on the supply of labor (ceteris paribus). For many purposes it is more
convenient to use a system of analysis which concentrates attention
on the important effects and ignores the unimportant ones than a
system which indiscriminately considers all of them.
Accordingly, any economist is at liberty to choose a special case of
the general system represented by the six equations (I), and to cross
out some of the symbols within the brackets, and so concentrate attention on the most important relationships between the variables,
e.g., by crossing out the symbol r within the brackets of N. (RSrwM),
we should clear our general system of analysis of any need to consider the reaction of changes in the rate of interest (ceteris paribus)
on the supply of labor.
Both the modified form of the classical system which we described
in sections 6, 7, and 8, and the system of analysis described in
the general theory of employment may be thought of as particular
cases of systems obtained from the set of six equations (I) by erasing
some of the variables within the brackets in such a way as to eliminate consideration from certain unimportant causal relationships, and
to concentrate it on the causes which are economically the most significant.
10
168 . D. G. Champernowne
they kept the quantity of money constant. On the classical analysis
which we have been considering, it would be impossible for the
banks to keep the rate of interest constant, because the rate of interest depends on the supply and demand for saving.
The third point to be noticed is that the classical analysis can only
take account of the forces Q and Q' considered in the Keynesian
scheme by superimposing their effects on an equilibrium position
already found.
Whereas the classical system of analysis was to deduce the levels
of N, R, S, r, M, and w by considering in turn the demand and
supply of labor, saving, and money, the Keynesian system is just the
opposite, namely, to consider in turn the demand curves and supply
curves for money, saving, and labor.
As explained on page 163, the classical scheme is to consider in
turn the three diagrams a, b, c:
>(:".
'?~
L - - - - - -__ N
L-------..s
(a)
Ms
" - - - - - - -__ M
(e) N,R,S and r given
~.
Md
(d)
~'~'.
Offer
Ss
Ns
Labor's
Demand
170
D. G. Champernowne
creased the marginal productivity of labor and the real wage offered
by employers, so the demand curve for labor will have moved to the
right; on the other hand, the fall in employment will have made
labor more prepared to accept a cut in money wages, so that the
supply curve will have been lowered. There will be an increase in
the real wage and perhaps a slight fall in the money wage, and,
hence, a definite fall in the price level.
Hence the direct effects of the increase in thriftiness will be a
decrease in savings and employment and a rise in real wages and a
fall in the price level, with no change in the quantity of money or the
rate of interest.
Certain indirect effects remain to be considered. The supply curve
of money will not be affected: but there will be two indirect effects
on the demand for money. On the one hand, the fall in prices and
employment will decrease the demand for money for business, but,
on the other hand, the psychological effects of depression will be to
increase the demand for money for hoarding. Let us suppose that
the first effect predominates so that the demand curve for money in
diagram d is moved just a little to the left: we see that the rate of
interest will be slightly lowered.
There will be two indirect effects on the demand for saving: the
fall in the price level may lead people to expect a further fall, this
will lower the demand for saving by making investment less profitable; on the other hand, the slight fall in the rate of interest will increase the demand for saving. Let us suppose that the second of
these effects predominates: then the demand curve for saving may
move slightly to the right, so that the fall in saving and in employment may be slightly offset. As a result of this the fall in the price
level and the rise in real wages will also be slightly offset.
We find then that the result of the increased thriftiness will be a
small decrease in the rate of interest, a fall in the rate of saving and
in employment and in prices, and a rise of real wages.
These results may be contrasted with the results predicted by the
classical analysis, namely, a fall in the rate of interest and in prices,
but a rise in the rate of saving and no change in the amount of employment or the rate of real wages.
Let us remind ourselves of the difference in the two techniques.
171
13
172
D. G. Champernowne
of saving and tum it into an increase in saving. The decline in employment will be greatly reduced. We proceed to diagram g, and find
W
X"'"
Offer
labor's
Demand
Nd
Ns
g
that since the decline in employment has been so much reduced, the
rise in real wages will be very small and the fall in money wages and
in prices will not be very large. Hence, in this case the Keynesian analysis gives the same result as the classical analysis: an increase in the
rate of saving, a fall in the rate of interest, and a slight fall in the
money-wage-Ievel; but the Keynesian analysis predicts also a slight
fall in employment and increase in real wages. The classical analysis
would also have predicted these effects if it had been postulated that
the effect of the fall in prices would be to raise a little the real supply
curve for labor in diagram a.
14
Early Sonnet to
J. M. K.
174
I76 D. C. Champernowne
the schedule of the marginal prime costs of wage goods in terms of
wage units.
2. Propensity to consume. Unemployment is due, not to insistence on excessive real wage rates, but to an inadequate propensity to
consume, and/or to insufficient investment.
3. Schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital. Insufficient investment is due, not to lack of thrift, but to an inadequate schedule
of the marginal efficiency of capital and/or to excessive rates of interest.
4. Schedule of liquidity preference for money. Excessive rates of
interest are due to the high liquidity preference which people have
for holding money.
5. Effects of money wage reductions during a slump. Even if
money wages were flexible, this would not cure unemployment but
would cause violent instability.
6. The properties peculiar to money. The causes of unemployment have been traced to the tendency of the money rate of interest
to be too high. It is certain peculiar properties of money which distinguish it from all other assets and result in the high money rate of
interest being the main obstacle to the abolition of unemployment.
eWe shall insert a further section just before the last section on
the properties peculiar to money: in this we will examine in particular Keynes' treatment of the effects of the present on the expectations
about the future, as distinct from his treatment of the effects of these
expectations. )
I.
Ibid., p. 69.
Ibid., p. 70
I78 . D. G. Champernowne
on the prospective markets for the firm's goods. These effects might
be favorable through popularizing the various goods provided by the
firm, or unfavorable through spoiling the market by necessitating a
reduction in price. Marginal user cost might also reSect the unfavorable effects on any increase in prices, associated with a reduction
of output, due to encouraging new firms to break into the market.
The effect would be to lower the marginal prime cost of the last unit
of output, and so to discourage any reduction of output.4
Keynes draws two sets of practical conclusions from his consideration of marginal user cost. He argues that towards the end of a
slump, even apart from the direct effects of the beginnings of improvement in employment and money wages, prices are likely to be
increased, because the expectation that some equipment will have to
be renewed much sooner will sharply raise marginal user costS.5 He
argues similarly that organized schemes for scrapping redundant
plant may succeed in raising prices, even if they only succeed in
scrapping half the redundant plant: for they bring the expected date
of the absorption of redundancy nearer, and thus raise marginal user
cost and hence also prices.6
2.
where 0(N) is the national income corresponding to the employment level N, where Ds is the level of investment and where YeN)
is the consumption function.
This is, however, a very crude indication of the theory since it
suggests that the various terms in the equation are actual or "ex post"
magnitudes. Keynes made it quite clear in Book II of the General
Theory that all three terms relate to what is expected and not to
actual levels.
Thus the propensity to consume is what the community is expected to spend on consumption when employment is N; Ds is what
it is expected to spend on investment: finally 0(N) is the total income whose expectation makes it worth while for employers to employ a total of N men.
This introduction of expectations raises two related questions.
Whose expectations are involved? Need the two sides of the equation
agree, since they may correspond to different expectations by different people?
In fact the expectations are formed by the same set of people on
the two sides of the equation, namely, the various employers of men.
The equation is built up from a set of separate equations each one
relating to a separate firm making consumption goods or investment
goods. In each equation the expectations of the two sides are formed
by the same individual-the employer in the firm concerned. There
can thus be no inconsistency arising from a conflict of expectations
between those forming them on the two sides of the equation.
However, this does not mean that the equation will at every
moment of time be satisfied in the same tautological way as must be
the equation of ex post savings and ex post investment. The fact is
that the symbol N cannot refer to the same magnitude on both sides
of the equation for 0(N): because N involved in YeN), the propensity to consume, is actual ex post employment according to the
published,figures, whereas the N involved in 0(N), the supply function, is determined by the equation, and corresponds to expected
income: in short, the N in the YeN) is yesterday's employment as
known publicly today, and the N in 0(N) is today's employment
resulting from the expectations based on this knowledge.
The day "stands for the shortest interval after which the firm is
free to revise its decision as to how much employment to offer." The
180
D. G. Champernowne
Ibid., p. 47.
My italics.
181
182
D. G. Champernowne
3. The Marginal Efficiency of Capital.
11
12
184 . D. G. Champernowne
vestment into the most profitable channels in terms of future yield,
cannot be claimed as one of the outstanding triumphs of laissez-faire
capitalism, which is not surprising, if I am right in thinking that
the best brains of Wall Street have been in fact directed towards a
different object."B A few pages later he prophesies that we should
"see the state, which is in a position to calculate the marginal efficiency of capital goods on long views and on the basis of the general
social advantage, taking an ever greater responsibility for directly
organizing investment."15
Modern critics would probably complain that Keynes conceded
too much to orthodox opinion when he allowed that movements in
the rate of interest can exert an important direct influence on the
aggregate rate of investment. Employers are nowadays quoted as saying that in the uncertain situation that faces them, changes in the
cost of investment due to shifts in interest rates are altogether too
insignificant to be taken into account in deciding whether or not
to undertake a particular capital project.
We have already seen that Keynes considered that the influence of
changes in the climate of opinion, by affecting the marginal efficiency
schedule, were in fact likely to have much more influence than any
movement in the rate of interest. Nevertheless he did suppose that
movements in the rate of interest could exert an appreciable effect,
and it is worth considering how he could have defended this view
against criticisms.
He could have pointed out that the rate of interest at which an
employer has to equate the marginal efficiency of his capital investment is in fact the marginal rate at which his institution individually can raise further finance. In times of brisk trade and
golden expectations, an institution will borrow up to a point where
this level is already well above the general market rate of interest. A
sudden hardening of credit, although it has only a small effect on the
general market rate of interest, can evidently drive the effective
marginal rate of interest at which a particular institution can borrow
enough to be able to continue its current level of investment, so very
far, as to encourage the employer at least to postpone some of his
schemes.
14
15
Ibid., p. 159.
Ibid., p. 164.
17
Ibid., p. 13 6.
Since the short-term marginal efficiency of capital may be even more
sensitive to Ructuations in the climate of opinion than the long-term
marginal efficiency, this point may have some importance in explaining
Ructuations in activity.
186 . D. C. Champernowne
in 1930 had written of money "the convenience of surely being able,
without any previous preparation, to dispose of it for any exchange,
in other words its liquidity, is itself a sufficient return upon the
capital which a man seems to keep idle in money form. This
liquidity of our cash balances takes the place of any rate of interest
in the ordinary sense of the word. A man who keeps an average cash
balance of $ 1 00 rather than put his money into a savings bank to
yield him $5' a year, does so because of its liquidity. Its readiness for
use at a moment's notice is, to him, worth at least $5' a year."18
Keynes does not seem to travel far from this when he writes: "A
rate of interest at any time, being the reward for parting with
liquidity, is a measure of the unwillingness of those who possess
money to part with their liquid control over it. The rate of interest
... is the price which equilibrates the desire to hold wealth in the
form of cash with the available quantity of cash."19
But Professor Irving Fisher expressly denied the suggestion that
changes in the quantity of money could have any lasting effect on the
rate of interest, whereas Keynes seized on the conclusion that by
manipulating the quantity of money the authorities could, within
certain limits, control the rate of interest. It is not our concern here to
examine why Professor Fisher thought that any such control must be
transitory, but to examine the subtle considerations concerning expectations about the future which Keynes brings in when analyzing
the motives underlying a man's liquidity preference for holding cash.
Keynes classifies a man's motives for holding cash into the transactions motive, the speculative motive and the precautionary motive.
Expectations might exert some influence on the transactions motive
if he expected a large change in the level of activity of his business,
but the really important effects of changes in expectations and the
climate of opinion will of course be upon his speculative and precautionary motives for holding cash.
A man will have speculative motives for holding cash when he
expects falls in the prices of the alternative forms in which he might
store his wealth: in practice one of the most important classes of
such alternative assets are fixed interest government securities. Similarly, a man will have precautionary motives for holding cash when,
18
19
188 . D. G. Champernowne
expectation and talks instead of such psychological states as bullishness, bearishness, and uncertainty.
All these degrees of sophistication are exemplified in the following
passage, whose understanding incidentally provides an excellent
test of the capacity of university students of economics. "Nevertheless, circumstances can develop in which even a large increase in the
quantity of money may exert a comparatively small influence on the
rate of interest. For a large increase in the quantity of money may
cause so much uncertainty about the future that liquidity-preferences
due to the security-motive may be strengthened; whilst opinion about
the future of the rate of interest may be so unanimous that a small
change in present rates may cause a mass movement into cash. It is
interesting that the stability of the system and its sensitiveness to
changes in the quantity of money should be so dependent on the
existence of a variety of opinion about what is uncertain. Best of all
that we should know the future. But if not, then, if we are to control the activity of the economic system by changing the quantity of
money, it is important that opinions should differ."20
These ideas follow naturally from the considerations which we
have just described. Best of all would be if we all knew the future,
for then there would never be a precautionary motive for holding
cash, and only if the rate of interest was exceptionally low would
there be any speculative motive. Therefore the rate of interest could
easily be kept low enough to ensure full employment and we should
all know that it would remain so.
Now suppose that there is a variety of opinions about the future,
although each individual is certain about his own private opinion: in
this case, the sensitivity of the rate of interest to changes in the
quantity of money will reflect the variety between individuals in
what they expect is going to be the level of the rate of interest in the
near future. If this variety of opinion is large then only a moderate
shift in the speculative demand for money Cat the ruling rate of
interest) is capable of causing quite a large change in the rate of
interest. Under these circumstances, the rate of interest will be responsive to monetary management and this is the explanation of the
paradox that it is desirable that opinions should differ. Moreover, if
20
Ibid., p. 17 2
190
D. C. Champernowne
cut with the quantity of money held constant would be the same as
those of an increase in the quantity of money with money wage rates
held constant. The difference, he pointed out, arose from the markedly divergent expectations which would be provoked by the two
developments. In the former situation of falling money wage rates,
people will expect further falls in money wages and prices, but in the
latter situation of an expanding money supply they would be most
unlikely to expect falls in money wages or prices. After wage cuts, the
uncertainty about future monetary expenditure on wage goods, associated with the risk of further wage cuts, both lowers the present
effective demand for these goods and lowers the schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital.
Quite apart from these arguments, it is possible to use Keynes'
method of analysis of expectations to show that under certain admittedly extreme assumptions, the demand for money at a given level
of activity will be almost completely independent of the level of
money wages, although, as we have seen, it will be sensitive to any
expectations of a change in their level.
The gist of this argument is that in slump conditions most capitalists will want to hold a considerable proportion of their assets as
precautionary balances, and the size of these precautionary balances
will be related to the value of their holdings of securities. The value
of fixed interest securities will not be directly affected by the fall in
money wages: that of equities will be lower but only because they
become less attractive to hold. In so far as money held for transaction purposes may be counted as part also of the precautionary
balances, any reduction in the transaction demand due to wage reductions will leave unaffected the total demand for money to be
used for transactions and precautionary motives. On these grounds it
appears that any reduction, due to wage cuts, in the demand for
money will be extremely feeble.
When differences of opinion between bulls and bears are brought
into the picture, the argument is weakened, since the only demand
of the dogmatic bulls for money will be for transaction purposes and
thus their bullishness will be allowed to have greater influence on
security prices when they can reduce their bank balances a little on
account of cuts in money wages and associated price cuts.
The argument on which Keynes himself relied most was that
191
Ibid., p. 264.
"Empirical research has confirmed that wage adjustment is slow in
depressions and has also shown the 'real balance effect' to be small." H.
G. Johnson, "The General Theory after 25 years". A. E. R. Supp.
J96J, p. J3
192
D. C. Champernowne
in the sense that small changes in the propensity to consume and the
inducement to invest do not produce violent effects on prices."23
To substantiate this criticism of Pigou, it would be necessary to
demonstrate that money wage rates had in fact shown greater stability than real wage rates in most industrial economies. This would be
difficult since although neither real nor money wage rate statistics
normally show substantial falls, money wage rates do, of course, show
far greater rises than do real wage rates, thereby reflecting the
tendency for money wages and prices to rise together in many
periods.
The substantiation of Keynes' criticism of Pigou would also require a far more careful demonstration that from the assumption that
money wage rates are less stable than real wage rates in an upward
(although not necessarily in a downward) direction, it can really be
proved that initially small changes will produce violent effects on
money wages, prices, or employment. Such a logical demonstration
would have to consider more closely than did Keynes in the General
Theory the reactions of the monetary authorities and the effects of
shifts in the distribution of income between high-savers and lowsavers which would follow from the sequence of changes. It is hard to
see how one could demonstrate more than that a gentle rise of prices
and money wage rates might persist for several years if money wage
rates were flexible in an upward direction while real wages were
somewhat sticky in both the upward and downward directions.
We shall return to a further examination of Keynes' view about
the stickiness of money wages in connection with his discussion on
the peculiar properties of money.
194 . D. C. Champernowne
facts pointing unambiguously to an upward or downward revision;
(2) that where, as is usual, the evidence about the future is scanty,
the most recent experience is the best guide as to what future experience will be.
He concludes that short-period fluctuations in current profitability
are likely to cause unwarrantably violent swings in the marginal
efficiency of capital.
Having emphasized the importance which mere convention must
play in the formation of economic expectation, Keynes characteristically toys with the next stage of sophistication by fancying that at
times the forecasts themselves may well be influenced by speculation
about possible changes in those very conventions which are commonly used in the formation of economic expectations.
6. The Properties Peculiar to Money.
Chapter 17, entitled "The Essential Properties of Interest and
Money," has greater theoretical depth and is more perplexing than
any other in the book. In this paper only the treatment of expectations in this chapter will be analyzed.
The central question of the chapter is: "Why should the volume
of output and employment be more intimately bound up with the
money-rate of interest than with the wheat-rate of interest or the
house-rate of interest?"24
Keynes' answer is given in the following stages, not, however,
necessarily in the exact order in which they will be set down here.
First, he explains what is meant by the wheat-rate of interest, the
house-rate of interest, and so on, and what are the rules governing
the relation between these own-rates of interest of the various assets.
Second, he picks out three characteristics of money-zero (negligible) elasticities of production and substitution, and low carrying costs
-as reasons why it is the rate of interest of money that rules the
roost; he briefly considers other reasons why measures to reduce the
money rate of interest may fail. Third, he discusses why wages are
likely to be, and to be expected to be, more stable in terms of money
rather than of other commodities, and argues that this strengthens the
reason why the money rate of interest shbuld cause all the trouble.
24
Ibid., p. 225.
In connection
with the very low elasticity of supply of money, Keynes explains that
in the case of an ordinary commodity, if its marginal efficiency schedule is suddenly raised for some reason, it does not follow that its demand price must rise in full proportion since "the elastiCity of its supply would also tend to prevent a high premium on spot over forward
STITUTION AND THE LOW CARRYING COSTS OF MONEY.
196 . D. G. Champernowne
delivery."25 In other words, the spot price by rising only moderately
would become sufficiently far above the expected future price to
raise the rate of interest of the commodity in line with its rate of
interest (m.e.). But in the case of money, if its purchasing power
increases this will not cause an expectation of the mining of money
by private enterprise on a scale which will quickly bring down the
purchasing power of money to its former level again.
Suppose, on the contrary, that the only form of money were silver
coins; that the authorities bought up at a fixed money price all the
silver produced, and minted it and put it straight into circulation.
Then, provided the production of silver was highly price-elastic, even
a slight fall in money wages could quickly restore a tendency towards
full employment. The way this could be brought about is that a fall
in money wages would make profitable a considerable increase in
the scale of silver mining and this would lead to more money being
minted and to the expectation of even more being minted in the
future. Lower rates of interest would result and all investment
would be intensified so that employment would increase until it
became full, at which point money wages would recover to their old
level and the original position of full employment equilibrium would
be restored. It would mean that the prices of other assets, having
quickly fallen with money wages, would be expected to rise again so
that their rates of interest (m.e.) could immediately fall and in advance of the fall of the money rate of interest.
In saying that money has a low elasticity of substitution Keynes
refers to the fact that the services it provides expand along with its
own purchasing power. Such a rise in purchasing power therefore
does not check off the desire to hold on to money to the same extent
as would a rise in the price of some other asset check off the desire
to retain that asset. The only point concerning expectations here is
the obvious one that if there is any uncertainty about the permanence
of the increase in purchasing power, then that will to some extent
check off the demand for holding money.
The low elasticity of substitution of money is given by Keynes as
one reason why large increases in the purchasing power of the money
stock may cause only a moderate reduction in the money rate of
interest.
25
Ibid., p. 235.
198 . D. G. Champernowne
value is a commodity with a low elasticity of production should lead
one to expect the money cost of wage goods, i.e., the cost of living, to
be stable. The low elasticity of production of the money commodity
would allow large fluctuations in its marginal costs in terms of wage
units, whereas the higher elasticities of production of wage goods
would not allow such large fluctuations in their marginal costs in
terms of wage units. If in fact the fluctuations in the marginal cost
of the money commodity were large in terms of wage units whereas
those in the marginal costs of wage goods were not, there would be
large fluctuations in money wage rates and hence considerable fluctuations in the marginal costs of wage goods in terms of money.
There would then be some grounds for expecting that there will be
considerable fluctuations in the money price of wage goods and the
cost of living because the money commodity has a low elasticity of
production.
In order to reach the opposite conclusion, namely, that the low
elasticity of production of the money commodity would lead one to
expect a stable cost of living, Keynes must have relied heavily on his
assumption that money wage rates are always sticky. He believed
that "the commodity, in terms of which wages are expected to be
most sticky, cannot be one whose elasticity of production is not least,
and for which the excess of carrying-costs over liquidity-premium is
not least."26 The reasons adduced for this are very difficult to discover but seem to be the following. If wages were sticky in terms of,
let us say, coal, then irrespective of the money price of coal, there
would be some unique scale of output of coal, which would equate
its marginal cost (which would be labor costs) with its price; but
there is no reason that this scale of output should be the same as
that which could be sold at that price. Hence stocks of coal would
either pile up or dwindle away until something happened to break
the link between coal prices and wages. For example, the high carrying costs of coal would force down its price when stocks became excessive, or a shortage of coal stocks would force up coal prices.
Whether this is a correct interpretation of Keynes' reasoning is
very uncertain, but it is in any case difficult to feel that Keynes really
established the case for supposing that wages would necessarily be
26
Ibid., p. 23 8.
200
D. G. Champernowne
CONCLUSION
At the end of this perusal of Keynes' various references to these
links between the economic future and the present, one is left in
some perplexity why he should have applied it to three such diverse
concepts as capital equipment, user cost, and money. To the latter
question it is indeed difficult to supply an adequate answer. But to
the question why he kept referring to the links between the economic
future and the present, the answer must be that he considered that in
our society some of these links were defective.
Keynes made it abundantly clear that there was no efficient link
between the decisions of employers how much to invest, and the
decisions of individuals how to divide their incomes between consumption and savings. He expressed his opinion that we should see
the state eventually providing this link in order to prevent heavy
unemployment. But although he did not give such a clear demonstration, he was greatly concerned also with the lack of any proper link
between employers' plans regarding capacity for production of consumption goods in the future and the future decisions of individuals
to spend on consumption goods. He realized that the lack of such a
link would lead to violent swings in expectations and activity.
Economists such as Professor Irving Fisher had written as though
each individual's decision to save now carried with it the decision
when instead to spend the money on consumption goods. Other
economists wrote as though the determination of interest rates and
of prices throughout the future was a simple matter of supply and
demand extended from present markets to a scheme of futuresmarkets covering the years ahead. But this was completely misleadIbid., p. 293. Keynes' italics. I am sorry to find that in 1936 I added
at this point in my copy the marginal note "cranky."
31 Ibid., p. 294.
80
202
D. C. Champernowne
ing. For such futures-markets exist only in rare cases and individuals
do not commit themselves years in advance in respect of their expenditure. Consequently employers have to plan in a thick fog,
enshrouding not only what each other's plans may be, but every
other aspect of the likely state of demand and supply in the distant
future.
It was because of his perception of the inefficiency of this feature
of our method of organizing production that Keynes kept returning
to the theme of the links between the economic future and the
present.
ABBA P. LERNER
204
Abba P. Lerner
Nov. 1931, p. 39 0
205
206
Abba P. Lerner
207
208
Abba P. Lerner
209
duce the rewards of the factors other than labor until costs and
prices have fallen proportionately to wages, and real wages and
employment are back again at the original level.
In the situation we have just described, total real income is greater
than in the initial position, because more men applied to the same
equipment produce more goods. There is an increase in the total real
costs of the consumption entrepreneurs exactly equal to this increase
in real income (since the incomes of the factors of production are
the costs of the entrepreneurs). Out of this extra income, some will
be saved, so that the total receipts of consumption entrepreneurs
increase (in real terms) less than their outgoings. Entrepreneurs
make losses which cause them to restrict their (output and) demand for productive resources. This goes on as long as more men are
employed than in the initial equilibrium and as long as the real
reward of the productive resources other than labor is greater than
in the initial position. These two phenomena disappear at the same
time, since the tendency to substitute labor for other productive
resources, which led to the increase in employment in the first place,
disappears just at the point where the real reward to the other productive factors has fallen in the same proportion as prices and wages.
A new equilibrium is reached only when employment has gone
back to its original level and the reward of the other resources has
fallen to its old real level. This will only be when their prices have
fallen in the same proportion as wages. As long as these have fallen
only in a smaller proportion than wages, prices will be higher than
before relatively to wages and lower than before relatively to the
reward of the other productive resources, and the disequilibrium
described will continue.
In a longer period, it will be possible to increase or decrease the
supply of productive resources other than labor by varying the application of current factors of production to their manufacture, so
that the above argument, which rests on the fixity of supply of
productive resources other than labor, would not apply. But there
will be no inducement to vary their supply since their price, determined in the longer period by their cost of production, will have
varied in just the same proportion as wages. There is therefore no
point in departing-except as a temporary mistake-from the initial
level of employment.
This does not mean that a reduction of money wages may not
210
Abba P. Lerner
2I I
212
Abba P. Lerner
2I3
cess of saving over investment by the individuals who are left with
the extra money that has been put into the society and which must
be in somebody's hands. But this is exactly balanced by the expenditure of money by those individuals who borrowed the extra
money from the monetary authority (the banks). These borrowers
were enabled by the banks to consume or to invest out of borrowed
money that was not part of their income. Insofar as they spend the
money on consumption, this constituted negative saving which has
to be subtracted from the excess saving by the hoarders. The rest
of the borrowed money is invested and provides the investment that
balances the excess saving and shows again the inevitable equality
of saving to investment. We always get back to this really very obvious if not very informative bit of arithmetic. It only appears strange
or suspicious because of the habit of looking at the saving from the
point of view of the individual who has got his income and is wondering whether to save it or not. He is naturally unable to see the
whole social process. Our suspicions should vanish when we realize
that all that the proposition says is that the excess of total income
over income earned in making consumption goods is equal to the
income earned in other ways.
What we have done now is to replace the suspect proposition
that S = I by the even more suspect proposition that it is impossible
for a society to hoard if the banks do not increase the amount of
money. Does this not imply that everything that has been said in
economic discussions about the effects of hoarding is sheer nonsense?
This is, of course, not the case. The trouble arises from a confusion of two meanings of hoarding. When people consider, say,
the deflationary effects of hoarding, they are talking sound and important sense. But if they are to use the word hoarding in the sense
we have used it, so that it indicates an excess of saving over investment, they should speak of the deflationary effects of "attempts to
hoard." These effects are of the utmost importance. They involve
a reduction of prices, of profits, of employment, of incomes, of prosperity generally, and of many concomitants of these. But they do
not involve an increase in hoarding-in our exact sense of increasing the money held-unless the amount of money is increased. It
is only saying the same thing in other words to show that an attempt
by people to save more than they invest will diminish consumption
214
Abba P. Lerner
and incomes and employment, etc., but will never succeed in making
saving greater than investment.
We see then that decisions of income receivers as between spending and saving do not affect the aggregate volume of saving but do
determine the size of both income and consumption. The difference
between them, which is the amount actually saved, is determined
by those who decide the size of I (which is equal to the excess of
income over consumption, because it is that part of income which
is not earned in making consumption goods).
If we have given the size of I, we can say that Y is determined
by the propensity to save. If we suppose that the amount people
save depends only on the size of their income, and that it increases
with the size of income, we can see that income must be at that level
where the amount people wish to save is equal to I.
As long as income is below this level people will wish to save
less than is being invested, i.e., they will want to spend on consumption goods more than is being earned in making consumption goods,
and since these two are identical this means that they will wish
to spend on consumption goods more than they are spending on
consumption goods. This will lead to increased demand and profits
in the manufacture of consumption goods, which will lead to an
expansion of employment and income until this level is reached.
People then wish to save just as much as is being invested, i.e., they
spend on consumption goods an amount that is less than their income by exactly the expenditure on ( = the earnings in the manufacture of) investment goods, i.e., they spend on consumption goods
just as much as is earned in making consumption goods, i.e., just as
much as the cost incurred in making consumption goods. There is
neither profit nor loss but equilibrium. If employment and income
had risen above the level where people wish to save just as much
as is being invested, losses would have emerged to bring incomes
and employment down again to the equilibrium level where people
wish to save just as much as is being invested. S = I. Although there
is no mechanism whereby decisions about saving bring about an
equal value of investment, which is what makes the equation suspicious, because of the long-standing habit of expecting the influences
to work from saving to investment, there is a mechanism whereby
2I
and
'200+'100='3 00.)
216
Abba P. Lerner
the efficiency of the marginal item of that type of capital good, in the
use where its installation would show the greatest possible efficiency.
The marginal efficiency of capital in general is the highest of the
marginal efficiencies of all capital goods that still remain to be made.
It should be noted that the marginal efficiency of any capital good
is described in the same way (has the same dimensions) as the rate
of interest, so that it can be measured against it. It is a percentage
of so much per annum. But it must on no account be confused with
the rate of interest. The rate of interest is the rate at which money
has to be paid for the privilege of borrowing money; or, from the
point of view of the lender, it is the rate at which one is remunerated
in money for the service of lending money.
There is, however, a certain relationship between the rate of
interest and the marginal efficiency of capital. For it will pay entrepreneurs to borrow money in order to increase the rate of construction of capital goods-which is the rate of investment-as long
as the rate of interest is less than the marginal efficiency of capital.
As the rate of investment increases, the best opportunities for investment are used up, and the marginal efficiency of capital diminishes.
This happens in two ways. As the amount of capital increases, the
expected values of the services of new capital goods fall as these
have to compete with a larger supply of existing capital goods. This
will be a very slow process since the rate at which capital is increased-the output in a short period-is small relatively to the
existing stock of capital goods. But the other way in which the
marginal efficiency falls is operative in the short period. As the rate
of investment increases, the marginal cost of making capital goods
increases, and this immediately tends to reduce the marginal efficiency of capital to the rate of interest. For each rate of interest
there is a corresponding rate of investment. This relationship is the
schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital.
The schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital is sometimes
called the demand curve for savings because the entrepreneurs,
who undertake the investment and have to obtain the funds to finance it, are conceived to obtain them from the savings of individuals
which when summed constitute the "supply" of savings. This is
important in so far as it is brought in to explain the amount of investment that takes place, and upon the amount of investment de-
2I
218
Abba P. Lerner
2I
220
Abba P. Lerner
22I
222
Abba P. Lerner
to buy other assets for money, raises the value of the other assets
and reduces the rate of interest. The reduction of the rate of interest
does the trick by making a larger rate of investment profitable.
Incomes then increase, in accordance with the propensity to consume, until a level of income and employment is reached which
induces people to save at a rate equal to the greater rate of investment. From this it follows that any objections that may be raised
against the dangers inherent in lowering the rate of interest in an
attempt to increase employment apply just as much or as little to
the policy of increasing employment by lowering wages, since that
works only via lowering the interest rate. It is not denied that there
are any dangers, but such as they are, they are inherent in any successful attempt to increase employment. To run away from these
is to refuse to be cured because that will make it possible to become
sick again.
To seek the alleviation of depression by reducing money wages,
rather than by directly reducing the rate of interest or otherwise
encouraging investment or consumption, is to abandon the high road
for a devious, dark, difficult, and unreliable path, for no better reason
than that the dangers that await one at the common destination are
more clearly seen when it is approached by the broad highway.
HE MOST STRIKING DEVELOPMENT in Keynesian economics in the last decade has been the retrogression in its general
understanding and acceptance. Ten years ago it seemed as if the
general theory of employment had almost completed the course
through which all new ideas have to pass. From being considered
223
224
Abba P. Lerner
225
226
Abba P. Lerner
transactions. That would result in lower interest rates, more investment, more earnings, more consumption and so more employment.
This argument would still not do-in the first place because the required fall in wages, prices, and incomes could be brought about
only by a long and severe depression, and in the second place because the reduction in demand for money stock would not always
lower interest rates and lower interest rates would not always result
in more investment.
w
p
~------------~N
Fig. 1
I....---~F~---..N
Fig. 2
227
228
Abba P. Lerner
229
"cutthroat competition." But the power of the wage and price administrators to raise wages and prices in the face of an excess of
supply over demand, although it is not unlimited, is great enough
to enable them to give us inflation whenever unemployment is much
less than about 7 per cent. And as the economy gradually becomes
richer and as it becomes more inured to this evil the greater becomes
the intensity of unemployment needed to stop prices from rising.
Only when unemployment exceeds this degree of intensity is the
market strong enough to overcome the power of the wage and price
administrators and induce price reductions. Such a situation is shown
in Figure 3. The operating automatic tendency, shown by the
horizontal arrows, is for employment to move not towards full employment at F (where supply is equal to demand) but toward the
price stability level of employment at P where the market forces trying to reduce prices are just able to balance the administrators' efforts
to raise them.
If monetary and fiscal measures are used only as "aids" to provide muscles to bring about quickly what the observable automatic
price movements are "tending" to achieve, what we get is only a
more effective maintenance not of full employment at F but of the
price stability level of employment at P (with about 7 per cent unemployment). The arrows now represent the effects on employment
of expansionary monetary and fiscal measures undertaken when
prices show a falling tendency, and the effects of restrictionary monetary and fiscal measures undertaken when prices show a tendency
to rise. Employment as well as the price level is stabilized, but at so
Iowa level that there emerges pressure for the direction of monetary
and fiscal policies to the different goal of a higher level of employment.
If this pressure succeeds and monetary and fiscal policies are redirected and aimed at raising employment to some point to the right
of P, this results in prices rising. The frustrations from trying to
achieve the conflicting aims of stabilizing the economy at F so as to
have full or high employment while at the same time stabilizing it
at P so as to have no inflation or deflation of prices are the basic reasons for the current retreat from Keynesianism. Meanwhile the U.S.
government seems to be aiming at a compromise point slightly to the
right of P, with unemployment at around 6 per cent and it is nat-
230
Abba P. Lerner
w
p
w
p
D
I...--p~.-~F--""N
Fig. 3
D
Ol...--P~-~F~-""N
Fig. 4
markets. The other way is to subject the more important wage and
price administrators to regulations that will make the administered
prices move in something like the way prices would move in a perfectly competitive economy. This means that the price administrators would raise the price of a product only when there is an
excess of demand over the available supply and would lower the
price of any product whose available supply significantly exceeded
the demand; they would pay as little attention to profits or losses
as is paid by the forces of demand in a perfectly competitive market. The price level-an average of the prices-would thus be
kept stable. The wage administrators would raise wages in general
at the rate that is compatible with a stable price level, raising any
particular wage by more than this only where labor was significantly
scarcer (unemployment significantly less) than in the economy as
a whole, and by less than this, or not at all, where labor is significantly
more abundant (unemployment significantly greater) than in the
economy as a whole.
231
Since the first way does not seem feasible and the second is believed to be a very nasty medicine (being easily though wrongly
identified with price control), this diagnosis and prescription is not
likely to restore the popularity of the doctor.
A contributory factor in the decline in the popularity of Keynesianism is a related failure to notice how the Keynesian less-than-full-employment-equilibrium (or disequilibrium, for this is purely a matter
of terminology) does not fit in with the equalization of the prices of
factors with the marginality conditions of neoclassical equilibrium. In
Figure 4 (which is the same as Figure 3 with some qdditional lines
and letters taken from a diagram of Patinkin'sl) the demand curve D
shows how much labor is demanded by employers who, to increase
profits, will want to increase employment whenever the marginal
value product is greater than the wage and to reduce employment
whenever it is less; the supply curve S shows how much labor the
workers are willing to provide at each real wage. Consequently, in
full employment equilibrium (represented by point M) the real
wage is equal to the marginal value product of labor and the marginal
utility of the wage is equal to the marginal disutility of labor. But if
there is less than full employment, as in the case of the price stability
level of employment OP, there is no reason for supposing either of
these equalities to hold. All we can say is that the real wage cannot be
greater than PA because then the demand for labor would be less
than OP, and that it cannot be less than PB because then the supply
of labor would then be less than OP. The real wage could be anything between PB and PA.
Keynes confused the issue by assuming that only the second equality had to be given up-the equality between the marginal utility of
the wage and the marginal disutility of labor-but that the real wage
was still equal to the marginal value product. Such a position would
be indicated by the point A on the D curve. But that shows considerable involuntary unemployment (measured by AN), while
employers are perfectly satisfied with the level of production and
employment, not wishing to employ any more people to produce
any more goods even if they could sell them at the current relationship of wages and prices. One might call this a case of unemployment without depression! One might just as well assume that the
1
Don Patinkin, Money, Interest and Prices, Row Peterson, & Co.
Evanston, Ill. 1957, p. 213.
232
Abba P. Lerner
JACOB VINER
235
240
Jacob Viner
of the classical school that in the face of strong criticism they steadfastly adhered to their position that hoarding was so abnormal a
phenomenon as not to constitute a significant contributing factor
to unemployment even during a period of severe deflation. In static
equilibrium analysis, in which perfect price flexibility is assumed and
monetary changes are abstracted from, there is no occasion for consideration of hoarding. In modern monetary theory it is generally
dealt with, with results which in kind are substantially identical with
Keynes', as a factor operating to reduce the "velocity" of money.
There has been, I believe, common agreement among economists that
when price rigidities are important hoarding could present a serious
and continuing problem, and that it is always a significant factor in
the downward phase of a short business cycle. Keynes, however, attaches great importance to it as a barrier to "full" employment at
almost all times, and apparently irrespective of the degree of flexibility of prices.
There are several reasons why "liquidity preferences" loom so
large to Keynes as a source of trouble in the economic process. He
takes it for granted that they are ordinarily so strong for the average
person in control of liquid resources that a substantial interest rate is
required to overcome them; and apparently that they cannot be overcome by any rate of interest if a still higher rate of interest is anticipated in the near future. He assigns to them the role of sole
determinant (given the amount of cash available, which he treats
ordinarily as a constant) of the rate of interest. He believes that the
marginal productivity function of capital and therefore the investment demand for capital have little elasticity. Finally he assumes in
general that nothing can satisfy liquidity preferences except that
"cash" whose quantity is one of the determinants of the interest rate.
We have almost no reliable information about the strength of
liquidity preferences under varying circumstances, and in the absence of statistical information of a genuinely relevant character discussion must be based largely on conjecture. Nevertheless, I venture
to present a series of considerations which, in the aggregate, seem to
warrant the conclusion that Keynes has grossly exaggerated the
extent to which liquidity preferences have operated in the past and
are likely to operate in the future as a barrier to "full" employment.
(a) Keynes stresses the pressure which is exercised by the expec-
Causes of Unemployment
241
tation of a rise in the interest rate on potential purchasers of securities, leading them to postpone their purchases in order to escape
a capital loss. There are, however, in every country large numbers of
investors who have been taught to buy gilt-edge securities on the
basis of their yield to maturity and to disregard the fluctuations in
their day-to-day market values. Even investors of a speculative type
are ordinarily as anxious not to miss a "low" as not to buy too high.
There are many opportunities for investment which are-or seem at
the time to be-of the "now-or-never" type. There is a widely prevalent aversion to the waste of "dead" cash.
(h) Keynes seems to exaggerate the actuarial valuation of postponement of investment during a period of anticipated rise in interest
rates. Rising interest rates are frequently associated with periods of
greater confidence in the security of the investment, as far as payment of principal and interest according to schedule are concerned;
or in the case of equity securities, with periods of more favorable
anticipations of long-run yields. Hence periods of rising interest
rates are often associated with periods of rising rather than falling
prices of securities, especially for equity securities. Keynes seems to
be in error also when he asserts that, abstracting from the risk of default on principal or interest, it will be equally profitable to hoard as
to invest at par in a long-term security paying 4 per cent if the market
interest rate is rising by 0.16 per cent per annum. In the first place,
hoarding and investment in a long-term security are not the only
alternatives. Let it be provisionally granted that hoarding and the
purchase at par of a 4 per cent long-term bond would prove equally
profitable at the end of the first year if the interest rate during that
year had risen by 0.16 per cent. The purchase at the beginning of
the year of a one-year maturity security paying anything over 0.16
per cent would then have been more profitable even if it had to be
exchanged for cash within six months, and even if the short-term
interest rate were also gradually rising by as much as 0.16 per cent
per annum. Secondly, even a purchaser of the long-term 4 per cent security would have been richer at the end of the first year than if he
had hoarded his cash, unless the security were a perpetual bond.
(c) Even if it be granted that liquidity preferences are as strong
ordinarily as Keynes indicates, their operation as a barrier to investment would necessarily be important only if it be assumed (1) that
242
Jacob Viner
liquidity preferences can be satisfied solely by the holding of noninvestment assets, and (2) that the quantity of such assets does not
automatically respond to the demand for them. Keynes takes care of
this second qualification by his assumption that the quantity of
money-in the assumed absence of a positive central monetary control-is constant. Here, indeed, he concedes more than is necessary,
for if liquidity preferences are assumed to be stronger during depressions than during periods of business expansion, then the quantity of money, under such monetary systems as have existed in the
past, varies inversely with the strength of liquidity preferences. But
he does not give adequate consideration to the first qualification.
The satisfaction of liquidity preference on the one hand and of
investment on the other are opposite phenomena only if the range
of assets which can satisfy investment demand corresponds with the
range of assets which can satisfy liquidity preferences, so that it shall
be impossible to satisfy both by the same transaction. If liquidity
preferences can be satisfied by the holding of resources which are not
identical with the "money" whose surrender satisfies investment demand, the satisfaction of the former does not necessarily entail failure
to satisfy the latter. Keynes explains liquidity preference as a wish
to retain one's resources in the form of money. There is no systematic
examination of what is to be included as "money" for this purpose,
but incidentally to his analysis of one particular form of surrender
of liquidity, namely, exchange of money for a debt, he states:
... we can draw the line between "money" and "debts" at
whatever point is most convenient for handling a particular
problem. For example, we can treat as money any command
over general purchasing power which the owner has not parted
with for a period in excess of three months, and as debt what
cannot be recovered for a longer period than this; or we can
substitute for "three months" one month or three days or three
hours or any other period; or we can exclude from money whatever is not legal tender on the spot. It is often convenient in
practice to include in money time-deposits with banks and,
occasionally, even such instruments as (e.g.) treasury bills. As
a rule, I shall ... assume that money is co-extensive with bank
deposits (p. 167, note).
From the point of view of effect on output, the reduction of any part
of variable costs is dollar for dollar of the same importance as the reduction of any other part of such costs, and it is only as against re-
PROPENSITY TO CONSUME
Mr. Keynes himself tells us that the functional relationships of
the various economic variables are more complex in fact than is
formally recognized in his analysis. Simplification of this sort is inevitable, if analysis is to proceed at all. In the case, however, of
Keynes' "propensity to consume" function, it seems to me that the
purchases of the services of the factors. What is the point in distinguishing between the cost of coal to a steel mill according as it is
bought from an outside mine or produced in its own collieries? Where
is the line to be drawn between entrepreneurs and "factors"? I am
sceptical as to whether any economists have, explicitly or by implication, excluded cost of purchased materials or depreciation of equipment through use from the costs supposed to determine supply price.
6 Because marginal costs would fall in the same proportion as average
variable costs but would be greater in amount per unit than average
variable costs.
250
Jacob Viner
Causes of Unemployment
25I
252
Jacob Viner
Comment on My 1936
Review of Keynes'
General 'Theory
[1963J
My
1936 REVIEW OF KEYNES' General Theory, here revived from the dead, no doubt had limitations of which I was then
unaware and continue to be unaware. It also had, however, some
deliberate limitations which were imposed on it by the circumstances
of its publication. It was written as part of a symposium under the
editorship of Professor Taussig. He encouraged me to include in
my contribution a paragraph or two appraising the importance and
quality of the book as a whole, but asked me aside from this to concentrate on a discussion of Keynes' theory of the causes of changes
in the volume of employment. I interpreted Keynes' theory as in
fact, whatever its intent, a theory only of the short-run determinants
in changes in employment, and kept my comments within that
limited framework. I consequently refrained from any attempt to
assess the contribution of the General Theory to policy formulation,
or to long-run analysis, or its serviceability as a foundation for
254
Jacob Viner
6 ].
260
Jacob Viner
262
Jacob Viner
[that is, I] thought that the transaction motive has as much influence
on the rate of interest as the speculative motive." What I said went
further than this: the hoarding motive was a minor force as compared to all the other motives taken together which influenced the
demand for money. Klein thought that this question had been answered "by the events of recent years." The answer, I presume, was
supplied by the statistical record of what went on in those years, and
Klein found it unnecessary to state so obvious a fact as that that
answer confirmed Keynes' position. 6 I am unfamiliar with that
record and cannot therefore contest any inferences drawn from it,
but I at least welcome the implied agreement with me that a "propensity to hoard" theory of the determination of the level of the
interest-rate structure needs supporting quantitative data.
With respect to the existence of liquid assets other than money, of
"near-money," of "half-hoards,"7 possessing in some degree "liquidity
preference" satisfying-power, aside from the question of their role in
the determination of interest rates I would continue to press the point
that the accumulation of such assets constitutes simultaneously both
a satisfaction of liquidity preference and investment, so that the two
are not, as they are in the case of "hoards," functional opposites. I
would now add that there is no fixed or stable scale of liquidity for
different classes of assets, and that depending on circumstances, as,
for example, the existence of fear of extreme inflation or of exchange
depreCiation, or the loss of confidence in the solvency of banks, the
"propensity to hoard" may become a propensity to hoard anything
except domestic money or claims to such money.
Keynes' disapproval of my attachment to the "velocity" concept as
a tool of analysis, with which Klein heartily expressed agreement, is
certainly supported by the record since the publication of the General
Theory; velocity analysis seems to have been totally abandoned by
all except one minority group of monetary theorists. I am impressed,
however, by the quality of the products of this group. I note also
that in his one endeavor to define the "money" which plays so
Lawrence R. Klein, The Keynesian Revolution, New York, 1950,
pp. 101-102.
1 Thomas Gisborne, "Accumulations of Capital," Quarterly Review,
LXXII ( I 847), 206-23 I, an article which contains much of interest
for the history of liquidity preference theorizing, makes pertinent use
of this tenn.
PART THREE
The Forties
The Sixties
GOTTFRIED HABERLER
I SHALL CONPINB MYSELF in this essay to the purely scientific content of The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and
Money, the most famous of Keynes' economic works, whose tenth
anniversary unhappily coincided with the death of its author. In the
light of ten years of intense and voluminous discussion, what remains of the Keynesian revolution, of the New Economics? What
will be the verdict of a historian of economic thought one hundred
years hence? There is no doubt Keynes stirred the stale economic frog
pond to its depth. He has kept economists in a state of agitation for
the last ten years, and probably for many years to come. The brilliance of his style, the versatility, flexibility, incredible quickness,
and fecundity of his mind, the many-sidedness of his intellectual
interests, the sharpness of his wit, in one word the fullness of his
personality, was bound to fascinate scores of people in and outside
the economic profession. Only a dullard or narrow-minded fanatic
could fail to be moved to admiration by Keynes' genius. But the
novelty and validity of the propositions which constitute his system
are a different matter altogether-quite independent of the challenging way in which he pronounced them, of the psychological stimulus
afforded by his bold attack on widely accepted modes of thought, of
much needed change in emphasis which we owe to his book, and of
the wisdom Cor unwisdom) of his policy recommendations. Apart
from a few observations on alleged policy implications of the General
Theory at the end of this paper, we shall be concerned exclusively
with the logical content of the system.
270
Gottfried Haberler
2
Let us look now into the content of the system. We shall first examine the individual relationships ("functions" or "propensities") of
which it is composed, and then the working of the system as a whole.
Little need be said about the marginal efficiency of capital or
demand schedule for capital, because here Keynes follows conventional lines. Investment is a decreasing function of the rate of
interest. In the post-Keynesian, Keynes-inspired literature, it has
been more and more questioned whether the rate of interest is really
such an important factor; in other words, the view has gained ground
that the demand curve for capital may be fairly inelastic with respect
to the rate of interest. But this is not the position of the General
Theory, at least not of its theoretical skeleton, although Keynes in
obiter dicta and policy recommendations frequently accepted openly
or by implication the theory of lacking investment opportunities.
The liquidity preference theory of the rate of interest appeared
very unorthodox and novel in 1936. The ensuing discussion has made
it clear, however, that the only innovation is the assumed relationship
between the rate of interest and hoarding, i.e., money held for
speculative purposes (M2 ) or idle deposits. (Assuming that the velocity of circulation of money, of M I , remains the same, or if it too
varies with the rate of interest, the proposition implies that the
velocity of the total money stock (MI +M 2 ) also is positively correlated with the rate of interest.)4 The older monetary theory as4
272
Gottfried Haberler
Let us turn now to the interaction of the various parts and the
working of the system as a whole. Even if it were true that all the
materials and tools used by Keynes had been known and used before
and that he did not improve them-is it not true that with their help
he constructed an entirely new theoretical structure?
His demonstration that unemployment is possible in equilibrium,
ties, in other words, between (a) money and (b) near-money (i.e.,
money's closest substitute). For that very limited choice (i.e., the decision whether to hold one's idle funds in cash or short-term securities) the short-term rate of interest may indeed be an important
factor. But that choice is an unimportant detail as far as expenditures
on goods and the volume of output and employment are concerned.
And any empirical regularities found with respect to this detail cannot be regarded as a verification of the liquidity preference theorem in
a rougher model which does not distinguish a whole scale of different
assets with small gradations in liquidity, but only two or three types
of assets.
General Theory.
If flexible wages-"thoroughgoing competition between wage earners" (in Pigou's words)-are assumed, the situation is radically
changedY Obviously, under-employment equilibrium with flexible
wages is impossible-wages and prices must then fall continuously,
Unfortunately, there is much of this oversimplified version in the
General Theory itself, especially in the three summarizing chapters in
Book I. A sociology of the formation of scientific schools will attribute much importance to this fact. It helped to crystallize a compact group of followers by repelling and annoying some readers and
attracting others.
11 The crucial importance of wage rigidity in the Keynesian system has
been emphasized by many critics, most systematically perhaps by
Franco Modigliani in his remarkable article "Liquidity Preference
and the Theory of Interest and Money," Ee, January, 1944.
10
12
280
Gottfried Haberler
5
The gist of the foregoing discussion may be brieBy restated from
a different point of view or rather (for it amounts to nothing more)
in terms of a different economic jargon. I take Paul Sweezy's brilliant obituary note on Keynes as my text. 22 Sweezy regards as the
basis of the Keynesian system, and of Keynes' criticism of classical
economics, the "Bat rejection and denial of what has come to be
known as Say's Law of Markets which, despite all assertions to the
contrary by orthodox apologists, did run like a red thread through
the entire body of classical and neoclassical theory. It is almost impossible to exaggerate either the hold which Say's Law exercised
on professional economists or its importance as an obstacle to realistic
analysis. The Keynesian attacks, though they appear to be directed
If the elasticity of demand is not unity, we get a much more complicated situation, which cannot be discussed here. But much of the
argument could be adapted to fit that case.
21 It is true, Keynes calls such influences "roundabout repercussions"
(p. 257) and criticizes older writers for assuming a "direct" effect
of wage reductions on employment. But, as I pointed out in my
Prosperity and Depression (2nd or later editions, p. 241), what to
call direct or indirect is a purely terminological question. The most
direct effect imaginable Keynes calls "roundabout" because, by definition of the terms, it must imply a change in the propensity to consume or in the marginal efficiency of capital.
22 Science and Society, Vol. X, 1946, pp. 396-406. See also Part One
above.
20
282
Gottfried Haberler
21
7
What has been said in these pages is not intended to detract from
Keynes' claim to subjective originality or to belittle his many genuine and ingenious innovations, both in substance and emphasis, or
to play down the obvious fact that the General Theory has exerted
a tremendously stimulating influence on economic thinking. Not
only did Keynes inspire a large and growing group of enthusiastic
and highly competent followers, especially among the younger generation of economists, but he also spurred on to clarifying and creative work many of those who at first received the General Theory
with suspicion and skepticism. Keynes forced them to think through
things which they used to leave in an ambiguous twilight, and to
draw from accepted premises conclusions of which they were unaware or which they left discreetly unexpressed. A classical treatise
like Pigou's monumental work, Equilibrium and Employment (which
is so much more general than the General Theory that the latter by
comparison appears as a very special case),34 would never have been
written without the Keynesian challenge, although it is not in contradiction to, but rather constitutes a clarification of, Pigou's own
pre-Keynesian, "classical" position.
398-40 I. Professor Hicks seems substantially to accept Pigou's conclusions, although he finds them "sour."
S4 The superiority of Pigou's great work has been recognized by so
Keynesian a critic as N. Kaldor (EJ, December, 1941). It is a pity
that another work of outstanding originality and scholarship which
was stimulated by Keynes' challenge, viz. A. W. Marget's The
Theory of General Prices (1938-42), has not yet exerted the influence which it should have.
290
Gottfried Haberler
Following Hicks, many writers see the difference between the Keynesian and the "classical" system in the shape of the liquidity functionthe "classical" writers assuming that it is inelastic with respect to the
rate of interest; in other words, that the velocity of circulation of
money is constant (or an exogenous variable). This does not seem to
me a very important difference and it is not correct that nobody before
Keynes had suspected that the velocity of circulation of money may be
influenced, among other things, by the rate of interest.
292
Gottfried Haberler
Pigou relates (op. cit. p. 65) that "when I wrote my Employment and
Equilibrium in 1942 and again when I revised it recently, I had not
read the General Theory for some time and did not realize how
closely my systems of equations conform with the scheme of his
analysis."
It is, however, quite safe to say, it seems to me, that Pigou would
not have written his Employment and Equilibrium without the
Keynesian challenge. But it is equally clear that the new book, far
from contradicting classical theory, constitutes a clarification and
elaboration of Pigou's own pre-Keynesian "classical" position-if I
may repeat what I said in the earlier article.
12
PAUL M. SWEEZY
KEYNES,
300
Paul M. Sweezy
apologists, did run like a red thread through the entire body of classical and neoclassical theory. It is almost impossible to exaggerate
either the hold which Say's Law exercised on professional economists or its importance as an obstacle to realistic analysis. The
Keynesian attacks, though they appear to be directed against a variety
of specific theories, all fall to the ground if the validity of Say's Law
is assumed.
Having once got hold of the essential truth that Say's Law is a
fraud and a delusion, Keynes was obliged to search the neoclassical
theoretical structure from top to bottom to separate those propositions
which depend upon it from those which are valid regardless of its
truth or falsity. The result of this search, as it appears in the General
Theory, is almost incomprehensible to anyone but an adept in neoclassical economics. As Keynes himself says in the Preface, "the
composition of this book has been for the author a long struggle of
escape, and so must the reading of it be for most readers if the author's assault upon them is to be successful"-obviously implying
that he expects the readers to have the same type of training and the
same general background as his own. And then he adds, with refreshing candor, "the ideas which are here expressed so laboriously
are extremely simple and should be obvious. The difficulty lies, not
in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones, which ramify, for
those brought up as most of us have been, into every comer of our
minds."
Keynes undoubtedly exaggemtes the simplicity of his own contribution-it is noteworthy that pride in theoretical virtuosity was
utterly foreign to his nature-but I think that almost all teachers
will agree that it is easier to get his essential ideas across to a beginner than to a student who has already been steeped in the doctrines of the neoclassical school. Historians fifty years from now may
record that Keynes' greatest achievement was the liberation of AngloAmerican economics from a tyrannical dogma, and they may even
conclude that this was essentially a work of negation unmatched by
comparable positive achievements. Even, however, if Keynes were
other person. . . . Productions are always bought by productions, or
by services; money is only the medium by which the exchange is
effected." Principles of Political Economy (Gonner ed.), p. 273
and 275.
301
to receive credit for nothing else (which is most unlikely) his title to
fame would be secure. He opened up new vistas and new pathways
to a whole generation of economists; he will justly share the credit
for their accomplishments. 4
I have tried to show that the opportunity to which Keynes responded was essentially a crisis in traditional economics, a crisis
which was both accentuated and laid bare by the Great Depression.
He was able to demonstrate that his fellow economists, by their unthinking acceptance of Say's Law, were in effect asserting the impossibility of what was actually happening. 5 From this starting point
he was able to go on to a penetrating analysis of the capitalist economy which shows that depression and unemployment far from being
impossible, are the norms to which that economy tends, and which
explodes once and for all the myth of a harmony between private and
public interests which was the cornerstone of nineteenth century
liberalism. But Keynes stopped here in his critique of existing society.
Our troubles, he believed, are due to a failure of intelligence and
not to the breakdown of a social system; "the problem of want and
poverty and the economic struggle between classes and nations,"
he wrote in 193 I, "is nothing but a frightful muddle, a transitory
and unnecessary muddle."6
That Keynes held this view was, of course, no accident. He could
reject Say's Law and the economic conclusions based on it because
Probably only those who (like the present writer) were trained in
the academic tradition of economic thinking in the period before
1936 can fully ap'preciate the sense of liberation and the intellectual
stimulus which the General Theory immediately produced among
younger teachers and students in all the leading British and American
universities.
6 Apologists for the orthodox view are always ready with quotations to
prove that economists were never such fools as this would imply.
Keynes' answer, I think, is correct and convincing: "Contemporary
thought," he wrote, "is still deeply steeped in the notion that if
people do not spend their money in one way they will spend it in
another. Post-war economists seldom, indeed, succeed in maintaining
this standpoint consistently; for their thought to-day is too much
permeated with the contrary tendency and with facts of experience
too obviously inconsistent with their former view. But they have not
drawn sufficiently far-reaching consequences; and have not revised
their fundamental theory." General Theory, p. 20.
6 Essays in Persuasion, p. vii.
4
302
Paul M. Sweezy
Theory, p. 3 2
I have tried to provide such a review in The Theory of Capitalist
Development (1942).
9 Marx remarked, in connection with the passage from Ricardo quoted
in note 3 above, that "this is the childish babbling of a Say, but unworthy of Ricardo." Theorien -aber den Mehrwert, Vol. 1 I, pt. 2,
P277
10 See The Theory of Capitalist Development, Ch. IX: "The Breakdown
Controversy."
8
Such a canvassing of Keynes' writings for light on the long-run determinants of the inducement to invest is reported on by Alan
Sweezy, "Declining Investment Opportunity," in S. E. Harris, ed.,
The New Economics, Knopf, New York, 1947, pp. 425 ff.
310
Paul M. Sweezy
pected that his work (Maturity and Stagnation in American Capitalism, Oxford, 1952) would have been greeted with intense interest
as (1) the first full-scale welding together of the two great theoretical advances of the recent past-the theory of noncompetitive
markets on the micro level and the theory of income and employment
on the macro level-and (2) the only serious effort since Hansen
and Schumpeter to solve the mystery of the thirties. In fact, however, nothing of the sort happened. Steindl's book was greeted with
resounding silence; and I would guess that today, ten years after its
publication, a majority of the U.S. economics profession doesn't even
know of its existence. It seems quite safe to say that in the whole
history of economic thought there is not another instance of so
important a work being so completely neglected. Only Paul Baran
gave it its due, and the Marxist orientation of his Political Economy
of Growth (Monthly Review, New York, 1957) acted, as always,
to insure that this extremely important work would get the same
reception from the profession that Steindl's had already received.
Why was Steindl's Maturity and Stagnation treated this way? In
one sense, the answer is obvious. It was published in 1952, in the
middle of the Korean War boom and after more than a decade of
almost continuous full or near-full employment. To bourgeois
economists, stagnation seemed like ancient history, and they just
weren't interested.
But of course this is only the superficial aspect of the matter. What
really needs explaining is why economists are so completely dominated by the moment, how it could happen that a problem which
had been so hotly debated within the lifetime of all the economists
then alive could have been so quickly forgotten, why a serious attempt to advance their own theories should fail to arouse their purely
scientific interest.
I suggest that the explanation must be sought along two main
lines. First, there is the natural aversion of the ideological champions
of capitalism to a theory with profoundly disturbing implications for
the stability and even viability of the system. This aversion was, of
course, nothing new, and it played a big part in determining attitudes toward Keynes and the General Theory. But during the
1930'S it was impossible to deny or ignore capitalism's troubles. In the
early 1950'S, it was easy.
Second and more basic, there is the deeply ingrained un- and
anti-historical core alike of classical political economy and of neoclassical economics. Advanced capitalism, as it existed in Britain
in the nineteenth century and later in a handful of European and
North American countries, was and is looked upon as the end
product of economic evolution. The focus of economic theory is
this system's tendencies to equilibrium (or disequilibrium) and its
short-run Huctuations. No genuine trends-in Marxian terminology
no "laws of motion"-are conceded to exist, still less subjected to
analysis. Keynes remained strictly within this tradition, the only
difference being that he made no effort to dress up capitalist equilibria as ideal or desirable states; and Keynes' followers have also remained within it. Steindl's work, in contrast, is basically an attempt
to work out a theory of the evolution of advanced (monopoly)
capitalism. As such it is entirely alien to the whole orthodox tradition, and this in spite of the fact that Steindl's conceptual framework, like Kalecki's, is couched in terms made familiar by the
Keynesians on the one hand and the noncompetitive market theorists
on the other. The truth is that the orthodox economists, including
the Keynesians, were not equipped to understand what Steindl was
trying to do and had no standards by which to judge it. 1
It might be objected that the vogue of economic development in
the postwar period contradicts the foregoing analysis. With academic
curricula stuffed with courses on development, and textbooks and
treatises on the subject adorning every publisher's catalogue, how
can it be said that the established profession is not interested in historic trends, "laws of motion," and so on? The answer is simple. The
way bourgeois economics treats development is a connrmation of the
analysis, not a refutation. The subject is always (so far as I am
7
3I 2
Paul M. Sweezy
This is excellently symbolized by the way his remark, so contemptuous of history, that "in the long run we are all dead" is quoted ad
nauseam as a piece of profound wisdom.
9 Capital,
10
PAUL A. SAMUELSON
31 5
320
Paul A. Samuelson
321
322
Paul A. Samuelson
words like these resemble the opportunistic lip service paid in much
recent social legislation to individual freedom and private enterprise.
The following quotations show how far from a radical was this
urbane and cosmopolitan provincial English liberal:
How can I accept [the communistic] doctrine which sets up
as its bible, above and beyond criticism, an obsolete economic
textbook which I know to be not only scientifically erroneous
but without interest or application for the modern world? How
can I adopt a creed which, preferring the mud to the fish, exalts
the boorish proletariat above the bourgeois and intelligentsia
who, with all their faults, are the quality of life and surely carry
the seeds of all human advancement. Even if we need a religion, how can we find it in the turbid rubbish of the Red
bookshops? It is hard for an educated, decent, intelligent son of
Western Europe to find his ideals here, unless he has first
suffered some strange and horrid process of conversion which
has changed all his values ....
So, now that the deeds are done and there is no going back,
I should like to give Russia her chance; to help and not to
hinder. For how much rather, even after allowing for everything, if I were a Russian, would I contribute my quota of
activity to Soviet Russia than to Tsarist Russia. 7
Nothing that I can find in Keynes' later writings shows any significant changes in his underlying philosophy. As a result of the
Great Depression, he becomes increasingly impatient with what he
regards as the stupidity of businessmen who do not realize how
much their views toward reform harm their own true long-run interests. But that is all.
With respect to international cooperation and autonomy of national policies, Keynes did undergo some changes in belief. The
depression accentuated his post-World War I pessimism concerning
the advisability of England or any other country's leaving itself to
the mercy of the international gold standard. But in the last half
dozen years, he began to pin his hopes on intelligent, concerted,
multilateral cooperation, with, however, the important proviso that
each nation should rarely be forced to adjust her economy by deflationary means.
7J.
of "new
money"
Since the General Theory, there has grown up a fascination with exponential rates of growth of the Harrod-Domar and J. Robinson type,
and which Sir Dennis Robertson had experimented with in the
1920'S. Some later remarks touch on these matters but I shall not
here attempt a survey of this area.
I am omitting in this brief survey an important post-I936 development: the analysis of liquidity and general asset preference in tenus
of attitudes toward uncertainty and probability distributions, associated with the writings of J. Marschak, J. R. Hicks, J. Robinson, H.
Markowitz, J. Tobin, F. Modigliani, Musgrave-Domar, A. C. Hart,
L. J. Savage, M. Richter, H. Houthakker, P. Cootner, and others.
340 Paul
A. Samuelson
volves both supply and demand and all kinds of institutional elements, is itself a slippery concept and we do not explain much by
using it. But the first duty of an economist is to describe correctly
what is out there: a valid description without a deeper explanation is
worth a thousand times more than a clever explanation of nonexistent
facts.
How can one get a better Phillips Curve? Conservatives say,
"Treat labor rough. Legislate and prosecute. Bargain hard. And run
a low-pressure economy in the hope that keeping unemployment
high will reduce price pressure and perhaps shift the Phillips Curve
itself gradually downward. And if that doesn't materialize, forego
high employment." Radicals say, "Use direct price and wage controls. Don't believe that these are inefficient or will soon become inefficient. Don't believe that these involve undue interferences with
natural freedom. Or, if they do involve some of these various evils,
still this is the cost we must pay for reasonable prosperity and stability." Optimists in between say, "Be clever. Think up new devices
which preserve freedom, prosperity, and price stability." The late
Sumner Slichter said: "If some price creep is the price we must pay
for growth and prosperity, and perhaps it often is, then it is the lesser
evil to pay this price; nor is it true that every price creep must tum
into a trot."
After looking at Dutch, Swedish, British, Italian, German, Canadian, and American experience, I leave all this as an open question. 4
Bent Hansen, A Study in the Theory of Inflation, ( I 95 I) put valuable emphasis on the interactions between demands in factor and
commodity markets. When E. S. Phelps pointed out to me the omission of continental names in this survey, I had no answer to give
him. Had I been reviewing econometric investigations since Keynes,
names like that of Jan Tinbergen would have received attention.
344 . Paul
A. Samuelson
propensity of profit receivers to save a larger fraction of their incremental incomes than do poor wage receivers. Finally, the Keynesian schedule of the marginal efficiency of investment is assumed to
be vertical and subject to purely autonomous shiftings. There is
nothing in this that a typical Keynesian would want to quarrel with,
although many Keynesians would consider it more realistic to suppose that a point on the marginal efficiency schedule is a function of
such variables as capital stock, credit availability, income levels and
growth, and of profit and interest rates, and internal cash Hows.
The new element in Kaldor is the implicit or explicit behavior
equation which says that the aggregate of profit or the ratio of profit
to income can be expected to fall so long as actual employment is less
than full employment. For brevity, I write down the Kaldor system
in two symbolic equations, involving autonomous investment, let);
desired saving S; the actual level of income and employment, Y, and
the full-employment level Y*; the ratio of profits to income, 7T=
profit/income, which is of course r-(wage bill/income).
(r) S(Y,7T)=I(t),
where oS/oY>o and OS/07T>O
d7T
(2) dt =K(Y-Y*),
SUPPLEMENTAL REFERENCES
J. S. Duesenberry, Income, Savings, and the Theory of Consumer
Behavior (1949).
R. Eisner, "On Growth Models and the Neoclassical Resurgence"
Economic Journal (1958); James Tobin, "Reply to Professor
Eisner" Economic Journal (1959); Robert Solow "Is Factor
Substitution a Crime, and if so, How Bad? Reply to Professor
Eisner" Economic Journal (1959).
M. Friedman, A Theory of the Consumption Function (1957).
R. M. Goodwin "The Business Cycle as a Self-Sustaining Oscillation" Econometrica (1949); and "The Nonlinear Accelerator
and the Persistence of Business Cycles" Econometrica (1951);
see also Chapter 22 of A. H. Hansen, Business Cycles and
National Income (1951).
R. F. Kahn, "Exercises in the Analysis of Growth," Oxford Economic Papers (1959).
N. Kaldor, "Alternative Theories of Distribution," Review of Economic Studies (1955-56); Essays on Economic Stability and
Growth (1960); Essays on Value and Distribution (1960); Essays on Economic Policy (1962).
S. Kuznets, National Income: A Summary of Findings (1946).
Franco Modigliani (and Albert Ando), "The 'Life Cycle' Hypothesis
of Saving," American Economic Review (March 1963) discusses and gives references to earlier work by R. Brumberg and
Modigliani, and by Modigliani.
L. Pasinetti, "Rate of Profit and Income Distribution in Relation to
the Rate of Economic Growth" Review of Economic Studies
(1962).
Don Patinkin, Money, Interest, and Prices (1956) gives references
to earlier work by himself, Lange, and Pigou.
A. W. Phillips, "The Relations Between Unemployment and the
Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom
1861-1957," Economica (1958),